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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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Campaigns (experimental)

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Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

Block Sensitivity vs. Sensitivity

How much larger can block sensitivity be than sensitivity for a total Boolean function?

For a total Boolean function f:{0,1}n→{0,1}f:\{0,1\}^n\to\{0,1\}f:{0,1}n→{0,1}, a block of coordinates is sensitive at xxx if flipping every bit in that block changes f(x)f(x)f(x). Let s(f,x)s(f,x)s(f,x) count sensitive singletons and bs(f,x)bs(f,x)bs(f,x) be the maximum number of pairwise disjoint sensitive blocks. Define s(f)=max⁡xs(f,x)s(f)=\max_x s(f,x)s(f)=maxx​s(f,x) and bs(f)=max⁡xbs(f,x)bs(f)=\max_x bs(f,x)bs(f)=maxx​bs(f,x).

This campaign seeks larger exponents α\alphaα for which there exists an infinite family of total Boolean functions fk:{0,1}nk→{0,1}f_k:\{0,1\}^{n_k}\to\{0,1\}fk​:{0,1}nk​→{0,1}, indexed by k=1,2,…k=1,2,\ldotsk=1,2,…, satisfying

s(fk)→∞,bs(fk)≥s(fk)α−o(1)as k→∞.s(f_k)\to\infty,\qquad bs(f_k)\ge s(f_k)^{\alpha-o(1)}\quad\text{as }k\to\infty.s(fk​)→∞,bs(fk​)≥s(fk​)α−o(1)as k→∞.

Here o(1)o(1)o(1) denotes a quantity tending to zero as k→∞k\to\inftyk→∞. Higher is better. The classical exponent is 222, and Huang's bound gives a ceiling of 444.

OpenAI's construction achieves an exponent strictly greater than 222.

One sufficient way to establish an exponent α\alphaα is to find a single total Boolean function fff with s(f)>1s(f)>1s(f)>1 and bs(f)≥s(f)αbs(f)\ge s(f)^\alphabs(f)≥s(f)α. Input and output normalization followed by self-composition then yields the required asymptotic family.

≥ 2.13981Formalized record→≥ 2.15Open frontier
11 provers on it22 of 23 missions formalized

Integer Multiplication Below n log n

Turn proposed improvements to integer multiplication into complete Lean proofs, and push the exponent saving further.

Harvey and van der Hoeven established an O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) algorithm in 2021. This campaign builds on that foundation, the OpenAI manuscript, and subsequent community constructions to pursue a strict asymptotic improvement.

For two nnn-bit integers, the target is

T(n)=O ⁣(n L(n)1−κ),L(n)=max⁡(⌈log⁡2n⌉,1).T(n)=O\!\left(n\,L(n)^{1-\kappa}\right),\qquad L(n)=\max(\lceil\log_2 n\rceil,1).T(n)=O(nL(n)1−κ),L(n)=max(⌈log2​n⌉,1).

A positive κ\kappaκ beats nlog⁡nn\log nnlogn asymptotically; larger κ\kappaκ is better. Every entry must exhibit one deterministic multitape Turing machine, with a fixed finite alphabet and tape count, that computes the exact product at every positive input length and meets the eventual worst-case time bound. The tracked number measures an asymptotic exponent saving.

≥ 3.6 × 10−5Formalized record→≥ 5.1 × 10−5Open frontier
8 provers on it4 of 7 missions formalized

3SUM Exponent

Classical algorithms solve 3SUM in O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams gave a deterministic O(n1.9992)O(n^{1.9992})O(n1.9992) algorithm, refuting the integer 3SUM hypothesis. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for 3SUM on polynomially bounded integers, using a word RAM with O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-bit words, and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 1.960614Formalized record→≤ 1.9202796Open frontier
4 provers on it7 of 8 missions formalized

All-Pairs Shortest Paths (APSP) Exponent

Classical algorithms solve all-pairs shortest paths in O(n3)O(n^3)O(n3) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams refuted the APSP conjecture with a deterministic O(n2.99942)O(n^{2.99942})O(n2.99942) algorithm. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for exact APSP and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 2.995561Formalized record
3 provers on it5 of 5 missions formalized

The irrationality measure of π

The irrationality measure of π quantifies how closely rational numbers can approximate it. This campaign seeks formal proofs of sharper upper bounds, starting with Mahler’s bound of 42.

≤ 2Formalized record
19 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constant

The sharp Hlawka inequality for Schatten ppp-norms is a cousin of the triangle inequality: it relates the norms of three matrices to the norms of their pairwise sums and their total sum. For complex diagonal matrices, an exact formula for the best possible comparison constant has been proved in Lean for every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256. We conjecture that the same formula holds for all p≥2p\ge2p≥2.

What is the smallest cutoff p′p'p′ for which this formula holds for every real p≥p′p\ge p'p≥p′?

References:

  • Wolfram MathWorld, Hlawka's Inequality.
  • Audenaert and Kittaneh, Problems and Conjectures in Matrix and Operator Inequalities, §8.2 (2017).
  • Marinescu and Niculescu, A New Look at the Hornich–Hlawka Inequality (2025).
  • Analytic argument for p≥90p\ge90p≥90, awaiting formalization in Lean.
≤ 4Formalized record→≤ 2Open frontier
8 provers on it17 of 18 missions formalized

Odd numbers as sums of primes

Is every odd number a sum of kkk primes? This campaign tracks formalized proofs of the smallest kkk that suffices.

Schnirelmann (1930) showed some finite kkk works. Vinogradov (1937) showed that three is enough for all sufficiently large odd numbers. Tao (2012) proved k=5k = 5k=5 unconditionally. Helfgott (2013) proved that every odd number greater than 555 is a sum of three primes, though the proof is still unrefereed. Ideally, we can formalize this statement here. Note that three is optimal: 272727 is neither prime nor 222 + prime.

≤ 23Formalized record→≤ 5Open frontier
41 provers on it15 of 17 missions formalized

Matrix multiplication exponent

Schoolbook matrix multiplication takes n3n^3n3 operations. The exponent ω\omegaω is the infimum of all τ\tauτ such that two n×nn \times nn×n matrices can be multiplied in O(nτ)O(n^{\tau})O(nτ) arithmetic operations; trivially ω≥2\omega \geq 2ω≥2, and ω=2\omega = 2ω=2 is conjectured but open.

Strassen gave the first nontrivial bound, ω<2.81\omega < 2.81ω<2.81, in 1969, and introduced the laser method in 1986 to reach ω<2.48\omega < 2.48ω<2.48. Coppersmith and Winograd's 1990 bound of 2.3762.3762.376 stood for two decades. Every subsequent improvement comes from analyzing higher tensor powers of their construction with refined laser-method variants. That line reached ω<2.371339\omega < 2.371339ω<2.371339 in 2025, and the current record is ω<2.371177\omega < 2.371177ω<2.371177, from August 2026. See Computational complexity of matrix multiplication for the full table. Can we formalize these results and even improve on them?

≤ 2.25Formalized record
16 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism Design·Captain: mikedeng1

Round-Robin Beyond Additive Agents: Existence and Fairness of Approximate Equilibria 3: For Submodular Valuations Every α-Approximate Pure Nash Equilibrium of Round-Robin Is α/3-EF1Research Paper

Motivation

Round-Robin is the simplest allocation rule for indivisible goods: agents take turns, in a fixed order, picking their favourite remaining good. When agents have additive valuations and report them truthfully, the outcome is envy-free up to one good (EF1) — every agent values its own bundle at least as much as any other bundle with one good removed, a notion going back to Lipton et al., 2004 and Budish (2011) — which makes Round-Robin a standard baseline in fair division (Markakis, 2017). The mechanism, however, only sees reported rankings, and agents can gain by misreporting; without monetary transfers no truthful mechanism has a meaningful fairness guarantee even for two additive agents. Amanatidis, Birmpas, Lazos, Leonardi and Reiffenhäuser (arXiv:2301.13652, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2025) therefore study equilibrium fairness of Round-Robin when valuations go beyond additive. This mission concerns their fairness result for submodular valuations: strategic play does not destroy fairness, it only degrades it by a constant factor.

Timeline. Aziz, Goldberg and Walsh (ADT 2017) proved that Round-Robin always has a pure Nash equilibrium for additive valuations. Amanatidis et al. (WINE 2021) initiated the study of equilibrium fairness and showed that, for additive valuations, Round-Robin has equilibria and each of them yields an EF1 allocation with respect to the true valuations. The 2023 paper extends equilibrium existence to cancelable valuations (exact PNE) and submodular valuations (1/2-approximate PNE, with 1/2 tight), and proves that approximate equilibria are approximately EF1: factor α/3\alpha/3α/3 for submodular and α/2\alpha/2α/2 for subadditive cancelable valuations.

Setting

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 agents and a set MMM of mmm goods. Agent iii has a valuation vi:2M→Rv_i:2^M\to\mathbb Rvi​:2M→R that is normalized (vi(∅)=0v_i(\emptyset)=0vi​(∅)=0) and non-decreasing. The marginal value of a good ggg with respect to a set SSS is vi(g∣S)=vi(S∪{g})−vi(S)v_i(g\mid S)=v_i(S\cup\{g\})-v_i(S)vi​(g∣S)=vi​(S∪{g})−vi​(S), and viv_ivi​ is submodular if vi(g∣S)≥vi(g∣T)v_i(g\mid S)\ge v_i(g\mid T)vi​(g∣S)≥vi​(g∣T) whenever S⊆TS\subseteq TS⊆T and g∉Tg\notin Tg∈/T.

Each agent reports a ranking ≻i\succ_i≻i​, a total order on MMM. Round-Robin(≻)(\succ)(≻) runs mmm steps; in step ttt (counted from 000) agent t mod nt\bmod ntmodn receives its ≻\succ≻-top good among those still unallocated. The result is an allocation (A1,…,An)(A_1,\dots,A_n)(A1​,…,An​). An allocation is α\alphaα-EF1 if for all agents i,ji,ji,j with Aj≠∅A_j\ne\emptysetAj​=∅ some g∈Ajg\in A_jg∈Aj​ satisfies vi(Ai)≥α vi(Aj∖{g})v_i(A_i)\ge\alpha\, v_i(A_j\setminus\{g\})vi​(Ai​)≥αvi​(Aj​∖{g}). A profile ≻\succ≻ is an α\alphaα-approximate pure Nash equilibrium (PNE) if no agent iii can, by reporting any other ranking ≻i′\succ'_i≻i′​, obtain a bundle worth more than 1/α1/\alpha1/α times its current one:

α⋅vi(RR(≻i′,≻−i)i)≤vi(RR(≻)i).\alpha\cdot v_i\big(\text{RR}(\succ'_i,\succ_{-i})_i\big)\le v_i\big(\text{RR}(\succ)_i\big).α⋅vi​(RR(≻i′​,≻−i​)i​)≤vi​(RR(≻)i​).

In Lean the objects are marginal, IsValuation, IsSubmodular, IsRanking, roundRobin, IsApproxEF1 and IsApproxPNE in RoundRobinEq.SubmodularEF1.Setting; the step-to-agent map agentAt n t = t % n comes from the shared module RoundRobinEq.CancelableBluff.Setting.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.4

For α∈(0,1]\alpha\in(0,1]α∈(0,1] and submodular valuations, every α\alphaα-approximate PNE ≻\succ≻ of Round-Robin yields an allocation that is α/3\alpha/3α/3-EF1 with respect to the true valuations:

∀i,j, Aj≠∅ ⇒ ∃g∈Aj:  vi(Ai) ≥ α3 vi(Aj∖{g}).\forall i,j,\ A_j\ne\emptyset\ \Rightarrow\ \exists g\in A_j:\ \ v_i(A_i)\ \ge\ \tfrac{\alpha}{3}\, v_i(A_j\setminus\{g\}).∀i,j, Aj​=∅ ⇒ ∃g∈Aj​:  vi​(Ai​) ≥ 3α​vi​(Aj​∖{g}).

Milestones

  1. Theorem 2.1 (Nemhauser–Wolsey–Fisher): vvv is non-decreasing submodular iff v(T)≤v(S)+∑g∈T∖Sv(g∣S)v(T)\le v(S)+\sum_{g\in T\setminus S}v(g\mid S)v(T)≤v(S)+∑g∈T∖S​v(g∣S) for all S,TS,TS,T.
  2. Lemma 4.6: if agent iii deviates, at most r−1r-1r−1 of the goods allocated before its rrr-th turn in the deviation run are still unallocated at that point of the original run.
  3. Lemma 4.7: in the original allocation, no agent holds more than 2(r−1)2(r-1)2(r−1) of the goods the deviation run allocates between iii's first and rrr-th turns.
  4. The parity split: splitting another agent's bundle (minus its first good) into odd- and even-indexed halves Y1,Y2Y_1,Y_2Y1​,Y2​, each half meets that set in at most r−1r-1r−1 goods.
  5. Inequality (2): agent iii's greedy deviation dominates, good by good and marginally, each half YℓY_\ellYℓ​ renamed by Algorithm 3.
  6. The closing bound vi(Aj∖{y1})≤3αvi(Ai)v_i(A_j\setminus\{y_1\})\le \tfrac3\alpha v_i(A_i)vi​(Aj​∖{y1​})≤α3​vi​(Ai​).

Companions (not milestones): Lemma 4.1 (the greedy response is 1/2-EF1 from the deviator's perspective) and Theorem 4.2 (two agents: α/2\alpha/2α/2).

Significance

The theorem says that fairness of Round-Robin is robust to strategic misreporting for a class far beyond additive valuations: whatever approximate equilibrium agents settle in, each agent's envy up to one good is bounded by 3/α3/\alpha3/α. Combined with the existence of a 1/2-approximate PNE (Theorem 3.7 of the same paper), it gives an equilibrium that is 1/6-EF1. Lemmas 4.6 and 4.7 are statements about two runs of Round-Robin that differ in one agent's report; they involve no valuations and are reused verbatim for subadditive cancelable valuations (Theorem 4.5).

The result is proved in the paper; nothing in it is formalized anywhere to our knowledge. The mission builds a finite fair-division layer (Round-Robin as a step-by-step process, rankings, α-EF1, approximate PNE) that does not exist in Mathlib, and checks the combinatorial coupling of two runs, which is where the paper's argument carries its weight.

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares agent iii's equilibrium bundle with its bundle after a good deviation (Algorithm 4's greedy response) and then compares that with agent jjj's bundle. With two agents everything not in AiA_iAi​ or Ai′A'_iAi′​ goes to jjj, and this closes the argument. With nnn agents the deviation reshuffles goods among all other agents, and there is no direct control on what jjj ends up holding relative to the deviation run. The proof needs a global statement (Lemma 4.6) about how much two Round-Robin runs that differ in one report can diverge before each of iii's turns, and then a careful indexing of AjA_jAj​ by allocation time in the other run, so that a counting bound turns into the good-by-good inequality (2). The bookkeeping of steps, rounds and two simultaneous runs is the main work.

Formalization scope

  • Agents are Fin n with n≥1n\ge1n≥1, 0-based; goods a finite type M. The paper's standing simplification m=knm=knm=kn (p. 7) is a hypothesis Fintype.card M = k * n of every theorem; the paper's reduction to this case (dummy goods) is not formalized.
  • Valuations are real-valued, normalized and non-decreasing (non-negativity follows); submodularity is the marginal form of p. 5.
  • Rankings are duplicate-free lists of all goods; deviations in the PNE hypothesis range over rankings only, and α∈(0,1]\alpha\in(0,1]α∈(0,1] is carried explicitly.
  • Steps and rounds are 0-based: the paper's SrS_rSr​ is allocBefore σ (r*n + i), and the paper's bounds r−1r-1r−1 for Sr−1′S'_{r-1}Sr−1′​, r∈[k]r\in[k]r∈[k], appear as rrr for r<kr<kr<k.
  • Algorithms 3 and 4 are encoded relationally (any tie-breaking); a statement for all relational solutions is at least as strong as the paper's.
  • Lemmas 4.6, 4.7 and the parity split are stated for an arbitrary deviating ranking, without valuations; inequality (2) is stated for an arbitrary set function and without the equilibrium hypothesis. These are disclosed strengthenings.

Trivializing formalizations are excluded: deviations over arbitrary lists (which would strengthen the hypothesis), α≤0\alpha\le0α≤0, EF1 computed on reported rankings instead of the true valuations, or the EF1 witness fixed in the goal statement would each change the theorem, and none is used.

Contributions welcome: proofs of Lemma 4.6 by induction on rounds (the reusable core), basic API for allocBefore/roundRobin (every good is allocated once, ∣Ai∣=k|A_i|=k∣Ai​∣=k), and Theorem 2.1.

Selected references

  • G. Amanatidis, G. Birmpas, P. Lazos, S. Leonardi, R. Reiffenhäuser, Round-Robin Beyond Additive Agents: Existence and Fairness of Approximate Equilibria, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2025; arXiv:2301.13652v1 (2023). https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.13652
  • G. L. Nemhauser, L. A. Wolsey, M. L. Fisher, An analysis of approximations for maximizing submodular set functions—I, Mathematical Programming 14, 1978. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01588971
  • R. J. Lipton, E. Markakis, E. Mossel, A. Saberi, On approximately fair allocations of indivisible goods, EC 2004. https://doi.org/10.1145/988772.988792
  • H. Aziz, P. Goldberg, T. Walsh, Equilibria in sequential allocation, ADT 2017, LNCS 10576, pp. 270–283 (Springer).
  • G. Amanatidis, G. Birmpas, F. Fusco, P. Lazos, S. Leonardi, R. Reiffenhäuser, Allocating Indivisible Goods to Strategic Agents: Pure Nash Equilibria and Fairness, WINE 2021, LNCS 13112, pp. 149–166. https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.08644
9 thms2 active usersReviewed
Machine LearningOperations ResearchStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Multitask Learning and Bandits via Robust Statistics: High-Probability ℓ1 Error Bound for the Robust Multitask (Trimmed Mean + LASSO) Estimator under Sparse HeterogeneityResearch Paper

Learning many related regressions at once

Service providers such as hospitals or retail stores each fit a predictive model on their own data, and many of them have few observations. The models of different providers are usually similar but not identical: most coefficients agree, while each provider deviates from the common model in a few features of its own. Multitask learning asks how data from all providers can be pooled to estimate every provider's model better than it could estimate alone, without being misled by the providers that differ.

Xu and Bastani (arXiv:2112.14233v5) model this with sparse heterogeneity: every task parameter is a shared vector plus a sparse deviation. They propose the robust multitask estimator (RMEstimator), which combines per-task least-squares estimates by a coordinatewise trimmed mean and then corrects each task by a LASSO regression centred at that shared estimate. Their main fixed-design guarantee, Proposition 5, is a high-probability bound on the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ estimation error of each task. The same estimator drives the paper's multitask contextual bandit algorithm (§5), whose regret analysis rests on this bound. The approach builds on transfer learning with a single proxy model (Bastani 2021) and on the robustness of the trimmed mean to corrupted samples (Lugosi and Mendelson 2021).

The model and the estimator

There are NNN tasks. Task j∈[N]j\in[N]j∈[N] has nj≥1n_j\ge1nj​≥1 observations, a fixed design matrix Xj∈Rnj×dX^j\in\mathbb R^{n_j\times d}Xj∈Rnj​×d whose columns satisfy the normalization 1nj∥X(⋅,i)j∥22=1\frac1{n_j}\|X^j_{(\cdot,i)}\|_2^2=1nj​1​∥X(⋅,i)j​∥22​=1 (equation (1)), and responses

Yj=Xjβj+ϵj,βj=β†+δj,∥δj∥0≤s.Y^j=X^j\beta^j+\epsilon^j,\qquad \beta^j=\beta^\dagger+\delta^j,\qquad \|\delta^j\|_0\le s .Yj=Xjβj+ϵj,βj=β†+δj,∥δj∥0​≤s.

The noise terms ϵkj\epsilon^j_kϵkj​ are mutually independent across all tasks and observations, and each is σj\sigma_jσj​-subgaussian with mean zero: E[eλϵkj]≤eσj2λ2/2\mathbb E[e^{\lambda\epsilon^j_k}]\le e^{\sigma_j^2\lambda^2/2}E[eλϵkj​]≤eσj2​λ2/2 for all λ∈R\lambda\in\mathbb Rλ∈R. Assumption 1 asks that the sample covariance matrices Σ^j=Xj⊤Xj/nj\widehat\Sigma^j=X^{j\top}X^j/n_jΣj=Xj⊤Xj/nj​ satisfy λmin⁡(Σ^j)≥ψ>0\lambda_{\min}(\widehat\Sigma^j)\ge\psi>0λmin​(Σj)≥ψ>0.

Given a trimming level ω\omegaω and regularization levels λj\lambda_jλj​, Algorithm 1 computes:

  1. the OLS estimates β^indj=(Xj⊤Xj)−1Xj⊤Yj\widehat\beta^j_{\mathrm{ind}}=(X^{j\top}X^j)^{-1}X^{j\top}Y^jβ​indj​=(Xj⊤Xj)−1Xj⊤Yj;
  2. the shared estimate β^RM,(i)†=TrimmedMean({β^ind,(i)j}j∈[N],ω)\widehat\beta^\dagger_{\mathrm{RM},(i)}=\mathrm{TrimmedMean}(\{\widehat\beta^j_{\mathrm{ind},(i)}\}_{j\in[N]},\omega)β​RM,(i)†​=TrimmedMean({β​ind,(i)j​}j∈[N]​,ω) for each coordinate iii, where the trimmed mean sorts the NNN values, discards the NωN\omegaNω smallest and the NωN\omegaNω largest, and averages the rest;
  3. for each task, β^RMj∈arg⁡min⁡β{1nj∥Xjβ−Yj∥22+λj∥β−β^RM†∥1}\widehat\beta^j_{\mathrm{RM}}\in\arg\min_\beta\big\{\frac1{n_j}\|X^j\beta-Y^j\|_2^2+\lambda_j\|\beta-\widehat\beta^\dagger_{\mathrm{RM}}\|_1\big\}β​RMj​∈argminβ​{nj​1​∥Xjβ−Yj∥22​+λj​∥β−β​RM†​∥1​}.

A coordinate iii is ζ\zetaζ-poorly-aligned, i∈Ipoorζi\in\mathcal I^\zeta_{\mathrm{poor}}i∈Ipoorζ​, if fewer than a fraction ζ\zetaζ of the tasks satisfy β(i)j≠β(i)†\beta^j_{(i)}\neq\beta^\dagger_{(i)}β(i)j​=β(i)†​; otherwise it is ζ\zetaζ-well-aligned (Definition 2).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5

For every constant C0>2C_0>2C0​>2, every 0<ζ<1/20<\zeta<1/20<ζ<1/2, every 0<η≤1/2−1/C0−ζ0<\eta\le 1/2-1/C_0-\zeta0<η≤1/2−1/C0​−ζ, every task jjj and every λj>0\lambda_j>0λj​>0, every output of Algorithm 1 with ω=ζ+η\omega=\zeta+\etaω=ζ+η satisfies

∥β^RMj−βj∥1≤6λjsζψ+4C0 d (3ζ+4η)max⁡i∈[N]σi2niψlog⁡3η\|\widehat\beta^j_{\mathrm{RM}}-\beta^j\|_1\le\frac{6\lambda_js}{\zeta\psi}+4C_0\,d\,(3\zeta+4\eta)\max_{i\in[N]}\sqrt{\frac{\sigma_i^2}{n_i\psi}\log\frac3\eta}∥β​RMj​−βj∥1​≤ζψ6λj​s​+4C0​d(3ζ+4η)i∈[N]max​ni​ψσi2​​logη3​​

with probability at least 1−(3d e−Nη2/9+2d e−λj2nj/(32σj2))1-\big(3d\,e^{-N\eta^2/9}+2d\,e^{-\lambda_j^2n_j/(32\sigma_j^2)}\big)1−(3de−Nη2/9+2de−λj2​nj​/(32σj2​)).

The printed Proposition 5 (p. 17) has C0C_0C0​ where this statement has 4C04C_04C0​. The proof on pp. 41–43 ends with ∥β^RMj−βj∥1≤6sλj/(ζψ)+4∥(β^RM†−β†)Ipoor∥1\|\widehat\beta^j_{\mathrm{RM}}-\beta^j\|_1\le 6s\lambda_j/(\zeta\psi)+4\|(\widehat\beta^\dagger_{\mathrm{RM}}-\beta^\dagger)_{\mathcal I_{\mathrm{poor}}}\|_1∥β​RMj​−βj∥1​≤6sλj​/(ζψ)+4∥(β​RM†​−β†)Ipoor​​∥1​ and combines it with (16), whose coefficient is C0C_0C0​, so it establishes the bound with 4C04C_04C0​. The goal is the bound the proof supports.

Milestones, in proof order

  1. (6): ∣Iwellζ∣≤s/ζ|\mathcal I^\zeta_{\mathrm{well}}|\le s/\zeta∣Iwellζ​∣≤s/ζ.
  2. Proposition 4: the trimmed mean of NNN samples, fewer than ζN\zeta NζN of them arbitrarily corrupted and the rest independent and subgaussian, has P[∣μ^−μ∣≥C0max⁡j∈Jcσj(3ζ+4η)log⁡(3/η)]≤3e−Nη2/9\mathbb P[|\widehat\mu-\mu|\ge C_0\max_{j\in\mathcal J^c}\sigma_j(3\zeta+4\eta)\sqrt{\log(3/\eta)}]\le 3e^{-N\eta^2/9}P[∣μ​−μ∣≥C0​maxj∈Jc​σj​(3ζ+4η)log(3/η)​]≤3e−Nη2/9.
  3. Lemma 1: P[2nj∥Xj⊤ϵj∥∞≤λj/2]≥1−2d e−λj2nj/(32σj2)\mathbb P[\tfrac2{n_j}\|X^{j\top}\epsilon^j\|_\infty\le\lambda_j/2]\ge1-2d\,e^{-\lambda_j^2n_j/(32\sigma_j^2)}P[nj​2​∥Xj⊤ϵj∥∞​≤λj​/2]≥1−2de−λj2​nj​/(32σj2​).
  4. OLS subgaussianity (p. 41): each β^ind,(i)j\widehat\beta^j_{\mathrm{ind},(i)}β​ind,(i)j​ is σj2/(njψ)\sqrt{\sigma_j^2/(n_j\psi)}σj2​/(nj​ψ)​-subgaussian with mean β(i)j\beta^j_{(i)}β(i)j​.
  5. (16): the shared estimate is accurate on Ipoor\mathcal I_{\mathrm{poor}}Ipoor​ with probability 1−3d e−Nη2/91-3d\,e^{-N\eta^2/9}1−3de−Nη2/9.
  6. (19): the LASSO cone inequality on the event of Lemma 1.
  7. Final display of p. 43: ∥β^RMj−βj∥1≤6sλj/(ζψ)+4∥(β^RM†−β†)Ipoor∥1\|\widehat\beta^j_{\mathrm{RM}}-\beta^j\|_1\le 6s\lambda_j/(\zeta\psi)+4\|(\widehat\beta^\dagger_{\mathrm{RM}}-\beta^\dagger)_{\mathcal I_{\mathrm{poor}}}\|_1∥β​RMj​−βj∥1​≤6sλj​/(ζψ)+4∥(β​RM†​−β†)Ipoor​​∥1​ on that event.

Significance

Proposition 5 separates two error sources: a LASSO term of order sλjs\lambda_jsλj​, which depends only on the task's own sample size, and a trimmed-mean term that shrinks with the number of tasks through max⁡iσi2/ni\max_i\sqrt{\sigma_i^2/n_i}maxi​σi2​/ni​​. With the hyperparameters of Appendix A.2 it yields Theorem 1, an error of order sd/nj+d/Nnj\sqrt{sd/n_j}+d/\sqrt{Nn_j}sd/nj​​+d/Nnj​​ up to logarithmic factors, against d/njd/\sqrt{n_j}d/nj​​ for a single task alone. The same decomposition underlies the paper's data-poor guarantee (Proposition 8) and the regret bounds of its multitask bandit algorithm.

The result is proved on paper; none of it has been machine-checked. A formal development checks the constant bookkeeping, including the factor 4 that the printed statement omits, and the use of the trimmed mean for samples that are independent but not identically distributed, which is where this paper departs from the classical i.i.d. robust-statistics results. Proposition 4 and Lemma 1 are reusable on their own: a corruption-robust concentration bound for the trimmed mean and a noise bound for fixed-design LASSO.

Difficulty

The obvious estimator of the shared parameter, the average of the per-task estimates, converges to the average of the βj\beta^jβj, which differs from β†\beta^\daggerβ† in up to min⁡{Ns,d}\min\{Ns,d\}min{Ns,d} coordinates, so the LASSO correction would have to undo a dense bias. The trimmed mean avoids this only on poorly-aligned coordinates, and only with high probability. The proof of Proposition 4 must control the samples that survive trimming even though they are not identically distributed and trimming biases the conditional means; that step needs a moment bound for subgaussian variables and a Hoeffding argument on a random index set. The LASSO step needs the cone inequality with a support Iˉj=Iwell∪Ij\bar{\mathcal I}_j=\mathcal I_{\mathrm{well}}\cup\mathcal I_jIˉj​=Iwell​∪Ij​ that is not the support of βj−β†\beta^j-\beta^\daggerβj−β†, and the counting bound (6) to control its size.

Formalization scope

  • Tasks, coordinates and observations are Fin N, Fin d, Fin (n j); paper index iii is Lean i − 1. Designs are deterministic matrices; only the noise is random.
  • Definition 1 with mean zero is Mathlib's HasSubgaussianMGF with variance proxy σj2\sigma_j^2σj2​, σj>0\sigma_j>0σj​>0. Independence of all noise terms is iIndepFun over the pairs (j,k)(j,k)(j,k).
  • Sparsity is ∥βj−β†∥0≤s\|\beta^j-\beta^\dagger\|_0\le s∥βj−β†∥0​≤s with δj=βj−β†\delta^j=\beta^j-\beta^\daggerδj=βj−β†. The model requires nj≥1n_j\ge1nj​≥1.
  • λmin⁡(Σ^j)≥ψ\lambda_{\min}(\widehat\Sigma^j)\ge\psiλmin​(Σj)≥ψ is written v⊤Σ^jv≥ψ∥v∥22v^\top\widehat\Sigma^jv\ge\psi\|v\|_2^2v⊤Σjv≥ψ∥v∥22​ for all vvv.
  • ∥⋅∥1\|\cdot\|_1∥⋅∥1​, ∥⋅∥∞\|\cdot\|_\infty∥⋅∥∞​, ∥⋅∥0\|\cdot\|_0∥⋅∥0​ and βI\beta_IβI​ are explicit finite sums, suprema, counts and restrictions. log⁡\loglog is the natural logarithm.
  • The trimmed mean removes ⌊Nω⌋\lfloor N\omega\rfloor⌊Nω⌋ values from each end and divides by the number kept; this is the paper's formula whenever Nω∈NN\omega\in\mathbb NNω∈N.
  • The LASSO step is the predicate "is a global minimizer", never a choice function, and λj\lambda_jλj​ is the parameter (the initialization λj=λ/nj\lambda_j=\lambda/\sqrt{n_j}λj​=λ/nj​​ is not imposed). The OLS inverse is Lean's matrix inverse, which Assumption 1 makes a genuine inverse.
  • "With probability at least 1−p1-p1−p" is: the outer probability of the failure event is at most ppp. The constant C0>2C_0>2C0​>2 is universally quantified, and the trimming level is ω=ζ+η\omega=\zeta+\etaω=ζ+η wherever the paper fixes it.
  • The deterministic milestones (19) and the final display of p. 43 are stated for an arbitrary centre bbb in place of β^RM†\widehat\beta^\dagger_{\mathrm{RM}}β​RM†​; their proofs use no property of it.

A formalization that drops Assumption 1 (making the OLS inverse a junk zero), lets the corrupted samples of Proposition 4 be independent or well-behaved, fixes a single C0C_0C0​ existentially, or reads a junk minimizer from Classical.choose, does not state the paper's result.

The development needs least-squares algebra for fixed designs, a Hoeffding bound for independent bounded variables, moment bounds for subgaussian variables, and the LASSO basic inequality. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, and so are alternative arguments for Proposition 4 with better constants.

Selected references

  • K. Xu and H. Bastani, Multitask Learning and Bandits via Robust Statistics, arXiv preprint, v5, 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.14233
  • G. Lugosi and S. Mendelson, Robust multivariate mean estimation: the optimality of trimmed mean, Annals of Statistics, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.11391
  • H. Bastani, Predicting with Proxies: Transfer Learning in High Dimension, Management Science, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.11097
  • P. Bühlmann and S. van de Geer, Statistics for High-Dimensional Data, Springer, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-20192-9
  • R. Tibshirani, Regression Shrinkage and Selection via the Lasso, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x
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Algorithmic Game TheoryEconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Retention or Acquisition? Behavior-Based Quality Disclosure I: Retention-Focused Disclosure Thresholds and Higher Second-Period Profits under Behavior-Based DisclosureResearch Paper

Motivation

Firms that hold purchase-history data can treat past customers and a rival's customers differently. The economics of behavior-based pricing (BBP), charging different prices to the two groups, is well developed: in a symmetric duopoly, poaching the rival's customers with discounts intensifies competition and usually lowers profits (Fudenberg and Tirole 2000; Villas-Boas 1999). The same data can also target information. A firm launching a new product of uncertain quality can disclose that quality (free samples, demonstrations, trials) at a cost per customer reached, and it may disclose to one segment and not the other. This is behavior-based quality disclosure (BBD).

Zhang and Li (Management Science 71(10), 2025) combine costly voluntary disclosure in the style of Jovanovic (1982) with BBP in a two-period Hotelling duopoly. Their Proposition 1 answers two questions about the second period: to which segment should a firm disclose more readily, and does the option to target disclosure help or hurt profits? This mission formalizes that proposition and the displayed formulas from which it is derived.

Setting

Two firms, A at 000 and B at 111, face a unit mass of consumers spread uniformly over [0,1][0,1][0,1], with unit transportation cost and a base value high enough that every consumer buys in every period. The first-period purchase splits the line at a share x1x_1x1​: A's turf [0,x1][0,x_1][0,x1​] consists of A's old customers, B's turf [x1,1][x_1,1][x1​,1] of B's.

In period 2 firm i∈{a,b}i\in\{a,b\}i∈{a,b} launches a product of quality qiq_iqi​; qaq_aqa​ and qbq_bqb​ are independent and uniform on [0,1][0,1][0,1], and consumers do not observe them. Disclosing to the consumers in an interval of length ℓ\ellℓ costs ℓc\ell cℓc, where ccc is the unit disclosure cost. A firm discloses to a segment exactly when its quality exceeds a disclosure threshold q^\hat qq^​; consumers who see no disclosure infer q≤q^q\le\hat qq≤q^​ and hold the belief q^/2\hat q/2q^​/2. The updated belief is therefore bel⁡(q^,q)=q\operatorname{bel}(\hat q,q)=qbel(q^​,q)=q if q>q^q>\hat qq>q^​ and q^/2\hat q/2q^​/2 otherwise.

  • Under uniform disclosure each firm has one threshold, q^a\hat q_aq^​a​ or q^b\hat q_bq^​b​, for the whole line, at cost ccc.
  • Under BBD firm A has a threshold q^ao\hat q_{ao}q^​ao​ for its own customers (cost x1cx_1cx1​c) and q^an\hat q_{an}q^​an​ for B's customers (cost (1−x1)c(1-x_1)c(1−x1​)c); B has q^bo\hat q_{bo}q^​bo​ and q^bn\hat q_{bn}q^​bn​ likewise.

In both regimes firms then set four prices: pao,pbnp_{ao},p_{bn}pao​,pbn​ on A's turf and pan,pbop_{an},p_{bo}pan​,pbo​ on B's turf. On A's turf, with beliefs q~ao,q~bn\tilde q_{ao},\tilde q_{bn}q~​ao​,q~​bn​, the consumers who stay with A are [0,xa][0,x_a][0,xa​] with xa=(1+pbn−pao+q~ao−q~bn)/2x_a=(1+p_{bn}-p_{ao}+\tilde q_{ao}-\tilde q_{bn})/2xa​=(1+pbn​−pao​+q~​ao​−q~​bn​)/2, clamped to the turf; B's turf is symmetric. A second-period equilibrium is a profile of thresholds and turf price strategies such that, for every belief pair, the turf prices are a Nash equilibrium among nonnegative prices, and every threshold is a best response: disclosing is optimal above it and withholding below it. The ex ante second-period profit E(πa2)E(\pi_{a2})E(πa2​) is A's expected revenue minus expected disclosure cost, over (qa,qb)(q_a,q_b)(qa​,qb​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1 (a)–(c), at x1=1/2x_1=1/2x1​=1/2

For 0<c<5/360<c<5/360<c<5/36, at the symmetric first-period share x1=1/2x_1=1/2x1​=1/2: equilibria exist under both regimes; in every BBD equilibrium

q^ao<q^an,q^bo<q^bn;\hat q_{ao}<\hat q_{an},\qquad \hat q_{bo}<\hat q_{bn};q^​ao​<q^​an​,q^​bo​<q^​bn​;

in every BBD equilibrium and for every realization (qa,qb)∈[0,1]2(q_a,q_b)\in[0,1]^2(qa​,qb​)∈[0,1]2, at the induced beliefs, each firm charges the rival's customers less than its own,

pan<pao,pbn<pbo;p_{an}<p_{ao},\qquad p_{bn}<p_{bo};pan​<pao​,pbn​<pbo​;

and for every BBD equilibrium and every uniform-disclosure equilibrium, each firm's ex ante second-period profit is strictly higher under BBD:

E(πi2)U<E(πi2)BBD,i∈{a,b}.E(\pi_{i2})^{\mathrm U}<E(\pi_{i2})^{\mathrm{BBD}},\qquad i\in\{a,b\}.E(πi2​)U<E(πi2​)BBD,i∈{a,b}.

The goal asserts the shape of the result (an order of thresholds, of prices and of profits) and no closed form.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 2, region 1: in region 1 the turf games have the unique equilibria pao∗=(1+2x1+q~ao−q~bn)/3p^*_{ao}=(1+2x_1+\tilde q_{ao}-\tilde q_{bn})/3pao∗​=(1+2x1​+q~​ao​−q~​bn​)/3, pbn∗=(4x1−1+q~bn−q~ao)/3p^*_{bn}=(4x_1-1+\tilde q_{bn}-\tilde q_{ao})/3pbn∗​=(4x1​−1+q~​bn​−q~​ao​)/3, and the mirror formulas on B's turf.
  2. (4): the uniform threshold q^a∗=(108c+(3−2x1)2+2x1−3)/3\hat q^*_a=(\sqrt{108c+(3-2x_1)^2}+2x_1-3)/3q^​a∗​=(108c+(3−2x1​)2​+2x1​−3)/3.
  3. (5): the uniform ex ante profit.
  4. Uniform equilibrium thresholds: q^a∗=q^b∗=2(1+27c−1)/3\hat q^*_a=\hat q^*_b=2(\sqrt{1+27c}-1)/3q^​a∗​=q^​b∗​=2(1+27c​−1)/3 at x1=1/2x_1=1/2x1​=1/2.
  5. (13): the own-customer threshold q^ao∗=(216x1c+(1+4x1)2−4x1−1)/3\hat q^*_{ao}=(\sqrt{216x_1c+(1+4x_1)^2}-4x_1-1)/3q^​ao∗​=(216x1​c+(1+4x1​)2​−4x1​−1)/3.
  6. (14): the BBD ex ante profit.
  7. BBD equilibrium thresholds: q^ao∗=q^bo∗=1+12c−1\hat q^*_{ao}=\hat q^*_{bo}=\sqrt{1+12c}-1q^​ao∗​=q^​bo∗​=1+12c​−1 and q^an∗=q^bn∗=(1+108c−1)/3\hat q^*_{an}=\hat q^*_{bn}=(\sqrt{1+108c}-1)/3q^​an∗​=q^​bn∗​=(1+108c​−1)/3 at x1=1/2x_1=1/2x1​=1/2.
  8. Table 1, second-period profit row: closed forms of E(πa2∗)E(\pi^*_{a2})E(πa2∗​) in both regimes.

