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Operations Research

2,207 missions · 1,076 completed

The discipline of applying mathematical analysis to complex decision problems in operations: allocating scarce resources, scheduling, routing, inventory, and the design of service and production systems. Drawing on mathematical programming, stochastic modeling, queueing, simulation, and game-theoretic reasoning, it seeks policies that perform provably well in systems shaped by constraints, congestion, and uncertainty.

Missions

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Machine LearningOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic First- and Zeroth-Order Methods for Nonconvex Stochastic Programming 2: The Randomized Stochastic Gradient-Free Method with Gaussian Smoothing Bounds (1/L)E‖∇f(x_R)‖² for Nonconvex fResearch Paper

Motivation

Many optimization problems in simulation-based design, reinforcement learning and machine learning can be evaluated but not differentiated. Their objective is an expectation f(x)=E[F(x,ξ)]f(x) = \mathbb E[F(x,\xi)]f(x)=E[F(x,ξ)] that can only be sampled through noisy function values F(x,ξ)F(x,\xi)F(x,ξ). Gradients may be unavailable because the model is a black box, a simulator, or a legacy code. Methods for this setting are called zeroth-order or derivative-free stochastic methods. The objective fff is often nonconvex, so the realistic target is an approximately stationary point, ∥∇f(x)∥2≤ϵ\|\nabla f(x)\|^2 \le \epsilon∥∇f(x)∥2≤ϵ, not a global minimizer.

Ghadimi and Lan (arXiv:1309.5549; SIAM J. Optim. 23(4), 2013) gave the first complexity bounds for stochastic zeroth-order methods on nonconvex problems. Their randomized stochastic gradient free (RSGF) method combines two ingredients. The first is the Gaussian smoothing and random finite-difference estimator of Nesterov and Spokoiny (Found. Comput. Math. 17, 2017; preprint 2011). The second is a randomized stopping rule that outputs an iterate chosen at random along the trajectory. The resulting bound has become the standard reference point for derivative-free nonconvex stochastic optimization.

Timeline:

  • 1952: Kiefer and Wolfowitz introduce finite-difference stochastic approximation.
  • 2011: Nesterov and Spokoiny analyze Gaussian random gradient-free oracles for convex and deterministic nonconvex problems.
  • 2013: Ghadimi and Lan prove the nonconvex stochastic rate of the RSGF method (Theorem 3.2) and its O(n/ϵ2)O(n/\epsilon^2)O(n/ϵ2) complexity (Corollary 3.3).

Setting

Let Rn\mathbb R^nRn be Euclidean space and let ξ\xiξ be a random vector with distribution PPP on a measurable space Ξ\XiΞ. The problem is

f∗:=inf⁡x∈Rn{f(x):=∫ΞF(x,ξ) dP(ξ)}.(3.1)f^* := \inf_{x\in\mathbb R^n}\Big\{ f(x) := \int_\Xi F(x,\xi)\,dP(\xi) \Big\}. \tag{3.1}f∗:=x∈Rninf​{f(x):=∫Ξ​F(x,ξ)dP(ξ)}.(3.1)

The sample functions F(⋅,ξ)F(\cdot,\xi)F(⋅,ξ) lie in CL1,1(Rn)\mathcal C^{1,1}_L(\mathbb R^n)CL1,1​(Rn) almost surely: they are differentiable, and their gradients are LLL-Lipschitz. Two assumptions describe the noise. Assumption A1 concerns the first-order oracle G(x,ξ)=∇xF(x,ξ)G(x,\xi) = \nabla_x F(x,\xi)G(x,ξ)=∇x​F(x,ξ): it is unbiased, E[G(x,ξ)]=∇f(x)\mathbb E[G(x,\xi)] = \nabla f(x)E[G(x,ξ)]=∇f(x), and has variance at most σ2\sigma^2σ2. Assumption A3 says the zeroth-order oracle is unbiased, E[F(x,ξ)]=f(x)\mathbb E[F(x,\xi)] = f(x)E[F(x,ξ)]=f(x).

For a smoothing parameter μ>0\mu > 0μ>0 and an nnn-dimensional standard Gaussian vector uuu, the Gaussian smoothing of fff is fμ(x)=Eu[f(x+μu)]f_\mu(x) = \mathbb E_u[f(x+\mu u)]fμ​(x)=Eu​[f(x+μu)] (3.3). The RSGF method starts from x1x_1x1​ and uses stepsizes γk\gamma_kγk​. At step kkk it draws a fresh sample ξk\xi_kξk​ and a fresh Gaussian direction uku_kuk​, forms the zeroth-order estimator

Gμ(xk,ξk,uk)=F(xk+μuk,ξk)−F(xk,ξk)μ uk,(3.12)G_\mu(x_k,\xi_k,u_k) = \frac{F(x_k+\mu u_k,\xi_k) - F(x_k,\xi_k)}{\mu}\,u_k, \tag{3.12}Gμ​(xk​,ξk​,uk​)=μF(xk​+μuk​,ξk​)−F(xk​,ξk​)​uk​,(3.12)

and sets xk+1=xk−γkGμ(xk,ξk,uk)x_{k+1} = x_k - \gamma_k G_\mu(x_k,\xi_k,u_k)xk+1​=xk​−γk​Gμ​(xk​,ξk​,uk​) (3.13). The output is xRx_RxR​, where the random iteration count R∈{1,…,N}R \in \{1,\dots,N\}R∈{1,…,N} has the probability mass function

PR(k)=γk−2L(n+4)γk2∑j=1N[γj−2L(n+4)γj2].(3.15)P_R(k) = \frac{\gamma_k - 2L(n+4)\gamma_k^2}{\sum_{j=1}^N[\gamma_j - 2L(n+4)\gamma_j^2]}. \tag{3.15}PR​(k)=∑j=1N​[γj​−2L(n+4)γj2​]γk​−2L(n+4)γk2​​.(3.15)

In the Lean development, fff is objective P F, GμG_\muGμ​ is szoGrad (the published RandomGradFree.Shared.oracle applied to F(⋅,ξ)F(\cdot,\xi)F(⋅,ξ)), and fμf_\mufμ​ is the published RandomGradFree.Shared.smoothing. The smoothing parameter is μs, because μ names the probability measure.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2 a)

Let 0<γk<1/[2(n+4)L]0 < \gamma_k < 1/[2(n+4)L]0<γk​<1/[2(n+4)L] for k=1,…,Nk = 1,\dots,Nk=1,…,N, with N≥1N \ge 1N≥1, and let Df2=2(f(x1)−f∗)/LD_f^2 = 2(f(x_1)-f^*)/LDf2​=2(f(x1​)−f∗)/L. Then

1L E∥∇f(xR)∥2≤Df2+2μ2(n+4)(1+L(n+4)2∑k=1N(γk4+Lγk2))+2(n+4)σ2∑k=1Nγk2∑k=1N[γk−2L(n+4)γk2].(3.16)\frac1L\,\mathbb E\|\nabla f(x_R)\|^2 \le \frac{D_f^2 + 2\mu^2(n+4)\big(1 + L(n+4)^2\sum_{k=1}^N(\frac{\gamma_k}{4} + L\gamma_k^2)\big) + 2(n+4)\sigma^2\sum_{k=1}^N\gamma_k^2}{\sum_{k=1}^N[\gamma_k - 2L(n+4)\gamma_k^2]}. \tag{3.16}L1​E∥∇f(xR​)∥2≤∑k=1N​[γk​−2L(n+4)γk2​]Df2​+2μ2(n+4)(1+L(n+4)2∑k=1N​(4γk​​+Lγk2​))+2(n+4)σ2∑k=1N​γk2​​.(3.16)

The stepsizes are left free, so every stepsize policy specializes the goal.

Companions

  • Theorem 3.2 b), (3.17): for convex fff with a minimizer x∗x^*x∗, the bound on E[f(xR)−f∗]\mathbb E[f(x_R) - f^*]E[f(xR​)−f∗].
  • Corollary 3.3, (3.26): for the constant stepsizes (3.24) and μ≤Df/((n+4)2N)\mu \le D_f/((n+4)\sqrt{2N})μ≤Df​/((n+4)2N​),
1L E∥∇f(xR)∥2≤12(n+4)LDf2N+4σn+4N(D~+Df2D~).\frac1L\,\mathbb E\|\nabla f(x_R)\|^2 \le \frac{12(n+4)LD_f^2}{N} + \frac{4\sigma\sqrt{n+4}}{\sqrt N}\Big(\tilde D + \frac{D_f^2}{\tilde D}\Big).L1​E∥∇f(xR​)∥2≤N12(n+4)LDf2​​+N​4σn+4​​(D~+D~Df2​​).

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's proof.

  • Properties of the smoothing. These are Theorem 3.1 a)–c): fμf_\mufμ​ has an LLL-Lipschitz gradient given by (3.4), ∣fμ−f∣≤μ22Ln|f_\mu - f| \le \frac{\mu^2}{2}Ln∣fμ​−f∣≤2μ2​Ln (3.5), the gradient bound (3.6), and the second-moment bound (3.7). Three of these are already on the platform and are referenced. Two consequences follow, (3.9) and (3.11).
  • Unbiasedness, (3.14): the estimator GμG_\muGμ​ is unbiased for ∇fμ\nabla f_\mu∇fμ​.
  • The proof chain of Theorem 3.2. The pathwise descent inequality (3.19), the martingale identity (3.20) and the conditional second-moment bound (3.21) combine into the weighted bound (3.23). The RRR-weighting identity converts (3.23) into (3.16).

Significance

The theorem shows that function values alone suffice to find approximately stationary points of nonconvex stochastic programs. The price is a factor of the dimension nnn: with constant stepsizes the RSGF method needs O(n/ϵ2)O(n/\epsilon^2)O(n/ϵ2) iterations, against O(1/ϵ2)O(1/\epsilon^2)O(1/ϵ2) for the first-order RSG method. The randomized output rule and the analysis through fμf_\mufμ​ are reused in later zeroth-order methods, including two-phase variants, mirror-descent variants and variance-reduced schemes.

The result is proved in the paper. It is not formalized anywhere known to this mission. The platform already holds parts of the Gaussian-smoothing theory from the Nesterov–Spokoiny series, but only for convex problems with exact function values. This mission adds:

  • the nonconvex form of the second-moment bound (3.7);
  • the gradient-approximation bound (3.6);
  • the stochastic sampling model with conditional expectations;
  • the first machine-checkable statement of a nonconvex stochastic zeroth-order rate.

Difficulty

The first idea is to treat the RSGF method as the first-order RSG method run on fμf_\mufμ​ with the unbiased estimator GμG_\muGμ​, and to quote the RSG bound. This fails, because the variance E∥Gμ−∇fμ∥2\mathbb E\|G_\mu - \nabla f_\mu\|^2E∥Gμ​−∇fμ​∥2 has no uniform bound: by (3.7) it grows with ∥∇f(xk)∥2\|\nabla f(x_k)\|^2∥∇f(xk​)∥2 at the random iterate. The analysis has to carry that term along and absorb it into the left side, which is where the weights γk−2L(n+4)γk2\gamma_k - 2L(n+4)\gamma_k^2γk​−2L(n+4)γk2​ come from. It must also move between ∇fμ\nabla f_\mu∇fμ​ and ∇f\nabla f∇f through (3.6) at a cost polynomial in nnn.

On the formal side, three obstacles stand out.

  • The Gaussian moment estimates behind (3.6) and (3.7) need bounds on E∥u∥p\mathbb E\|u\|^pE∥u∥p up to p=6p = 6p=6 for a standard Gaussian vector.
  • Conditional expectations with respect to σ(ζ[k−1])\sigma(\zeta_{[k-1]})σ(ζ[k−1]​) are taken at random iterates that depend on the past, so independence of the fresh samples must be used carefully.
  • Integrability must be established for every quantity before expectations can be manipulated.

Formalization scope

  • Space. Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). The constants (n+3)(n+3)(n+3), (n+4)(n+4)(n+4), (n+6)(n+6)(n+6) use the same natural number nnn. The Gaussian is Mathlib's stdGaussian.
  • Iterates. They are indexed from 111, and RRR takes values in {1,…,N}\{1,\dots,N\}{1,…,N}.
  • Optimal values. f∗f^*f∗ is the infimum of fff (IsGLB), with fff bounded below. The paper's fμ∗:=min⁡fμf^*_\mu := \min f_\mufμ∗​:=minfμ​ (3.10) is read as an infimum, since the minimum need not be attained.
  • Smoothness. F(⋅,ξ)∈CL1,1F(\cdot,\xi) \in \mathcal C^{1,1}_LF(⋅,ξ)∈CL1,1​ is required for PPP-almost every ξ\xiξ, as on the page.
  • Assumption A1 is stated at every point xxx for G=∇xFG = \nabla_x FG=∇x​F.
  • Assumption A3 is the definition of fff, with F(x,⋅)F(x,\cdot)F(x,⋅) integrable.

The following are explicit additions; the paper leaves them implicit.

  • Sampling. The samples ξk∼P\xi_k \sim Pξk​∼P and uk∼N(0,In)u_k \sim \mathcal N(0,I_n)uk​∼N(0,In​) are measurable and mutually independent, and RRR is independent of all of them.
  • Measurability and integrability. FFF is jointly measurable, and ∇xF(x,⋅)\nabla_x F(x,\cdot)∇x​F(x,⋅) is integrable.
  • Stepsizes are positive.
  • Corollary 3.3 assumes σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0.

Every conclusion about an expectation also asserts the integrability of its integrand. A non-integrable function has Lean integral 000, so a bound without this conjunct could hold for the wrong reason.

The goal is stated about the objects of the method only: FFF, PPP, fff, the run (3.12)–(3.13), RRR and the constants. It does not mention fμf_\mufμ​, Δk\Delta_kΔk​ or the filtration, so it cannot be discharged by choosing an auxiliary object.

A complete development needs:

  • Gaussian moment bounds and differentiation under the Gaussian integral;
  • conditional expectation with respect to the natural filtration of an independent sequence;
  • the descent lemma for CL1,1\mathcal C^{1,1}_LCL1,1​ functions.

The Gaussian-smoothing lemmas (3.6), (3.7) and (3.9) are reusable by any zeroth-order mission. Contributions of proofs of individual milestones are welcome, as are alternative proofs of (3.7) without Nesterov's bound.

Selected references

  • S. Ghadimi and G. Lan, Stochastic first- and zeroth-order methods for nonconvex stochastic programming, SIAM J. Optim. 23(4):2341–2368, 2013. Preprint arXiv:1309.5549v1, the version cited here. https://arxiv.org/abs/1309.5549
  • Y. Nesterov and V. Spokoiny, Random gradient-free minimization of convex functions, Found. Comput. Math. 17:527–566, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10208-015-9296-2
  • J. Kiefer and J. Wolfowitz, Stochastic estimation of the maximum of a regression function, Ann. Math. Statist. 23(3):462–466, 1952. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177729392
18 thms3 active usersReviewed
Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

A game-theoretic approach to computation offloading in mobile cloud computing I: The Offloading GNEP Has a SolutionResearch Paper

Motivation

Mobile devices run applications whose computational load can exceed what the device itself can serve in reasonable time and with reasonable battery drain. Computation offloading sends part of that load elsewhere: to a cloudlet, a small cluster of servers one wireless hop away, or to a distant cloud reached through the wide-area network. The cloudlet is shared, so its response time depends on how much load all users send to it, and each user's best offloading decision depends on everybody else's. Cardellini, De Nitto Personé, Di Valerio, Facchinei, Grassi, Lo Presti and Piccialli (Math. Program., 2016, DOI 10.1007/s10107-015-0881-6) model this as a non-cooperative game between users and study it with the tools of variational inequalities.

The game is a generalized Nash equilibrium problem (GNEP): not only the costs but also the feasible sets of the players depend on the other players' choices, because all users share one capacity constraint on the cloudlet. GNEPs with a shared convex constraint (jointly convex games) can be reduced to a single variational inequality, a reduction the paper takes from Facchinei, Fischer and Piccialli (Oper. Res. Lett. 2007, DOI 10.1016/j.orl.2006.03.004); Facchinei and Kanzow survey the area (Ann. Oper. Res. 2010, DOI 10.1007/s10479-009-0653-x). This mission formalizes the first step of the paper's analysis: the game has an equilibrium.

Setting

There are NNN users u=1,…,Nu=1,\dots,Nu=1,…,N and three tiers I={m,clet,cloud}I=\{m,\mathrm{clet},\mathrm{cloud}\}I={m,clet,cloud} (mobile device, cloudlet, cloud). User uuu chooses the fractions xu=(xu,m,xu,clet,xu,cloud)x_u=(x_{u,m},x_{u,\mathrm{clet}},x_{u,\mathrm{cloud}})xu​=(xu,m​,xu,clet​,xu,cloud​) of its tasks run on each tier. A profile is x=(x1,…,xN)∈R3Nx=(x_1,\dots,x_N)\in\mathbb R^{3N}x=(x1​,…,xN​)∈R3N.

The data are reals αu,βu,γu,δu\alpha_u,\beta_u,\gamma_u,\delta_uαu​,βu​,γu​,δu​ (arrival rates divided by service or transfer rates), powers Pu,m,Pu,t,Pu,max⁡P_{u,m},P_{u,t},P_{u,\max}Pu,m​,Pu,t​,Pu,max​, the number n≥1n\ge1n≥1 of cloudlet servers, the offloadable fraction χ∈(0,1]\chi\in(0,1]χ∈(0,1] and a utilisation cap Umax⁡U_{\max}Umax​. Assumption A requires Umax⁡U_{\max}Umax​ and every αu,δu\alpha_u,\delta_uαu​,δu​ to lie in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1).

User uuu's private feasible set is

K~u={xu∈R+3: ∑i∈Ixu,i=1, xu,clet+xu,cloud≤χ, αuPu,mxu,m+βuPu,t(xu,clet+xu,cloud)≤Pu,max⁡},\tilde K_u=\Big\{x_u\in\mathbb R^3_+:\ \textstyle\sum_{i\in I}x_{u,i}=1,\ x_{u,\mathrm{clet}}+x_{u,\mathrm{cloud}}\le\chi,\ \alpha_uP_{u,m}x_{u,m}+\beta_uP_{u,t}(x_{u,\mathrm{clet}}+x_{u,\mathrm{cloud}})\le P_{u,\max}\Big\},K~u​={xu​∈R+3​: ∑i∈I​xu,i​=1, xu,clet​+xu,cloud​≤χ, αu​Pu,m​xu,m​+βu​Pu,t​(xu,clet​+xu,cloud​)≤Pu,max​},

the shared constraint is Ω={x:1n∑vδvxv,clet≤Umax⁡}\Omega=\{x:\frac1n\sum_v\delta_vx_{v,\mathrm{clet}}\le U_{\max}\}Ω={x:n1​∑v​δv​xv,clet​≤Umax​}, and the joint feasible set is K=(∏uK~u)∩ΩK=\big(\prod_u\tilde K_u\big)\cap\OmegaK=(∏u​K~u​)∩Ω. User uuu minimises the mean response cost

λuRu(xu,x−u)=αuxu,m1−αuxu,m+βuxu,clet+γuxu,cloud+δuxu,clet1−1n∑vδvxv,clet\lambda_uR_u(x_u,x_{-u})=\frac{\alpha_ux_{u,m}}{1-\alpha_ux_{u,m}}+\beta_ux_{u,\mathrm{clet}}+\gamma_ux_{u,\mathrm{cloud}}+\frac{\delta_ux_{u,\mathrm{clet}}}{1-\frac1n\sum_v\delta_vx_{v,\mathrm{clet}}}λu​Ru​(xu​,x−u​)=1−αu​xu,m​αu​xu,m​​+βu​xu,clet​+γu​xu,cloud​+1−n1​∑v​δv​xv,clet​δu​xu,clet​​

over {y∈K~u:(y,x−u)∈Ω}\{y\in\tilde K_u:(y,x_{-u})\in\Omega\}{y∈K~u​:(y,x−u​)∈Ω}. A solution of the GNEP is a profile xˉ∈K\bar x\in Kxˉ∈K at which no user can lower its cost by a deviation that keeps the shared constraint satisfied.

The map F:R3N→R3NF:\mathbb R^{3N}\to\mathbb R^{3N}F:R3N→R3N stacks the users' partial gradients,

F(x)u=(αu(1−αuxu,m)2, βu+δu1−1n∑v≠uδvxv,clet(1−1n∑vδvxv,clet)2, γu),F(x)_u=\Big(\frac{\alpha_u}{(1-\alpha_ux_{u,m})^2},\ \beta_u+\delta_u\frac{1-\frac1n\sum_{v\ne u}\delta_vx_{v,\mathrm{clet}}}{\big(1-\frac1n\sum_v\delta_vx_{v,\mathrm{clet}}\big)^2},\ \gamma_u\Big),F(x)u​=((1−αu​xu,m​)2αu​​, βu​+δu​(1−n1​∑v​δv​xv,clet​)21−n1​∑v=u​δv​xv,clet​​, γu​),

and xˉ\bar xxˉ solves the variational inequality VI(K,F)\mathrm{VI}(K,F)VI(K,F) if xˉ∈K\bar x\in Kxˉ∈K and F(xˉ)⊤(x−xˉ)≥0F(\bar x)^\top(x-\bar x)\ge0F(xˉ)⊤(x−xˉ)≥0 for all x∈Kx\in Kx∈K. Such solutions are the variational (or normalized) solutions of the game.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1 (p. 12)

Under Assumption A, and provided every K~u\tilde K_uK~u​ is nonempty,

∃ xˉ∈K  ∀u  ∀y∈K~u with (y,xˉ−u)∈Ω:λuRu(xˉu,xˉ−u)≤λuRu(y,xˉ−u).\exists\,\bar x\in K\ \ \forall u\ \ \forall y\in\tilde K_u\ \text{with}\ (y,\bar x_{-u})\in\Omega:\quad \lambda_uR_u(\bar x_u,\bar x_{-u})\le\lambda_uR_u(y,\bar x_{-u}).∃xˉ∈K  ∀u  ∀y∈K~u​ with (y,xˉ−u​)∈Ω:λu​Ru​(xˉu​,xˉ−u​)≤λu​Ru​(y,xˉ−u​).

Milestones

  1. F(x)u=∇xuλuRu(x)F(x)_u=\nabla_{x_u}\lambda_uR_u(x)F(x)u​=∇xu​​λu​Ru​(x) wherever both denominators are positive (p. 11).
  2. For fixed x−ux_{-u}x−u​, user uuu's feasible set is convex and its cost is convex on it (p. 11).
  3. Every solution of VI(K,F)\mathrm{VI}(K,F)VI(K,F) is a solution of the GNEP (proof of Proposition 1).
  4. FFF is continuous on KKK, and KKK is compact and convex (proof of Proposition 1).
  5. VI(K,F)\mathrm{VI}(K,F)VI(K,F) has a solution (proof of Proposition 1, citing Facchinei–Pang, Corollary 2.2.5).

Milestones 3 and 5 give the goal; milestones 1 and 2 are what milestone 3 rests on, and milestone 4 is what milestone 5 rests on. The platform's Proved statement of Brouwer's fixed-point theorem (AGT.brouwer_fixed_point) is included as a reference item for milestone 5.

Significance

The result. Existence of an equilibrium is the precondition for everything else in the paper: the monotonicity of FFF (Theorem 1), the reformulation with a cloudlet price as an extended game (Theorem 2), and the distributed algorithm whose convergence is Theorem 3. Proposition 1 also shows that variational solutions exist, which is the specific equilibrium the paper's algorithm computes.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper, in three lines that cite two textbook theorems. The work here is to make those citations machine-checked for this concrete model: that the closed-form FFF is indeed the stacked partial gradient, that each user's problem is convex despite the rational cost terms, that the VI-to-GNEP reduction holds, and that a VI on a compact convex set with continuous map has a solution. None of these steps is formalized in Mathlib for GNEPs; the last is a finite-dimensional Hartman–Stampacchia theorem, which Mathlib does not contain. No part of this paper has a machine-checked proof.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is to apply Kakutani's theorem to the best-response correspondence. With a shared constraint this needs lower semicontinuity of the feasible-set map x−u↦{y∈K~u:(y,x−u)∈Ω}x_{-u}\mapsto\{y\in\tilde K_u:(y,x_{-u})\in\Omega\}x−u​↦{y∈K~u​:(y,x−u​)∈Ω}, which is a separate argument, and Kakutani is not in Mathlib either. The VI route avoids it but has its own points. The cost has the rational terms αuxu,m/(1−αuxu,m)\alpha_ux_{u,m}/(1-\alpha_ux_{u,m})αu​xu,m​/(1−αu​xu,m​) and δuxu,clet/D(x)\delta_ux_{u,\mathrm{clet}}/D(x)δu​xu,clet​/D(x), and convexity and differentiability must be checked on the region where the denominators are positive; on a user's feasible set this needs Assumption A and the shared constraint, not the private constraints alone. The existence of a VI solution needs a fixed-point theorem on a compact convex set, and Mathlib has no Brouwer theorem. That is why the platform's statement of it is attached to this mission.

Formalization scope

Users are Fin N (0-based) and tiers an inductive type Tier with three constructors; a profile is Fin N → Tier → ℝ. The inner product a⊤ba^\top ba⊤b is the coordinatewise double sum (not Mathlib's sup norm on Pi types). The cost and FFF are the paper's closed forms; FFF is not defined as a derivative, so milestone 1 has content. Lean's x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0 makes both formulas junk where a denominator vanishes. Under Assumption A both denominators are positive on KKK and at every point the GNEP definition compares, and milestone 1 assumes the two positivity conditions explicitly.

Standing hypotheses in every statement: Assumption A, n≥1n\ge1n≥1, 0<χ≤10<\chi\le10<χ≤1. Nothing is assumed of βu,γu\beta_u,\gamma_uβu​,γu​ or the powers, as in the paper. Added hypothesis: every K~u\tilde K_uK~u​ is nonempty, in the goal and in milestone 5. The printed proposition is false without it: if 0<Pu,max⁡<min⁡(αuPu,m,βuPu,t)0<P_{u,\max}<\min(\alpha_uP_{u,m},\beta_uP_{u,t})0<Pu,max​<min(αu​Pu,m​,βu​Pu,t​) then K~u=∅\tilde K_u=\emptysetK~u​=∅, so K=∅K=\emptysetK=∅. The condition is equivalent to K≠∅K\ne\emptysetK=∅. Milestone 4 adds convexity of KKK to the paper's "continuous and compact".

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: KKK cannot be empty under the added hypothesis, FFF is not a derivative by definition, no statement evaluates the cost at a point with a vanishing denominator, and the GNEP keeps the shared constraint in each player's feasible set (dropping it gives a different game, a NEP).

Contributions welcome: a finite-dimensional Hartman–Stampacchia theorem (reusable well beyond this mission), the general VI-implies-GNEP reduction for jointly convex games, and proofs of the model-specific milestones.

Selected references

  • V. Cardellini, V. De Nitto Personé, V. Di Valerio, F. Facchinei, V. Grassi, F. Lo Presti, V. Piccialli, A game-theoretic approach to computation offloading in mobile cloud computing, Mathematical Programming (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-015-0881-6 (accepted manuscript: IRIS Sapienza, handle 11573/779661)
  • F. Facchinei, A. Fischer, V. Piccialli, On generalized Nash games and variational inequalities, Operations Research Letters 35 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orl.2006.03.004
  • F. Facchinei, C. Kanzow, Generalized Nash equilibrium problems, Annals of Operations Research 175 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-009-0653-x
  • F. Facchinei, J.-S. Pang, Finite-Dimensional Variational Inequalities and Complementarity Problems, Springer, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/b97543
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Machine LearningOptimal TransportOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Regularization via Mass Transportation II: Wasserstein-Robust Linear Regression Equals Empirical Loss plus a Dual-Norm PenaltyResearch Paper

Motivation

Ordinary least squares and its robust relatives (least absolute deviations, Huber, ϵ\epsilonϵ-insensitive and quantile regression) fit a linear predictor by minimizing an average loss over the training sample. That average estimates the out-of-sample error poorly when the sample is small, and the usual fix is to add a regularization penalty such as a norm of the weights. Choosing that penalty is often a heuristic. Distributionally robust optimization gives one principled derivation of it: hedge against every data-generating distribution that is close to the empirical one in a Wasserstein distance, and minimize the worst-case expected loss.

S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, D. Kuhn and P. Mohajerin Esfahani, Regularization via Mass Transportation (arXiv:1710.10016v3, 2019; JMLR 20, 2019), show that for linear regression with a convex Lipschitz loss this worst-case problem is exactly a regularized empirical risk problem, with an explicit dual-norm penalty. The same identity appears for the logistic loss in Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, Mohajerin Esfahani and Kuhn, Distributionally Robust Logistic Regression (NeurIPS 2015, arXiv:1509.09259). For a general convex loss it is Theorem 10 of the tutorial by Kuhn, Mohajerin Esfahani, Nguyen and Shafieezadeh-Abadeh (arXiv:1908.08729). Blanchet, Kang and Murthy (arXiv:1610.05627) obtain the square-root Lasso from a type-2 transport cost. This mission formalizes the regression theorem of the first paper, Theorem 3.1(ii) on p. 8. The source PDF is the arXiv preprint v3, and every page and label cited here refers to it.

Setting

Data. Inputs are x∈Rnx\in\mathbb R^nx∈Rn and outputs are y∈Ry\in\mathbb Ry∈R. A pair is written ξ=(x,y)∈Rn+1\xi=(x,y)\in\mathbb R^{n+1}ξ=(x,y)∈Rn+1. The training samples are (x^i,y^i)(\hat x_i,\hat y_i)(x^i​,y^​i​) for i=1,…,Ni=1,\dots,Ni=1,…,N, and P^N=1N∑i=1Nδ(x^i,y^i)\hat{\mathbb P}_N=\frac1N\sum_{i=1}^N\delta_{(\hat x_i,\hat y_i)}P^N​=N1​∑i=1N​δ(x^i​,y^​i​)​ is their empirical distribution (§2.1, p. 5).

Hypotheses and loss. A weight vector w∈Rnw\in\mathbb R^nw∈Rn defines the linear hypothesis h(x)=⟨w,x⟩h(x)=\langle w,x\rangleh(x)=⟨w,x⟩. A univariate convex loss L:R→RL:\mathbb R\to\mathbb RL:R→R defines the regression loss ℓ(⟨w,x⟩,y)=L(⟨w,x⟩−y)\ell(\langle w,x\rangle,y)=L(\langle w,x\rangle-y)ℓ(⟨w,x⟩,y)=L(⟨w,x⟩−y) (§3.1, p. 8). The residual ⟨w,x⟩−y\langle w,x\rangle-y⟨w,x⟩−y is the pairing of ξ\xiξ with the vector (w,−1)(w,-1)(w,−1).

Norms. Rn+1\mathbb R^{n+1}Rn+1 carries an arbitrary norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ with dual norm ∥z∥∗=sup⁡{⟨z,ξ⟩:∥ξ∥≤1}\|z\|_*=\sup\{\langle z,\xi\rangle:\|\xi\|\le1\}∥z∥∗​=sup{⟨z,ξ⟩:∥ξ∥≤1} (§1.1, p. 4). The Lipschitz modulus of LLL is lip(L)=sup⁡z≠z′∣L(z)−L(z′)∣/∣z−z′∣\mathrm{lip}(L)=\sup_{z\ne z'}|L(z)-L(z')|/|z-z'|lip(L)=supz=z′​∣L(z)−L(z′)∣/∣z−z′∣, and the convex conjugate is L∗(θ)=sup⁡zθz−L(z)L^*(\theta)=\sup_z\theta z-L(z)L∗(θ)=supz​θz−L(z) (§1.1).

Wasserstein ball. With transport cost d(ξ,ξ′)=∥ξ−ξ′∥d(\xi,\xi')=\|\xi-\xi'\|d(ξ,ξ′)=∥ξ−ξ′∥, the Wasserstein distance (Definition 2.2, p. 7) is

W(Q,Q′)=inf⁡Π∫d(ξ,ξ′) Π(dξ,dξ′),W(\mathbb Q,\mathbb Q')=\inf_\Pi\int d(\xi,\xi')\,\Pi(\mathrm d\xi,\mathrm d\xi'),W(Q,Q′)=Πinf​∫d(ξ,ξ′)Π(dξ,dξ′),

where the infimum runs over couplings Π\PiΠ of Q\mathbb QQ and Q′\mathbb Q'Q′. The ball of radius ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0 is Bρ(P^N)={Q:Q(Ξ)=1, W(Q,P^N)≤ρ}\mathbb B_\rho(\hat{\mathbb P}_N)=\{\mathbb Q:\mathbb Q(\Xi)=1,\ W(\mathbb Q,\hat{\mathbb P}_N)\le\rho\}Bρ​(P^N​)={Q:Q(Ξ)=1, W(Q,P^N​)≤ρ} (3). The distributionally robust regression problem is

inf⁡w sup⁡Q∈Bρ(P^N)EQ[L(⟨w,x⟩−y)].(4)\inf_w\ \sup_{\mathbb Q\in\mathbb B_\rho(\hat{\mathbb P}_N)}\mathbb E^{\mathbb Q}\big[L(\langle w,x\rangle-y)\big].\qquad(4)winf​ Q∈Bρ​(P^N​)sup​EQ[L(⟨w,x⟩−y)].(4)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1(ii), p. 8

Let Ξ=Rn+1\Xi=\mathbb R^{n+1}Ξ=Rn+1, ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0, N≥1N\ge1N≥1, and let LLL be nonnegative, convex and Lipschitz continuous. Then for every www

sup⁡Q∈Bρ(P^N)EQ[L(⟨w,x⟩−y)]=1N∑i=1NL(⟨w,x^i⟩−y^i)+ρ lip(L) ∥(w,−1)∥∗,\sup_{\mathbb Q\in\mathbb B_\rho(\hat{\mathbb P}_N)}\mathbb E^{\mathbb Q}\big[L(\langle w,x\rangle-y)\big]=\frac1N\sum_{i=1}^NL(\langle w,\hat x_i\rangle-\hat y_i)+\rho\,\mathrm{lip}(L)\,\|(w,-1)\|_*,Q∈Bρ​(P^N​)sup​EQ[L(⟨w,x⟩−y)]=N1​i=1∑N​L(⟨w,x^i​⟩−y^​i​)+ρlip(L)∥(w,−1)∥∗​,

so (4) and the regularized problem (6) have the same optimal value.

Milestones

  1. Lemma A.1 (p. 28). The worst case over the ball equals inf⁡λ≥0λρ+1N∑isup⁡ξ[I(ξ)−λd(ξ,ξ^i)]\inf_{\lambda\ge0}\lambda\rho+\frac1N\sum_i\sup_\xi[I(\xi)-\lambda d(\xi,\hat\xi_i)]infλ≥0​λρ+N1​∑i​supξ​[I(ξ)−λd(ξ,ξ^​i​)]. This milestone is linked to the published, proved WassersteinDRO.Duality.strong_duality_worst_case_risk_v2, which covers it for ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0.
  2. Lemma A.3 (p. 29). For γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, sup⁡ζL(⟨β,ζ⟩)−γ∥ζ−ζ^∥\sup_\zeta L(\langle\beta,\zeta\rangle)-\gamma\|\zeta-\hat\zeta\|supζ​L(⟨β,ζ⟩)−γ∥ζ−ζ^​∥ equals L(⟨β,ζ^⟩)L(\langle\beta,\hat\zeta\rangle)L(⟨β,ζ^​⟩) if lip(L)∥β∥∗≤γ\mathrm{lip}(L)\|\beta\|_*\le\gammalip(L)∥β∥∗​≤γ, and +∞+\infty+∞ otherwise.
  3. End of the proof of Lemma A.3 (p. 30). lip(L)=sup⁡{∣θ∣:L∗(θ)<∞}\mathrm{lip}(L)=\sup\{|\theta|:L^*(\theta)<\infty\}lip(L)=sup{∣θ∣:L∗(θ)<∞}.
  4. The inf-over-λ\lambdaλ display in the proof of Theorem 3.1(ii) (pp. 30–31). The worst case equals inf⁡{λρ+1N∑iL(⟨w,x^i⟩−y^i):λ≥0, lip(L)∥(w,−1)∥∗≤λ}\inf\{\lambda\rho+\frac1N\sum_iL(\langle w,\hat x_i\rangle-\hat y_i):\lambda\ge0,\ \mathrm{lip}(L)\|(w,-1)\|_*\le\lambda\}inf{λρ+N1​∑i​L(⟨w,x^i​⟩−y^​i​):λ≥0, lip(L)∥(w,−1)∥∗​≤λ}.

Significance

The result. The theorem turns an infinite-dimensional min–max problem over distributions into a finite convex program over www: an empirical average plus a norm penalty. The penalty is not ∥w∥∗\|w\|_*∥w∥∗​ but ∥(w,−1)∥∗\|(w,-1)\|_*∥(w,−1)∥∗​, because the transport cost moves outputs as well as inputs. It scales with the radius ρ\rhoρ and with the Lipschitz modulus of the univariate loss. With the Huber, ϵ\epsilonϵ-insensitive and pinball losses it gives Corollaries 3.2–3.4 of the paper. It also gives a statistical reading of the regularization weight as a Wasserstein radius, which the paper's §4 turns into generalization bounds.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; none of its items is formalized yet except Lemma A.1. Lemma A.1 is available in a general form (any p≥1p\ge1p≥1, any closed support set, ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0) as a proved platform theorem from the mission Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization. The per-www identity also follows from the proved WassersteinDRO.Duality.convex_loss_p1_v2 (Theorem 10 of the tutorial, also present as WassersteinDRO.Regularization.convex_loss_p1_v2; the public mission Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization IV has it as goal) once one shows that lip(L∘⟨(w,−1),⋅⟩)=lip(L)∥(w,−1)∥∗\mathrm{lip}(L\circ\langle(w,-1),\cdot\rangle)=\mathrm{lip}(L)\|(w,-1)\|_*lip(L∘⟨(w,−1),⋅⟩)=lip(L)∥(w,−1)∥∗​. No platform item states that factorization. What this mission adds is the paper's explicit form of the penalty, Lemma A.3 (the inner supremum for an arbitrary convex Lipschitz loss and an arbitrary norm), and the conjugate description of the Lipschitz modulus. The last two are reusable in classification (mission I of this series states them again in its own namespace) and in every Wasserstein-regularization result with linear hypotheses.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is to write the worst case as a supremum over perturbations of the samples and bound each perturbed loss by its Lipschitz constant. That gives only the inequality "≤\le≤", and only for one Lipschitz constant. The identity needs two further steps that this bound does not supply. First, the bound must be attained: the supremum over distributions has to be shown to reach ρ lip(L)∥(w,−1)∥∗\rho\,\mathrm{lip}(L)\|(w,-1)\|_*ρlip(L)∥(w,−1)∥∗​, a matching lower bound that a Lipschitz estimate cannot give. Second, lip(L)\mathrm{lip}(L)lip(L) must be the modulus, not any constant: an upper Lipschitz constant K>lip(L)K>\mathrm{lip}(L)K>lip(L) makes the identity false. In Lemma A.3 the case lip(L)∥β∥∗=γ\mathrm{lip}(L)\|\beta\|_*=\gammalip(L)∥β∥∗​=γ sits exactly on the boundary between a finite and an infinite supremum. A further point is that the duality of Lemma A.1 needs ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0, while the theorem includes ρ=0\rho=0ρ=0.