Significance

The result. Part (a) says that disclosure should be retention focused: a firm reveals quality to its own customers over a wider range of qualities than to the rival's. This is the opposite of the acquisition focus BBP prescribes for prices, so the two instruments built on the same data pull in different directions. Part (b) records that prices stay acquisition focused: the rival's customers get the lower price. Part (c) says that targeted disclosure raises second-period profits, in contrast with the classical finding that targeted pricing lowers them. Under uniform disclosure a single threshold over-discloses to the rival's customers and under-discloses to one's own; BBD separates the two, and the paper locates the gain in the expected disclosure cost c(1−q^a)c(1-\hat q_a)c(1−q^​a​) in (5) against c[1−x1q^ao−(1−x1)q^an]c[1-x_1\hat q_{ao}-(1-x_1)\hat q_{an}]c[1−x1​q^​ao​−(1−x1​)q^​an​] in (14).

Formalizing it. The paper's proofs are in an Online Appendix; the main text shows the displayed formulas only. A formal proof checks the whole chain from the clamped price games, through the best-response conditions, to the closed forms of Table 1 and the final comparison. The comparison in (c) is delicate: the profit difference is positive on all of (0,5/36)(0,5/36)(0,5/36) but tends to 000 as c→0c\to0c→0 (about 3⋅10−103\cdot10^{-10}3⋅10−10 at c=10−5c=10^{-5}c=10−5), so a numerical check does not settle it. The mission also gives the platform its first Hotelling duopoly, its first behavior-based pricing model and its first costly-disclosure model.

Difficulty

There are three nested equilibrium notions: Nash prices in each turf for every belief pair, best-response thresholds given those prices, and expectations of piecewise-defined profits over the belief support. Lemma 2's prices solve first-order conditions only in the interior; uniqueness among nonnegative prices requires ruling out the corners where one firm sells nothing on a turf. Each threshold is characterized by a best-response condition rather than an equation, so obtaining (4) or (13) requires showing that the disclosure gain is monotone in quality and crosses the cost exactly once inside (0,1)(0,1)(0,1). The expected profits integrate squares of linear functions of beliefs that switch at the thresholds. Finally, (c) is a sign statement about a difference of algebraic functions of ccc with three different square roots that vanishes at c=0c=0c=0; plugging in endpoints or bounding term by term loses the sign near 000.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in the namespace BBDisclosure.Stage2. Conventions:

  • Transportation cost t=1t=1t=1, zero marginal cost, discount factor 111; the base value vvv cancels and is omitted, and full coverage is built in (every consumer buys from exactly one firm).
  • The standing assumption 0<c<5/360<c<5/360<c<5/36 (p. 8515; c>0c>0c>0 is implicit in a unit cost and needed for the strict inequality in (c)).
  • Expectations are iterated interval integrals ∫01∫01\int_0^1\int_0^1∫01​∫01​; no probability space is introduced and no integrability hypothesis is added.
  • Prices are nonnegative; shares are clamped to their turf.
  • Thresholds are defined by the best-response property, with the nondisclosure belief q^/2\hat q/2q^​/2 fixed under deviation. They are never defined as roots of the indifference equation or by their closed forms; prices are never defined by Lemma 2's formulas.
  • Proposition 1 and the equilibrium-threshold milestones are stated at x1=1/2x_1=1/2x1​=1/2, the symmetric first-period equilibrium share of Table 1. The first period is the subject of the companion mission (II).
  • "In region 1" for (4), (5), (13), (14) is read as: every belief pair on the support lies in Lemma 2's region 1, i.e. 1/2−q^bn/8<x1<1/2+q^an/81/2-\hat q_{bn}/8<x_1<1/2+\hat q_{an}/81/2−q^​bn​/8<x1​<1/2+q^​an​/8 under BBD and 1/2−q^b/8<x1<1/2+q^a/81/2-\hat q_b/8<x_1<1/2+\hat q_a/81/2−q^​b​/8<x1​<1/2+q^​a​/8 under uniform disclosure.
  • Part (b) of Proposition 1, on prices, is stated for every realization (qa,qb)∈[0,1]2(q_a,q_b)\in[0,1]^2(qa​,qb​)∈[0,1]2, comparing the turf price strategies at the beliefs that realization induces (both beliefs about a firm come from the same realized quality).

A formalization in which thresholds or prices are pinned to their closed forms, or in which the equilibrium predicate is unsatisfiable, would make the goal trivial; the goal therefore quantifies over equilibria of the game itself and includes existence of an equilibrium in both regimes. "Firms'" is stated for both A and B rather than assumed by symmetry.

Needed infrastructure: piecewise-quadratic optimization on a half-line (the clamped turf games), interval integrals of piecewise polynomials, and sign analysis of algebraic expressions in 1+12c\sqrt{1+12c}1+12c​, 1+27c\sqrt{1+27c}1+27c​, 1+108c\sqrt{1+108c}1+108c​. The turf-game analysis is reusable for any Hotelling model with behavior-based pricing. Contributions to any milestone, or to intermediate statements such as the conditional profits (3) and (12), are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Zhang and K. J. Li, Retention or Acquisition? Behavior-Based Quality Disclosure, Management Science 71(10), 8510–8525, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01081
  • D. Fudenberg and J. Tirole, Customer Poaching and Brand Switching, RAND Journal of Economics 31(4), 634–657, 2000. https://doi.org/10.2307/2696352
  • J. M. Villas-Boas, Dynamic Competition with Customer Recognition, RAND Journal of Economics 30(4), 604–631, 1999. https://doi.org/10.2307/2556067
  • B. Jovanovic, Truthful Disclosure of Information, Bell Journal of Economics 13(1), 36–44, 1982. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003428
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Bandit AlgorithmsMachine LearningOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Thompson Sampling with Information Relaxation Penalties II: The IRS Performance Bounds Are Monotone, W^TS ≥ W^IRS.FH ≥ W^IRS.V-Zero and W^TS ≥ W^IRS.V-EMaxResearch Paper

Motivation

In a Bayesian multi-armed bandit a decision maker pulls one of KKK arms in each of TTT periods, observes the reward, and updates a prior belief about each arm's unknown parameter. The best achievable expected total reward, V∗(T,y)V^*(T, y)V∗(T,y), is the value of a dynamic program over beliefs, and for all but the smallest instances it cannot be computed. Upper bounds on V∗V^*V∗ are therefore the yardsticks against which heuristics such as Thompson sampling (TS) are measured: the gap between a policy's performance and an upper bound certifies how far the policy can be from optimal.

The conventional benchmark is the expected total reward of a clairvoyant who knows the arms' parameters, WTS(T,y)=Ey[Tmax⁡aμa(θa)]W^{TS}(T, y) = \mathbb E_y[T \max_a \mu_a(\theta_a)]WTS(T,y)=Ey​[Tmaxa​μa​(θa​)], the quantity behind every Bayesian regret bound. Min, Maglaras and Moallemi (arXiv:1902.04251v2, Management Science 2025) apply the information relaxation duality of Brown, Smith and Sun (Operations Research 2010) to the bandit: a clairvoyant who sees the whole future but pays a penalty for using it. Each penalty yields a performance bound Wz(T,y)W^z(T,y)Wz(T,y) and a randomized policy (IRS, "information relaxation sampling"); the zero-information penalty recovers TS and WTSW^{TS}WTS, the ideal penalty recovers V∗V^*V∗. The paper's Theorem 2 shows that its intermediate penalties give bounds that are provably tighter than WTSW^{TS}WTS. This mission formalizes that theorem.

Setting

Let A={1,…,K}\mathcal A = \{1, \dots, K\}A={1,…,K}, K≥1K \ge 1K≥1. Arm aaa has an unknown parameter θa\theta_aθa​; given θa\theta_aθa​, its rewards Ra,1,Ra,2,…R_{a,1}, R_{a,2}, \dotsRa,1​,Ra,2​,… are i.i.d. with law Ra(θa)\mathcal R_a(\theta_a)Ra​(θa​). The parameter has a prior Pa(ya)\mathcal P_a(y_a)Pa​(ya​) from a conjugate family indexed by a belief yay_aya​, and the Bayesian update Ua(ya,r)\mathcal U_a(y_a, r)Ua​(ya​,r) is the belief after a reward rrr: if θa∼Pa(ya)\theta_a \sim \mathcal P_a(y_a)θa​∼Pa​(ya​) then θa∣Ra,1∼Pa(Ua(ya,Ra,1))\theta_a \mid R_{a,1} \sim \mathcal P_a(\mathcal U_a(y_a, R_{a,1}))θa​∣Ra,1​∼Pa​(Ua​(ya​,Ra,1​)). The outcome ω=(θ,(Ra,n)a,n)\omega = (\theta, (R_{a,n})_{a,n})ω=(θ,(Ra,n​)a,n​) has law I(y)\mathcal I(y)I(y), under which arms are independent. Throughout, Eya∣Ra,1∣<∞\mathbb E_{y_a}|R_{a,1}| < \inftyEya​​∣Ra,1​∣<∞ for every belief.

The conditional and predictive mean rewards are μa(θa)=E[Ra,n∣θa]\mu_a(\theta_a) = \mathbb E[R_{a,n} \mid \theta_a]μa​(θa​)=E[Ra,n​∣θa​] and μˉa(ya)=Eya[μa(θa)]\bar\mu_a(y_a) = \mathbb E_{y_a}[\mu_a(\theta_a)]μˉ​a​(ya​)=Eya​​[μa​(θa​)], and the posterior predictive mean after nnn rewards of arm aaa is μ^a,n=Eya[μa(θa)∣Ra,1,…,Ra,n]\hat\mu_{a,n} = \mathbb E_{y_a}[\mu_a(\theta_a) \mid R_{a,1}, \dots, R_{a,n}]μ^​a,n​=Eya​​[μa​(θa​)∣Ra,1​,…,Ra,n​]. With NT={n∈N0K:∑ana=T}\mathcal N_T = \{n \in \mathbb N_0^K : \sum_a n_a = T\}NT​={n∈N0K​:∑a​na​=T} and Sa(n)=∑i=1nμ^a,i−1S_a(n) = \sum_{i=1}^{n} \hat\mu_{a,i-1}Sa​(n)=∑i=1n​μ^​a,i−1​, the four bounds compared are

WTS(T,y)=Ey[Tmax⁡aμa(θa)],WIRS.FH(T,y)=Ey[Tmax⁡aμ^a,T−1],W^{TS}(T,y) = \mathbb E_y\Big[T\max_a \mu_a(\theta_a)\Big], \qquad W^{IRS.FH}(T,y) = \mathbb E_y\Big[T\max_a \hat\mu_{a,T-1}\Big],WTS(T,y)=Ey​[Tamax​μa​(θa​)],WIRS.FH(T,y)=Ey​[Tamax​μ^​a,T−1​], WIRS.V-Zero(T,y)=Ey[max⁡n∈NT∑aSa(na)],WIRS.V-EMax(T,y)=Ey[max⁡a1:T∑t=1T(rt−ztIRS.V-EMax)].W^{IRS.V\text{-}Zero}(T,y) = \mathbb E_y\Big[\max_{n\in\mathcal N_T} \sum_a S_a(n_a)\Big], \qquad W^{IRS.V\text{-}EMax}(T,y) = \mathbb E_y\Big[\max_{a_{1:T}} \sum_{t=1}^T \big(r_t - z_t^{IRS.V\text{-}EMax}\big)\Big].WIRS.V-Zero(T,y)=Ey​[n∈NT​max​a∑​Sa​(na​)],WIRS.V-EMax(T,y)=Ey​[a1:T​max​t=1∑T​(rt​−ztIRS.V-EMax​)].

In the last one the clairvoyant chooses a whole action sequence a1:Ta_{1:T}a1:T​ knowing ω\omegaω, and at time ttt receives the conditional expected reward μˉat\bar\mu_{a_t}μˉ​at​​ under the current belief yt−1y_{t-1}yt−1​, minus WTS(T−t,yt)W^{TS}(T-t, y_t)WTS(T−t,yt​), plus the expectation of WTS(T−t,yt)W^{TS}(T-t, y_t)WTS(T−t,yt​) given the history Ht−1H_{t-1}Ht−1​. A supersolution is a function V^(T,y)\hat V(T, y)V^(T,y) with V^(0,y)=0\hat V(0, y) = 0V^(0,y)=0 and V^(T,y)≥Eya[Ra,1+V^(T−1,U(y,a,Ra,1))]\hat V(T, y) \ge \mathbb E_{y_a}[R_{a,1} + \hat V(T-1, \mathcal U(y, a, R_{a,1}))]V^(T,y)≥Eya​​[Ra,1​+V^(T−1,U(y,a,Ra,1​))] for all T≥1T \ge 1T≥1, yyy, aaa (Definition 2).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 25)

WTS(T,y)≥WIRS.FH(T,y)≥WIRS.V-Zero(T,y),WTS(T,y)≥WIRS.V-EMax(T,y),W^{TS}(T,y) \ge W^{IRS.FH}(T,y) \ge W^{IRS.V\text{-}Zero}(T,y), \qquad W^{TS}(T,y) \ge W^{IRS.V\text{-}EMax}(T,y),WTS(T,y)≥WIRS.FH(T,y)≥WIRS.V-Zero(T,y),WTS(T,y)≥WIRS.V-EMax(T,y),

for every horizon TTT and every belief vector yyy of every conjugate model satisfying the standing assumptions.

Milestones (Appendix D.3)

  1. WTS≥WIRS.FHW^{TS} \ge W^{IRS.FH}WTS≥WIRS.FH, (124).
  2. Lemma 1, a variant of Jensen's inequality: for non-decreasing φ\varphiφ, E[max⁡{X+φ(X),0}]≥E[max⁡{EX+φ(X),0}]\mathbb E[\max\{X+\varphi(X),0\}] \ge \mathbb E[\max\{\mathbb E X+\varphi(X),0\}]E[max{X+φ(X),0}]≥E[max{EX+φ(X),0}].
  3. Corollary 1, its version conditional on a sub-σ\sigmaσ-field H\mathcal HH.
  4. Corollary 2, the form for a maximum of affine functions (i−n)+X+Ci(i-n)^+X + C_i(i−n)+X+Ci​ with H\mathcal HH-measurable CiC_iCi​.
  5. (155): the interpolating expectations Uk,nU_{k,n}Uk,n​ of (154) decrease in nnn, with WIRS.FH=U1,0W^{IRS.FH} = U_{1,0}WIRS.FH=U1,0​, WIRS.V-Zero=UK,TW^{IRS.V\text{-}Zero} = U_{K,T}WIRS.V-Zero=UK,T​ and Uk+1,0=Uk,TU_{k+1,0} = U_{k,T}Uk+1,0​=Uk,T​.
  6. Lemma 2 (Theorem 4 of Desai, Farias and Moallemi): a supersolution V^\hat VV^ bounds the inner problem of its own penalty outcome by outcome, hence Wz^≤V^W^{\hat z} \le \hat VWz^≤V^.
  7. (176)–(180): WTSW^{TS}WTS is a supersolution.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 says that the penalties IRS.FH and IRS.V-Zero, which only require sampling a future and solving a deterministic allocation problem, produce upper bounds on V∗V^*V∗ that are never looser than the regret benchmark WTSW^{TS}WTS, and that IRS.V-EMax is too. A bound below WTSW^{TS}WTS gives a sharper certificate of suboptimality for any policy, and the paper's experiments (§5) report these bounds next to the policies' performance. The ordering also organises the paper's family of policies: the bounds move monotonically from the TS benchmark towards the optimal value.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper (Appendix D.3); it has no machine-checked proof. A formal development checks three different mechanisms: conditional Jensen for (124); a one-arm-at-a-time interpolation through Uk,nU_{k,n}Uk,n​, driven by a non-standard Jensen-type inequality (Lemma 1, Corollaries 1–2), for (57); and the supersolution argument of Desai et al. for (58). The paper's own remark (pp. 59–60) shows that the middle inequality does not follow from the general "finer information gives a weaker bound" principle of Brown et al.; formalization fixes exactly which properties of the bandit (conjugacy, independence of arms, the martingale property of μ^a,n\hat\mu_{a,n}μ^​a,n​) carry the argument.

Difficulty

The obvious route to WIRS.FH≥WIRS.V-ZeroW^{IRS.FH} \ge W^{IRS.V\text{-}Zero}WIRS.FH≥WIRS.V-Zero is to observe that IRS.FH conditions on more information (T−1T-1T−1 rewards of every arm) than IRS.V-Zero (only the history so far) and invoke monotonicity of dual bounds in the relaxation. That argument fails: the two penalties are not generated by a common function, and the paper exhibits a modified bandit (163)–(165) in which the inequality reverses. The interpolation must instead trade one arm's realized cumulative payoff for a constant per-pull payoff one pull at a time, and each step needs Corollary 2, where conditioning acts inside a maximum of affine functions; ordinary Jensen points the wrong way there.

For (58), the difficulty is that the payoff of the penalised inner problem depends on the whole outcome along an adaptively chosen action sequence; the bound must hold uniformly over all KTK^TKT sequences, which is why it is proved pathwise by backward induction rather than in expectation.

Formalization scope

Arms are Fin K (0-based) with [NeZero K]. All arms share one parameter type Θ\ThetaΘ (standard Borel, nonempty) and one belief type YYY, the disjoint unions of the per-arm ones. Rewards are a Kernel Θ ℝ per arm, priors a Kernel Y Θ per arm, both Markov. The outcome is Fin K → Θ × (ℕ → ℝ) with law the product over arms of θa∼Pa(ya)\theta_a \sim \mathcal P_a(y_a)θa​∼Pa​(ya​) followed by an i.i.d. reward sequence. The standing assumptions are one predicate: conjugacy (the update agrees a.e. with Mathlib's posterior of the reward kernel), joint measurability of each Ua\mathcal U_aUa​, and Eya∣Ra,1∣<∞\mathbb E_{y_a}|R_{a,1}| < \inftyEya​​∣Ra,1​∣<∞ for every belief, (3). μ^a,n\hat\mu_{a,n}μ^​a,n​ is the conjugate (pathwise) version μˉa(ya,n)\bar\mu_a(y_{a,n})μˉ​a​(ya,n​) of the conditional expectation (10). WIRS.FHW^{IRS.FH}WIRS.FH is defined by its closed form (33). In the penalties (26) and (168) the conditional expectations given Ht−1H_{t-1}Ht−1​ are replaced by their conjugate closed forms: E[rt∣Ht−1]=μ^at,nt−1(at)\mathbb E[r_t \mid H_{t-1}] = \hat\mu_{a_t, n_{t-1}(a_t)}E[rt​∣Ht−1​]=μ^​at​,nt−1​(at​)​, and the expectation of V^(T−t,yt)\hat V(T-t, y_t)V^(T−t,yt​) is the integral over the predictive law of the next reward. The supersolution predicate requires the expectation in (166) to exist. Lemma 1 and Corollary 1 compare lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; Corollary 1 adds joint measurability of φ\varphiφ; Corollary 2 assumes the CiC_iCi​ integrable; Lemma 2's integral form assumes the pathwise maximum integrable.

Trivializations ruled out. No expectation in a goal can silently be a junk 000: the standing integrability makes every bound an honest integral, and Lemma 1 and Corollary 1 are stated with lower integrals. WIRS.V-EMaxW^{IRS.V\text{-}EMax}WIRS.V-EMax is the penalised clairvoyant value of the penalty generated by WTSW^{TS}WTS, not WTSW^{TS}WTS itself or the closed form (41) substituted into it. The standing assumptions are satisfiable (a sorry-free check with a one-point parameter space is in the development).

A complete development needs: conjugate updating along reward sequences and the martingale property of μ^a,n\hat\mu_{a,n}μ^​a,n​ (Remark 1); measurability of θ↦⨂nRa(θ)\theta \mapsto \bigotimes_n \mathcal R_a(\theta)θ↦⨂n​Ra​(θ); independence of arms under I(y)\mathcal I(y)I(y); conditional Jensen for finite maxima. Lemma 1, Corollaries 1–2 and Lemma 2 are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions of any milestone, or of the infrastructure lemmas above, are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Min, C. Maglaras, C. C. Moallemi, Thompson Sampling with Information Relaxation Penalties, Management Science, 2025; preprint arXiv:1902.04251v2, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.04251
  • D. B. Brown, J. E. Smith, P. Sun, Information Relaxations and Duality in Stochastic Dynamic Programs, Operations Research 58(4), 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0796
  • V. V. Desai, V. F. Farias, C. C. Moallemi, Bounds for Markov Decision Processes, in F. L. Lewis and D. Liu (eds.), Reinforcement Learning and Approximate Dynamic Programming for Feedback Control, Wiley/IEEE Press, pp. 452–473, 2012 (the paper's Desai et al. 2012a; Theorem 4 there is Lemma 2 here).
  • D. Russo, B. Van Roy, Learning to Optimize via Posterior Sampling, Mathematics of Operations Research 39(4), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2014.0650
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Achieving Efficiency in Black-Box Simulation of Distribution Tails with Self-Structuring Importance Samplers: The Self-Structuring Importance Sampler Is Logarithmically EfficientResearch Paper

Motivation

Many operational risk questions ask for a small probability pu=P(L(X)≥u)p_u=P(L(X)\ge u)pu​=P(L(X)≥u): the chance that the cost LLL of a decision, evaluated at a random scenario X∈RdX\in\mathbb R^dX∈Rd, exceeds a large threshold uuu. Examples are large delays in project networks or vehicle routing, large portfolio credit losses, and failures in engineered systems. Plain Monte Carlo needs on the order of pu−1p_u^{-1}pu−1​ samples to estimate pup_upu​ to fixed relative accuracy, which is prohibitive when pup_upu​ is 10−610^{-6}10−6 or smaller. Importance sampling (IS) draws samples from a different distribution and reweights them by a likelihood ratio, but classical efficient IS schemes are built for one model at a time: they need the distribution of XXX and the structure of LLL (e.g. linearity or convexity) to solve for a good sampling distribution.

Deo and Murthy (arXiv:2102.07060v3, published in Operations Research, 2025) propose a self-structuring sampler that needs neither: it applies a fixed multiplicative stretching to ordinary samples of XXX and uses only black-box evaluations of LLL. Their main result is that this sampler is asymptotically optimal in the standard sense of logarithmic efficiency (Asmussen and Glynn 2007, Ch. 6) over a nonparametric class of light- and Weibull-type-tailed distributions and nonconvex losses.

Setting

Write R+d={x:x≥0}\mathbb R^d_+=\{x:x\ge0\}R+d​={x:x≥0} and R++d={x:x>0}\mathbb R^d_{++}=\{x:x>0\}R++d​={x:x>0} (componentwise), and ∥x∥=max⁡i∣xi∣\|x\|=\max_i|x_i|∥x∥=maxi​∣xi​∣. The random vector X=(X1,…,Xd)X=(X_1,\dots,X_d)X=(X1​,…,Xd​) has density fXf_XfX​. Its marginal cumulative hazards are Λi(x)=−log⁡P(Xi>x)\Lambda_i(x)=-\log P(X_i>x)Λi​(x)=−logP(Xi​>x), Λ(x)=(Λ1(x1),…,Λd(xd))\Lambda(x)=(\Lambda_1(x_1),\dots,\Lambda_d(x_d))Λ(x)=(Λ1​(x1​),…,Λd​(xd​)), and Y=Λ(X)Y=\Lambda(X)Y=Λ(X) is the standardized vector. Let qi=Λi←q_i=\Lambda_i^{\leftarrow}qi​=Λi←​ be the left-continuous inverse, q(y)=(q1(y1),…,qd(yd))q(y)=(q_1(y_1),\dots,q_d(y_d))q(y)=(q1​(y1​),…,qd​(yd​)), q^(t)=q(t1)/∥q(t1)∥\hat q(t)=q(t\mathbf 1)/\|q(t\mathbf 1)\|q^​(t)=q(t1)/∥q(t1)∥ and Λmin⁡(u)=min⁡iΛi(u)\Lambda_{\min}(u)=\min_i\Lambda_i(u)Λmin​(u)=mini​Λi​(u).

The standing assumptions are:

  • Assumption 2.1 on the loss: risk sets {x∈supp⁡X:L(x)≥u}\{x\in\operatorname{supp}X: L(x)\ge u\}{x∈suppX:L(x)≥u} lie in R+d\mathbb R^d_+R+d​ for large uuu, and L(nxn)/nρ→L∗(x)L(nx_n)/n^\rho\to L^*(x)L(nxn​)/nρ→L∗(x) for every xn→xx_n\to xxn​→x in R+d\mathbb R^d_+R+d​, with ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0 and L∗>0L^*>0L∗>0 somewhere on R+d\mathbb R^d_+R+d​.
  • Assumption 3.1 on the marginals: each Λi\Lambda_iΛi​ is continuous, eventually strictly increasing, and regularly varying with index αi>0\alpha_i>0αi​>0 (Λi(sx)/Λi(s)→xαi\Lambda_i(sx)/\Lambda_i(s)\to x^{\alpha_i}Λi​(sx)/Λi​(s)→xαi​).
  • Assumption 3.2 on the dependence: YYY has density p(y)e−φ(y)p(y)e^{-\varphi(y)}p(y)e−φ(y) with n−1φ(nyn)→I(y)n^{-1}\varphi(ny_n)\to I(y)n−1φ(nyn​)→I(y) and n−εlog⁡p(nyn)→0n^{-\varepsilon}\log p(ny_n)\to0n−εlogp(nyn​)→0 along every yn→y≠0y_n\to y\ne0yn​→y=0 in R+d\mathbb R^d_+R+d​.
  • Assumption 5.1: each Λi\Lambda_iΛi​ is eventually convex or concave.
  • The limit q∗=lim⁡t→∞q^(t)q^*=\lim_{t\to\infty}\hat q(t)q∗=limt→∞​q^​(t) exists.

The sampler (Algorithm 1) fixes a hyper-parameter l=l(u)l=l(u)l=l(u) and maps a sample xxx to T(x)=x (u/l)κ(x)T(x)=x\,(u/l)^{\kappa(x)}T(x)=x(u/l)κ(x), with either exponent

κ(1)(x)=1ρlog⁡(1+∣x∣)∥log⁡(1+∣x∣)∥∞orκ(2)(x)=log⁡(1+∣x∣)log⁡l.\kappa^{(1)}(x)=\frac1\rho\frac{\log(1+|x|)}{\|\log(1+|x|)\|_\infty}\qquad\text{or}\qquad \kappa^{(2)}(x)=\frac{\log(1+|x|)}{\log l}.κ(1)(x)=ρ1​∥log(1+∣x∣)∥∞​log(1+∣x∣)​orκ(2)(x)=logllog(1+∣x∣)​.

With JJJ the closed-form Jacobian of Table 1 and Z=T(X)Z=T(X)Z=T(X), the single-sample estimator is

ζ(u)=J(X)fX(Z)fX(X) I(L(Z)≥u),M2,u=E[ζ(u)2].\zeta(u)=\frac{J(X)f_X(Z)}{f_X(X)}\,\mathbb I\big(L(Z)\ge u\big),\qquad M_{2,u}=E[\zeta(u)^2].ζ(u)=fX​(X)J(X)fX​(Z)​I(L(Z)≥u),M2,u​=E[ζ(u)2].

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1 (logarithmic efficiency)

Under Assumptions 2.1, 3.1, 3.2, 5.1, existence of q∗q^*q∗, L∗(q∗x)>0L^*(q^*x)>0L∗(q∗x)>0 for some x∈R+dx\in\mathbb R^d_+x∈R+d​, and any slowly varying l(u)→∞l(u)\to\inftyl(u)→∞, for either exponent,

M2,u<∞ for large u,lim⁡u→∞log⁡M2,ulog⁡pu2=1.M_{2,u}<\infty\ \text{for large }u,\qquad \lim_{u\to\infty}\frac{\log M_{2,u}}{\log p_u^2}=1.M2,u​<∞ for large u,u→∞lim​logpu2​logM2,u​​=1.

The goal fixes neither the exponent, nor the hyper-parameter lll, nor the loss or the distribution beyond the stated assumptions.

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's proof chain (Appendix A.3 for κ(1)\kappa^{(1)}κ(1), Appendix E for κ(2)\kappa^{(2)}κ(2)):

  1. Proposition 2.1: ζ(u)\zeta(u)ζ(u) is unbiased and TTT is invertible.
  2. Lemma 3.1: the coordinates of YYY are standard exponential.
  3. Theorem 3.1: {Y/t}\{Y/t\}{Y/t} satisfies a large deviations principle with rate III.
  4. Lemma 3.2: III is continuous and homogeneous, and inf⁡yi>cI=c\inf_{y_i>c}I=cinfyi​>c​I=c.
  5. Lemma A.1: the rare event in standardized coordinates.
  6. Theorem 4.1: the tail asymptotic
log⁡pu=−Λmin⁡(u1/ρ)[I∗+o(1)],I∗=inf⁡{I(y):L∗(q∗y1/α)≥1, y≥0}.\log p_u=-\Lambda_{\min}(u^{1/\rho})\big[I^*+o(1)\big],\qquad I^*=\inf\{I(y):L^*(q^*y^{1/\alpha})\ge1,\ y\ge0\}.logpu​=−Λmin​(u1/ρ)[I∗+o(1)],I∗=inf{I(y):L∗(q∗y1/α)≥1, y≥0}.
  1. Lemmas A.4 and A.5: bounds on T−1T^{-1}T−1, and ψu=Λ∘T−1∘q\psi_u=\Lambda\circ T^{-1}\circ qψu​=Λ∘T−1∘q is o(t(u))o(t(u))o(t(u)) on compacts.
  2. Lemma A.6: M2,uM_{2,u}M2,u​ as a Laplace-type functional of Yu=Y/t(u)Y_u=Y/t(u)Yu​=Y/t(u).
  3. Lemma A.7: the density exponent au≥I+o(1)a_u\ge I+o(1)au​≥I+o(1).
  4. Lemma A.9: the rare set stays a fixed distance from the origin.
  5. Display (85): the κ(2)\kappa^{(2)}κ(2) bound on T−1T^{-1}T−1.

Significance

Theorem 4.1 gives the exponential decay rate of pup_upu​ for a broad class of nonconvex losses (piecewise affine and quadratic functions, values of mixed integer programs, neural-network feature maps) under nonparametric, copula-style dependence. Previously such asymptotics were known only for specific losses and distribution families. Theorem 5.1 shows that one simple, model-oblivious transformation attains the best possible exponential rate for the second moment, so the relative error grows more slowly than any power pu−εp_u^{-\varepsilon}pu−ε​. This supports using the sampler for value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk and chance-constrained optimization.

The results are proved in the paper's appendices (Appendices A, D.1 and E). None of them has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them would require regular variation and Potter bounds, a tail large deviations principle in Rd\mathbb R^dRd, and a Varadhan-type integral lemma along a real speed. These are general tools that are missing from Mathlib and are reusable well beyond this paper.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is to bound M2,uM_{2,u}M2,u​ by computing the likelihood ratio on the rare set. This fails because the rare set, after standardization, is described only asymptotically: Lu(x)=u−1L(q(t(u)x))L_u(x)=u^{-1}L(q(t(u)x))Lu​(x)=u−1L(q(t(u)x)) converges to fLD(x)=L∗(q∗x1/α)f_{LD}(x)=L^*(q^*x^{1/\alpha})fLD​(x)=L∗(q∗x1/α) only continuously on R++d\mathbb R^d_{++}R++d​, not uniformly. The exponent of the likelihood ratio involves the density of YYY at two different scales (t(u)pt(u)pt(u)p and ψu(t(u)p)\psi_u(t(u)p)ψu​(t(u)p)) and the hazard rates at points pulled back by T−1T^{-1}T−1. A lower bound on it must hold uniformly enough to apply a Varadhan-type lemma with a varying family of functions, while the transformed sample stays inside a region where the asymptotic density assumptions apply. The upper and lower large-deviations bounds also rely on homogeneity of III and fLDf_{LD}fLD​, which hold only for the heaviest-tailed coordinates of q∗q^*q∗.

Formalization scope

Points of Rd\mathbb R^dRd are Fin d → ℝ with the sup norm, and components are 0-based. XXX is modelled by its law μ\muμ together with a density fXf_XfX​. M2,uM_{2,u}M2,u​ is a lower Lebesgue integral and pu=μ{L≥u}p_u=\mu\{L\ge u\}pu​=μ{L≥u}; both are extended nonnegative reals, so neither +∞+\infty+∞ nor 000 is collapsed to a junk value. Logarithms of probabilities in large-deviations statements are taken in EReal, where log⁡0=−∞\log0=-\inftylog0=−∞. I∗I^*I∗ is an EReal infimum, equal to +∞+\infty+∞ over an empty set. Regular variation is the real-variable limit with an eventually positive denominator, and reuses the published definition HeavyTailNV.Tail.IsRegularlyVarying. The Jacobian is Table 1's closed form. Statements that evaluate qqq at t(u)pt(u)pt(u)p take p∈R++dp\in\mathbb R^d_{++}p∈R++d​.

The following hypotheses are added relative to the printed statements, each disclosed on its item:

  • l(u)→∞l(u)\to\inftyl(u)→∞ in Theorem 5.1 and Lemma A.7 (the paper states it in §2.2 and uses it in Lemma A.5 and Appendix D.1).
  • "L∗(q∗x)L^*(q^*x)L∗(q∗x) not identically zero" is read as positivity somewhere.
  • Measurability of LLL.
  • 0<l≤u0<l\le u0<l≤u, and l>1l>1l>1 for κ(2)\kappa^{(2)}κ(2), together with an IS support condition in Proposition 2.1 and Lemma A.6. Proposition 2.1 is false as printed without them.
  • p(nyn)>0p(ny_n)>0p(nyn​)>0 eventually inside (13).
  • d≥1d\ge1d≥1 where junk values at d=0d=0d=0 would otherwise matter.
  • In Theorem 4.1, continuity of the rate III on R+d∖{0}\mathbb R^d_+\setminus\{0\}R+d​∖{0}, which the theorem's hypothesis "the tail LDP in Theorem 3.1" carries through Lemma 3.2(a) and which the proof uses.

The following printed statements are corrected:

  • Lemma A.6 is stated without its spurious factor t(u)2dt(u)^{2d}t(u)2d.
  • Lemma A.9 is restricted to points with q(t(u)p)∈supp⁡Xq(t(u)p)\in\operatorname{supp}Xq(t(u)p)∈suppX. As printed it fails when LLL is large off the support.
  • Lemma 3.2's "I(0)=0I(0)=0I(0)=0" becomes a limit at 000, since (13) does not determine I(0)I(0)I(0).
  • Theorem 3.1 is stated with real speed ttt, which implies the printed sequence form.

Lemmas A.8 and A.10 and Corollary A.1 are not posed. Their uniform claims over all of R+d\mathbb R^d_+R+d​ depend on pointwise versions of the hazard rates and on the values of LLL off the support and off R+d\mathbb R^d_+R+d​, which the hypotheses do not control; Corollary A.1 fails as printed when XXX has negative components.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out explicitly. The goal is the limit (23) for the estimator ζ(u)\zeta(u)ζ(u) of §5.2 with Table 1's Jacobian, for every admissible lll and both exponents. It is not the bound M2,u≥pu2M_{2,u}\ge p_u^2M2,u​≥pu2​, not a statement about an unspecified IS density, and not a statement for one fixed lll. The finiteness conjunct prevents Lean's log⁡0=0\log 0=0log0=0 convention from satisfying it.

Contributions are welcome at every level. The general tools (Potter bounds, the tail LDP, a Varadhan lemma for continuously converging functions) are useful as separate developments.

Selected references

  • A. Deo, K. Murthy, Achieving Efficiency in Black-Box Simulation of Distribution Tails with Self-Structuring Importance Samplers, Operations Research, 2025; preprint arXiv:2102.07060v3, 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.07060
  • S. Asmussen, P. W. Glynn, Stochastic Simulation: Algorithms and Analysis, Springer, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-69033-9
  • L. de Haan, A. Ferreira, Extreme Value Theory: An Introduction, Springer, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-34471-3
  • A. Dembo, O. Zeitouni, Large Deviations Techniques and Applications, 2nd ed., Springer, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-5320-4
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Algorithmic Game TheoryEconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Self-Preferencing and Search Neutrality in Online Retail Platforms I: Under a Low Commission, Search Neutrality Strictly Reduces Consumer Surplus When the Two Products Are Similarly PopularResearch Paper

Motivation

Large retail platforms both host independent sellers and sell their own products, and they control the order in which products appear in search results. When the platform ranks its own product first regardless of relevance, it engages in self-preferencing. Regulators have treated this as a competition problem: the European Commission opened a second antitrust investigation into Amazon's treatment of its own retail offers in 2020 (CNBC, 2020), and search neutrality, the requirement that results be ranked by relevance alone, is the remedy most often proposed.

Zou and Zhou ask whether such a rule helps consumers once prices respond to it. Their model builds on the economics of prominence in consumer search (Armstrong, Vickers and Zhou, 2009), in which the product shown first is searched first and so enjoys a demand advantage. The answer they obtain is negative in an identifiable region: when the two competing products are similarly popular, search neutrality strictly lowers consumer surplus. This mission formalizes that result and the equilibrium analysis on which it rests.

Setting

A platform sells its own product FFF and hosts a third-party seller of a competing product TTT; marginal costs are zero. A unit mass of consumers has unit demand. A product either matches a consumer (value 111) or not (value 000).

  • A fraction α∈[0,1]\alpha\in[0,1]α∈[0,1] of consumers are of type fff: product FFF matches them with probability ρH\rho_HρH​ and TTT with probability ρL\rho_LρL​. The remaining 1−α1-\alpha1−α are of type ttt, with the probabilities reversed. Throughout, 1>ρH>ρL>01>\rho_H>\rho_L>01>ρH​>ρL​>0. The parameter α\alphaα is the popularity of FFF.
  • Prices satisfy pF,pT∈[0,1]p_F,p_T\in[0,1]pF​,pT​∈[0,1]. The platform keeps a commission rrr of the third party's revenue, so its profit is πF=pFDF+r pTDT\pi_F=p_FD_F+r\,p_TD_TπF​=pF​DF​+rpT​DT​ and the third party's is πT=(1−r)pTDT\pi_T=(1-r)p_TD_TπT​=(1−r)pT​DT​.
  • A ranking assigns each type a prominent product. Consumers see both prices, search the prominent product for free, and search the other one at a cost c∼U[0,1]c\sim U[0,1]c∼U[0,1]. This yields the per-type demands of equations (1)–(2) of the paper: for prominent product 111 and non-prominent product 222 with match probabilities ρ1,ρ2\rho_1,\rho_2ρ1​,ρ2​,
d1={ρ1(1−ρ22p1+ρ22p2),p1>p2,ρ1,p1≤p2,d2={ρ22(1−ρ1+ρ1p1−p2),p1>p2,(1−ρ1)ρ22(1−p2),p1≤p2.d_1=\begin{cases}\rho_1(1-\rho_2^2p_1+\rho_2^2p_2),&p_1>p_2,\\ \rho_1,&p_1\le p_2,\end{cases}\qquad d_2=\begin{cases}\rho_2^2(1-\rho_1+\rho_1p_1-p_2),&p_1>p_2,\\ (1-\rho_1)\rho_2^2(1-p_2),&p_1\le p_2.\end{cases}d1​={ρ1​(1−ρ22​p1​+ρ22​p2​),ρ1​,​p1​>p2​,p1​≤p2​,​d2​={ρ22​(1−ρ1​+ρ1​p1​−p2​),(1−ρ1​)ρ22​(1−p2​),​p1​>p2​,p1​≤p2​.​
  • Without search neutrality (NS), the sellers set prices simultaneously, and then the platform chooses, for each type, the prominent product that maximizes its expected profit from that consumer. An equilibrium is a price pair together with a ranking rule that is optimal at every price pair, such that no seller gains from a price deviation (anticipating the ranking it induces).
  • With search neutrality (S), FFF is prominent for type fff and TTT for type ttt; an equilibrium is a Nash equilibrium in prices.
  • Consumer surplus CSCSCS is the expected surplus of a consumer, averaged over the search cost ccc and the two types.
  • Condition 1 is the low-commission region r≤0.64 ρL/ρHr\le0.64\,\rho_L/\rho_Hr≤0.64ρL​/ρH​ and ρL≤0.975\rho_L\le0.975ρL​≤0.975, assumed throughout §4.1 of the paper.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3(1)

Under Condition 1 there are thresholds α‾,αˉ\underline\alpha,\bar\alphaα​,αˉ, depending only on (ρH,ρL,r)(\rho_H,\rho_L,r)(ρH​,ρL​,r), with

α‾<α2S=ρL2(1−rρH)ρL2(1−rρH)+ρH<12<α3S=ρHρH+ρL2<αˉ,\underline\alpha<\alpha_2^S=\frac{\rho_L^2(1-r\rho_H)}{\rho_L^2(1-r\rho_H)+\rho_H}<\frac12<\alpha_3^S=\frac{\rho_H}{\rho_H+\rho_L^2}<\bar\alpha,α​<α2S​=ρL2​(1−rρH​)+ρH​ρL2​(1−rρH​)​<21​<α3S​=ρH​+ρL2​ρH​​<αˉ,

such that for every α∈[0,1]∩(α‾,αˉ)\alpha\in[0,1]\cap(\underline\alpha,\bar\alpha)α∈[0,1]∩(α​,αˉ), consumer surplus in every equilibrium with search neutrality is strictly smaller than in every equilibrium without it:

CSS<CSNS.CS^{S}<CS^{NS}.CSS<CSNS.