Formalization scope

  • Space. Rn+1\mathbb R^{n+1}Rn+1 with an arbitrary norm is an abstract finite-dimensional real normed space E with its Borel σ-algebra. A continuous linear isomorphism e : E ≃L[ℝ] (Fin n → ℝ) × ℝ reads off inputs and outputs. The theorem therefore covers every norm on Rn+1\mathbb R^{n+1}Rn+1; fixing a concrete norm would prove it for that norm only. The functional (w,−1)(w,-1)(w,−1) is pairing e w, and ∥(w,−1)∥∗\|(w,-1)\|_*∥(w,−1)∥∗​ is its operator norm.
  • Published objects. The ball, the worst case, the empirical distribution and the Lipschitz modulus are the published definitions WassersteinDRO_Duality_ambiguitySet, _worstCaseRisk_v2, _empiricalDistribution and _lipschitzModulus. The worst case is taken in the extended reals, and expectations follow the convention of nominalRisk_v2 (no junk value for non-integrable losses). lip(L)\mathrm{lip}(L)lip(L) takes values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].
  • Standing assumptions. LLL is nonnegative, convex on R\mathbb RR and Lipschitz continuous; N≥1N\ge1N≥1; ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0; Ξ=Rn+1\Xi=\mathbb R^{n+1}Ξ=Rn+1. The paper's L≥0L\ge0L≥0 (§2.1) is imposed as the standing loss-function assumption.
  • Reading of "equivalent". The paper does not define the word. The goal states the per-www identity that the proof establishes plus equality of optimal values. Attainment of the infimum is not claimed.
  • Corrections. The printed display on p. 30 omits a factor 1N\frac1NN1​ and carries a stray ∣θ∣|\theta|∣θ∣ in the constraint; milestone 4 states the corrected identity. The printed Lemma A.1 omits ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0, which its proof uses; the linked platform theorem has it.
  • Ruled out. The goal is not a restatement of Theorem 10 with Lip(ℓw)\mathrm{Lip}(\ell_w)Lip(ℓw​) of the composite loss: its right-hand side is the explicit average of (6) with lip\mathrm{lip}lip of the univariate LLL and the dual norm of (w,−1)(w,-1)(w,−1).
  • Welcome contributions. The factorization lip(L∘β)=lip(L)∥β∥∗\mathrm{lip}(L\circ\beta)=\mathrm{lip}(L)\|\beta\|_*lip(L∘β)=lip(L)∥β∥∗​ for a linear functional β\betaβ on a finite-dimensional normed space, conjugate calculus for univariate convex functions, and the evaluation of the worst case at ρ=0\rho=0ρ=0.

Selected references

  • S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, D. Kuhn, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, Regularization via Mass Transportation, arXiv:1710.10016v3, 2019; J. Mach. Learn. Res. 20(103), 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.10016
  • D. Kuhn, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, V. A. Nguyen, S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization: Theory and Applications in Machine Learning, INFORMS TutORials, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08729
  • P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, Data-driven distributionally robust optimization using the Wasserstein metric, Math. Program. 171, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1505.05116
  • S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, Distributionally Robust Logistic Regression, NeurIPS, 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.09259
  • J. Blanchet, Y. Kang, K. Murthy, Robust Wasserstein Profile Inference and Applications to Machine Learning, J. Appl. Probab. 56(3), 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.05627
  • D. P. Bertsekas, Convex Optimization Theory, Athena Scientific, 2009 (cited as [9] in the paper for Propositions 5.3.1 and 5.5.4).
15 thms3 active usersReviewed
Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Consumer Returns Policies and Supply Chain Performance 2: Under Consumer Returns, the Differentiated Buy-Back with b − l = s Coordinates the Supply Chain and Gives the Retailer a Share φResearch Paper

Motivation

Retailers in many categories accept returns of products that are not defective: a consumer buys, learns whether the product suits them, and may send it back for a refund. Returns of this kind are a large cost item in retailing, and the refund a retailer offers is an operational decision on a par with its price and its stocking quantity. Xuanming Su, Consumer Returns Policies and Supply Chain Performance (SSRN 1020451, version of August 2008; published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 11(4), 2009, doi:10.1287/msom.1080.0240), studies this decision first for a single seller and then in a supply chain.

This mission formalizes the supply chain part, Section 5 of the paper. A classical result of supply chain contracting is that a manufacturer can align a retailer's ordering decision with the interest of the whole chain by a buy-back contract, which pays the retailer a credit for unsold units (Cachon, Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts, 2003). Su shows that once the retailer also sets a consumer returns policy, the standard buy-back no longer coordinates, and identifies three contracts that do. The companion mission (mission 1 of this series) formalizes the single-seller results of Sections 3–4, in particular Proposition 2, which gives the supply chain optimum used here.

Setting

A consumer who buys at price ppp learns a valuation VVV, drawn independently from a law ν\nuν with finite mean μ=EV\mu = EVμ=EV, and then either keeps the product or returns it for the refund rrr. Keeping is optimal when V≥rV \ge rV≥r. Write

Gˉ(r)=P(V≥r),G(r)=P(V<r),\bar G(r) = \mathbb P(V \ge r), \qquad G(r) = \mathbb P(V < r),Gˉ(r)=P(V≥r),G(r)=P(V<r),

for the probabilities of keeping and returning. A consumer's expected utility from buying is Emax⁡(V,r)E\max(V,r)Emax(V,r), which is therefore the reservation price: all consumers buy if p≤Emax⁡(V,r)p \le E\max(V,r)p≤Emax(V,r) and none buys otherwise (the demand rule (6)). Market demand X≥0X \ge 0X≥0 has distribution function FFF and Fˉ=1−F\bar F = 1 - FFˉ=1−F; a stock q≥0q \ge 0q≥0 sells Emin⁡(X,q)E\min(X,q)Emin(X,q) in expectation when consumers buy, and nothing when they do not. Write S(p,q,r)S(p,q,r)S(p,q,r) for these expected sales. The production cost is ccc, leftover and returned units are salvaged at sss, and 0≤s<c<μ0 \le s < c < \mu0≤s<c<μ.

The total supply chain profit is

ΠT(p,q,r)=[(p−s)Gˉ(r)+(p−r)G(r)] S(p,q,r)−(c−s)q.(15)\Pi_T(p,q,r) = [(p-s)\bar G(r) + (p-r)G(r)]\,S(p,q,r) - (c-s)q. \tag{15}ΠT​(p,q,r)=[(p−s)Gˉ(r)+(p−r)G(r)]S(p,q,r)−(c−s)q.(15)

A manufacturer sells to a retailer, who sets ppp, qqq and (except in Proposition 4) rrr. The contracts are:

  • standard buy-back (w,b)(w,b)(w,b): wholesale price www, credit bbb per leftover unit; the retailer earns (14);
  • differentiated buy-back (w,b,l)(w,b,l)(w,b,l): credit bbb per unsold unit and b−lb-lb−l per returned unit; the retailer earns
ΠR(p,q,r)=[(p−b)Gˉ(r)+(p−r−l)G(r)] S(p,q,r)−(w−b)q;(31)\Pi_R(p,q,r) = [(p-b)\bar G(r) + (p-r-l)G(r)]\,S(p,q,r) - (w-b)q; \tag{31}ΠR​(p,q,r)=[(p−b)Gˉ(r)+(p−r−l)G(r)]S(p,q,r)−(w−b)q;(31)
  • direct-to-manufacturer returns with a buy-back (w,b)(w,b)(w,b): consumers return to the manufacturer, who sets rrr; the profits are (19) and (21);
  • sales rebate (w,u)(w,u)(w,u): a rebate uuu per unit sold, returned or not; the retailer earns (25).

The supply chain optimum, from Proposition 2 of the paper, is

pSC=Emax⁡(V,s),Fˉ(qSC)=c−sEmax⁡(V,s)−s,rSC=s.p^{SC} = E\max(V,s), \qquad \bar F(q^{SC}) = \frac{c-s}{E\max(V,s)-s}, \qquad r^{SC} = s.pSC=Emax(V,s),Fˉ(qSC)=Emax(V,s)−sc−s​,rSC=s.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3 (p. 16)

For ϕ∈[0,1]\phi \in [0,1]ϕ∈[0,1] and ϕˉ=1−ϕ\bar\phi = 1-\phiϕˉ​=1−ϕ, the differentiated buy-back

w=ϕc+ϕˉ Emax⁡(V,s),b=ϕs+ϕˉ Emax⁡(V,s),b−l=sw = \phi c + \bar\phi\,E\max(V,s), \qquad b = \phi s + \bar\phi\,E\max(V,s), \qquad b - l = sw=ϕc+ϕˉ​Emax(V,s),b=ϕs+ϕˉ​Emax(V,s),b−l=s

makes the supply chain optimum a retailer optimum and gives the retailer the share ϕ\phiϕ:

ΠR(p,q,r)≤ΠR(pSC,qSC,rSC)  ∀p,r, q≥0,ΠR(pSC,qSC,rSC)=ϕ ΠT(pSC,qSC,rSC),\Pi_R(p,q,r) \le \Pi_R(p^{SC},q^{SC},r^{SC}) \ \ \forall p, r,\ q \ge 0, \qquad \Pi_R(p^{SC},q^{SC},r^{SC}) = \phi\,\Pi_T(p^{SC},q^{SC},r^{SC}),ΠR​(p,q,r)≤ΠR​(pSC,qSC,rSC)  ∀p,r, q≥0,ΠR​(pSC,qSC,rSC)=ϕΠT​(pSC,qSC,rSC),

and the contract is implementable: w≥bw \ge bw≥b, l≥0l \ge 0l≥0, b−l≥sb - l \ge sb−l≥s.

Milestones

  1. Under a standard buy-back the retailer's optimal refund is r∗=br^* = br∗=b (Sec. 5.1, p. 15).
  2. Under (31) the retailer's optimum is p∗=Emax⁡(V,b−l)p^* = E\max(V,b-l)p∗=Emax(V,b−l), Fˉ(q∗)=(w−b)/(Emax⁡(V,b−l)−b)\bar F(q^*) = (w-b)/(E\max(V,b-l)-b)Fˉ(q∗)=(w−b)/(Emax(V,b−l)−b), r∗=b−lr^* = b-lr∗=b−l (proof of Proposition 3, p. 27).
  3. Under (16)–(18), w−b=ϕ(c−s)w - b = \phi(c-s)w−b=ϕ(c−s) and Emax⁡(V,b−l)−b=ϕ[Emax⁡(V,s)−s]E\max(V,b-l) - b = \phi[E\max(V,s)-s]Emax(V,b−l)−b=ϕ[Emax(V,s)−s] ((32)–(33)).
  4. At (Emax⁡(V,s),q,s)(E\max(V,s), q, s)(Emax(V,s),q,s) the retailer earns ϕ ΠT\phi\,\Pi_TϕΠT​ ((34)–(39)).
  5. Retailer plus manufacturer profit under direct returns is ΠT\Pi_TΠT​ (Sec. 5.3, p. 17).
  6. Proposition 4: with direct-to-manufacturer returns and the buy-back (22)–(23), the chain optimum is a Nash equilibrium between retailer and manufacturer, with retailer share ϕ\phiϕ.
  7. Proposition 5: the sales rebate u=Emax⁡(V,s)−sc−s(w−c)u = \frac{E\max(V,s)-s}{c-s}(w-c)u=c−sEmax(V,s)−s​(w−c) makes the chain optimum a retailer optimum.
  8. With a rebate paid on kept units only, the retailer's optimal refund is r∗=s−u<sr^* = s - u < sr∗=s−u<s (Sec. 5.4, p. 19).

Significance

The results separate what a contract must observe in order to coordinate a chain with consumer returns: either the manufacturer distinguishes returned from unsold units (Propositions 3 and 4), or it observes sales (Proposition 5). The negative results (milestones 1 and 8) show why the standard buy-back and a kept-only rebate fail: each distorts the retailer's refund away from the salvage value. These statements are proved in the paper by short arguments; none of them has, to the knowledge of this mission, a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them yields a reusable model of a newsvendor with an endogenous price and refund under valuation uncertainty, and a checked account of the coordination conditions, including the boundary cases (ϕ=0\phi = 0ϕ=0, atoms in the valuation law) that the paper does not discuss.

Difficulty

Each result combines two optimizations, and neither is routine at the generality of the formal statements. The first is over price and refund jointly: the demand rule makes every profit discontinuous in ppp and rrr, and the refund problem must be solved for an arbitrary valuation law, where atoms make the tie rule at V=rV = rV=r matter. The second is a newsvendor problem in qqq for an arbitrary demand law: the paper writes the optimal stock as Fˉ−1\bar F^{-1}Fˉ−1 of a fractile, which presumes a continuous, strictly increasing FFF, whereas here FFF may jump or be flat and the optimal stock is any solution of the fractile equation. The obvious reduction, "the retailer's profit is ϕ ΠT\phi\,\Pi_TϕΠT​, so its maximizer is the chain's", is not available: that identity holds only at the chain's price and refund, and away from them the retailer's profit is not proportional to ΠT\Pi_TΠT​. In Proposition 4 the manufacturer's deviation to a refund below sss acts on the consumers' purchase decision, and the paper's remark that no one then buys is false when V≥sV \ge sV≥s almost surely, so that case needs its own argument.

Formalization scope

Prices, refunds, costs, quantities and profits are real numbers. The valuation law ν\nuν is a probability measure on R\mathbb RR with integrable identity (a strict generalization of the paper's density ggg); Gˉ(r)=ν([r,∞))\bar G(r) = \nu([r,\infty))Gˉ(r)=ν([r,∞)) and G(r)=ν((−∞,r))G(r) = \nu((-\infty,r))G(r)=ν((−∞,r)), matching the rule "keep iff V≥rV \ge rV≥r". The demand law DDD is a probability measure on R\mathbb RR with D((−∞,0))=0D((-\infty,0)) = 0D((−∞,0))=0, and Emin⁡(X,q)E\min(X,q)Emin(X,q) is SupplyChainTheory.expSales from the published module SupplyChainTheory_contracts. Every profit includes the demand rule (6): without it, (15) and (31) are unbounded in ppp. Optimization is over all real ppp and rrr and all q≥0q \ge 0q≥0, nonnegative stocks and demand being the paper's setting; with negative stocks the profits are unbounded. Optimality of the paper's closed-form triple is claimed, never uniqueness, and "induces the retailer to maximize supply chain profit" is stated as "the chain-optimal triple is a retailer optimum"; that the triple maximizes ΠT\Pi_TΠT​ is Proposition 2, formalized in mission 1, and not restated. The optimal stock is any solution of the fractile equation, and no continuity of DDD is assumed. The Nash equilibrium of Proposition 4 is written as the two best-response inequalities. Proposition 5 adds the hypothesis w≥sw \ge sw≥s, implied by the paper's range w≥cw \ge cw≥c (p. 19) and necessary: for w<sw < sw<s the retailer's profit is unbounded. The kept-only rebate of Sec. 5.4 has no printed formula; its profit is (24) with the rebate removed from the returned-units term. Printed page numbers equal PDF page numbers throughout the source. A formalization in which the retailer's profit is defined as ϕ ΠT\phi\,\Pi_TϕΠT​, or in which the optimization is restricted to r=sr = sr=s, would make the goal trivial and is excluded: (31) is stated with free www, bbb, lll, and the contract enters only through hypotheses.

The model module (SuReturns.Coordination.Model) restates the single-seller objects of mission 1 in this sub-namespace. Contributions welcome: proofs of the two optimization steps as reusable lemmas (the refund step for a general valuation law and the newsvendor step for an arbitrary demand law), which serve every milestone here.

Selected references

  • X. Su, Consumer Returns Policies and Supply Chain Performance, SSRN working paper 1020451, version of August 2008. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1020451 ; published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 11(4), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1080.0240
  • G. P. Cachon, Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts, in Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science, vol. 11, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(03)11006-7
  • B. A. Pasternack, Optimal Pricing and Return Policies for Perishable Commodities (the buy-back contract), Marketing Science 4(2), 1985. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.4.2.166
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OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Conditional Value-at-Risk for General Loss Distributions: β-CVaR Is min_α F_β(x, α), Attained on the Interval from β-VaR to Upper β-VaRResearch Paper

Motivation

Financial institutions, insurers and engineers who manage the risk of a decision describe it by a statistic of the loss distribution that the decision induces. The value-at-risk (VaR) at confidence level β\betaβ, the β\betaβ-quantile of the loss, became an industry and regulatory standard in the 1990s, but it is not subadditive and behaves erratically as a function of the decision when the loss distribution has atoms, as it always does in scenario-based models. The conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), roughly the average of the losses beyond VaR, was proposed as a replacement that is coherent in the sense of Artzner, Delbaen, Eber and Heath and that can be optimized.

In an earlier paper (Rockafellar and Uryasev, 2000) the same authors showed, for loss distributions with continuous distribution functions, that CVaR is the minimum value of an explicit convex function of one real variable, and that VaR is a minimizer. That formula turned CVaR minimization over a portfolio into a linear program and is the reason CVaR is used in practice. The paper formalized here (Rockafellar and Uryasev, Research Report #2001-5, 2001, published in J. Banking & Finance 2002) defines CVaR for general loss distributions, discrete ones included, and proves that the minimization formula survives.

Timeline.

  • 1997–1999: Artzner, Delbaen, Eber and Heath introduce coherent risk measures; VaR fails subadditivity.
  • 2000: Rockafellar and Uryasev prove the minimization formula for continuous loss distributions.
  • 2001–2002: the present paper, Theorem 10: the formula holds for every integrable loss once CVaR is defined as the mean of the β\betaβ-tail distribution. Acerbi and Tasche (2002) give an equivalent "expected shortfall" formulation.

Setting

A decision xxx lies in a set X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn; an uncertain outcome y∈Rmy\in\mathbb R^my∈Rm has a Borel probability law PPP that does not depend on xxx. The loss is z=f(x,y)z=f(x,y)z=f(x,y), where fff is continuous in xxx on XXX, measurable in yyy, and E{∣f(x,y)∣}<∞E\{|f(x,y)|\}<\inftyE{∣f(x,y)∣}<∞ for each x∈Xx\in Xx∈X. A confidence level β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1) is fixed.

  • The distribution function of the loss is Ψ(x,α)=P{y∣f(x,y)≤α}\Psi(x,\alpha)=P\{y\mid f(x,y)\le\alpha\}Ψ(x,α)=P{y∣f(x,y)≤α}, with left limit Ψ(x,α−)=P{y∣f(x,y)<α}\Psi(x,\alpha^-)=P\{y\mid f(x,y)<\alpha\}Ψ(x,α−)=P{y∣f(x,y)<α}.
  • The β\betaβ-VaR is αβ(x)=min⁡{α∣Ψ(x,α)≥β}\alpha_\beta(x)=\min\{\alpha\mid\Psi(x,\alpha)\ge\beta\}αβ​(x)=min{α∣Ψ(x,α)≥β} and the upper β\betaβ-VaR is αβ+(x)=inf⁡{α∣Ψ(x,α)>β}\alpha^+_\beta(x)=\inf\{\alpha\mid\Psi(x,\alpha)>\beta\}αβ+​(x)=inf{α∣Ψ(x,α)>β}.
  • The β\betaβ-tail distribution is the probability measure on R\mathbb RR with distribution function
Ψβ(x,α)={0,α<αβ(x),Ψ(x,α)−β1−β,α≥αβ(x).\Psi_\beta(x,\alpha)=\begin{cases}0,&\alpha<\alpha_\beta(x),\\ \dfrac{\Psi(x,\alpha)-\beta}{1-\beta},&\alpha\ge\alpha_\beta(x).\end{cases}Ψβ​(x,α)=⎩⎨⎧​0,1−βΨ(x,α)−β​,​α<αβ​(x),α≥αβ​(x).​
  • The β\betaβ-CVaR ϕβ(x)\phi_\beta(x)ϕβ​(x) is the mean of the β\betaβ-tail distribution.
  • The upper β\betaβ-CVaR is ϕβ+(x)=E{f(x,y)∣f(x,y)>αβ(x)}\phi^+_\beta(x)=E\{f(x,y)\mid f(x,y)>\alpha_\beta(x)\}ϕβ+​(x)=E{f(x,y)∣f(x,y)>αβ​(x)}, defined when Ψ(x,αβ(x))<1\Psi(x,\alpha_\beta(x))<1Ψ(x,αβ​(x))<1, and λβ(x)=[Ψ(x,αβ(x))−β]/[1−β]\lambda_\beta(x)=[\Psi(x,\alpha_\beta(x))-\beta]/[1-\beta]λβ​(x)=[Ψ(x,αβ​(x))−β]/[1−β].
  • Finally
Fβ(x,α)=α+11−β E{[f(x,y)−α]+},[t]+=max⁡{0,t}.F_\beta(x,\alpha)=\alpha+\frac{1}{1-\beta}\,E\big\{[f(x,y)-\alpha]^+\big\},\qquad[t]^+=\max\{0,t\}.Fβ​(x,α)=α+1−β1​E{[f(x,y)−α]+},[t]+=max{0,t}.

When Ψ(x,⋅)\Psi(x,\cdot)Ψ(x,⋅) jumps across β\betaβ at αβ(x)\alpha_\beta(x)αβ​(x), the tail distribution keeps only the part λβ(x)\lambda_\beta(x)λβ​(x) of that atom needed to give the tail total mass one: the atom is split.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10 (fundamental minimization formula)

For each x∈Xx\in Xx∈X: Fβ(x,⋅)F_\beta(x,\cdot)Fβ​(x,⋅) is finite and convex (hence continuous), and

ϕβ(x)=min⁡α∈RFβ(x,α),argmin⁡αFβ(x,α)=[αβ(x),αβ+(x)],\phi_\beta(x)=\min_{\alpha\in\mathbb R}F_\beta(x,\alpha),\qquad \operatorname{argmin}_\alpha F_\beta(x,\alpha)=[\alpha_\beta(x),\alpha^+_\beta(x)],ϕβ​(x)=α∈Rmin​Fβ​(x,α),argminα​Fβ​(x,α)=[αβ​(x),αβ+​(x)],

the minimum being attained and the argmin a nonempty closed bounded interval; in particular ϕβ(x)=Fβ(x,αβ(x))\phi_\beta(x)=F_\beta(x,\alpha_\beta(x))ϕβ​(x)=Fβ​(x,αβ​(x)).

Milestones, in attack order

  1. The note after Definition 3: Ψβ(x,⋅)\Psi_\beta(x,\cdot)Ψβ​(x,⋅) is a distribution function, so the β\betaβ-tail distribution exists; its mean is finite.
  2. Proposition 6: ϕβ(x)=λβ(x)αβ(x)+[1−λβ(x)]ϕβ+(x)\phi_\beta(x)=\lambda_\beta(x)\alpha_\beta(x)+[1-\lambda_\beta(x)]\phi^+_\beta(x)ϕβ​(x)=λβ​(x)αβ​(x)+[1−λβ​(x)]ϕβ+​(x) when Ψ(x,αβ(x))<1\Psi(x,\alpha_\beta(x))<1Ψ(x,αβ​(x))<1, and ϕβ(x)=αβ(x)\phi_\beta(x)=\alpha_\beta(x)ϕβ​(x)=αβ​(x) otherwise.
  3. Fβ(x,⋅)F_\beta(x,\cdot)Fβ​(x,⋅) is finite and convex.
  4. The one-sided derivatives (31): ∂+Fβ/∂α=[Ψ(x,α)−β]/(1−β)\partial^+F_\beta/\partial\alpha=[\Psi(x,\alpha)-\beta]/(1-\beta)∂+Fβ​/∂α=[Ψ(x,α)−β]/(1−β) and ∂−Fβ/∂α=[Ψ(x,α−)−β]/(1−β)\partial^-F_\beta/\partial\alpha=[\Psi(x,\alpha^-)-\beta]/(1-\beta)∂−Fβ​/∂α=[Ψ(x,α−)−β]/(1−β).
  5. Bounded level sets, and argmin⁡αFβ(x,α)={α∣Ψ(x,α−)≤β≤Ψ(x,α)}\operatorname{argmin}_\alpha F_\beta(x,\alpha)=\{\alpha\mid\Psi(x,\alpha^-)\le\beta\le\Psi(x,\alpha)\}argminα​Fβ​(x,α)={α∣Ψ(x,α−)≤β≤Ψ(x,α)}, a nonempty closed bounded interval.
  6. The least element of that set is αβ(x)\alpha_\beta(x)αβ​(x) and the greatest is αβ+(x)\alpha^+_\beta(x)αβ+​(x).

A companion item states Corollary 7: ϕβ(x)≥αβ(x)\phi_\beta(x)\ge\alpha_\beta(x)ϕβ​(x)≥αβ​(x), strictly when Ψ(x,αβ(x))<1\Psi(x,\alpha_\beta(x))<1Ψ(x,αβ​(x))<1.

Significance

Theorem 10 is what makes CVaR computable and optimizable. Since ϕβ(x)=min⁡αFβ(x,α)\phi_\beta(x)=\min_\alpha F_\beta(x,\alpha)ϕβ​(x)=minα​Fβ​(x,α), minimizing CVaR over x∈Xx\in Xx∈X is the joint minimization of Fβ(x,α)F_\beta(x,\alpha)Fβ​(x,α) over (x,α)(x,\alpha)(x,α); with a finite scenario set and a loss linear in xxx, that is a linear program, and VaR comes out as a by-product. The convexity and sublinearity of CVaR in xxx (Corollary 11), its coherence (Corollary 12) and the equivalence of CVaR-constrained and CVaR-penalized problems (Theorem 14) are all derived from it. The formula is the basis of CVaR portfolio optimization software and of a large literature on risk-averse stochastic programming.

The result has been proved since 2001 and is not open. To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof with CVaR defined independently: the CVaR items already on Prove2Me take min⁡αFβ\min_\alpha F_\betaminα​Fβ​ as the definition of CVaR, which makes (28) true by definition. This mission produces a formal proof that the tail-mean definition, with its atom splitting, agrees with the minimization formula for every integrable loss, together with reusable facts about one-sided derivatives of α↦E[f−α]+\alpha\mapsto E[f-\alpha]^+α↦E[f−α]+ and the argmin of the Rockafellar–Uryasev function.

Difficulty

The minimization side is elementary convex analysis in one variable once the one-sided derivatives are known; computing them requires passing a limit under the expectation, with the jumps of Ψ(x,⋅)\Psi(x,\cdot)Ψ(x,⋅) handled separately for right and left limits. The step that does not follow from that analysis is the identification of the minimum value with ϕβ(x)\phi_\beta(x)ϕβ​(x). When the loss has an atom at αβ(x)\alpha_\beta(x)αβ​(x) that straddles level β\betaβ, neither E{f∣f≥αβ(x)}E\{f\mid f\ge\alpha_\beta(x)\}E{f∣f≥αβ​(x)} nor E{f∣f>αβ(x)}E\{f\mid f>\alpha_\beta(x)\}E{f∣f>αβ​(x)} equals the minimum value; only the mean of the distribution with the split atom does. The obvious approach, proving the formula for continuous laws and passing to a limit, does not deliver the identity at the level of the defined objects; the identity has to be proved directly from the definition of the tail distribution, through Proposition 6.

Formalization scope

  • The outcome space is Rm\mathbb R^mRm (Fin m → ℝ) with its Borel σ-algebra and a probability measure P. The paper's support set Y⊆RmY\subseteq\mathbb R^mY⊆Rm is not modelled: a law on YYY is a law on Rm\mathbb R^mRm concentrated on YYY, and no statement uses YYY.
  • Probabilities are real numbers (P.real). Ψ(x,α−)\Psi(x,\alpha^-)Ψ(x,α−) is P{f(x,⋅)<α}P\{f(x,\cdot)<\alpha\}P{f(x,⋅)<α}, as the paper defines it in (2).
  • αβ(x)\alpha_\beta(x)αβ​(x) is the published MultistageStochastic.valueAtRisk P (f x) β (a real infimum, referenced, not redefined); αβ+(x)\alpha^+_\beta(x)αβ+​(x) is a real infimum. Both are meaningful because PPP is a probability measure and 0<β<10<\beta<10<β<1, and those hypotheses are carried wherever they appear.
  • The β\betaβ-tail distribution is a probability measure on R\mathbb RR whose distribution function is Ψβ(x,⋅)\Psi_\beta(x,\cdot)Ψβ​(x,⋅), chosen when one exists (it is then unique); ϕβ(x)\phi_\beta(x)ϕβ​(x) is its mean. Milestone 1 establishes existence and integrability.
  • "Minimum" is attainment: ϕβ(x)\phi_\beta(x)ϕβ​(x) is the least element of the range of Fβ(x,⋅)F_\beta(x,\cdot)Fβ​(x,⋅). The argmin is the set of global minimizers. "Finite" is integrability of [f(x,⋅)−α]+[f(x,\cdot)-\alpha]^+[f(x,⋅)−α]+ for each α\alphaα.
  • One-sided derivatives are derivatives within [α,∞)[\alpha,\infty)[α,∞) and (−∞,α](-\infty,\alpha](−∞,α]. The display (31) as printed on p. 14 has αβ(x)\alpha_\beta(x)αβ​(x) in place of α\alphaα; the formalization follows the derivation on p. 15.
  • The goal and Corollary 7 carry all standing assumptions of §2; milestones assume only what they use (integrability, measurability of the single loss f(x,⋅)f(x,\cdot)f(x,⋅)), which makes them stronger.

Defining CVaR as min⁡αFβ(x,α)\min_\alpha F_\beta(x,\alpha)minα​Fβ​(x,α), or as the quantile average, or by formula (21), would make the goal or a milestone true by definition; CVaR is defined here as the mean of the β\betaβ-tail distribution, and any such redefinition is ruled out.

A complete development needs: right-continuity and limits of distribution functions, dominated convergence for the difference quotients of α↦E[f−α]+\alpha\mapsto E[f-\alpha]^+α↦E[f−α]+, the uniqueness of a probability measure on R\mathbb RR with given distribution function, and one-variable convex analysis linking one-sided derivatives to minimizers. The derivative and argmin lemmas are reusable for any Rockafellar–Uryasev-type objective. Proofs of any milestone, and Lean lemmas that bridge valueAtRisk (stated with ENNReal) and P.real, are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. T. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev, Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions, Research Report #2001-5, ISE Dept., University of Florida, April 2001; published in Journal of Banking & Finance 26 (2002) 1443–1471. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00271-6
  • R. T. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev, Optimization of conditional value-at-risk, Journal of Risk 2 (2000) 21–41. https://doi.org/10.21314/JOR.2000.038
  • P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J.-M. Eber and D. Heath, Coherent measures of risk, Mathematical Finance 9 (1999) 203–228. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9965.00068
  • C. Acerbi and D. Tasche, On the coherence of expected shortfall, Journal of Banking & Finance 26 (2002) 1487–1503. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00283-2
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173
9 thms3 active usersReviewed
Linear OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

An O(√nL)-Iteration Homogeneous and Self-Dual Linear Programming Algorithm 2: τᵏ Stays Bounded Below If (LP) Has an Optimum, and Otherwise κᵏ Stays Bounded Below and τᵏ/θᵏ Is BoundedResearch Paper

Motivation

Interior-point methods for linear programming are usually analysed under two assumptions: a strictly feasible starting point is known, and the problem has an optimal solution. In practice neither is known in advance. The homogeneous self-dual embedding of Ye, Todd and Mizuno (Math. Oper. Res. 19(1), 1994) removes both assumptions. It embeds a standard-form linear program and its dual into one artificial program that always has an obvious interior starting point. A solution of the artificial program either yields optimal solutions of the original pair or certifies that one of them is infeasible. The embedding underlies the infeasibility detection of several interior-point LP and conic solvers.

The paper's main result is an O(nL)O(\sqrt n L)O(n​L) iteration bound. Section 4, "Analysis of the output", asks a different, practical question: what can be read off the iterates if the algorithm is stopped early, at an approximate solution? Theorem 8 answers it. This mission formalizes Theorem 8 and the results its proof uses.

Setting

Let A∈Rm×nA\in\mathbb R^{m\times n}A∈Rm×n, b∈Rmb\in\mathbb R^mb∈Rm, c∈Rnc\in\mathbb R^nc∈Rn. The primal and dual programs are

(LP) min⁡{cTx:Ax=b, x≥0},(LD) max⁡{bTy:ATy≤c},\text{(LP)}\ \min\{c^Tx : Ax=b,\ x\ge0\},\qquad \text{(LD)}\ \max\{b^Ty : A^Ty\le c\},(LP) min{cTx:Ax=b, x≥0},(LD) max{bTy:ATy≤c},

with dual slack s=c−ATys=c-A^Tys=c−ATy. An optimal solution pair is an optimal xˉ\bar xxˉ of (LP) together with an optimal (yˉ,sˉ)(\bar y,\bar s)(yˉ​,sˉ) of (LD).

Write eee for the all-ones vector and set bˉ=b−Ae\bar b=b-Aebˉ=b−Ae, cˉ=c−e\bar c=c-ecˉ=c−e, zˉ=cTe+1\bar z=c^Te+1zˉ=cTe+1. The homogeneous self-dual program (HLP), in the paper's normalization y0=0y^0=0y0=0, x0=s0=ex^0=s^0=ex0=s0=e, has variables (y,x,τ,θ,s,κ)(y,x,\tau,\theta,s,\kappa)(y,x,τ,θ,s,κ) with y∈Rmy\in\mathbb R^my∈Rm, x,s∈Rnx,s\in\mathbb R^nx,s∈Rn, τ,θ,κ∈R\tau,\theta,\kappa\in\mathbb Rτ,θ,κ∈R:

min⁡(n+1)θs.t.Ax−bτ+bˉθ=0,s=−ATy+cτ−cˉθ ≥0,κ=bTy−cTx+zˉθ ≥0,−bˉTy+cˉTx−zˉτ=−(n+1),x≥0, τ≥0.\begin{array}{rl} \min & (n+1)\theta\\ \text{s.t.} & Ax-b\tau+\bar b\theta=0,\\ & s=-A^Ty+c\tau-\bar c\theta\ \ge0,\\ & \kappa=b^Ty-c^Tx+\bar z\theta\ \ge0,\\ & -\bar b^Ty+\bar c^Tx-\bar z\tau=-(n+1),\qquad x\ge0,\ \tau\ge0. \end{array}mins.t.​(n+1)θAx−bτ+bˉθ=0,s=−ATy+cτ−cˉθ ≥0,κ=bTy−cTx+zˉθ ≥0,−bˉTy+cˉTx−zˉτ=−(n+1),x≥0, τ≥0.​

Fh\mathcal F_hFh​ is its feasible set and Fh0\mathcal F_h^0Fh0​ the subset with x,τ,s,κ>0x,\tau,s,\kappa>0x,τ,s,κ>0. A self-complementary solution is an optimal solution of (HLP). A strictly self-complementary one also has θ=0\theta=0θ=0 and (x+s;τ+κ)>0(x+s;\tau+\kappa)>0(x+s;τ+κ)>0. For a point of (HLP) put μ=(xTs+τκ)/(n+1)\mu=(x^Ts+\tau\kappa)/(n+1)μ=(xTs+τκ)/(n+1), and for β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1) let

N(β)={z∈Fh0:∥(Xsτκ)−μe∥2≤βμ}.\mathcal N(\beta)=\Bigl\{z\in\mathcal F_h^0 : \Bigl\|\begin{pmatrix}Xs\\ \tau\kappa\end{pmatrix}-\mu e\Bigr\|_2\le\beta\mu\Bigr\}.N(β)={z∈Fh0​:​(Xsτκ​)−μe​2​≤βμ}.

The predictor–corrector algorithm with β=1/4\beta=1/4β=1/4 starts at z0=(0,e,1,1,e,1)z^0=(0,e,1,1,e,1)z0=(0,e,1,1,e,1). At even kkk (predictor step) it solves the Newton system (11)–(12) with target γμk=0\gamma\mu^k=0γμk=0 and moves along the direction by the largest step that stays in N(2β)\mathcal N(2\beta)N(2β) (13). At odd kkk (corrector step) it solves the system with target μk\mu^kμk and takes a full step.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8 (p. 63)

For every predictor–corrector sequence (yk,xk,τk,θk,sk,κk)(y^k,x^k,\tau^k,\theta^k,s^k,\kappa^k)(yk,xk,τk,θk,sk,κk):

  1. if (LP) possesses an optimal solution, then for every optimal pair xˉ,(yˉ,sˉ)\bar x,(\bar y,\bar s)xˉ,(yˉ​,sˉ)
τk≥1−2βeTxˉ+eTsˉ+1for all k;\tau^k\ge\frac{1-2\beta}{e^T\bar x+e^T\bar s+1}\quad\text{for all }k;τk≥eTxˉ+eTsˉ+11−2β​for all k;
  1. otherwise there is a fixed ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, independent of kkk, with
κk≥(1−2β)εn+1,1−2β2(n+1)≤1−2βκk≤τkθk≤1+2βκk≤(n+1)(1+2β)(1−2β)ε\kappa^k\ge\frac{(1-2\beta)\varepsilon}{n+1},\qquad \frac{1-2\beta}{2(n+1)}\le\frac{1-2\beta}{\kappa^k}\le\frac{\tau^k}{\theta^k}\le\frac{1+2\beta}{\kappa^k}\le\frac{(n+1)(1+2\beta)}{(1-2\beta)\varepsilon}κk≥n+1(1−2β)ε​,2(n+1)1−2β​≤κk1−2β​≤θkτk​≤κk1+2β​≤(1−2β)ε(n+1)(1+2β)​

for all kkk.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them:

  • the predictor-step and corrector-step claims from the proof of Theorem 6 (p. 62);
  • the iterates lie in N(2β)\mathcal N(2\beta)N(2β) (p. 63);
  • Theorem 2 (iv): the optimal value of (HLP) is 000 and (n+1)θ=xTs+τκ(n+1)\theta=x^Ts+\tau\kappa(n+1)θ=xTs+τκ on Fh\mathcal F_hFh​ (stated for general x0,s0>0x^0,s^0>0x0,s0>0, y0y^0y0);
  • equation (9): eTx+eTs+τ+κ−(n+1)θ=n+1e^Tx+e^Ts+\tau+\kappa-(n+1)\theta=n+1eTx+eTs+τ+κ−(n+1)θ=n+1;
  • an optimal pair scaled by α=(n+1)/(eTxˉ+eTsˉ+1)\alpha=(n+1)/(e^T\bar x+e^T\bar s+1)α=(n+1)/(eTxˉ+eTsˉ+1) is a self-complementary solution;
  • the orthogonality identity (xk)Ts∗+(sk)Tx∗+κkτ∗=(n+1)θk(x^k)^Ts^*+(s^k)^Tx^*+\kappa^k\tau^*=(n+1)\theta^k(xk)Ts∗+(sk)Tx∗+κkτ∗=(n+1)θk;
  • Theorem 2 (v), existence of a strictly self-complementary solution;
  • Theorem 3 (i) and (ii), reading such a solution back into (LP) and (LD);
  • the bound κk≤(n+1)+(n+1)θk≤2(n+1)\kappa^k\le(n+1)+(n+1)\theta^k\le2(n+1)κk≤(n+1)+(n+1)θk≤2(n+1).

Significance

Theorem 8 is a stopping criterion. Either τk\tau^kτk stays bounded away from zero, which happens exactly when (LP) has an optimal solution, or τk\tau^kτk and θk\theta^kθk go to zero at the same rate while κk\kappa^kκk stays bounded away from zero. An implementation can therefore watch τk/θk\tau^k/\theta^kτk/θk and κk\kappa^kκk and decide the status of (LP) from an approximate iterate, without the exact rounding procedure needed for the O(nL)O(\sqrt nL)O(n​L) bound. The bounds hold for real data, with no integrality and no bit length.

Theorem 8 has a published proof on one page, building on the self-duality facts of §2 and the Mizuno–Todd–Ye step analysis. None of it is machine-checked. A complete development would give a verified account of the homogeneous self-dual embedding, including:

  • the skew-symmetric orthogonality argument;
  • Goldman–Tucker strict complementarity for (HLP);
  • the predictor–corrector neighborhood invariants.

These are the ingredients of every analysis of the embedding. Homogeneous self-dual programs appear on Prove2Me in other conventions (Vanderbei's (22.4) and (22.21), Matoušek's (SD)), but their statements concern different programs: no artificial variable θ\thetaθ, no normalizing row. They do not formalize any statement here.

Difficulty

The two branches of Theorem 8 rest on facts of different depth.

  • The first branch needs only an optimal pair of (LP)/(LD), lifted into (HLP), and the identity (xk)Ts∗+(sk)Tx∗+κkτ∗=(n+1)θk(x^k)^Ts^*+(s^k)^Tx^*+\kappa^k\tau^*=(n+1)\theta^k(xk)Ts∗+(sk)Tx∗+κkτ∗=(n+1)θk.
  • The "otherwise" branch needs an optimal solution of (HLP) with κ∗>0\kappa^*>0κ∗>0. Its existence is not elementary. It comes from strict complementarity (Theorem 2 (v)) together with the characterization of Theorem 3 (i). Strict complementarity for linear programs is the Goldman–Tucker theorem, which Mathlib does not contain.
  • The neighborhood invariants behind "the sequence is in N(2β)\mathcal N(2\beta)N(2β)" are the Mizuno–Todd–Ye estimates. They need the orthogonality dxTds+dτdκ=0d_x^Td_s+d_\tau d_\kappa=0dxT​ds​+dτ​dκ​=0 of the Newton directions and a careful quadratic bound on ∥Dxds∥\|D_xd_s\|∥Dx​ds​∥.

The obvious first idea is to treat Theorem 8 as a consequence of Theorem 6. It fails: Theorem 8 is about every iterate of an infinite run and uses no iteration count. The constant ε\varepsilonε depends on the instance and is not explicit.

Formalization scope

  • Data. Real data A : Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ, b : Fin m → ℝ, c : Fin n → ℝ, with no rank assumption and no integrality. (LP)/(LD) feasibility and optimality are built on the published general-form LP definition LinearOptimization_DualLP. "(LP) has a solution (feasible and bounded)" in Theorem 3 is read as "(LP) has an optimal solution".
  • Points. A point of (HLP) is a structure with fields y x τ θ s κ. The slacks s,κs,\kappas,κ are pinned to the constraint expressions. (HLP) is defined for general (x0,y0,s0)(x^0,y^0,s^0)(x0,y0,s0); the instance (7) is obtained by substitution. Optimality means minimizing the objective over Fh\mathcal F_hFh​, not "θ=0\theta=0θ=0", so Theorem 2 (iv) is not built into the definition.
  • Norm. The norm in N(β)\mathcal N(\beta)N(β) is the Euclidean norm on Rn+1\mathbb R^{n+1}Rn+1, written out explicitly.
  • Constants. β=1/4\beta=1/4β=1/4 is a named constant. The statements show 1−2β1-2\beta1−2β and 1+2β1+2\beta1+2β as printed.
  • The iteration. It is a relation IsPCSequence: z0=(0,e,1,1,e,1)z^0=(0,e,1,1,e,1)z0=(0,e,1,1,e,1), and each step is zk+1=zk+αdz^{k+1}=z^k+\alpha dzk+1=zk+αd for some solution ddd of (11)–(12). The relation is needed because dyd_ydy​ is not unique when AAA is rank-deficient.
  • Step size. The predictor step size must be the greatest element of the set in (13), as printed. On an instance where that maximum is not attained, no predictor–corrector sequence exists and Theorem 8 holds vacuously there. A sorry-free check shows that z0∈N(1/4)z^0\in\mathcal N(1/4)z0∈N(1/4) for all data, so the sequence does start.
  • The two branches. They are two implications with complementary hypotheses, "(LP) has an optimal solution" and its negation. The negation covers infeasible and unbounded (LP) alike.
  • Quantifiers. The first branch quantifies over all optimal pairs. In the second, ∃ε>0\exists\varepsilon>0∃ε>0 precedes ∀k\forall k∀k.
  • Divisions. The chain keeps the printed divisions. All denominators (κk\kappa^kκk, θk=μk\theta^k=\mu^kθk=μk) are positive on N(2β)\mathcal N(2\beta)N(2β), so Lean's x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0 convention plays no role.
  • Ruled out. A formalization in which ε\varepsilonε may depend on kkk, or in which the first branch asserts the bound for only some optimal pair, would make Theorem 8 trivial or weaker. Both are excluded.

Needed infrastructure: LP duality and Goldman–Tucker strict complementarity for real standard-form programs, and the skew-symmetric orthogonality lemma. These are reusable well beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative arguments (e.g. via the central-path limit) for the existence of κ∗>0\kappa^*>0κ∗>0, are welcome.

Selected references

  • Y. Ye, M. J. Todd, S. Mizuno, An O(nL)O(\sqrt nL)O(n​L)-Iteration Homogeneous and Self-Dual Linear Programming Algorithm, Mathematics of Operations Research 19(1), 53–67, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.19.1.53
  • S. Mizuno, M. J. Todd, Y. Ye, On Adaptive-Step Primal-Dual Interior-Point Algorithms for Linear Programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 18(4), 964–981, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.18.4.964
  • O. Güler, Y. Ye, Convergence behavior of interior-point algorithms, Mathematical Programming 60, 215–228, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01580610
  • A. J. Goldman, A. W. Tucker, Theory of linear programming, in Linear Inequalities and Related Systems, Annals of Mathematics Studies 38, 53–97, 1956. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400881987-005
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ProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Implicit Renewal Theory and Tails of Solutions of Random Equations 2: Kesten's Theorem for R = Q + MR — Unique Stationary Law, Power Tails with Explicit C±, and C₊ + C₋ > 0 iff Q ≢ (1 − M)cResearch Paper

Motivation

The random difference equation

R=LQ+MR,R independent of (Q,M),R \overset{\mathcal L}{=} Q + MR,\qquad R \text{ independent of } (Q,M),R=LQ+MR,R independent of (Q,M),

describes the stationary state of the affine recursion Rn=Qn+MnRn−1R_n = Q_n + M_n R_{n-1}Rn​=Qn​+Mn​Rn−1​ driven by independent copies of a random pair (Q,M)(Q,M)(Q,M). It appears wherever a quantity is multiplied by a random factor and then receives a random increment: the discounted value of a stream of random cash flows (a perpetuity), the stationary volatility of ARCH and GARCH models in financial econometrics (de Haan, Resnick, Rootzén and de Vries 1989), random walks in random environment, and the stationary laws of random coefficient autoregressions. In all of these, the question that matters for risk is the size of the tail P(R>t)P(R>t)P(R>t).

Timeline:

  • 1973. Kesten proves, in a multivariate setting, that the stationary solution has power-law tails, P(R>t)∼C+t−κP(R>t)\sim C_+t^{-\kappa}P(R>t)∼C+​t−κ, where κ\kappaκ solves E∣M∣κ=1\mathbf E|M|^\kappa=1E∣M∣κ=1; the constants are not identified, and the proof of the key renewal step (his Theorem 4) runs to nine pages.
  • 1979. Vervaat gives a full account of existence, uniqueness and moments of the solution in dimension one.
  • 1980–1981. Grincevičius proves a maximal inequality of Lévy type for the partial sums of the recursion.
  • 1986. Letac formulates a general principle for existence and uniqueness of solutions of random equations R=LΨ(R)R\overset{\mathcal L}{=}\Psi(R)R=LΨ(R).
  • 1991. Goldie proves an implicit renewal theorem (Theorem 2.3, the subject of the first mission of this series) and deduces from it a new proof of Kesten's one-dimensional theorem, with explicit formulas for the constants C±C_\pmC±​ and a necessary and sufficient condition for them not to vanish (Theorem 4.1).
  • 2016. Buraczewski, Damek and Mikosch survey the theory, in which Kesten's theorem in Goldie's form is the central result.

Setting

Let (Q,M)(Q,M)(Q,M) be a pair of real random variables with joint law μ\muμ on R2\mathbb R^2R2. No independence between QQQ and MMM and no sign condition on either is assumed. A probability law ρ\rhoρ on R\mathbb RR is a law for RRR satisfying (1.1) if the law of Q+MRQ+MRQ+MR equals ρ\rhoρ when RRR has law ρ\rhoρ and is independent of (Q,M)(Q,M)(Q,M).

A law on R\mathbb RR is arithmetic if it is concentrated on a lattice {nλ:n∈Z}\{n\lambda:n\in\mathbb Z\}{nλ:n∈Z} for some λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, and nonarithmetic otherwise. For κ>0\kappa>0κ>0, the conditions of Lemma 2.2 on MMM are

E∣M∣κ=1,E∣M∣κlog⁡+∣M∣<∞,\mathbf E|M|^\kappa = 1,\qquad \mathbf E|M|^\kappa\log^+|M|<\infty,E∣M∣κ=1,E∣M∣κlog+∣M∣<∞,

and that the conditional law of log⁡∣M∣\log|M|log∣M∣ given M≠0M\ne0M=0 is nonarithmetic. Under them

m:=E∣M∣κlog⁡∣M∣∈(0,∞).m := \mathbf E|M|^\kappa\log|M| \in (0,\infty).m:=E∣M∣κlog∣M∣∈(0,∞).

With x+=x∨0x^+=x\vee0x+=x∨0 and x−=(−x)∨0x^-=(-x)\vee0x−=(−x)∨0, the constants of Theorem 4.1 are, when M≥0M\ge0M≥0 a.s.,

C±=E(((Q+MR)±)κ−((MR)±)κ)κm,C_\pm = \frac{\mathbf E\big(((Q+MR)^\pm)^\kappa-((MR)^\pm)^\kappa\big)}{\kappa m},C±​=κmE(((Q+MR)±)κ−((MR)±)κ)​,

and otherwise C+=C−=12κmE(∣Q+MR∣κ−∣MR∣κ)C_+=C_-=\frac{1}{2\kappa m}\mathbf E\big(|Q+MR|^\kappa-|MR|^\kappa\big)C+​=C−​=2κm1​E(∣Q+MR∣κ−∣MR∣κ), where RRR has the stationary law and is independent of (Q,M)(Q,M)(Q,M).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1

Assume the conditions of Lemma 2.2 and E∣Q∣κ<∞\mathbf E|Q|^\kappa<\inftyE∣Q∣κ<∞. Then there is a unique law ρ\rhoρ for RRR satisfying (1.1); the expectations defining C±C_\pmC±​ are finite; and

lim⁡t→∞tκP(R>t)=C+,lim⁡t→∞tκP(R<−t)=C−,\lim_{t\to\infty} t^\kappa P(R>t) = C_+,\qquad \lim_{t\to\infty} t^\kappa P(R<-t) = C_-,t→∞lim​tκP(R>t)=C+​,t→∞lim​tκP(R<−t)=C−​,

with C±C_\pmC±​ as above. Finally

C++C−>0  ⟺  P(Q=(1−M)c)<1  for each fixed c∈R.C_++C_->0 \iff P\big(Q=(1-M)c\big)<1 \ \text{ for each fixed } c\in\mathbb R.C+​+C−​>0⟺P(Q=(1−M)c)<1  for each fixed c∈R.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them:

  1. Corollary 2.4: the implicit renewal theorem with the moment conditions (2.16)–(2.17) and constants (2.18)–(2.20), for a general random function Ψ\PsiΨ in place of t↦Q+Mtt\mapsto Q+Mtt↦Q+Mt.
  2. Lemma 9.4: tail-difference integrals against tκ−1dtt^{\kappa-1}dttκ−1dt versus moment differences.
  3. The elementary inequalities (9.26)–(9.27).
  4. (4.8): for κ>1\kappa>1κ>1, E∣R∣κ−1<∞\mathbf E|R|^{\kappa-1}<\inftyE∣R∣κ−1<∞ with an explicit bound.
  5. (2.16)–(2.17) for Ψ(t)=Q+Mt\Psi(t)=Q+MtΨ(t)=Q+Mt: the moment differences are integrable.
  6. Proposition 4.2 (Grincevičius's maximal inequality) and its consequence (4.6).
  7. The lower bound P(∣Πn∣>et for some n)≥δe−κtP(|\Pi_n|>e^t\text{ for some }n)\ge\delta e^{-\kappa t}P(∣Πn​∣>et for some n)≥δe−κt for the products Πn=M1⋯Mn\Pi_n=M_1\cdots M_nΠn​=M1​⋯Mn​.
  8. Under the condition P(Q=(1−M)c)<1P(Q=(1-M)c)<1P(Q=(1−M)c)<1 for each ccc, tκP(∣R∣>t)t^\kappa P(|R|>t)tκP(∣R∣>t) stays bounded away from 000.

Significance

The result. Theorem 4.1 identifies the tail exponent of the stationary solution as the root κ\kappaκ of E∣M∣κ=1\mathbf E|M|^\kappa=1E∣M∣κ=1, which depends on MMM alone, and expresses the tail constants as expectations under the stationary law. The constants yield the bounds of Corollary 4.3 and closed forms when κ\kappaκ is an integer (Corollaries 4.4, 4.5). The dichotomy between M≥0M\ge0M≥0 a.s. (different left and right constants) and P(M<0)>0P(M<0)>0P(M<0)>0 (equal constants) is visible only through these formulas. The positivity criterion tells when the power tail is really there: it fails exactly when the recursion has a deterministic fixed point ccc. Tail estimates for GARCH processes, perpetuities in insurance mathematics and random walks in random environment are applications of this statement.

Formalizing it. The theorem has been proved since 1973 and in the present form since 1991; it is open only as a formalization. No machine-checked proof of Kesten's theorem, of the implicit renewal theorem, or of the underlying nonarithmetic key renewal theorem on the whole line is known to this mission. The work consists of formalizing Goldie's proof, which assembles the implicit renewal theorem with moment estimates, a maximal inequality and a Cramér–Lundberg-type lower bound for a random walk with negative drift.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is to write R=∑k≥1Πk−1QkR=\sum_{k\ge1}\Pi_{k-1}Q_kR=∑k≥1​Πk−1​Qk​ and estimate the tail of each term. It fails because E∣M∣κ=1\mathbf E|M|^\kappa=1E∣M∣κ=1 makes every term contribute tails of the same order t−κt^{-\kappa}t−κ, and the sum of infinitely many such contributions is exactly what has to be computed; termwise bounds give the right exponent at best, not the limit or the constant. A second natural idea, applying the renewal theorem directly to P(R>t)P(R>t)P(R>t), needs integrability of a tail difference that is not evident, because E∣R∣κ\mathbf E|R|^\kappaE∣R∣κ is infinite whenever C++C−>0C_++C_->0C+​+C−​>0; the moment differences ((Q+MR)+)κ−((MR)+)κ((Q+MR)^+)^\kappa-((MR)^+)^\kappa((Q+MR)+)κ−((MR)+)κ must be controlled without either term being integrable. The positivity half is a separate problem: the formula for C±C_\pmC±​ is a difference of two infinite-looking quantities, and showing it is positive requires a lower bound on the tail that does not come from the formula.

Formalization scope

Everything is stated in terms of laws. The joint law of (Q,M)(Q,M)(Q,M) is a probability measure μ\muμ on R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R (first coordinate QQQ, second MMM); a law for RRR satisfying (1.1) is a probability measure ρ\rhoρ on R\mathbb RR that equals the image of μ⊗ρ\mu\otimes\rhoμ⊗ρ under ((q,m),r)↦q+mr((q,m),r)\mapsto q+mr((q,m),r)↦q+mr, and uniqueness is among all probability measures on R\mathbb RR, with no moment restriction. Expectations involving RRR and (Q,M)(Q,M)(Q,M) are integrals against μ⊗ρ\mu\otimes\rhoμ⊗ρ, which is what makes RRR independent of (Q,M)(Q,M)(Q,M). The conditions of Lemma 2.2 are stated for the law of MMM, with E∣M∣κ\mathbf E|M|^\kappaE∣M∣κ and E∣M∣κlog⁡+∣M∣\mathbf E|M|^\kappa\log^+|M|E∣M∣κlog+∣M∣ as lower Lebesgue integrals and the conditional law of log⁡∣M∣\log|M|log∣M∣ taken given M≠0M\neq0M=0. "P(R>t)∼C+t−κP(R>t)\sim C_+t^{-\kappa}P(R>t)∼C+​t−κ" is the limit statement tκP(R>t)→C+t^\kappa P(R>t)\to C_+tκP(R>t)→C+​, which the paper prescribes and which includes C+=0C_+=0C+​=0. Milestones on sequences use independent copies (Qn,Mn)(Q_n,M_n)(Qn​,Mn​) on an arbitrary probability space carrying them, stored 0-based.

The statement does not reduce to a trivial one: the ratio form P(R>t)/(C+t−κ)→1P(R>t)/(C_+t^{-\kappa})\to1P(R>t)/(C+​t−κ)→1 (undefined when C+=0C_+=0C+​=0), existence of some fixed point without uniqueness, the positivity criterion as a one-way implication, and tail limits asserted for an arbitrary random variable rather than for the stationary law are all excluded. One correction to the source is built in: Lemma 9.4's (9.17) is printed as an equality, which fails for independent identically distributed non-degenerate XXX, YYY; the inequality the proof establishes is stated.

A complete development needs: convolution and image measures of products on R2×R\mathbb R^2\times\mathbb RR2×R; the key renewal theorem on the whole line for nonarithmetic laws with positive mean (the content of the first mission of this series); existence and uniqueness for contractive random affine maps; Lévy-type maximal inequalities; and ladder-height estimates for random walks with negative drift whose steps may equal −∞-\infty−∞. The renewal-theoretic and random-walk components are reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions of any milestone, and of supporting lemmas such as the moment bounds for perpetuities, are welcome.

Selected references

  • C. M. Goldie, Implicit renewal theory and tails of solutions of random equations, Annals of Applied Probability 1(1):126–166, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005985
  • H. Kesten, Random difference equations and renewal theory for products of random matrices, Acta Mathematica 131:207–248, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02392040
  • W. Vervaat, On a stochastic difference equation and a representation of non-negative infinitely divisible random variables, Advances in Applied Probability 11(4):750–783, 1979. https://doi.org/10.2307/1426858
  • L. de Haan, S. I. Resnick, H. Rootzén and C. G. de Vries, Extremal behaviour of solutions to a stochastic difference equation with applications to ARCH processes, Stochastic Processes and their Applications 32(2):213–224, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4149(89)90076-8
  • D. Buraczewski, E. Damek and T. Mikosch, Stochastic Models with Power-Law Tails: The Equation X = AX + B, Springer, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29679-1
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OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models V: If σ_T ≤ Σσ_i and σ_T ≥ σ_i, Pooling Strictly Lowers the Expected Cost of Logit Newsvendors with Normal DemandsResearch Paper

Motivation

Inventory pooling lets several locations serve their combined demand from one stock of goods. Classical newsvendor analysis predicts lower optimal cost when pooling reduces demand variation, but the reduction can vanish when demands are perfectly correlated. Xuanming Su asks whether that conclusion survives when managers make noisy stocking decisions rather than always choose the optimum. In the published 2008 article, Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models, the decision noise follows a continuous logit model, in which better quantities are chosen more often. Proposition 7 gives conditions under which pooling strictly lowers expected cost, including a case where classical pooling has no cost gain. Su, 2008

The question matters for multilocation inventory systems because an order quantity is a decision as well as a response to demand. Pooling changes both the distribution of demand faced by the system and the number of independently chosen orders. A comparison based only on optimal costs leaves the second change out. This mission isolates the paper's mathematical claim about the combined effect of demand and decision variation. Su, 2008, §9

Setting

There are nnn locations. Demand at location iii is normally distributed with mean μi\mu_iμi​ and standard deviation σi\sigma_iσi​. The total demand has normal law with mean μT=∑iμi\mu_T=\sum_i\mu_iμT​=∑i​μi​ and standard deviation σT\sigma_TσT​. An order of xxx against a realized demand DDD incurs holding cost h(x−D)+h(x-D)^+h(x−D)+ for unsold units and backlog cost b(D−x)+b(D-x)^+b(D−x)+ for unmet demand. Its expected cost is γ(x)\gamma(x)γ(x). The decentralized system incurs one such cost at each location; the pooled system orders once for total demand. The published InventoryControl_newsboy definition supplies this Gaussian expected cost, with the same orientation of holding and backlog penalties as Su's equations (29) and (31). Su, 2008, p. 584

For an expected profit function π\piπ on a decision set SSS, the logit choice density is proportional to eπ(x)/βe^{\pi(x)/\beta}eπ(x)/β on SSS, where β>0\beta>0β>0 is a common bounded-rationality parameter. Larger β\betaβ spreads choices more widely; smaller positive β\betaβ concentrates them near high-profit choices. For normal demand, the decision domain is all of R\mathbb RR. With p=h+bp=h+bp=h+b and c=hc=hc=h, expected profit differs from minus expected cost by a constant independent of the order. The same logit law is therefore obtained from utility −γ(x)-\gamma(x)−γ(x). The random behavioral order is denoted XibX_i^bXib​ at location iii and XTbX_T^bXTb​ for the pool. Su, 2008, pp. 571–572, 584

Formalization targets

Strict pooling reduction

The goal is Proposition 7. Under positive holding and backlog costs, one common positive β\betaβ, at least two locations, positive individual standard deviations, and

σT≤∑i=1nσi,σT≥σifor every i,\sigma_T\leq\sum_{i=1}^{n}\sigma_i, \qquad \sigma_T\geq\sigma_i\quad\text{for every }i,σT​≤i=1∑n​σi​,σT​≥σi​for every i,

the claim is

E[γT(XTb)]<∑i=1nE[γi(Xib)].\mathbb E\bigl[\gamma_T(X_T^b)\bigr] <\sum_{i=1}^{n}\mathbb E\bigl[\gamma_i(X_i^b)\bigr].E[γT​(XTb​)]<i=1∑n​E[γi​(Xib​)].

The first standard-deviation inequality is automatic for the sum of jointly normal demands. The second excludes a total demand whose standard deviation is smaller than an individual location's. The result still includes perfect positive correlation, where the first inequality is an equality. Su, 2008, Proposition 7, p. 585

Supporting statements

Five milestones record the source's route to that comparison: invariance of the choice distribution under an order-preserving affine change of quantity (Lemma 1), invariance under an additive shift in utility (Lemma 2), standardization of the Gaussian newsvendor objective (equation (63)), the optimum of the canonical standard-normal newsvendor and the nonpositivity of its profit, and the comparison of its expected values at different positive scales. The milestone text preserves the wording of the printed article; the precise Lean conditions and corrections are stated with the items. Su, 2008, pp. 572, 587–588

Significance

The strict inequality separates two mechanisms of pooling. Demand aggregation can reduce variability, while a single pooled order also avoids accumulating the costs of several noisy decisions. Proposition 7 shows that the latter mechanism can make the cost reduction strict even when perfect correlation removes the usual variance benefit. It provides a condition that can be checked from individual and total standard deviations, rather than requiring an explicit covariance matrix in the final comparison. Su, 2008, pp. 584–585

The result is proved in the paper; the remaining task is a machine-checked formalization of its definitions and argument. The Gaussian expected-cost object is already published on Prove2Me, while the continuous logit law and this behavioral pooling theorem are new to this mission. The invariance statements and canonical profit comparison are reusable wherever a continuous logit rule acts on a transformed one-dimensional objective.

Difficulty

The usual pooling comparison evaluates cost at an optimal order. Here each system draws its order from a different continuous probability law, and the cost to compare is averaged over those choices. Comparing σT\sigma_TσT​ with ∑iσi\sum_i\sigma_i∑i​σi​ alone does not compare the logit distributions; in particular, it gives equality under perfect positive correlation while the target is strict. A formal development must also show that the normalizing integrals and the resulting cost expectations are genuine finite integrals for every set of parameters covered by the theorem.

Formalization scope

The Lean model uses Mathlib's real Gaussian law with variance σ2\sigma^2σ2 and the published InventoryControl_newsboy.newsboyCost for equations (29) and (31). It records the choice density, CDF, expectation, canonical profit, and behavioral expected cost as separate definitions. The behavioral density uses e−γ/βe^{-\gamma/\beta}e−γ/β on R\mathbb RR; the utility shift from profit is covered by Lemma 2. The theorem specifies normal marginals and a normal total with mean ∑iμi\sum_i\mu_i∑i​μi​ and standard deviation σT\sigma_TσT​. Every jointly normal demand vector in the paper yields these laws, and the final comparison uses no further feature of its joint distribution.

The conditions h>0h>0h>0, b>0b>0b>0, and β>0\beta>0β>0 are standing readings needed for the continuous choice law on the unbounded domain. Proposition 7 additionally states n≥2n\geq2n≥2 and σi>0\sigma_i>0σi​>0: for one location the alleged strict comparison becomes equality, while zero variance makes the paper's continuous density on a point support undefined. Lemma 1 requires positive affine scale because a negative scale reverses CDF order, and its two invariance lemmas require a finite positive normalizer. Equation (66) is read with min⁡(Z,z)\min(Z,z)min(Z,z), as dictated by the surrounding formulas; the printed display drops the word “min.” These corrections and the cost-based choice convention are recorded item by item in the moderation notes.

No optimizer is supplied as a free variable, and no zero normalizer is allowed to turn a logit expectation into a trivial zero. Useful solver contributions include proofs that the cost-based logit normalizer and expected cost are integrable, Gaussian change-of-variables lemmas, and the strict scale comparison. These analytic facts can serve other continuous-choice models.

Selected references

  • Xuanming Su, Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 10(4):566–589, 2008. DOI: 10.1287/msom.1070.0200.
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Bandit AlgorithmsStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Gittins Index for Multiarmed Bandits 2: A Policy Falls Short of the Gittins Policy by at Most Its Expected Discounted Gap Between the Greatest Gittins Index and That of the Bandit It PlaysResearch Paper

Motivation

The multiarmed bandit problem asks how to allocate a single resource, one play at a time, among several alternative projects whose states evolve only when they are worked on. It models the scheduling of jobs on a single machine, the design of sequential clinical trials and many problems of research planning. Gittins and Jones showed that it is optimal to play, at each time, a project of greatest Gittins index, a number computed from that project alone (Gittins and Jones 1974; Gittins 1979).

In practice the Gittins index policy is often replaced by a heuristic: indices are computed approximately, or a policy is constrained by operational rules. A practitioner then needs to know how much value is lost. R. Weber's paper On the Gittins index for multiarmed bandits (Ann. Appl. Probab. 1992) gives a short proof of the index theorem through prevailing charges, and in its Section 5 derives from it two suboptimality bounds. This mission formalizes the second of them, Theorem 3, which bounds the loss of an arbitrary policy using Gittins indices only.

Timeline. Gittins and Jones (1974) and Gittins (1979) prove optimality of the index policy by an interchange argument; Whittle (1980) gives a proof by retirement options; Glazebrook (1982) bounds the suboptimality of policies in terms of Gittins indices, the bound Weber calls "usually weaker than (6)"; Glazebrook (1990) gives the prevailing-charge bound that is Weber's Theorem 2; Weber (1992) proves the index theorem by prevailing charges and states Theorems 2–4.

Setting

There are kkk bandit processes. Bandit iii has a state xi(t)x_i(t)xi​(t) in a state space SSS; at each epoch t=0,1,2,…t = 0, 1, 2, \dotst=0,1,2,… the gambler plays one bandit j(t)j(t)j(t), receives a reward with mean r(xj(t)(t))r(x_{j(t)}(t))r(xj(t)​(t)), the state of bandit j(t)j(t)j(t) moves according to a Markov transition kernel PPP, and the states of all other bandits are unchanged. Rewards are nonnegative and uniformly bounded, and 0<β<10 < \beta < 10<β<1 is a discount factor. A policy π\piπ chooses j(t)j(t)j(t), possibly at random, as a function of everything observed so far. Its value from the initial state vector xxx is the expected total-discounted reward

Vπ(x)=Eπ[∑t=0∞βtr(xj(t)(t)) ∣ x(0)=x].(1)V_\pi(x) = E_\pi\Big[\sum_{t=0}^\infty \beta^t r\big(x_{j(t)}(t)\big) \,\Big|\, x(0) = x\Big]. \tag{1}Vπ​(x)=Eπ​[t=0∑∞​βtr(xj(t)​(t))​x(0)=x].(1)

The fair charge γ(y)\gamma(y)γ(y) of a state yyy is the largest ratio of expected discounted reward to expected discounted time that a stopping time τ≥1\tau \ge 1τ≥1 of a single bandit started at yyy can achieve,

γ(y)=sup⁡τ≥1E[∑t=0τ−1βtr(x(t))∣x(0)=y]E[∑t=0τ−1βt∣x(0)=y],\gamma(y) = \sup_{\tau \ge 1} \frac{E\big[\sum_{t=0}^{\tau-1}\beta^t r(x(t)) \mid x(0)=y\big]}{E\big[\sum_{t=0}^{\tau-1}\beta^t \mid x(0)=y\big]},γ(y)=τ≥1sup​E[∑t=0τ−1​βt∣x(0)=y]E[∑t=0τ−1​βtr(x(t))∣x(0)=y]​,

and Weber's Gittins index is G(y)=γ(y)/(1−β)G(y) = \gamma(y)/(1-\beta)G(y)=γ(y)/(1−β). A Gittins index policy π∗\pi^*π∗ plays, at every epoch, a bandit with the greatest index, ties broken arbitrarily. Theorem 1 of the paper, already formalized on Prove2Me as BanditAlgorithm.gittins_index_theorem, states that every Gittins index policy maximizes Vπ(x)V_\pi(x)Vπ​(x).

The model, the fair charge and the Gittins index policy are the published GittinsIndex definitions of Shuze Chen, and the history truncation used to write round expectations is from Harry_Xu's GittinsTerminalPotential.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

For a Gittins index policy π∗\pi^*π∗, every policy π\piπ and every initial state vector xxx,

Vπ∗(x)−Vπ(x)≤Eπ[∑t=0∞βt(max⁡iGi(xi(t))−Gj(t)(xj(t)(t))) | x(0)=x].(7)V_{\pi^*}(x) - V_\pi(x) \le E_\pi\left[\sum_{t=0}^\infty \beta^t\Big(\max_i G_i\big(x_i(t)\big) - G_{j(t)}\big(x_{j(t)}(t)\big)\Big) \,\middle|\, x(0)=x\right]. \tag{7}Vπ∗​(x)−Vπ​(x)≤Eπ​[t=0∑∞​βt(imax​Gi​(xi​(t))−Gj(t)​(xj(t)​(t)))​x(0)=x].(7)

The right-hand side is computed along the trajectory of π\piπ alone: in each epoch it charges the gap between the greatest index and the index of the bandit π\piπ actually plays.

Milestones

The proof compares, for each ttt, two policies built from π\piπ: π∗(t)\pi^*(t)π∗(t), identical to π\piπ before time ttt and a Gittins index policy from ttt on, and π(t)\pi(t)π(t), identical to π\piπ up to and including time ttt, which then continues playing j(t)j(t)j(t) until its fair charge drops below its value at time ttt and is a Gittins index policy thereafter.

  1. Switching to Gittins later never hurts. If σ′\sigma'σ′ is identical to σ\sigmaσ through time ttt and a Gittins index policy from t+1t+1t+1 on, then Vσ(x)≤Vσ′(x)V_\sigma(x) \le V_{\sigma'}(x)Vσ​(x)≤Vσ′​(x); in particular Vπ(t)(x)≤Vπ∗(t+1)(x)V_{\pi(t)}(x) \le V_{\pi^*(t+1)}(x)Vπ(t)​(x)≤Vπ∗(t+1)​(x).
  2. Equation (8).
Vπ∗(t)(x)−Vπ(t)(x)≤βtEπ[max⁡iγi(xi(t))−γj(t)(xj(t)(t))1−β | x(0)=x].V_{\pi^*(t)}(x) - V_{\pi(t)}(x) \le \beta^t E_\pi\left[\frac{\max_i \gamma_i(x_i(t)) - \gamma_{j(t)}(x_{j(t)}(t))}{1-\beta} \,\middle|\, x(0)=x\right].Vπ∗(t)​(x)−Vπ(t)​(x)≤βtEπ​[1−βmaxi​γi​(xi​(t))−γj(t)​(xj(t)​(t))​​x(0)=x].

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 turns any per-epoch guarantee about the index of the bandit played into a guarantee on value. If a policy always plays a bandit whose Gittins index is within ε\varepsilonε of the greatest, it loses at most ε/(1−β)\varepsilon/(1-\beta)ε/(1−β); this is the form in which index heuristics, approximate index computations and constrained index policies are analysed. The open Prove2Me goal AllocationIndices.eps_index_policy_near_optimal (Gittins, Glazebrook and Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices, Theorem 4.18, after Glazebrook 1982) is a bound of this kind for ε\varepsilonε-index policies and follows from (7); it is a separate item and is not part of this mission. Unlike Theorem 2 of the same paper, the bound (7) involves only Gittins indices, not prevailing charges or rewards.

Formalizing it. Theorem 3 is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof exists. The mission produces a formal statement of the bound on top of the published Markov bandit model and Theorem 1, together with the two intermediate statements of Weber's proof, which have uses of their own: optimality of switching to the index policy after any finite prefix of play is the dynamic-programming form of the index theorem.

Difficulty

The informal proof is half a page, and its key sentence is that the difference of the charges paid by π∗(t)\pi^*(t)π∗(t) and π(t)\pi(t)π(t) at any later time is never more than the gap at time ttt. Making it rigorous requires the value-to-go of a history-dependent randomized policy after a fixed time, the fact that both policies from time ttt on are fair games in which expected discounted reward equals expected discounted charge, and a pathwise comparison of two interleavings of charge sequences. The naive reading, that π(t)\pi(t)π(t) loses only the single epoch ttt, is wrong: playing j(t)j(t)j(t) at time ttt commits the policy to a whole run of j(t)j(t)j(t), and the bound accounts for the entire run through the factor 1/(1−β)1/(1-\beta)1/(1−β). Telescoping (8) over ttt also needs Vπ∗(t)(x)→Vπ(x)V_{\pi^*(t)}(x) \to V_\pi(x)Vπ∗(t)​(x)→Vπ​(x) as t→∞t \to \inftyt→∞, which rests on bounded rewards and β<1\beta < 1β<1.