Milestones

The equilibria without neutrality: the price order pT≤pFp_T\le p_FpT​≤pF​ when FFF is prominent for all (Appendix, p. 42); the closed-form equilibrium of that pricing game (cases (A)–(B), pp. 42–43); the statement of Lemma A1 (p. 42); Proposition 1 (p. 16) and the uniqueness claim before it. The equilibria with neutrality: the price order by α≶12\alpha\lessgtr\frac12α≶21​ (pp. 44–45); cases (A2), (A3)/(B3) and (B2) (pp. 45–46); Proposition 2 (pp. 17–18). The two consumer-surplus displays (pp. 43–44 and 46). Proposition 3(2) and Corollary 1 are included as companion statements.

Significance

The result. Proposition 3(1) shows that a relevance-based ranking rule can backfire. Under self-preferencing the third-party product is never prominent, so its seller prices low to invite search, and this disciplines the platform's own price. Under neutrality each seller is prominent for the consumers who like its product best, and for similarly popular products both sellers charge the maximal price 111; on [α2S,α3S][\alpha_2^S,\alpha_3^S][α2S​,α3S​] consumer surplus with neutrality is exactly zero. The goal makes this precise and shows that the harmful region strictly contains that interval. It is the paper's central short-term finding and the basis of its policy discussion.

Formalizing it. No part of this analysis is machine-checked anywhere, and the platform has no model of consumer search with prominence. The source file contains the equilibrium derivations of §4.1 in its Appendix, but the proofs of Propositions 1–3 and of Lemma A1 are in an online appendix that is not part of the source; a formal proof would supply them. Several of the Appendix's closed forms are misprinted (the interior prices of cases (A1) and (B1), the thresholds α1S\alpha_1^Sα1S​ and α4S\alpha_4^Sα4S​), and the threshold α1NS\alpha_1^{NS}α1NS​ misclassifies the boundary α=1\alpha=1α=1 when ρL>2/(3−r)\rho_L>\sqrt{2/(3-r)}ρL​>2/(3−r)​; the formal statements fix what is actually true.

Difficulty

The profits are piecewise quadratic with a kink at pF=pTp_F=p_TpF​=pT​, so first-order conditions do not characterize equilibria: every candidate must be checked against global deviations across the kink. Without neutrality, a deviation can also change the platform's ranking, so the deviating seller faces a different demand system; this is the content of Lemma A1 and the reason Condition 1 is needed. The obvious argument for the goal, "consumer surplus with neutrality is zero on [α2S,α3S][\alpha_2^S,\alpha_3^S][α2S​,α3S​] and positive without it", proves only the closed interval. The strict extension to (α‾,αˉ)(\underline\alpha,\bar\alpha)(α​,αˉ) requires controlling the neutral equilibrium just outside that interval, in the regions (A2) and (B2), where it is no longer at the corner.

Formalization scope

  • Parameters. ρH,ρL,r,α\rho_H,\rho_L,r,\alphaρH​,ρL​,r,α are real numbers with 0<ρL<ρH<10<\rho_L<\rho_H<10<ρL​<ρH​<1, 0≤r≤10\le r\le10≤r≤1 (the paper never states a range for rrr; Condition 1 forces r<0.64r<0.64r<0.64) and α∈[0,1]\alpha\in[0,1]α∈[0,1]. Condition 1 is the numbered form with "≤\le≤" (p. 15); the Appendix restates it with "<<<".
  • Prices and deviations are restricted to [0,1][0,1][0,1].
  • Demands are the paper's equations (1)–(2), aggregated over types for any ranking.
  • The ranking without neutrality is a rule from price pairs to rankings that maximizes the platform's per-consumer profit for each type at every price pair, ties broken arbitrarily. The equilibrium is subgame perfect: deviations are evaluated at the ranking the rule selects at the deviated prices.
  • Consumer surplus is ∑kNk∫01CSk(c) dc\sum_k N_k\int_0^1 CS_k(c)\,dc∑k​Nk​∫01​CSk​(c)dc with the per-consumer surplus written for an arbitrary ranking; the closed-form displays are theorems, not definitions.
  • "The equilibrium" is read as "every equilibrium"; existence is a separate conjunct (Propositions 1–2), so the goal is not vacuous.
  • Thresholds printed incorrectly in the Appendix (α1S\alpha_1^Sα1S​, α4S\alpha_4^Sα4S​) are existential; α1NS\alpha_1^{NS}α1NS​, α2S\alpha_2^Sα2S​, α3S\alpha_3^Sα3S​ and the closed-form prices without neutrality are defined as printed. In Proposition 1, the corner α=1\alpha=1α=1 with ρL>2/(3−r)\rho_L>\sqrt{2/(3-r)}ρL​>2/(3−r)​ is excluded from the constant region.
  • A formalization in which the ranking rule is free or optimal only at the equilibrium prices, in which consumer surplus is defined by its closed form, or in which the thresholds may depend on α\alphaα or collapse to the interval [α2S,α3S][\alpha_2^S,\alpha_3^S][α2S​,α3S​] would trivialize the goal; the statements rule each of these out.

A complete development needs elementary real analysis only: piecewise quadratic optimization on [0,1][0,1][0,1], the integral ∫01(a−c)+dc=a2/2\int_0^1(a-c)^+dc=a^2/2∫01​(a−c)+dc=a2/2, and continuity of the neutral equilibrium in α\alphaα. The model definitions are shared, with the same names, with the companion mission on equal popularity and the commission rate. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are proofs of Lemma A1 and of uniqueness, whose arguments are not in the source.

Selected references

  • T. Zou and B. Zhou, Self-Preferencing and Search Neutrality in Online Retail Platforms, Management Science (authors' manuscript), 2024. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01795
  • M. Armstrong, J. Vickers and J. Zhou, Prominence and Consumer Search, RAND Journal of Economics 40(2), 209–233, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1756-2171.2009.00062.x
  • S. Amaro, EU says Amazon breached antitrust rules, opens second investigation into its e-commerce business, CNBC, 2020. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/10/eu-hits-amazon-with-antitrust-charges-for-distorting-competition.html
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Control TheoryOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Scheduling in the High-Uncertainty Heavy Traffic Regime: The Value of the Scheduling Game Converges to the HJB Solution at ZeroResearch Paper

Motivation

Heavy-traffic analysis is the standard tool for scheduling queues whose servers are almost always busy: after diffusion scaling, a multiclass queue is approximated by a reflected Brownian motion, and asymptotically optimal policies are read off a limiting control problem. Classical results of this kind, such as the asymptotic optimality of the cµ rule (serve the class with the largest holding cost times service rate first; van Mieghem, 1995), assume that the job-size distributions are known.

In practice the first moments of service times are usually estimated well, while their variability is not. Atar, Castiel and Shadmi study a high-uncertainty regime: the means of the job-size distributions are pinned down to within O(n−1/2)O(n^{-1/2})O(n−1/2), but their variances are uncertain at order one, and an adversary chooses them job by job with full knowledge of the past. The scheduler wants to minimize, and the adversary to maximize, a discounted holding cost. The paper solves this game asymptotically: the nonpreemptive cµ policy is asymptotically optimal against every adversary, and the value of the game converges to the value at 000 of a one-dimensional Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation.

Setting

There are LLL job types and one server. In the nnn-th system one job of each type arrives at each time k/nk/nk/n, k=1,2,…k=1,2,\dotsk=1,2,…, and the server works at rate nnn, so that a job of size xxx occupies it for x/nx/nx/n time units. The system starts empty.

Adversary. For each nnn and type ℓ\ellℓ an uncertainty class Πℓn\Pi^{\ell n}Πℓn, a nonempty closed set of probability distributions on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), is given. At each epoch k/nk/nk/n the adversary chooses πkℓn∈Πℓn\pi^{\ell n}_k\in\Pi^{\ell n}πkℓn​∈Πℓn for every ℓ\ellℓ, based on the past job sizes, and the job sizes JkℓnJ^{\ell n}_kJkℓn​ are then drawn independently across types from these distributions. The set of such controls is An\mathcal A^nAn.

Scheduler. The scheduler chooses the cumulative effort BtℓnB^{\ell n}_tBtℓn​ devoted to each type, an LLL-dimensional Lipschitz path whose increments over [s,t][s,t][s,t] lie in (t−s)⋅{x∈[0,1]L:∑ℓxℓ≤1}(t-s)\cdot\{x\in[0,1]^L:\sum_\ell x_\ell\le 1\}(t−s)⋅{x∈[0,1]L:∑ℓ​xℓ​≤1}. An admissible strategy βn∈Bn\beta^n\in\mathbb B^nβn∈Bn is a measurable, non-anticipating, work-conserving map from the adversary's control path to such an effort path that never serves more work than has arrived.

Cost and value. With Atℓn=∑k≤ntJkℓnA^{\ell n}_t=\sum_{k\le nt}J^{\ell n}_kAtℓn​=∑k≤nt​Jkℓn​, the workload is Wtℓn=Atℓn−nBtℓnW^{\ell n}_t=A^{\ell n}_t-nB^{\ell n}_tWtℓn​=Atℓn​−nBtℓn​, the queue length QtℓnQ^{\ell n}_tQtℓn​ is the number of arrived type-ℓ\ellℓ jobs not yet completed, and hats denote scaling by n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2. For holding costs hℓ>0h^\ell>0hℓ>0,

Cn(βn(an),an)=E[∫0∞e−t h⋅Q^tn dt],Vn=inf⁡βn∈Bnsup⁡an∈AnCn(βn(an),an).C^n(\beta^n(a^n),a^n)=\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^\infty e^{-t}\,h\cdot\hat Q^n_t\,dt\Big],\qquad V^n=\inf_{\beta^n\in\mathbb B^n}\sup_{a^n\in\mathcal A^n}C^n(\beta^n(a^n),a^n).Cn(βn(an),an)=E[∫0∞​e−th⋅Q^​tn​dt],Vn=βn∈Bninf​an∈Ansup​Cn(βn(an),an).

Assumptions. With ξπ\xi^\piξπ the mean and qπq^\piqπ half the variance of π\piπ, and bπℓn=n1/2(ξπ−1/μℓ)b^{\pi\ell n}=n^{1/2}(\xi^\pi-1/\mu^\ell)bπℓn=n1/2(ξπ−1/μℓ), the sets Kℓn={(bπℓn,qπ):π∈Πℓn}K^{\ell n}=\{(b^{\pi\ell n},q^\pi):\pi\in\Pi^{\ell n}\}Kℓn={(bπℓn,qπ):π∈Πℓn} converge in the Hausdorff distance to compact sets Kℓ⊂R×(0,∞)K^\ell\subset\mathbb R\times(0,\infty)Kℓ⊂R×(0,∞); fourth moments are uniformly bounded; ∑ℓ1/μℓ=1\sum_\ell 1/\mu^\ell=1∑ℓ​1/μℓ=1 (heavy traffic); and types are labelled so that h1μ1≤⋯≤hLμLh^1\mu^1\le\dots\le h^L\mu^Lh1μ1≤⋯≤hLμL, with h1μ1=1h^1\mu^1=1h1μ1=1.

HJB equation. With Hℓ(v1,v2)=max⁡(b,q)∈ch(Kℓ)(bv1+qv2)H^\ell(v_1,v_2)=\max_{(b,q)\in\mathrm{ch}(K^\ell)}(bv_1+qv_2)Hℓ(v1​,v2​)=max(b,q)∈ch(Kℓ)​(bv1​+qv2​),

∑ℓ=1LHℓ(u′(w),u′′(w))−u(w)+w=0,w≥0,u′(0)=0,lim sup⁡w→∞∣u(w)∣/w<∞.\sum_{\ell=1}^L H^\ell(u'(w),u''(w))-u(w)+w=0,\quad w\ge0,\qquad u'(0)=0,\quad \limsup_{w\to\infty}|u(w)|/w<\infty .ℓ=1∑L​Hℓ(u′(w),u′′(w))−u(w)+w=0,w≥0,u′(0)=0,w→∞limsup​∣u(w)∣/w<∞.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.1

Vn⟶u(0)(n→∞),V^n\longrightarrow u(0)\qquad(n\to\infty),Vn⟶u(0)(n→∞),

for the classical solution uuu of the HJB equation. The paper states Vn→V(0)=u(0)V^n\to\mathsf V(0)=u(0)Vn→V(0)=u(0) with V\mathsf VV the value of a martingale control problem; the goal uses the u(0)u(0)u(0) form, which leaves the martingale problem out of the statement.

Milestones

  • β*ⁿ ∈ 𝔹ⁿ: the nonpreemptive cµ strategy is admissible.
  • Lemma 2: the total workload does not depend on the strategy.
  • Lemma 3: second moments of the scaled workload and queue length grow at most like (t+1)2(t+1)^2(t+1)2, uniformly in nnn, the control and the strategy.
  • Lemma 4: Q^ℓn−μℓW^ℓn→0\hat Q^{\ell n}-\mu^\ell\hat W^{\ell n}\to0Q^​ℓn−μℓW^ℓn→0 uniformly in probability over strategies (the snapshot principle).
  • Lemma 5: under the cµ policy the workload of types 2,…,L2,\dots,L2,…,L vanishes.
  • Theorem 1: inf⁡βnCn(βn(an),an)−Cn(β∗n(an),an)→0\inf_{\beta^n}C^n(\beta^n(a^n),a^n)-C^n(\beta^{*n}(a^n),a^n)\to0infβn​Cn(βn(an),an)−Cn(β∗n(an),an)→0 for every adversary.
  • Proposition 1.1: the HJB equation has a unique classical solution. Proposition 1.3: it is nonnegative, non-decreasing and convex.
  • (47): lim sup⁡nCn(β∗n(an),an)≤u(0)\limsup_nC^n(\beta^{*n}(a^n),a^n)\le u(0)limsupn​Cn(β∗n(an),an)≤u(0) for every control sequence.
  • Theorem 2.2: measurable selectors ψℓn\psi^{\ell n}ψℓn attaining the prelimit Hamiltonian.
  • (55): for the feedback control πkℓn=ψℓn(Wk−1n)\pi^{\ell n}_k=\psi^{\ell n}(\mathsf W^n_{k-1})πkℓn​=ψℓn(Wk−1n​), u(0)≤lim inf⁡nCn(β∗n(a∗n),a∗n)u(0)\le\liminf_nC^n(\beta^{*n}(a^{*n}),a^{*n})u(0)≤liminfn​Cn(β∗n(a∗n),a∗n).

Significance

The result gives the first-order asymptotics of a scheduling game with model uncertainty: the scheduler loses nothing by ignoring the adversary and using the cµ rule, and the adversary's best response is a state-feedback choice of drift and variance determined by u′u'u′ and u′′u''u′′. Theorem 1 is a robustness statement for one of the most widely used scheduling rules; Theorem 2 reduces a game on path space to a scalar nonlinear ODE.

The paper's proofs are complete, so the remaining work is formalization. No part of this result, and none of its objects (heavy-traffic queues with adversarial service distributions, the nonpreemptive cµ policy as a map on path space, the HJB equation of a reflected controlled diffusion), has a known machine-checked statement or proof.

Difficulty

The statement is a limit of a real sequence, but each term is an infimum over measurable, causal, work-conserving maps on path space of a supremum over feedback choices of distributions. The proofs (§§4–7 and the appendix) use uniform C-tightness of prelimit processes, weak convergence in D[0,∞)D[0,\infty)D[0,∞), the existence theory for fully nonlinear uniformly elliptic equations (Gilbarg–Trudinger, Thm 17.18), martingale characterizations of limits (Jacod–Shiryaev, Cor. VI.6.30; Karatzas–Shreve, Thm 5.5.15), measurable selection (Budhiraja–Dupuis, Lemma 8.10), and Taylor expansion of uuu along the prelimit workload. The obvious route through the uncontrolled diffusion limit fails because the adversary's variance choice is state dependent, so no single limiting Brownian motion describes all adversaries; the limit is a control problem, not a process.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in the namespace HighUncertHT.Game. Types are Fin L, 0-based (the paper's type 1 is index 0). Distributions are ProbabilityMeasure ℝ with no mass on (−∞,0)(-\infty,0)(−∞,0), with the weak topology. Systems are indexed by n≥1n\ge1n≥1; the class at n=0n=0n=0 is required to satisfy the same conditions so that control sequences indexed by N\mathbb NN exist. Costs and values are in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] (lower Lebesgue integrals), sup norms are in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], the Hausdorff distance is the extended one, and derivatives of uuu are one-sided on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞).

An adversary control is encoded by its feedback map from past job sizes to distributions and the measurable Markov kernel it induces; its law is the Ionescu–Tulcea trajectory measure. By (5), the Doob–Dynkin lemma and (7), this has the same laws, hence the same costs, as the paper's An\mathcal A^nAn. Strategies are measurable for the product σ-algebras. The cµ strategy β∗n\beta^{*n}β∗n is defined explicitly by an event recursion over service decisions.

The standing assumptions (Assumptions 1–2, labelling (14), h1μ1=1h^1\mu^1=1h1μ1=1) are fields of the Setting and hold in every statement. Corrected printed slips: the priority rule serves the highest index (p. 9 prints "lowest", contradicting the cµ rule and Lemma 5); the departure count is capped at the number of arrived jobs (p. 6); "→ 0 in probability" for processes is read as convergence of the sup norm on compact intervals (Lemma 5); (55) is stated for the control (61), not (15).

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: Bn\mathbb B^nBn is nonempty because β∗n∈Bn\beta^{*n}\in\mathbb B^nβ∗n∈Bn is a milestone; the HJB has a classical solution (Proposition 1.1), so the goal is not vacuous; no expectation is a Bochner integral that could vanish for non-integrable integrands; u′u'u′ is not a junk deriv; and (55) asserts that its feedback control exists.

Needed infrastructure: diffusion-scaled processes and their tightness in D[0,∞)D[0,\infty)D[0,∞), the one-dimensional Skorokhod map and its Lipschitz property, martingale estimates for sums of conditionally centred job sizes, and the existence theory for the HJB equation. The Skorokhod map, the queue primitives and the cµ policy are reusable for other heavy-traffic missions. Contributions on any milestone, or on general lemmas they need, are welcome. Not included: Lemmas 1, 6, 7, 8, Proposition 1.2, Proposition 2, Theorem 2.3 and the martingale control problem.

Selected references

  • R. Atar, E. Castiel, Y. Shadmi, Scheduling in the High Uncertainty Heavy Traffic Regime, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2025; preprint arXiv:2204.05733v1, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.05733v1
  • J. A. van Mieghem, Dynamic scheduling with convex delay costs: the generalized cμ rule, Annals of Applied Probability 5(3), 1995. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177004702
  • M. I. Reiman, Some diffusion approximations with state space collapse, in Modelling and Performance Evaluation Methodology, Springer LNCIS 60, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0005161
  • D. Gilbarg, N. S. Trudinger, Elliptic Partial Differential Equations of Second Order, Springer, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61798-0
  • A. Budhiraja, P. Dupuis, Analysis and Approximation of Rare Events, Springer, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-9579-0
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Learning and Balancing Unknown Loads in Large-Scale Systems I: The Refined Learning Scheme Settles the Threshold at mΔ and Balances the Load on (m, Δ)-Bounded IntervalsResearch Paper

Motivation

In adaptive video streaming and online gaming, tasks are dispatched to one of nnn identical server pools; all tasks in a pool are served in parallel, so a task's duration does not depend on the load, but its quality of service does. The total number of tasks then does not depend on how tasks are dispatched (the pools together form an infinite-server system), and the relevant objective is a balanced distribution of tasks over the pools: every Schur-concave utility of the occupancy vector, including the α\alphaα-fair utilities, rewards balance (Goldsztajn, Borst & van Leeuwaarden 2024, §1). Join the Shortest Queue is optimal for this purpose but needs the exact occupancy of every pool.

A threshold dispatching rule needs much less. With an integer Δ≥1\Delta\ge1Δ≥1 and a threshold ℓn\ell_nℓn​, it keeps every pool between ℓn\ell_nℓn​ and hn:=ℓn+Δh_n:=\ell_n+\Deltahn​:=ℓn​+Δ tasks whenever it can. Choosing ℓn\ell_nℓn​ well requires the offered load ρ=λ/μ\rho=\lambda/\muρ=λ/μ, which in practice is unknown and varies in time. The refined learning scheme of Goldsztajn, Borst and van Leeuwaarden adjusts ℓn\ell_nℓn​ online, in steps of Δ\DeltaΔ, using the same coarse state information as the dispatcher. This mission formalizes their main result on that scheme (Theorem 2 of arXiv:2012.10142v3): along time intervals where the load is suitably bounded, the threshold settles at the right value and the load becomes balanced.

Timeline. The threshold rule with Δ=1\Delta=1Δ=1 and the fixed threshold ⌊ρ⌋\lfloor\rho\rfloor⌊ρ⌋ was shown to have the same fluid and diffusion limits as Join the Shortest Queue for constant arrival rates and exponential service (Goldsztajn et al., INFORMS Journal on Computing, 2022). The present paper (arXiv 2020, revised 2024; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2025) removes the knowledge of ρ\rhoρ, allows a time-varying arrival rate, and proves almost-sure statements about the learned threshold.

Setting

Fix a horizon T>0T>0T>0, a measurable arrival-rate function λ:[0,T]→[0,C]\lambda:[0,T]\to[0,C]λ:[0,T]→[0,C], a service rate μ>0\mu>0μ>0 and an integer Δ≥1\Delta\ge1Δ≥1. The system with nnn pools receives tasks at rate nλ(t)n\lambda(t)nλ(t); service times are exponential with rate μ\muμ. The occupancy state qn(t)=(qn(t,i))i≥0q_n(t)=(q_n(t,i))_{i\ge0}qn​(t)=(qn​(t,i))i≥0​ records the fraction qn(t,i)q_n(t,i)qn​(t,i) of pools with at least iii tasks, so it lies in

Q={q∈[0,1]N:q(i+1)≤q(i)≤q(0)=1}.Q=\{q\in[0,1]^{\mathbb N}: q(i+1)\le q(i)\le q(0)=1\}.Q={q∈[0,1]N:q(i+1)≤q(i)≤q(0)=1}.

The threshold ℓn(t)\ell_n(t)ℓn​(t) is a nonnegative multiple of Δ\DeltaΔ. An arriving task goes to a pool, chosen uniformly at random, with fewer than ℓn\ell_nℓn​ tasks if there is one; otherwise to one with fewer than hnh_nhn​ tasks if there is one; otherwise to any pool. The refined learning scheme with parameters αn∈(0,1)\alpha_n\in(0,1)αn​∈(0,1) acts at arrivals: if, right before the arrival, the fraction of pools with at least ℓn\ell_nℓn​ tasks is at most αn\alpha_nαn​, the threshold drops by Δ\DeltaΔ; if all pools have at least ℓn\ell_nℓn​ tasks and at least n−1n-1n−1 have at least hnh_nhn​, it rises by Δ\DeltaΔ.

All systems are built on one probability space from independent unit-rate Poisson processes Ni\mathcal N_iNi​, i.i.d. uniform selection variables UjU_jUj​, and random initial conditions with qn(0)→q(0)q_n(0)\to q(0)qn​(0)→q(0) almost surely, qn(0,B+1)=0q_n(0,B+1)=0qn​(0,B+1)=0 and ℓn(0)≤B\ell_n(0)\le Bℓn​(0)≤B. The paths (qn,ℓn)(q_n,\ell_n)(qn​,ℓn​) are the solutions of the implicit equations (9a)–(9b): arrivals follow Nnλ(t)=N0(n∫0tλ)\mathcal N^\lambda_n(t)=\mathcal N_0(n\int_0^t\lambda)Nnλ​(t)=N0​(n∫0t​λ) and are routed by the UjU_jUj​; departures from pools with iii tasks follow Ni\mathcal N_iNi​ run at the clock n∫0tμi[qn(s,i)−qn(s,i+1)]dsn\int_0^t\mu i[q_n(s,i)-q_n(s,i+1)]dsn∫0t​μi[qn​(s,i)−qn​(s,i+1)]ds.

The fluid total mass is u(t)=u(0)e−μt+∫0tρ(s)μe−μ(t−s)dsu(t)=u(0)e^{-\mu t}+\int_0^t\rho(s)\mu e^{-\mu(t-s)}dsu(t)=u(0)e−μt+∫0t​ρ(s)μe−μ(t−s)ds with u(0)=∑i≥1q(0,i)u(0)=\sum_{i\ge1}q(0,i)u(0)=∑i≥1​q(0,i). On an interval [a,b]⊂[0,T][a,b]\subset[0,T][a,b]⊂[0,T] let ρmin⁡,ρmax⁡\rho_{\min},\rho_{\max}ρmin​,ρmax​ be the infimum and supremum of ρ\rhoρ. The load is (m,Δ)(m,\Delta)(m,Δ)-bounded on [a,b][a,b][a,b] (Definition 1) if mΔ<ρmin⁡≤ρmax⁡<(m+1)Δm\Delta<\rho_{\min}\le\rho_{\max}<(m+1)\DeltamΔ<ρmin​≤ρmax​<(m+1)Δ and b−ab-ab−a exceeds an explicit constant σ(a,b,m,Δ)\sigma(a,b,m,\Delta)σ(a,b,m,Δ) built from log⁡ρmin⁡ρmin⁡−mΔ\log\frac{\rho_{\min}}{\rho_{\min}-m\Delta}logρmin​−mΔρmin​​ and [log⁡u(a)−ρmax⁡(m+1)Δ−ρmax⁡]+\big[\log\frac{u(a)-\rho_{\max}}{(m+1)\Delta-\rho_{\max}}\big]^+[log(m+1)Δ−ρmax​u(a)−ρmax​​]+.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2

Assume αn→1\alpha_n\to1αn​→1 and lim inf⁡nnγ0(1−αn)>0\liminf_n n^{\gamma_0}(1-\alpha_n)>0liminfn​nγ0​(1−αn​)>0 for some γ0∈(0,1/2)\gamma_0\in(0,1/2)γ0​∈(0,1/2), the load is (m,Δ)(m,\Delta)(m,Δ)-bounded on [a,b][a,b][a,b], and σ(a,b,m,Δ)<σ<b−a\sigma(a,b,m,\Delta)<\sigma<b-aσ(a,b,m,Δ)<σ<b−a. Then almost surely

lim⁡n→∞sup⁡t∈[a+σ,b]∣ℓn(t)−mΔ∣=0,lim⁡n→∞sup⁡t∈[a+σ,b]nγ∣1−qn(t,i)∣=0  (i≤mΔ, γ∈[0,12)),\lim_{n\to\infty}\sup_{t\in[a+\sigma,b]}|\ell_n(t)-m\Delta|=0,\qquad \lim_{n\to\infty}\sup_{t\in[a+\sigma,b]}n^{\gamma}|1-q_n(t,i)|=0\ \ (i\le m\Delta,\ \gamma\in[0,\tfrac12)),n→∞lim​t∈[a+σ,b]sup​∣ℓn​(t)−mΔ∣=0,n→∞lim​t∈[a+σ,b]sup​nγ∣1−qn​(t,i)∣=0  (i≤mΔ, γ∈[0,21​)), lim sup⁡n→∞sup⁡t∈[a+σ,b]∑i>(m+1)Δqn(t,i) eμ[t−(a+σ)]≤u(a+σ).\limsup_{n\to\infty}\sup_{t\in[a+\sigma,b]}\sum_{i>(m+1)\Delta}q_n(t,i)\,e^{\mu[t-(a+\sigma)]}\le u(a+\sigma).n→∞limsup​t∈[a+σ,b]sup​i>(m+1)Δ∑​qn​(t,i)eμ[t−(a+σ)]≤u(a+σ).

Milestones

In the order of the proof: well-posedness of (9a)–(9b) (§5.1.1); Lemmas 21 and 22 and Proposition 4 (relative compactness); Lemmas 5 and 6 and Proposition 7 (the set ΩT\Omega_TΩT​ of nice sample paths); Proposition 8 (un→uu_n\to uun​→u uniformly); Proposition 9 (decay of tail masses below the threshold); Proposition 10 (the threshold eventually stays at most mΔm\DeltamΔ after a+σbda+\sigma_{\mathrm{bd}}a+σbd​); Corollary 11 (the bound (6c)); Lemmas 12 and 13 (the threshold locks at mΔm\DeltamΔ).

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 shows that a scheme using only two bits of state per arrival finds the balancing threshold mΔm\DeltamΔ without knowing ρ\rhoρ, within the explicit time σ(a,b,m,Δ)\sigma(a,b,m,\Delta)σ(a,b,m,Δ), which is tight for an initially empty system with constant load. It quantifies balance: the fraction of pools with fewer than mΔm\DeltamΔ tasks is o(n−γ)o(n^{-\gamma})o(n−γ) for every γ<1/2\gamma<1/2γ<1/2, and the mass beyond column (m+1)Δ(m+1)\Delta(m+1)Δ decays exponentially. Conditions (5) are sharp in kind: αn→1\alpha_n\to1αn​→1 prevents settling too high, and the rate n−γ0n^{-\gamma_0}n−γ0​ stops O(n)O(\sqrt n)O(n​) fluctuations from pushing the threshold down.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open mathematically. Nothing of it is machine-checked. A formal proof would add an almost-sure coupled construction of a many-server Markov process on Poisson primitives, a rate-n−γn^{-\gamma}n−γ functional strong law for the Poisson process, and a pathwise relative-compactness argument in the uniform topology. None of these is in Mathlib.

Difficulty

The usual fluid-limit route fails here. The learning scheme reacts to excursions of the occupancy process of vanishing size: a threshold increase needs nqn(hn)≥n−1n q_n(h_n)\ge n-1nqn​(hn​)≥n−1, a decrease qn(ℓn)≤αnq_n(\ell_n)\le\alpha_nqn​(ℓn​)≤αn​ with αn→1\alpha_n\to1αn​→1. So the threshold is not a continuous function of the fluid state, and limits of (qn,ℓn)(q_n,\ell_n)(qn​,ℓn​) need not satisfy any closed ODE. The natural first idea, deriving a limiting ODE for (q,ℓ)(q,\ell)(q,ℓ) jointly and studying its equilibria, fails for exactly this reason: whether the threshold moves is decided by fluctuations of order n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2 around the fluid path, which a law of large numbers does not see. The statements must therefore hold almost surely and uniformly in time for the coupled sequence, not in law.

Formalization scope

  • Model. UnknownLoads.Refined.LoadData holds T,λ,C,μ,ΔT,\lambda,C,\mu,\DeltaT,λ,C,μ,Δ (with λ\lambdaλ measurable, an assumption the paper uses tacitly). Primitives holds the Poisson processes (the published BesbesZeevi.Parametric.PoissonProcess, independent as a family), the uniform UjU_jUj​, the initial conditions, and the independence of the three families. Any probability space carrying them is allowed; completion is immaterial for almost-sure statements.
  • Initial conditions are random and satisfy, almost surely, qn(0)∈Qq_n(0)\in Qqn​(0)∈Q, nqn(0,i)∈Nnq_n(0,i)\in\mathbb Nnqn​(0,i)∈N, ℓn(0)∈ΔN\ell_n(0)\in\Delta\mathbb Nℓn​(0)∈ΔN, qn(0,B+1)=0q_n(0,B+1)=0qn​(0,B+1)=0, ℓn(0)≤B\ell_n(0)\le Bℓn​(0)≤B, and qn(0)→q(0)q_n(0)\to q(0)qn​(0)→q(0) coordinatewise (the form of (2) for exponential service).
  • The processes are given in System with the hypothesis that, almost surely, for every n≥1n\ge1n≥1, (qn,ℓn)(q_n,\ell_n)(qn​,ℓn​) is a càdlàg, QQQ-valued solution of (9a)–(9b) on [0,T][0,T][0,T]. Left limits are Function.leftLim, and τn,k=inf⁡{t≥0:Nnλ(t)≥k}\tau_{n,k}=\inf\{t\ge0:\mathcal N^\lambda_n(t)\ge k\}τn,k​=inf{t≥0:Nnλ​(t)≥k}. The well-posedness milestone states that such solutions exist and are unique almost surely, so System is not vacuous.
  • ΩT\Omega_TΩT​ is the predicate IsNicePath B_T ω. It holds the equations at ω\omegaω, simple events (unit jumps, no coincidences) and the initial conditions at ω\omegaω, Proposition 4's property, (11) and (12a)–(12c). Proposition 7 asserts it almost surely; "for each ω∈ΩT\omega\in\Omega_Tω∈ΩT​" becomes "for every BT,ωB_T,\omegaBT​,ω with IsNicePath B_T ω".
  • Conventions. Time is real, with conditions on [0,T][0,T][0,T]. lim⁡nsup⁡t(⋅)=0\lim_n\sup_t(\cdot)=0limn​supt​(⋅)=0 is written in ε\varepsilonε–nnn form. Relative compactness in (DRN[0,T],ϱ)(D_{\mathbb R^{\mathbb N}}[0,T],\varrho)(DRN​[0,T],ϱ) is coordinatewise uniform convergence along sub-subsequences. Subsequences are StrictMono maps. Tail sums in inequalities ((6c), Corollary 11) are in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; unu_nun​ and vnv_nvn​ in limit statements are real series, finite sums for large nnn on ΩT\Omega_TΩT​. lim inf⁡nnγ0(1−αn)>0\liminf_n n^{\gamma_0}(1-\alpha_n)>0liminfn​nγ0​(1−αn​)>0 is "eventually ≥κ\ge\kappa≥κ for some κ>0\kappa>0κ>0". The constant in (6c) is fixed to u(a+σ)u(a+\sigma)u(a+σ).
  • Ruled out. A real tsum in (6c) would make the bound vacuous for non-summable tails, and a real supremum would make (6a) vacuous for unbounded thresholds. Neither appears. (6a) says that ℓn\ell_nℓn​ equals mΔm\DeltamΔ on [a+σ,b][a+\sigma,b][a+σ,b] for all large nnn, a property of the learned threshold that no fixed threshold could satisfy for all admissible loads.
  • One added hypothesis. Proposition 9 assumes u(t0)>0u(t_0)>0u(t0​)>0: for an empty system at t0t_0t0​ the paper's strict inequality reads 0<00<00<0.
  • Welcome contributions: the Poisson functional strong law with rate (Lemma 6), Bramson's approximation lemma (Lemma 21), and the construction's well-posedness. All three are reusable for other many-server models.

Selected references

  • D. Goldsztajn, S. C. Borst, J. S. H. van Leeuwaarden, Learning and balancing unknown loads in large-scale systems, arXiv:2012.10142v3, 2024 (Mathematics of Operations Research, 2025). https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.10142
  • D. Goldsztajn, S. C. Borst, J. S. H. van Leeuwaarden, D. Mukherjee, P. A. Whiting, Self-learning threshold-based load balancing, INFORMS Journal on Computing 34(1), 39–54, 2022.
  • M. Bramson, State space collapse with application to heavy traffic limits for multiclass queueing networks, Queueing Systems 30, 89–140, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019160803783
  • P. D. Sparaggis, D. Towsley, C. Cassandras, Extremal properties of the shortest/longest non-full queue policies in finite-capacity systems with state-dependent service rates, Journal of Applied Probability 30, 223–236, 1993.
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Selling Data to Marketers 4: Under the Rotation Order, Data Appends with Costs Below the Prior Mean Serve High-Cost Marketers Efficiently and Under- (Over-) Supply Low-Cost Ones Below (Above) v⁺Research Paper

Motivation

Data brokers sell consumer data to firms that use it to decide whom to target, whom to lend to, or where to open a store. Two kinds of products are common: a marketing list, which supplies contact information without which the buyer cannot act at all, and a data append, which enriches information about consumers the buyer can already reach (Federal Trade Commission, Data Brokers, 2014). A seller who does not know a buyer's cost of acting must screen buyers with a menu of plans that differ in price and in how informative the data are.

Liang Guo's paper Selling Data to Marketers (Management Science, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2023.01350) characterizes the optimal menu, first for a binary-value model (§3) and then for a general information structure ordered by rotation (§4), following Johnson and Myatt (2006). This mission formalizes Proposition 7: data appends under the rotation order. It is the fourth mission of a series built from the same manuscript; the first three cover marketing lists and data appends in the binary model and marketing lists under the rotation order.

Setting

A marketer can take an action (target a consumer) at cost ccc; the action's value uuu is uncertain with prior mean u^\hat uu^. A data service of informativeness α∈[α‾,αˉ]⊂(0,1)\alpha\in[\underline\alpha,\bar\alpha]\subset(0,1)α∈[α​,αˉ]⊂(0,1) produces a signal, and its information is summarized by the posterior mean vvv. For each α\alphaα, vvv has cumulative distribution function H(v,α)H(v,\alpha)H(v,α) on a support [v‾,vˉ][\underline v,\bar v][v​,vˉ], with a strictly positive density h(v,α)h(v,\alpha)h(v,α) and mean u^\hat uu^ for every α\alphaα. The family is rotation ordered: there is a point v+∈(v‾,vˉ)v^+\in(\underline v,\bar v)v+∈(v​,vˉ) with

∂H(v,α)∂α>0 (v<v+),∂H(v,α)∂α<0 (v>v+).\frac{\partial H(v,\alpha)}{\partial\alpha}>0 \ (v<v^+),\qquad \frac{\partial H(v,\alpha)}{\partial\alpha}<0 \ (v>v^+).∂α∂H(v,α)​>0 (v<v+),∂α∂H(v,α)​<0 (v>v+).

A more informative service spreads the posterior mean away from u^\hat uu^.

A service plan (T,α)(T,\alpha)(T,α) charges a fixed fee T≥0T\ge0T≥0. Serving a marketer with informativeness α\alphaα costs the seller k(α)k(\alpha)k(α), with k(α‾)=0k(\underline\alpha)=0k(α​)=0 and kkk increasing. A marketer targets exactly when v>cv>cv>c, so a marketer with cost cic_ici​ who buys (Tj,αj)(T_j,\alpha_j)(Tj​,αj​) earns

Uij=−Tj+∫civˉ(v−ci) dH(v,αj).U_{ij}=-T_j+\int_{c_i}^{\bar v}(v-c_i)\,dH(v,\alpha_j).Uij​=−Tj​+∫ci​vˉ​(v−ci​)dH(v,αj​).

Costs are cHc_HcH​ with probability θ∈(0,1)\theta\in(0,1)θ∈(0,1) and cLc_LcL​ with probability 1−θ1-\theta1−θ, 0<cL<cH0<c_L<c_H0<cL​<cH​. A data-append buyer can act without the data, so its outside option is Ui0=max⁡{u^−ci,0}U_{i0}=\max\{\hat u-c_i,0\}Ui0​=max{u^−ci​,0}.