Formalization scope

The Lean development uses the published BanditAlgorithm model, in which all bandits share one state space SSS (a standard Borel space), one kernel PPP and one reward rrr; Weber's bandits with different state spaces are encoded by taking the disjoint union. Time is 0-indexed in both. The committed readings of the paper's phrases are:

  • "π∗\pi^*π∗ is the optimal (Gittins) policy" is any policy satisfying IsGittinsIndexPolicy; it is not assumed to be built from π\piπ.
  • Rj(xj(t))R_j(x_j(t))Rj​(xj​(t)) is represented by its conditional mean r(xj(t))r(x_j(t))r(xj​(t)), and "Eπ[∑tβt⋯ ]E_\pi[\sum_t \beta^t \cdots]Eπ​[∑t​βt⋯]" by the series of per-epoch expectations ∑tβtEπ[⋯ ]\sum_t \beta^t E_\pi[\cdots]∑t​βtEπ​[⋯], the published value convention.
  • The index in (7) is G=γ/(1−β)G = \gamma/(1-\beta)G=γ/(1−β) (weberIndex), and (8) is written with γ\gammaγ (gittinsIndex) divided by 1−β1-\beta1−β, as on the page.
  • π∗(t)\pi^*(t)π∗(t) and π(t)\pi(t)π(t) are predicates on a policy (IsSwitchToGittinsAt, IsRunThenGittinsAt), and (8) is stated for every pair of policies satisfying them. "Identical to π\piπ for times less than ttt" is rounds n<tn < tn<t; "plays j(t)j(t)j(t) at time ttt" and "identical through time ttt" are rounds n≤tn \le tn≤t. "Drops below" is strict.
  • The standing assumptions of Section 1 (nonnegative, uniformly bounded rewards and 0<β<10<\beta<10<β<1) are hypotheses of every theorem, as are measurability of rrr and of y↦γ(y)y \mapsto \gamma(y)y↦γ(y), which the paper takes for granted.

Using the fair charge γ\gammaγ in place of GGG in (7) would make the bound false by the factor 1−β1-\beta1−β; dropping the measurability of γ\gammaγ would let the expectation degenerate to 000 and make the bound claim that every policy is optimal. Neither is the statement posed here, and a constant-index or one-armed instance, where both sides vanish, only checks that the hypotheses are satisfiable.

Theorem 1 is referenced, not posed. Theorem 2 (the prevailing-charge bound) and Theorem 4 (submodularity of the optimal value in the set of bandits) are missions 1 and 3 of this series; this mission does not depend on them. Weber's definition of an index consistent policy (p. 1028) is not formalized here: the proof of (8) needs the fair-game property in the form of Remark 2 (continue while the fair charge exceeds the prevailing charge), which differs from the definition's "initial value" after an interruption. Contributions welcome: a measurable greatest-index selection, value-to-go decompositions for history-dependent policies, and the fair-game identity for index-consistent play are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • R. Weber, On the Gittins index for multiarmed bandits, The Annals of Applied Probability 2(4), 1024–1033, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005588
  • J. C. Gittins, Bandit processes and dynamic allocation indices, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 41(2), 148–177, 1979. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1979.tb01068.x
  • K. D. Glazebrook, Procedures for the evaluation of strategies for resource allocation in a stochastic environment, Journal of Applied Probability 27, 215–220, 1990.
  • J. C. Gittins and D. M. Jones, A dynamic allocation index for the sequential design of experiments, in Progress in Statistics (J. Gani et al., eds.), North-Holland, 241–266, 1974.
  • P. Whittle, Multi-armed bandits and the Gittins index, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 42(2), 143–149, 1980. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1980.tb01111.x
  • K. D. Glazebrook, On the evaluation of suboptimal strategies for families of alternative bandit processes, Journal of Applied Probability 19, 716–722, 1982.
  • J. C. Gittins, K. D. Glazebrook and R. Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices, 2nd ed., Wiley, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470980033
  • T. Lattimore and Cs. Szepesvári, Bandit Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2020, Chapter 35. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108571401
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Dynamic ProgrammingProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Ordering and Rationing Policies in a Nonstationary Dynamic Inventory Model with n Demand Classes IV: Critical-Level Ordering at Nondecreasing Myopic Levels ȳₘ Is OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

A firm with one product may face several customer classes in each selling interval. When stock is scarce, it must decide which outstanding demands to satisfy and how much inventory to carry into later intervals. When new stock can be bought at several dates, the rationing choice also changes the value of future purchasing opportunities. Topkis studied these linked decisions in a nonstationary model with class-dependent shortage penalties and a finite number of ordering periods. His Theorem 4 identifies conditions under which a policy computed from each period's myopic cost is optimal in the full multiperiod problem Topkis 1968.

The result belongs to a line of work on critical-level policies: choose a stock target and order up to it if current stock is lower. Here the target can be computed one period at a time despite the possibility of future purchases and the separate question of how to ration stock among demand classes. The paper attributes a related myopic policy result to Veinott and explains that its own setting allows a more general rationing policy than the special zero-rationing-level case discussed there Topkis 1968, pp. 175–176. This mission formalizes Topkis's multiperiod statement, including its ordering and rationing conclusions.

Setting

There are NNN ordering periods, numbered 111 through NNN. Period mmm has a unit purchase cost cmc_mcm​. It contains kmk_mkm​ selling intervals, numbered backward: interval kmk_mkm​ is first and interval 111 is last. Within an interval, a random nonnegative demand vector has one component for each of nnn customer classes. The vectors in distinct intervals and periods are independent and each class has a finite mean. At the start of an interval the demand is observed. A decision then selects how much of each class's outstanding demand to leave unsatisfied. The remaining physical stock incurs a holding cost, and each unsatisfied unit incurs a class-specific penalty. Unsatisfied demand is either carried entirely to the next interval or lost entirely, according to the interval. Penalties are nonnegative and rise with class index, so class nnn has the highest shortage penalty Topkis 1968, pp. 162–163, 174.

Let www be net stock before ordering at the start of period mmm: physical stock minus outstanding backlogs. The order must clear the backlog, so the post-order stock zzz satisfies z≥w+=max⁡(w,0)z\ge w^+=\max(w,0)z≥w+=max(w,0). After period NNN, a further unit can be purchased for cN+1≥0c_{N+1}\ge0cN+1​≥0, while unused stock can be salvaged for revenue v≤cN+1v\le c_{N+1}v≤cN+1​. The terminal cost is CN+1(w)=(cN+1−v)w+C_{N+1}(w)=(c_{N+1}-v)w^+CN+1​(w)=(cN+1​−v)w+. Working backward, Cm(w)C_m(w)Cm​(w) is the optimal continuation cost, including the period-mmm ordering decision. The actual period cost g~m(z)\widetilde g^m(z)g​m(z) includes the later continuation value Cm+1C_{m+1}Cm+1​, and equation (19) reads

Cm(w)=inf⁡z≥w+g~m(z).C_m(w)=\inf_{z\ge w^+}\widetilde g^m(z).Cm​(w)=z≥w+inf​g​m(z).

The single-period cost gm(z)g^m(z)gm(z) uses the same demand, holding costs and rationing choices in period mmm, but replaces the later continuation value by the linear terminal charge −cm+1y-c_{m+1}y−cm+1​y. A myopic level yˉm\bar y_myˉ​m​ is any minimum of gmg^mgm on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞); it is +∞+\infty+∞ if no such minimum exists. Thus the level need not be the smallest minimum when several stock levels tie Topkis 1968, pp. 174–175.

Formalization targets

Theorem 4: myopic ordering and rationing

Suppose v=cN+1v=c_{N+1}v=cN+1​ and the selected myopic levels are nondecreasing from period mmm onward:

yˉm≤yˉm+1≤⋯≤yˉN.\bar y_m\le\bar y_{m+1}\le\cdots\le\bar y_N.yˉ​m​≤yˉ​m+1​≤⋯≤yˉ​N​.

Then yˉm<+∞\bar y_m<+\inftyyˉ​m​<+∞, and ordering to w∨yˉmw\vee\bar y_mw∨yˉ​m​ minimizes g~m\widetilde g^mg​m over all feasible post-order levels z≥w+z\ge w^+z≥w+. If m<Nm<Nm<N and the stock at the start of period mmm is at most yˉm+1\bar y_{m+1}yˉ​m+1​, the optimal rationing policy during that period is the optimal policy for its single-period problem, calculated with terminal costs v1≡0v_1\equiv0v1​≡0 and v2(y)=−cm+1yv_2(y)=-c_{m+1}yv2​(y)=−cm+1​y Topkis 1968, Theorem 4.

The milestones are the paper's regularity claim for CmC_mCm​ and g~m\widetilde g^mg​m, existence of an actual optimal order-up-to level, finiteness of yˉN\bar y_Nyˉ​N​, the shape of CmC_mCm​ around an optimal level, and the comparison in equation (20). Together these specify the route from the general dynamic program to the myopic target.

Significance

Theorem 4 gives a checkable sufficient condition for replacing a multiperiod ordering computation with a sequence of single-period cost minimizations. It also identifies when the rationing decisions can be obtained from the same single-period model. The stock bound in its rationing clause matters: outside that range, future costs may alter which class demands should be filled now. The result therefore describes both the simplification and its operational domain Topkis 1968, pp. 175–176.

Topkis proved the theorem in 1968; the task here is to produce machine-checked definitions and proofs of that known result. The definitions of feasible rationing, backward value functions, myopic costs and order-up-to levels will also support comparisons with other finite-horizon inventory models. The §1 model is duplicated locally while the four missions for this paper are drafted in parallel, then intended for consolidation into a shared interface.

Difficulty

Convexity alone gives an order-up-to form for the actual cost g~m\widetilde g^mg​m, but it does not identify its minimizing level with a minimum of the simpler cost gmg^mgm. The continuation value Cm+1C_{m+1}Cm+1​ depends on all later ordering and rationing decisions. When some unsatisfied demand is lost, the end-of-period net stock can depend on the within-period rationing choice as well. The core issue is therefore to control the difference between the actual and myopic objectives in the stock range relevant to period mmm Topkis 1968, pp. 174–176. A statement restricted to a preselected rationing rule would miss the theorem's claim about optimality among all feasible decisions.

Formalization scope

Classes are indexed by Fin n; the largest index is the highest penalty class. Intervals and ordering periods use natural numbers with explicit bounds, and intervals retain the paper's backward numbering. Stock, penalties and costs are real. A period's demand vector has a probability law on real vectors supported on the nonnegative orthant, with every coordinate integrable. The §1 dynamic program uses real infima for feasible rationing choices and Bochner integrals for demand expectations. The multiperiod value CmC_mCm​ uses the nonnegative post-order domain z≥w+z\ge w^+z≥w+ in (19). Its defining infimum is intended to be finite under the paper's assumptions; the regularity and attainment milestones expose the facts that rule out Lean's default value for an unbounded infimum. These functions are used only at 1≤m≤N+11\le m\le N+11≤m≤N+1, with period costs at 1≤m≤N1\le m\le N1≤m≤N.

The multiperiod standing assumptions require n>0n>0n>0, N>0N>0N>0, and at least one interval per period, matching the paper’s positive counts.

Holding costs and the appropriate terminal costs satisfy the convexity and continuity assumptions of §1. Within each period, backlog multipliers equal 000 or 111. The terminal procurement cost is nonnegative and salvage revenue does not exceed it. Assumption (D′) is encoded as an eventually positive lower bound on the extended-real right derivative of cmw+∑i=mN∑tht,i(w)−vwc_mw+\sum_{i=m}^N\sum_t h_{t,i}(w)-vwcm​w+∑i=mN​∑t​ht,i​(w)−vw. The §1 terminal functions used in the period assumptions are the linear functions required by the single-period comparison; their regularity adds no independent restriction. Independence across intervals and periods is built into successive expectations. The goal separately assumes v=cN+1v=c_{N+1}v=cN+1​ and monotonicity of the selected myopic levels only from mmm through NNN.

The formal target compares the actual and single-period sets of optimal rationing decisions at every interval and at every nonnegative state with stock at most yˉm+1\bar y_{m+1}yˉ​m+1​. The stock bound and the full feasible set prevent the claim from becoming a result about a handpicked policy. Contributions to the backward recursion, convexity and attainment facts, and the comparison of these two decision sets are all part of this mission.

Selected references

  • Donald M. Topkis, Optimal Ordering and Rationing Policies in a Nonstationary Dynamic Inventory Model with n Demand Classes, Management Science 15(3), 160–176, 1968. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.15.3.160.
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CombinatoricsProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Concentration of Measure and Isoperimetric Inequalities in Product Spaces XI: The Random Assignment Problem — Fluctuations of the Optimal Cost of Order (log N)²/(√N log log N)Textbook

Motivation

The assignment problem asks for a one-to-one matching of NNN agents to NNN tasks that minimizes the total cost. It is one of the basic problems of combinatorial optimization and is solved in polynomial time by the Hungarian method. Its random version, in which the N2N^2N2 costs are independent random variables, is a standard model for the typical behavior of optimization problems on random inputs, and it has been studied in probability, operations research and statistical physics.

Timeline:

  • Walkup (1979) showed that the expected optimal cost E(LN)E(L_N)E(LN​) of the random assignment problem with independent uniform [0,1][0,1][0,1] costs stays bounded as N→∞N \to \inftyN→∞ (doi:10.1137/0208036).
  • Karp (1987) proved E(LN)≤2E(L_N) \le 2E(LN​)≤2.
  • Talagrand (1995), in the article this mission formalizes, bounded the fluctuations of LNL_NLN​ around its median by K(log⁡N)2/(Nlog⁡log⁡N)K(\log N)^2/(\sqrt N \log\log N)K(logN)2/(N​loglogN), as a showcase of his concentration inequality for product measures (doi:10.1007/BF02699376).
  • Aldous (2001) proved the limit E(LN)→π2/6E(L_N) \to \pi^2/6E(LN​)→π2/6, the value predicted by Mézard and Parisi (doi:10.1002/rsa.1015).

This mission is Chapter 10 of Talagrand's article.

Setting

Fix NNN and two sets III and JJJ of cardinal NNN. An assignment is a one-to-one map τ\tauτ from III onto JJJ. Given a cost matrix a=(ai,j)i∈I,j∈Ja = (a_{i,j})_{i \in I, j \in J}a=(ai,j​)i∈I,j∈J​, the cost of τ\tauτ is ∑i∈Iai,τ(i)\sum_{i \in I} a_{i,\tau(i)}∑i∈I​ai,τ(i)​. In the random problem the costs are Xi,jX_{i,j}Xi,j​, independent and uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1][0,1], and the optimal cost is the random variable

LN=min⁡{∑i∈IXi,τ(i)  ;  τ assignment}.L_N = \min\Big\{ \sum_{i \in I} X_{i,\tau(i)} \;;\; \tau \text{ assignment} \Big\}.LN​=min{i∈I∑​Xi,τ(i)​;τ assignment}.

A median of LNL_NLN​ is any real MMM with P(LN≤M)≥1/2P(L_N \le M) \ge 1/2P(LN​≤M)≥1/2 and P(LN≥M)≥1/2P(L_N \ge M) \ge 1/2P(LN​≥M)≥1/2.

The argument uses digraphs. A digraph is a subset D⊆I×JD \subseteq I \times JD⊆I×J, and for S⊆IS \subseteq IS⊆I the set of neighbors is D(S)={j∈J; ∃i∈S, (i,j)∈D}D(S) = \{ j \in J ;\ \exists i \in S,\ (i,j) \in D \}D(S)={j∈J; ∃i∈S, (i,j)∈D}. For α≥2\alpha \ge 2α≥2, DDD is α\alphaα-expanding if for every S⊆IS \subseteq IS⊆I

card⁡S≤N2⇒card⁡D(S)≥min⁡(αcard⁡S,N2),card⁡S≥N2⇒card⁡D(S)≥N−1α(N−card⁡S).\operatorname{card} S \le \tfrac N2 \Rightarrow \operatorname{card} D(S) \ge \min\big(\alpha \operatorname{card} S, \tfrac N2\big), \qquad \operatorname{card} S \ge \tfrac N2 \Rightarrow \operatorname{card} D(S) \ge N - \tfrac 1\alpha (N - \operatorname{card} S).cardS≤2N​⇒cardD(S)≥min(αcardS,2N​),cardS≥2N​⇒cardD(S)≥N−α1​(N−cardS).

For u>0u > 0u>0 the threshold digraph is Du={(i,j); Xi,j≤2uN−1log⁡N}D_u = \{(i,j) ;\ X_{i,j} \le 2uN^{-1}\log N\}Du​={(i,j); Xi,j​≤2uN−1logN}: it keeps only the cheap edges.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10.5

There is a universal constant KKK such that for N≥3N \ge 3N≥3, every median MMM of LNL_NLN​ and every t≥0t \ge 0t≥0,

t≤log⁡N⇒P(∣LN−M∣≥Kt(log⁡N)2Nlog⁡log⁡N)≤2e−t2,t \le \sqrt{\log N} \Rightarrow P\Big(|L_N - M| \ge \frac{K t (\log N)^2}{\sqrt N \log\log N}\Big) \le 2 e^{-t^2},t≤logN​⇒P(∣LN​−M∣≥N​loglogNKt(logN)2​)≤2e−t2, t≥log⁡N⇒P(∣LN−M∣≥Kt3log⁡NNlog⁡t2)≤2e−t2.t \ge \sqrt{\log N} \Rightarrow P\Big(|L_N - M| \ge \frac{K t^3 \log N}{\sqrt N \log t^2}\Big) \le 2 e^{-t^2}.t≥logN​⇒P(∣LN​−M∣≥N​logt2Kt3logN​)≤2e−t2.

The constant KKK is left unspecified, as in the paper.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Lemma 10.1 (deterministic): in an α\alphaα-expanding digraph with αm≥N/2\alpha^m \ge N/2αm≥N/2, every i∈Ii \in Ii∈I lies on a cycle i=i1,…,in+1=ii = i_1, \dots, i_{n+1} = ii=i1​,…,in+1​=i of distinct points, n≤2mn \le 2mn≤2m, with (iℓ,τ(iℓ+1))∈D(i_\ell, \tau(i_{\ell+1})) \in D(iℓ​,τ(iℓ+1​))∈D.
  2. Corollary 10.2 (deterministic in the costs): if DuD_uDu​ is α\alphaα-expanding and αm≥N/2\alpha^m \ge N/2αm≥N/2, every optimal assignment satisfies Xi,τ(i)≤4muN−1log⁡NX_{i,\tau(i)} \le 4muN^{-1}\log NXi,τ(i)​≤4muN−1logN.
  3. Lemma 10.4: for independent events of probability ppp, fewer than δpN\delta p NδpN occur with probability at most exp⁡(−Np/K(δ))\exp(-Np/K(\delta))exp(−Np/K(δ)).
  4. Proposition 10.3: for a universal KKK and u>Ku > Ku>K with ulog⁡N≤Nu \log N \le NulogN≤N, DuD_uDu​ is ulog⁡Nu\log NulogN-expanding with probability at least 1−N−u/K1 - N^{-u/K}1−N−u/K.

Significance

The expected value of LNL_NLN​ is of the same order as a single cost, yet LNL_NLN​ is a function of N2N^2N2 independent variables. A generic bounded-difference bound in all N2N^2N2 coordinates gives no useful concentration at this scale. Theorem 10.5 shows that the fluctuations are at most of order (log⁡N)2/(Nlog⁡log⁡N)(\log N)^2/(\sqrt N \log\log N)(logN)2/(N​loglogN), and by the remark after the theorem, so is the standard deviation of LNL_NLN​. The chapter is a worked example of how a concentration inequality in product spaces is combined with a combinatorial localization argument, the reduction to small costs, and that pattern recurs in the study of random combinatorial optimization problems.

Status: the theorem and its lemmas are proved in the paper. As far as a search of the platform shows, none of them has a machine-checked proof. The two posed statements of Theorem 4.1.1 on the platform (finite-alphabet form) are the concentration inequality the proof calls on; formalizing this chapter adds the combinatorics of expanding digraphs, the random-graph estimate Proposition 10.3 and the final assembly.

Difficulty

The naive approach applies a concentration inequality directly to LNL_NLN​ as a function of the N2N^2N2 costs, each of which can change LNL_NLN​ by up to 111. That loses all control, because the variance proxy grows with the number of coordinates. The central step is to show that, with high probability, an optimal assignment only uses costs of order N−1(log⁡N)2N^{-1}(\log N)^2N−1(logN)2. This requires the cycle structure of Lemma 10.1, and it requires showing that the sparse random digraph DuD_uDu​ has expansion uniformly over all subsets SSS of III, whose number is exponential in NNN. Proposition 10.3 has to beat that union bound, and its proof covers only one of the two expansion conditions in detail; the condition (10.2) for large sets is "left to the reader". The final step combines the truncation with Theorem 4.1.1 and a careful choice of parameters for the two ranges of ttt.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in the namespace TalagrandConc.Assignment and commits to the following conventions:

  • I=J=I = J = I=J= Fin N, assignments are Equiv.Perm (Fin N), and LNL_NLN​ is optCost, a Finset.inf' over all permutations (no junk value).
  • The probability space is the cost matrices Fin N × Fin N → ℝ with costLaw N, the product of Lebesgue measure restricted to [0,1][0,1][0,1]. The coordinates are the Xi,jX_{i,j}Xi,j​.
  • Cardinalities of subsets are Set.ncard on the finite type Fin N. α\alphaα-expansion includes α≥2\alpha \ge 2α≥2 as part of the definition.
  • Probabilities are in ℝ≥0∞, and 1−N−u/K1 - N^{-u/K}1−N−u/K is truncated subtraction there.
  • Universal constants are existentially quantified before every object they are uniform over. K(δ)K(\delta)K(δ) in Lemma 10.4 is chosen after δ\deltaδ and before everything else.
  • Implicit side conditions of the paper are stated: m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 in Lemma 10.1 and Corollary 10.2, n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 for the cycle, N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 in Proposition 10.3, t≥0t \ge 0t≥0 in Theorem 10.5.

A cycle of length n=0n = 0n=0 would satisfy Lemma 10.1 vacuously. The formal statement therefore requires n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, which rules out that trivializing reading. Similarly, Theorem 10.5 fixes one constant KKK for all NNN; a KKK depending on NNN would make the bound empty.

Infrastructure: the product of uniform laws on a finite index set, iterated expansion arguments for bipartite digraphs, a lower-tail Chernoff bound for independent events, and the union bound over subsets are reusable beyond this mission. Theorem 4.1.1 of the paper is posed elsewhere on the platform and is not restated here. The bound (8.1.1) used in Step 2 of the proof belongs to another chapter of the series. Contributions of proofs of any milestone, or of intermediate displayed estimates such as (10.5), (10.6) and (10.9), are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Talagrand, Concentration of measure and isoperimetric inequalities in product spaces, Publ. Math. IHÉS 81 (1995), 73–205. doi:10.1007/BF02699376
  • D. W. Walkup, On the expected value of a random assignment problem, SIAM J. Comput. 8 (1979), 440–442. doi:10.1137/0208036
  • R. M. Karp, An upper bound on the expected cost of an optimal assignment, in Discrete Algorithms and Complexity, Academic Press (1987), 1–4.
  • J. M. Steele, Probability Theory and Combinatorial Optimization, SIAM (1997). doi:10.1137/1.9781611970029
  • D. J. Aldous, The ζ(2) limit in the random assignment problem, Random Structures Algorithms 18 (2001), 381–418. doi:10.1002/rsa.1015
7 thms3 active usersReviewed
Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Average Cost Optimal Stationary Policies in Infinite State Markov Decision Processes with Unbounded Costs: A Variable-Rate Queue Has an Average Cost Optimal Stationary Policy Whenever λ < max aβResearch Paper

Motivation

Controlled queues are the standard testing ground for Markov decision processes with infinitely many states: the state is a queue length, which is unbounded, and the holding cost grows with it. The classical theory of the average cost criterion (Ross, Applied Probability Models with Optimization Applications, 1970) produces an optimal stationary policy only when the relative discounted values are uniformly bounded, a condition that fails for almost every queue with unbounded holding costs. Linn I. Sennott's paper Average Cost Optimal Stationary Policies in Infinite State Markov Decision Processes with Unbounded Costs (Operations Research 37(4):626–633, 1989, doi:10.1287/opre.37.4.626) replaced that boundedness by one-sided conditions that are checked in practice by a monotonicity argument and a single test function. Her conditions became the standard tool for queueing control and are the basis of Chapter 7 of her book Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems (Wiley, 1999).

Timeline:

  • 1962–1970. Derman and Ross obtain average cost optimal stationary policies from the vanishing discount approach when the relative values hαh_\alphahα​ are bounded.
  • 1986. Sennott treats the queue with variable service rates under bounded costs and gives a first discrete-time Tauberian argument (Operations Research 34, 1986a; 1986b).
  • 1989. This paper: Assumptions 1–3, the Theorem, the Markov chain test of Propositions 4–5, and applications to a packet system and to the queue with variable service rates (Proposition 8).

Setting

A Markov decision chain has states i=0,1,2,…i=0,1,2,\dotsi=0,1,2,…; in state iii a finite nonempty set AiA_iAi​ of actions; a cost 0≤C(i,a)<∞0\le C(i,a)<\infty0≤C(i,a)<∞; and transition probabilities Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a). A policy θ\thetaθ may depend on the whole history and may randomize; a stationary policy fff chooses f(i)∈Aif(i)\in A_if(i)∈Ai​ in state iii. For 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, Vθ,α(i)V_{\theta,\alpha}(i)Vθ,α​(i) is the expected total α\alphaα-discounted cost from iii and Vα(i)=inf⁡θVθ,α(i)V_\alpha(i)=\inf_\theta V_{\theta,\alpha}(i)Vα​(i)=infθ​Vθ,α​(i), possibly infinite. The average cost of θ\thetaθ is

gθ(i)=lim sup⁡N→∞1N Eθ[∑t=0N−1C(Xt,at) ∣ X0=i].g_\theta(i)=\limsup_{N\to\infty}\frac1N\,E_\theta\Big[\sum_{t=0}^{N-1}C(X_t,a_t)\,\Big|\,X_0=i\Big].gθ​(i)=N→∞limsup​N1​Eθ​[t=0∑N−1​C(Xt​,at​)​X0​=i].

A stationary policy fff is average cost optimal if there is a finite constant ggg with g=gf(i)≤gθ(i)g=g_f(i)\le g_\theta(i)g=gf​(i)≤gθ​(i) for every policy θ\thetaθ and every state iii.

The queue with variable service rates (Example 2). Time is slotted; pip_ipi​ is the probability of iii arrivals in a slot, independently across slots. The state is the number of customers at the beginning of a slot. When the queue is nonempty the server chooses one of finitely many decision variables aaa and serves at rate aβ∈(0,1)a\beta\in(0,1)aβ∈(0,1), so that the customer in service leaves during the slot with probability aβa\betaaβ; there is no decision in state 000. From state i≥1i\ge1i≥1 the next state is i−1+ki-1+ki−1+k with probability aβpk+(1−aβ)pk−1a\beta p_k+(1-a\beta)p_{k-1}aβpk​+(1−aβ)pk−1​ (p−1=0p_{-1}=0p−1​=0), and from 000 it is jjj with probability pjp_jpj​. The cost structure: B(a)>0B(a)>0B(a)>0; QQQ a polynomial of degree n≥0n\ge0n≥0, nonnegative and increasing on i≥0i\ge0i≥0; C(0)=Q(0)C(0)=Q(0)C(0)=Q(0) and C(i,a)=Q(i)+B(a)C(i,a)=Q(i)+B(a)C(i,a)=Q(i)+B(a) for i≥1i\ge1i≥1. The arrival moments are λ(k)=∑iikpi\lambda^{(k)}=\sum_i i^kp_iλ(k)=∑i​ikpi​ and λ=λ(1)\lambda=\lambda^{(1)}λ=λ(1).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 8

If λ(n+1)<∞\lambda^{(n+1)}<\inftyλ(n+1)<∞, then

λ<max⁡a(aβ) ⟹ there is an average cost optimal stationary policy,\lambda<\max_a(a\beta)\ \Longrightarrow\ \text{there is an average cost optimal stationary policy},λ<amax​(aβ) ⟹ there is an average cost optimal stationary policy,

and

λ<min⁡a(aβ) ⟹ g+h(i)=min⁡a{C(i,a)+∑jPij(a)h(j)},i≥0,\lambda<\min_a(a\beta)\ \Longrightarrow\ g+h(i)=\min_a\Big\{C(i,a)+\sum_jP_{ij}(a)h(j)\Big\},\quad i\ge0,λ<amin​(aβ) ⟹ g+h(i)=amin​{C(i,a)+j∑​Pij​(a)h(j)},i≥0,

with ggg the optimal average cost, g=lim⁡α↑1(1−α)Vα(i)g=\lim_{\alpha\uparrow1}(1-\alpha)V_\alpha(i)g=limα↑1​(1−α)Vα​(i), and hhh bounded below.

Milestones

  1. Propositions 1–3 (p. 627): VαV_\alphaVα​ solves the discount optimality equation, is its minimal nonnegative solution, and is the limit of value iteration (already proved on the platform, referenced).
  2. The Lemma (p. 628): discount optimal stationary policies along αn→1\alpha_n\to1αn​→1 have a stationary limit point.
  3. Lemmas A1 and A2 (p. 632): the comparison between solutions of the optimality inequality and average costs, and lim sup⁡α↑1(1−α)Vα(i)≤gθ(i)\limsup_{\alpha\uparrow1}(1-\alpha)V_\alpha(i)\le g_\theta(i)limsupα↑1​(1−α)Vα​(i)≤gθ​(i).
  4. The Theorem (p. 628): under Assumptions 1–3, any limit point fff from the Lemma is average cost optimal, with the optimality inequalities (5); under Assumption 3*, the optimality equation (6).
  5. Propositions 4, 5 and the Corollary (pp. 629–630): the Markov chain criteria that yield Assumptions 1, 3 and 3* from one well-behaved stationary policy.
  6. Two steps of the proof of Proposition 8 (p. 631): Vα(i)V_\alpha(i)Vα​(i) is increasing in iii (hence Assumption 2), and the drift of r(i)=Ain+1r(i)=Ai^{n+1}r(i)=Ain+1 is a polynomial of degree at most nnn with leading coefficient A(n+1)(λ−aβ)A(n+1)(\lambda-a\beta)A(n+1)(λ−aβ), display (14).

Significance

Proposition 8 states that a queue in which at least one service rate exceeds the mean arrival rate has an average cost optimal stationary policy for holding costs of any polynomial growth, as long as the matching moment of the arrival distribution is finite. Bounded-cost results do not cover this case, which is the one used in practice. The general Theorem behind it is the standard vanishing discount theorem for countable-state models with unbounded costs; the Markov chain test of Propositions 4–5 and the Corollary reduces its hypotheses to a drift inequality for one policy.

All results of the paper are proved on paper. None is formalized: the platform has Sennott's discounted theory (Propositions 1–3, proved) and, as open statements, the book version of the Theorem (SennottDP.SEN.thm_7_2_3_sen_acoi), its existence part in a compact-action model (ArapostathisAC.SennottACOI.theorem_5_9), and the first half of Lemma A1 (SennottDP.SEN.lemma_7_2_1_acoi_bound). This mission states the paper's own version, with all conclusions of the Theorem, and its application to a concrete queue, which no platform item states.

Difficulty

The obvious route takes a limit of hα=Vα−Vα(0)h_\alpha=V_\alpha-V_\alpha(0)hα​=Vα​−Vα​(0) along a sequence αn→1\alpha_n\to1αn​→1 and passes to the limit in the discount optimality equation. With unbounded costs and unbounded hαh_\alphahα​ the sum ∑jPij(a)hα(j)\sum_jP_{ij}(a)h_\alpha(j)∑j​Pij​(a)hα​(j) is an infinite series of terms that need not converge uniformly, so the limit of the sums is not the sum of the limits. Only an inequality survives (Fatou's lemma, which needs the lower bound of Assumption 2), and the equation needs the integrable upper bound of Assumption 3*. For the queue, the hypotheses are not visible from the model: they come from a monotonicity property of VαV_\alphaVα​ and a Lyapunov drift computation whose leading term, A(n+1)(λ−aβ)inA(n+1)(\lambda-a\beta)i^nA(n+1)(λ−aβ)in, has to dominate a cost polynomial of the same degree.

Formalization scope

The model is the published Markov decision chain of Sennott (1999), SennottDP.Discounted.MDC ℕ Act, with its policies, discounted costs and value functions, and the published average cost SennottDP.SEN.avgCost; Markov chains, steady state probabilities and first passage costs are the published SennottDP.MarkovCost objects. Conventions:

  • costs, discounted values and average costs lie in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; VαV_\alphaVα​ may be infinite unless Assumption 1 is assumed;
  • hαh_\alphahα​ is a real number, used only together with Assumption 1;
  • the constants NNN and MiM_iMi​ of Assumptions 2–3 are explicit and chosen before iii and α\alphaα; Assumption 3* uses the same MMM;
  • "average cost optimal" always carries a finite constant g≥0g\ge0g≥0 and compares with all policies, not only stationary ones;
  • sums ∑jPij(a)h(j)\sum_jP_{ij}(a)h(j)∑j​Pij​(a)h(j) against a real function are extended reals (positive part minus negative part);
  • "ergodic" means positive recurrent (no aperiodicity);
  • in the queue, every decision is formally available in state 000 with identical cost Q(0)Q(0)Q(0) and identical transitions, which represents "no decision in state 0"; λ<max⁡a(aβ)\lambda<\max_a(a\beta)λ<maxa​(aβ) is "for some aaa" and λ<min⁡a(aβ)\lambda<\min_a(a\beta)λ<mina​(aβ) "for every aaa".

The second half of the goal is not "there exist ggg and hhh satisfying (6)": a pair solving (6) alone carries no optimality content, so the goal ties ggg to the optimal average cost and lim⁡α↑1(1−α)Vα\lim_{\alpha\uparrow1}(1-\alpha)V_\alphalimα↑1​(1−α)Vα​ and requires hhh bounded below. The Theorem's milestones are stated for every limit point given by the Lemma, not for some stationary policy. The hypotheses of the goal are satisfiable (two-point arrivals p0=3/4p_0=3/4p0​=3/4, p1=1/4p_1=1/4p1​=1/4, one rate aβ=1/2a\beta=1/2aβ=1/2, Q(i)=i+1Q(i)=i+1Q(i)=i+1, B=1B=1B=1), so the goal is not vacuous.

A complete development needs a discrete Tauberian inequality (already proved on the platform), Fatou's lemma for series, a compactness argument on ∏iAi\prod_iA_i∏i​Ai​, first passage identities and a Foster–Lyapunov criterion for positive recurrence. The Markov chain criteria (Proposition 4, the Corollary) and the Theorem are reusable for every countable-state queueing control model. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative arguments, are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Average Cost Optimal Stationary Policies in Infinite State Markov Decision Processes with Unbounded Costs, Operations Research 37(4):626–633, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.37.4.626
  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470317037
  • S. M. Ross, Applied Probability Models with Optimization Applications, Holden-Day, 1970.
  • A. G. Pakes, Some Conditions for Ergodicity and Recurrence of Markov Chains, Operations Research 17(6):1058–1061, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.17.6.1058
  • A. Arapostathis, V. S. Borkar, E. Fernández-Gaucherand, M. K. Ghosh, S. I. Marcus, Discrete-Time Controlled Markov Processes with Average Cost Criterion: A Survey, SIAM J. Control Optim. 31(2):282–344, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1137/0331018
22 thms3 active usersReviewed
Convex OptimizationMarkov ChainStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

An Adaptive Algorithm for Finding the Optimal Base-Stock Policy in Lost Sales Inventory Systems with Censored Demand: Adaptive(α, β) Has Per-Period Regret O(N(L)^(−1/3)) at α = β = 1/2Research Paper

Motivation

Periodic-review inventory systems with lost sales and a positive replenishment lead time are a basic model of retail and spare-parts operations: demand that cannot be met from stock is lost, and an order placed today arrives τ\tauτ periods later. Even with a known demand distribution the optimal policy depends on the whole vector of outstanding orders and is intractable for long lead times, so practice and theory fall back on base-stock (order-up-to) policies, which are asymptotically optimal as the lost-sales penalty grows relative to the holding cost (Huh, Janakiraman, Muckstadt and Rusmevichientong, Management Science 2009).

Computing the best base-stock level still requires the demand distribution. In many settings the distribution is unknown and, worse, demand is censored: the manager records sales, min⁡{Dt,It}\min\{D_t, I_t\}min{Dt​,It​}, and never sees the demand lost to a stockout. The paper behind this mission, Huh, Janakiraman, Muckstadt and Rusmevichientong, An Adaptive Algorithm for Finding the Optimal Base-Stock Policy in Lost Sales Inventory Systems with Censored Demand (working paper of February 8, 2007; published in Mathematics of Operations Research 2009, DOI 10.1287/moor.1080.0367), gives an algorithm that learns the optimal base-stock level from sales data alone and bounds its regret against the best base-stock policy. It extended the zero-lead-time adaptive newsvendor analyses (e.g. Huh and Rusmevichientong, Math. Oper. Res. 2009) to positive lead times, where the inventory process is a Markov chain on Rτ\mathbb R^\tauRτ.

Setting

Demands D1,D2,…D_1, D_2, \dotsD1​,D2​,… are i.i.d. copies of a nonnegative, continuous random variable DDD with E[D]>0E[D] > 0E[D]>0 and distribution function FFF. The inventory vector in period ttt is

Xt=(Qt−1,…,Qt−τ+1,It)∈R+τ,X_t = (Q_{t-1}, \dots, Q_{t-\tau+1}, I_t) \in \mathbb R^\tau_+,Xt​=(Qt−1​,…,Qt−τ+1​,It​)∈R+τ​,

the τ−1\tau - 1τ−1 outstanding orders and the on-hand inventory ItI_tIt​; its inventory position is Xt⋅1τX_t \cdot \mathbf 1^\tauXt​⋅1τ. Under the order-up-to-SSS policy the manager orders Qt=[S−Xt⋅1τ]+Q_t = [S - X_t\cdot\mathbf 1^\tau]^+Qt​=[S−Xt​⋅1τ]+, demand DtD_tDt​ is realized, and

It+1=[It−Dt]++Qt−τ+1.I_{t+1} = [I_t - D_t]^+ + Q_{t-\tau+1}.It+1​=[It​−Dt​]++Qt−τ+1​.