The seller offers a menu (TH,αH),(TL,αL)(T_H,\alpha_H),(T_L,\alpha_L)(TH​,αH​),(TL​,αL​) and maximizes Π=θ[TH−k(αH)]+(1−θ)[TL−k(αL)]\Pi=\theta[T_H-k(\alpha_H)]+(1-\theta)[T_L-k(\alpha_L)]Π=θ[TH​−k(αH​)]+(1−θ)[TL​−k(αL​)] subject to individual rationality Uii≥Ui0U_{ii}\ge U_{i0}Uii​≥Ui0​ and incentive compatibility Uii≥Uii′U_{ii}\ge U_{ii'}Uii​≥Uii′​ for both types. Call any maximizer an optimal menu, with levels αH∗,αL∗\alpha^*_H,\alpha^*_LαH∗​,αL∗​. The benchmark with observable costs is

max⁡α∈[α‾,αˉ] θi[∫civˉ(v−ci) dH(v,α)−k(α)],\max_{\alpha\in[\underline\alpha,\bar\alpha]}\ \theta_i\Big[\int_{c_i}^{\bar v}(v-c_i)\,dH(v,\alpha)-k(\alpha)\Big],α∈[α​,αˉ]max​ θi​[∫ci​vˉ​(v−ci​)dH(v,α)−k(α)],

and its maximizers are the efficient levels αie\alpha^e_iαie​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 7

Assume cL<cH<u^c_L<c_H<\hat ucL​<cH​<u^. If cL<cH<v+c_L<c_H<v^+cL​<cH​<v+, then

αH∗=αHe,αL∗<αLe,\alpha^*_H=\alpha^e_H,\qquad \alpha^*_L<\alpha^e_L ,αH∗​=αHe​,αL∗​<αLe​,

and if v+<cL<cHv^+<c_L<c_Hv+<cL​<cH​, then

αH∗=αHe,αL∗>αLe.\alpha^*_H=\alpha^e_H,\qquad \alpha^*_L>\alpha^e_L .αH∗​=αHe​,αL∗​>αLe​.

Here αH∗=αHe\alpha^*_H=\alpha^e_HαH∗​=αHe​ means that the set of αH\alpha_HαH​-levels of optimal menus equals the set of efficient levels, and each strict inequality holds for every optimal menu and every efficient level.

Milestones

  1. The willingness to pay for a data append (p. 20): for c≤u^c\le\hat uc≤u^, Uij−Ui0=−Tj+∫v‾ci(ci−v) dH(v,αj)U_{ij}-U_{i0}=-T_j+\int_{\underline v}^{c_i}(c_i-v)\,dH(v,\alpha_j)Uij​−Ui0​=−Tj​+∫v​ci​​(ci​−v)dH(v,αj​), which is increasing in cic_ici​.
  2. Its integrated form (proof of Proposition 8, p. 33): Uij−Ui0=−Tj+∫v‾ciH(v,αj) dvU_{ij}-U_{i0}=-T_j+\int_{\underline v}^{c_i}H(v,\alpha_j)\,dvUij​−Ui0​=−Tj​+∫v​ci​​H(v,αj​)dv.
  3. The reduction (15) (p. 20): substituting the binding IRLIR_LIRL​ and ICH,LIC_{H,L}ICH,L​ turns the screening problem into a maximization over (αH,αL)(\alpha_H,\alpha_L)(αH​,αL​).
  4. (15) integrated by parts, and αH∗=αHe\alpha^*_H=\alpha^e_HαH∗​=αHe​ for it (p. 33).
  5. The derivative ∂Π/∂αL\partial\Pi/\partial\alpha_L∂Π/∂αL​ of (15) compared with the benchmark's (p. 33).

Significance

Proposition 7 is the general-distribution form of a "double reversal". With marketing lists the low-cost marketers are the high type: they get efficient information, and the high-cost marketers' information is distorted (Proposition 5 of the paper). With data appends and costs below the prior mean, the outside option makes the high-cost marketers value data more. The roles of the types swap, and the direction of the distortion flips with the position of the costs relative to the rotation point. The result tells a data seller which customers to under- or over-supply, and shows that the answer depends on whether its data enable an action or only refine it.

The paper proves the result on a few pages, partly by phrases such as "it can be readily verified". No machine-checked version exists. A formalization makes explicit what the printed argument leaves implicit: that the dropped constraints hold at the reduced optimum, which regularity of kkk and HHH the strict inequalities need, and that statements about "the" optimum hold for every optimum when maximizers are not unique.

Difficulty

The obvious approach substitutes the binding constraints and compares first-order conditions. Two steps of it fail as stated. First, the reduction to (15) drops IRHIR_HIRH​ and ICL,HIC_{L,H}ICL,H​; ICL,HIC_{L,H}ICL,H​ holds at a maximizer of (15) only when the two informativeness levels are ordered as the rotation order dictates. That ordering is available only when both costs lie on the same side of v+v^+v+. Second, first-order conditions say nothing at a corner of [α‾,αˉ][\underline\alpha,\bar\alpha][α​,αˉ]. The strict comparison αL∗≠αLe\alpha^*_L\ne\alpha^e_LαL∗​=αLe​ needs the efficient level to be interior, where the derivative of kkk exists. That comes from the conditions of footnote 5 together with the mean-preserving property of the family. The selling cost need not be convex, so maximizers can be non-unique, and every comparison must hold for every pair of maximizers.

Formalization scope

  • Information structure. A structure RotationFamily with a bounded support v‾<vˉ\underline v<\bar vv​<vˉ (the paper allows an unbounded one). H(⋅,α)H(\cdot,\alpha)H(⋅,α) is continuous on [v‾,vˉ][\underline v,\bar v][v​,vˉ] with H(v‾,α)=0H(\underline v,\alpha)=0H(v​,α)=0, H(vˉ,α)=1H(\bar v,\alpha)=1H(vˉ,α)=1 and derivative h(⋅,α)>0h(\cdot,\alpha)>0h(⋅,α)>0, continuous on the closed support. ∂H/∂α\partial H/\partial\alpha∂H/∂α exists on the closed support. The rotation order (9) holds on the open support, and the mean is u^\hat uu^ for every α∈(0,1)\alpha\in(0,1)α∈(0,1). Condition (10) is not assumed; it follows.
  • Model. Model extends it with 0<α‾<αˉ<10<\underline\alpha<\bar\alpha<10<α​<αˉ<1, θ∈(0,1)\theta\in(0,1)θ∈(0,1), and 0<cL<cH0<c_L<c_H0<cL​<cH​ with both costs in (v‾,vˉ)(\underline v,\bar v)(v​,vˉ) (a pin: the integrals ∫civˉ\int_{c_i}^{\bar v}∫ci​vˉ​ presume it). It also fixes k(α‾)=0k(\underline\alpha)=0k(α​)=0 with kkk monotone on [α‾,αˉ][\underline\alpha,\bar\alpha][α​,αˉ]. dHdHdH is written as h dvh\,dvhdv.
  • Objects of the goal. Optimal menus are maximizers of the full problem: fees T≥0T\ge0T≥0, levels in [α‾,αˉ][\underline\alpha,\bar\alpha][α​,αˉ], IRiIR_iIRi​ with outside option max⁡{u^−ci,0}\max\{\hat u-c_i,0\}max{u^−ci​,0}, and both IC constraints. Efficient levels are maximizers of the benchmark (12). Neither is defined through (15) or a first-order condition. That would make the first half of the goal a restatement of milestone 4, and writing the outside option as u^−c\hat u-cu^−c instead of the maximum would change the model.
  • Pinned hypotheses. On the goal only: the part of footnote 5 the strict results use (kkk continuous on [α‾,αˉ][\underline\alpha,\bar\alpha][α​,αˉ], differentiable inside, k′(α‾)=0k'(\underline\alpha)=0k′(α​)=0 from the right, k′(α)→+∞k'(\alpha)\to+\inftyk′(α)→+∞ as α→αˉ−\alpha\to\bar\alpha^-α→αˉ−) and joint continuity of ∂H/∂α\partial H/\partial\alpha∂H/∂α on [v‾,vˉ]×(0,1)[\underline v,\bar v]\times(0,1)[v​,vˉ]×(0,1). The derivative milestone uses only the latter. Convexity of kkk is not assumed.
  • Range restriction. The first sentence of Proposition 7 (αH∗=αHe\alpha^*_H=\alpha^e_HαH∗​=αHe​) is posed on the full problem only within the two ranges cH<v+c_H<v^+cH​<v+ and v+<cLv^+<c_Lv+<cL​. For (15) it is posed without restriction in milestone 4. The branch v+<cL<cH<u^v^+<c_L<c_H<\hat uv+<cL​<cH​<u^ is empty when v+≥u^v^+\ge\hat uv+≥u^, for example for symmetric structures; non-symmetric rotation families with v+<u^v^+<\hat uv+<u^ inhabit it.
  • Reuse. Topkis's monotonicity theorem (Theorem 2.8.4) is on the platform and is the tool the paper invokes. The integration-by-parts facts for distribution functions on a bounded support, and differentiation of ∫cvˉH(v,α) dv\int_c^{\bar v}H(v,\alpha)\,dv∫cvˉ​H(v,α)dv in α\alphaα, are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones in any order are welcome.

Selected references

  • Liang Guo, Selling Data to Marketers, Management Science, 2025 (author's manuscript used here). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.01350
  • Justin P. Johnson and David P. Myatt, On the Simple Economics of Advertising, Marketing, and Product Design, American Economic Review 96(3), 2006. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282806777211946
  • Donald M. Topkis, Supermodularity and Complementarity, Princeton University Press, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400822539
  • Federal Trade Commission, Data Brokers: A Call for Transparency and Accountability, 2014. https://www.ftc.gov/reports/data-brokers-call-transparency-accountability-report-federal-trade-commission-may-2014
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Optimal TransportProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Global Sensitivity Analysis via Optimal Transport 3: The Partition Estimator of an OT-Based Sensitivity Measure Converges Under Weak Convergence of the Joint LawsResearch Paper

Why estimate a sensitivity measure from data

Global sensitivity analysis asks how much of the uncertainty in a model output YYY is due to an input XXX. Borgonovo, Figalli, Plischke and Savaré (Management Science, 2025) propose a family of indicators built on optimal transport: the expected optimal transport cost between the marginal law of YYY and the law of YYY conditioned on the information carried by XXX. The family contains the variance-based and L1L^1L1-based indices used in practice as special or limiting cases, and it applies to multivariate outputs.

In applications these indicators are never computed from the true joint law of (X,Y)(X, Y)(X,Y). They are computed from a sample, by splitting the range of XXX into cells, estimating the law of YYY on each cell, and solving one optimal transport problem per cell (the estimator (76) of the paper). Whether this procedure converges to the quantity it is meant to estimate is the question of consistency, settled by Theorem 21 of the paper. This mission formalizes Theorem 21 and the steps of its proof.

Setting

Let X\mathsf XX and Y\mathsf YY be Polish spaces with their Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebras. A cost is a continuous function k:Y×Y→[0,+∞]k:\mathsf Y\times\mathsf Y\to[0,+\infty]k:Y×Y→[0,+∞] with k(y,y′)=0k(y,y')=0k(y,y′)=0 exactly when y=y′y=y'y=y′. The optimal transport cost between probability measures ν,ν′\nu,\nu'ν,ν′ on Y\mathsf YY is

K(ν,ν′)=inf⁡γ∈Π(ν,ν′)∫k(y,y′) dγ(y,y′),K(\nu,\nu')=\inf_{\gamma\in\Pi(\nu,\nu')}\int k(y,y')\,d\gamma(y,y'),K(ν,ν′)=γ∈Π(ν,ν′)inf​∫k(y,y′)dγ(y,y′),

the infimum over couplings γ\gammaγ with marginals ν\nuν and ν′\nu'ν′.

Let π\piπ be the joint law of (X,Y)(X,Y)(X,Y) on X×Y\mathsf X\times\mathsf YX×Y, with marginals μ\muμ (of XXX) and ν\nuν (of YYY). For a σ\sigmaσ-algebra F\mathcal FF on X\mathsf XX, a version of the conditional distribution of YYY given (X,F)(X,\mathcal F)(X,F) is a Markov kernel x↦νxFx\mapsto\nu^{\mathcal F}_xx↦νxF​, F\mathcal FF-measurable in xxx, with π(A×B)=∫AνxF(B) dμ(x)\pi(A\times B)=\int_A\nu^{\mathcal F}_x(B)\,d\mu(x)π(A×B)=∫A​νxF​(B)dμ(x) for A∈FA\in\mathcal FA∈F. The OT-based sensitivity measure (Definition 1) is

ξK(Y,X∣F)=∫XK(ν,νxF) dμ(x),\xi^K(Y,X\mid\mathcal F)=\int_{\mathsf X}K(\nu,\nu^{\mathcal F}_x)\,d\mu(x),ξK(Y,X∣F)=∫X​K(ν,νxF​)dμ(x),

written ξK(Y,X)\xi^K(Y,X)ξK(Y,X) when F\mathcal FF is the Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra.

Estimation setting. A sequence of joint laws πN\pi^NπN on X×Y\mathsf X\times\mathsf YX×Y (for instance empirical laws of a sample of size NNN) converges weakly to π\piπ; μN,νN\mu^N,\nu^NμN,νN are its marginals. The cost has bounded separate costs: k(y,y′)≤a1(y)+a2(y′)k(y,y')\le a_1(y)+a_2(y')k(y,y′)≤a1​(y)+a2​(y′) with a1,a2≥0a_1,a_2\ge0a1​,a2​≥0 continuous, and with a=a1+a2a=a_1+a_2a=a1​+a2​,

lim⁡N→∞∫a dνN=∫a dν<∞.(73)\lim_{N\to\infty}\int a\,d\nu^N=\int a\,d\nu<\infty.\tag{73}N→∞lim​∫adνN=∫adν<∞.(73)

A sequence of finite measurable partitions XM={XhM}h=1H(M)\mathscr X^M=\{X^M_h\}_{h=1}^{H(M)}XM={XhM​}h=1H(M)​ of X\mathsf XX generates σ\sigmaσ-algebras FM\mathcal F^MFM with

FM⊆FM+1,⋁MFM=F,μ(∂XhM)=0.(75)\mathcal F^M\subseteq\mathcal F^{M+1},\qquad\bigvee_M\mathcal F^M=\mathcal F,\qquad\mu(\partial X^M_h)=0.\tag{75}FM⊆FM+1,M⋁​FM=F,μ(∂XhM​)=0.(75)

The quantities of interest are ξNK=ξK(YN,XN)\xi^K_N=\xi^K(Y^N,X^N)ξNK​=ξK(YN,XN) (finite X\mathsf XX) and ξM,NK=ξK(YN,XN∣FM)\xi^K_{M,N}=\xi^K(Y^N,X^N\mid\mathcal F^M)ξM,NK​=ξK(YN,XN∣FM).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 21 (2)

Under (73) and (75), the iterated limit exists and

lim⁡M→∞lim⁡N→∞ξM,NK=ξK(Y,X∣F).\lim_{M\to\infty}\lim_{N\to\infty}\xi^K_{M,N}=\xi^K(Y,X\mid\mathcal F).M→∞lim​N→∞lim​ξM,NK​=ξK(Y,X∣F).

The statement fixes no rate and no constant; it asserts only that refining the partition after the sample size has grown recovers the sensitivity measure.

Milestones

  1. (80)–(81): for finite X\mathsf XX, ξK(Y,X)=∑hμ({xh})K(ν,νxh)\xi^K(Y,X)=\sum_h\mu(\{x^h\})K(\nu,\nu_{x^h})ξK(Y,X)=∑h​μ({xh})K(ν,νxh​) over atoms of positive mass.
  2. Theorem 21 (1): for finite X\mathsf XX, ξNK→ξK(Y,X)\xi^K_N\to\xi^K(Y,X)ξNK​→ξK(Y,X).
  3. (83): for a finite partition, ξK(Y,X∣FM)=∑h∈H(M)μ(XhM)K(ν,νM,h)\xi^K(Y,X\mid\mathcal F^M)=\sum_{h\in H(M)}\mu(X^M_h)K(\nu,\nu_{M,h})ξK(Y,X∣FM)=∑h∈H(M)​μ(XhM​)K(ν,νM,h​), with νM,h\nu_{M,h}νM,h​ the law of YYY on the cell.
  4. Convergence of marginals, cell masses and cell laws under null boundaries (p. 40).
  5. (85): uniform integrability of aaa with respect to (νN)(\nu^N)(νN).
  6. (86): K(νN,νM,hN)→K(ν,νM,h)K(\nu^N,\nu^N_{M,h})\to K(\nu,\nu_{M,h})K(νN,νM,hN​)→K(ν,νM,h​) on cells of positive mass.
  7. Null cells: μM,hNK(νN,νM,hN)→0\mu^N_{M,h}K(\nu^N,\nu^N_{M,h})\to0μM,hN​K(νN,νM,hN​)→0 when μM,h=0\mu_{M,h}=0μM,h​=0.
  8. (82): for each fixed partition, lim⁡NξM,NK=ξK(Y,X∣FM)\lim_N\xi^K_{M,N}=\xi^K(Y,X\mid\mathcal F^M)limN​ξM,NK​=ξK(Y,X∣FM).

The last step of the paper's proof, lim⁡MξK(Y,X∣FM)=ξK(Y,X∣F)\lim_M\xi^K(Y,X\mid\mathcal F^M)=\xi^K(Y,X\mid\mathcal F)limM​ξK(Y,X∣FM)=ξK(Y,X∣F), is the continuity of ξK\xi^KξK along increasing σ\sigmaσ-algebras, Theorem 9 of the paper. It is posed in the companion mission of this series (part 2, on information continuity) and is not restated here.

Significance

Theorem 21 is what licenses the partition estimator: without it, the number computed by solving one transport problem per cell of a sample has no proven relation to the sensitivity measure. The result is deterministic in the laws, so it applies to any sampling scheme whose empirical laws converge weakly with converging aaa-moments, not only to i.i.d. samples. The finite case covers categorical inputs directly.

On the formal side, no part of this argument is machine-checked. A complete development produces reusable pieces beyond this paper: the conditional law on a cell of null boundary as a continuous functional of the joint law, uniform integrability from convergence of moments under weak convergence, and the stability of optimal transport costs under weak convergence of the marginals with uniformly integrable cost bounds. The last is a standard theorem of optimal transport (Villani 2009, Theorem 5.20 and its proof) that the paper invokes without proof in (86).

Difficulty

The naive argument passes to the limit term by term in the finite sum (83). Two steps of it fail without further work. First, the optimal transport cost is only lower semicontinuous under weak convergence in general; convergence of K(νN,νM,hN)K(\nu^N,\nu^N_{M,h})K(νN,νM,hN​) needs the cost to be dominated by functions whose integrals converge, which is why (73) is assumed and why uniform integrability (85) must be transferred from νN\nu^NνN to the cell laws. Second, cells of zero limiting mass may carry positive empirical mass for every NNN, and their conditional laws need not converge at all; their contribution must be shown to vanish through the product μM,hNK(⋅,⋅)\mu^N_{M,h}K(\cdot,\cdot)μM,hN​K(⋅,⋅), not through the cell laws. Finally, the two limits do not commute in general, so the order lim⁡Mlim⁡N\lim_M\lim_NlimM​limN​ matters.

Formalization scope

  • X\mathsf XX, Y\mathsf YY are Polish with Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebras; in the finite case X\mathsf XX is a Fintype with the discrete topology, so F=2X\mathcal F=2^{\mathsf X}F=2X.
  • Since ξK\xi^KξK depends on (X,Y)(X,Y)(X,Y) only through the joint law, statements are made on Ω=X×Y\Omega=\mathsf X\times\mathsf YΩ=X×Y with P=πN\mathbb P=\pi^NP=πN or π\piπ and the coordinate projections, as the paper does in (81). Weak convergence of πN\pi^NπN is Mathlib's topology on ProbabilityMeasure.
  • KKK is the published definition RWPI.SqrtLasso.transportCost; all of KKK, ξK\xi^KξK and the integrals take values in [0,+∞][0,+\infty][0,+∞].
  • Conditional distributions are never chosen: each theorem holds for every kernel satisfying the characterizing predicate IsCondDistrib.
  • The iterated limit is stated as the existence of inner limits LML_MLM​ and LM→ξK(Y,X∣F)L_M\to\xi^K(Y,X\mid\mathcal F)LM​→ξK(Y,X∣F), never through a junk-valued lim.
  • The separate-cost bound and (73) are assumed always; for bounded kkk they hold with constant a1=a2a_1=a_2a1​=a2​.
  • The page prints ξK(X,Y)\xi^K(X,Y)ξK(X,Y) in (78)–(79); the convention of the paper and its proof is ξK(Y,X)\xi^K(Y,X)ξK(Y,X), which is formalized.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: kkk is not assumed bounded, the laws πN\pi^NπN are not assumed eventually equal to π\piπ, the conditional laws are not assumed to converge, and cells of zero mass are allowed.

Contributions are welcome on each milestone separately, in particular on the stability of transport costs (86), which is reusable well beyond sensitivity analysis.

Selected references

  • E. Borgonovo, A. Figalli, E. Plischke, G. Savaré, Global Sensitivity Analysis via Optimal Transport, Management Science, 2025 (authors' manuscript of 7 March 2024). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.01796
  • C. Villani, Optimal Transport: Old and New, Grundlehren der mathematischen Wissenschaften 338, Springer, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9
  • P. Billingsley, Convergence of Probability Measures, 2nd ed., Wiley, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316962
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Optimality of Affine Policies for Budgeted Uncertainty Sets 2: For Disjoint Constrained Budgeted Sets, Affine Policies Approximate the Adjustable Robust Problem within O(log² n / log log n)Research Paper

Motivation

Two-stage adjustable robust optimization models decisions taken in two steps around an uncertain demand: a first-stage decision is fixed now, the demand is revealed, and a second-stage (recourse) decision reacts to it. The objective is the worst-case total cost over a set of possible demands. Computing the optimal adjustable solution is intractable in general, and even for a single budget constraint it cannot be approximated within Ω(log⁡n/log⁡log⁡n)\Omega(\log n/\log\log n)Ω(logn/loglogn) under a standard complexity assumption (Feige, Jain, Mahdian, Mirrokni, IPCO 2007), where nnn is the number of decision variables.

Affine policies, in which the recourse is restricted to an affine function of the revealed demand (Ben-Tal et al. 2004), are computable by one linear program and are widely used in practice. The question is how much they lose in the worst case.

Uncertainty sets in applications are rarely a single budget: demand is usually grouped (by region, product family or time period) with a separate budget per group. When the groups are disjoint the set is a Cartesian product of budget sets, a class studied by Gupta et al. and by Feige et al. in the robust covering literature.

Timeline. Bertsimas and Goyal (2012) proved that affine policies are within O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​) of the adjustable optimum for general uncertainty sets and that this is tight for some sets. El Housni and Goyal (arXiv:1807.00163, 2018; Mathematics of Operations Research 2021) proved O(log⁡n/log⁡log⁡n)O(\log n/\log\log n)O(logn/loglogn) for a single budget set (Theorem 3.1, the first mission of this series) and O(log⁡2n/log⁡log⁡n)O(\log^2 n/\log\log n)O(log2n/loglogn) for disjoint constrained budgeted sets (Theorem 4.1, the goal of this mission).

Setting

Let A∈Rm×nA\in\mathbb R^{m\times n}A∈Rm×n, a non-negative recourse matrix B∈R+m×nB\in\mathbb R^{m\times n}_+B∈R+m×n​, costs c,d∈R+nc,d\in\mathbb R^n_+c,d∈R+n​ and a polyhedral set X⊆Rn\mathcal X\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn be given. For an uncertainty set U⊆Rm\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^mU⊆Rm of right-hand sides, problem (1.1) is

zAR(U)=min⁡x∈X cTx+max⁡h∈U min⁡y(h)≥0{dTy(h) : Ax+By(h)≥h}.z_{AR}(\mathcal U)=\min_{x\in\mathcal X}\ c^Tx+\max_{h\in\mathcal U}\ \min_{y(h)\ge0}\big\{d^Ty(h)\ :\ Ax+By(h)\ge h\big\}.zAR​(U)=x∈Xmin​ cTx+h∈Umax​ y(h)≥0min​{dTy(h) : Ax+By(h)≥h}.

A first-stage xxx and a recourse rule y(⋅)y(\cdot)y(⋅) form a feasible solution when x∈Xx\in\mathcal Xx∈X and y(h)≥0y(h)\ge0y(h)≥0, Ax+By(h)≥hAx+By(h)\ge hAx+By(h)≥h for every h∈Uh\in\mathcal Uh∈U. The affine problem (2.1) restricts the rule to y(h)=Ph+qy(h)=Ph+qy(h)=Ph+q (still requiring Ph+q≥0Ph+q\ge0Ph+q≥0 on U\mathcal UU); its value is zAff(U)≥zAR(U)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)\ge z_{AR}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U)≥zAR​(U).

Let S1,…,SLS_1,\dots,S_LS1​,…,SL​ be a partition of [m][m][m] and wℓi∈[0,1]w_{\ell i}\in[0,1]wℓi​∈[0,1] weights. The disjoint constrained budgeted set (4.1) is

U={h∈[0,1]m : ∑i∈Sℓwℓihi≤1  ∀ℓ∈[L]}.\mathcal U=\Big\{h\in[0,1]^m\ :\ \sum_{i\in S_\ell}w_{\ell i}h_i\le1\ \ \forall\ell\in[L]\Big\}.U={h∈[0,1]m : i∈Sℓ​∑​wℓi​hi​≤1  ∀ℓ∈[L]}.

With L=1L=1L=1 it is the budget of uncertainty set of the first mission.

The fractional covering value (3.2) of a requirement hhh is z(h)=min⁡y≥0{dTy:By≥h}z(h)=\min_{y\ge0}\{d^Ty: By\ge h\}z(h)=miny≥0​{dTy:By≥h}. In an online fractional covering problem the rows to be covered arrive in batches and a solution may only be increased; an online algorithm A\mathcal AA is ρ\rhoρ-competitive when its cost on every sequence is at most ρ\rhoρ times the offline optimum Θ\ThetaΘ. Throughout, log⁡\loglog is the natural logarithm and β=8log⁡n/log⁡log⁡n\beta=8\log n/\log\log nβ=8logn/loglogn.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1

zAff(U)=O(log⁡2nlog⁡log⁡n)⋅zAR(U)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)=O\Big(\frac{\log^2n}{\log\log n}\Big)\cdot z_{AR}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U)=O(loglognlog2n​)⋅zAR​(U)

for every instance with U\mathcal UU a disjoint constrained budgeted set: there are C>0C>0C>0 and NNN such that zAff≤Clog⁡2nlog⁡log⁡nzARz_{Aff}\le C\frac{\log^2n}{\log\log n}z_{AR}zAff​≤Cloglognlog2n​zAR​ for all n≥Nn\ge Nn≥N, all mmm, every number LLL of blocks and all data. The constant is unfixed, and the bound must not depend on LLL.

Milestones (the paper's proof, in order)

  1. Lemma 3.3 (structural result), restated from the first mission: if covering each row i∈Ji\in\mathcal Ji∈J costs more than 4γlog⁡nlog⁡log⁡nwi4\gamma\frac{\log n}{\log\log n}w_i4γloglognlogn​wi​ while every scenario W⊆J\mathcal W\subseteq\mathcal JW⊆J with ∑Wwi≤1\sum_{\mathcal W}w_i\le1∑W​wi​≤1 costs at most γ\gammaγ, then z(J)≤4γlog⁡nlog⁡log⁡nz(\mathcal J)\le4\gamma\frac{\log n}{\log\log n}z(J)≤4γloglognlogn​ (for nnn large).
  2. Lemma 4.1 — for a greedy scenario a1,…,aLa_1,\dots,a_La1​,…,aL​ chosen by Algorithm 1, the online cost νL\nu_LνL​ is at most ρ⋅OPT\rho\cdot\mathrm{OPT}ρ⋅OPT.
  3. Lemma 4.2 — the affine solution (4.7), a linear part on the thresholded components plus a static part, is feasible.
  4. Lemma 4.3 — the linear part costs at most βρ⋅OPT\beta\rho\cdot\mathrm{OPT}βρ⋅OPT for every h∈Uh\in\mathcal Uh∈U.
  5. Lemma 4.4 — the static part costs at most (1+2ρ+βρ)⋅OPT(1+2\rho+\beta\rho)\cdot\mathrm{OPT}(1+2ρ+βρ)⋅OPT.

With ρ=O(log⁡n)\rho=O(\log n)ρ=O(logn), Lemmas 4.3 and 4.4 give the goal.

Significance

The result. For disjoint budgets the bound is within a log⁡n\log nlogn factor of the hardness bound for a single budget, and it does not depend on the number of groups LLL. It shows that affine policies stay near-optimal beyond the single-budget case, for a class that models grouped demand. The paper notes that it is open whether the extra log⁡n\log nlogn factor is necessary. Gupta et al. give an O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-approximation for a special case with 0/1 matrices and equal weights, but their algorithm is not an affine policy.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved on paper; no machine-checked proof is known. The formal development makes explicit what the paper uses about the online covering algorithm (monotone, covering, competitive), handles the "without loss of generality" relabelling of the blocks in the greedy scenario, and records two gaps in the proof of Lemma 4.4 (zero weights, and a zero increment νℓ−νℓ−1\nu_\ell-\nu_{\ell-1}νℓ​−νℓ−1​, for which Lemma 3.3 is stated with γ>0\gamma>0γ>0).

Difficulty

The thresholds that split cheap from expensive components cannot use the single quantity OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT as in the single-budget case: a scenario may activate one budget in every block at once, and summing per-block bounds gives a factor LLL. That is the O(Llog⁡n/log⁡log⁡n)O(L\log n/\log\log n)O(Llogn/loglogn) bound of the paper's Section 5. Removing the dependence on LLL requires per-block thresholds that add up to O(log⁡n)⋅OPTO(\log n)\cdot\mathrm{OPT}O(logn)⋅OPT, and the paper obtains them from the increments of an online covering algorithm along a greedily chosen worst sequence of scenarios. A proof of the goal therefore needs an O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-competitive online fractional covering algorithm, Buchbinder and Naor's Theorem 4.1, posed on this platform as BNCovPack.Covering.theorem_4_1 (b57de23d-5953-424f-a729-5a018aa74b37, open). That theorem requires positive costs, so zero-cost columns, which this paper allows, need separate handling. The static part also needs Lemma 3.3, the core of the first mission.

Formalization scope

  • Data. Vectors are functions on Fin m, Fin n with the componentwise order; matrices are Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ; Lean indices and blocks are 0-based. First stage and recourse share the dimension nnn, as on p. 1. The partition is S : Fin L → Finset (Fin m), pairwise disjoint and covering Fin m (empty blocks allowed).
  • Values. zARz_{AR}zAR​, zAffz_{Aff}zAff​, z(h)z(h)z(h), Θ\ThetaΘ and zStaz_{Sta}zSta​ are infima in the extended reals, +∞+\infty+∞ when infeasible. A formalization with real infima (equal to 000 on infeasible problems) or without Ph+q≥0Ph+q\ge0Ph+q≥0 would trivialize the goal and is excluded, as is a constant CCC that depends on the instance or on LLL.
  • Standing assumptions of p. 1: B≥0B\ge0B≥0, c,d≥0c,d\ge0c,d≥0, X\mathcal XX polyhedral, wℓi∈[0,1]w_{\ell i}\in[0,1]wℓi​∈[0,1], SSS a partition. "U⊆[0,1]m\mathcal U\subseteq[0,1]^mU⊆[0,1]m compact convex with ei∈Ue_i\in\mathcal Uei​∈U" holds for the set (4.1) and is not added.
  • Added hypotheses and corrections. (i) cTx≥0c^Tx\ge0cTx≥0 for x∈Xx\in\mathcal Xx∈X: Theorem 4.1 is false without it (already for L=1L=1L=1), and it holds whenever X⊆R+n\mathcal X\subseteq\mathbb R^n_+X⊆R+n​. (ii) n≥3n\ge3n≥3 where β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0 is needed, and a threshold N0N_0N0​ in Lemma 3.3, which as printed fails at n=2n=2n=2. (iii) Covering solutions viv_ivi​ are required only for i∈Ii\in\mathcal Ii∈I.
  • The online algorithm is an abstract structure OnlineCover with ratio ρ\rhoρ: starting at 000, non-negative, monotone, covering every revealed coverable row, and ρ\rhoρ-competitive on disjoint batches. The milestones hold for every such algorithm, with the paper's O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn) written as ρ\rhoρ. The goal does not mention the algorithm. Algorithm 1 is a predicate on a run (a bijection of blocks and the chosen scenarios) with its maximality clause, so ties are arbitrary.
  • Thresholds are in multiplied form αiz(ei)≤wβ(νℓ−νℓ−1)\alpha_iz(e_i)\le w\beta(\nu_\ell-\nu_{\ell-1})αi​z(ei​)≤wβ(νℓ​−νℓ−1​); no division by a weight that may be 000.
  • Infrastructure. Lemma 3.3 is shared with the first mission and needs LP duality and randomized rounding. Buchbinder–Naor's theorem, or any O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-competitive online fractional covering algorithm, is needed for the goal. Proofs of any milestone are welcome.

The source is arXiv:1807.00163v2; its printed page numbers equal the PDF page numbers.

Selected references

  • O. El Housni, V. Goyal, On the Optimality of Affine Policies for Budgeted Uncertainty Sets, arXiv:1807.00163v2, 2019; Mathematics of Operations Research 46(2), 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.00163
  • N. Buchbinder, J. Naor, Online primal-dual algorithms for covering and packing, Mathematics of Operations Research 34(2), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1080.0363
  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power and limitations of affine policies in two-stage adaptive optimization, Mathematical Programming 134(2), 2012. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4
  • U. Feige, K. Jain, M. Mahdian, V. Mirrokni, Robust combinatorial optimization with exponential scenarios, IPCO 2007, LNCS 4513.
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Goryashko, E. Guslitzer, A. Nemirovski, Adjustable robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Mathematical Programming 99(2), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-003-0454-y
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The Role of Lookahead and Approximate Policy Evaluation in Reinforcement Learning with Linear Value Function Approximation: Error Bound for Least-Squares Policy Iteration with LookaheadResearch Paper

Motivation

Approximate policy iteration is the template behind most practical reinforcement-learning systems for large state spaces: alternate between choosing a policy that looks good under the current value estimate and estimating the value of that policy, with errors in both steps. Game-playing systems such as AlphaZero add two ingredients to this template: a multi-step lookahead (tree search) when choosing the policy, and a linear or neural value-function approximation fitted from a few evaluated states. Classical error bounds for approximate policy iteration (Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis, 1996) assume that each evaluation error is bounded by a fixed δ\deltaδ; Efroni, Dalal, Scherrer and Mannor (2019) extended them to HHH-step lookahead policies. Neither analysis asks whether a fitted value function actually meets such a bound.

Winnicki, Lubars, Livesay and Srikant (arXiv:2109.13419, Operations Research, 2025) show that it need not: with least-squares fitting on a subset of states, the iterates of approximate policy iteration can diverge (their Section 3.2). They then prove that sufficient lookahead HHH and rollout length mmm restore convergence, with an explicit finite-time error bound. This mission formalizes that bound.

Setting

A Markov decision process (S,A,P,r,α)(\mathcal S,\mathcal A,P,r,\alpha)(S,A,P,r,α) has a finite set of states S\mathcal SS, a finite set of actions A\mathcal AA, transition probabilities Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a) of moving from state iii to state jjj under action aaa, mean rewards r(s,a)∈[0,1]r(s,a)\in[0,1]r(s,a)∈[0,1], and a discount factor α∈(0,1)\alpha\in(0,1)α∈(0,1). A deterministic policy is a map μ:S→A\mu:\mathcal S\to\mathcal Aμ:S→A. Its value is the expected discounted reward

Jμ(s)=E[∑k≥0αkr(sk,μ(sk)) ∣ s0=s],J^\mu(s)=E\Big[\sum_{k\ge0}\alpha^k r(s_k,\mu(s_k))\,\Big|\,s_0=s\Big],Jμ(s)=E[k≥0∑​αkr(sk​,μ(sk​))​s0​=s],

and the optimal reward-to-go is J∗(s)=max⁡μJμ(s)J^*(s)=\max_\mu J^\mu(s)J∗(s)=maxμ​Jμ(s). Vectors J∈R∣S∣J\in\mathbb R^{|\mathcal S|}J∈R∣S∣ are compared in the sup norm ∥⋅∥∞\|\cdot\|_\infty∥⋅∥∞​. The policy operator and the Bellman operator are

(TμJ)(s)=r(s,μ(s))+α∑jPsj(μ(s))J(j),(TJ)(s)=max⁡a{r(s,a)+α∑jPsj(a)J(j)}.(T_\mu J)(s)=r(s,\mu(s))+\alpha\sum_jP_{sj}(\mu(s))J(j),\qquad (TJ)(s)=\max_{a}\Big\{r(s,a)+\alpha\sum_jP_{sj}(a)J(j)\Big\}.(Tμ​J)(s)=r(s,μ(s))+αj∑​Psj​(μ(s))J(j),(TJ)(s)=amax​{r(s,a)+αj∑​Psj​(a)J(j)}.

Each state iii has a feature vector ϕ(i)∈Rd\phi(i)\in\mathbb R^dϕ(i)∈Rd; Φ\PhiΦ is the matrix with rows ϕ(i)\phi(i)ϕ(i). For a set of states D\mathcal DD, ΦD\Phi_{\mathcal D}ΦD​ keeps the rows indexed by D\mathcal DD and PD\mathcal P_{\mathcal D}PD​ selects the entries of a vector indexed by D\mathcal DD.

Algorithm 2 starts from an arbitrary J0J_0J0​ and, at iteration kkk, (i) picks a policy μk+1\mu_{k+1}μk+1​ with ∥THJk−Tμk+1TH−1Jk∥∞≤εLA\|T^HJ_k-T_{\mu_{k+1}}T^{H-1}J_k\|_\infty\le\varepsilon_{LA}∥THJk​−Tμk+1​​TH−1Jk​∥∞​≤εLA​ (an inexact HHH-step lookahead); (ii) forms the noisy return J^μk+1(i)=Tμk+1mTH−1Jk(i)+wk+1(i)\hat J^{\mu_{k+1}}(i)=T^m_{\mu_{k+1}}T^{H-1}J_k(i)+w_{k+1}(i)J^μk+1​(i)=Tμk+1​m​TH−1Jk​(i)+wk+1​(i) on an evaluation set Dk\mathcal D_kDk​; (iii) fits θk+1\theta_{k+1}θk+1​ by least squares on Dk\mathcal D_kDk​ and sets Jk+1=Φθk+1J_{k+1}=\Phi\theta_{k+1}Jk+1​=Φθk+1​. Assumption 1 asks that the features of Dk\mathcal D_kDk​ have rank ddd for every kkk and that ∥wk∥∞≤εPE\|w_k\|_\infty\le\varepsilon_{PE}∥wk​∥∞​≤εPE​. Under it the fit is linear, Jk+1=Mk+1J^μk+1J_{k+1}=\mathcal M_{k+1}\hat J^{\mu_{k+1}}Jk+1​=Mk+1​J^μk+1​ with M=Φ(ΦD⊤ΦD)−1ΦD⊤PD\mathcal M=\Phi(\Phi_{\mathcal D}^\top\Phi_{\mathcal D})^{-1}\Phi_{\mathcal D}^\top\mathcal P_{\mathcal D}M=Φ(ΦD⊤​ΦD​)−1ΦD⊤​PD​, and the paper defines

δFV=sup⁡k∥Mk∥∞,δapp=sup⁡k,μ∥MkJμ−Jμ∥∞,β=αm+H−1δFV,τ=αm+αm+H−11−αδFV+δapp+δFVεPE.\delta_{FV}=\sup_k\|\mathcal M_k\|_\infty,\qquad \delta_{app}=\sup_{k,\mu}\|\mathcal M_kJ^\mu-J^\mu\|_\infty,\qquad \beta=\alpha^{m+H-1}\delta_{FV},\qquad \tau=\frac{\alpha^m+\alpha^{m+H-1}}{1-\alpha}\delta_{FV}+\delta_{app}+\delta_{FV}\varepsilon_{PE}.δFV​=ksup​∥Mk​∥∞​,δapp​=k,μsup​∥Mk​Jμ−Jμ∥∞​,β=αm+H−1δFV​,τ=1−ααm+αm+H−1​δFV​+δapp​+δFV​εPE​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 14, eq. (10))

If m+H−1>log⁡(δFV)/log⁡(1/α)m+H-1>\log(\delta_{FV})/\log(1/\alpha)m+H−1>log(δFV​)/log(1/α), then under Assumption 1 every run of Algorithm 2 satisfies, for every k≥0k\ge0k≥0,

∥Jμk−J∗∥∞≤αkH1−α+2αH∥Jμ0−J0∥∞1−α kmax⁡(αH,β)k−1+2αHτ1−β+εLA(1−αH)(1−α).\|J^{\mu_k}-J^*\|_\infty\le\frac{\alpha^{kH}}{1-\alpha}+\frac{2\alpha^H\|J^{\mu_0}-J_0\|_\infty}{1-\alpha}\,k\max(\alpha^H,\beta)^{k-1}+\frac{2\alpha^H\frac{\tau}{1-\beta}+\varepsilon_{LA}}{(1-\alpha^H)(1-\alpha)}.∥Jμk​−J∗∥∞​≤1−ααkH​+1−α2αH∥Jμ0​−J0​∥∞​​kmax(αH,β)k−1+(1−αH)(1−α)2αH1−βτ​+εLA​​.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them:

  1. Section 2: the Bellman equations Jμ=TμJμJ^\mu=T_\mu J^\muJμ=Tμ​Jμ (unique solution) and J∗=TJ∗J^*=TJ^*J∗=TJ∗ (eq. (2)); the contraction ∥TJ−J∗∥∞≤α∥J−J∗∥∞\|TJ-J^*\|_\infty\le\alpha\|J-J^*\|_\infty∥TJ−J∗∥∞​≤α∥J−J∗∥∞​; shift and monotonicity of TTT, TμT_\muTμ​ (eqs. (3)–(4)).
  2. Section 3.1, eq. (6): the closed form Jk+1=Mk+1J^μk+1J_{k+1}=\mathcal M_{k+1}\hat J^{\mu_{k+1}}Jk+1​=Mk+1​J^μk+1​ of the least-squares step.
  3. Appendix A, eq. (15): one lookahead step with evaluation error δk\delta_kδk​,
∥Jμk+1−J∗∥∞≤αH∥Jμk−J∗∥∞+2αHδk+εLA1−α.\|J^{\mu_{k+1}}-J^*\|_\infty\le\alpha^H\|J^{\mu_k}-J^*\|_\infty+\frac{2\alpha^H\delta_k+\varepsilon_{LA}}{1-\alpha}.∥Jμk+1​−J∗∥∞​≤αH∥Jμk​−J∗∥∞​+1−α2αHδk​+εLA​​.
  1. Proposition 1 (p. 13): the bound for Algorithm 3, an abstract scheme whose evaluation error at step kkk is at most δk\delta_kδk​, in three displays: the general bound, the bound under δk≤βkδ0+μ\delta_k\le\beta^k\delta_0+\muδk​≤βkδ0​+μ, and its limsup.
  2. Appendix B, eq. (19): for Algorithm 2, δk=∥Jk−Jμk∥∞\delta_k=\|J_k-J^{\mu_k}\|_\inftyδk​=∥Jk​−Jμk​∥∞​ satisfies δk≤βδk−1+τ\delta_k\le\beta\delta_{k-1}+\tauδk​≤βδk−1​+τ and, if β<1\beta<1β<1, δk≤βkδ0+τ/(1−β)\delta_k\le\beta^k\delta_0+\tau/(1-\beta)δk​≤βkδ0​+τ/(1−β).

Significance

Theorem 1 states a sufficient condition for convergence that does not depend on the size of the state space: lookahead plus rollout depth must exceed log⁡δFV/log⁡(1/α)\log\delta_{FV}/\log(1/\alpha)logδFV​/log(1/α), where δFV\delta_{FV}δFV​ depends only on the features and the evaluation sets. Paired with the divergence example of Section 3.2, it shows that lookahead is not merely a heuristic improvement but can be what makes approximate policy iteration with linear function approximation stable. Proposition 1 is a reusable interface: any policy-evaluation scheme whose errors satisfy a geometric-plus-floor bound inherits the same convergence guarantee; the paper's gradient-descent variant is obtained this way.

The result is proved on paper; it has not been machine-checked. The Prove2Me platform has the finite-MDP layer used here (transition kernels, policy values as discounted series, the Bellman optimality operator), exact modified policy iteration, and a one-step bound for greedy approximate policy iteration with QQQ-functions (H=1H=1H=1, no lookahead error). It has no lookahead bound, no least-squares value-function fit, and no finite-time bound for approximate policy iteration with function approximation. A complete development would add the Bellman equations for deterministic policies, the lookahead step (15), the least-squares projection identity, and the error recursion, all of which are reusable for other analyses of approximate dynamic programming.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails at the evaluation step. Classical analyses treat ∥Jk−Jμk∥∞≤δ\|J_k-J^{\mu_k}\|_\infty\le\delta∥Jk​−Jμk​∥∞​≤δ as given; here the error is produced by the algorithm and fed back: the fitted JkJ_kJk​ is the input of the next lookahead, and the least-squares operator can amplify sup-norm errors by a factor δFV\delta_{FV}δFV​, which is at least 111 whenever d≥1d\ge1d≥1. The error recursion therefore contracts only when αm+H−1δFV<1\alpha^{m+H-1}\delta_{FV}<1αm+H−1δFV​<1. A second point is the lookahead step (15), which must hold for an arbitrary previous policy and an inexact lookahead, and rests on the increase of TnJμT^nJ^\muTnJμ in nnn rather than on contraction alone. Finally, combining the geometric decay of the evaluation errors with the αH\alpha^HαH-contraction of (15) requires a convolution estimate that yields the factor kmax⁡(αH,β)k−1k\max(\alpha^H,\beta)^{k-1}kmax(αH,β)k−1.

Formalization scope

States and actions are finite nonempty types; the transition kernel is the published IsTransitionKernel, JμJ^\muJμ is the published PolicyValue (a discounted series of expected rewards, not a fixed point of TμT_\muTμ​) of the point-mass policy at μ\muμ, TTT is the published BellmanOperator, and J∗J^*J∗ is the maximum of JμJ^\muJμ over the finitely many deterministic policies. Rewards enter only through their means r(s,a)∈[0,1]r(s,a)\in[0,1]r(s,a)∈[0,1]. Vectors are functions S→R\mathcal S\to\mathbb RS→R with the sup norm; matrix norms are Mathlib's ℓ∞\ell^\inftyℓ∞ operator norm (maximum absolute row sum). The rank condition of Assumption 1 is det⁡(ΦDk⊤ΦDk)≠0\det(\Phi_{\mathcal D_k}^\top\Phi_{\mathcal D_k})\ne0det(ΦDk​⊤​ΦDk​​)=0 for every kkk; Lean's matrix inverse is zero on singular matrices, so no statement relies on it without this hypothesis.

Conventions fixed where the page is loose: Algorithms 2 and 3 are predicates on whole runs, quantified over every admissible lookahead policy, noise and minimiser. μ0\mu_0μ0​, which Algorithm 2 never produces, is free, so every bound holds for every deterministic μ0\mu_0μ0​. Mk\mathcal M_kMk​ is the operator of Dk\mathcal D_kDk​ (eq. (6) calls it Mk+1\mathcal M_{k+1}Mk+1​; the suprema agree). δapp\delta_{app}δapp​ is the supremum over all kkk and all deterministic policies. Algorithm 3 is stated with ∥Jk−Jμk∥∞≤δk\|J_k-J^{\mu_k}\|_\infty\le\delta_k∥Jk​−Jμk​∥∞​≤δk​, the index of (15) and Appendix B, and without the representation Jk=ΦθkJ_k=\Phi\theta_kJk​=Φθk​, which Proposition 1 does not use. Proposition 1's first display divides by 1−αH−11-\alpha^{H-1}1−αH−1 and is stated for H≥2H\ge2H≥2; the other results take H≥1H\ge1H≥1. The noise bound ∥wk∥∞≤εPE\|w_k\|_\infty\le\varepsilon_{PE}∥wk​∥∞​≤εPE​ is imposed on the whole vector instead of setting wk(i)=0w_k(i)=0wk​(i)=0 off Dk\mathcal D_kDk​; off Dk\mathcal D_kDk​ it constrains only entries the run never reads. The limsup is stated as "for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, eventually ≤\le≤ bound +ε+\varepsilon+ε". The hypothesis of Theorem 1 is kept with the real logarithm as printed; for δFV>0\delta_{FV}>0δFV​>0 it is equivalent to β<1\beta<1β<1, and when δFV=0\delta_{FV}=0δFV​=0 (possible only if d=0d=0d=0) it reads m+H−1>0m+H-1>0m+H−1>0.

A formalization that fixes the lookahead policy to an exact argmax, the noise to zero, or μ0\mu_0μ0​ to a convenient policy proves a special case and is ruled out; so is defining JμJ^\muJμ or J∗J^*J∗ as a fixed point, which would make eq. (2) definitional.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the Section 2 milestones from the series definition of JμJ^\muJμ, the least-squares identity (6), the lookahead step (15), and the recursions of Proposition 1 and Appendix B. Theorem 2 of the paper (gradient-descent fitting) is not part of this mission: its Assumption 2 places no lower bound on the step size, and the statement fails for negative step sizes.

Selected references

  • A. Winnicki, J. Lubars, M. Livesay, R. Srikant, The Role of Lookahead and Approximate Policy Evaluation in Reinforcement Learning with Linear Value Function Approximation, Operations Research, 2025; arXiv:2109.13419v7. https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.13419
  • Y. Efroni, G. Dalal, B. Scherrer, S. Mannor, How to Combine Tree-Search Methods in Reinforcement Learning, AAAI, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.01843
  • D. P. Bertsekas, J. N. Tsitsiklis, Neuro-Dynamic Programming, Athena Scientific, 1996.
  • D. P. Bertsekas, Reinforcement Learning and Optimal Control, Athena Scientific, 2019.
  • M. G. Lagoudakis, R. Parr, Least-Squares Policy Iteration, Journal of Machine Learning Research 4, 2003. https://www.jmlr.org/papers/v4/lagoudakis03a.html
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CombinatoricsOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

The Continuous-Time Joint Replenishment Problem: ϵ-Optimal Policies via Pairwise Alignment: Ψ-Pairwise Alignment Yields a Replenishment Policy Within Factor 1 + 5ϵ of Any PolicyResearch Paper

Motivation

The joint replenishment problem is a basic model of coordinated inventory control. A firm stocks nnn commodities, each of which follows its own Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model, but every order also incurs a joint ordering cost K0K_0K0​, regardless of which commodities it contains. Ordering commodities together therefore saves money, and the question is how to synchronize their replenishment cycles.

Since the mid-1980s the best known guarantee for the continuous-time problem came from power-of-2 policies (Roundy 1985, 1986; Jackson, Maxwell and Muckstadt 1985; Muckstadt and Roundy 1987). Their cost is within 9/8≈1.06\sqrt{9/8}\approx1.069/8​≈1.06 of optimal for a fixed base period, and within 1/(2ln⁡2)≈1.021/(\sqrt2\ln2)\approx1.021/(2​ln2)≈1.02 when the base is optimized. On the hardness side, Schulz and Telha (2022) and Tuisov and Yedidsion (2020) showed the problem to be intractable; the latter proved it strongly NP-hard, which rules out a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme.

Segev (arXiv:2302.09941, published in Management Science, 2025) gave the first improvement over power-of-2 policies. For every ϵ∈(0,12)\epsilon\in(0,\tfrac12)ϵ∈(0,21​) the problem can be approximated within 1+ϵ1+\epsilon1+ϵ of optimal in time O(2O~(1/ϵ3)⋅nO(1))O(2^{\tilde O(1/\epsilon^3)}\cdot n^{O(1)})O(2O~(1/ϵ3)⋅nO(1)). This mission formalizes the approximation guarantee behind that theorem. The source is the arXiv v1 preprint, and all theorem numbers refer to it.

Setting

Commodity i∈[n]i\in[n]i∈[n] has ordering cost Ki>0K_i>0Ki​>0 and holding cost Hi>0H_i>0Hi​>0. Ordering it every Ti>0T_i>0Ti​>0 time units costs per unit time

Ci(Ti)=KiTi+HiTi.C_i(T_i)=\frac{K_i}{T_i}+H_iT_i .Ci​(Ti​)=Ti​Ki​​+Hi​Ti​.

A policy is a vector T=(T1,…,Tn)T=(T_1,\dots,T_n)T=(T1​,…,Tn​) of positive intervals. For t>0t>0t>0 and Δ≥0\Delta\ge0Δ≥0, let Mt,Δ={0,t,2t,…,⌊Δ/t⌋t}\mathcal M_{t,\Delta}=\{0,t,2t,\dots,\lfloor\Delta/t\rfloor t\}Mt,Δ​={0,t,2t,…,⌊Δ/t⌋t} be the multiples of ttt in [0,Δ][0,\Delta][0,Δ]. A policy places

N(T,Δ)=∣⋃i∈[n]MTi,Δ∣N(T,\Delta)=\Big|\bigcup_{i\in[n]}\mathcal M_{T_i,\Delta}\Big|N(T,Δ)=​i∈[n]⋃​MTi​,Δ​​

joint orders in [0,Δ][0,\Delta][0,Δ]. Its joint ordering cost and total cost are

J(T)=K0⋅lim⁡Δ→∞N(T,Δ)Δ,F(T)=J(T)+∑i∈[n]Ci(Ti).J(T)=K_0\cdot\lim_{\Delta\to\infty}\frac{N(T,\Delta)}{\Delta},\qquad F(T)=J(T)+\sum_{i\in[n]}C_i(T_i).J(T)=K0​⋅Δ→∞lim​ΔN(T,Δ)​,F(T)=J(T)+i∈[n]∑​Ci​(Ti​).

For N⊆[n]\mathcal N\subseteq[n]N⊆[n], MNM_{\mathcal N}MN​ is the least common multiple of {Ti}i∈N\{T_i\}_{i\in\mathcal N}{Ti​}i∈N​, and MN=∞M_{\mathcal N}=\inftyMN​=∞ when the intervals have no common multiple.

The algorithm works against a reference policy T∗T^*T∗ with Tmin⁡∗=min⁡iTi∗T^*_{\min}=\min_iT^*_iTmin∗​=mini​Ti∗​ and an estimate F(T∗)≤OPT~≤2F(T∗)F(T^*)\le\widetilde{\mathrm{OPT}}\le2F(T^*)F(T∗)≤OPT≤2F(T∗).

  • Easy regime. When Tmin⁡∗≥nϵ⋅K0OPT~T^*_{\min}\ge\frac n\epsilon\cdot\frac{K_0}{\widetilde{\mathrm{OPT}}}Tmin∗​≥ϵn​⋅OPTK0​​, it uses the easy policy T^i=(K0+Ki)/Hi\hat T_i=\sqrt{(K_0+K_i)/H_i}T^i​=(K0​+Ki​)/Hi​​.
  • Difficult regime. Otherwise it guesses T~min⁡\tilde T_{\min}T~min​ with (1−ϵ/2)Tmin⁡∗≤T~min⁡≤Tmin⁡∗(1-\epsilon/2)T^*_{\min}\le\tilde T_{\min}\le T^*_{\min}(1−ϵ/2)Tmin∗​≤T~min​≤Tmin∗​ (2). It cuts [T~min⁡,T~min⁡/ϵ][\tilde T_{\min},\tilde T_{\min}/\epsilon][T~min​,T~min​/ϵ] into segments Sℓ=[(1+ϵ)ℓ−1T~min⁡,(1+ϵ)ℓT~min⁡)S_\ell=[(1+\epsilon)^{\ell-1}\tilde T_{\min},(1+\epsilon)^\ell\tilde T_{\min})Sℓ​=[(1+ϵ)ℓ−1T~min​,(1+ϵ)ℓT~min​), ℓ=1,…,L\ell=1,\dots,Lℓ=1,…,L. It keeps the active segments A∗\mathcal A^*A∗, those containing some Ti∗T^*_iTi∗​, and picks one representative Rℓ∗R^*_\ellRℓ∗​ among the Ti∗T^*_iTi∗​ in each.

Two representatives are Ψ\PsiΨ-aligned when aRℓ1∗=bRℓ2∗aR^*_{\ell_1}=bR^*_{\ell_2}aRℓ1​∗​=bRℓ2​∗​ for positive integers a,b≤Ψ=2L22L/ϵa,b\le\Psi=2L^2 2^L/\epsilona,b≤Ψ=2L22L/ϵ. The alignment graph GΨ∗G^*_\PsiGΨ∗​ joins Ψ\PsiΨ-aligned active segments. The linear system (LP) asks for Rℓ∈SˉℓR_\ell\in\bar S_\ellRℓ​∈Sˉℓ​ satisfying the same alignment relations as R∗R^*R∗. A solution is misaligned across components when representatives in different components of GΨ∗G^*_\PsiGΨ∗​ are not Ψ\PsiΨ-aligned. The final policy gives commodity iii the CiC_iCi​-cheapest of the RℓR_\ellRℓ​ and of the single large interval ⌈max⁡{T~min⁡/ϵ,Ki/Hi}⌉(R1)\lceil\max\{\tilde T_{\min}/\epsilon,\sqrt{K_i/H_i}\}\rceil^{(R_1)}⌈max{T~min​/ϵ,Ki​/Hi​​}⌉(R1​), rounded up to a multiple of R1R_1R1​.

Formalization targets

Goal: the approximation half of Theorem 1.3

Fix n≥1n\ge1n≥1, K0,Ki,Hi>0K_0,K_i,H_i>0K0​,Ki​,Hi​>0, ϵ∈(0,12)\epsilon\in(0,\tfrac12)ϵ∈(0,21​), a policy T∗T^*T∗ with all Ti∗>0T^*_i>0Ti∗​>0, and OPT~\widetilde{\mathrm{OPT}}OPT with F(T∗)≤OPT~≤2F(T∗)F(T^*)\le\widetilde{\mathrm{OPT}}\le2F(T^*)F(T∗)≤OPT≤2F(T∗).

  • (a) In the easy regime,
F(T^)≤(1+2ϵ)F(T∗).F(\hat T)\le(1+2\epsilon)F(T^*).F(T^)≤(1+2ϵ)F(T∗).
  • (b) In the difficult regime, the grid of powers of 1+ϵ/21+\epsilon/21+ϵ/2 contains a guess satisfying (2). For every such guess and every choice of representatives, a feasible, cross-misaligned solution of (LP) exists, and every final policy T^\hat TT^ built from such a solution satisfies
F(T^)≤(1+5ϵ) F(T∗).F(\hat T)\le(1+5\epsilon)\,F(T^*).F(T^)≤(1+5ϵ)F(T∗).

Milestones

The goal's proof uses the following results, in this order:

  • Claim 1.1 (EOQ facts) and Lemma 1.2 (the density exists and equals ∑N(−1)∣N∣+1/MN\sum_{\mathcal N}(-1)^{|\mathcal N|+1}/M_{\mathcal N}∑N​(−1)∣N∣+1/MN​).
  • Lemma 2.1 (the easy regime) and Observations 2.2 and 2.3.
  • Lemma 2.4, Lemma 2.5 and Corollary 2.6 (the structure of (LP)).
  • Lemmas 3.2 and 3.3 and Claims 3.4 and 3.5 (crossing and uncrossing terms).
  • Lemma 3.1 and inequality (3) (density), and Lemma 3.6 (assignability).

Significance

The theorem gives the first approximation scheme for continuous-time joint replenishment. It settles the problem's approximability up to the form of the exponential dependence on ϵ\epsilonϵ, after nearly four decades in which power-of-2 policies were the best available. Its central device, synchronizing pairs of representatives through bounded integer multiples and controlling everything else by inclusion–exclusion over the alignment graph, is proposed in the paper as a template for other multi-item lot-sizing models.

The result is proved on paper, and no machine-checked version is known. A formalization adds three things.

  • Lemma 1.2. A verified proof that the joint ordering cost of every positive policy is well defined. The paper notes that this is not obvious from (1).
  • Bookkeeping. A check of the paper's constants and signs across a long inclusion–exclusion argument.
  • Generality. Making explicit that the guarantee holds against any positive reference policy, not only an optimal one, whose existence the paper never establishes.

Difficulty

The obvious argument runs as follows: round every Ti∗T^*_iTi∗​ to a nearby point of a small grid and charge joint orders to the grid. It fails because the cost of the joint orders depends on the least common multiples of the intervals, not on their sizes. Two nearby reals can have a small lcm, or none at all, and an arbitrarily small perturbation changes N(T,Δ)N(T,\Delta)N(T,Δ) by a constant factor. The proof must therefore keep the arithmetic relations among the representatives exactly where they matter: within components of GΨ∗G^*_\PsiGΨ∗​, through (LP). It must also show that relations across components contribute only lower-order terms. This requires two nested inclusion–exclusion expansions (Lemma 3.3 and Claim 3.5) whose error terms, of order ∣A∗∣22∣A∗∣|\mathcal A^*|^2 2^{|\mathcal A^*|}∣A∗∣22∣A∗∣, are absorbed by the choice of Ψ\PsiΨ.

Lemma 1.2 is a squeeze argument, but it rests on showing that the common multiples of finitely many positive reals form the set M⋅NM\cdot\mathbb NM⋅N.

Formalization scope

All declarations live in the namespace ContJRP.Align.

Representation.

  • The model is defined on Mathlib with no external dependency.
  • Commodities are Fin n with n≥1n\ge1n≥1.
  • N(⋅,Δ)N(\cdot,\Delta)N(⋅,Δ) counts a finite union of Finset ℝ, and 000 is a member of every Mt,Δ\mathcal M_{t,\Delta}Mt,Δ​.
  • The density is a limUnder.
  • 1/MN1/M_{\mathcal N}1/MN​ is 0 when no common multiple exists.
  • Segments are indexed from 000 in Lean, so the paper's SℓS_\ellSℓ​ and R1R_1R1​ are Lean's index ℓ−1\ell-1ℓ−1 and R 0.

Committed conventions.

  • K0,Ki,Hi>0K_0,K_i,H_i>0K0​,Ki​,Hi​>0 and ϵ∈(0,12)\epsilon\in(0,\tfrac12)ϵ∈(0,21​) everywhere.
  • LLL is the least natural number with (1+ϵ)L>1/ϵ(1+\epsilon)^L>1/\epsilon(1+ϵ)L>1/ϵ, which the page leaves as O(1ϵlog⁡1ϵ)O(\frac1\epsilon\log\frac1\epsilon)O(ϵ1​logϵ1​).
  • Every alignment multiple and the β±\beta^\pmβ± of Lemma 2.4 are positive integers.
  • Inclusion–exclusion sums range over nonempty index sets.
  • The reference policy T∗T^*T∗ is any positive policy whose cost the estimate brackets; it need not be optimal.
  • Lemmas in §2–§3 do not assume the difficult-regime inequality, which their proofs do not use.

What is left out. The running-time half of Theorem 1.3, the time bounds of Lemmas 2.4 and 2.5, and the final selection of the cheapest candidate (§3.3) are not formalized. The goal carries the constants the analysis proves, 1+2ϵ1+2\epsilon1+2ϵ and 1+5ϵ1+5\epsilon1+5ϵ, rather than the rescaled 1+ϵ1+\epsilon1+ϵ.

Trivializing formalizations ruled out.

  • (LP) cannot be empty, because the goal asserts that a feasible, cross-misaligned solution exists.
  • limUnder cannot return a junk value, because Lemma 1.2 and (3) are stated as Tendsto limits.
  • The final policy is not a free parameter: each T^i\hat T_iT^i​ must be one of its options and CiC_iCi​-minimal among them.
  • Misalignment quantifies over positive multiples only, so it is satisfiable.

Infrastructure and contributions. A complete development needs three pieces:

  • the lattice of common multiples of positive reals, and the floor-count ∣⋂iMTi,Δ∣=⌊Δ/M⌋+1|\bigcap_{i}\mathcal M_{T_i,\Delta}|=\lfloor\Delta/M\rfloor+1∣⋂i​MTi​,Δ​∣=⌊Δ/M⌋+1;
  • inclusion–exclusion for finite unions (Finset.inclusion_exclusion_card_biUnion in Mathlib);
  • elementary calculus for the EOQ cost.

The density results (Lemma 1.2) are reusable for any periodic-scheduling model. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative statements of the selection step.

Selected references

  • D. Segev, The Continuous-Time Joint Replenishment Problem: ϵ-Optimal Policies via Pairwise Alignment, arXiv:2302.09941v1, 2023; Management Science, 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.09941
  • R. Roundy, 98%-effective integer-ratio lot-sizing for one-warehouse multi-retailer systems, Management Science 31(11), 1985. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.31.11.1416
  • P. Jackson, W. Maxwell, J. Muckstadt, The joint replenishment problem with a powers-of-two restriction, IIE Transactions 17(1), 1985. https://doi.org/10.1080/07408178508975270
  • C.-P. Teo, D. Bertsimas, Multistage lot sizing problems via randomized rounding, Operations Research 49(4), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.49.4.599.11225
  • A. S. Schulz, C. Telha, Integer factorization: Why two-item joint replenishment is hard, Operations Research, 2022 (forthcoming at the time of the preprint).
  • A. Tuisov, L. Yedidsion, The continuous joint replenishment problem is strongly NP-hard, arXiv:2006.05310, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.05310
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Markov Decision Processes with Observation Costs: Framework and Computation with a Penalty Scheme: The Quasi-Variational Inequality with Inspection Operator Has a Unique Bounded SolutionResearch Paper

Motivation

In many sequential decision problems the state of a system is not observed for free. A controller monitoring a machine, a patient or an inventory must pay to inspect it, and between inspections it acts on a belief rather than on the state. The observation cost model (OCM) makes this precise for a finite Markov chain: at each time the controller either pays a fixed cost cobs>0c_{\mathrm{obs}}>0cobs​>0 to observe the state and choose a new action, or keeps the previous action without observing. Reisinger and Tam (arXiv:2201.07908v3, published in Mathematics of Operations Research, 2025) show that, after augmenting the state with the time elapsed since the last observation, the dynamic programming equation of the discounted OCM is a discrete quasi-variational inequality (QVI): an obstacle problem whose obstacle depends on the unknown itself.

Earlier work on the OCM (Anderson and Friedman, 1977; Hajek, Mitzel and Yang, 2008) treated fixed dynamics of the underlying chain. Discrete QVIs with interconnected obstacles and their penalty approximation were analysed by Reisinger and Zhang (2019) for switching problems, with the identity matrix in place of the transition operator QnQ_nQn​. The paper recasts the OCM QVI in an abstract form and proves it is well-posed.

Setting

Let XXX be a finite state space and AAA a finite nonempty action set. The unknown is a function u:N×X→RAu:\mathbb N\times X\to\mathbb R^Au:N×X→RA with components ua(n,x)=ua,xnu_a(n,x)=u^n_{a,x}ua​(n,x)=ua,xn​. A driver is a family Fa:N×X×RA×RN×X→RF_a:\mathbb N\times X\times\mathbb R^A\times\mathbb R^{\mathbb N\times X}\to\mathbb RFa​:N×X×RA×RN×X→R, a∈Aa\in Aa∈A; its third argument is the vector u(n,x)u(n,x)u(n,x) and its fourth the whole function uau_aua​. Given a sequence {Qn}\{Q_n\}{Qn​} of substochastic matrices on XXX (nonnegative entries, row sums at most 111) and a vector c∈RX×Ac\in\mathbb R^{X\times A}c∈RX×A, the inspection operator is

Mu(n,x)=(Qn u1−c‾)x,(u1−c‾)y=max⁡a∈A(ua,y1−ca,y).\mathcal Mu(n,x)=\big(Q_n\,\overline{u^1-c}\big)_x,\qquad \big(\overline{u^1-c}\big)_y=\max_{a\in A}\big(u^1_{a,y}-c_{a,y}\big).Mu(n,x)=(Qn​u1−c​)x​,(u1−c​)y​=a∈Amax​(ua,y1​−ca,y​).

It reads uuu only at time 111 and couples all actions. The QVI (3.1) is

min⁡{Fa(n,x,u(n,x),ua),  ua(n,x)−Mu(n,x)}=0,n∈N, x∈X, a∈A.\min\big\{F_a(n,x,u(n,x),u_a),\;u_a(n,x)-\mathcal Mu(n,x)\big\}=0,\qquad n\in\mathbb N,\ x\in X,\ a\in A.min{Fa​(n,x,u(n,x),ua​),ua​(n,x)−Mu(n,x)}=0,n∈N, x∈X, a∈A.

Assumption 3.2 asks for a constant β>0\beta>0β>0 with Fa(n,x,r,ua+θ)−Fa(n,x,s,va)≥βθF_a(n,x,r,u_a+\theta)-F_a(n,x,s,v_a)\ge\beta\thetaFa​(n,x,r,ua​+θ)−Fa​(n,x,s,va​)≥βθ whenever u≤vu\le vu≤v are bounded and θ=ra−sa=max⁡j(rj−sj)≥0\theta=r_a-s_a=\max_j(r_j-s_j)\ge0θ=ra​−sa​=maxj​(rj​−sj​)≥0, together with boundedness in xxx and uniform continuity in rrr. Assumption 3.12 asks that Fa(n,x,r,ϕ)F_a(n,x,r,\phi)Fa​(n,x,r,ϕ) depend on ϕ\phiϕ only through finitely many values. For the OCM, Fa(n,x,r,ϕ)=ra−γϕ(n+1,x)−(Panra)xF_a(n,x,r,\phi)=r_a-\gamma\phi(n+1,x)-(P^n_ar_a)_xFa​(n,x,r,ϕ)=ra​−γϕ(n+1,x)−(Pan​ra​)x​.

For the computation the paper truncates time to {1,…,N}\{1,\dots,N\}{1,…,N}, giving a finite QVI (3.7) for a map F~:RN×L×d→RN×L\tilde F:\mathbb R^{N\times L\times d}\to\mathbb R^{N\times L}F~:RN×L×d→RN×L with the monotonicity property (3.5), and replaces it by the penalised problem (3.8), F~a(u)−ρ π(Mu−ua)=0\tilde F_a(u)-\rho\,\pi(\mathcal Mu-u_a)=0F~a​(u)−ρπ(Mu−ua​)=0, with a continuous non-decreasing penalty π\piπ vanishing exactly on (−∞,0](-\infty,0](−∞,0].

Formalization targets

Goal: well-posedness (Theorem 3.13)

Under Assumptions 3.2 and 3.12, a uniform bound sup⁡a,n,x∣Fa(n,x,0,0)∣<∞\sup_{a,n,x}|F_a(n,x,0,0)|<\inftysupa,n,x​∣Fa​(n,x,0,0)∣<∞, and ca,x>0c_{a,x}>0ca,x​>0:

∃! u:N×X→RA bounded with min⁡{Fa(n,x,u(n,x),ua), ua−Mu}=0 everywhere.\exists!\,u:\mathbb N\times X\to\mathbb R^A\ \text{bounded with}\ \min\{F_a(n,x,u(n,x),u_a),\,u_a-\mathcal Mu\}=0\ \text{everywhere}.∃!u:N×X→RA bounded with min{Fa​(n,x,u(n,x),ua​),ua​−Mu}=0 everywhere.

Milestones

  • Lemma 3.5: the restriction of FFF to {1,…,N}\{1,\dots,N\}{1,…,N} satisfies (3.5) with the same β\betaβ.
  • Proposition 3.10: for every ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0, a subsolution of (3.8) lies below a supersolution.
  • Lemma 3.11: for c≥0c\ge0c≥0, every solution of (3.8) satisfies ∥uρ∥∞≤∥F~(0)∥∞/β\|u^\rho\|_\infty\le\|\tilde F(0)\|_\infty/\beta∥uρ∥∞​≤∥F~(0)∥∞​/β.
  • Theorem 3.13, truncated part: (3.8) has a unique solution uρ,Nu^{\rho,N}uρ,N, which increases to a limit uNu^NuN as ρ→∞\rho\to\inftyρ→∞; for c>0c>0c>0, uNu^NuN solves (3.7).
  • Proposition 3.8: comparison for the truncated QVI (3.7) when c>0c>0c>0.
  • Proposition 3.3: comparison for bounded sub- and supersolutions of (3.1) when c>0c>0c>0.
  • Corollary 3.4: bounded solutions of the OCM QVI (2.11) are unique.

Significance

The well-posedness theorem identifies the value function of the discounted observation cost model as the unique bounded solution of a QVI, which is what justifies computing it: truncating time and penalising the obstacle gives a sequence of finite nonlinear systems whose solutions converge to it, and these systems are solved in practice by semismooth Newton iterations. The abstract framework covers other models with a non-local, action-coupling obstacle, such as discretised switching problems.

The results are proved in the paper, partly by reference: existence of the penalised solutions and the convergence uρ,N→uNu^{\rho,N}\to u^Nuρ,N→uN are delegated to Reisinger and Zhang (2019, Theorems 2.5 and 2.6), and Lemma 3.11 is stated as "a direct adaptation" of a lemma there. None of the results is formalized. A formal development makes the delegated steps explicit and fixes the hypotheses under which the statements hold (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

The comparison principle (Proposition 3.3) is a maximum principle on an infinite index set: the supremum of u−vu-vu−v need not be attained, so the argument works along maximising sequences and needs the uniform continuity of the driver in rrr. In the obstacle branch, the inspection operator transports the maximum to time 111, and excluding that case uses c>0c>0c>0 through a chain argument over the finite set A×XA\times XA×X; with c=0c=0c=0 comparison fails.

Existence is harder. A direct fixed-point argument fails because the driver is only monotone, not a contraction, and the obstacle depends on the unknown. The paper's route goes through two limits, ρ→∞\rho\to\inftyρ→∞ and N→∞N\to\inftyN→∞, each requiring bounds uniform in the other parameter and a passage to the limit in a nonlinear, non-local equation; the N→∞N\to\inftyN→∞ limit uses Assumption 3.12 to localise the dependence on ϕ\phiϕ.

Formalization scope

Everything is finite-dimensional or a function on the discrete set N×X\mathbb N\times XN×X; no measure theory is involved. Unknowns are curried as u n x a =ua(n,x)=u_a(n,x)=ua​(n,x), costs as c a x. Time in (3.1) ranges over all of N\mathbb NN, including 000, and u1u^1u1 is u 1. The truncated time set {1,…,N}\{1,\dots,N\}{1,…,N} is Fin N with the index kkk standing for time k+1k+1k+1, so u1u^1u1 is u 0. Substochastic means nonnegative entries with row sums at most 111; c>0c>0c>0 and c≥0c\ge0c≥0 are componentwise; norms are sup norms, written out entrywise. Bounded sets of rrr in Assumption 3.2.2 are cubes.

Two additions to the paper's hypotheses are made, each because the statement is false without it. The goal assumes sup⁡a,n,x∣Fa(n,x,0,0)∣<∞\sup_{a,n,x}|F_a(n,x,0,0)|<\inftysupa,n,x​∣Fa​(n,x,0,0)∣<∞: Assumption 3.2.2 only bounds FFF for each fixed nnn, and the driver ra−γϕ(n+1,x)−nr_a-\gamma\phi(n+1,x)-nra​−γϕ(n+1,x)−n satisfies both assumptions yet has no bounded solution. Corollary 3.4 is stated for bounded solutions of (2.11). The truncated QVI is stated without Problem 3.6's time boundary condition ua(N,⋅)=Mu(N,⋅)u_a(N,\cdot)=\mathcal Mu(N,\cdot)ua​(N,⋅)=Mu(N,⋅), which (3.8) does not encode. The continuity of the restricted driver claimed in Lemma 3.5 is not part of that milestone; the truncated part of Theorem 3.13 takes continuity of an abstract F~\tilde FF~ as a hypothesis.

The N→∞N\to\inftyN→∞ clause of Theorem 3.13 ("u=lim⁡N→∞uNu=\lim_{N\to\infty}u^Nu=limN→∞​uN, monotone from below") is not stated: the paper does not define the truncated operator beyond time NNN, and with the zero extension the monotonicity in NNN fails. The goal keeps the clause's well-defined content, existence and uniqueness of the bounded solution. A goal asserting only uniqueness (Proposition 3.3), or existence with the uniform bound hidden inside a definition, would be a different theorem; the bound is an explicit hypothesis.

A complete development needs solvability of finite-dimensional monotone nonlinear systems (the existence result cited from Reisinger and Zhang), monotone convergence in finite dimensions, and maximum-principle arguments on N×X\mathbb N\times XN×X. The comparison principles and the a-priori bound are reusable for other monotone schemes. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative existence arguments for the goal, are welcome.

Selected references

  • C. Reisinger and J. Tam, Markov decision processes with observation costs: framework and computation with a penalty scheme, arXiv:2201.07908v3, 2023; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.07908v3
  • C. Reisinger and Y. Zhang, A penalty scheme for monotone systems with interconnected obstacles: convergence and error estimates, SIAM Journal on Numerical Analysis 57(4):1625–1648, 2019 (reference [28] of the paper).
  • R. F. Anderson and A. Friedman, Optimal inspections in a stochastic control problem with costly observations, Mathematics of Operations Research 2(2):155–190, 1977. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2.2.155
  • B. Hajek, K. Mitzel and S. Yang, Paging and registration in cellular networks: jointly optimal policies and an iterative algorithm, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 54:608–622, 2008.
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A Model of Shoppertainment Live Streaming: Zero Entertainment Bandwidth Is Never Optimal, the Optimal Bandwidth Lies Beyond the Traffic Peak, and Is Full Entertainment When vₑ > v(1+q)/4Research Paper

Motivation

In shoppertainment live streaming a single streamer sells products from many manufacturers during live sessions that mix product presentation with entertainment. Some of the most successful streamers spend much of their air time on content unrelated to the products; the paper cites Dong Yuhui, who devotes his sessions to English lessons. Traditional TV shopping (QVC) does the opposite and spends all air time on product features. This raises a question for operations and marketing: how should a streamer split a session's limited bandwidth between entertainment and product information?

Gu, Zhao and Wu (Management Science, 2024) answer it in a three-stage game between a streamer, a pool of manufacturers and a population of consumers. Entertainment attracts consumers directly, but it also leaves them less certain whether a product fits, and that uncertainty changes how manufacturers price. The paper's headline result, Proposition 3, says that zero entertainment is never optimal. This mission formalizes Proposition 3 together with the chain of lemmas and propositions of Section 4 on which it rests.

Setting

A product has quality q∈[0,1]q \in [0,1]q∈[0,1], the probability that it fits a consumer. A good fit is worth v>0v > 0v>0 and a bad fit 000. The qualities of the contracted manufacturers are uniform on [q‾,1][\underline q, 1][q​,1], where q‾∈[0,1)\underline q \in [0,1)q​∈[0,1) is the streamer's quality threshold; write dF(q)=dq/(1−q‾)dF(q) = dq/(1-\underline q)dF(q)=dq/(1−q​). The streamer keeps a commission rate α∈(0,1)\alpha \in (0,1)α∈(0,1) of sales revenue.

The streamer chooses an entertainment bandwidth te∈[0,1]t_e \in [0,1]te​∈[0,1], the share of a session spent on entertainment. Each attending consumer receives a fit signal whose accuracy is 1−te1 - t_e1−te​. After a good signal the posterior fit probability is 1−te+teq1 - t_e + t_e q1−te​+te​q, after a bad one it is teqt_e qte​q. The two willingness-to-pay levels are therefore

pH=(1−te+teq) v,pL=teqv.p_H = (1 - t_e + t_e q)\,v, \qquad p_L = t_e q v .pH​=(1−te​+te​q)v,pL​=te​qv.

With TTT attending consumers, the demand at price ppp is TTT if p≤pLp \le p_Lp≤pL​ (everyone buys), qTqTqT if pL<p≤pHp_L < p \le p_HpL​<p≤pH​ (only good-signal consumers buy), and 000 above pHp_HpH​. A manufacturer earns (1−α) p D(p)(1-\alpha)\,p\,D(p)(1−α)pD(p).

Write t^e=1/(2−q‾)\hat t_e = 1/(2-\underline q)t^e​=1/(2−q​) and q^=2−1/te\hat q = 2 - 1/t_eq^​=2−1/te​. In equilibrium a manufacturer of quality qqq prices low (pLp_LpL​) exactly when te>1/(2−q)t_e > 1/(2-q)te​>1/(2−q), that is, when q<q^q < \hat qq<q^​. A consumer's expected shopping surplus Eup(te)Eu_p(t_e)Eup​(te​) is the average, over manufacturers, of what the consumer gains at the equilibrium price. Attending costs are uniform on [0,K][0,K][0,K], and the streamer's entertaining capability ve≥0v_e \ge 0ve​≥0 gives the entertainment utility vetev_e t_eve​te​, so the attending traffic is

T(te)=vete+Eup(te)K.T(t_e) = \frac{v_e t_e + Eu_p(t_e)}{K}.T(te​)=Kve​te​+Eup​(te​)​.