A period with on-hand inventory yyy costs, in expectation, C(y)=h E[y−D]++b E[D−y]+C(y) = h\,E[y - D]^+ + b\,E[D - y]^+C(y)=hE[y−D]++bE[D−y]+, with holding cost hhh and lost-sales penalty bbb. The long-run average cost of level SSS is

C(I∞(S))=lim⁡T→∞1T∑t=1TE[C(It(S))],C(I_\infty(S)) = \lim_{T\to\infty} \frac1T \sum_{t=1}^T E[C(I_t(S))],C(I∞​(S))=T→∞lim​T1​t=1∑T​E[C(It​(S))],

and S∗S^*S∗ denotes a level minimizing it over S≥0S \ge 0S≥0. Write γ(S)=P[D≤S/(τ+1)]\gamma(S) = \mathcal P[D \le S/(\tau+1)]γ(S)=P[D≤S/(τ+1)].

The algorithm \textscAdaptive(α,β)\textsc{Adaptive}(\alpha,\beta)\textscAdaptive(α,β) runs in cycles k=1,2,…k = 1, 2, \dotsk=1,2,… of length Tk=⌈kβ⌉T_k = \lceil k^\beta\rceilTk​=⌈kβ⌉; N(L)=∑k≤LTkN(L) = \sum_{k\le L} T_kN(L)=∑k≤L​Tk​. Cycle kkk uses a fixed level SkS_kSk​. From sales data it computes a sample-path derivative I′I'I′ by a recursion over the last τ\tauτ periods, forms a gradient estimate Hk∈{h,−b,0}H_k \in \{h, -b, 0\}Hk​∈{h,−b,0} from the last period of the cycle, and sets Sk+1=P[M‾,M‾](Sk−ϵkHk)S_{k+1} = P_{[\underline M, \overline M]}(S_k - \epsilon_k H_k)Sk+1​=P[M​,M]​(Sk​−ϵk​Hk​) with ϵk=(M‾−M‾)/(max⁡{b,h}kα)\epsilon_k = (\overline M - \underline M)/(\max\{b,h\}k^\alpha)ϵk​=(M−M​)/(max{b,h}kα). The inventory is carried over between cycles. The regret after LLL cycles is

Λ(L)=E[∑k=1L∑j=1TkC(I(k,j))]−C(I∞(S∗)) N(L).\Lambda(L) = E\Big[\sum_{k=1}^L\sum_{j=1}^{T_k} C(I_{(k,j)})\Big] - C(I_\infty(S^*))\,N(L).Λ(L)=E[k=1∑L​j=1∑Tk​​C(I(k,j)​)]−C(I∞​(S∗))N(L).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10, corrected

Under Assumption 1 (0≤M‾≤S∗≤M‾0 \le \underline M \le S^* \le \overline M0≤M​≤S∗≤M and γ(M‾)>0\gamma(\underline M) > 0γ(M​)>0) and infinite support of DDD, for α,β∈(0,1)\alpha,\beta \in (0,1)α,β∈(0,1) and L≥1L \ge 1L≥1, with N=N(L)N = N(L)N=N(L) and ν=max⁡{1−γ(M‾)2τ,F(M‾),1/e}\nu = \max\{1 - \gamma(\underline M)^{2\tau}, F(\overline M), 1/e\}ν=max{1−γ(M​)2τ,F(M),1/e},

Λ(L)N≤(b+h)[(M‾−M‾)(4N1−α1+β+4/(1−α)Nα1+β+C3N11+β)+M‾ 24τ/ln⁡(1/ν)Nβ1+β],\frac{\Lambda(L)}{N} \le (b+h)\Big[(\overline M - \underline M)\Big(\frac{4}{N^{\frac{1-\alpha}{1+\beta}}} + \frac{4/(1-\alpha)}{N^{\frac{\alpha}{1+\beta}}} + \frac{C_3}{N^{\frac1{1+\beta}}}\Big) + \overline M\,\frac{24\tau/\ln(1/\nu)}{N^{\frac{\beta}{1+\beta}}}\Big],NΛ(L)​≤(b+h)[(M−M​)(N1+β1−α​4​+N1+βα​4/(1−α)​+N1+β1​C3​​)+MN1+ββ​24τ/ln(1/ν)​],

with C3=12(4τ)1/βΓ(1/β)(1/β)/(ln⁡(1/ν))1/βC_3 = 12(4\tau)^{1/\beta}\Gamma(1/\beta)(1/\beta)/(\ln(1/\nu))^{1/\beta}C3​=12(4τ)1/βΓ(1/β)(1/β)/(ln(1/ν))1/β. At α=β=1/2\alpha = \beta = 1/2α=β=1/2 this is O(N−1/3)O(N^{-1/3})O(N−1/3).

Milestones

Lemma 5 (tail of D1+⋯+DtD_1 + \dots + D_tD1​+⋯+Dt​), Lemma 6 (the inventory position falls to SSS), Theorem 7 (existence, independence of the start, convexity and differentiability of C(I∞(S))C(I_\infty(S))C(I∞​(S)), and existence of S∗S^*S∗ with γ(S∗)>0\gamma(S^*) > 0γ(S∗)>0), Theorem 11 (projected stochastic gradient descent with biased gradients), Lemmas 12 and 13 (sums over cycles of length ⌈kβ⌉\lceil k^\beta\rceil⌈kβ⌉), Lemma 14 (the regret Λ1\Lambda_1Λ1​ from Sk≠S∗S_k \ne S^*Sk​=S∗) and Lemma 15 (the transient regret Λ2\Lambda_2Λ2​).

Significance

The theorem gives a nonparametric, sales-only policy whose average cost approaches that of the best base-stock policy at an explicit polynomial rate, uniformly over demand distributions satisfying Assumption 1. Its ingredients are reusable: an explicit geometric ergodicity rate for the lost-sales base-stock chain, convexity of the long-run base-stock cost in SSS, and a regret bound for projected gradient descent whose gradients are biased by Markov dependence.

The result is published; to our knowledge none of it has been machine-checked. The mission formalizes the regret bound, which requires Markov-chain ergodicity on a continuous state space, long-run averages, and stochastic approximation with biased gradients. It also repairs the printed constants: Theorem 10 and Lemma 15 are false as printed (see Formalization scope), and the formal statements make the dependence on M‾\overline MM explicit.

Difficulty

The obvious route treats the cycle's last-period derivative as an unbiased gradient of C(I∞(Sk))C(I_\infty(S_k))C(I∞​(Sk​)) and applies standard online convex optimization. That fails: the estimate is computed from a Markov chain started at whatever state the previous cycle left, so it is biased, and the bias decays only as the chain mixes. Controlling the bias requires an explicit mixing rate for a chain on R+τ×{0,1}τ\mathbb R^\tau_+ \times \{0,1\}^\tauR+τ​×{0,1}τ whose state includes the derivative process, uniformly over the levels in [M‾,M‾][\underline M, \overline M][M​,M] and over starting positions above SSS. The ergodicity argument uses a coalescing demand pattern, which exists only when γ(S)>0\gamma(S) > 0γ(S)>0; without that condition the chain need not be ergodic. A second obstacle is that the objective C(I∞(S))C(I_\infty(S))C(I∞​(S)) is defined as a long-run average, so its convexity and differentiability in SSS must be established before any gradient argument applies.

Formalization scope

Everything is stated in Lean 4 with Mathlib. The inventory vector is a pair (pipeline Fin (τ-1) → ℝ, newest order first; on-hand ℝ). Lean periods are 000-based (Lean period ttt is the paper's t+1t+1t+1); cycles are numbered from 111. Demand is a sequence on a probability space that is i.i.d., nonnegative, integrable, with E[D]>0E[D] > 0E[D]>0 and an atomless law; infinite support is F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for all xxx; τ≥1\tau \ge 1τ≥1, h,b>0h, b > 0h,b>0. The long-run cost is a limsup of Cesàro averages from the empty start (Theorem 7 shows it is a limit from every start), and S∗S^*S∗ is any minimizer over [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). The algorithm is a deterministic function of the demand path; the sample derivative is the recursion the algorithm computes, not a derivative. Integrability of every expectation follows from boundedness of the inventory and is not assumed.

Corrections, all disclosed in the items: Theorem 10 carries M‾\overline MM instead of M‾−M‾\overline M - \underline MM−M​ on the C4C_4C4​ term, because the printed bound fails for M‾=M‾=S∗\underline M = \overline M = S^*M​=M=S∗, X(1,1)=0X_{(1,1)} = 0X(1,1)​=0, L=1L = 1L=1, where the right side is 000 and Λ(1)=C(0)−C(I∞(S∗))>0\Lambda(1) = C(0) - C(I_\infty(S^*)) > 0Λ(1)=C(0)−C(I∞​(S∗))>0. Lemma 15 carries M‾\overline MM and 12τ+112\tau + 112τ+1. Lemma 14 keeps its printed constant; its proof appears to use the ergodicity theorem one period early. Theorem 11 is stated on an interval with the bias taken conditionally on the history. Lemmas 5 and 6 are stated for infinite support only.

A goal that bounds the regret by Λ1\Lambda_1Λ1​ alone (costs at the steady state of SkS_kSk​), or that lets the levels be any sequence in [M‾,M‾][\underline M, \overline M][M​,M], is not the theorem: the regret here uses the realized inventory of the algorithm. Lean's conventions x/0=0x/0 = 0x/0=0 and ln⁡\lnln of a nonpositive number cannot trivialize the bound, because infinite support and γ(M‾)>0\gamma(\underline M) > 0γ(M​)>0 give ν∈[1/e,1)\nu \in [1/e, 1)ν∈[1/e,1). The source is the authors' working paper of February 8, 2007, whose printed page numbers equal the PDF's.

Not yet stated: Theorem 3 and Lemma 4 (ergodicity rate), Theorem 8 and Lemma 9 (bias bounds), Theorem 1 (sample derivatives). They need the joint chain (Xt,Xt′)(X_t, X'_t)(Xt​,Xt′​) and are welcome as contributions, as are the general pieces: geometric ergodicity via coalescence, and the biased projected-gradient bound.

Selected references

  • W. T. Huh, G. Janakiraman, J. A. Muckstadt, P. Rusmevichientong, An Adaptive Algorithm for Finding the Optimal Base-Stock Policy in Lost Sales Inventory Systems with Censored Demand, working paper, 2007; Mathematics of Operations Research 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1080.0367
  • W. T. Huh, G. Janakiraman, J. A. Muckstadt, P. Rusmevichientong, Asymptotic Optimality of Order-up-to Policies in Lost Sales Inventory Systems, Management Science 55(3), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1080.0945
  • W. T. Huh, P. Rusmevichientong, A Nonparametric Asymptotic Analysis of Inventory Planning with Censored Demand, Mathematics of Operations Research 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1080.0355
  • G. Janakiraman, R. O. Roundy, Lost-Sales Problems with Stochastic Lead Times: Convexity Results for Base-Stock Policies, Operations Research 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1040.0130
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Machine LearningOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

A Nonparametric Asymptotic Analysis of Inventory Planning with Censored Demand 1: AIM's Average Expected Cost Is Within O(1/√T) of the Newsvendor Cost, Perishable and Non-PerishableResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer who restocks a product every period must choose an order-up-to level without knowing the demand distribution, and in most retail settings it observes only sales, the minimum of demand and stock. Demand above the stock is lost and never recorded. This is censored demand: the data needed to estimate the distribution are truncated exactly at the decision. Classical inventory theory assumes the distribution is known, and then the optimal policy in the stationary case is to order up to the newsvendor quantity in every period.

Huh and Rusmevichientong (Math. Oper. Res. 34(1), 2009) give a nonparametric policy that learns from censored sales alone, the Adaptive Inventory Management (AIM) algorithm, and prove that its average expected cost approaches the newsvendor cost at rate 1/T1/\sqrt T1/T​. The perishable case reduces to online convex optimization in the sense of Zinkevich (2003) and Flaxman, Kalai and McMahan (2005). The non-perishable case is new: leftover stock constrains the next decision, and the paper controls this constraint through a single-server queue.

Setting

Demands D1,D2,⋯≥0D_1, D_2, \dots \ge 0D1​,D2​,⋯≥0 are independent and identically distributed with an unknown law of finite mean; DDD denotes a generic demand and FFF its distribution function. A holding cost h>0h > 0h>0 is paid per unit left over and a penalty b>0b > 0b>0 per unit of lost demand. The newsvendor cost of a level y≥0y \ge 0y≥0 is

Q(y)=h E[y−D]++b E[D−y]+,Q(y) = h\,E[y-D]^+ + b\,E[D-y]^+ ,Q(y)=hE[y−D]++bE[D−y]+,

and the newsvendor quantity is yNV=inf⁡{y≥0∣F(y)≥b/(b+h)}y^{NV} = \inf\{y \ge 0 \mid F(y) \ge b/(b+h)\}yNV=inf{y≥0∣F(y)≥b/(b+h)}.

In period ttt the manager holds xt≥0x_t \ge 0xt​≥0 units (x1=0x_1 = 0x1​=0), raises the stock to yt≥xty_t \ge x_tyt​≥xt​, and observes min⁡{Dt,yt}\min\{D_t, y_t\}min{Dt​,yt​}. Excess inventory is either perishable (xt+1=0x_{t+1} = 0xt+1​=0) or non-perishable (xt+1=[yt−Dt]+x_{t+1} = [y_t - D_t]^+xt+1​=[yt​−Dt​]+).

Assumption 1 gives the manager a bound yˉ≥yNV\bar y \ge y^{NV}yˉ​≥yNV, and in the non-perishable case a bound ρ\rhoρ with 0<ρ<E[D1]0 < \rho < E[D_1]0<ρ<E[D1​]. AIM keeps a target y^t\hat y_ty^​t​ and an implemented level yty_tyt​: y1=y^1∈[0,yˉ]y_1 = \hat y_1 \in [0, \bar y]y1​=y^​1​∈[0,yˉ​], and for t≥1t \ge 1t≥1

y^t+1=P[0,yˉ](y^t−ϵtHt(y^t)),yt+1=max⁡{y^t+1,xt+1},\hat y_{t+1} = P_{[0,\bar y]}\big(\hat y_t - \epsilon_t H_t(\hat y_t)\big), \qquad y_{t+1} = \max\{\hat y_{t+1}, x_{t+1}\},y^​t+1​=P[0,yˉ​]​(y^​t​−ϵt​Ht​(y^​t​)),yt+1​=max{y^​t+1​,xt+1​},

with the projection P[0,yˉ](z)=max⁡{min⁡{z,yˉ},0}P_{[0,\bar y]}(z) = \max\{\min\{z,\bar y\},0\}P[0,yˉ​]​(z)=max{min{z,yˉ​},0}, steps ϵt=γyˉ/(max⁡{b,h}t)\epsilon_t = \gamma\bar y/(\max\{b,h\}\sqrt t)ϵt​=γyˉ​/(max{b,h}t​) for a scale γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0, and the censored gradient estimate Ht(y^t)=hH_t(\hat y_t) = hHt​(y^​t​)=h if Dt<y^tD_t < \hat y_tDt​<y^​t​ and −b-b−b if Dt≥y^tD_t \ge \hat y_tDt​≥y^​t​. The manager can compute HtH_tHt​ from the observed sales.

For θ>0\theta > 0θ>0 the waiting times W1(θ)=0W_1(\theta) = 0W1​(θ)=0, Wt+1(θ)=[Wt(θ)+θ−Dt]+W_{t+1}(\theta) = [W_t(\theta) + \theta - D_t]^+Wt+1​(θ)=[Wt​(θ)+θ−Dt​]+ describe a GI/D/1 queue with inter-arrival times DtD_tDt​ and service time θ\thetaθ. Its busy periods Ji(θ)J_i(\theta)Ji​(θ) are the stretches between successive returns to 000. The auxiliary queue Z1(θ)=0Z_1(\theta) = 0Z1​(θ)=0, Zt+1(θ)=[Zt(θ)+θ/t−Dt]+Z_{t+1}(\theta) = [Z_t(\theta) + \theta/\sqrt t - D_t]^+Zt+1​(θ)=[Zt​(θ)+θ/t​−Dt​]+ has shrinking service times.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2

For every T≥1T \ge 1T≥1, in the perishable case

E[1T∑t=1TQ(yt)]−Q(yNV)≤(γ+1γ)yˉmax⁡{b,h}T,E\Big[\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T Q(y_t)\Big] - Q(y^{NV}) \le \Big(\gamma + \frac1\gamma\Big)\frac{\bar y\max\{b,h\}}{\sqrt T},E[T1​t=1∑T​Q(yt​)]−Q(yNV)≤(γ+γ1​)T​yˉ​max{b,h}​,

and in the non-perishable case, if E[D16]<∞E[D_1^6] < \inftyE[D16​]<∞ and γ≤ρmax⁡{b,h}/(hyˉ)\gamma \le \rho\max\{b,h\}/(h\bar y)γ≤ρmax{b,h}/(hyˉ​), there is a constant CCC, independent of TTT, with

E[1T∑t=1TQ(yt)]−Q(yNV)≤CT.E\Big[\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T Q(y_t)\Big] - Q(y^{NV}) \le \frac{C}{\sqrt T}.E[T1​t=1∑T​Q(yt​)]−Q(yNV)≤T​C​.

The non-perishable bullet asserts only the existence of CCC, because the paper's explicit formula (9) depends on Proposition 4 (i), which is false as printed.

Milestones

  • §2.4: QQQ is convex with left derivative hP{D<y}−bP{D≥y}h P\{D<y\} - bP\{D\ge y\}hP{D<y}−bP{D≥y}, and E[Ht∣y^t]E[H_t \mid \hat y_t]E[Ht​∣y^​t​] equals it.
  • Lemma 3: projected stochastic subgradient descent with steps γdiam⁡(S)/(Bˉt)\gamma\operatorname{diam}(S)/(\bar B\sqrt t)γdiam(S)/(Bˉt​) has average error at most (γ+1/γ)diam⁡(S)Bˉ/T(\gamma + 1/\gamma)\operatorname{diam}(S)\bar B/\sqrt T(γ+1/γ)diam(S)Bˉ/T​.
  • §2.4: Q(y)−Q(y^)≤h(y−y^)Q(y) - Q(\hat y) \le h(y - \hat y)Q(y)−Q(y^​)≤h(y−y^​) for 0≤y^≤y0 \le \hat y \le y0≤y^​≤y.
  • Theorem 6: if γ≤ρmax⁡{b,h}/(hyˉ)\gamma \le \rho\max\{b,h\}/(h\bar y)γ≤ρmax{b,h}/(hyˉ​), then yt−y^t≤Zt(ρ)y_t - \hat y_t \le Z_t(\rho)yt​−y^​t​≤Zt​(ρ).
  • Lemma 13: E∣Ji(θ,t)(θ)∣≤E[∣J1(θ)∣2]E|J_{i(\theta,t)}(\theta)| \le E[|J_1(\theta)|^2]E∣Ji(θ,t)​(θ)∣≤E[∣J1​(θ)∣2].
  • Lemma 5: E[∑t=1TZt(θ)]≤2θE[∣J1(θ)∣2]TE[\sum_{t=1}^T Z_t(\theta)] \le 2\theta E[|J_1(\theta)|^2]\sqrt TE[∑t=1T​Zt​(θ)]≤2θE[∣J1​(θ)∣2]T​.
  • Lemma 12: E[(∑i≤nXi)6]≤21n3EX16E[(\sum_{i\le n} X_i)^6] \le 21 n^3 E X_1^6E[(∑i≤n​Xi​)6]≤21n3EX16​ for i.i.d. mean-zero XiX_iXi​ (and the fourth-moment analogue).
  • Proposition 4 (i), corrected: E[∣J1(θ)∣2]≤1+21π22E[(D1−ED1)6]/(ED1−θ)6E[|J_1(\theta)|^2] \le 1 + \tfrac{21\pi^2}{2}E[(D_1 - ED_1)^6]/(ED_1 - \theta)^6E[∣J1​(θ)∣2]≤1+221π2​E[(D1​−ED1​)6]/(ED1​−θ)6 for 0<θ<E[D1]0 < \theta < E[D_1]0<θ<E[D1​].

Significance

Theorem 2 shows that a manager who never observes lost sales can still reach the cost of a manager who knows the distribution, at a dimension-free rate, under only a sixth-moment condition in the non-perishable case. The example of §2.5 of the paper shows that the rate 1/T1/\sqrt T1/T​ cannot be improved in general for AIM. Theorem 6, the coupling of the excess inventory yt−y^ty_t - \hat y_tyt​−y^​t​ with a queue, is the step that handles decisions constrained by past decisions, and the same paper reuses it when ρ\rhoρ is unknown (§3.2).

The results are proved in the paper, and none of them is formalized as far as is known. This mission formalizes them and also corrects them: Proposition 4 (i) fails for deterministic demand, its explicit constant has to be replaced, and Eq. (2) labels a right derivative as a left one. Lemma 3 for decreasing steps and Lemma 12 are standard tools that are not in Mathlib.

Difficulty

The perishable case is a stochastic subgradient method, but its estimates are conditionally unbiased only given the current iterate, and QQQ is merely convex, not differentiable, so the textbook smooth argument does not apply directly. In the non-perishable case the implemented levels yty_tyt​ are not the gradient iterates, and yt−y^ty_t - \hat y_tyt​−y^​t​ is not small along a path: carried-over stock can keep yty_tyt​ above the target for many periods. A bound on E[yt−y^t]E[y_t - \hat y_t]E[yt​−y^​t​] for each ttt does not follow from a bound on one period. The queue Zt(ρ)Z_t(\rho)Zt​(ρ) dominates the whole excess process, but it is non-stationary. Its sum has to be compared with the stationary queue Wt(ρ)W_t(\rho)Wt​(ρ), whose busy period covering a fixed time is length-biased, so second moments of busy periods enter.

Formalization scope

All declarations are in the namespace AIMInventory.Known. The demand law and the i.i.d. path measure are the published CappedBaseStock.DemandLaw and demandPathLaw, whose law has finite and strictly positive mean. QQQ and yNVy^{NV}yNV are the published backorderCost and newsvendorLevel of LostSalesOrderUpTo.Asymptotic.Backorder. The optimality of yNVy^{NV}yNV is the already posed LostSalesOrderUpTo.Asymptotic.newsvendor_optimal and is included as a reference.

Conventions:

  • The demand path is zero-based (DtD_tDt​ is d (t - 1)), and all paper indices t≥1t \ge 1t≥1 are kept.
  • The AIM run, WWW, ZZZ, the renewal epochs and the busy periods are functions of the demand path, defined by recursion exactly as printed.
  • The queue indexing is W1=Z1=0W_1 = Z_1 = 0W1​=Z1​=0 and τ0=1\tau_0 = 1τ0​=1 (the paper's W0W_0W0​, Z0Z_0Z0​ need an undefined D0D_0D0​ and θ/0\theta/\sqrt 0θ/0​). Period 111 lies in no busy period, so Lemma 13 is stated for t≥2t \ge 2t≥2.
  • Busy-period lengths are ℕ∞-valued. Every expectation that can be infinite is a lower Lebesgue integral in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. The expectations in Theorem 2 have bounded integrands.
  • Readings of loose phrases:
    • "for some γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0" means for every γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0;
    • "any value in [0,yˉ][0,\bar y][0,yˉ​]" means for every y^1∈[0,yˉ]\hat y_1 \in [0, \bar y]y^​1​∈[0,yˉ​];
    • "with probability one" in Theorem 6 means for every demand path;
    • "There is a constant CCC" means ∃C, ∀T≥1\exists C,\ \forall T \ge 1∃C, ∀T≥1.
  • The implicit positivity of hhh, bbb, yˉ\bar yyˉ​ (they appear in denominators) is added as hypotheses.
  • Lemma 3 is stated on Rn\mathbb R^nRn for every comparator u∈Su \in Su∈S, with E[H(z)∣z]E[H(z)\mid z]E[H(z)∣z] read as conditioning on the σ-algebra of the current iterate.
  • Proposition 4 (ii) and the explicit constant (9) are not stated.

The mission does not accept a formalization that sums over arbitrary sequences with yt≥y^ty_t \ge \hat y_tyt​≥y^​t​ instead of the AIM run, uses an uncensored gradient, or lets a non-integrable expectation default to 000.

Contributions toward a stochastic subgradient method with anytime steps, moment bounds for i.i.d. sums, and busy periods of Lindley's recursion are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • W. T. Huh, P. Rusmevichientong, A Nonparametric Asymptotic Analysis of Inventory Planning with Censored Demand, Mathematics of Operations Research 34(1), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1080.0355
  • M. Zinkevich, Online Convex Programming and Generalized Infinitesimal Gradient Ascent, ICML 2003. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3041838.3041955
  • A. Flaxman, A. T. Kalai, H. B. McMahan, Online Convex Optimization in the Bandit Setting: Gradient Descent without a Gradient, SODA 2005. https://arxiv.org/abs/cs/0408007
  • E. Hazan, A. Agarwal, S. Kale, Logarithmic Regret Algorithms for Online Convex Optimization, Machine Learning 69, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-007-5016-8
15 thms3 active usersReviewed
Machine LearningOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

A Nonparametric Asymptotic Analysis of Inventory Planning with Censored Demand 3: For Any Step Scale γ, Non-Perishable AIM's Excess Cost Λ₂(T) Is Bounded by a Hitting Time and a Busy PeriodResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer who stocks a perishable or storable product each period must choose an order-up-to level without knowing the demand distribution. Worse, demand is censored: when the shelf empties, the retailer observes sales, not demand. Huh and Rusmevichientong (Math. Oper. Res. 34(1), 2009) proposed the Adaptive Inventory Management (AIM) algorithm, a projected stochastic subgradient method that uses only the censored observation "was there stock left at the end of the period?". They proved that its average expected cost converges to the cost of the optimal newsvendor level at rate O(1/T)O(1/\sqrt T)O(1/T​), with no parametric assumption on demand.

In the non-perishable case, where leftover stock carries over, the main convergence theorem (Theorem 2, p. 7) requires the step-size scale γ\gammaγ to satisfy γ≤ρmax⁡{b,h}/(hyˉ)\gamma\le\rho\max\{b,h\}/(h\bar y)γ≤ρmax{b,h}/(hyˉ​), where ρ\rhoρ is a known lower bound on mean demand. Section 3.2 of the paper removes this requirement. Its Theorem 8 bounds the excess cost of AIM for every step scale γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, at the price of a hitting time and a busy period in the bound. This mission formalizes Theorem 8 and the steps of its proof.

Setting

Demands D1,D2,…D_1,D_2,\dotsD1​,D2​,… are independent, nonnegative, identically distributed, with finite positive mean E[D1]E[D_1]E[D1​] and otherwise unknown law. The holding cost is h>0h>0h>0 per unit left over and the penalty is b>0b>0b>0 per unit of unmet demand. The newsvendor cost of stocking up to y≥0y\ge0y≥0 is

Q(y)=h E[y−D1]++b E[D1−y]+,Q(y)=h\,E[y-D_1]^+ + b\,E[D_1-y]^+ ,Q(y)=hE[y−D1​]++bE[D1​−y]+,

and the newsvendor quantity is yNV=inf⁡{y≥0:P(D1≤y)≥b/(b+h)}y^{NV}=\inf\{y\ge0: P(D_1\le y)\ge b/(b+h)\}yNV=inf{y≥0:P(D1​≤y)≥b/(b+h)}. The manager knows an upper bound yˉ≥yNV\bar y\ge y^{NV}yˉ​≥yNV.

AIM, non-perishable case. Fix γ>0\gamma>0γ>0 and a starting target y^1∈[0,yˉ]\hat y_1\in[0,\bar y]y^​1​∈[0,yˉ​]. Put y1=y^1y_1=\hat y_1y1​=y^​1​, x1=0x_1=0x1​=0. In period t≥1t\ge1t≥1 the step is ϵt=γyˉ/(max⁡{b,h}t)\epsilon_t=\gamma\bar y/(\max\{b,h\}\sqrt t)ϵt​=γyˉ​/(max{b,h}t​), the observed slope is Ht=hH_t=hHt​=h if Dt<y^tD_t<\hat y_tDt​<y^​t​ and Ht=−bH_t=-bHt​=−b otherwise, and

y^t+1=max⁡{min⁡{y^t−ϵtHt,yˉ},0},xt+1=[yt−Dt]+,yt+1=max⁡{y^t+1,xt+1}.\hat y_{t+1}=\max\{\min\{\hat y_t-\epsilon_tH_t,\bar y\},0\},\qquad x_{t+1}=[y_t-D_t]^+,\qquad y_{t+1}=\max\{\hat y_{t+1},x_{t+1}\}.y^​t+1​=max{min{y^​t​−ϵt​Ht​,yˉ​},0},xt+1​=[yt​−Dt​]+,yt+1​=max{y^​t+1​,xt+1​}.

The target y^t\hat y_ty^​t​ follows the gradient step. The implemented level yty_tyt​ can exceed it because stock that has already been bought cannot be returned. The excess-cost term is

Λ2(T)=E[1T∑t=1T(Q(yt)−Q(y^t))].\Lambda_2(T)=E\Big[\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T\big(Q(y_t)-Q(\hat y_t)\big)\Big].Λ2​(T)=E[T1​t=1∑T​(Q(yt​)−Q(y^​t​))].

Auxiliary processes. Let m=hγyˉ/max⁡{b,h}m=h\gamma\bar y/\max\{b,h\}m=hγyˉ​/max{b,h}. For a real θ\thetaθ:

  • W1(θ)=0W_1(\theta)=0W1​(θ)=0, Wt+1(θ)=[Wt(θ)+θ−Dt]+W_{t+1}(\theta)=[W_t(\theta)+\theta-D_t]^+Wt+1​(θ)=[Wt​(θ)+θ−Dt​]+ is a queue with constant inflow. Its first busy period has length ∣J1(θ)∣=inf⁡{t>1:Wt(θ)=0}−1|J_1(\theta)|=\inf\{t>1:W_t(\theta)=0\}-1∣J1​(θ)∣=inf{t>1:Wt​(θ)=0}−1.
  • Z1(θ)=0Z_1(\theta)=0Z1​(θ)=0, Zt+1(θ)=[Zt(θ)+θ/t−Dt]+Z_{t+1}(\theta)=[Z_t(\theta)+\theta/\sqrt t-D_t]^+Zt+1​(θ)=[Zt​(θ)+θ/t​−Dt​]+ is a queue with decreasing inflow.
  • K(θ,z)=min⁡{t≥0:z+∑s=1t(θ−Ds)≤0}K(\theta,z)=\min\{t\ge0: z+\sum_{s=1}^t(\theta-D_s)\le0\}K(θ,z)=min{t≥0:z+∑s=1t​(θ−Ds​)≤0} is the hitting time of (−∞,0](-\infty,0](−∞,0] by the random walk started at zzz.

For 0<ρ′<m0<\rho'<m0<ρ′<m, the proof uses T~=⌈(m/ρ′)2⌉\tilde T=\lceil(m/\rho')^2\rceilT~=⌈(m/ρ′)2⌉ and K~=min⁡{t>T~:Zt(m)=0}\tilde K=\min\{t>\tilde T:Z_t(m)=0\}K~=min{t>T~:Zt​(m)=0}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8 (p. 13)

For every T≥1T\ge1T≥1 and every ρ′\rho'ρ′ with 0<ρ′<min⁡{m,E[D1]}0<\rho'<\min\{m,E[D_1]\}0<ρ′<min{m,E[D1​]},

Λ2(T)≤max⁡{b,h} yˉT{⌈(m/ρ′)2⌉+E[K(ρ′,22 m2ρ′)]}+2hm E[∣J1(ρ′)∣2]T.\Lambda_2(T)\le\frac{\max\{b,h\}\,\bar y}{T}\Big\{\big\lceil(m/\rho')^2\big\rceil+E\Big[K\Big(\rho',\frac{2\sqrt2\,m^2}{\rho'}\Big)\Big]\Big\}+\frac{2hm\,E\big[|J_1(\rho')|^2\big]}{\sqrt T}.Λ2​(T)≤Tmax{b,h}yˉ​​{⌈(m/ρ′)2⌉+E[K(ρ′,ρ′22​m2​)]}+T​2hmE[∣J1​(ρ′)∣2]​.

The statement makes no moment assumption on demand. It is stated with the paper's explicit constants, and both expectations on the right may be infinite.

Milestones

  1. Coupling (proof of Theorem 8, p. 13). For every demand path and every t≥1t\ge1t≥1, yt−y^t≤Zt(m)y_t-\hat y_t\le Z_t(m)yt​−y^​t​≤Zt​(m).
  2. Restart bound (p. 14). For 0<ρ′<m0<\rho'<m0<ρ′<m, E[K~]≤⌈(m/ρ′)2⌉+E[K(ρ′,22m2/ρ′)]E[\tilde K]\le\lceil(m/\rho')^2\rceil+E[K(\rho',2\sqrt2m^2/\rho')]E[K~]≤⌈(m/ρ′)2⌉+E[K(ρ′,22​m2/ρ′)].
  3. Claim (14) (p. 14, proved in Appendix E). For 0<ρ′<min⁡{m,E[D1]}0<\rho'<\min\{m,E[D_1]\}0<ρ′<min{m,E[D1​]}, hTE[∑t=K~+1TZt(m)]≤2hm E[∣J1(ρ′)∣2]/T\frac hT E\big[\sum_{t=\tilde K+1}^T Z_t(m)\big]\le 2hm\,E[|J_1(\rho')|^2]/\sqrt TTh​E[∑t=K~+1T​Zt​(m)]≤2hmE[∣J1​(ρ′)∣2]/T​.
  4. Lemma 9, corrected (p. 13). If θ<E[D1]\theta<E[D_1]θ<E[D1​], E[D14]<∞E[D_1^4]<\inftyE[D14​]<∞ and z>0z>0z>0, then E[K(θ,z)]≤1+2zE[D1]−θ+8π2E[(D1−E[D1])4](E[D1]−θ)4E[K(\theta,z)]\le1+\frac{2z}{E[D_1]-\theta}+\frac{8\pi^2E[(D_1-E[D_1])^4]}{(E[D_1]-\theta)^4}E[K(θ,z)]≤1+E[D1​]−θ2z​+(E[D1​]−θ)48π2E[(D1​−E[D1​])4]​.

Significance

The result. The cost of AIM relative to the newsvendor benchmark splits as Λ1(T)+Λ2(T)\Lambda_1(T)+\Lambda_2(T)Λ1​(T)+Λ2​(T). Stochastic subgradient descent controls Λ1(T)\Lambda_1(T)Λ1​(T) for every γ\gammaγ, so Theorem 8 is the remaining step in showing that AIM converges at rate O(1/T)O(1/\sqrt T)O(1/T​) without any knowledge of a lower bound on mean demand. The first term of the bound is O(1/T)O(1/T)O(1/T) whenever E[K]E[K]E[K] is finite, and Lemma 9 gives that under a finite fourth moment. The second term is O(1/T)O(1/\sqrt T)O(1/T​) whenever E[∣J1∣2]E[|J_1|^2]E[∣J1​∣2] is finite, and the paper's Proposition 4 gives that under a finite sixth moment. The result therefore removes the one piece of prior information about demand, other than yˉ\bar yyˉ​, that the non-perishable analysis needed.

Formalizing it. The paper's proof is complete and short, but it moves between expectations of random indices, pathwise couplings and renewal arguments, and the statements of Theorem 8 and Lemma 9 contain the slips recorded below. None of these results has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a checked AIM recursion, a pathwise domination of excess inventory by a queue, and hitting-time and busy-period bounds for random walks with nonnegative i.i.d. decrements.

Difficulty

The argument behind Theorem 2 dominates yt−y^ty_t-\hat y_tyt​−y^​t​ by a queue whose inflow ρ/t\rho/\sqrt tρ/t​ is below the mean demand. For large γ\gammaγ the inflow m/tm/\sqrt tm/t​ exceeds E[D1]E[D_1]E[D1​] in early periods, so the queue Z(m)Z(m)Z(m) is unstable at first and its busy periods are not controlled by a stationary queue. A direct bound on E[∑tZt(m)]E[\sum_t Z_t(m)]E[∑t​Zt​(m)] through busy periods of W(m)W(m)W(m) fails, because W(m)W(m)W(m) may never empty when m≥E[D1]m\ge E[D_1]m≥E[D1​]. The proof therefore separates a random initial stretch, which ends at the first time after T~\tilde TT~ that Z(m)Z(m)Z(m) empties, from the remainder. The two parts are bounded by different processes. The random index K~\tilde KK~ sits inside the sums, so the expectations have to be handled with that dependence.

Formalization scope

  • Demand uses the published definition CappedBaseStock_Model (DemandLaw, the i.i.d. path measure demandPathLaw). Its law has finite and strictly positive mean. The cost QQQ and yNVy^{NV}yNV are the published backorderCost and newsvendorLevel of LostSalesOrderUpTo.Asymptotic.Backorder. Both are reused, not redefined.
  • The demand path is zero-based: the paper's DtD_tDt​ is d (t-1). AIM is a deterministic recursion on the path, and y^t,yt,xt\hat y_t,y_t,x_ty^​t​,yt​,xt​ depend on D1,…,Dt−1D_1,\dots,D_{t-1}D1​,…,Dt−1​ only. Levels are real numbers, and QQQ is evaluated at nonnegative levels.
  • The conventions are Z1=W1=0Z_1=W_1=0Z1​=W1​=0 and τ0=1\tau_0=1τ0​=1. The paper's own indexing (Z0=0Z_0=0Z0​=0 in (7)) is undefined at t=0t=0t=0, and these are the conventions its proofs use.
  • KKK, ∣J1∣|J_1|∣J1​∣ and K~\tilde KK~ take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and E[K]E[K]E[K], E[∣J1∣2]E[|J_1|^2]E[∣J1​∣2], E[K~]E[\tilde K]E[K~] are Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. Theorem 8 and Claim (14) are stated in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. A divergent expectation therefore makes a bound trivially true. It can never make a bound false or vacuous through a junk value 000. Λ2(T)\Lambda_2(T)Λ2​(T) is a real expectation of a bounded integrand.
  • Explicit readings of loose phrases: "for any choice of the parameter γ\gammaγ" means every γ>0\gamma>0γ>0. "Set y1=y^1y_1=\hat y_1y1​=y^​1​ to any value in [0,yˉ][0,\bar y][0,yˉ​]" means the statements hold for every such start. "With probability one" in the coupling is stated pathwise. 0<ρ′0<\rho'0<ρ′ is added (the bound divides by ρ′\rho'ρ′), as are h,b,yˉ>0h,b,\bar y>0h,b,yˉ​>0. In Claim (14) the random lower limit K~\tilde KK~ is read inside the expectation, as in (13) and Appendix E.
  • Lemma 9 is false as printed: for D≡1D\equiv1D≡1, θ=0\theta=0θ=0, z=1/4z=1/4z=1/4 one has K=1K=1K=1 while the printed bound is 1/21/21/2. The mission states it with an additive 111, which is what the printed proof gives once the integers below 2z/(E[D1]−θ)2z/(E[D_1]-\theta)2z/(E[D1​]−θ) are counted correctly.
  • Ruled out: stating the goal about an arbitrary sequence of levels instead of the AIM recursion, taking E[K]E[K]E[K] or E[∣J1∣2]E[|J_1|^2]E[∣J1​∣2] as real Bochner integrals (which are 000 when the expectation diverges and would make the bound false), and dropping the newsvendor bound yNV≤yˉy^{NV}\le\bar yyNV≤yˉ​ from the goal.
  • Welcome contributions: a reusable Lindley-recursion (see Asmussen 2003, Ch. III) and busy-period library (the inspection-paradox bound E∣Ji(θ,s)(θ)∣≤E∣J1(θ)∣2E|J_{i(\theta,s)}(\theta)|\le E|J_1(\theta)|^2E∣Ji(θ,s)​(θ)∣≤E∣J1​(θ)∣2, Lemma 13 of the paper), fourth-moment Markov bounds for sums of i.i.d. centred variables, and shift invariance of the i.i.d. path measure.

Selected references

  • W. T. Huh and P. Rusmevichientong, A Nonparametric Asymptotic Analysis of Inventory Planning with Censored Demand, Mathematics of Operations Research 34(1):103–123, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1080.0355
  • S. Asmussen, Applied Probability and Queues, 2nd ed., Springer, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/b97236
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Dynamic ProgrammingMachine LearningProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Stable Function Approximation in Dynamic Programming II: In a Nondiscounted MDP with All Policies Proper, Value Iteration Through a Self-Weighted Averager ConvergesResearch Paper

Motivation

Value iteration solves a Markov decision process by repeatedly applying the Bellman backup to a table of state values. When the state space is too large for a table, the values are stored in a function approximator instead: each backup is followed by a fit, and the fitted function is backed up again. This approximate value iteration is the basis of fitted dynamic programming and of much of reinforcement learning, and it was known in the early 1990s to diverge for common approximators such as linear regression and neural networks (Boyan and Moore, 1995, cited in the report as [BM95]).

Gordon's technical report (Stable Function Approximation in Dynamic Programming, CMU-CS-95-103, 1995; conference version at ICML 1995) identified a class of approximators, the averagers (k-nearest-neighbour, kernel averaging, linear and bilinear interpolation on a grid), for which the combination is stable. For discounted problems stability follows from a norm argument. For nondiscounted problems, where the backup contracts only in a weighted norm, that argument fails, and the report proves convergence by a different route: approximate value iteration is exact value iteration on a derived MDP. This mission formalizes that route and its conclusion, Corollary 4.1 (p. 11).

Setting

A finite nondiscounted Markov decision process MMM has non-goal states x=1,…,nx=1,\dots,nx=1,…,n, a finite nonempty action set U(x)U(x)U(x) at each state, an expected one-step cost cxac_{xa}cxa​, and transition probabilities paxy≥0p_{axy}\ge 0paxy​≥0 with ∑ypaxy≤1\sum_y p_{axy}\le 1∑y​paxy​≤1. The missing mass 1−∑ypaxy1-\sum_y p_{axy}1−∑y​paxy​ is the probability of moving to a cost-free absorbing goal state, which the paper calls state 111. A value function is a vector V∈RnV\in\mathbb R^nV∈Rn; the goal's value is 000. The parallel value backup is

(TMV)(x)=min⁡a∈U(x)[cxa+∑ypaxyV(y)],(T_M V)(x)=\min_{a\in U(x)}\Bigl[c_{xa}+\sum_y p_{axy}V(y)\Bigr],(TM​V)(x)=a∈U(x)min​[cxa​+y∑​paxy​V(y)],

and with a discount factor γ\gammaγ the sum is multiplied by γ\gammaγ. A policy μ\muμ chooses an admissible action at each state; it is proper if, from every starting state, the probability of having reached the goal after ttt steps tends to 111.

An averager AAA consists of constants kyk_yky​, nonnegative weights βy\beta_yβy​ and nonnegative weights βyz\beta_{yz}βyz​ (zzz ranging over all states, the goal included) with βy+∑zβyz=1\beta_y+\sum_z\beta_{yz}=1βy​+∑z​βyz​=1. Its mapping is MA(V)(y)=βyky+∑zβyzV(z)M_A(V)(y)=\beta_yk_y+\sum_z\beta_{yz}V(z)MA​(V)(y)=βy​ky​+∑z​βyz​V(z). Two operators MFM_FMF​ and TTT are compatible if (MF∘T)k(V0)(M_F\circ T)^k(V_0)(MF​∘T)k(V0​) converges from every initial guess V0V_0V0​.

The derived MDP M′M'M′ has the same states and actions, transition probabilities paxz′=∑ypaxyβyzp'_{axz}=\sum_y p_{axy}\beta_{yz}paxz′​=∑y​paxy​βyz​ to non-goal states zzz, the rest of the mass going to the goal, and costs cxa′=cxa+γ∑ypaxyβykyc'_{xa}=c_{xa}+\gamma\sum_{y}p_{axy}\beta_yk_ycxa′​=cxa​+γ∑y​paxy​βy​ky​.

The states are layered by distance from the goal: S1={1}S_1=\{1\}S1​={1}, Uk=⋃j<kSjU_k=\bigcup_{j<k}S_jUk​=⋃j<k​Sj​, and SkS_kSk​ is the set of states outside UkU_kUk​ from which every action reaches UkU_kUk​ with positive probability. Write k(x)k(x)k(x) for the index of the layer containing xxx. The averager is self-weighted for MMM if for every state yyy either βy>0\beta_y>0βy​>0 or βyx>0\beta_{yx}>0βyx​>0 for some state xxx with k(x)≤k(y)k(x)\le k(y)k(x)≤k(y).

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 4.1 (p. 11)

If every policy of MMM is proper and AAA is self-weighted for MMM, then for every initial guess V0V_0V0​ both

(MA∘TM)k(V0)and(TM∘MA)k(V0)(M_A\circ T_M)^k(V_0)\quad\text{and}\quad(T_M\circ M_A)^k(V_0)(MA​∘TM​)k(V0​)and(TM​∘MA​)k(V0​)

converge as k→∞k\to\inftyk→∞. The first is the page's "TMT_MTM​ and MAM_AMA​ are compatible", the second its "approximate value iteration … will converge".

Milestones

  1. Theorem 4.1 (Derived MDP, p. 7): TM′=TM∘MAT_{M'}=T_M\circ M_ATM′​=TM​∘MA​, for every discount factor and for the nondiscounted backup.
  2. Exhaustiveness (p. 10, after [BT89]): if all policies of MMM are proper, every state lies in some layer SkS_kSk​.
  3. M′M'M′ terminates (p. 10): if all policies of MMM are proper and AAA is self-weighted, there is m>0m>0m>0 such that under every policy of M′M'M′ and from every state the goal is reached within mmm steps with positive probability; in particular every policy of M′M'M′ is proper.
  4. Theorem 2.3 (p. 4), in its all-policies-terminate case: value iteration converges from any initial guess. This is the published, proved item BertsekasDP.ssp_main_theorem.

A further item, Theorem 6.1 (p. 12), says the limit is V∗V^*V∗ when the optimal value function is a fixed point of MAM_AMA​, under self-weighting or under positive costs with k≥0k\ge 0k≥0.

Significance

The corollary gives a checkable, purely combinatorial condition on the approximator and the transition graph under which fitted value iteration on a stochastic shortest path problem cannot diverge. Weight decay (βy>0\beta_y>0βy​>0 everywhere) and any averager that only ever averages a state's value with values no farther from the goal satisfy it. The derived-MDP identity, Theorem 4.1, is the tool the rest of the report builds on (§5, §6.1, Appendix A): it reduces questions about approximate dynamic programming with averagers (convergence, the limit's error, the online Q-learning variant) to questions about an ordinary MDP.

The results are proved in the report, in prose. They have no machine-checked version. The formal development needed here is a finite stochastic shortest path theory (proper policies, the layer partition, termination bounds) on top of the published model BertsekasSSPModel and the proved BertsekasDP.ssp_main_theorem.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails. If all policies of MMM are proper, TMT_MTM​ contracts in some weighted max norm, and MAM_AMA​ is a nonexpansion in the unweighted max norm, but MAM_AMA​ can expand the weighted norm, so the composition need not contract. Figure 4 of the report gives a three-state chain and an averager, replacing V(2)V(2)V(2) by V(3)V(3)V(3), for which approximate value iteration diverges. The proof therefore has to go through M′M'M′ and show that self-weighting makes M′M'M′ terminate under every policy. That is a probabilistic statement about all, possibly nonstationary, policies of a new process, derived from a layer structure of the old one. Exhaustiveness of the layers itself needs a policy-construction argument.

Formalization scope

The MDP is the published BertsekasSSPModel n C: non-goal states Fin n, a finite action type C with admissible sets M.U i, costs M.g, and transition probabilities M.p whose deficit is the probability of termination. Gordon's state 1 is this implicit termination state: its value is 000 by construction, and where the partition and the averager's goal weight need to name it, it is none : Option (Fin n). This realises the page's two "without loss of generality" steps (state 1 cost-free and absorbing; β1=1\beta_1=1β1​=1, k1=0k_1=0k1​=0). The nondiscounted backup is BertsekasSSPBellmanOp M, the discounted one BertsekasDiscountedBellmanOp M γ.

The averager acts on whole value functions over the state set. An approximator that fits only a sample X0X_0X0​ of states is the special case βyx=0\beta_{yx}=0βyx​=0 for x∉X0x\notin X_0x∈/X0​. "All policies proper" quantifies over stationary policies μ : Fin n → C with admissible actions, as on p. 3. Self-weightedness is stated through layer membership, which agrees with the page's k(x)k(x)k(x) whenever the partition is exhaustive (milestone 2). Theorem 6.1 takes V∗V^*V∗ as a real fixed point of the backup; under either of its cases such a fixed point is unique and optimal. Convergence is in Rn\mathbb R^nRn, which is the same as convergence in max norm.

The goal's hypotheses concern MMM and AAA only. A formalization that assumed properness of the derived MDP, dropped the "every action" quantifier in the layers (making the partition and self-weighting weaker notions), or dropped k(x)≤k(y)k(x)\le k(y)k(x)≤k(y) (making every averager with a positive weight self-weighted) would be a different theorem.

Reusable beyond this mission: the layer partition and its exhaustiveness, and the termination bound for the derived model, are general finite stochastic shortest path facts. Contributions to any milestone are welcome, and so are proofs of the definitions-level lemmas they rely on.

Selected references

  • G. J. Gordon, Stable Function Approximation in Dynamic Programming, Technical Report CMU-CS-95-103, Carnegie Mellon University, 1995. Conference version in Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 1995. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-1-55860-377-6.50040-2
  • D. P. Bertsekas and J. N. Tsitsiklis, Parallel and Distributed Computation: Numerical Methods, Prentice Hall, 1989. ([BT89] in the report.)
  • D. P. Bertsekas and J. N. Tsitsiklis, An Analysis of Stochastic Shortest Path Problems, Mathematics of Operations Research 16(3), 1991. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.16.3.580
  • J. A. Boyan and A. W. Moore, Generalization in Reinforcement Learning: Safely Approximating the Value Function, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 7, Morgan Kaufmann, 1995. ([BM95] in the report.)
8 thms3 active usersReviewed
OptimizationProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares 3: With One Markdown or Markup Allowed, Thresholds x_n < z_n Give the Optimal PolicyResearch Paper

Motivation

Retailers of seasonal goods, home builders selling out a development, and airlines and cruise lines selling promotional fares all face the same operational question: inventory is fixed, the selling season is finite, and the price can be changed only rarely. Menu costs, advertising commitments and customer goodwill often restrict a seller to a single price change. The question is then when to change the price, and, if both a lower and a higher price are available, in which direction.

Feng and Gallego (Management Science 41(8), 1995) answered this for Poisson demand. Their §4 treats a single markdown (Theorem 1) and a single markup (Theorem 2). This mission formalizes their §5, the markup-or-markdown problem: the seller starts at a middle price and has one opportunity to move either down or up. The paper shows that the optimal policy is again described by time thresholds that depend only on the remaining stock, now two per stock level. The paper builds on the deterministic and fluid analysis of Gallego and van Ryzin (1994), where arbitrarily many price changes are allowed, and is the starting point of a literature on limited-price-change revenue management surveyed by Bitran and Caldentey (2003).

Setting

There are three prices p1<p<p2p_1 < p < p_2p1​<p<p2​. At price pip_ipi​ demand is a Poisson process of intensity λi\lambda_iλi​, and at ppp of intensity λ\lambdaλ, with

λ1>λ>λ2,r1>r>r2,ri=piλi, r=pλ,\lambda_1 > \lambda > \lambda_2, \qquad r_1 > r > r_2, \qquad r_i = p_i\lambda_i,\ r = p\lambda,λ1​>λ>λ2​,r1​>r>r2​,ri​=pi​λi​, r=pλ,

all prices and intensities positive. Lowering the price raises both the sales rate and the revenue rate. Salvage value is zero. Note that in this section p1p_1p1​ is the lower price; the initial price is ppp.

A seller with nnn units and time-to-go ttt sells at ppp and may switch once, to p1p_1p1​ or to p2p_2p2​. Write N(⋅)N(\cdot)N(⋅) for the demand process at ppp and Ni(⋅)N_i(\cdot)Ni​(⋅) for that at pip_ipi​.

  • Ji(n,t;s)=(p−pi)Emin⁡(n,N(s))+piEmin⁡(n,N(s)+Ni(t−s))J^i(n,t;s) = (p - p_i)E\min(n,N(s)) + p_iE\min(n, N(s) + N_i(t-s))Ji(n,t;s)=(p−pi​)Emin(n,N(s))+pi​Emin(n,N(s)+Ni​(t−s)) is the expected revenue of switching to pip_ipi​ after sss time units.
  • J(n,t;0)=max⁡{J1(n,t;0),J2(n,t;0)}J(n,t;0) = \max\{J^1(n,t;0), J^2(n,t;0)\}J(n,t;0)=max{J1(n,t;0),J2(n,t;0)} is the revenue of switching at once to the better alternative, and J(n,t;t)=pEmin⁡(n,N(t))J(n,t;t) = pE\min(n,N(t))J(n,t;t)=pEmin(n,N(t)) the revenue of never switching.
  • The optimal revenue is
J(n,t)=sup⁡τ∈TE[pmin⁡(n,N(τ))+J(n−N(τ),t−τ;0)],J(n,t) = \sup_{\tau \in \mathcal T} E\bigl[p\min(n,N(\tau)) + J(n - N(\tau), t - \tau; 0)\bigr],J(n,t)=τ∈Tsup​E[pmin(n,N(τ))+J(n−N(τ),t−τ;0)],

where T\mathcal TT is the set of stopping times of the history of NNN with 0≤τ≤t0 \le \tau \le t0≤τ≤t and N(τ)≤nN(\tau) \le nN(τ)≤n almost surely.

  • Gi(n,t)=r−ri−pi(λ−λi)P(Ni(t)≥n)G^i(n,t) = r - r_i - p_i(\lambda - \lambda_i)P(N_i(t) \ge n)Gi(n,t)=r−ri​−pi​(λ−λi​)P(Ni​(t)≥n).
  • Δi(n,t)=J(n,t;t)−Ji(n,t;0)\Delta^i(n,t) = J(n,t;t) - J^i(n,t;0)Δi(n,t)=J(n,t;t)−Ji(n,t;0) and Δ(n,t)=J1(n,t;0)−J2(n,t;0)\Delta(n,t) = J^1(n,t;0) - J^2(n,t;0)Δ(n,t)=J1(n,t;0)−J2(n,t;0), with first positive zeros tnit^i_ntni​ and tnt_ntn​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (pp. 1385–1386)

Under the paper's assumption tn1<tn<tn2t^1_n < t_n < t^2_ntn1​<tn​<tn2​ for every nnn, there are strictly increasing sequences (xn)(x_n)(xn​), (zn)(z_n)(zn​) with

xn<tn1<tn<tn2<znx_n < t^1_n < t_n < t^2_n < z_nxn​<tn1​<tn​<tn2​<zn​

such that J(n,t)=V(n,t)J(n,t) = V(n,t)J(n,t)=V(n,t), where V(n,t)=J(n,t;0)+F(n,t)V(n,t) = J(n,t;0) + F(n,t)V(n,t)=J(n,t;0)+F(n,t) for xn≤t≤znx_n \le t \le z_nxn​≤t≤zn​ and V(n,t)=J(n,t;0)V(n,t) = J(n,t;0)V(n,t)=J(n,t;0) otherwise. The excess F(n,⋅)F(n,\cdot)F(n,⋅) equals H1(n,⋅)H^1(n,\cdot)H1(n,⋅) on [xn,tn][x_n,t_n][xn​,tn​] and H2(n,⋅)H^2(n,\cdot)H2(n,⋅) on [tn,zn][t_n,z_n][tn​,zn​]. Each HiH^iHi solves

∂H∂t=−λH+Li(n,t),Li(n,t)=Gi(n,t)+λ[V(n−1,t)−Ji(n−1,t;0)],\frac{\partial H}{\partial t} = -\lambda H + L^i(n,t), \qquad L^i(n,t) = G^i(n,t) + \lambda\bigl[V(n-1,t) - J^i(n-1,t;0)\bigr],∂t∂H​=−λH+Li(n,t),Li(n,t)=Gi(n,t)+λ[V(n−1,t)−Ji(n−1,t;0)],

with H1(n,xn)=0H^1(n,x_n) = 0H1(n,xn​)=0 and H2(n,tn)=H1(n,tn)H^2(n,t_n) = H^1(n,t_n)H2(n,tn​)=H1(n,tn​). The thresholds are xn=inf⁡{t≥0:L1(n,t)=0}x_n = \inf\{t \ge 0 : L^1(n,t) = 0\}xn​=inf{t≥0:L1(n,t)=0} and zn=inf⁡{t≥tn:H2(n,t)≤0}z_n = \inf\{t \ge t_n : H^2(n,t) \le 0\}zn​=inf{t≥tn​:H2(n,t)≤0}.

Milestones

  1. (16), p. 1385: ∂Ji(n,t;0)/∂t=r−λ[Ji(n,t;0)−Ji(n−1,t;0)]−Gi(n,t)\partial J^i(n,t;0)/\partial t = r - \lambda[J^i(n,t;0) - J^i(n-1,t;0)] - G^i(n,t)∂Ji(n,t;0)/∂t=r−λ[Ji(n,t;0)−Ji(n−1,t;0)]−Gi(n,t).
  2. Lemma 2, p. 1379, in both cases: the zeros of G(n,⋅)G(n,\cdot)G(n,⋅) increase strictly in nnn, and G(n,⋅)G(n,\cdot)G(n,⋅) changes sign exactly once.
  3. Lemma 3, p. 1382, in both cases: J(n,t;t)−J(n,t;0)J(n,t;t) - J(n,t;0)J(n,t;t)−J(n,t;0) changes sign exactly once at a strictly increasing sequence tnt_ntn​, and is monotone beyond it.
  4. Lemma 1, p. 1378: a verification criterion identifying J(n,t)J(n,t)J(n,t) as the solution of a system of differential equations and inequalities.

Significance

Theorem 3 says that the two-directional problem has the same simple structure as the one-directional ones. With mmm units left and time-to-go uuu, the seller marks down at once when uuu falls below xmx_mxm​, marks up at once when uuu exceeds zmz_mzm​, and otherwise keeps the price. Because the thresholds increase with the stock, the policy reduces to a table of 2n2n2n numbers, which the paper computes for a housing example (Table 5). The theorem also quantifies the value of flexibility: in that example, allowing either direction adds about $1,500 over the markdown-only policy and about $7,000 over the markup-only policy.

Lemma 3 and the verification Lemma 1 are reusable beyond this mission. Lemma 3 is a sign-change property of differences of Poisson tail sums, of the kind that drives threshold results in revenue management. Lemma 1 is a sufficient condition for the value of an optimal stopping problem driven by a Poisson process. The paper's results are proved with pen and paper only; none of them has a machine-checked proof. The formalization adds a precise statement of Lemma 1, whose printed hypotheses are insufficient (see the scope section), and an explicit record of which threshold facts Theorem 3 depends on.

Difficulty

The value J(n,t)J(n,t)J(n,t) is the supremum over stopping times of a continuous-time process, and the obvious approach, dynamic programming over the stock, needs the value one stock level down. The thresholds at stock n+1n+1n+1 are defined through V(n,⋅)V(n,\cdot)V(n,⋅), so the structure must be propagated from one stock level to the next, and several properties have to propagate together. One must know that L1(n+1,⋅)L^1(n+1,\cdot)L1(n+1,⋅) again has a single sign change, which requires V(n,⋅)−J1(n,⋅;0)V(n,\cdot) - J^1(n,\cdot;0)V(n,⋅)−J1(n,⋅;0) to be increasing beyond xnx_nxn​. One must also know that H2(n+1,⋅)H^2(n+1,\cdot)H2(n+1,⋅) is positive up to tn+12t^2_{n+1}tn+12​ and eventually negative, so that zn+1z_{n+1}zn+1​ is finite, and that zn<zn+1z_n < z_{n+1}zn​<zn+1​. These facts concern three different price pairs at once: (p,p1)(p,p_1)(p,p1​), (p,p2)(p,p_2)(p,p2​) and (p1,p2)(p_1,p_2)(p1​,p2​). A direct comparison of VVV with the two one-directional value functions fails, because the optimal direction itself depends on the stock and the time-to-go. The verification step needs a pathwise fundamental theorem of calculus for the Poisson-driven process, which is where the regularity hypothesis on VVV matters.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Demand at ppp is the counting process of i.i.d. exponential interarrival times from the published definition QueueingFundamentals_Foundations_ArrivalProcess. The rate enters through the hypothesis IsExpInterarrivals P lam T, and Ni(t−s)N_i(t-s)Ni​(t−s) enters only through its law: the sum N(s)+Ni(t−s)N(s) + N_i(t-s)N(s)+Ni​(t−s) is written through its Poisson(λs+λi(t−s))(\lambda s + \lambda_i(t-s))(λs+λi​(t−s)) law. T\mathcal TT is the class of real-valued stopping times τ\tauτ of the σ-algebras generated by the counts N(u)N(u)N(u), 0≤u≤s0 \le u \le s0≤u≤s, with 0≤τ≤t0 \le \tau \le t0≤τ≤t and N(τ)≤nN(\tau) \le nN(τ)≤n almost surely.
  • Conventions. Time is time-to-go, t≥0t \ge 0t≥0; ODEs are imposed at every t>0t > 0t>0 through HasDerivAt. Threshold sequences are indexed from n=1n = 1n=1. Every infimum is a real sInf paired with the nonemptiness of its set. FFF, H1H^1H1, H2H^2H2, VVV and the thresholds are existentially quantified and tied together by the theorem's equations, so the existential determines the paper's objects. The page's assumption tn1<tn<tn2t^1_n < t_n < t^2_ntn1​<tn​<tn2​ is a hypothesis of the goal, as on the page.
  • Added hypotheses. Prices and intensities are positive, the paper's standing convention. Lemma 1 as printed is false. It is stated with the boundary condition V(n,0)=J(n,0;0)V(n,0) = J(n,0;0)V(n,0)=J(n,0;0), the zero-stock condition V(0,t)=0V(0,t) = 0V(0,t)=0, the obstacle condition V≥J(⋅;0)V \ge J(\cdot;0)V≥J(⋅;0), and local Lipschitz continuity of VVV in place of "continuous and almost everywhere differentiable". The page's proof uses all four. Lemma 2's printed "bounded" is corrected to "bounded away from zero", since yn→∞y_n \to \inftyyn​→∞.
  • No trivialization. No statement assumes the optimality identity, the verification conditions, the derivative identity (16), or any sign-change fact as a hypothesis. A goal that defined VVV and assumed J=VJ = VJ=V, or that left the thresholds unrelated to L1L^1L1 and H2H^2H2, would not be Theorem 3.
  • Infrastructure needed. Poisson tail calculus (differentiation of Emin⁡(n,N(t))E\min(n, N(t))Emin(n,N(t)) in ttt), variation-diminishing properties of the kernel e−λ(t−u)e^{-\lambda(t-u)}e−λ(t−u), linear first-order ODEs, and a martingale decomposition for Poisson counting processes evaluated at bounded stopping times. Contributions of any of these, or of proofs of the milestones, are welcome.

Selected references

  • Y. Feng and G. Gallego, Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares, Management Science 41(8):1371–1391, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.41.8.1371
  • G. Gallego and G. van Ryzin, Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons, Management Science 40(8):999–1020, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999
  • P. Brémaud, Point Processes and Queues: Martingale Dynamics, Springer, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-9477-8
  • S. Karlin, Total Positivity, Vol. 1, Stanford University Press, 1968.
  • G. Bitran and R. Caldentey, An Overview of Pricing Models for Revenue Management, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 5(3):203–229, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.5.3.203.16031
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OptimizationProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares 2: Markup Is Optimal Once Time-to-Go Exceeds an Increasing Threshold z_nResearch Paper

Why a promotional fare needs a switching rule

An airline may offer a low promotional fare while seats remain available, then raise the fare as departure approaches. The choice is dynamic: a sale changes both the number of seats left and the benefit of waiting. The same decision appears for hotel rooms and theater seats. Feng and Gallego study a policy with two fixed prices and at most one price change, while allowing the switching time to depend on actual sales rather than a calendar date chosen in advance. Their 1995 paper proves that this adaptive problem has an inventory-dependent threshold rule. This mission isolates the markup case, in which the second price is higher than the first.

The two-price restriction has a practical role. A seller may know the fare classes it can offer while still needing to decide when to close the promotional class. The result identifies a sequence of time thresholds that can be computed for the chosen price pair. It is therefore a structural claim about an optimal policy, not a choice of numerical prices or a claim that two prices optimize over every possible price menu.

Demand, inventory, and admissible decisions

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 items and t≥0t\ge0t≥0 units of time-to-go. At price pip_ipi​, sales requests follow a Poisson counting process NiN_iNi​ with rate λi\lambda_iλi​. Each request sells one item while stock remains. The paper assumes that demand falls as price rises and that the lower price has the higher revenue rate. Thus the markup case has

0<p1<p2,0<λ2<λ1,p2λ2<p1λ1.0<p_1<p_2,\qquad 0<\lambda_2<\lambda_1,\qquad p_2\lambda_2<p_1\lambda_1.0<p1​<p2​,0<λ2​<λ1​,p2​λ2​<p1​λ1​.

The salvage value at the end of the horizon is zero. A fixed switch at time s∈[0,t]s\in[0,t]s∈[0,t] charges p1p_1p1​ first and p2p_2p2​ afterwards. Its expected revenue, denoted J(n,t;s)J(n,t;s)J(n,t;s), is

J(n,t;s)=(p1−p2)∑j=1nPr⁡{N1(s)≥j}+p2∑j=1nPr⁡{N1(s)+N2(t−s)≥j}.J(n,t;s)=(p_1-p_2)\sum_{j=1}^n\Pr\{N_1(s)\ge j\} +p_2\sum_{j=1}^n\Pr\{N_1(s)+N_2(t-s)\ge j\}.J(n,t;s)=(p1​−p2​)j=1∑n​Pr{N1​(s)≥j}+p2​j=1∑n​Pr{N1​(s)+N2​(t−s)≥j}.

The two counts in the last term are independent, so their sum has Poisson mean λ1s+λ2(t−s)\lambda_1s+\lambda_2(t-s)λ1​s+λ2​(t−s). This is the expression in §3 of the paper. In particular, J(n,t;0)J(n,t;0)J(n,t;0) is the revenue from increasing the price immediately.

An admissible switching time τ\tauτ uses only the history of sales at p1p_1p1​; it lies between zero and ttt and cannot wait past stock exhaustion. The optimal value J(n,t)J(n,t)J(n,t) is the supremum of expected revenue over these stopping times. The stopping decision may react to sales before the change, but it cannot anticipate future requests. This distinction matters because a deterministic switch time generally has less information than an adaptive one.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 2 on pp. 1382–1383. Define the switching function

G(n,t)=p1λ1−p2λ2−p2(λ1−λ2)Pr⁡{N2(t)≥n},yn=inf⁡{u≥0:G(n,u)=0}.G(n,t)=p_1\lambda_1-p_2\lambda_2 -p_2(\lambda_1-\lambda_2)\Pr\{N_2(t)\ge n\}, \qquad y_n=\inf\{u\ge0:G(n,u)=0\}.G(n,t)=p1​λ1​−p2​λ2​−p2​(λ1​−λ2​)Pr{N2​(t)≥n},yn​=inf{u≥0:G(n,u)=0}.

There are thresholds xn,znx_n,z_nxn​,zn​ with yn≤xn<zny_n\le x_n<z_nyn​≤xn​<zn​, and (zn)n≥1(z_n)_{n\ge1}(zn​)n≥1​ is increasing. A continuation premium FFF gives the value

J(n,t)={J(n,t;0)+F(n,t),t<zn,J(n,t;0),t≥zn.J(n,t)=\begin{cases} J(n,t;0)+F(n,t),&t<z_n,\\ J(n,t;0),&t\ge z_n. \end{cases}J(n,t)={J(n,t;0)+F(n,t),J(n,t;0),​t<zn​,t≥zn​.​

For n≥1n\ge1n≥1, F(n,t)=H(n,t)F(n,t)=H(n,t)F(n,t)=H(n,t) below znz_nzn​ and is zero at or above it; F(0,t)=0F(0,t)=0F(0,t)=0. The function HHH satisfies H(n,0)=0H(n,0)=0H(n,0)=0 and the differential equation ∂tH(n,t)=−λ1H(n,t)+L(n,t)\partial_tH(n,t)=-\lambda_1H(n,t)+L(n,t)∂t​H(n,t)=−λ1​H(n,t)+L(n,t), where L(n,t)=G(n,t)+λ1F(n−1,t)L(n,t)=G(n,t)+\lambda_1F(n-1,t)L(n,t)=G(n,t)+λ1​F(n−1,t). The remaining thresholds are the first nonnegative zero of L(n,⋅)L(n,\cdot)L(n,⋅) and the first positive zero of H(n,⋅)H(n,\cdot)H(n,⋅):

xn=inf⁡{u≥0:L(n,u)=0},zn=inf⁡{u>0:H(n,u)=0}.x_n=\inf\{u\ge0:L(n,u)=0\},\qquad z_n=\inf\{u>0:H(n,u)=0\}.xn​=inf{u≥0:L(n,u)=0},zn​=inf{u>0:H(n,u)=0}.

The milestones reproduce equation (17), the markup half of Lemma 2, and Lemma 1. Together they identify the Poisson derivative identity, the sign change of GGG, and the verification criterion used to relate a candidate value to optimal stopping. The paper proves the mathematical result; the mission asks for machine-checked proofs of these formal statements.

What the result supplies

The threshold sequence tells a seller when increasing the price immediately is optimal, conditional on the stock still available. The value formula also gives the benefit of continuing at the promotional price when time-to-go lies below the threshold. The statement preserves the paper's weaker word “increasing” for znz_nzn​: it asserts monotonicity and does not require strict monotonicity of either sequence. The full theorem includes the recursive equations for FFF and HHH, so a proof of a threshold-shaped region alone would leave part of the source result unformalized.

Formalization would add a reusable optimal-stopping model built from a Poisson arrival process, a fixed-switch revenue function, and a verification lemma. The arrival process already has a published definition; the switching model and the theorem statements here are new drafts. The theorem is established in the 1995 article, while its Lean proof remains to be supplied.

Where the difficulty lies

The immediate-switch comparison G(n,t)G(n,t)G(n,t) has a single sign change, but the optimal decision also depends on revenue already earned and on the value of unsold stock after each possible sale. For n>1n>1n>1, the relevant forcing term is L(n,t)=G(n,t)+λ1F(n−1,t)L(n,t)=G(n,t)+\lambda_1F(n-1,t)L(n,t)=G(n,t)+λ1​F(n−1,t), so the sign of GGG alone does not locate the optimal switching threshold. A direct fixed-time comparison likewise does not establish optimality among stopping times that react to observed sales. These are the main obstacles the formal proof must address.

Formalization scope

The Lean model uses natural-number stock, nonnegative real time, positive real prices and rates, and an imported counting process built from independent exponential interarrival times. A rate is attached to each price. The history of the first process defines the stopping-time class; the second process enters through its Poisson law after a switch. The supremum ranges over admissible stopping times, and the payoff is bounded and measurable under the stated process law. The definition writes sales before switching as min⁡(n,N1(τ))\min(n,N_1(\tau))min(n,N1​(τ)), equal almost surely to N1(τ)N_1(\tau)N1​(τ) for admissible times. The probability-measure assumption is explicit, though the exponential interarrival law entails it.

Lean assigns a default value to an empty real infimum. The theorem explicitly asserts that each defining zero set for yny_nyn​, xnx_nxn​, and znz_nzn​ is nonempty; it also keeps u>0u>0u>0 in the definition of znz_nzn​, since H(n,0)=0H(n,0)=0H(n,0)=0. Continuity of H(n,⋅)H(n,\cdot)H(n,⋅) at zero connects its boundary value to its differential equation. Lemma 1 includes its missing initial, zero-stock, obstacle, and local-Lipschitz assumptions, all required by its printed proof. The paper's word “bounded” in Lemma 2 is retained in the milestone quotation but replaced by the positive lower bound it uses; yny_nyn​ is unbounded as stock grows. These choices are recorded for review in the moderation notes.

The goal derives optimality from the demand and price assumptions. It does not assume the verification conditions, the sign change, or the revenue identity as premises. Contributions to the Poisson tail calculus, stopping-time measurability and boundedness, threshold zero sets, and verification argument are within scope and can be reused in related finite-inventory pricing models.

Selected references

  • Y. Feng and G. Gallego, Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares, Management Science 41(8), 1995, pp. 1371–1391. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.41.8.1371.
6 thms3 active usersReviewed
CombinatoricsGraph Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

An Introduction to Timetabling 1: Every Class–Teacher Requirement Matrix Has a Timetable over Any p Days with Every Daily Load and Pair Count Between ⌊r/p⌋ and ⌈r/p⌉Research Paper

Motivation

School and university timetabling is one of the oldest applications of combinatorial optimization. In his invited review An introduction to timetabling (European Journal of Operational Research, 1985), D. de Werra opens with the class–teacher model: classes meet teachers for a prescribed number of one-period lectures, and the lectures must be placed into periods or days so that no class and no teacher is overloaded. Every richer timetabling model of the review (preassignments, unavailabilities, course scheduling) is built on top of this one, and the review keeps returning to its graph-theoretic reading as an edge-colouring problem in a bipartite multigraph.

The model comes in three levels of demand. The daily problem asks for a clash-free timetable. The weekly problem asks for an assignment of lectures to days within daily load limits. The balanced weekly problem asks, in addition, that the load of every class and every teacher be spread as evenly as possible over the week, and that the lectures of each class–teacher pair be spread evenly too. The last one is the practical requirement that a teacher should not have all four lectures with one class on Monday.

Timeline (as cited in the review).

  • 1916. D. König proves that a bipartite multigraph of maximum degree Δ\DeltaΔ can be edge-coloured with Δ\DeltaΔ colours. The review states it as Proposition 2.1, citing Berge's Graphes [1].
  • 1975. D. de Werra, "A few remarks on chromatic scheduling" (reference [37] of the review), gives the balanced version: for every ppp the edges of a bipartite multigraph can be ppp-coloured so that every node and every bundle of parallel edges is balanced. This is Proposition 2.3.
  • 1978. D. de Werra, "Some comments on a note about timetabling" (INFOR, reference [38]), gives the weekly version with daily load limits, Proposition 2.2.
  • 1985. The review collects the three results in matrix form as problems CT1, CT2 and CT3 and sketches a network-flow construction for CT3, citing Krarup [19].

Setting

There are mmm classes c1,…,cmc_1,\dots,c_mc1​,…,cm​ and nnn teachers t1,…,tnt_1,\dots,t_nt1​,…,tn​. The requirement matrix R=(rij)R=(r_{ij})R=(rij​) is an m×nm\times nm×n matrix of nonnegative integers: rijr_{ij}rij​ is the number of lectures class cic_ici​ must have with teacher tjt_jtj​. Write ri⋅=∑jrijr_{i\cdot}=\sum_j r_{ij}ri⋅​=∑j​rij​ for the total load of class cic_ici​ and r⋅j=∑irijr_{\cdot j}=\sum_i r_{ij}r⋅j​=∑i​rij​ for that of teacher tjt_jtj​. For nonnegative integers sss and p≥1p\ge1p≥1, ⌊s/p⌋\lfloor s/p\rfloor⌊s/p⌋ and ⌈s/p⌉\lceil s/p\rceil⌈s/p⌉ are the floor and ceiling of the rational s/ps/ps/p.