The individual profitability π(te)\pi(t_e)π(te​) is the streamer's expected commission from one attending consumer, and the streamer's payoff is Π(te)=T(te) π(te)\Pi(t_e) = T(t_e)\,\pi(t_e)Π(te​)=T(te​)π(te​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3 (p. 33)

For 0<α<10 < \alpha < 10<α<1, v>0v > 0v>0, K>0K > 0K>0, 0≤q‾<10 \le \underline q < 10≤q​<1 and ve≥0v_e \ge 0ve​≥0:

  1. te=0t_e = 0te​=0 is not a maximizer of Π\PiΠ on [0,1][0,1][0,1], and Π\PiΠ attains its maximum on [0,1][0,1][0,1];
  2. if ve≤v(1+q‾)/4v_e \le v(1+\underline q)/4ve​≤v(1+q​)/4, every maximizer te∗t^*_ete∗​ of Π\PiΠ satisfies te∗≥teTt^*_e \ge t^T_ete∗​≥teT​ for every maximizer teTt^T_eteT​ of TTT;
  3. if ve>v(1+q‾)/4v_e > v(1+\underline q)/4ve​>v(1+q​)/4, then
Π(te)<Π(1)for all te∈[0,1).\Pi(t_e) < \Pi(1) \qquad \text{for all } t_e \in [0,1).Π(te​)<Π(1)for all te​∈[0,1).

Milestones

  • Lemma 2 (p. 24): a manufacturer of quality q>0q > 0q>0 maximizes profit at pLp_LpL​ (uniquely) when te>1/(2−q)t_e > 1/(2-q)te​>1/(2−q) and at pHp_HpH​ when te≤1/(2−q)t_e \le 1/(2-q)te​≤1/(2−q).
  • Proposition 1 (p. 25): the proportion of low-pricing manufacturers is ψ(te)=(q^−q‾)/(1−q‾)\psi(t_e) = (\hat q - \underline q)/(1-\underline q)ψ(te​)=(q^​−q​)/(1−q​) for te>t^et_e > \hat t_ete​>t^e​ and 000 otherwise; it increases in tet_ete​ and decreases in q‾\underline qq​.
  • Lemma 3 (p. 27): Eup=∫q‾q^(1−te) qv dF(q)Eu_p = \int_{\underline q}^{\hat q}(1-t_e)\,q v\,dF(q)Eup​=∫q​q^​​(1−te​)qvdF(q) for te>t^et_e > \hat t_ete​>t^e​, and 000 otherwise.
  • Display (14) (p. 31): π(te)=α(∫q‾q^pL dF+∫q^1pHq dF)\pi(t_e) = \alpha\big(\int_{\underline q}^{\hat q} p_L\,dF + \int_{\hat q}^1 p_H q\,dF\big)π(te​)=α(∫q​q^​​pL​dF+∫q^​1​pH​qdF) for te>t^et_e > \hat t_ete​>t^e​, and α∫q‾1pHq dF\alpha \int_{\underline q}^1 p_H q\,dFα∫q​1​pH​qdF otherwise.
  • Proposition 2 (p. 27): TTT is strictly increasing on [0,1][0,1][0,1] if ve>v(1+q‾)/2v_e > v(1+\underline q)/2ve​>v(1+q​)/2; otherwise it strictly increases up to a peak teT∈[t^e,1]t^T_e \in [\hat t_e, 1]teT​∈[t^e​,1] and strictly decreases after it.
  • Lemma 4 (p. 32): π\piπ strictly decreases and then strictly increases on [0,1][0,1][0,1], is maximal at both te=0t_e = 0te​=0 and te=1t_e = 1te​=1, and is strictly increasing in q‾\underline qq​.

Significance

Proposition 3 is the paper's managerial conclusion. Spending all bandwidth on product information, as TV shopping does, is never optimal. A streamer should allocate at least the traffic-maximizing share to entertainment, and should go to full entertainment once its entertaining capability exceeds v(1+q‾)/4v(1+\underline q)/4v(1+q​)/4. Corollary 2 and the extensions of Section 5 of the paper (informing capability, in-session adjustment, competing streamers) build on this result and on the Section 4 chain.

The results are proved in the paper and its Online Supplementary, and none is machine-checked. The supplement's argument for the regime ve>v(1+q‾)/4v_e > v(1+\underline q)/4ve​>v(1+q​)/4 shows only that dΠ/dte>0d\Pi/dt_e > 0dΠ/dte​>0 at te=1t_e = 1te​=1, a local statement. The goal here asks for the global claim that te=1t_e = 1te​=1 is the unique maximizer, so a complete formalization closes a gap in the published argument. The milestones make the paper's equilibrium derivation (manufacturer pricing, consumer surplus, traffic, profitability) checkable step by step.

Difficulty

Lemma 2, Proposition 1, Lemma 3 and display (14) are elementary: case analysis of a price and integrals of piecewise polynomials whose switch point q^(te)\hat q(t_e)q^​(te​) depends on tet_ete​. Proposition 2 and Lemma 4 need sign analysis of explicit rational functions of tet_ete​ on [t^e,1][\hat t_e, 1][t^e​,1], uniformly in q‾∈[0,1)\underline q \in [0,1)q​∈[0,1). The traffic is not concave there: its surplus component is convex on part of the interval and concave on the rest.

The goal is the hard part. Π=Tπ\Pi = T\piΠ=Tπ is the product of a function that rises and then falls (Proposition 2) and a function that falls and then rises (Lemma 4), so the shape of either factor does not settle where the product peaks. Comparing maximizers of Π\PiΠ with maximizers of TTT, and ruling out an interior maximum of Π\PiΠ above the threshold v(1+q‾)/4v(1+\underline q)/4v(1+q​)/4 for every q‾\underline qq​ and vev_eve​, requires quantitative control of the product, not just the monotonicity pattern of its factors. Checking the sign of dΠ/dted\Pi/dt_edΠ/dte​ at te=1t_e = 1te​=1 alone is not enough.

Formalization scope

All parameters are real numbers and every function of the model is total; the statements carry the standing ranges as hypotheses. The bandwidth domain is Set.Icc 0 1, and "optimal" means IsMaxOn on that set. The single definitions file Shoppertainment.OptimalBandwidth.Model contains pHp_HpH​, pLp_LpL​, the demand (8) extended by 000 above pHp_HpH​, the manufacturer's profit, t^e\hat t_et^e​, q^\hat qq^​, the equilibrium pricing rule, ψ\psiψ (as a Lebesgue measure), the consumer's ex-ante surplus, EupEu_pEup​, TTT, the revenue per attending consumer, π\piπ and Π\PiΠ. EupEu_pEup​ and π\piπ are integrals over the uniform law of quantities evaluated at each manufacturer's equilibrium price. They are not defined by the closed forms (12) and (14). This keeps Lemma 3 and (14) genuine statements and ties the goal to the manufacturers' equilibrium.

Conventions and pinned hypotheses:

  • q‾<1\underline q < 1q​<1, so that the uniform law on [q‾,1][\underline q,1][q​,1] exists (the paper allows q‾≤1\underline q \le 1q​≤1).
  • α<1\alpha < 1α<1, the standing range of p. 13.
  • Lemma 2 pins q>0q > 0q>0 and T>0T > 0T>0. Without them every positive price earns 000.
  • Lemma 2 uses the manufacturer's own threshold 1/(2−q)1/(2-q)1/(2−q), as in the Online Supplementary A.2 and Figure 4(b). The printed display (10) reads 1/(2−q‾)1/(2-\underline q)1/(2−q​), which would contradict Proposition 1.
  • A tie te=1/(2−q)t_e = 1/(2-q)te​=1/(2−q) is priced high, as in (10). It is a null set for every integral.
  • Proposition 2 assumes ve>0v_e > 0ve​>0 (Table 1), and the goal assumes ve≥0v_e \ge 0ve​≥0 (as printed in Proposition 3).
  • The peaks teTt^T_eteT​ and te∗t^*_ete∗​ are stated as maximizers, never through the first-order conditions of the supplement.
  • Proposition 1's decrease in q‾\underline qq​ is strict for te<1t_e < 1te​<1 and weak at te=1t_e = 1te​=1, where ψ≡1\psi \equiv 1ψ≡1.

Two formalizations would trivialize the mission, and both are excluded. Without the existence clause, a "for every maximizer" statement could hold vacuously, so the goal asserts existence. Defining EupEu_pEup​ and π\piπ by (12) and (14) would make two milestones true by definition.

Lemma 1, Corollaries 1–2, Remark 1 and the Section 5 extensions are not posed. A complete development needs only Mathlib's interval integrals, Lebesgue measure on R\mathbb RR and elementary real analysis. Proofs of the closed forms of the Online Supplementary (Γ\GammaΓ in A.4, (A1) in A.6) are welcome as auxiliary lemmas.

Selected references

  • Z. Gu, X. Zhao, D. J. Wu, A Model of Shoppertainment Live Streaming, Management Science, 2024; authors' accepted manuscript, October 2024. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.01724
  • R. Lal, M. Sarvary, When and How Is the Internet Likely to Decrease Price Competition?, Marketing Science 18(4), 1999. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.18.4.485
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🏆Completed
CombinatoricsTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: Yuxuan Xu

Deterministic Integer 3SUM in O(n^1.999017): Sharp Binomial-Tail AnalysisResearch Paper

Why sharpen the integer 3SUM exponent?

3SUM asks whether an input sequence contains three entries at different positions whose sum is zero. The classical quadratic running time makes it a benchmark for fine-grained algorithm design: even a small fixed improvement in the exponent changes its asymptotic complexity. The setting here is polynomially bounded integers and a deterministic word RAM; the input-size exponent, rather than an experimental speedup, is the quantity being studied.

Alman and Vassilevska Williams (2026) give a deterministic truly subquadratic integer 3SUM algorithm through thin matrix products and reductions involving Exact Triangle. Xu's manuscript, Deterministic Integer 3SUM in O(n^1.999017) Time via a Sharper Binomial-Tail Analysis, dated 13 October 2026, refines the analysis of that framework. Its claimed bound is the formalization target here. The Hexagon link identifies the author's submission page, which may require authentication; it is not presented as a public article identifier or evidence of peer review.

Inputs, machine model, and analytic quantities

An input of size nnn is a function x:{0,…,n−1}→Zx:\{0,\ldots,n-1\}\to\mathbb Zx:{0,…,n−1}→Z. For a fixed natural number κ\kappaκ, every entry obeys ∣xi∣≤nκ|x_i|\le n^\kappa∣xi​∣≤nκ. Acceptance means that there are pairwise distinct indices i,j,ki,j,ki,j,k with xi+xj+xk=0x_i+x_j+x_k=0xi​+xj​+xk​=0. Repeated values at different positions are allowed. This is a decision problem, so the algorithm need not return a witness triple.

The word-RAM specification is the campaign's existing EndStatement definition, imported from its foundation mission. For each fixed κ\kappaκ, one finite deterministic program, one word-width threshold constant, and one time-bound function must work for all input sizes and all word widths above that threshold. Words have finite signed interpretations; arithmetic, indirect memory access, branching, acceptance, and rejection are defined operationally. The result concerns this exact model.

For the supporting analysis, let H(u)=−ulog⁡u−(1−u)log⁡(1−u)H(u)=-u\log u-(1-u)\log(1-u)H(u)=−ulogu−(1−u)log(1−u), with endpoint values H(0)=H(1)=0H(0)=H(1)=0H(0)=H(1)=0. All logarithms are natural. For an integer c>10c>10c>10, a positive integer mmm, and 0<θ<0.90<\theta<0.90<θ<0.9, set L=cmL=cmL=cm, D=4mD=4^mD=4m, t=⌈θm⌉t=\lceil\theta m\rceilt=⌈θm⌉, and

βd=(Lm−d)9L−m+d,M=β0.\beta_d=\binom L{m-d}9^{L-m+d},\qquad M=\beta_0.βd​=(m−dL​)9L−m+d,M=β0​.

The sharp preprocessing saving, query exponent, and encoding exponent are

γ∗(c,θ)=cH(1/c)−cH((1−θ)/c)−θlog⁡9log⁡4,\gamma_*(c,\theta)=\frac{cH(1/c)-cH((1-\theta)/c)-\theta\log9}{\log4},γ∗​(c,θ)=log4cH(1/c)−cH((1−θ)/c)−θlog9​, q(θ)=H(θ)+θlog⁡9log⁡4,A(c)=clog⁡10−cH(1/c)/2−(c−1)log⁡3log⁡4.q(\theta)=\frac{H(\theta)+\theta\log9}{\log4},\qquad A(c)=\frac{c\log10-cH(1/c)/2-(c-1)\log3}{\log4}.q(θ)=log4H(θ)+θlog9​,A(c)=log4clog10−cH(1/c)/2−(c−1)log3​.

These auxiliary definitions describe costs; they neither redefine 3SUM nor assume the existence of a fast algorithm.

Formalization targets

The campaign goal is the exact fixed bound

EndStatement.ThreeSum.SolvedInTime  1.999017.\texttt{EndStatement.ThreeSum.SolvedInTime}\;1.999017.EndStatement.ThreeSum.SolvedInTime1.999017.

The first supporting milestone is the two-sided binomial entropy estimate. The second is the manuscript's normalized tail bound

1M∑d=tmβd≤cm+11−9/(c−1)D−γ∗(c,θ).\frac1M\sum_{d=t}^m\beta_d\le\frac{cm+1}{1-9/(c-1)}D^{-\gamma_*(c,\theta)}.M1​d=t∑m​βd​≤1−9/(c−1)cm+1​D−γ∗​(c,θ).

A further milestone establishes strict improvement over the earlier preprocessing saving γ(c,θ)=θlog⁡((c−1)/9)/log⁡4\gamma(c,\theta)=\theta\log((c-1)/9)/\log4γ(c,θ)=θlog((c−1)/9)/log4 at fixed parameters. The algorithmic milestone combines the manuscript's Propositions 4.1 and 5.1: admissible sharp-tail parameters must yield a program satisfying the shared 3SUM specification, not merely a numerical inequality.

The final supporting milestone certifies the exact choice

c=21,θ=0.11202,a=0.05665,s=0.06945.c=21,\qquad\theta=0.11202,\qquad a=0.05665,\qquad s=0.06945.c=21,θ=0.11202,a=0.05665,s=0.06945.

It includes the preprocessing, query, encoding, prime-selection, and instance-construction inequalities, together with

2−as/4=1.999016414375,1.999017−(2−as/4)=0.000000585625>0.2-as/4=1.999016414375,\qquad1.999017-(2-as/4)=0.000000585625>0.2−as/4=1.999016414375,1.999017−(2−as/4)=0.000000585625>0.

Every terminating decimal denotes an exact rational number. The target is the fixed big-OOO exponent 1.999017; the smaller cutoff is accompanied by residual asymptotic losses in the manuscript and is not asserted as the same fixed bound.

What completing this mission would establish

A complete proof would certify the manuscript's improved integer 3SUM bound in the campaign's common machine model. The gain is an analysis refinement of the inherited algorithm and reductions. It does not claim a new algorithmic framework, optimal parameters, global optimality, or priority over all other work.

The manuscript also gives an auxiliary O(n1.999073)O(n^{1.999073})O(n1.999073) bound by retuning the previous estimate. That weaker result is background, not this mission's campaign value. The existing upstream formalization is prior work; it does not automatically certify either refinement. The supplied rational interval verifier checks the parameter inequalities, but those checks alone do not prove a word-RAM running-time theorem. The main goal and the newly drafted supporting statements remain open Lean proof obligations.

Where the difficulty lies

A better tail estimate is insufficient unless every other cost remains within the final budget. Shared encoding work, all queries, deterministic prime selection, witness scanning, and instance construction must be included. The word-size and address bounds must remain valid after changing parameters. Ceiling operations, restricting DDD to powers of four, and bounded-size exceptions must also be handled.

The central formalization burden is the connection between the analytic estimates and an actual deterministic program. Assuming an oracle with the desired running time would remove that burden and would not establish the stated target. Likewise, checking a finite range of sizes or a floating-point optimizer's output cannot establish the universal algorithmic statement.

Formalization scope and conventions

The environment is Lean 4.33.1 with Mathlib revision 0df444a360eaa60ab8c11dca51a86af692955474. The foundation reference and the campaign goal's import are retained. Supporting definitions use real logarithms, real powers, natural binomial coefficients, finite sums, and a natural ceiling. Domain hypotheses exclude invalid entropy-tail regimes; endpoint binomial cases are included explicitly.

For r=1999017/1000000r=1999017/1000000r=1999017/1000000, the shared time predicate means that there exists K∈NK\in\mathbb NK∈N such that T(n)1000000≤Kn1999017T(n)^{1000000}\le K n^{1999017}T(n)1000000≤Kn1999017 for every n≥2n\ge2n≥2. Correctness and termination still cover every input size, including n<3n<3n<3. The manuscript's κ≥1\kappa\ge1κ≥1 convention must be extended to the campaign's κ=0\kappa=0κ=0 case, and its word-size analysis must justify uniform correctness at every sufficiently large word width. Both are explicit interface obligations.

Reusable contributions include entropy and tail estimates, rigorous logarithm enclosures, and parameterized cost-to-program results. Existing compatible library results should be reused where available. The manuscript and metadata were prepared with AI assistance; this mission makes no claim of completed human review or completed formal verification of the improved bound.

Selected references

  • Yuxuan Xu, Deterministic Integer 3SUM in O(n^1.999017) Time via a Sharper Binomial-Tail Analysis, manuscript, 13 October 2026. Author-supplied Hexagon submission page. Target: Theorem 1.1; supporting analysis: Sections 3–6.
  • Josh Alman and Virginia Vassilevska Williams, Truly Subquadratic 3SUM and Truly Subcubic APSP via Triangles in Sparse Lopsided Graphs, arXiv preprint, 2026. arXiv:2610.06783v1. Inherited ingredients: Section 4, Lemma 29, Theorem 30, Corollary 31, and the deterministic reductions cited in Xu's Section 2.
  • Anthropic, Truly Subquadratic 3SUM and Truly Subcubic APSP: a Lean 4 formalization, source repository, 2026. Pinned source at commit e1a4e6508154ea59f030480661590a9fe3018011. Its EndStatement.lean supplies the shared specification, not a proof of this mission's new exponent.
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Optimality of Affine Policies for Budgeted Uncertainty Sets 1: For Budget of Uncertainty Sets, Affine Policies Approximate the Two-Stage Adjustable Robust Problem within O(log n / log log n)Research Paper

Motivation

Two-stage adjustable robust optimization models decisions taken in two steps around an uncertain demand: a first-stage decision is fixed now, the demand is revealed, and a second-stage (recourse) decision reacts to it. The objective is the worst-case total cost over a set of possible demands. The model covers set cover, capacity planning and network design under uncertain demand (Bertsimas, Goyal 2012; Gupta, Nagarajan, Ravi 2014). Computing the optimal adjustable solution is intractable in general: Feige, Jain, Mahdian and Mirrokni (2007) showed that, for the budget of uncertainty sets below, the problem cannot be approximated within a factor better than Ω(log⁡n/log⁡log⁡n)\Omega(\log n/\log\log n)Ω(logn/loglogn) under a standard complexity assumption, where nnn is the number of decision variables.

Affine policies, in which the recourse is restricted to an affine function of the revealed demand (Ben-Tal et al. 2004), are computable by a single linear program and perform well empirically. The question is how much they can lose in the worst case.

Timeline. Bertsimas and Goyal (2012) proved that affine policies are within O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​) of the adjustable optimum for general uncertainty sets (mmm = number of uncertain parameters) and that this is tight for some sets. El Housni and Goyal (arXiv:1807.00163, 2018; Mathematics of Operations Research 2021) proved that for budget of uncertainty sets the factor is O(log⁡n/log⁡log⁡n)O(\log n/\log\log n)O(logn/loglogn), matching the hardness bound. That result is the goal of this mission.

Setting

Let A∈Rm×nA\in\mathbb R^{m\times n}A∈Rm×n, a non-negative recourse matrix B∈R+m×nB\in\mathbb R^{m\times n}_+B∈R+m×n​, costs c,d∈R+nc,d\in\mathbb R^n_+c,d∈R+n​ and a polyhedral set X⊆Rn\mathcal X\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn be given. For an uncertainty set U⊆Rm\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^mU⊆Rm of right-hand sides, problem (1.1) is

zAR(U)=min⁡x∈X cTx+max⁡h∈U min⁡y(h)≥0{dTy(h) : Ax+By(h)≥h}.z_{AR}(\mathcal U)=\min_{x\in\mathcal X}\ c^Tx+\max_{h\in\mathcal U}\ \min_{y(h)\ge0}\big\{d^Ty(h)\ :\ Ax+By(h)\ge h\big\}.zAR​(U)=x∈Xmin​ cTx+h∈Umax​ y(h)≥0min​{dTy(h) : Ax+By(h)≥h}.

A first-stage xxx and a recourse rule y(⋅)y(\cdot)y(⋅) form a feasible solution when x∈Xx\in\mathcal Xx∈X and y(h)≥0y(h)\ge0y(h)≥0, Ax+By(h)≥hAx+By(h)\ge hAx+By(h)≥h for every h∈Uh\in\mathcal Uh∈U. The affine problem (2.1) restricts the rule to y(h)=Ph+qy(h)=Ph+qy(h)=Ph+q with P∈Rn×mP\in\mathbb R^{n\times m}P∈Rn×m, q∈Rnq\in\mathbb R^nq∈Rn (still requiring Ph+q≥0Ph+q\ge0Ph+q≥0 on U\mathcal UU); its value is zAff(U)≥zAR(U)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)\ge z_{AR}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U)≥zAR​(U).

The budget of uncertainty set (1.2) with weights wi∈[0,1]w_i\in[0,1]wi​∈[0,1] is

U={h∈[0,1]m : ∑i=1mwihi≤1}.\mathcal U=\Big\{h\in[0,1]^m\ :\ \sum_{i=1}^mw_ih_i\le1\Big\}.U={h∈[0,1]m : i=1∑m​wi​hi​≤1}.

The fractional covering value (3.2) of a requirement hhh is z(h)=min⁡y≥0{dTy:By≥h}z(h)=\min_{y\ge0}\{d^Ty: By\ge h\}z(h)=miny≥0​{dTy:By≥h}, and z(W)=z(1(W))z(\mathcal W)=z(\mathbb 1(\mathcal W))z(W)=z(1(W)) for W⊆[m]\mathcal W\subseteq[m]W⊆[m]. Throughout, log⁡\loglog is the natural logarithm and β=4log⁡n/log⁡log⁡n\beta=4\log n/\log\log nβ=4logn/loglogn.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1

zAff(U)=O(log⁡nlog⁡log⁡n)⋅zAR(U)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)=O\Big(\frac{\log n}{\log\log n}\Big)\cdot z_{AR}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U)=O(loglognlogn​)⋅zAR​(U)

for every instance with U\mathcal UU a budget of uncertainty set: there are C>0C>0C>0 and NNN such that zAff≤Clog⁡nlog⁡log⁡nzARz_{Aff}\le C\frac{\log n}{\log\log n}z_{AR}zAff​≤Cloglognlogn​zAR​ for all n≥Nn\ge Nn≥N, all mmm and all data. The constant is left unfixed, so the goal survives any improvement of the constant.

Milestones (the paper's proof, in order)

  1. Lemma 3.1 — the explicit affine solution (3.5), a linear part yLin(h)=∑i∈Iαihiviy_{Lin}(h)=\sum_{i\in\mathcal I}\alpha_ih_iv_iyLin​(h)=∑i∈I​αi​hi​vi​ plus a static part from (3.4), is feasible.
  2. Lemma 3.2 — the linear part costs at most β⋅OPT\beta\cdot\mathrm{OPT}β⋅OPT for every h∈Uh\in\mathcal Uh∈U.
  3. Lemmas B.1, B.2 — two Chernoff bounds for weighted sums of independent Bernoulli variables.
  4. Claims 3.1–3.3 — rescaling of the covering problem, and two probability bounds for a randomized rounding of a dual (packing) solution.
  5. Lemma 3.3 (structural result) — if covering each single row i∈Ji\in\mathcal Ji∈J costs more than 4γlog⁡nlog⁡log⁡nwi4\gamma\frac{\log n}{\log\log n}w_i4γloglognlogn​wi​, while every scenario W⊆J\mathcal W\subseteq\mathcal JW⊆J with ∑Wwi≤1\sum_{\mathcal W}w_i\le1∑W​wi​≤1 costs at most γ\gammaγ, then z(J)≤4γlog⁡nlog⁡log⁡nz(\mathcal J)\le4\gamma\frac{\log n}{\log\log n}z(J)≤4γloglognlogn​.
  6. Lemma 3.4 — the static part costs O(β)⋅OPTO(\beta)\cdot\mathrm{OPT}O(β)⋅OPT.

Significance

The result. The bound shows that affine policies are an optimal approximation for this class, up to a constant factor: no polynomial-time algorithm can beat them by more than a constant in the worst case (under the hardness assumption). It improves the earlier O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​) bound for budget sets exponentially, and it is the base case from which the paper derives bounds for intersections of budget constraints (Sections 4–5). Lemma 3.3 is a statement about fractional covering problems alone; it generalizes a set-cover result of Gupta, Nagarajan and Ravi (2014) to arbitrary non-negative matrices and weights, and improves its bound from O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn) to O(log⁡n/log⁡log⁡n)O(\log n/\log\log n)O(logn/loglogn).

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved on paper; no machine-checked proof of it or of the structural lemma is known. A formal development would also settle the paper's slips: Claim 3.2's 1−O(1/n)1-O(1/n)1−O(1/n) does not follow from its proof (stated here in the explicit form the proof gives), Lemma B.2's strict inequality fails when μ=0\mu=0μ=0, and Lemma 3.3 needs nnn large.

Difficulty

Feasibility and the cost of the linear part follow directly from the construction. The difficulty is the static part, that is, Lemma 3.3. The obvious argument covers J\mathcal JJ by a union of cheap scenarios, and it fails: each scenario covers rows of total weight at most 111, there can be many disjoint scenarios, and adding up their costs gives a bound proportional to ∑i∈Jwi\sum_{i\in\mathcal J}w_i∑i∈J​wi​, which may be as large as mmm. The lemma asserts a bound that depends on nnn alone, at the rate log⁡n/log⁡log⁡n\log n/\log\log nlogn/loglogn of the hardness result. Any argument therefore has to exploit condition 1 (every single row is expensive) together with condition 2 across all 2∣J∣2^{|\mathcal J|}2∣J∣ scenarios at once. As printed, the lemma holds only for nnn large; for n=2n=2n=2 it is false.

Formalization scope

  • Data. Vectors are functions on Fin m, Fin n with the componentwise order; matrices are Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ; Lean index iii is the paper's i+1i+1i+1. First stage and recourse share the same dimension nnn, as on p. 1.
  • Values. zARz_{AR}zAR​, zAffz_{Aff}zAff​, z(h)z(h)z(h) and the static value zStaz_{Sta}zSta​ are infima in the extended reals, +∞+\infty+∞ when infeasible. The recourse is a function of hhh, which gives the same value as the paper's inner minimum. A formalization with real infima (equal to 000 on infeasible problems) or without Ph+q≥0Ph+q\ge0Ph+q≥0 would trivialize the goal and is excluded.
  • Standing assumptions of p. 1: B≥0B\ge0B≥0, c,d≥0c,d\ge0c,d≥0, X\mathcal XX polyhedral, wi∈[0,1]w_i\in[0,1]wi​∈[0,1]. The assumption "U⊆[0,1]m\mathcal U\subseteq[0,1]^mU⊆[0,1]m compact convex with ei∈Ue_i\in\mathcal Uei​∈U" holds for the budget set and is not added.
  • Added hypotheses and corrections. (i) cTx≥0c^Tx\ge0cTx≥0 for x∈Xx\in\mathcal Xx∈X: Theorem 3.1 is false without it, and it holds whenever X⊆R+n\mathcal X\subseteq\mathbb R^n_+X⊆R+n​. (ii) n≥3n\ge3n≥3 where β>0\beta>0β>0 is needed, and a threshold N0N_0N0​ in Lemma 3.3. (iii) Lemma B.2 in non-strict form. (iv) Claim 3.2 with the explicit bound 1−n eδ/(1+δ)1+δ1-n\,e^\delta/(1+\delta)^{1+\delta}1−neδ/(1+δ)1+δ, δ=η/2−2\delta=\eta/2-2δ=η/2−2. (v) Covering solutions viv_ivi​ are required only for i∈Ii\in\mathcal Ii∈I.
  • Quantifiers. In the goal and in Lemmas 3.3, 3.4 the constants CCC, NNN, N0N_0N0​ are chosen before mmm and the instance; a constant allowed to depend on the instance would make the goal trivial.
  • Randomness is finite: independent Bernoulli selection with probabilities and expectations as finite sums, reusing the published definition SpectralSparsify.Sampling.BernoulliSubset. No measure theory is needed.
  • Infrastructure. LP strong duality (LinearOptimization.lp_strong_duality, proved on the platform) is a tool for Lemma 3.3. The Chernoff bounds and the structural lemma are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative arguments for Lemma 3.3, are welcome.

The source is arXiv:1807.00163v2; its printed page numbers equal the PDF page numbers.

Selected references

  • O. El Housni, V. Goyal, On the Optimality of Affine Policies for Budgeted Uncertainty Sets, arXiv:1807.00163v2, 2019; Mathematics of Operations Research 46(2), 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.00163
  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power and limitations of affine policies in two-stage adaptive optimization, Mathematical Programming 134(2), 2012. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4
  • U. Feige, K. Jain, M. Mahdian, V. Mirrokni, Robust combinatorial optimization with exponential scenarios, IPCO 2007, LNCS 4513 (cited as [19] in the source).
  • A. Gupta, V. Nagarajan, R. Ravi, Thresholded covering algorithms for robust and max–min optimization, Mathematical Programming 146(1–2), 2014 (cited as [21] in the source).
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Goryashko, E. Guslitzer, A. Nemirovski, Adjustable robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Mathematical Programming 99(2), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-003-0454-y
  • P. Raghavan, Probabilistic construction of deterministic algorithms: approximating packing integer programs, FOCS 1986 (cited as [26] in the source).
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Coordinating Inventory Control and Pricing Strategies for Perishable Products 1: With Backlogging, the Profit-to-Go Is L♮-Concave and the Optimal Policy Is Monotone with Bounded SensitivityResearch Paper

Motivation

Food, blood and pharmaceuticals are perishable: a unit not sold within its lifetime is thrown away. A seller decides each period how much to order, which price to charge, and whether to dispose of stock early. A large stock of old units argues for a lower price and a smaller order.

Optimal policies for fixed-lifetime inventory are hard to characterize: the state is a vector of inventory levels by remaining lifetime (Fries 1975; Nahmias 1982), and later work turned largely to heuristics.

Chen, Pang and Pan (Oper. Res. 62(2), 2014) obtained structural results for the joint ordering, pricing and disposal problem with a positive replenishment lead time. They used L♮-concavity, a notion from discrete convex analysis (Murota 2003) that Zipkin (2008) used to analyze lost-sales inventory systems with lead times. This mission formalizes the paper's result for the case where unmet demand is backlogged.

Setting

A product with a lifetime of exactly l≥2l \ge 2l≥2 periods is reviewed periodically over a finite horizon of TTT periods. Orders arrive after a lead time of kkk periods, 0≤k<l0 \le k < l0≤k<l. Write L=l−1L = l - 1L=l−1.

Vectors and L♮-convexity. For vectors u,v∈Rnu, v \in \mathbb{R}^nu,v∈Rn, u∧vu \wedge vu∧v and u∨vu \vee vu∨v are the componentwise minimum and maximum, and eee is the all-ones vector. A set V\mathcal{V}V is L♮-convex if (u+αe)∧v(u + \alpha e) \wedge v(u+αe)∧v and u∨(v−αe)u \vee (v - \alpha e)u∨(v−αe) lie in V\mathcal{V}V for all u,v∈Vu, v \in \mathcal{V}u,v∈V and α≥0\alpha \ge 0α≥0. A function fff is L♮-convex on V\mathcal{V}V if moreover

f(u)+f(v)≥f((u+αe)∧v)+f(u∨(v−αe)),f(u) + f(v) \ge f\big((u + \alpha e) \wedge v\big) + f\big(u \vee (v - \alpha e)\big),f(u)+f(v)≥f((u+αe)∧v)+f(u∨(v−αe)),

and L♮-concave if −f-f−f is L♮-convex. The ordered sets are Vn,k={s∈Rn:s1≤⋯≤sk}\mathcal{V}_{n,k} = \{s \in \mathbb{R}^n : s_1 \le \dots \le s_k\}Vn,k​={s∈Rn:s1​≤⋯≤sk​}.

Data. The unit costs are ccc (ordering), h+h^+h+ (holding), h−h^-h− (backlogging) and θ\thetaθ (disposal), all nonnegative, and γ∈[0,1]\gamma \in [0, 1]γ∈[0,1] is the discount factor. The seller chooses the expected demand d∈D=[d‾,dˉ]d \in \mathcal{D} = [\underline d, \bar d]d∈D=[d​,dˉ] in place of the price. The price is P(d)P(d)P(d), strictly decreasing, and the expected revenue P(d)dP(d)dP(d)d is continuous and concave on D\mathcal{D}D. The realized demand is dt=d+εtd_t = d + \varepsilon_tdt​=d+εt​, where the noise terms are i.i.d. with mean zero and support in [A,B][A, B][A,B], A≤0≤BA \le 0 \le BA≤0≤B, and d‾+A≥0\underline d + A \ge 0d​+A≥0.

State and decisions. The state s=(s1,…,sl−1)s = (s_1, \dots, s_{l-1})s=(s1​,…,sl−1​) satisfies s1≤⋯≤sl−1s_1 \le \dots \le s_{l-1}s1​≤⋯≤sl−1​, so the state space is S=Vl−1,l−1\mathcal{S} = \mathcal{V}_{l-1,l-1}S=Vl−1,l−1​. The coordinate sis_isi​ is the inventory, net of backorders, with residual lifetime at most iii, including orders in transit. Each period the seller chooses:

  • an order-up-to level sl≥sl−1s_l \ge s_{l-1}sl​≥sl−1​;
  • a demand level d∈Dd \in \mathcal{D}d∈D;
  • after demand is realized, a depletion aaa with s1∨dt≤a≤sl−k∨dts_1 \vee d_t \le a \le s_{l-k} \vee d_ts1​∨dt​≤a≤sl−k​∨dt​, so a−dta - d_ta−dt​ units are disposed of.

The next state is s~=(s2−a,…,sl−a)\tilde s = (s_2 - a, \dots, s_l - a)s~=(s2​−a,…,sl​−a).

Recursion. The modified profit-to-go satisfies fT+1=0f_{T+1} = 0fT+1​=0 and

ft(s)=max⁡sl≥sl−1, d∈D{P(d)d+E[gt(s,sl,d∣εt)]},gt=max⁡s1∨dt≤a≤sl−k∨dtϕt,f_t(s) = \max_{s_l \ge s_{l-1},\ d \in \mathcal{D}} \Big\{ P(d)d + \mathbb{E}\big[g_t(s, s_l, d \mid \varepsilon_t)\big] \Big\}, \qquad g_t = \max_{s_1 \vee d_t \le a \le s_{l-k} \vee d_t} \phi_t,ft​(s)=sl​≥sl−1​, d∈Dmax​{P(d)d+E[gt​(s,sl​,d∣εt​)]},gt​=s1​∨dt​≤a≤sl−k​∨dt​max​ϕt​, ϕt(s,sl,d,a∣εt)=γc s~l−1−csl−θ(a−dt)−h+(sl−k−a)+−h−(a−sl−k)++γft+1(s~).\phi_t(s, s_l, d, a \mid \varepsilon_t) = \gamma c\,\tilde s_{l-1} - c s_l - \theta(a - d_t) - h^+(s_{l-k} - a)^+ - h^-(a - s_{l-k})^+ + \gamma f_{t+1}(\tilde s).ϕt​(s,sl​,d,a∣εt​)=γcs~l−1​−csl​−θ(a−dt​)−h+(sl−k​−a)+−h−(a−sl−k​)++γft+1​(s~).

In §4 the paper also assumes c≤h−/(1−γ)c \le h^-/(1 - \gamma)c≤h−/(1−γ).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 291)

For t=1,…,T+1t = 1, \dots, T+1t=1,…,T+1, ftf_tft​, gtg_tgt​ and ϕt\phi_tϕt​ are L♮-concave in sss, (s,sl,d)(s, s_l, d)(s,sl​,d) and (s,sl,d,a)(s, s_l, d, a)(s,sl​,d,a). The largest optimal order-up-to level slt(s)s_{lt}(s)slt​(s) and demand level dt(s)d_t(s)dt​(s) are nondecreasing in sss, the optimal price is nonincreasing, and

slt(s+ωe)≤slt(s)+ω,dt(s+ωe)≤dt(s)+ω(ω≥0).s_{lt}(s + \omega e) \le s_{lt}(s) + \omega, \qquad d_t(s + \omega e) \le d_t(s) + \omega \qquad (\omega \ge 0).slt​(s+ωe)≤slt​(s)+ω,dt​(s+ωe)≤dt​(s)+ω(ω≥0).

The largest optimal depletion at(s,sl,d∣ε)a_t(s, s_l, d \mid \varepsilon)at​(s,sl​,d∣ε) is nondecreasing, and at(s+ωe,sl+ω,d+ω∣ε)≤at(s,sl,d∣ε)+ωa_t(s + \omega e, s_l + \omega, d + \omega \mid \varepsilon) \le a_t(s, s_l, d \mid \varepsilon) + \omegaat​(s+ωe,sl​+ω,d+ω∣ε)≤at​(s,sl​,d∣ε)+ω.

Milestones

  • The ordered sets Vn,k\mathcal{V}_{n,k}Vn,k​, Vn,k+\mathcal{V}^+_{n,k}Vn,k+​ are L♮-convex (p. 287).
  • Lemma 1: g(x,ξ)=f(x−ξe)g(x, \xi) = f(x - \xi e)g(x,ξ)=f(x−ξe) is L♮-convex when fff is (p. 287).
  • Lemma 2: partial minimization over an L♮-convex set preserves L♮-convexity (p. 287).
  • The set {a≥s1∨dt}\{a \ge s_1 \vee d_t\}{a≥s1​∨dt​} is L♮-convex (p. 291).
  • The bound ft+1(s~′)−ft+1(s~)≤(θ+c)δf_{t+1}(\tilde s') - f_{t+1}(\tilde s) \le (\theta + c)\deltaft+1​(s~′)−ft+1​(s~)≤(θ+c)δ for the next states generated by a′>a≥sl−k∨dta' > a \ge s_{l-k}\vee d_ta′>a≥sl−k​∨dt​ (p. 291).
  • (9): ϕt\phi_tϕt​ is nonincreasing in aaa beyond sl−k∨dts_{l-k} \vee d_tsl−k​∨dt​, so the upper bound on aaa can be dropped (p. 291).
  • Lemma 3: the largest minimizer of an L♮-convex function is monotone, with ξ(x+ωe)≤ξ(x)+ω\xi(x + \omega e) \le \xi(x) + \omegaξ(x+ωe)≤ξ(x)+ω (p. 287).
  • The first sentence of Theorem 1, the L♮-concavity of ftf_tft​, gtg_tgt​, ϕt\phi_tϕt​.
  • Corollary 1: monotone sensitivity of the order quantity and the demand level in each age class (p. 292).
  • Proposition 1: if θ≥h+/(1−γ)\theta \ge h^+/(1-\gamma)θ≥h+/(1−γ), depleting only dt∨s1d_t \vee s_1dt​∨s1​ is optimal (p. 292).

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 gives a qualitative description of the optimal policy in a model where no closed form is available. Fresher inventory leads to ordering less and charging more. One more unit of inventory of any age raises the order-up-to level and the demand level by at most one unit. Corollary 1 refines this by age: the order quantity is most sensitive to young inventory, and the price discount is most sensitive to inventory close to expiry. These properties underlie the bounds and heuristics of §6 of the paper.