A schedule over ppp periods or days is an array x=(xijk)x=(x_{ijk})x=(xijk​) of nonnegative integers (i≤mi\le mi≤m, j≤nj\le nj≤n, k≤pk\le pk≤p) that places every lecture exactly once:

∑k=1pxijk=rijfor all i,j.(1)\sum_{k=1}^p x_{ijk}=r_{ij}\quad\text{for all } i,j. \tag{1}k=1∑p​xijk​=rij​for all i,j.(1)
  • CT1 asks in addition that xijk∈{0,1}x_{ijk}\in\{0,1\}xijk​∈{0,1} and that ∑jxijk≤1\sum_j x_{ijk}\le1∑j​xijk​≤1, ∑ixijk≤1\sum_i x_{ijk}\le1∑i​xijk​≤1: no class and no teacher has two lectures in one period.
  • CT2, given positive integers aia_iai​, bjb_jbj​, asks that ∑jxijk≤ai\sum_j x_{ijk}\le a_i∑j​xijk​≤ai​ and ∑ixijk≤bj\sum_i x_{ijk}\le b_j∑i​xijk​≤bj​ on every day kkk.
  • CT3 asks that on every day kkk
⌊ri⋅p⌋≤∑jxijk≤⌈ri⋅p⌉,⌊r⋅jp⌋≤∑ixijk≤⌈r⋅jp⌉,⌊rijp⌋≤xijk≤⌈rijp⌉.(8–10)\Big\lfloor \tfrac{r_{i\cdot}}{p}\Big\rfloor\le\sum_j x_{ijk}\le\Big\lceil \tfrac{r_{i\cdot}}{p}\Big\rceil,\quad \Big\lfloor \tfrac{r_{\cdot j}}{p}\Big\rfloor\le\sum_i x_{ijk}\le\Big\lceil \tfrac{r_{\cdot j}}{p}\Big\rceil,\quad \Big\lfloor \tfrac{r_{ij}}{p}\Big\rfloor\le x_{ijk}\le\Big\lceil \tfrac{r_{ij}}{p}\Big\rceil. \tag{8–10}⌊pri⋅​​⌋≤j∑​xijk​≤⌈pri⋅​​⌉,⌊pr⋅j​​⌋≤i∑​xijk​≤⌈pr⋅j​​⌉,⌊prij​​⌋≤xijk​≤⌈prij​​⌉.(8–10)

In the Lean development these are IsCT1 R p x, IsCT2 R p a b x and IsCT3 R p x, with the floor and ceiling written lo s p and hi s p and the totals rowSum R i, colSum R j.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2.3

∀ R∈Nm×n, ∀ p≥1:∃ x,  x solves CT3 for R over p days.\forall\,R\in\mathbb N^{m\times n},\ \forall\,p\ge1:\quad \exists\,x,\ \ x \text{ solves CT3 for } R \text{ over } p \text{ days}.∀R∈Nm×n, ∀p≥1:∃x,  x solves CT3 for R over p days.

The statement fixes no constant: it asserts that perfectly balanced weekly timetables always exist.

Milestones

  1. One balanced day (flow sketch, p. 153): for p≥1p\ge1p≥1 there is a matrix yyy satisfying the bounds (8), (9), (10) at once.
  2. The remaining days stay balanced (same sketch): if p≥2p\ge2p≥2 and ⌊s/p⌋≤y≤⌈s/p⌉\lfloor s/p\rfloor\le y\le\lceil s/p\rceil⌊s/p⌋≤y≤⌈s/p⌉, then ⌊s/p⌋≤⌊(s−y)/(p−1)⌋\lfloor s/p\rfloor\le\lfloor (s-y)/(p-1)\rfloor⌊s/p⌋≤⌊(s−y)/(p−1)⌋ and ⌈(s−y)/(p−1)⌉≤⌈s/p⌉\lceil (s-y)/(p-1)\rceil\le\lceil s/p\rceil⌈(s−y)/(p−1)⌉≤⌈s/p⌉.
  3. Proposition 2.1 (König): CT1 is solvable iff r⋅j≤pr_{\cdot j}\le pr⋅j​≤p and ri⋅≤pr_{i\cdot}\le pri⋅​≤p for all i,ji,ji,j.
  4. Proposition 2.2: CT2 is solvable iff r⋅j≤p bjr_{\cdot j}\le p\,b_jr⋅j​≤pbj​ and ri⋅≤p air_{i\cdot}\le p\,a_iri⋅​≤pai​.
  5. Minimum number of days: CT2 is solvable over ppp days iff p≥max⁡(max⁡j⌈r⋅j/bj⌉,max⁡i⌈ri⋅/ai⌉)p\ge\max\big(\max_j\lceil r_{\cdot j}/b_j\rceil,\max_i\lceil r_{i\cdot}/a_i\rceil\big)p≥max(maxj​⌈r⋅j​/bj​⌉,maxi​⌈ri⋅​/ai​⌉).
  6. Figure 1: the printed timetable for R=(124302)R=\begin{pmatrix}1&2&4\\3&0&2\end{pmatrix}R=(13​20​42​), p=3p=3p=3, solves CT3.

Significance

The result. Proposition 2.3 says that the balancing requirement costs nothing: whatever the requirement matrix, the week can be organised so that each class and each teacher has an essentially constant daily load and each class–teacher pair is spread evenly. It contains König's edge-colouring theorem (take ppp at least the maximum degree, so every daily load is at most one) and the weekly Proposition 2.2 as special cases. Combined with Proposition 2.1 applied to each day, it reduces weekly timetabling to independent daily problems, which is the decomposition the review recommends ("one may start by solving the weekly problem … and then solve separately the resulting daily problems", p. 154). In graph language it is the existence of equitable edge colourings of bipartite multigraphs, a standard tool in scheduling and in the theory of edge colourings.

Formalizing it. All results of this mission are classical and proved in the literature; none of them is formalized on the platform. Mathlib contains Hall's marriage theorem but not König's edge-colouring theorem for bipartite multigraphs, and not balanced or equitable colourings. A complete development gives a machine-checked König edge-colouring theorem in matrix form, the matrix-rounding step with simultaneous row, column and entry bounds, and the balanced-colouring theorem itself.

Difficulty

Each family of constraints alone is easy: spreading a single number rijr_{ij}rij​ evenly over ppp days, or a single row total, is a matter of division with remainder. The difficulty is that one array must satisfy (1), (8), (9) and (10) simultaneously, so that the per-entry roundings must add up to correct roundings of every row total and every column total on every day. Rounding each entry independently breaks the row and column constraints, and greedy day-by-day choices can leave a remainder that no longer fits the bounds. The crux is integrality: the rational average rij/pr_{ij}/prij​/p satisfies every bound on every day, but the problem asks for integers, and an integral one-day slice must round all entries, all row totals and all column totals consistently.

Formalization scope

Classes, teachers and days are Fin m, Fin n, Fin p; RRR and xxx are natural-number valued, which is the paper's "xijk≥0x_{ijk}\ge0xijk​≥0 integer". Constraint (4) of CT1 is written xijk≤1x_{ijk}\le1xijk​≤1. Floors and ceilings are Nat.floor and Nat.ceil of the rational quotient. In (8) and (9) they are applied to the row and column totals, never summed entrywise. The minimum number of days uses Finset.sup, whose empty value is 000, and is stated as an equivalence ("solvable over ppp days iff p≥pmin⁡p\ge p_{\min}p≥pmin​") rather than as an infimum.

Disclosed choices:

  • The goal and the one-day milestone assume p≥1p\ge1p≥1; the paper's "for any ppp" means any number of days, and for p=0p=0p=0 Lean's division returns 000.
  • The remaining-days milestone assumes p≥2p\ge2p≥2 so that p−1p-1p−1 days remain.
  • Propositions 2.1, 2.2 and the minimum-days statement hold for every ppp, including p=0p=0p=0, and assume nothing more than the page: ai,bja_i,b_jai​,bj​ positive.
  • The edge-colouring and network-flow readings of the paper are stated in prose only; the formal statements are in matrix form, which is how the propositions are stated.

The formalization does not admit a trivial reading: CT3 requires all four constraint families at once, (1) is an equality, and the sanity checks show both that the Figure 1 data satisfy CT3 and that CT1 is not satisfiable for R=(2)R=(2)R=(2) and p=1p=1p=1.

Useful infrastructure, reusable beyond this mission: integral flows with lower bounds, or total unimodularity of bipartite incidence matrices; König's edge-colouring theorem for bipartite multigraphs; floor and ceiling arithmetic for natural-number quotients. Proofs of any milestone, alternative proofs of the goal, and a sorry-free proof of the Figure 1 instance are all welcome.

Selected references

  • D. de Werra, An introduction to timetabling, European Journal of Operational Research 19 (1985) 151–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(85)90167-5
  • D. König, Über Graphen und ihre Anwendung auf Determinantentheorie und Mengenlehre, Mathematische Annalen 77 (1916) 453–465. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01456961
  • C. Berge, Graphes, Gauthier-Villars, Paris, 1983 (reference [1] of the review).
  • D. de Werra, A few remarks on chromatic scheduling, in B. Roy (ed.), Combinatorial Programming: Methods and Applications, Reidel, Dordrecht, 1975, 337–342.
  • D. de Werra, Some comments on a note about timetabling, INFOR 16 (1978) 90–92.
  • J. Krarup, Chromatic optimisation: Limitations, objectives, uses, references, European Journal of Operational Research 11 (1982) 1–19.
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Computational GeometryProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Concentration of Measure and Isoperimetric Inequalities in Product Spaces XII: The Euclidean Traveling Salesman Problem — P(|L_N − M| ≥ t) ≤ K e^{−t²/K} for N Uniform Points in the SquareTextbook

Motivation

The Euclidean traveling salesman problem asks for the shortest closed route through a finite set of points in the plane. Even when the points are placed independently and uniformly in a square, finding an individual shortest route is computationally difficult. A separate probabilistic question is whether the optimal length varies much from one random sample to another. In Chapter 11 of Talagrand's 1995 paper, this question motivates a concentration theorem for the tour length and for other geometric functionals with the same local regularity property.

The result is useful because a bound on fluctuations can be applied without computing the distribution of the optimal tour length. It separates the typical size of the length, which may need other geometric estimates, from the chance of a substantial deviation. The paper develops a more general concentration method for product spaces; the geometric chapter shows how its estimates can control an optimization problem whose response to changing one sample point depends strongly on the local configuration.

Setting

Let Q=[0,1]2Q=[0,1]^2Q=[0,1]2, and let X1,…,XNX_1,\ldots,X_NX1​,…,XN​ be independent points uniformly distributed in QQQ, with N≥1N\ge1N≥1. A configuration is the finite set F={X1,…,XN}F=\{X_1,\ldots,X_N\}F={X1​,…,XN​}; repeated sample locations are represented once in FFF. For any finite F⊆QF\subseteq QF⊆Q, write T(F)T(F)T(F) for the length of a shortest closed tour visiting every point of FFF. The tour length of the random sample is TN=T(F)T_N=T(F)TN​=T(F). The empty set and a singleton have tour length zero.

The main theorem concerns a functional LLL on all finite subsets of QQQ. A level k≥1k\ge1k≥1 dyadic square CCC has side 2−k2^{-k}2−k. Say that LLL has regularity constant K0>0K_0>0K0​>0 when, for every finite FFF and every finite G⊆CG\subseteq CG⊆C, if a point of FFF lies within Euclidean distance 2−k+22^{-k+2}2−k+2 of CCC, then

L(F)≤L(F∪G)≤L(F)+K0,2−k∣G∣.L(F)\le L(F\cup G)\le L(F)+K_0,2^{-k}\sqrt{|G|}.L(F)≤L(F∪G)≤L(F)+K0​,2−k∣G∣​.

The first inequality is monotonicity under adding points. The second limits the added cost when the new points lie in a small square near an existing point. Lemma 11.2.1 says that the shortest tour functional TTT has this property with a universal constant. In particular, the functional in the main theorem is not an arbitrary real function on samples: it must obey this condition for every admissible square and pair of finite sets.

A median MMM of L(F)L(F)L(F) is any real number for which both P(L(F)≤M)P(L(F)\le M)P(L(F)≤M) and P(L(F)≥M)P(L(F)\ge M)P(L(F)≥M) are at least one half. The theorem applies to every median. This convention avoids selecting one median when the distribution has more than one.

For the intermediate geometric estimates, k0k_0k0​ is the largest integer with 22k0≤N2^{2k_0}\le N22k0​≤N. Given a deviation parameter ttt, k1k_1k1​ is the integer selected by the criterion (11.1.9) after the paper sets the auxiliary Poisson intensity to N/8N/8N/8. The number mkm_kmk​ counts level kkk squares that contain at most N2−2k−6N2^{-2k-6}N2−2k−6 distinct sample points. An isolation weight α(x)\alpha(x)α(x) records the largest scale between k1k_1k1​ and k0k_0k0​ at which the square containing xxx contains at most N2−2k−7N2^{-2k-7}N2−2k−7 sample points, and equals 2−k02^{-k_0}2−k0​ if no such scale exists.

Formalization targets

Gaussian concentration for regular geometric functionals

For each fixed K0>0K_0>0K0​>0, there is a constant K>0K>0K>0, independent of NNN and LLL, such that every measurable LLL with the regularity property above satisfies, for all t≥0t\ge0t≥0,

P(∣L(F)−M∣≥t)≤Kexp⁡(−t2/K).P\bigl(|L(F)-M|\ge t\bigr)\le K\exp(-t^2/K).P(∣L(F)−M∣≥t)≤Kexp(−t2/K).

This is Theorem 11.2.2, the goal. Its constant may depend on the fixed regularity constant K0K_0K0​. Lemma 11.2.1 makes the tour length a direct instance. The milestone list also includes the quantitative sparse-square estimate of Proposition 11.1.4, the isolation-weight bound of Proposition 11.2.3, and the deterministic insertion estimate of Proposition 11.2.5. These retain the paper's specified thresholds and the dependency of their constants.

Significance

For TNT_NTN​, the result supplies a tail bound whose scale does not grow with the number of sample points. It says that the shortest tour length lies near a median with a Gaussian-form upper bound on the probability of a deviation. It does not identify the median or give an algorithm for finding the optimal tour. The abstract form also covers other finite-set functionals once their local regularity condition is established.

The paper proves these claims in ordinary mathematics. This mission asks for machine-checked proofs of the stated concentration, geometric occupancy, and tour-insertion results. The reusable outputs include a finite-set model of Euclidean tours and a precise interface for local regularity; the dyadic occupancy and isolation-weight definitions can support later sections on other geometric structures. No machine-checked proof of these specific chapter results is claimed here.

Difficulty

A naive bounded-differences estimate treats the effect of changing a sample point as if a single fixed worst-case insertion cost applied everywhere. That loses the paper's uniform fluctuation scale: a point can be unusually isolated, and its insertion cost can be much larger than the cost near a typical dense cluster. The central problem is to keep track of those irregular locations while retaining a bound uniform in NNN. The chapter's dyadic-square counts and isolation weights make this difficulty explicit in the statements.

Formalization scope

Points are pairs of real coordinates constrained to [0,1][0,1][0,1], represented as functions on Fin 2. Their distance is the Euclidean ℓ2\ell^2ℓ2 distance, defined explicitly; the default norm on a Lean function space would give a different metric. The random sample is a product of coordinatewise uniform probability measures. FFF is the set of distinct sampled locations, so ties have a defined value. Tour length is the minimum cyclic tour cost over the finite set, using the published generic metric-TSP tour model as its base.

Dyadic squares are closed in the local regularity condition. For the single square assigned to a point in the definition of α\alphaα, the implementation uses half-open cells, with the right endpoint 111 assigned to the final cell. This resolves only grid-line ties, which have probability zero under the stated sample law. Counts use distinct locations, as does the paper's set FFF. All probability inequalities are compared in the extended nonnegative reals. The event bound is written with ENNReal.ofReal; a negative formal lower bound represents the paper's trivial probability lower bound. The main theorem explicitly assumes measurability of the sample functional, following the paper's convention that all relevant functions are measurable. Theorems in Section 11.1 retain t≥1t\ge1t≥1 and t≤N/Kt\le\sqrt N/Kt≤N​/K; the main theorem covers every t≥0t\ge0t≥0.

The formalization must not replace the square's uniform law by an arbitrary distribution, use a supremum-norm tour, or place the existential constant after NNN or LLL. Contributions toward the goal may develop measure-theoretic facts about the product law, finite Euclidean tours, dyadic occupancy bounds, or the insertion estimate. Those interfaces have uses beyond this chapter.

Selected references

  • Michel Talagrand, Concentration of measure and isoperimetric inequalities in product spaces, Publications Mathématiques de l'IHÉS 81 (1995), 73–205. DOI: 10.1007/BF02699376.
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Bandit AlgorithmsProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Some Aspects of the Sequential Design of Experiments II: Staying on Heads and Switching on Tails Loses at Most 3 − 2√2 per Toss in the Long RunResearch Paper

Motivation

In 1952 Herbert Robbins asked how a statistician should draw a sample sequentially from two populations when the goal is the largest possible expected total, not a test or an estimate after the fact (Robbins 1952). This is the problem now called the two-armed bandit, and Robbins' paper is the usual starting point of the multi-armed bandit literature that underlies clinical-trial allocation, adaptive experimentation and online recommendation (Lattimore and Szepesvári 2020).

Robbins illustrated the problem with two coins. His first concrete rule, "stay on heads, switch on tails" (later known as win-stay, lose-shift or play the winner), uses only the outcome of the last toss, yet its long-run loss relative to an observer who knows the better coin is at most 3−23/2≈0.1723-2^{3/2}\approx 0.1723−23/2≈0.172 per toss, against 1/21/21/2 for a rule that ignores the outcomes. The same rule was studied again in clinical-trial design as "play the winner" (Zelen 1969).

Timeline. 1952: Robbins computes the operating characteristics of the stay-or-switch rule R1R_1R1​ and of the outcome-blind rule R0R_0R0​ for two coins, and shows that a greedy rule with sparse forced sampling attains max⁡(α,β)\max(\alpha,\beta)max(α,β) for arbitrary populations with finite means (Section 2). 1969: Zelen proposes the play-the-winner rule for clinical trials. 1985: Lai and Robbins give the logarithmic lower bound on regret and rules that attain it (Lai and Robbins 1985).

Setting

Two coins AAA and BBB have unknown head probabilities α\alphaα and β\betaβ, with 0≤α,β≤10\le\alpha,\beta\le10≤α,β≤1. A head pays \1,atailpaysnothing.If, a tail pays nothing. If ,atailpaysnothing.Ifx_i\in{0,1}isthepayoffoftheis the payoff of theisthepayoffofthei−thtoss,-th toss, −thtoss,S_n=x_1+\dots+x_nisthetotalreceivedafteris the total received afteristhetotalreceivedafterntosses.Intheformaldevelopmentthepairofcoinsisa∗∗two−armedstochasticbandit∗∗:armtosses. In the formal development the pair of coins is a **two-armed stochastic bandit**: armtosses.Intheformaldevelopmentthepairofcoinsisa∗∗two−armedstochasticbandit∗∗:arm0iscoinis coiniscoinA,withpayofflaw, with payoff law ,withpayofflaw(1-\alpha)\delta_0+\alpha\delta_1,andarm, and arm ,andarm1iscoinis coiniscoinB,withpayofflaw, with payoff law ,withpayofflaw(1-\beta)\delta_0+\beta\delta_1$.

A sampling rule chooses the coin for each toss from the outcomes of the earlier tosses. Two rules are studied.

  • Rule R1R_1R1​. For the first toss choose AAA or BBB at random. Then, for i=1,2,…i=1,2,\dotsi=1,2,…, if the iii-th toss results in heads, use the same coin for the (i+1)(i+1)(i+1)-th toss; if it results in tails, switch to the other coin.
  • Rule R0R_0R0​. Choose one of the two coins at random and then use it for every toss.

Write pip_ipi​ for the probability of heads on the iii-th toss under the rule in use, and E(Sn/n)\mathrm E(S_n/n)E(Sn​/n) for the expected average payoff of the first nnn tosses. The paper's two parameters are

γ=α+β2,δ=∣α−β∣2,\gamma=\frac{\alpha+\beta}{2},\qquad \delta=\frac{|\alpha-\beta|}{2},γ=2α+β​,δ=2∣α−β∣​,

so that max⁡(α,β)=γ+δ\max(\alpha,\beta)=\gamma+\deltamax(α,β)=γ+δ is the expected payoff per toss of an observer who knows the better coin. Following the paper, α\alphaα and β\betaβ are assumed not both 000 and not both 111; then ∣α+β−1∣<1|\alpha+\beta-1|<1∣α+β−1∣<1.

Formalization targets

Goal: the asymptotic loss of R1R_1R1​ and its maximum

Under R1R_1R1​,

lim⁡n→∞E ⁣(Snn)=γ+δ21−γ,L(A,B,R1)=lim⁡n→∞[max⁡(α,β)−E ⁣(Snn)]=δ[1−δ1−γ],\lim_{n\to\infty}\mathrm E\!\left(\frac{S_n}{n}\right)=\gamma+\frac{\delta^2}{1-\gamma}, \qquad L(A,B,R_1)=\lim_{n\to\infty}\left[\max(\alpha,\beta)-\mathrm E\!\left(\frac{S_n}{n}\right)\right]=\delta\left[1-\frac{\delta}{1-\gamma}\right],n→∞lim​E(nSn​​)=γ+1−γδ2​,L(A,B,R1​)=n→∞lim​[max(α,β)−E(nSn​​)]=δ[1−1−γδ​],

and for every admissible pair of coins

0≤L(A,B,R1)≤M1=3−23/2,0\le L(A,B,R_1)\le M_1=3-2^{3/2},0≤L(A,B,R1​)≤M1​=3−23/2,

with equality at α=0, β=2−21/2\alpha=0,\ \beta=2-2^{1/2}α=0, β=2−21/2 and at α=2−21/2, β=0\alpha=2-2^{1/2},\ \beta=0α=2−21/2, β=0 (Eqs. (6), (8) and the text after (8), p. 531).

Milestones, in the order of the argument

  1. Eq. (2): pi+1=(α+β−1)pi+(α+β−2αβ)p_{i+1}=(\alpha+\beta-1)p_i+(\alpha+\beta-2\alpha\beta)pi+1​=(α+β−1)pi​+(α+β−2αβ) for i≥1i\ge1i≥1.
  2. Eq. (3): the closed form pi=(α+β−1)i−1[p1−c]+cp_i=(\alpha+\beta-1)^{i-1}\bigl[p_1-c\bigr]+cpi​=(α+β−1)i−1[p1​−c]+c with c=(α+β−2αβ)/(2−(α+β))c=(\alpha+\beta-2\alpha\beta)/(2-(\alpha+\beta))c=(α+β−2αβ)/(2−(α+β)).
  3. Eqs. (4)–(5): lim⁡ipi=c=γ+δ2/(1−γ)\lim_i p_i=c=\gamma+\delta^2/(1-\gamma)limi​pi​=c=γ+δ2/(1−γ).
  4. Eq. (6): both E(Sn/n)\mathrm E(S_n/n)E(Sn​/n) and (p1+⋯+pn)/n(p_1+\dots+p_n)/n(p1​+⋯+pn​)/n have the stated limit.
  5. Eqs. (7)–(8) and M1M_1M1​: max⁡(α,β)=γ+δ\max(\alpha,\beta)=\gamma+\deltamax(α,β)=γ+δ and 0≤δ[1−δ/(1−γ)]≤3−23/20\le\delta[1-\delta/(1-\gamma)]\le 3-2^{3/2}0≤δ[1−δ/(1−γ)]≤3−23/2, with the two maximizers.
  6. Rule R0R_0R0​: L(A,B,R0)=δL(A,B,R_0)=\deltaL(A,B,R0​)=δ, whose maximum over the admissible pairs is M0=1/2M_0=1/2M0​=1/2, at (0,1)(0,1)(0,1) and (1,0)(1,0)(1,0).

Significance

The result. The goal quantifies how much an extremely simple adaptive rule recovers. A rule blind to outcomes loses up to half a dollar per toss; one bit of memory cuts the worst case to about 0.1720.1720.172. Robbins used this comparison to argue that the sequential design problem has nontrivial, computable answers, and to motivate the forced-sampling rule Rˉ\bar RRˉ of the same section, whose loss tends to 000. The closed forms (3)–(6) are the exact operating characteristics of the four-state Markov chain (coin,outcome)(\text{coin},\text{outcome})(coin,outcome) that R1R_1R1​ generates.

Formalizing it. The results are classical and elementary on paper, but none of them has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a verified chain from the canonical bandit measure to an explicit long-run payoff: the head probability of a fixed toss is computed from the law of the whole trajectory, the recursion is derived from the rule's kernels, and the Cesàro limit closes the argument. The same pattern applies to any finite-memory bandit rule, and the coin bandit and the two rules are reusable test cases for the platform's bandit library. No platform theorem states R1R_1R1​, its recursion or its loss; other two-state models on the platform (a Markov-renewal gain rate, an MDP gadget) are different objects.

Difficulty

The recursion (2) is a statement about the trajectory law, not about a Markov chain given in advance: the chain (coini,xi)(\text{coin}_i,x_i)(coini​,xi​) has to be extracted from the Ionescu–Tulcea construction of the bandit measure, where the coin of toss i+1i+1i+1 is a deterministic function of toss iii and the payoff is drawn from the chosen coin's law. The head probability alone is not a Markov chain: pi+1p_{i+1}pi+1​ depends on the joint law of coin and outcome at toss iii, so a naive one-step argument on pip_ipi​ does not apply, and the affine form of (2) is a property of this particular rule. The maximization in (8) is over a two-dimensional region whose maximizers lie on the boundary α=0\alpha=0α=0 or β=0\beta=0β=0, and the excluded corners are exactly where the formula δ/(1−γ)\delta/(1-\gamma)δ/(1−γ) breaks down.

Formalization scope

The bandit is the published BanditAlgorithm.StochasticBandit 2; the rules are policies of the published type BanditPolicy 2, and probabilities and expectations are taken under the published infinite-horizon measure banditTrajMeasure, whose coordinate ttt is toss t+1t+1t+1. Head probabilities are elements of unitInterval. The conventions committed to are:

  • "At random" for the first coin of R1R_1R1​ and R0R_0R0​ is the fair choice, probability 1/21/21/2 each.
  • Heads is the payoff value 111; pip_ipi​ is defined for i≥1i\ge1i≥1 and every statement quantifies over i≥1i\ge1i≥1 or n≥1n\ge1n≥1.
  • "Not both 000 or both 111" is the hypothesis ¬(α=0∧β=0)∧¬(α=1∧β=1)\neg(\alpha=0\wedge\beta=0)\wedge\neg(\alpha=1\wedge\beta=1)¬(α=0∧β=0)∧¬(α=1∧β=1), never 0<α0<\alpha0<α or α<1\alpha<1α<1, which would remove the maximizer α=0\alpha=0α=0. Robbins states it immediately before Eq. (2), and the Lean carries it through the probability and loss results.
  • The paper's "lim⁡E(Sn/n)=lim⁡(p1+⋯+pn)/n\lim E(S_n/n)=\lim (p_1+\dots+p_n)/nlimE(Sn​/n)=lim(p1​+⋯+pn​)/n" is stated as convergence of both sequences to the same value.
  • "L(A,B,R1)L(A,B,R_1)L(A,B,R1​) has its maximum value M1M_1M1​ when …" is read as: L≤M1L\le M_1L≤M1​ for every admissible (α,β)(\alpha,\beta)(α,β), and L=M1L=M_1L=M1​ at both named points ("or vice versa").
  • 23/22^{3/2}23/2 is written 222\sqrt222​. The numerical asides (≈.172\approx .172≈.172, ≈.586\approx .586≈.586, "17.2 cents") are not formalized, nor is the "tossing the two coins alternately" variant of R0R_0R0​.

The asymptotic loss is stated as the limit of max⁡(α,β)−E(Sn/n)\max(\alpha,\beta)-\mathrm E(S_n/n)max(α,β)−E(Sn​/n); defining LLL by its closed form would make the goal a tautology. Likewise, the head probabilities are computed from the law of the rule on the coins: positing a sequence that satisfies (2) would drop the probabilistic content.

A complete development needs: the one-dimensional marginals of banditTrajMeasure (the law of coordinate t+1t+1t+1 given the prefix), the joint law of (coin, payoff) at each toss, linearity of expectation for bounded payoffs, a Cesàro-mean lemma, and a short two-variable optimization. The trajectory-marginal lemmas are reusable for every bandit mission on the platform; contributions that prove them in general are welcome.

Selected references

  • H. Robbins, Some aspects of the sequential design of experiments, Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 58(5) (1952), 527–535. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9904-1952-09620-8
  • M. Zelen, Play the winner rule and the controlled clinical trial, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 64 (1969), 131–146. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1969.10500959
  • T. L. Lai and H. Robbins, Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules, Adv. Appl. Math. 6 (1985), 4–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/0196-8858(85)90002-8
  • T. Lattimore and C. Szepesvári, Bandit Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108571401
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Complexity TheoryTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems 5: KNAPSACK Reduces to Two-Machine Flow Shop Makespan with a Release Date or Tree Precedence and to Two- and Three-Machine Job Shop MakespanResearch Paper

Motivation

In 1975 P. Brucker, J. K. Lenstra and A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan classified a large part of deterministic machine scheduling by computational complexity, using the then new theory of NP-completeness of Cook and Karp. Their report, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems (Mathematisch Centrum, Amsterdam, 1975; published in Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 1977), gives for many problems either a polynomial algorithm or a polynomial reduction from a known NP-complete problem. It drew the boundary between easy and hard scheduling problems that later surveys and the standard three-field classification build on.

This mission covers four reductions of the report's Theorem 4 that concern shops with several machines. A flow shop processes every job on machines M1,…,MmM_1, \dots, M_mM1​,…,Mm​ in this order; a job shop lets each job follow its own route. For two machines and no further constraints, the flow shop is solved by Johnson's rule (Johnson, 1954) and the job shop with at most two operations per job by Jackson's extension of it (1956). The four reductions show that these positive results stop exactly where one more feature is added: one job with a nonzero release date, tree-shaped precedence constraints, a third operation per job, or a third machine.

Setting

A general shop instance has jobs J1,…,JnJ_1,\dots,J_nJ1​,…,Jn​ and machines M1,…,MmM_1,\dots,M_mM1​,…,Mm​. Job JjJ_jJj​ consists of mjm_jmj​ operations; its rrr-th operation runs on machine μjr\mu_{jr}μjr​ for pjr∈Np_{jr}\in\mathbb Npjr​∈N time units, and the tuple μj\mu_jμj​ is the job's machine order (a machine may occur more than once). Each job has a release date rjr_jrj​, and some pairs of jobs carry a precedence constraint Jj<JkJ_j<J_kJj​<Jk​.

A schedule gives every operation a start time. It is feasible if no operation of JjJ_jJj​ starts before rjr_jrj​; the operations of each job run in the order μj\mu_jμj​, each after the previous one completes; two operations on the same machine never overlap; and Jj<JkJ_j<J_kJj​<Jk​ implies Cj≤BkC_j\le B_kCj​≤Bk​, where CjC_jCj​ is the completion time of JjJ_jJj​ and BkB_kBk​ the starting time of JkJ_kJk​. The makespan is Cmax⁡=max⁡jCjC_{\max}=\max_j C_jCmax​=maxj​Cj​.

In the report's notation n∣m∣ℓ,λ∣Cmax⁡n|m|\ell,\lambda|C_{\max}n∣m∣ℓ,λ∣Cmax​, ℓ=F\ell=Fℓ=F means a flow shop and ℓ=G\ell=Gℓ=G a job shop; λ\lambdaλ may contain rn≥0r_n\ge 0rn​≥0 (only the last job has a release date), tree (the precedence graph is a branching: no directed cycle, and either every indegree or every outdegree is at most one) and mj≤m∗m_j\le m_*mj​≤m∗​ (at most m∗m_*m∗​ operations per job). The recognition version of a problem asks, for an instance and a number yyy, whether a feasible schedule with Cmax⁡≤yC_{\max}\le yCmax​≤y exists.

KNAPSACK asks, for positive integers a1,…,ata_1,\dots,a_ta1​,…,at​ and bbb, whether some S⊆T={1,…,t}S\subseteq T=\{1,\dots,t\}S⊆T={1,…,t} has ∑j∈Saj=b\sum_{j\in S}a_j=b∑j∈S​aj​=b. A problem P′P'P′ is reducible to PPP (P′∝PP'\propto PP′∝P) if every instance of P′P'P′ can be transformed in polynomial time into an instance of PPP with the same answer.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4(g)–(j)

KNAPSACK ∝ n∣2∣F,rn≥0∣Cmax⁡,n∣2∣F,tree∣Cmax⁡,n∣2∣G,mj≤3∣Cmax⁡,n∣3∣G,mj≤2∣Cmax⁡.\mathrm{KNAPSACK}\ \propto\ n|2|F,r_n{\ge}0|C_{\max},\quad n|2|F,\mathit{tree}|C_{\max},\quad n|2|G,m_j{\le}3|C_{\max},\quad n|3|G,m_j{\le}2|C_{\max}.KNAPSACK ∝ n∣2∣F,rn​≥0∣Cmax​,n∣2∣F,tree∣Cmax​,n∣2∣G,mj​≤3∣Cmax​,n∣3∣G,mj​≤2∣Cmax​.

Each part is a polynomial-time many-one reduction between languages of binary strings. The other six parts of Theorem 4 (single-machine problems) belong to other missions of this series.

Milestones: the four equivalences

For positive a1,…,at,ba_1,\dots,a_t,ba1​,…,at​,b with 0<b<A=∑j∈Taj0<b<A=\sum_{j\in T}a_j0<b<A=∑j∈T​aj​, and for each of the paper's four constructions with its threshold yyy,

∃ S⊆T: ∑j∈Saj=b  ⟺  the constructed instance has a feasible schedule with Cmax⁡≤y,\exists\,S\subseteq T:\ \sum_{j\in S}a_j=b\iff\text{the constructed instance has a feasible schedule with } C_{\max}\le y,∃S⊆T: j∈S∑​aj​=b⟺the constructed instance has a feasible schedule with Cmax​≤y,

with y=A+1y=A+1y=A+1 for (i), y=2Ay=2Ay=2A for (j), y=t(A+1)y=t(A+1)y=t(A+1) for (g) and y=t(A+1)+1y=t(A+1)+1y=t(A+1)+1 for (h). The milestones are stated directly about the printed constructions, in the order (i), (j), (g), (h) of the report.

Significance

With the NP-completeness of KNAPSACK (Karp, 1972), the goal makes the four problems NP-complete. As the report notes, (i) and (j) together with the elementary reductions of its Theorem 1 make the general job shop n∣m∣G∣Cmax⁡n|m|G|C_{\max}n∣m∣G∣Cmax​ NP-complete for every fixed m≥2m\ge 2m≥2. Parts (g) and (h) show that Johnson's two-machine algorithm admits neither release dates nor precedence constraints in general. Because KNAPSACK can be solved in pseudo-polynomial time, these results establish NP-hardness in the ordinary sense only; strong NP-hardness of some of these problems came later (Garey, Johnson and Sethi, 1976, for the three-machine flow shop).

The results are proved in the report; no machine-checked proof of any of them is known to exist. A formalization adds explicit constructions and complete equivalence proofs where the report is brief: in (h) it proves one inequality and states that the rest "is analogous to that of reduction (g)", and the forward directions are given by figures. It also produces a reusable formal model of general shops with integral start times, release dates, precedence and repeated machines.

Difficulty

Polynomial-time computability of the constructions is routine in principle but laborious in Cook's Turing-machine model, which is the setting of the goal: binary arithmetic for AAA, tajt a_jtaj​ and t(A−b)t(A-b)t(A−b), and parsing of the KNAPSACK code.

The mathematical difficulty is the reverse direction of each equivalence. The report's arguments are phrased in terms of "a processing order on M1M_1M1​" and treat the jobs before and after an extra job as two blocks. A formal proof must derive such an order from arbitrary start times and must handle every interleaving, including idle time and the case where the extra job's operations do not fit the printed pattern. In (j) the printed bound for the case c<0c<0c<0 contains a minimum of two quantities whose justification is left to the reader. In (h) the printed case uses taj≥tt a_j\ge ttaj​≥t, so the positivity of the data matters, and the remaining cases are only said to be analogous to (g).

Formalization scope

Jobs are Fin n and machines Fin m, both 0-based. A job's operations form a list of (machine, processing time) pairs, so machine orders may repeat machines, as μn=(M2,M1,M2)\mu_n=(M_2,M_1,M_2)μn​=(M2​,M1​,M2​) in (i) does. Start times are natural numbers. The report computes schedules from processing orders on integer data, the makespan is a regular criterion, and release dates and precedence survive shifting operations left, so integral start times lose no value. Cmax⁡≤yC_{\max}\le yCmax​≤y is stated as Cj≤yC_j\le yCj​≤y for every jjj; no maximum over an empty set is formed. Precedence Jj<JkJ_j<J_kJj​<Jk​ is between jobs: every operation of JkJ_kJk​ starts no earlier than CjC_jCj​. A branching is an acyclic precedence graph in which every indegree is at most one or every outdegree is at most one; the report's "either … or" is read for the whole graph. Job-shop classes require at least one operation per job. A flow-shop job has exactly the operations (M1,M2)(M_1,M_2)(M1​,M2​), with times allowed to be zero.

The following readings of the report are made explicit. "Reducible" is Karp reducibility, CookPvsNP.PolyReducible from the published definitions CookPvsNP_defs. The languages are over the four-letter alphabet with binary numbers of the published definition ProjSchedTW.Complexity.Encoding. Its subsetSumLang allows zero sizes, while the report's KNAPSACK is over positive integers, so KNAPSACK is defined locally with positivity in the language. "We may assume that 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A" becomes a hypothesis of every equivalence; the goal's reduction must still handle the other inputs. The printed "value Cmax⁡=yC_{\max}=yCmax​=y" of the forward directions is read as "≤y\le y≤y", as Section 2 defines the recognition version. The remark that (h) is analogous to (g) becomes the full equivalence for (h). An instance outside the problem's class is not in its language. NP-membership is not part of the goal.