The formalization. The result is proved in the paper, but parts of the argument are informal: the (θ+c)δ(\theta + c)\delta(θ+c)δ bound is a coupling argument, existence of optimal solutions is "straightforward to check and thus omitted", and Lemmas 1–3 are stated without proof. A formalization makes the induction checkable and yields a reusable library of L♮-convexity on real vectors with domains, used by the wider family of inventory models built on the same technique. None of these results is known to be machine-checked.

Difficulty

The obvious induction, that each step of the recursion preserves L♮-concavity, fails at the depletion problem (5): its constraint set is not L♮-convex, because of the upper bound a≤sl−k∨dta \le s_{l-k} \vee d_ta≤sl−k​∨dt​, so Lemma 2 does not apply. The bound must first be shown inactive, which needs a quantitative estimate of how the profit-to-go changes when backorders are added, a property of the value function itself.

Lemma 3 handles a scalar decision, while Theorem 1 has a pair (sl,d)(s_l, d)(sl​,d) and needs the componentwise-largest maximizer; every supremum and expectation must also be shown to be finite.

Formalization scope

  • Carrier. The paper treats F∈{R,Z}\mathbb{F} \in \{\mathbb{R}, \mathbb{Z}\}F∈{R,Z} at once. The mission formalizes the real case only.

  • L♮-convexity. Functions are real-valued on an explicit domain set, which is the paper's own convention for "L♮-convex on a set". The submodularity characterization is not used as the definition.

  • Indexing. States are Fin L → ℝ with L=l−1≥1L = l - 1 \ge 1L=l−1≥1, indexed from 0, and the lead time satisfies k≤Lk \le Lk≤L. The paper's sl−ks_{l-k}sl−k​ is coordinate L−kL - kL−k of (s1,…,sl)(s_1, \dots, s_l)(s1​,…,sl​): at k=0k = 0k=0 it is the decision sls_lsl​, and at k=Lk = Lk=L it is s1s_1s1​.

  • Time. Time is counted in periods to go, which is faithful because the data are stationary. f 0 = 0 is fT+1f_{T+1}fT+1​. The parts of Theorem 1 about gtg_tgt​, ϕt\phi_tϕt​ and decisions cover the decision periods t≤Tt \le Tt≤T.

  • Suprema and expectations. Every maximum is sSup of the image of a nonempty feasible set that is bounded above. Expectations are Bochner integrals against the noise law μ\muμ.

  • Optimal decisions. Largest optimal decisions are hypotheses at the points compared; at γ=1\gamma = 1γ=1, k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 no largest order-up-to level exists in the last period.

  • Standing assumptions. All the §3 assumptions (nonnegative costs, γ∈[0,1]\gamma \in [0,1]γ∈[0,1], strictly decreasing PPP, continuous concave revenue, zero-mean noise with support in [A,B][A, B][A,B], d‾+A≥0\underline d + A \ge 0d​+A≥0) are fields of the model structure. The §4 assumption c≤h−/(1−γ)c \le h^-/(1-\gamma)c≤h−/(1−γ) is a hypothesis (1−γ)c≤h−(1-\gamma)c \le h^-(1−γ)c≤h− of every §4 statement.

  • Corrected slips.

    • The paper sets ft=+∞f_t = +\inftyft​=+∞ off S\mathcal{S}S, a slip for −∞-\infty−∞. The Lean evaluates ftf_tft​ on S\mathcal{S}S only.
    • In Lemma 3, "ξ(x)+ω∈dom(f)\xi(x) + \omega \in \mathrm{dom}(f)ξ(x)+ω∈dom(f)" reads x+ωe∈dom(f)x + \omega e \in \mathrm{dom}(f)x+ωe∈dom(f).
    • The final "<0< 0<0" of (9) is stated as "≤0\le 0≤0". It is an equality when h−=0h^- = 0h−=0 and either γ=1\gamma = 1γ=1 or θ=0\theta = 0θ=0.
    • Proposition 1 needs γ<1\gamma < 1γ<1 for its quotient, and it asserts that dt∨s1d_t \vee s_1dt​∨s1​ is optimal, not that it is unique.
  • Ruled-out formalizations. Any of the following would trivialize the mission:

    • defining ftf_tft​ as an arbitrary L♮-concave function, or taking the continuation in ϕt\phi_tϕt​ as a hypothesis-bound function;
    • dropping the upper bound a≤sl−k∨dta \le s_{l-k} \vee d_ta≤sl−k​∨dt​ from the depletion interval;
    • restricting to l=2l = 2l=2.

    The value functions here are the model's own recursion, for every l≥2l \ge 2l≥2.

  • What is needed. L♮-convexity on Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn with domains (shifts, sums, expectations, partial maximization, comparative statics for largest maximizers) and integrability of gtg_tgt​ in the noise; all reusable. Proofs of single milestones are welcome.

  • Source. The source is the published Operations Research article; in the copy held, printed page = PDF page + 282.

Selected references

  • X. Chen, Z. Pang, L. Pan, Coordinating Inventory Control and Pricing Strategies for Perishable Products, Operations Research 62(2):284–300, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1261
  • P. Zipkin, On the Structure of Lost-Sales Inventory Models, Operations Research 56(4):937–944, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0482
  • K. Murota, Discrete Convex Analysis, SIAM Monographs on Discrete Mathematics and Applications, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898718508
  • B. Fries, Optimal Ordering Policy for a Perishable Commodity with Fixed Lifetime, Operations Research 23(1):46–61, 1975. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.23.1.46
  • S. Nahmias, Perishable Inventory Theory: A Review, Operations Research 30(4):680–708, 1982. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.30.4.680
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On the Optimality of Affine Policies for Budgeted Uncertainty Sets 3: With a Network Recourse Matrix, the Optimal Affine Policy Costs m/2 − 1 While the Adjustable Optimum Is 0Research Paper

Why the sign of the recourse matrix matters

A two-stage adjustable robust linear program chooses a first-stage decision xxx before an uncertain right-hand side hhh is revealed, and a second-stage (recourse) decision y(h)y(h)y(h) afterwards, minimising the worst case over an uncertainty set U\mathcal UU of the total cost. Computing the optimal value zAR(U)z_{AR}(\mathcal U)zAR​(U) is hard in general (Feige et al., 2007), and the standard tractable restriction is to affine policies y(h)=Ph+qy(h)=Ph+qy(h)=Ph+q (Ben-Tal et al., 2004), whose optimal value zAff(U)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U) is computed by a single linear program.

El Housni and Goyal (arXiv:1807.00163v2) show that, when the recourse matrix BBB is non-negative and U\mathcal UU is a budget of uncertainty set, zAffz_{Aff}zAff​ is within a factor O(log⁡n/log⁡log⁡n)O(\log n/\log\log n)O(logn/loglogn) of zARz_{AR}zAR​. Their Section 7 asks whether the non-negativity of BBB is needed, and answers with a family of two-stage lot-sizing instances whose recourse matrix is a network matrix with entries in {−1,0,1}\{-1,0,1\}{−1,0,1}. On this family the adjustable problem has value 000 while every affine policy costs at least m/2−1m/2-1m/2−1. Lot-sizing and transportation recourse are among the most common uses of two-stage robust optimisation (see Bertsimas and de Ruiter, 2016), so the instance is a natural one, not an artefact.

Lower bounds on the gap between affine and adjustable policies were known before (Bertsimas and Goyal, 2012); the point of the present family is that the adjustable value is exactly 000, so the ratio zAff/zARz_{Aff}/z_{AR}zAff​/zAR​ is infinite and the difference zAff−zARz_{Aff}-z_{AR}zAff​−zAR​ grows linearly in mmm.

Setting

The lot-sizing problem (7.1). There are mmm nodes. Node iii stores inventory xix_ixi​ at cost cic_ici​ per unit, up to a capacity KiK_iKi​, and faces an uncertain demand hih_ihi​. After hhh is revealed, inventory may be shipped from node iii to node jjj in amount yij(h)≥0y_{ij}(h)\ge0yij​(h)≥0 at cost dijd_{ij}dij​ per unit. A solution (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) is feasible when 0≤xi≤Ki0\le x_i\le K_i0≤xi​≤Ki​ and, for every h∈Uh\in\mathcal Uh∈U,

xi+∑jyji(h)−∑jyij(h) ≥ hi(i∈[m]).x_i+\sum_{j}y_{ji}(h)-\sum_j y_{ij}(h)\ \ge\ h_i\qquad(i\in[m]).xi​+j∑​yji​(h)−j∑​yij​(h) ≥ hi​(i∈[m]).

The objective is the first-stage cost ∑icixi\sum_ic_ix_i∑i​ci​xi​ plus the worst case over h∈Uh\in\mathcal Uh∈U of the transportation cost ∑ijdijyij(h)\sum_{ij}d_{ij}y_{ij}(h)∑ij​dij​yij​(h). The optimum over all rules h↦y(h)h\mapsto y(h)h↦y(h) is zAR(U)z_{AR}(\mathcal U)zAR​(U), and the optimum over affine rules y(h)=Ph+qy(h)=Ph+qy(h)=Ph+q (one row of PPP per arc, one column per node) is zAff(U)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U).

The family (7.2). Let m=2km=2km=2k, and split the nodes into J1J_1J1​ and J2J_2J2​ with ∣J1∣=∣J2∣=k|J_1|=|J_2|=k∣J1​∣=∣J2​∣=k. Set ci=0c_i=0ci​=0 on J1J_1J1​ and ci=1c_i=1ci​=1 on J2J_2J2​, Ki=1K_i=1Ki​=1 everywhere, dij=0d_{ij}=0dij​=0 for i∈J1i\in J_1i∈J1​, j∈J2j\in J_2j∈J2​, and dij=∞d_{ij}=\inftydij​=∞ otherwise. The uncertainty set is

U={h∈[0,1]m ∣ ∑i=1mhi≤m/2}.\mathcal U=\Big\{h\in[0,1]^m\ \Big|\ \sum_{i=1}^m h_i\le m/2\Big\}.U={h∈[0,1]m ​ i=1∑m​hi​≤m/2}.

Inventory can thus move only from J1J_1J1​ to J2J_2J2​, at no cost; stocking J1J_1J1​ is free and stocking J2J_2J2​ costs one per unit.

In the Lean development the general problem is the structure LotSizing N E (nodes N, usable arcs E with tail src, head tgt, distances d), with the predicate Feasible, the cost cost, and the sets adjustableValues, affineValues of objective values. The family is lotSizingFamily k, on nodes Fin k ⊕ Fin k and arcs Fin k × Fin k.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 7.1

For every k≥1k\ge1k≥1,

zAR(U)=0andzAff(U)=m2−1=k−1,z_{AR}(\mathcal U)=0\qquad\text{and}\qquad z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)=\frac m2-1=k-1,zAR​(U)=0andzAff​(U)=2m​−1=k−1,

each stated as IsLeast of the corresponding set of objective values, which asserts that the value is attained and is the minimum. The unboundedness of the gap, zAff−zAR=k−1→∞z_{Aff}-z_{AR}=k-1\to\inftyzAff​−zAR​=k−1→∞, is immediate.

Milestones (Appendix D, in proof order)

  1. The first-stage decision x=1J1x=\mathbb 1_{J_1}x=1J1​​ admits a second-stage policy with cost 000 in every scenario (p. 35).
  2. (D.3), for k≥2k\ge2k≥2: every feasible affine solution has xi=1x_i=1xi​=1 on J1J_1J1​, and its flow on arc (i,j)(i,j)(i,j) depends on hih_ihi​ only, with P(i,j),i+qij=0P_{(i,j),i}+q_{ij}=0P(i,j),i​+qij​=0 (p. 36).
  3. For k≥2k\ge2k≥2, every feasible affine solution satisfies xj+qℓj≥1x_j+q_{\ell j}\ge1xj​+qℓj​≥1 for ℓ∈J1\ell\in J_1ℓ∈J1​, j∈J2j\in J_2j∈J2​ (pp. 36–37).
  4. Every feasible affine solution has ∑j∈J2xj≥m/2−1\sum_{j\in J_2}x_j\ge m/2-1∑j∈J2​​xj​≥m/2−1, hence zAff≥m/2−1z_{Aff}\ge m/2-1zAff​≥m/2−1 (p. 37).
  5. The explicit affine solution x=1−emx=\mathbb 1-e_mx=1−em​, yim(h)=1−hiy_{im}(h)=1-h_iyim​(h)=1−hi​, is feasible and costs m/2−1m/2-1m/2−1 (p. 37).

Significance

The result. The approximation guarantees of the paper (O(log⁡n/log⁡log⁡n)O(\log n/\log\log n)O(logn/loglogn) for budget sets, O(log⁡2n/log⁡log⁡n)O(\log^2 n/\log\log n)O(log2n/loglogn) for disjoint constrained budgets) assume B≥0B\ge0B≥0. Lemma 7.1 shows that this assumption is not a convenience of the proof: with a network recourse matrix no bound on zAff/zARz_{Aff}/z_{AR}zAff​/zAR​ of any form holds, even for a budget set and a bipartite network. Any extension of the guarantees to transportation or flow recourse must therefore change the policy class or add structure, which is the open direction the paper states after the lemma.

Formalizing it. The lemma is proved in the paper; it has not been machine-checked. The mission produces a reusable definition of the two-stage robust lot-sizing problem with arc-based recourse, the precise instance family, and checked versions of the five steps of Appendix D. Two of those steps hold only for m≥4m\ge4m≥4 and one is printed with its indices swapped (see the scope section); the formal statements make those boundaries explicit.

Difficulty

The adjustable half is a transportation argument, and the affine upper bound is a direct verification of one explicit solution. The substance is the affine lower bound, which must hold for every feasible affine solution, not for a particular one. Comparing an affine policy with the adjustable optimum on a few extreme scenarios gives nothing: on any single scenario an affine policy can match the adjustable cost. What fails for affine policies is simultaneous feasibility over the whole of U\mathcal UU, and the lower bound has to extract a cost from that requirement alone. It is also sensitive to the size of the instance: two of the intermediate steps of Appendix D are false for m=2m=2m=2, so a formal proof has to treat small mmm separately.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Vectors are functions on finite types with the componentwise order; indices are 0-based. The second stage is a rule y:RN→REy:\mathbb R^N\to\mathbb R^Ey:RN→RE, which gives the same values as choosing y(h)y(h)y(h) separately per scenario. The epigraph variable zzz of (7.1) appears through the sets of objective values ttt with ∑icixi+∑adaya(h)≤t\sum_ic_ix_i+\sum_a d_a y_a(h)\le t∑i​ci​xi​+∑a​da​ya​(h)≤t for all h∈Uh\in\mathcal Uh∈U.
  • Infinite distances. Arcs with dij=∞d_{ij}=\inftydij​=∞ are omitted rather than given an extended-real cost: a finite-cost solution never uses them, so no optimal value changes, and App. D itself works with the reduced constraints (D.1)–(D.2) and with a matrix PPP having "one row per edge". The kept arcs J1×J2J_1\times J_2J1​×J2​ have d=0d=0d=0, and the cost keeps the term ∑adaya(h)\sum_a d_a y_a(h)∑a​da​ya​(h) so that (7.1) is visible.
  • Values as IsLeast. No real infimum is used, so "z=0z=0z=0" cannot hold on an empty feasible set; feasibility includes 0≤x≤K0\le x\le K0≤x≤K, Ph+q≥0Ph+q\ge0Ph+q≥0 on all of U\mathcal UU, and the coverage constraint at every node, including the outflow constraint (D.2) at J1J_1J1​.
  • Sizes. The paper's "mmm even" is m=2km=2km=2k. The goal assumes k≥1k\ge1k≥1; at k=0k=0k=0 the affine value would be 0≠−10\ne-10=−1.
  • Corrections, disclosed in the items. (i) The paper builds the zero-cost adjustable policy only at extreme points of U\mathcal UU; the milestone quantifies over all of U\mathcal UU, as feasibility requires. (ii) (D.3) and the bound xj+qℓj≥1x_j+q_{\ell j}\ge1xj​+qℓj​≥1 are false for m=2m=2m=2 (explicit counterexamples are in the items' notes) and carry the hypothesis k≥2k\ge2k≥2. (iii) "for any j∈J1j\in J_1j∈J1​ and for any ℓ∈J2\ell\in J_2ℓ∈J2​" on p. 37 has the indices swapped and is stated with ℓ∈J1\ell\in J_1ℓ∈J1​, j∈J2j\in J_2j∈J2​.
  • Not formalized. That (7.1) has a network recourse matrix with entries in {−1,0,1}\{-1,0,1\}{−1,0,1} is descriptive and is not stated; total unimodularity is not needed.
  • Reusable parts. LotSizing (any node set, any arc set, any uncertainty set) can host other two-stage lot-sizing and transportation results. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative arguments for the affine lower bound, are welcome.

The source is arXiv:1807.00163v2; its printed page numbers equal the PDF's.

Selected references

  • O. El Housni, V. Goyal, On the Optimality of Affine Policies for Budgeted Uncertainty Sets, arXiv:1807.00163v2, 2019 (Mathematics of Operations Research 46(2), 2021). https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.00163v2
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Goryashko, E. Guslitzer, A. Nemirovski, Adjustable robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Mathematical Programming 99(2), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-003-0454-y
  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power and limitations of affine policies in two-stage adaptive optimization, Mathematical Programming 134(2), 2012. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4
  • D. Bertsimas, F. de Ruiter, Duality in two-stage adaptive linear optimization: Faster computation and stronger bounds, INFORMS Journal on Computing 28(3), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/ijoc.2016.0689
  • U. Feige, K. Jain, M. Mahdian, V. Mirrokni, Robust combinatorial optimization with exponential scenarios, IPCO 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-72792-7_33
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Quantum Information·Captain: Lucas

Superconducting Quantum Computing: Universality of Single-Qubit Gates and iSWAPTextbook

Motivation

Superconducting circuits built from capacitors, inductors and Josephson junctions are the dominant platform for current quantum processors (Google, IBM, Rigetti, IQM and others). The source article — the Wikipedia entry Superconducting quantum computing — states two facts about the gate model on this hardware that this mission makes precise:

  1. two-qubit gates such as iSWAP "can be achieved through coherent exchange" between two coupled qubits, whose interaction is described by the coupling Hamiltonian H^=ℏJ2(σ1xσ2x+σ1yσ2y)\hat H=\frac{\hbar J}{2}(\sigma_1^x\sigma_2^x+\sigma_1^y\sigma_2^y)H^=2ℏJ​(σ1x​σ2x​+σ1y​σ2y​) (section Transmon);
  2. "single-qubit gates combined with two-qubit gates form a universal gate set" (section Criteria for a viable quantum processor), and, for instance, a three-qubit Toffoli gate "is implemented using a combination of single and two-qubit gates" (section Quantum gates).

Statement 2 is a mathematical theorem, not an engineering claim: it says that every unitary operation on nnn qubits can be written exactly as a finite product of the hardware's elementary gates. Its classical form with CNOT as the two-qubit gate is due to Barenco et al. (1995); the iSWAP version follows because CNOT can be built from two iSWAPs and single-qubit gates (Schuch–Siewert 2003).

Timeline.

  • 1995 — DiVincenzo shows two-qubit gates are universal; Barenco et al. prove that single-qubit gates and CNOT generate all nnn-qubit unitaries exactly.
  • 2003 — Schuch and Siewert analyse the XY (iSWAP-type) interaction and give a CNOT construction using two iSWAP gates.
  • 2007 — the transmon is introduced; capacitively coupled transmons realise the XY interaction.
  • 2012 — a Toffoli gate is demonstrated on three superconducting transmon qubits.

Setting

An nnn-qubit register has computational basis states ∣x⟩|x\rangle∣x⟩ labelled by bit strings x∈{0,1}nx\in\{0,1\}^nx∈{0,1}n; its operations form the unitary group U(2n)U(2^n)U(2n). For a 2×22\times22×2 unitary UUU and a qubit kkk, the single-qubit gate U(k)U^{(k)}U(k) applies UUU to qubit kkk and leaves the others unchanged. For a 4×44\times44×4 matrix GGG and an ordered pair of distinct qubits (i,j)(i,j)(i,j), G(i,j)G^{(i,j)}G(i,j) applies GGG to qubits i,ji,ji,j (qubit iii is the first tensor factor). Write

Sn={U(k):U∈U(2), k a qubit},Gn(G)={G(i,j):i≠j}.\mathcal S_n=\{U^{(k)} : U\in U(2),\ k\text{ a qubit}\},\qquad \mathcal G_n(G)=\{G^{(i,j)} : i\neq j\}.Sn​={U(k):U∈U(2), k a qubit},Gn​(G)={G(i,j):i=j}.

The gates used are

iSWAP=(100000i00i000001),CNOT=(1000010000010010)\mathrm{iSWAP}=\begin{pmatrix}1&0&0&0\\0&0&i&0\\0&i&0&0\\0&0&0&1\end{pmatrix},\qquad \mathrm{CNOT}=\begin{pmatrix}1&0&0&0\\0&1&0&0\\0&0&0&1\\0&0&1&0\end{pmatrix}iSWAP=​1000​00i0​0i00​0001​​,CNOT=​1000​0100​0001​0010​​

in the basis ∣00⟩,∣01⟩,∣10⟩,∣11⟩|00\rangle,|01\rangle,|10\rangle,|11\rangle∣00⟩,∣01⟩,∣10⟩,∣11⟩, and the Toffoli gate ∣a,b,c⟩↦∣a,b,c⊕ab⟩|a,b,c\rangle\mapsto|a,b,c\oplus ab\rangle∣a,b,c⟩↦∣a,b,c⊕ab⟩. Time evolution under a Hamiltonian HHH is U(t)=exp⁡(−itH/ℏ)U(t)=\exp(-itH/\hbar)U(t)=exp(−itH/ℏ), and the coupling Hamiltonian is H=ℏJ2(σx⊗σx+σy⊗σy)H=\frac{\hbar J}{2}(\sigma^x\otimes\sigma^x+\sigma^y\otimes\sigma^y)H=2ℏJ​(σx⊗σx+σy⊗σy). A two-level unitary acts as the identity outside the span of two basis vectors.

Formalization targets

Goal — universality of single-qubit gates and iSWAP

For every n≥1n\ge1n≥1,

⟨ Sn∪Gn(iSWAP) ⟩=U(2n).\big\langle\,\mathcal S_n\cup\mathcal G_n(\mathrm{iSWAP})\,\big\rangle=U(2^n).⟨Sn​∪Gn​(iSWAP)⟩=U(2n).

Milestones

  1. Coherent exchange: exp⁡ ⁣(−itℏH)=iSWAP†\exp\!\big(-\tfrac{it}{\hbar}H\big)=\mathrm{iSWAP}^\daggerexp(−ℏit​H)=iSWAP† at t=π/(2J)t=\pi/(2J)t=π/(2J), for ℏ,J≠0\hbar,J\ne0ℏ,J=0.
  2. CNOT=(A⊗B) iSWAP (C⊗D) iSWAP (E⊗F)\mathrm{CNOT}=(A\otimes B)\,\mathrm{iSWAP}\,(C\otimes D)\,\mathrm{iSWAP}\,(E\otimes F)CNOT=(A⊗B)iSWAP(C⊗D)iSWAP(E⊗F) for some A,…,F∈U(2)A,\dots,F\in U(2)A,…,F∈U(2).
  3. Two-level unitaries generate U(Cι)U(\mathbb C^\iota)U(Cι) for every finite ι\iotaι.
  4. ⟨ Sn∪Gn(CNOT) ⟩=U(2n)\big\langle\,\mathcal S_n\cup\mathcal G_n(\mathrm{CNOT})\,\big\rangle=U(2^n)⟨Sn​∪Gn​(CNOT)⟩=U(2n) for n≥1n\ge1n≥1.
  5. Toffoli∈⟨ S3∪G3(CNOT) ⟩\mathrm{Toffoli}\in\big\langle\,\mathcal S_3\cup\mathcal G_3(\mathrm{CNOT})\,\big\rangleToffoli∈⟨S3​∪G3​(CNOT)⟩.

Significance

The goal theorem is the formal justification for compiling arbitrary quantum algorithms to superconducting hardware whose native entangling interaction is of XY/iSWAP type: any target unitary, however large, has an exact decomposition into the hardware's elementary operations. Milestone 1 connects the abstract gate to the physical Hamiltonian; milestones 3–4 are the textbook universality theorem in the CNOT form, reusable for any other two-qubit gate that can synthesise CNOT; milestone 5 is the Toffoli construction mentioned in the source.

All results are classical and proved in the literature. To the best of the drafter's knowledge they are not yet available as machine-checked statements in Mathlib in this form; the mission's contribution is a complete formal development.

Difficulty

The naive route — "decompose into two-level unitaries, then implement each with gates" — hides real work: a two-level unitary on basis states ∣x⟩,∣y⟩|x\rangle,|y\rangle∣x⟩,∣y⟩ with x,yx,yx,y differing in many bits must be conjugated by a Gray-code sequence of controlled-NOT style gates into one acting on a single qubit, controlled on all others, and multiply-controlled single-qubit gates must then be reduced to single-qubit gates and CNOTs. Keeping indices, tensor embeddings and controls consistent over nnn qubits is the main formal burden. Milestone 1 requires computing a matrix exponential exactly, which in Lean means handling NormedSpace.exp on a non-diagonal matrix.

Formalization scope

  • Basis states of nnn qubits are functions Fin n → Fin 2; two-qubit operators are indexed by Fin 2 × Fin 2 with the Kronecker product ⊗ₖ, first factor = first qubit.
  • Universality is exact: the subgroup generated (Subgroup.closure) inside Matrix.unitaryGroup equals ⊤; no approximation or topological closure is involved, which is why the full continuous family U(2)U(2)U(2) of single-qubit gates is included.
  • n=0n=0n=0 is excluded: with no qubits there are no generators, while U(1)U(1)U(1) is nontrivial.
  • The gate sets contain only the stated gates; a formalization that adds arbitrary two-qubit unitaries to the generators would make the goal trivially true and is not acceptable.
  • Needed infrastructure: tensor embeddings of gates into nnn-qubit registers, controlled gates, Gray-code arguments, and exponentials of 2×22\times22×2 / 4×44\times44×4 matrices. Lemmas about embeddings (onQubit, onPair) and multiply-controlled gates are reusable for any quantum-circuit mission.

Selected references

  • Wikipedia, Superconducting quantum computing (sections Quantum gates, Criteria for a viable quantum processor, Transmon). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconducting_quantum_computing
  • A. Barenco, C. H. Bennett, R. Cleve, D. P. DiVincenzo, N. Margolus, P. Shor, T. Sleator, J. Smolin, H. Weinfurter, Elementary gates for quantum computation, Phys. Rev. A 52, 3457 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevA.52.3457
  • N. Schuch, J. Siewert, Natural two-qubit gate for quantum computation using the XY interaction, Phys. Rev. A 67, 032301 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevA.67.032301
  • M. A. Nielsen, I. L. Chuang, Quantum Computation and Quantum Information, Cambridge University Press (2000), §4.5.
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Quantum Information·Captain: Lucas

Grover's Algorithm (Wikipedia): Quantum Search with Success Probability 1 − 1/N in ⌈π√N/4⌉ IterationsTextbook

Motivation

Grover's algorithm is a quantum algorithm for unstructured search: given black-box access to a function f ⁣:{0,1,…,N−1}→{0,1}f\colon\{0,1,\dots,N-1\}\to\{0,1\}f:{0,1,…,N−1}→{0,1} that takes the value 111 at exactly one input ω\omegaω, it finds ω\omegaω with high probability using O(N)O(\sqrt N)O(N​) evaluations of fff. It was devised by Lov Grover in 1996 (Grover, STOC 1996). Classically the same task needs Θ(N)\Theta(N)Θ(N) evaluations, since there is no better approach than trying the inputs one after the other. Bennett, Bernstein, Brassard and Vazirani showed that every quantum algorithm needs Ω(N)\Omega(\sqrt N)Ω(N​) evaluations (BBBV, SIAM J. Comput. 1997), so the quadratic speedup is optimal.

Because many problems contain exhaustive search as a subroutine, the algorithm and its generalization, amplitude amplification, speed up a broad class of algorithms: brute-force attacks on symmetric-key cryptography (a 128-bit key in roughly 2642^{64}264 iterations), algorithms for NP-complete problems such as 3SAT, and black-box problems such as element distinctness and the collision problem.

This mission follows the presentation of the algorithm and of its analysis in the Wikipedia article Grover's algorithm (revision 1373498442), which gives two analyses of the same algorithm, a geometric proof and an algebraic proof, following Nielsen–Chuang 2010, Chapter 6.

Setting

Fix N≥1N \ge 1N≥1. The state space is H=CN\mathcal H = \mathbb C^NH=CN with standard basis ∣0⟩,…,∣N−1⟩|0\rangle,\dots,|N-1\rangle∣0⟩,…,∣N−1⟩ and inner product ⟨u∣v⟩=∑xux‾vx\langle u|v\rangle = \sum_x \overline{u_x}v_x⟨u∣v⟩=∑x​ux​​vx​. Let f ⁣:{0,…,N−1}→{0,1}f\colon\{0,\dots,N-1\}\to\{0,1\}f:{0,…,N−1}→{0,1} have exactly one index ω\omegaω with f(ω)=1f(\omega) = 1f(ω)=1.

  • The oracle is the unitary Uω∣x⟩=(−1)f(x)∣x⟩U_\omega|x\rangle = (-1)^{f(x)}|x\rangleUω​∣x⟩=(−1)f(x)∣x⟩. The standard oracle acts on H⊗C2\mathcal H\otimes\mathbb C^2H⊗C2 (one extra ancillary qubit) by Uf∣x⟩∣y⟩=∣x⟩∣y⊕f(x)⟩U_f|x\rangle|y\rangle = |x\rangle|y\oplus f(x)\rangleUf​∣x⟩∣y⟩=∣x⟩∣y⊕f(x)⟩.
  • The uniform superposition is ∣s⟩=1N∑x=0N−1∣x⟩|s\rangle = \frac{1}{\sqrt N}\sum_{x=0}^{N-1}|x\rangle∣s⟩=N​1​∑x=0N−1​∣x⟩, and the Grover diffusion operator is Us=2∣s⟩⟨s∣−IU_s = 2|s\rangle\langle s| - IUs​=2∣s⟩⟨s∣−I.
  • A Grover iteration applies UωU_\omegaUω​ and then UsU_sUs​, i.e. the operator UsUωU_sU_\omegaUs​Uω​.

The algorithm. (1) Initialize the system to ∣s⟩|s\rangle∣s⟩. (2) Perform the Grover iteration rrr times. (3) Measure the resulting state (UsUω)r∣s⟩(U_sU_\omega)^r|s\rangle(Us​Uω​)r∣s⟩ in the computational basis; by the Born rule the outcome is ω\omegaω with probability ∣⟨ω∣(UsUω)r∣s⟩∣2|\langle\omega|(U_sU_\omega)^r|s\rangle|^2∣⟨ω∣(Us​Uω​)r∣s⟩∣2.

Two further objects appear in the analysis: the ket ∣s′⟩=1N−1∑x≠ω∣x⟩|s'\rangle = \frac{1}{\sqrt{N-1}}\sum_{x\ne\omega}|x\rangle∣s′⟩=N−1​1​∑x=ω​∣x⟩ perpendicular to ∣ω⟩|\omega\rangle∣ω⟩, and the angles θ=2arcsin⁡1N\theta = 2\arcsin\frac{1}{\sqrt N}θ=2arcsinN​1​ (geometric proof) and t=arcsin⁡1N=θ/2t = \arcsin\frac{1}{\sqrt N} = \theta/2t=arcsinN​1​=θ/2 (algebraic proof).

Formalization targets

Goal — success probability 1−1/N1 - 1/N1−1/N within ⌈π4N⌉\lceil\frac\pi4\sqrt N\rceil⌈4π​N​⌉ iterations

∃ r≤⌈π4N⌉:∣⟨ω∣(UsUω)r∣s⟩∣2≥1−1N.\exists\, r \le \left\lceil\frac{\pi}{4}\sqrt N\right\rceil:\qquad \bigl|\langle\omega|(U_sU_\omega)^r|s\rangle\bigr|^2 \ge 1 - \frac1N .∃r≤⌈4π​N​⌉:​⟨ω∣(Us​Uω​)r∣s⟩​2≥1−N1​.

This combines the article's headline claims: the algorithm outputs ω\omegaω with probability at least 1/21/21/2 (for N≥2N \ge 2N≥2) using O(N)O(\sqrt N)O(N​) applications of UωU_\omegaUω​, the success probability approaches 111 for N≫1N \gg 1N≫1, and the number of iterations satisfies r(N)≤⌈π4N⌉r(N) \le \lceil\frac\pi4\sqrt N\rceilr(N)≤⌈4π​N​⌉. The goal does not fix rrr.

Milestones

Listed in the article's order.

  1. Alternative oracle definition: Uf(∣x⟩⊗∣−⟩)=(Uω∣x⟩)⊗∣−⟩U_f\bigl(|x\rangle\otimes|-\rangle\bigr) = (U_\omega|x\rangle)\otimes|-\rangleUf​(∣x⟩⊗∣−⟩)=(Uω​∣x⟩)⊗∣−⟩ with ∣−⟩=12(∣0⟩−∣1⟩)|-\rangle = \frac{1}{\sqrt2}(|0\rangle - |1\rangle)∣−⟩=2​1​(∣0⟩−∣1⟩).
  2. Unitarity: UωU_\omegaUω​ and UsU_sUs​ are unitary.
  3. Iteration count: r(N)=⌊π/(4t)⌋≤⌈π4N⌉r(N) = \lfloor\pi/(4t)\rfloor \le \lceil\frac\pi4\sqrt N\rceilr(N)=⌊π/(4t)⌋≤⌈4π​N​⌉.
  4. Geometric proof: on span{∣s′⟩,∣ω⟩}\mathrm{span}\{|s'\rangle,|\omega\rangle\}span{∣s′⟩,∣ω⟩}, UωU_\omegaUω​ is the reflection across ∣s′⟩|s'\rangle∣s′⟩; Uω=I−2∣ω⟩⟨ω∣U_\omega = I - 2|\omega\rangle\langle\omega|Uω​=I−2∣ω⟩⟨ω∣ (Householder form); UsU_sUs​ is the reflection through ∣s⟩|s\rangle∣s⟩; UsUωU_sU_\omegaUs​Uω​ rotates the plane by θ\thetaθ; ⟨s′∣s⟩=(N−1)/N\langle s'|s\rangle = \sqrt{(N-1)/N}⟨s′∣s⟩=(N−1)/N​; and the exact success probability is
∣⟨ω∣(UsUω)r∣s⟩∣2=sin⁡2 ⁣((r+12)θ).\bigl|\langle\omega|(U_sU_\omega)^r|s\rangle\bigr|^2 = \sin^2\!\bigl((r+\tfrac12)\theta\bigr).​⟨ω∣(Us​Uω​)r∣s⟩​2=sin2((r+21​)θ).
  1. Algebraic proof: the action of UsU_sUs​ and UωU_\omegaUω​ on span{∣ω⟩,∣s⟩}\mathrm{span}\{|\omega\rangle,|s\rangle\}span{∣ω⟩,∣s⟩} by explicit 2×22\times 22×2 matrices; the Jordan form UsUω=M diag(e2it,e−2it) M−1U_sU_\omega = M\,\mathrm{diag}(e^{2it},e^{-2it})\,M^{-1}Us​Uω​=Mdiag(e2it,e−2it)M−1 and its rrr-th power; the success probability sin⁡2((2r+1)t)\sin^2((2r+1)t)sin2((2r+1)t) computed in coordinates; and, stopping at r=⌊π/4t⌋r = \lfloor\pi/4t\rfloorr=⌊π/4t⌋, error at most 1/N1/N1/N.

Significance

The result. The goal says that unstructured search over NNN items costs O(N)O(\sqrt N)O(N​) oracle queries on a quantum computer, with failure probability at most 1/N1/N1/N for a single run, and hence that the expected number of queries until ω\omegaω is found is still O(N)O(\sqrt N)O(N​). It is the quantitative content behind the use of Grover's algorithm as a subroutine and behind its role in post-quantum key-length recommendations.

Formalizing it. The result is classical and fully proved on paper. The work here is to formalize the article's two proofs: the reflection/rotation picture and the algebraic diagonalization, together with the equivalence of the two oracle models and the explicit bound ⌈π4N⌉\lceil\frac\pi4\sqrt N\rceil⌈4π​N​⌉ stated in the article. A separate platform mission, Grover's Algorithm, already contains machine-checked proofs of the amplitude formula sin⁡((2k+1)θ)\sin((2k+1)\theta)sin((2k+1)θ) and of a success guarantee with iteration bound ⌈π/(4arcsin⁡(1/N))⌉\lceil\pi/(4\arcsin(1/\sqrt N))\rceil⌈π/(4arcsin(1/N​))⌉, in a model where the oracle is given by the marked index. This mission differs in that it derives the oracle from the function fff, includes the ancilla-based standard oracle, the Householder and reflection statements, the algebraic Jordan-form analysis, and the bound ⌈π4N⌉\lceil\frac\pi4\sqrt N\rceil⌈4π​N​⌉ in terms of N\sqrt NN​. The lower bound of Bennett–Bernstein–Brassard–Vazirani (optimality) is out of scope.

Difficulty

None of the steps is deep; the difficulty lies in the bookkeeping. The plane span{∣ω⟩,∣s⟩}\mathrm{span}\{|\omega\rangle, |s\rangle\}span{∣ω⟩,∣s⟩} is not spanned by an orthonormal pair, so the matrices of the algebraic proof are in a non-orthogonal spanning set, and the probability formula must be transported from that 2×22\times22×2 picture back to the NNN-dimensional state. Passing from the exact formula sin⁡2((r+12)θ)\sin^2((r+\frac12)\theta)sin2((r+21​)θ) to the bound 1−1/N1 - 1/N1−1/N requires choosing an integer rrr, controlling (2r+1)t(2r+1)t(2r+1)t to within ttt of π/2\pi/2π/2, and comparing arcsin⁡(1/N)\arcsin(1/\sqrt N)arcsin(1/N​) with 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​ to reach ⌈π4N⌉\lceil\frac\pi4\sqrt N\rceil⌈4π​N​⌉. Edge cases matter: N=1N = 1N=1 (where t=π/2t = \pi/2t=π/2, ∣s′⟩|s'\rangle∣s′⟩ is undefined and MMM is singular) and the integer rounding of r=π/4tr = \pi/4tr=π/4t.

Formalization scope

All statements import one definitions file, GroverWiki_Defs, and live in the namespace GroverWiki.

  • States are vectors Fin N → ℂ; operators are matrices Matrix (Fin N) (Fin N) ℂ acting by mulVec; the two-register space is indexed by Fin N × Fin 2. Bit values are Fin 2, so ⊕ is addition in Fin 2.
  • The oracle is built from f : Fin N → Fin 2; uniqueness of the marked item is the hypothesis ∀ x, f x = 1 ↔ x = ω.
  • The measurement probability of outcome x is ‖ψ x‖ ^ 2, applied to the state (U_s U_ω)^r |s⟩.
  • Scalars such as 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​ are real numbers cast to C\mathbb CC. For N=1N = 1N=1, Lean's conventions give ∣s′⟩=0|s'\rangle = 0∣s′⟩=0; statements about ∣s′⟩|s'\rangle∣s′⟩ or M−1M^{-1}M−1 assume N≥2N \ge 2N≥2, as the article implicitly does.
  • The article's non-integer r=π/4tr = \pi/4tr=π/4t is formalized as ⌊π/4t⌋\lfloor \pi/4t\rfloor⌊π/4t⌋, and "error O(1/N)O(1/N)O(1/N)" as the explicit bound 1/N1/N1/N.