The formal two-stage flow-shop models of Johnson's paper (JohnsonFlowShop.TwoStage.IsFeasible) and the job-shop model of Jansen, Solis-Oba and Sviridenko (JobShopLTAS.Core.Instance) use real start times and have neither release dates nor precedence. They were consulted, but the model here is local.

Ruled out as trivializing: a goal without the polynomial-time condition (the bare equivalence of yes-instances), a target language that accepts instances outside the class, and equivalences about some instance rather than the printed construction.

Contributions are welcome on any milestone, on a general lemma that turns a feasible schedule into a processing order per machine, and on polynomial-time computability of list arithmetic in the Turing-machine model, which every reduction of this series needs.

Selected references

  • P. Brucker, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems, Mathematisch Centrum Report BW 43/75, Amsterdam, 1975; Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1 (1977) 343–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X
  • R. M. Karp, Reducibility among combinatorial problems, in Complexity of Computer Computations, Plenum, 1972, 85–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9
  • S. M. Johnson, Optimal two- and three-stage production schedules with setup times included, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 1 (1954) 61–68. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800010110
  • J. R. Jackson, An extension of Johnson's results on job lot scheduling, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 3 (1956) 201–203. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800030307
  • M. R. Garey, D. S. Johnson, R. Sethi, The complexity of flowshop and jobshop scheduling, Mathematics of Operations Research 1 (1976) 117–129. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1.2.117
  • S. A. Cook, The P versus NP problem, Clay Mathematics Institute. https://www.claymath.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/pvsnp.pdf
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Complexity TheoryTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems 4: KNAPSACK Reduces to Single-Machine Total Completion Time with One Release DateResearch Paper

Motivation

Minimizing the total completion time ∑jCj\sum_j C_j∑j​Cj​ of jobs on a single machine is one of the oldest problems in scheduling theory. When every job is available at time 000, processing the jobs in order of nondecreasing processing time is optimal (the shortest-processing-time rule), so the problem is solved by sorting. Release dates, times before which a job may not start, change the picture. In their 1975 report Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems (Mathematisch Centrum Report BW 43/75; journal version in Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 1977), Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan used the then-new theory of NP-completeness (Cook 1971, Karp 1972) to map which classical scheduling problems are polynomially solvable and which are NP-complete. Theorem 4 of that report lists ten problems to which KNAPSACK reduces. Part (a) shows that total completion time on one machine is already hard when a single job has a nonzero release date and all weights are equal.

The result is a sharp boundary. With all release dates zero the problem is easy; with one nonzero release date it is NP-complete. It is a standard entry in the complexity classification of single-machine problems that later surveys (Lawler, Lenstra, Rinnooy Kan and Shmoys, 1993) and the scheduling-complexity databases build on.

Setting

An instance of KNAPSACK consists of positive integers a1,…,ata_1,\dots,a_ta1​,…,at​ and bbb; with T={1,…,t}T=\{1,\dots,t\}T={1,…,t}, it has a solution if ∑j∈Saj=b\sum_{j\in S}a_j=b∑j∈S​aj​=b for some S⊆TS\subseteq TS⊆T.

In the scheduling problem there are nnn jobs J1,…,JnJ_1,\dots,J_nJ1​,…,Jn​ and one machine. Job JjJ_jJj​ has a processing time pjp_jpj​, a weight wjw_jwj​ and a release date rjr_jrj​, all nonnegative integers. A schedule assigns each job a starting time Bj≥rjB_j\ge r_jBj​≥rj​; the job completes at Cj=Bj+pjC_j=B_j+p_jCj​=Bj​+pj​, and no two jobs are processed at the same time. The problem written n∣1∣rn≥0,wj=1∣∑wjCjn|1|r_n\ge0,w_j=1|\sum w_jC_jn∣1∣rn​≥0,wj​=1∣∑wj​Cj​ in the paper's notation is the class of instances in which every weight is 111 and every job except the last one, JnJ_nJn​, has release date 000. Its recognition version asks, given such an instance and an integer yyy, whether some schedule has ∑jCj≤y\sum_jC_j\le y∑j​Cj​≤y.

A problem P′P'P′ is reducible to PPP (written P′∝PP'\propto PP′∝P) when every instance of P′P'P′ can be transformed in polynomial time into an instance of PPP with the same answer. The paper's construction maps a1,…,at,ba_1,\dots,a_t,ba1​,…,at​,b (with 0<b<A=∑jaj0<b<A=\sum_ja_j0<b<A=∑j​aj​ and a∗=max⁡jaja_*=\max_ja_ja∗​=maxj​aj​) to an instance with n=t+t′+u+1n=t+t'+u+1n=t+t′+u+1 jobs in four groups TTT, T′T'T′, UUU and {Jn}\{J_n\}{Jn​}, with processing times τ+aj\tau+a_jτ+aj​, τ\tauτ, υ\upsilonυ and 111, the release date rn=tτ+br_n=t\tau+brn​=tτ+b, and threshold y=υ+12u(u+1)υy=\upsilon+\tfrac12u(u+1)\upsilony=υ+21​u(u+1)υ, where t′t't′, τ\tauτ, uuu, σ\sigmaσ, υ\upsilonυ are explicit polynomials in ttt, a∗a_*a∗​, bbb and AAA.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4(a)

KNAPSACK ∝ n∣1∣rn≥0,wj=1∣∑wjCj,\text{KNAPSACK}\ \propto\ n|1|r_n\ge0,w_j=1|\textstyle\sum w_jC_j ,KNAPSACK ∝ n∣1∣rn​≥0,wj​=1∣∑wj​Cj​,

stated as CookPvsNP.PolyReducible knapsackLang sumCLangMult: a polynomial-time computable map on binary strings that sends codes of solvable KNAPSACK instances, and only those, to codes of yes-instances of the scheduling problem.

Milestones

  1. Forward direction (p. 22). If ∑j∈Saj=b\sum_{j\in S}a_j=b∑j∈S​aj​=b, the processing order (S′,S,Jn,T′−S′,T−S,U)(S',S,J_n,T'-S',T-S,U)(S′,S,Jn​,T′−S′,T−S,U), with S′={t+j∣j∈T−S}S'=\{t+j\mid j\in T-S\}S′={t+j∣j∈T−S}, gives a feasible schedule with ∑j∉UCj≤u\sum_{j\notin U}C_j\le u∑j∈/U​Cj​≤u, ∑j∈UCj=uσ+12u(u+1)υ\sum_{j\in U}C_j=u\sigma+\tfrac12u(u+1)\upsilon∑j∈U​Cj​=uσ+21​u(u+1)υ and ∑jCj≤y\sum_jC_j\le y∑j​Cj​≤y.
  2. Claim (A). In every schedule with ∑jCj≤y\sum_jC_j\le y∑j​Cj​≤y, all jobs outside UUU precede all jobs of UUU.
  3. Claim (B). In every such schedule some job of UUU starts by time σ\sigmaσ; consequently ∑j∉UCj≤u\sum_{j\notin U}C_j\le u∑j∈/U​Cj​≤u.
  4. Claim (C). Exactly ttt jobs precede JnJ_nJn​.
  5. Claim (D). Bn=tτ+bB_n=t\tau+bBn​=tτ+b.
  6. Equivalence (pp. 22–23). For 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A, KNAPSACK has a solution iff the constructed instance has a schedule with ∑jCj≤y\sum_jC_j\le y∑j​Cj​≤y.

Significance

Together with the NP-completeness of KNAPSACK (Theorem 2(b), quoted from Karp), Theorem 4(a) shows that n∣1∣rn≥0,wj=1∣∑wjCjn|1|r_n\ge0,w_j=1|\sum w_jC_jn∣1∣rn​≥0,wj​=1∣∑wj​Cj​ is NP-complete; with general release dates the problem 1∣rj∣∑Cj1|r_j|\sum C_j1∣rj​∣∑Cj​ is then NP-hard as well. The hardness here is in the ordinary sense: the construction is polynomial only in the multiplicity encoding (see below), and the reduction is from KNAPSACK, which has a pseudo-polynomial algorithm.

The result is proved on paper. A formalization adds a machine-checked complexity reduction whose correctness proof is a sequence of delicate counting estimates with large explicit constants; the paper closes the converse with "as is easily seen", and the forward computation and claims (C), (D) contain displayed identities that a formal proof must verify exactly. The definitions (single-machine schedules with release dates, the schedule of a processing order, the multiplicity encoding) are reusable for the other single-machine reductions of the same paper and for later classification results.

Difficulty

The forward direction is a direct computation. The converse is where the difficulty lies: a schedule with ∑jCj≤y\sum_jC_j\le y∑j​Cj​≤y is arbitrary, may contain idle time, and may interleave the groups. Such a schedule must be shown to be rigid (claims (A)–(D)), and the claims are statements about every schedule, not about a convenient one. Each step compares sums of the form ∑jτ\sum jτ∑jτ against uuu with an additive slack smaller than τ\tauτ, so the constants must be tracked exactly; an estimate that loses a single τ\tauτ breaks the argument. Extracting the knapsack subset at the end requires recognizing which ttt jobs fill [0,tτ+b)[0,t\tau+b)[0,tτ+b) and why their extra lengths aja_jaj​ sum to exactly bbb.

For the goal, the polynomiality of the reduction is not automatic: the constructed instance has t′=t(t+1)a∗t'=t(t+1)a_*t′=t(t+1)a∗​ and uuu jobs, which is exponential in the length of the binary KNAPSACK input. The paper's Remark (p. 23) resolves this by encoding groups of identical jobs by their cardinality and one copy of their data, and the formal statement adopts that encoding.

Formalization scope

  • Reducibility is CookPvsNP.PolyReducible from the published definition CookPvsNP_defs (polynomial-time many-one reducibility in Cook's machine model). Numbers are coded in binary over the four-letter alphabet BSym with encNats from the published definition ProjSchedTW.Complexity.Encoding (Neumann, Schwindt and Zimmermann's formalization); its own subsetSumLang allows zero entries, so KNAPSACK over positive integers is defined here.
  • Jobs are indexed by Fin n, 0-based; the groups TTT, T′T'T′, UUU and JnJ_nJn​ are index ranges. Starting times are natural numbers: the paper computes them from processing orders on integer data (Section 3), and claim (D) is false for real starting times.
  • A schedule is feasible when every job starts at or after its release date and the occupied half-open intervals [Bj,Bj+pj)[B_j,B_j+p_j)[Bj​,Bj​+pj​) are pairwise disjoint; idle time is allowed.
  • "Precedes" in claims (A) and (C) means "starts earlier on the machine"; there are no precedence constraints.
  • The claims are stated with exactly the hypotheses the proof uses: the schedule is feasible and ∑jCj≤y\sum_jC_j\le y∑j​Cj​≤y, for positive aja_jaj​, bbb with 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A (the paper's "We may assume that 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A", p. 16).
  • The halves in uuu and yyy are exact natural-number divisions, since the products are even. The letter uuu is both the size of UUU and the bound ∑j∉UCj≤u\sum_{j\notin U}C_j\le u∑j∈/U​Cj​≤u, as in the paper.
  • The goal's target language uses the multiplicity encoding: a list of job types (count, processing time, weight, release date) and yyy; the class conditions (unit weights, release date 000 for every job but the last) are checked on the expanded job list. A one-entry-per-job encoding would make the paper's construction non-polynomial, and the statement would not be the paper's.
  • Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: the goal includes polynomial-time computability (not just an equivalence of yes-instances), the KNAPSACK language requires positive entries as in the paper, and the target language requires class membership, so mapping to an instance outside the class is not a way out.
  • Welcome contributions: the arithmetic identities of the construction, the schedule of a processing order and its feasibility, the counting lemmas behind (C) and (D), and polynomial-time computability of the multiplicity-encoded construction in the CookPvsNP model.

Selected references

  • P. Brucker, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems, Mathematisch Centrum Report BW 43/75, Amsterdam, 1975; Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1 (1977) 343–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X
  • S. A. Cook, The complexity of theorem-proving procedures, Proc. 3rd ACM STOC, 1971, 151–158. https://doi.org/10.1145/800157.805047
  • R. M. Karp, Reducibility among combinatorial problems, in Complexity of Computer Computations, Plenum, 1972, 85–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9
  • E. L. Lawler, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, D. B. Shmoys, Sequencing and scheduling: algorithms and complexity, Handbooks in OR & MS 4, 1993, 445–522. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(05)80189-6
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Markov ChainProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Processes Occurring in the Theory of Queues and their Analysis by the Method of the Imbedded Markov Chain: In GI/M/s, a Positive Wait Is Exponential and a Positive Queue GeometricResearch Paper

Motivation

A many-server queue in which customers arrive at the epochs of a renewal process and are served for exponential times is the basic model of a telephone exchange, a call centre, or a bank of identical machines. Its continuous-time queue-length process is not Markovian unless the arrivals are Poisson, so Erlang's birth–death formulas for M/M/s do not apply. In 1953 D. G. Kendall showed how to analyse such systems by the method of the imbedded Markov chain: observe the system only at the arrival epochs, where the number of customers present does form a Markov chain, and read the equilibrium behaviour off that chain (Kendall 1953).

Timeline:

  • Erlang (1908–1929) treated M/M/s, where the queue length is itself Markovian.
  • Kendall (1951) treated M/G/1 by a chain imbedded at departure epochs.
  • W. L. Smith (Kendall's ref. [19]) observed that for a single server, under restrictions on the input law, exponential service gives an exponential waiting time apart from an atom at zero.
  • Kendall (1953), this paper, treated GI/M/s for every input law and every number of servers sss, and showed that Smith's restrictions are unnecessary.
  • Foster (1953) gave the criterion for ergodicity of a denumerable chain through a summable invariant vector, which is the step Kendall's argument relies on.

Setting

Customers arrive with independent inter-arrival times of law AAA on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) and mean aaa, 0<a<∞0<a<\infty0<a<∞. There are s≥1s\ge 1s≥1 servers and a single queue served first come, first served. Service times are independent of one another and of the input, negative-exponential with mean bbb, 0<b<∞0<b<\infty0<b<∞. The relative traffic intensity is ρ=b/(sa)\rho=b/(sa)ρ=b/(sa).

The state of the imbedded chain at an arrival epoch is the number i∈{0,1,2,… }i\in\{0,1,2,\dots\}i∈{0,1,2,…} of persons found ahead (waiting or in service) by the arriving customer. Its transition matrix P=[pij]P=[p_{ij}]P=[pij​] of eq. (8) is given in three blocks, written with the death-process probabilities [n∣m]=∫0∞(mn)(1−e−u/b)ne−(m−n)u/b dA(u)[n\mid m]=\int_0^\infty\binom{m}{n}(1-e^{-u/b})^n e^{-(m-n)u/b}\,dA(u)[n∣m]=∫0∞​(nm​)(1−e−u/b)ne−(m−n)u/bdA(u) of (9)–(10), the probabilities {n∣s;m}\{n\mid s;m\}{n∣s;m} of (11)–(12), and the Poisson probabilities (n∣s)=∫0∞e−su/b(su/b)n/n! dA(u)(n\mid s)=\int_0^\infty e^{-su/b}(su/b)^n/n!\,dA(u)(n∣s)=∫0∞​e−su/b(su/b)n/n!dA(u) of (13)–(14):

pij={(i+1−j∣s)j≥s, j≤i+1,[ i+1−j∣i+1 ]i<s, j<s, j≤i+1,{s−j∣s; i−s+1}i≥s, j<s,0j>i+1.p_{ij}=\begin{cases}(i+1-j\mid s) & j\ge s,\ j\le i+1,\\ [\,i+1-j\mid i+1\,] & i<s,\ j<s,\ j\le i+1,\\ \{s-j\mid s;\,i-s+1\} & i\ge s,\ j<s,\\ 0 & j>i+1.\end{cases}pij​=⎩⎨⎧​(i+1−j∣s)[i+1−j∣i+1]{s−j∣s;i−s+1}0​j≥s, j≤i+1,i<s, j<s, j≤i+1,i≥s, j<s,j>i+1.​

The key function is

F(λ)=∫0∞e−(1−λ)su/b dA(u).F(\lambda)=\int_0^\infty e^{-(1-\lambda)su/b}\,dA(u).F(λ)=∫0∞​e−(1−λ)su/bdA(u).

The queue size met by an arrival is Q=max⁡(i−s,0)Q=\max(i-s,0)Q=max(i−s,0). The waiting time www is, given iii, the sum of k=max⁡(i−s+1,0)k=\max(i-s+1,0)k=max(i−s+1,0) independent exponential variables of mean b/sb/sb/s.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem IV (p. 350)

When ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1 the chain has a limiting distribution π\piπ, and with λ\lambdaλ the root of F(λ)=λF(\lambda)=\lambdaF(λ)=λ in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1) and c=b/(s(1−λ))c=b/(s(1-\lambda))c=b/(s(1−λ)),

Pr⁡(Q=n∣Q>0)=(1−λ)λn−1 (n≥1),Pr⁡(w>t∣w>0)=e−t/c (t≥0),\Pr(Q=n\mid Q>0)=(1-\lambda)\lambda^{n-1}\ (n\ge1),\qquad \Pr(w>t\mid w>0)=e^{-t/c}\ (t\ge0),Pr(Q=n∣Q>0)=(1−λ)λn−1 (n≥1),Pr(w>t∣w>0)=e−t/c (t≥0),

with both conditioning events of positive probability. The goal fixes no constant beyond those the theorem names: λ\lambdaλ and ccc are determined by AAA, bbb and sss.

Milestones

  • The matrix is stochastic (p. 349), and the chain is irreducible and aperiodic (p. 347).
  • The coefficients (n∣s)(n\mid s)(n∣s) are positive, sum to one and have mean 1/ρ1/\rho1/ρ; F(λ)=∑n(n∣s)λnF(\lambda)=\sum_n (n\mid s)\lambda^nF(λ)=∑n​(n∣s)λn; for ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1 the equation F(λ)=λF(\lambda)=\lambdaF(λ)=λ has a unique root in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1) (p. 348–349).
  • For the trial vector x=[μ0,…,μs−2,1,λ,λ2,… ]x=[\mu_0,\dots,\mu_{s-2},1,\lambda,\lambda^2,\dots]x=[μ0​,…,μs−2​,1,λ,λ2,…] (15): the invariance equations for j≥sj\ge sj≥s are equivalent to F(λ)=λF(\lambda)=\lambdaF(λ)=λ; those for 1≤j≤s−11\le j\le s-11≤j≤s−1 determine the μ\muμ's; the one for j=0j=0j=0 follows from the row sums (pp. 348–349).
  • A nonnull absolutely summable invariant vector makes the chain ergodic, and normalized it is the limiting distribution (p. 348).
  • Theorem I: for ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1 the chain is irreducible and ergodic, and πj=Cλj−(s−1)\pi_j=C\lambda^{j-(s-1)}πj​=Cλj−(s−1) for j≥s−1j\ge s-1j≥s−1.
  • Theorem II: Pr⁡(Q=0)=α=∑μ+1+λ∑μ+1/(1−λ)\Pr(Q=0)=\alpha=\dfrac{\sum\mu+1+\lambda}{\sum\mu+1/(1-\lambda)}Pr(Q=0)=α=∑μ+1/(1−λ)∑μ+1+λ​ and Pr⁡(w=0)=β=∑μ+1∑μ+1/(1−λ)\Pr(w=0)=\beta=\dfrac{\sum\mu+1}{\sum\mu+1/(1-\lambda)}Pr(w=0)=β=∑μ+1/(1−λ)∑μ+1​.
  • Theorem III: E(Q)=(1−α)/(1−λ)E(Q)=(1-\alpha)/(1-\lambda)E(Q)=(1−α)/(1−λ) and E(w)/b=(1−β)/(s(1−λ))E(w)/b=(1-\beta)/(s(1-\lambda))E(w)/b=(1−β)/(s(1−λ)).
  • Eq. (27): for M/M/s the root is λ=ρ\lambda=\rhoλ=ρ.

Significance

Theorem IV says that, whatever the input law and the number of servers, the part of the equilibrium waiting-time law away from zero is exponential and the part of the queue-size law away from zero is geometric, both governed by the single number λ\lambdaλ. All equilibrium quantities of GI/M/s (Theorems II–III and the delay distribution) then reduce to computing λ\lambdaλ from a one-dimensional equation and the finitely many μ\muμ's from a triangular linear system. This is the standard textbook treatment of G/M/c queues and the template for many later matrix-geometric results.

The results are proved in the paper, partly by appeal to Feller's theory of denumerable chains and to "tedious but elementary" verifications. None of them is machine-checked. The mission formalizes the paper's chain of argument: the explicit transition matrix, its stochasticity, the reduction of the invariance equations, the passage from a summable invariant vector to the limiting distribution, and the computation of the laws of QQQ and www from it. The single-server special cases are posed separately on the platform (QueueingFundamentals.GM1.arrival_point_geometric, GM1.waiting_time_cdf, GM1.arrival_point_means, GM1.mean_waiting_times, FosterQueues.GIM1.gim1_classification); they do not cover s≥2s\ge2s≥2.

Difficulty

The obvious route is to guess the geometric tail and check it against the balance equations. For j≥sj\ge sj≥s this works, but the rows i≥si\ge si≥s of the block B\mathbf BB involve the convolution integral (11), and the equations for j<sj<sj<s couple the geometric tail to the boundary terms μ0,…,μs−2\mu_0,\dots,\mu_{s-2}μ0​,…,μs−2​. Showing these are solvable, and that the row sums of the three-block matrix equal one, requires handling (11) explicitly. The second obstacle is the limit theorem itself: an invariant vector does not, by itself, give pijn→πjp^n_{ij}\to\pi_jpijn​→πj​. That step needs Feller's dichotomy for irreducible aperiodic denumerable chains, which Mathlib does not provide. Finally, the conditional waiting-time law requires summing an Erlang mixture with geometric weights in closed form.

Formalization scope

The queue process itself is not formalized. The chain is defined by its transition matrix (8)–(14), and www by the Erlang mixture of p. 349, as the paper derives both by a modelling argument. A chain is any TransitionMatrix P of the published Markov-chain vocabulary with P.p = gimsMatrix s A b; states are 000-based. "Ergodic" is Feller's: Aperiodic ∧ PositiveRecurrent. The limiting distribution is asserted as Tendsto (P.stepProb n i j) atTop (𝓝 (π j)) for all i,ji,ji,j, not as a stationary vector. The input law satisfies the published IsInterarrivalLaw A a⁻¹ (a probability measure carried by [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), integrable, mean aaa), and (n∣s)(n\mid s)(n∣s) is the published serviceProb A (s/b) n. Conditional laws are stated multiplied out, together with positivity of the conditioning probabilities. Every series identity is stated with HasSum.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: λ\lambdaλ is tied to F(λ)=λF(\lambda)=\lambdaF(λ)=λ on (0,1)(0,1)(0,1) rather than free; π\piπ is the limiting distribution of PPP, asserted to exist, not a probability vector handed to the statement; the conditioning events are asserted to have positive probability; the matrix is the GI/M/s matrix, not the GI/M/1 one; and the μ\muμ's of Theorems II–III are characterized by the invariance equations, never defined from π\piπ.

A complete development needs: Feller's limit theorem for irreducible aperiodic positive recurrent chains (reusable well beyond this mission), Foster's sufficiency criterion (referenced, open), Fubini for the stochastic-matrix identities, parametric interval integrals for the block B\mathbf BB, and Erlang distribution functions. Contributions to the general Markov-chain milestones are as welcome as those specific to GI/M/s.

Selected references

  • D. G. Kendall, Stochastic processes occurring in the theory of queues and their analysis by the method of the imbedded Markov chain, Ann. Math. Statist. 24(3), 338–354, 1953. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177728975
  • F. G. Foster, On the stochastic matrices associated with certain queuing processes, Ann. Math. Statist. 24(3), 355–360, 1953. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177728976
  • W. Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1, Wiley, 1950, ch. 15.
  • W. L. Smith, On the distribution of queueing times, Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc. 49, 449–461, 1953 (cited by Kendall as "to be published", ref. [19]).
  • D. Gross, J. F. Shortle, J. M. Thompson, C. M. Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, 4th ed., Wiley, 2008, §5.3.
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AnalysisProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

The Data-Driven Newsvendor Problem: New Bounds and Insights II: Every Log-Concave Demand Has Weighted Mean Spread at Least min(b,h)/(b+h)Research Paper

Motivation

The newsvendor problem is the basic single-period inventory model: a decision maker orders qqq units before a random demand DDD is observed, pays b>0b>0b>0 per unit of unmet demand and h>0h>0h>0 per unit left over, and minimizes the expected cost C(q)=E[b(D−q)++h(q−D)+]C(q)=E[b(D-q)^+ + h(q-D)^+]C(q)=E[b(D−q)++h(q−D)+]. When the distribution of DDD is known, the optimal order is the b/(b+h)b/(b+h)b/(b+h) quantile of DDD. In practice the distribution is unknown and only a sample of past demands is available; the standard data-driven order is the sample average approximation (SAA), the b/(b+h)b/(b+h)b/(b+h) quantile of the empirical distribution.

R. Levi, G. Perakis and J. Uichanco, The Data-Driven Newsvendor Problem: New Bounds and Insights (Operations Research 63(6), 2015), ask how many samples guarantee that the SAA order is ϵ\epsilonϵ-optimal with high probability. Levi, Roundy and Shmoys (2007) gave a distribution-free bound. Levi, Perakis and Uichanco show that, asymptotically in ϵ\epsilonϵ, the right measure of difficulty is a single scalar of the demand law, the weighted mean spread at the critical quantile, and that for the class of log-concave demand distributions (normal, uniform, exponential, logistic, Laplace and many others used in inventory theory) this scalar is bounded below by min⁡(b,h)/(b+h)\min(b,h)/(b+h)min(b,h)/(b+h). That uniform bound turns a distribution-dependent sample-size guarantee into one that holds for every log-concave demand, and is markedly tighter than the distribution-free one.

This mission formalizes the bound (Proposition 2) and the chain of lemmas the paper uses to prove it. The source is the authors' accepted manuscript of the paper (MIT DSpace), cited by its own page numbers.

Setting

Fix costs b>0b>0b>0, h>0h>0h>0 and the critical ratio β=b/(b+h)∈(0,1)\beta=b/(b+h)\in(0,1)β=b/(b+h)∈(0,1). A demand law is given by a probability density f:R→Rf:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rf:R→R: measurable, nonnegative, with ∫f=1\int f=1∫f=1. Its cdf is F(t)=∫(−∞,t]fF(t)=\int_{(-\infty,t]}fF(t)=∫(−∞,t]​f, and its β\betaβ quantile is

q∗=inf⁡{q:F(q)≥β}.q^*=\inf\{q : F(q)\ge \beta\}.q∗=inf{q:F(q)≥β}.

The absolute mean spread (AMS, Definition 1) at ttt is the gap between the conditional means above and below ttt,

Δ(t)=E(D∣D≥t)−E(D∣D≤t)=∫[t,∞)xf(x) dx1−F(t)−∫(−∞,t]xf(x) dxF(t),\Delta(t)=E(D\mid D\ge t)-E(D\mid D\le t)=\frac{\int_{[t,\infty)}x f(x)\,dx}{1-F(t)}-\frac{\int_{(-\infty,t]}x f(x)\,dx}{F(t)},Δ(t)=E(D∣D≥t)−E(D∣D≤t)=1−F(t)∫[t,∞)​xf(x)dx​−F(t)∫(−∞,t]​xf(x)dx​,

and the weighted mean spread (WMS, Definition 2) is Δ(q∗)f(q∗)\Delta(q^*)f(q^*)Δ(q∗)f(q∗).

A density is log-concave (Definition 3) if log⁡f\log flogf is concave on its support. Equivalently, f(x)af(y)1−a≤f(ax+(1−a)y)f(x)^a f(y)^{1-a}\le f(ax+(1-a)y)f(x)af(y)1−a≤f(ax+(1−a)y) for all x,yx,yx,y and a∈[0,1]a\in[0,1]a∈[0,1]; this form allows fff to vanish outside an interval.

For a log-concave fff and a point ttt with f(t)>0f(t)>0f(t)>0, the number γ1\gamma_1γ1​ is a supergradient of log⁡f\log flogf at ttt, written γ1∈∂log⁡f(t)\gamma_1\in\partial\log f(t)γ1​∈∂logf(t), if log⁡f(x)≤log⁡f(t)+γ1(x−t)\log f(x)\le\log f(t)+\gamma_1(x-t)logf(x)≤logf(t)+γ1​(x−t) for all xxx with f(x)>0f(x)>0f(x)>0. The paper splits the class L\mathbb LL of log-concave densities into the subclasses Lq∗,γ0,γ1\mathbb L_{q^*,\gamma_0,\gamma_1}Lq∗,γ0​,γ1​​ of densities with quantile q∗q^*q∗, f(q∗)=γ0f(q^*)=\gamma_0f(q∗)=γ0​ and γ1∈∂log⁡f(q∗)\gamma_1\in\partial\log f(q^*)γ1​∈∂logf(q∗), and minimizes the AMS over each subclass (problem (11)). The minimizer is the truncated exponential density

f~(x)=γ0eγ1(x−q∗)  on [x‾,x‾],x‾=q∗+1γ1log⁡ ⁣(1−γ1γ0β),x‾=q∗+1γ1log⁡ ⁣(1+γ1γ0(1−β)),\tilde f(x)=\gamma_0e^{\gamma_1(x-q^*)}\ \text{ on }[\underline x,\overline x],\qquad \underline x=q^*+\tfrac1{\gamma_1}\log\!\big(1-\tfrac{\gamma_1}{\gamma_0}\beta\big),\quad \overline x=q^*+\tfrac1{\gamma_1}\log\!\big(1+\tfrac{\gamma_1}{\gamma_0}(1-\beta)\big),f~​(x)=γ0​eγ1​(x−q∗)  on [x​,x],x​=q∗+γ1​1​log(1−γ0​γ1​​β),x=q∗+γ1​1​log(1+γ0​γ1​​(1−β)),

and zero elsewhere (display (12)), with AMS zq∗,γ0,γ1∗z^*_{q^*,\gamma_0,\gamma_1}zq∗,γ0​,γ1​∗​ in closed form.

The Lean development uses the names IsPdf, cdfOf, quantileOf, ams, IsLogSupergradient, tildeF and zStar for these objects, in the namespace DataDrivenNV.WMS.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2

For every log-concave density fff,

Δ(q∗) f(q∗) ≥ min⁡(b,h)b+h.\Delta(q^*)\,f(q^*)\ \ge\ \frac{\min(b,h)}{b+h}.Δ(q∗)f(q∗) ≥ b+hmin(b,h)​.

The statement has no further hypothesis: no moment condition, no continuity, no restriction on γ0,γ1\gamma_0,\gamma_1γ0​,γ1​.

Milestones, in the order of the paper's proof

  1. Lemma 1: at the quantile, −b+hh≤γ1γ0≤b+hb-\frac{b+h}{h}\le\frac{\gamma_1}{\gamma_0}\le\frac{b+h}{b}−hb+h​≤γ0​γ1​​≤bb+h​.
  2. Lemma 2: f(x)≤γ0eγ1(x−t)f(x)\le\gamma_0e^{\gamma_1(x-t)}f(x)≤γ0​eγ1​(x−t) for every xxx.
  3. Lemma 3 (Domination Lemma): a density dominated on the support of another, with the same mass left of ttt, has the larger AMS at ttt.
  4. Proposition 1: f~\tilde ff~​ belongs to Lq,γ0,γ1\mathbb L_{q,\gamma_0,\gamma_1}Lq,γ0​,γ1​​ and minimizes the AMS there.
  5. The closed form: Δf~(q)=zq,γ0,γ1∗=γ0γ12[(b+hh+γ1γ0)log⁡(1+γ1γ0hb+h)+(b+hb−γ1γ0)log⁡(1−γ1γ0bb+h)]\Delta_{\tilde f}(q)=z^*_{q,\gamma_0,\gamma_1}=\frac{\gamma_0}{\gamma_1^2}\big[(\frac{b+h}{h}+\frac{\gamma_1}{\gamma_0})\log(1+\frac{\gamma_1}{\gamma_0}\frac{h}{b+h})+(\frac{b+h}{b}-\frac{\gamma_1}{\gamma_0})\log(1-\frac{\gamma_1}{\gamma_0}\frac{b}{b+h})\big]Δf~​​(q)=zq,γ0​,γ1​∗​=γ12​γ0​​[(hb+h​+γ0​γ1​​)log(1+γ0​γ1​​b+hh​)+(bb+h​−γ0​γ1​​)log(1−γ0​γ1​​b+hb​)].
  6. Lemma 4: three elementary inequalities in β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1) and η∈(−11−β,1β)\eta\in(-\frac1{1-\beta},\frac1\beta)η∈(−1−β1​,β1​).

Significance

The proposition is what makes the paper's log-concave sample-size bound (Theorem 4) parameter-free: the probability that the biased SAA order is ϵ\epsilonϵ-optimal is, asymptotically, at least 1−2exp⁡(−14Nϵ Δ(q∗)f(q∗))1-2\exp(-\frac14N\epsilon\,\Delta(q^*)f(q^*))1−2exp(−41​NϵΔ(q∗)f(q∗)) (Theorem 3), and Proposition 2 replaces the unknown Δ(q∗)f(q∗)\Delta(q^*)f(q^*)Δ(q∗)f(q∗) by min⁡(b,h)/(b+h)\min(b,h)/(b+h)min(b,h)/(b+h). A manager who only knows that demand is log-concave can then size a sample without estimating any parameter of the law.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing about it is open. As far as is known it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it produces a checked lower bound for an inventory-theory quantity together with reusable facts about log-concave densities on the line: exponential envelopes from a supergradient, the quantile-and-slope constraints of Lemma 1, and the comparison of conditional means behind the Domination Lemma.

Difficulty

The definitions are elementary, but the proof passes through an infinite-dimensional optimization problem over a class of densities. The obvious first step, "the AMS is minimized by the most concentrated density", has no direct meaning without fixing the density value and the slope of log⁡f\log flogf at the quantile; after fixing them, one needs the envelope of Lemma 2, a stochastic comparison (Lemma 3) and an explicit integral of a truncated exponential. The Domination Lemma as printed is false (a density whose support has a gap to the right of ttt is a counterexample), so it is formalized under the hypothesis that the dominating density is positive exactly on an interval around ttt, which is how Proposition 1 uses it. The case γ1=0\gamma_1=0γ1​=0 (uniform minimizer) and the two boundary values of γ1/γ0\gamma_1/\gamma_0γ1​/γ0​ (one-sided exponential minimizers) are not covered by the closed form (12) and must be handled separately in a proof of the goal. Finally, Lemma 1 rests on the monotonicity of the failure rate f/(1−F)f/(1-F)f/(1−F) and the reversed hazard rate f/Ff/Ff/F of log-concave laws, which must be proved from log-concavity.

Formalization scope

Densities are functions ℝ → ℝ with IsPdf f (measurable, nonnegative everywhere, integrable, total integral 1); the law of DDD is never introduced separately. Log-concavity is the published definition ConvexOptimization.LogConcaveOn Set.univ f (power form, zeros allowed). Concavity of Real.log ∘ f is not used, because Real.log 0 = 0 would treat log⁡f\log flogf as 000 off the support. The quantile is an sInf; for β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1) its defining set is nonempty and bounded below. The AMS is the difference of two ratios of integrals. At the quantile both denominators are positive, and the goal and Proposition 1 assume no integrability of xf(x)xf(x)xf(x), since log-concave densities have exponential tails. The value f(q∗)f(q^*)f(q∗) is taken pointwise; q∗q^*q∗ lies in the interior of the support, where a log-concave density is continuous.

Conventions and disclosed departures from the page:

  • "γ1∈∂log⁡f\gamma_1\in\partial\log fγ1​∈∂logf, the set of all subgradients" is read as the superdifferential of the concave log⁡f\log flogf on {f>0}\{f>0\}{f>0}.
  • Lemma 3 carries three added hypotheses: f2f_2f2​ vanishes outside some [l,u]∋t[l,u]\ni t[l,u]∋t and is positive on (l,u)(l,u)(l,u); 0<F1(t)<10<F_1(t)<10<F1​(t)<1; and xf1(x)xf_1(x)xf1​(x), xf2(x)xf_2(x)xf2​(x) are integrable. The first repairs the printed statement; the other two are the conditions under which Definition 1 makes sense for general densities.
  • Proposition 1 and the closed form of z∗z^*z∗ are stated for γ1≠0\gamma_1\neq0γ1​=0 and γ1/γ0\gamma_1/\gamma_0γ1​/γ0​ strictly inside the interval of Lemma 1, where (12) is a finite interval.
  • The goal has no such restriction.

Assumption 1 of the paper (monotonicity of fff beyond q∗q^*q∗) and the continuity assumption of §3 are hypotheses of Theorems 3–4 only and are not used here. A formalization in which f(q∗)f(q^*)f(q∗) or Δ(q∗)\Delta(q^*)Δ(q∗) takes a junk value (a non-integrable xf(x)xf(x)xf(x), a zero denominator) would make the goal trivially true or false; the hypotheses above exclude this, and no statement assumes the conclusion of another.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones in any order; general lemmas on log-concave densities on R\mathbb RR (exponential tails, integrability of moments, monotone hazard rates, continuity in the interior of the support); and the boundary cases of problem (11).

Selected references

  • R. Levi, G. Perakis, J. Uichanco, The Data-Driven Newsvendor Problem: New Bounds and Insights, Operations Research 63(6):1294–1306, 2015. Authors' accepted manuscript, MIT DSpace. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2015.1422
  • R. Levi, R. O. Roundy, D. B. Shmoys, Provably Near-Optimal Sampling-Based Policies for Stochastic Inventory Control Models, Mathematics of Operations Research 32(4):821–839, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1070.0272
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