The goal is not trivialized by the model: the state is the actual output of the algorithm, the iteration count is bounded explicitly, and the probability bound is the Born-rule probability of the marked index. Contributions of reusable lemmas on reflections and rotations in two-dimensional subspaces of CN\mathbb C^NCN are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. K. Grover, A fast quantum mechanical algorithm for database search, Proc. 28th ACM STOC, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1145/237814.237866 (arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9605043)
  • C. H. Bennett, E. Bernstein, G. Brassard, U. Vazirani, Strengths and weaknesses of quantum computing, SIAM J. Comput. 26(5), 1997. https://doi.org/10.1137/s0097539796300933
  • M. A. Nielsen, I. L. Chuang, Quantum Computation and Quantum Information, Cambridge University Press, 2010, pp. 276–305. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511976667
  • Wikipedia, Grover's algorithm, revision 1373498442. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Grover%27s_algorithm&oldid=1373498442
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AnalysisFunctional AnalysisProbability·Captain: Lucas

Hamburger Moment Problem (Wikipedia) I: Characterization and Uniqueness of SolutionsTextbook

Motivation

A sequence of real numbers (m0,m1,m2,… )(m_0, m_1, m_2, \dots)(m0​,m1​,m2​,…) often arrives as a list of moments: averages E[Xn]\mathbb E[X^n]E[Xn] of powers of a random variable, traces ⟨Tne,e⟩\langle T^n e, e\rangle⟨Tne,e⟩ of powers of a self-adjoint operator, or coefficients of a continued fraction. The Hamburger moment problem, named after Hans Ludwig Hamburger (1920–21), asks when such a list really comes from a measure on the whole real line, and, when it does, whether the measure is determined by its moments. The question sits at the junction of probability (the method of moments, identification of limit laws), spectral theory of symmetric operators and Jacobi matrices, and the theory of orthogonal polynomials; standard monographs include Shohat–Tamarkin (1943) and Schmüdgen (2017).

Timeline (as summarized in the source article and its references):

  1. 1894 — Stieltjes treats the analogous problem on [0,+∞)[0,+\infty)[0,+∞) (the Stieltjes moment problem).
  2. 1920–21 — Hamburger extends the theory to the whole real line: solvability is equivalent to positivity of the Hankel kernel (mj+k)(m_{j+k})(mj+k​).
  3. 1920s — Carleman gives a growth condition on the moments guaranteeing uniqueness (Carleman's condition); the factorial growth bound ∣mn∣≤CDnn!|m_n| \le C D^n n!∣mn​∣≤CDnn! is a special case (Reed–Simon 1975, p. 205).
  4. Later — the operator-theoretic treatment through self-adjoint extensions of the shift operator and its spectral measure becomes standard (Reed–Simon 1975, p. 145).

Setting

Let m=(mn)n≥0m = (m_n)_{n \ge 0}m=(mn​)n≥0​ be a sequence of real numbers. A solution of the Hamburger moment problem for mmm is a positive Borel measure μ\muμ on R\mathbb RR such that every power xnx^nxn is μ\muμ-integrable and

mn=∫−∞∞xn dμ(x)(n=0,1,2,… ).m_n = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} x^n \, d\mu(x) \qquad (n = 0, 1, 2, \dots).mn​=∫−∞∞​xndμ(x)(n=0,1,2,…).

The sequence mmm is a moment sequence if at least one solution exists.

The Hankel kernel of mmm is the infinite matrix A=(mj+k)j,k≥0A = (m_{j+k})_{j,k \ge 0}A=(mj+k​)j,k≥0​. It is positive definite (in the sense of the source) if

∑j,k≥0mj+k cjck‾  ≥  0\sum_{j,k \ge 0} m_{j+k}\, c_j \overline{c_k} \;\ge\; 0j,k≥0∑​mj+k​cj​ck​​≥0

for every finitary complex sequence (cj)j≥0(c_j)_{j \ge 0}(cj​)j≥0​, i.e. cj=0c_j = 0cj​=0 for all but finitely many jjj. Its finite sections are the (n+1)×(n+1)(n+1)\times(n+1)(n+1)×(n+1) Hankel matrices

Δn=(mi+j)0≤i,j≤n.\Delta_n = (m_{i+j})_{0 \le i,j \le n}.Δn​=(mi+j​)0≤i,j≤n​.

In the Lean development these objects are IsMomentMeasure m μ, IsMomentSequence m, hankelForm m c, HankelPosDef m and hankelMatrix m n, all in the namespace HamburgerMoment.

Formalization targets

Goal — Hamburger's characterization

m is a moment sequence  ⟺  ∑j,k≥0mj+kcjck‾≥0 for every finitary (cj)⊂C.m \text{ is a moment sequence} \iff \sum_{j,k \ge 0} m_{j+k} c_j \overline{c_k} \ge 0 \text{ for every finitary } (c_j) \subset \mathbb C.m is a moment sequence⟺j,k≥0∑​mj+k​cj​ck​​≥0 for every finitary (cj​)⊂C.

Milestones

  1. The identity ∑j,kmj+kcjck‾=∫∣∑jcjxj∣2 dμ(x)\sum_{j,k} m_{j+k} c_j \overline{c_k} = \int |\sum_j c_j x^j|^2 \, d\mu(x)∑j,k​mj+k​cj​ck​​=∫∣∑j​cj​xj∣2dμ(x) for any solution μ\muμ, and the resulting "only if" direction.
  2. The "if" direction: a positive definite Hankel kernel is the kernel of a moment sequence.
  3. The solution set is convex; hence a solvable problem has either a unique solution or infinitely many.
  4. Positivity of AAA gives det⁡Δn≥0\det \Delta_n \ge 0detΔn​≥0 for all nnn; if det⁡Δn=0\det \Delta_n = 0detΔn​=0 for some nnn, the solution is unique and finitely supported.
  5. Uniqueness under the growth bound ∣mn∣≤CDnn!|m_n| \le C D^n n!∣mn​∣≤CDnn!.
  6. Existence of moment sequences with more than one solution.
  7. The real-polynomial identity ∫p2 dμ=∑j,kajakmj+k≥0\int p^2 \, d\mu = \sum_{j,k} a_j a_k m_{j+k} \ge 0∫p2dμ=∑j,k​aj​ak​mj+k​≥0, and the characterization of moment sequences by positive semidefiniteness of all real Hankel matrices Δn\Delta_nΔn​.

Significance

The result. Hamburger's theorem turns an existence question about measures into a family of finite-dimensional positivity conditions that can be checked on the data. It is the basic tool behind the method of moments in probability (identifying a distribution from its moments, when the problem is determinate), behind the spectral theory of Jacobi matrices, and behind Gauss quadrature and orthogonal polynomials on the line. The uniqueness criteria decide when moments determine a law; the non-uniqueness examples (for instance the log-normal distribution) show that they do not always do so.

Formalizing it. All results here are classical and proved in the literature; to the best of the captain's knowledge none of them is currently available as a formal statement in Mathlib, which has neither moment problems nor Hankel kernels. The mission produces a reusable vocabulary (moment measures, Hankel forms and matrices) and machine-checked versions of the existence theorem, the uniqueness criteria and the non-uniqueness phenomenon.

Difficulty

The "only if" direction is a direct computation. The converse is the substance: from positivity of countably many finite quadratic forms one must produce a countably additive measure on a non-compact space with all moments matching. Compactness arguments on finite sections give measures whose low-order moments match, but mass can escape to infinity and higher moments need not converge; the source's route instead goes through the Hilbert space completion of finitary sequences, self-adjoint extensions of the (generally unbounded) shift operator and the spectral theorem for unbounded self-adjoint operators — machinery that is only partly present in Mathlib. An alternative route via positive linear functionals on polynomials (M. Riesz extension, Riesz–Markov–Kakutani) has to control the same escape of mass. The uniqueness criterion requires quasi-analyticity or Carleman-type estimates.

Formalization scope

  1. Sequences are m : ℕ → ℝ; measures are Measure ℝ on the Borel σ-algebra of R\mathbb RR. A solution must have every power xnx^nxn integrable, so in particular μ\muμ is finite with total mass m0m_0m0​.
  2. Finitary complex sequences are finitely supported functions ℕ →₀ ℂ, and the Hankel form is the finite double sum over the support. "≥0\ge 0≥0" is the order on C\mathbb CC (the value is a nonnegative real number), matching the source.
  3. Δn\Delta_nΔn​ is the real matrix indexed by Fin (n + 1); positive semidefiniteness is Mathlib's Matrix.PosSemidef.
  4. Uniqueness statements quantify over all solutions; finite support means the solution vanishes outside a finite set.

Needed infrastructure and welcome contributions: polynomial integrability under finite moments, positive linear functionals on R[x]\mathbb R[x]R[x], a Riesz–Markov or spectral-measure construction on R\mathbb RR, Vandermonde arguments for finitely supported measures, and Carleman / quasi-analyticity estimates. The definitions of moment measures and Hankel kernels are reusable for the Stieltjes and Hausdorff moment problems.

Selected references

  • Wikipedia, Hamburger moment problem, revision oldid=1356180072, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Hamburger_moment_problem&oldid=1356180072
  • H. Hamburger, Über eine Erweiterung des Stieltjesschen Momentenproblems, Math. Ann. 81 (1920), 235–319; 82 (1921), 120–164, 168–187.
  • M. Reed, B. Simon, Methods of Modern Mathematical Physics II: Fourier Analysis, Self-Adjointness, Academic Press, 1975, pp. 145, 205.
  • T. S. Chihara, An Introduction to Orthogonal Polynomials, Gordon and Breach, 1978, pp. 56, 73.
  • K. Schmüdgen, The Moment Problem, Graduate Texts in Mathematics 277, Springer, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-64546-9
  • J. A. Shohat, J. D. Tamarkin, The Problem of Moments, AMS, 1943.
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Number TheoryQuantum Information·Captain: Lucas

Shor's Algorithm (Wikipedia): Quantum Order Finding and the Reduction of FactoringTextbook

Motivation

Shor's algorithm is a quantum algorithm that finds a nontrivial factor of an integer NNN in time polynomial in log⁡N\log NlogN, and its variants compute discrete logarithms in finite cyclic groups. It was developed by Peter Shor in 1994 (Shor, FOCS 1994; Shor, SIAM J. Comput. 1997). No classical polynomial-time factoring algorithm is known; the best classical method, the general number field sieve, runs in sub-exponential time. Because the security of RSA and of finite-field and elliptic-curve Diffie–Hellman rests on the hardness of factoring and of discrete logarithms, Shor's algorithm is the main reason these schemes are considered breakable by a large fault-tolerant quantum computer, and the main motivation for post-quantum cryptography.

This mission follows the presentation of the algorithm in the Wikipedia article Shor's algorithm (revision 1378862216), which describes the quantum part through quantum phase estimation, an approach due to Kitaev (Kitaev 1995) and standard in textbooks (Nielsen–Chuang 2010).

Setting

Let 1<a<N1 < a < N1<a<N be integers with gcd⁡(a,N)=1\gcd(a, N) = 1gcd(a,N)=1. The order r=ord⁡N(a)r = \operatorname{ord}_N(a)r=ordN​(a) is the smallest positive integer with ar≡1(modN)a^r \equiv 1 \pmod Nar≡1(modN).

Classical reduction. If rrr is even and N∤ar/2+1N \nmid a^{r/2}+1N∤ar/2+1, then gcd⁡(N,ar/2−1)\gcd(N, a^{r/2}-1)gcd(N,ar/2−1) is a nontrivial factor of NNN. Factoring therefore reduces to computing orders.

Quantum order finding. Let n=⌈log⁡2N⌉n = \lceil\log_2 N\rceiln=⌈log2​N⌉ and Q=22nQ = 2^{2n}Q=22n. A state of an mmm-qubit register is a vector in C2m\mathbb C^{2^m}C2m with standard basis ∣0⟩,…,∣2m−1⟩|0\rangle, \dots, |2^m-1\rangle∣0⟩,…,∣2m−1⟩. The modular-multiplication gate is the nnn-qubit gate

U∣k⟩=∣ak mod N⟩ (0≤k<N),U∣k⟩=∣k⟩ (N≤k<2n).U|k\rangle = |ak \bmod N\rangle \ (0 \le k < N), \qquad U|k\rangle = |k\rangle \ (N \le k < 2^n).U∣k⟩=∣akmodN⟩ (0≤k<N),U∣k⟩=∣k⟩ (N≤k<2n).

With ωr=e2πi/r\omega_r = e^{2\pi i/r}ωr​=e2πi/r, the states ∣ψj⟩=r−1/2∑k=0r−1ωr−kj∣ak mod N⟩|\psi_j\rangle = r^{-1/2}\sum_{k=0}^{r-1}\omega_r^{-kj}|a^k \bmod N\rangle∣ψj​⟩=r−1/2∑k=0r−1​ωr−kj​∣akmodN⟩ are eigenvectors of UUU with eigenvalues ωrj\omega_r^jωrj​. The order-finding circuit acts on a 2n2n2n-qubit first register and the nnn-qubit second register: Hadamard gates H⊗2nH^{\otimes 2n}H⊗2n on the first register, controlled gates C-U2iC\text{-}U^{2^i}C-U2i for i=0,…,2n−1i = 0, \dots, 2n-1i=0,…,2n−1 (qubit iii of the first register controls U2iU^{2^i}U2i on the second), and the inverse quantum Fourier transform QFT22n−1\mathrm{QFT}^{-1}_{2^{2n}}QFT22n−1​ on the first register. It is applied to ∣0⟩⊗2n∣1⟩|0\rangle^{\otimes 2n}|1\rangle∣0⟩⊗2n∣1⟩ and the first register is measured, producing an outcome k∈{0,…,Q−1}k \in \{0, \dots, Q-1\}k∈{0,…,Q−1} with probability P(k)P(k)P(k). Finally the continued fractions algorithm is run on k/Qk/Qk/Q.

Formalization targets

Goal: one run of the order-finding subroutine

For every j∈{0,…,r−1}j \in \{0, \dots, r-1\}j∈{0,…,r−1},

∑k : ∣k/22n−j/r∣≤2−(2n+1)P(k)  ≥  4π2r,\sum_{k\,:\,|k/2^{2n} - j/r| \le 2^{-(2n+1)}} P(k) \;\ge\; \frac{4}{\pi^2 r},k:∣k/22n−j/r∣≤2−(2n+1)∑​P(k)≥π2r4​,

and for every such kkk some continued fraction convergent of k/22nk/2^{2n}k/22n equals j/rj/rj/r in lowest terms, i.e. has numerator j/gcd⁡(j,r)j/\gcd(j,r)j/gcd(j,r) and denominator r/gcd⁡(j,r)r/\gcd(j,r)r/gcd(j,r). Summed over jjj, a single run yields with probability at least 4/π24/\pi^24/π2 an outcome from which the continued fractions algorithm recovers some j/rj/rj/r in lowest terms.

Milestones

  1. Classical reduction (article section "Classical reduction"): gcd⁡(a,N)≠1\gcd(a,N) \ne 1gcd(a,N)=1 is a nontrivial factor; N∣(ar/2−1)(ar/2+1)N \mid (a^{r/2}-1)(a^{r/2}+1)N∣(ar/2−1)(ar/2+1) for even rrr; N∤ar/2−1N \nmid a^{r/2}-1N∤ar/2−1; and gcd⁡(N,ar/2∓1)\gcd(N, a^{r/2} \mp 1)gcd(N,ar/2∓1) are nontrivial factors when N∤ar/2+1N \nmid a^{r/2}+1N∤ar/2+1.
  2. Spectrum of UUU (section "Quantum phase estimation"): Ur=IU^r = IUr=I; every eigenvalue is some ωrk\omega_r^kωrk​; U∣ψj⟩=ωrj∣ψj⟩U|\psi_j\rangle = \omega_r^j|\psi_j\rangleU∣ψj​⟩=ωrj​∣ψj​⟩; ∑jωrjk=0\sum_{j}\omega_r^{jk} = 0∑j​ωrjk​=0 for 1≤k≤r−11 \le k \le r-11≤k≤r−1; r−1/2∑j∣ψj⟩=∣1⟩r^{-1/2}\sum_j|\psi_j\rangle = |1\rangler−1/2∑j​∣ψj​⟩=∣1⟩.
  3. Phase estimation: on ∣0⟩⊗2n∣ψj⟩|0\rangle^{\otimes 2n}|\psi_j\rangle∣0⟩⊗2n∣ψj​⟩ the circuit outputs ∣ϕj⟩∣ψj⟩|\phi_j\rangle|\psi_j\rangle∣ϕj​⟩∣ψj​⟩ with ∣⟨k∣ϕj⟩∣2≥4/π2|\langle k|\phi_j\rangle|^2 \ge 4/\pi^2∣⟨k∣ϕj​⟩∣2≥4/π2 at every nearest integer kkk to 22nj/r2^{2n}j/r22nj/r; on ∣0⟩⊗2n∣1⟩|0\rangle^{\otimes 2n}|1\rangle∣0⟩⊗2n∣1⟩ each ∣ϕj⟩|\phi_j\rangle∣ϕj​⟩ is found with probability 1/r1/r1/r.
  4. Continued fractions and register size (section "Choosing the size of the first register"): ∣j/r−φ∣<1/(2r2)|j/r - \varphi| < 1/(2r^2)∣j/r−φ∣<1/(2r2) implies φ\varphiφ has j/rj/rj/r in lowest terms as a convergent, and 2−(2n+1)≤1/(2N2)≤1/(2r2)2^{-(2n+1)} \le 1/(2N^2) \le 1/(2r^2)2−(2n+1)≤1/(2N2)≤1/(2r2).
  5. Discrete logarithms (section "Shor's algorithm for discrete logarithms"): f(a,b)=gax−bf(a,b) = g^a x^{-b}f(a,b)=gax−b on Zp×Zp\mathbb Z_p \times \mathbb Z_pZp​×Zp​ is a homomorphism with kernel the multiples of (r,1)(r,1)(r,1).

Significance

The goal is the quantitative statement behind the article's claim that phase estimation "gives as output a random integer of the form jr22n\frac{j}{r}2^{2n}rj​22n" and that a 2n2n2n-qubit first register suffices to recover j/rj/rj/r. Combined with the classical milestones, it is the correctness argument of Shor's factoring algorithm, minus the separate number-theoretic estimate of how often a random aaa has even order with ar/2≢−1a^{r/2} \not\equiv -1ar/2≡−1, which the article does not state.

The results are classical and their proofs are published. The work this mission asks for is a machine-checked proof against an explicit gate-level model of the circuit — Hadamard tensor power, controlled modular-multiplication gates, inverse QFT — rather than against a closed-form output distribution assumed up front. Related missions on the platform formalize Shor's 1997 paper, which analyses the circuit by a direct Fourier-sum computation with q≥N2q \ge N^2q≥N2; this mission follows the phase-estimation route with the article's constants.

Difficulty

The spectral facts about UUU and the classical reduction are short arguments. The main obstacle is the circuit: showing that the product of the 2n2n2n controlled gates C-U2iC\text{-}U^{2^i}C-U2i acts on ∣x⟩∣ψj⟩|x\rangle|\psi_j\rangle∣x⟩∣ψj​⟩ as multiplication by ωrjx\omega_r^{jx}ωrjx​ requires the binary expansion of xxx and the commutation of the controlled gates, and the subsequent inverse QFT must be computed explicitly. The bound 4/π24/\pi^24/π2 requires an estimate of ∣∑x<Qe2πixδ∣\left|\sum_{x<Q} e^{2\pi i x\delta}\right|​∑x<Q​e2πixδ​ for ∣δ∣≤1/(2Q)|\delta| \le 1/(2Q)∣δ∣≤1/(2Q) which is uniform in QQQ; a crude estimate gives a weaker constant. The measurement identity P(k)=1r∑jPj(k)P(k) = \frac1r\sum_j P_j(k)P(k)=r1​∑j​Pj​(k) requires the orthonormality of the ∣ψj⟩|\psi_j\rangle∣ψj​⟩, which uses that a0,…,ar−1a^0, \dots, a^{r-1}a0,…,ar−1 are distinct modulo NNN.

Formalization scope

States are coordinate vectors Fin d → ℂ, gates are complex matrices acting by Matrix.mulVec, two-register operators are Kronecker products on Fin d₁ × Fin d₂, and measurement probabilities are sums of squared moduli. The order is orderOf (a : ZMod N) and nnn is Nat.clog 2 N. Convergents are Mathlib's Real.convergent, the standard continued fraction expansion. The goal is a statement about the specific circuit defined in the mission's definition file, so it cannot be satisfied by choosing a convenient output distribution, and the recovery statement is quantified over a fixed jjj, so the trivial convergent ⌊k/Q⌋=0\lfloor k/Q\rfloor = 0⌊k/Q⌋=0 (which equals 0/r0/r0/r) does not discharge it for j≠0j \ne 0j=0.

Reusable infrastructure welcome from this mission: the action of the Kronecker-product phase estimation circuit on eigenstates, the explicit inverse QFT computation, and the 4/π24/\pi^24/π2 estimate for the Fejér-type kernel.

Selected references

  • P. W. Shor, Algorithms for quantum computation: discrete logarithms and factoring, Proc. 35th FOCS, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1109/sfcs.1994.365700
  • P. W. Shor, Polynomial-time algorithms for prime factorization and discrete logarithms on a quantum computer, SIAM J. Comput. 26(5), 1997. https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9508027
  • A. Yu. Kitaev, Quantum measurements and the Abelian stabilizer problem, 1995. https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9511026
  • M. A. Nielsen, I. L. Chuang, Quantum Computation and Quantum Information, Cambridge University Press, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511976667
  • Wikipedia, Shor's algorithm, revision 1378862216. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Shor%27s_algorithm&oldid=1378862216
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Differential Geometry·Captain: Lucas

Generalized Complex Structures I: Linear Algebra of Generalized Almost Complex StructuresTextbook

Motivation

Generalized complex geometry, introduced by N. Hitchin (Generalized Calabi–Yau manifolds, 2003) and developed by M. Gualtieri (thesis, 2004; Annals 2011), treats complex and symplectic structures as two special cases of one notion. It replaces the tangent bundle TTT of a manifold by the generalized tangent bundle T⊕T∗T\oplus T^*T⊕T∗ and an almost complex structure on TTT by an orthogonal almost complex structure on T⊕T∗T\oplus T^*T⊕T∗. The framework is used in string theory: supersymmetric flux compactifications require (possibly twisted) generalized complex structures (Graña 2006).

The pointwise theory is pure linear algebra, and the global statements of the subject rest on it: the equivalence between a generalized almost complex structure and its −1\sqrt{-1}−1​-eigenbundle, Gualtieri's classification of maximal isotropic subspaces by pairs (E,ε)(E,\varepsilon)(E,ε), the type invariant and its behaviour under B-field shifts, and the two model examples (complex and symplectic). This mission formalizes that linear-algebraic layer as presented in the Wikipedia article Generalized complex structure.

Setting

Fix N≥0N\ge 0N≥0. A fiber of the tangent bundle is T=RNT=\mathbb R^NT=RN; its dual T∗T^*T∗ is identified with RN\mathbb R^NRN through the standard dual basis, so a one-form ξ\xiξ acts by ξ(Y)=∑iξiYi\xi(Y)=\sum_i\xi_iY_iξ(Y)=∑i​ξi​Yi​. The generalized tangent space is T⊕T∗T\oplus T^*T⊕T∗, whose elements are formal sums X+ξX+\xiX+ξ, with the natural inner product of signature (N,N)(N,N)(N,N)

⟨X+ξ,  Y+η⟩=12(ξ(Y)+η(X)).\langle X+\xi,\;Y+\eta\rangle=\tfrac12\bigl(\xi(Y)+\eta(X)\bigr).⟨X+ξ,Y+η⟩=21​(ξ(Y)+η(X)).

The same formula defines a complex bilinear form on the complexification (T⊕T∗)⊗C=CN⊕CN(T\oplus T^*)\otimes\mathbb C=\mathbb C^N\oplus\mathbb C^N(T⊕T∗)⊗C=CN⊕CN, which carries the complex conjugation v↦vˉv\mapsto\bar vv↦vˉ.

  1. A generalized almost complex structure is a real linear map J:T⊕T∗→T⊕T∗\mathcal J:T\oplus T^*\to T\oplus T^*J:T⊕T∗→T⊕T∗ with J2=−Id\mathcal J^2=-\mathrm{Id}J2=−Id and ⟨Ju,Jv⟩=⟨u,v⟩\langle\mathcal J u,\mathcal J v\rangle=\langle u,v\rangle⟨Ju,Jv⟩=⟨u,v⟩.
  2. Its −1\sqrt{-1}−1​-eigenbundle is L={v∈(T⊕T∗)⊗C: Jv=−1 v}L=\{v\in(T\oplus T^*)\otimes\mathbb C:\ \mathcal J v=\sqrt{-1}\,v\}L={v∈(T⊕T∗)⊗C: Jv=−1​v}; Lˉ\bar LLˉ denotes the conjugate subspace.
  3. A subspace LLL is isotropic if ⟨ℓ,ℓ′⟩=0\langle\ell,\ell'\rangle=0⟨ℓ,ℓ′⟩=0 for all ℓ,ℓ′∈L\ell,\ell'\in Lℓ,ℓ′∈L, and maximal isotropic if moreover dim⁡L=N\dim L=NdimL=N.
  4. For a subspace E⊆TE\subseteq TE⊆T and a bilinear form ε\varepsilonε on EEE, L(E,ε)={X+ξ: X∈E, ξ∣E=ε(X,⋅)}L(E,\varepsilon)=\{X+\xi:\ X\in E,\ \xi|_E=\varepsilon(X,\cdot)\}L(E,ε)={X+ξ: X∈E, ξ∣E​=ε(X,⋅)}.
  5. The type of a complex subspace LLL is 2N2N2N minus the real dimension of its projection πT(L)\pi_T(L)πT​(L) to T⊗CT\otimes\mathbb CT⊗C, i.e. 2 (N−dim⁡CπT(L))2\,(N-\dim_{\mathbb C}\pi_T(L))2(N−dimC​πT​(L)); the real index is r=dim⁡C(L∩Lˉ)r=\dim_{\mathbb C}(L\cap\bar L)r=dimC​(L∩Lˉ).
  6. The B-field shift by a 2-form BBB is eB(X+ξ)=X+ξ+iXBe^B(X+\xi)=X+\xi+i_XBeB(X+ξ)=X+ξ+iX​B.
  7. An almost complex structure J0J_0J0​ on TTT gives JJ0(X+ξ)=−J0X+ξ∘J0\mathcal J_{J_0}(X+\xi)=-J_0X+\xi\circ J_0JJ0​​(X+ξ)=−J0​X+ξ∘J0​; a nondegenerate 2-form ω\omegaω gives Jω(X+ξ)=−(ω♭)−1ξ+ω♭X\mathcal J_\omega(X+\xi)=-(\omega^\flat)^{-1}\xi+\omega^\flat XJω​(X+ξ)=−(ω♭)−1ξ+ω♭X with ω♭X=iXω\omega^\flat X=i_X\omegaω♭X=iX​ω.

Formalization targets

Goal: the eigenbundle correspondence

For every generalized almost complex structure J\mathcal JJ, its eigenbundle LLL satisfies

(i) L∩Lˉ=0,(ii) L is maximal isotropic,\text{(i)}\ L\cap\bar L=0,\qquad\text{(ii)}\ L\ \text{is maximal isotropic},(i) L∩Lˉ=0,(ii) L is maximal isotropic,

and conversely every complex subspace LLL satisfying (i) and (ii) is the −1\sqrt{-1}−1​-eigenbundle of a unique generalized almost complex structure. Hence (i), (ii) form an alternative definition of generalized almost complex structure.

Milestones

  1. The eigenbundle of J\mathcal JJ satisfies (i) and (ii).
  2. J\mathcal JJ is uniquely determined by its eigenbundle.
  3. Every LLL satisfying (i), (ii) is the eigenbundle of some J\mathcal JJ.
  4. L(E,ε)L(E,\varepsilon)L(E,ε) is maximal isotropic whenever ε\varepsilonε is a 2-form (real or complex case).
  5. Every maximal isotropic subspace has the form L(E,ε)L(E,\varepsilon)L(E,ε) (Gualtieri).
  6. The pair (E,ε)(E,\varepsilon)(E,ε) is determined by L(E,ε)L(E,\varepsilon)L(E,ε).
  7. A generalized almost complex structure has type at most NNN.
  8. B-field shifts are isometries of T⊕T∗T\oplus T^*T⊕T∗.
  9. The type is invariant under B-field shifts.
  10. A maximal isotropic LLL is the eigenbundle of a generalized almost complex structure iff r=0r=0r=0.
  11. Complex structures give generalized almost complex structures of type NNN.
  12. Nondegenerate 2-forms give generalized almost complex structures of type 000.
  13. Up to a B-field shift, the symplectic ones are the only structures of type 000.

Significance

The goal makes the two descriptions of a generalized almost complex structure interchangeable: integrability (closure of LLL under the Courant bracket), the canonical pure-spinor line and the type are all phrased in terms of LLL, while the definition is phrased in terms of J\mathcal JJ. The classification by (E,ε)(E,\varepsilon)(E,ε) is the normal form behind the type, the local classification near regular points, and the identification of the complex and symplectic extremes. All of these results are classical and proved in the cited literature; the remaining work is their machine-checked formalization. A formal library of this linear algebra is a prerequisite for later missions on the manifold-level theory (Courant bracket, generalized Darboux theorem).

Difficulty

The goal mixes real and complex linear algebra. Recovering a real map J\mathcal JJ from a complex subspace LLL requires knowing that L⊕LˉL\oplus\bar LL⊕Lˉ is the whole complexification and that the map which is −1\sqrt{-1}−1​ on LLL and −−1-\sqrt{-1}−−1​ on Lˉ\bar LLˉ commutes with conjugation and is orthogonal; each of these uses hypotheses (i) and (ii), and the dimension condition dim⁡L=N\dim L=NdimL=N cannot be dropped. The classification needs a dimension count for L(E,ε)L(E,\varepsilon)L(E,ε) (functionals on EEE versus the annihilator of EEE) and, in the converse direction, the extraction of ε\varepsilonε from an arbitrary maximal isotropic subspace. For the complex example, the type computation requires the dimension of the −−1-\sqrt{-1}−−1​-eigenspace of a real complex structure, which is exactly N/2N/2N/2.

Formalization scope

Everything is fiberwise and in coordinates: T=RNT=\mathbb R^NT=RN is Fin N → ℝ, T⊕T∗T\oplus T^*T⊕T∗ is GIdx N → ℝ with GIdx N = Fin N ⊕ Fin N (vector part on Sum.inl, one-form part on Sum.inr), endomorphisms are matrices over GIdx N, and the complexification is GIdx N → ℂ with the real matrix acting through R→C\mathbb R\to\mathbb CR→C. 2-forms on TTT are skew matrices BBB with B(X,Y)=XTBYB(X,Y)=X^{\mathsf T}BYB(X,Y)=XTBY; 2-forms on a subspace EEE are skew bilinear forms on EEE. Nondegeneracy of ω\omegaω is det⁡ω≠0\det\omega\neq0detω=0 (the inverse used in Jω\mathcal J_\omegaJω​ is the matrix inverse). The type uses the article's real-dimension convention, so it is twice Gualtieri's complex type. The classification milestones are stated over RCLike fields, i.e. for both R\mathbb RR and C\mathbb CC, as in the article.

Out of scope for this mission: the Courant bracket and integrability, the canonical (pure spinor) bundle, upper semicontinuity of the type, the generalized Darboux theorem, local holomorphicity, and the GGG-structure description. These need manifold-level infrastructure (Lie derivatives and exterior derivatives of forms on manifolds) and are left for later missions.

Selected references

  • N. Hitchin, Generalized Calabi–Yau manifolds, Q. J. Math. 54 (2003) 281–308. https://doi.org/10.1093/qmath/hag025
  • M. Gualtieri, Generalized complex geometry, PhD thesis, Oxford, 2004. https://arxiv.org/abs/math.DG/0401221
  • M. Gualtieri, Generalized complex geometry, Ann. of Math. 174 (2011) 75–123. https://arxiv.org/abs/0911.0993
  • M. Graña, Flux compactifications in string theory: a comprehensive review, Phys. Rep. 423 (2006) 91–158. https://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0509003
  • Wikipedia, Generalized complex structure (revision 1288019306). https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Generalized_complex_structure&oldid=1288019306
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Mathematical Physics·Captain: Lucas

Giddings 1999: Boundary S matrix and the AdS/CFT dictionary — free-field spectrum on global AdSResearch Paper

Motivation

The AdS/CFT correspondence (Maldacena 1997) relates quantum gravity on anti-de Sitter (AdS) space to a conformal field theory (CFT) living on its timelike boundary. Gubser–Klebanov–Polyakov and Witten gave the CFT-from-AdS direction of the dictionary: CFT correlators are computed from bulk Green functions. Giddings (PRL 83, 2707, 1999) supplies an entry in the reverse direction. Because AdS confines particles and has no ordinary asymptotic states, a flat-space S matrix does not exist; the paper defines a boundary S matrix from in/out states built out of wave packets incident from the boundary, derives an LSZ-type reduction formula (eq. 42), and concludes that the boundary S matrix equals the boundary CFT correlator (eqs. 44–45).

Every step of that argument rests on the classical theory of the free Klein–Gordon field on global AdS: the parameters h±,νh_\pm,\nuh±​,ν (eq. 4), the discrete normalizable spectrum ωnl=2h++2n+l\omega_{nl}=2h_++2n+lωnl​=2h+​+2n+l with modes behaving like (cos⁡r)2h+(\cos r)^{2h_+}(cosr)2h+​ at the boundary (eqs. 5–7), the non-normalizable modes behaving like (cos⁡r)2h−(\cos r)^{2h_-}(cosr)2h−​ (eqs. 8–9), and the boundary limit (eqs. 19–20) that fixes the normalization 2ν2\nu2ν of the bulk–boundary propagator.

Setting

Fix an integer d≥2d\ge 2d≥2, an AdS radius R>0R>0R>0 and a scalar mass m∈Rm\in\mathbb Rm∈R. Global AdSd+1\mathrm{AdS}_{d+1}AdSd+1​ has metric (eq. 2)

ds2=R2sec⁡2r (−dt2+dr2+sin⁡2r dΩd−12),0≤r<π2.ds^2=R^2\sec^2 r\,\bigl(-dt^2+dr^2+\sin^2 r\,d\Omega_{d-1}^2\bigr),\qquad 0\le r<\tfrac\pi2 .ds2=R2sec2r(−dt2+dr2+sin2rdΩd−12​),0≤r<2π​.

Define (eq. 4)

ν=12d2+4m2R2,2h±=d2±ν.\nu=\tfrac12\sqrt{d^2+4m^2R^2},\qquad 2h_\pm=\tfrac d2\pm\nu .ν=21​d2+4m2R2​,2h±​=2d​±ν.

A mode ϕ=e−iωtYlm⃗(Ω)χ(r)\phi=e^{-i\omega t}Y_{l\vec m}(\Omega)\chi(r)ϕ=e−iωtYlm​(Ω)χ(r), with Ylm⃗Y_{l\vec m}Ylm​ a spherical harmonic on Sd−1S^{d-1}Sd−1, solves the free equation (□−m2)ϕ=0(\Box-m^2)\phi=0(□−m2)ϕ=0 (eq. 3) exactly when the radial profile χ\chiχ satisfies, on 0<r<π/20<r<\pi/20<r<π/2,

χ′′+d−1sin⁡rcos⁡rχ′+ω2χ−l(l+d−2)sin⁡2rχ−m2R2cos⁡2rχ=0.\chi''+\frac{d-1}{\sin r\cos r}\chi'+\omega^2\chi-\frac{l(l+d-2)}{\sin^2 r}\chi-\frac{m^2R^2}{\cos^2 r}\chi=0 .χ′′+sinrcosrd−1​χ′+ω2χ−sin2rl(l+d−2)​χ−cos2rm2R2​χ=0.

A normalizable mode is a nonzero C2C^2C2 solution that is bounded as r→0r\to0r→0 (regular at the centre of AdS) and has finite Klein–Gordon norm, i.e. ∫0π/2tan⁡d−1r χ(r)2 dr<∞\int_0^{\pi/2}\tan^{d-1}r\,\chi(r)^2\,dr<\infty∫0π/2​tand−1rχ(r)2dr<∞. The explicit modes of eq. (5) are

χnl(r)=sin⁡lr (cos⁡r)2h+ Pn(l+d/2−1,  ν)(cos⁡2r),\chi_{nl}(r)=\sin^l r\,(\cos r)^{2h_+}\,P_n^{(l+d/2-1,\;\nu)}(\cos 2r),χnl​(r)=sinlr(cosr)2h+​Pn(l+d/2−1,ν)​(cos2r),

with Pn(α,β)P_n^{(\alpha,\beta)}Pn(α,β)​ the Jacobi polynomial, and the eigenfrequencies of eq. (7) are ωnl=2h++2n+l\omega_{nl}=2h_++2n+lωnl​=2h+​+2n+l.

Formalization targets

Goal: the normalizable spectrum (eqs. 3–7)

For every ω∈R\omega\in\mathbb Rω∈R, l∈Nl\in\mathbb Nl∈N and radial profile χ\chiχ,

χ is a normalizable mode at (ω,l)  ⟺  ∃n∈N: ∣ω∣=ωnl and χ=c χnl on (0,π2) for some c≠0.\chi \text{ is a normalizable mode at }(\omega,l)\iff \exists n\in\mathbb N:\ |\omega|=\omega_{nl}\ \text{and}\ \chi=c\,\chi_{nl}\text{ on }(0,\tfrac\pi2)\text{ for some }c\neq0 .χ is a normalizable mode at (ω,l)⟺∃n∈N: ∣ω∣=ωnl​ and χ=cχnl​ on (0,2π​) for some c=0.

Milestones

  1. Eq. (4): 2h±2h_\pm2h±​ are the two roots of Δ(Δ−d)=m2R2\Delta(\Delta-d)=m^2R^2Δ(Δ−d)=m2R2, and 2h+−2h−=2ν2h_+-2h_-=2\nu2h+​−2h−​=2ν.
  2. Eqs. (5), (7): χnl\chi_{nl}χnl​ solves the radial equation at ω=ωnl\omega=\omega_{nl}ω=ωnl​.
  3. Eq. (6): χnl(r)/(cos⁡r)2h+→knl≠0\chi_{nl}(r)/(\cos r)^{2h_+}\to k_{nl}\neq0χnl​(r)/(cosr)2h+​→knl​=0 as r→π/2r\to\pi/2r→π/2.
  4. Eq. (5): χnl\chi_{nl}χnl​ is a normalizable mode at (ωnl,l)(\omega_{nl},l)(ωnl​,l).
  5. Eqs. (8)–(9): for ∣ω∣|\omega|∣ω∣ outside the spectrum there is a solution regular at r=0r=0r=0 with χ(r)/(cos⁡r)2h−→1\chi(r)/(\cos r)^{2h_-}\to1χ(r)/(cosr)2h−​→1.
  6. Eqs. (19)–(20): lim⁡r→π/2(tan⁡r)d−1[(cos⁡r)2h−∂r↔(cos⁡r)2h+]=−2ν\displaystyle\lim_{r\to\pi/2}(\tan r)^{d-1}\bigl[(\cos r)^{2h_-}\overleftrightarrow{\partial_r}(\cos r)^{2h_+}\bigr]=-2\nur→π/2lim​(tanr)d−1[(cosr)2h−​∂r​​(cosr)2h+​]=−2ν.
  7. Eqs. (12), (33): Δb>Δ⇒(cos⁡r)Δb−Δ→0\Delta_b>\Delta\Rightarrow(\cos r)^{\Delta_b-\Delta}\to0Δb​>Δ⇒(cosr)Δb​−Δ→0.
  8. Eqs. (23), (42)–(44): given Witten's formula (43), the LSZ expression (42) built from the wave packets (23) equals ∫∏a[dba fa(ba)/Za] ⟨T∏aO(ba)⟩\int\prod_a[db_a\,f_a(b_a)/Z_a]\,\langle T\prod_a\mathcal O(b_a)\rangle∫∏a​[dba​fa​(ba​)/Za​]⟨T∏a​O(ba​)⟩.

Significance

The goal is the precise mathematical content behind the paper's statement that free solutions "exist at arbitrary frequency but are only normalizable for a discrete set of frequencies". This spectrum is what makes the boundary operators aωlm⃗a_{\omega l\vec m}aωlm​ of eq. (25) act as creation and annihilation operators (eqs. 27–29), and the boundary exponents 2h±2h_\pm2h±​ and the constant 2ν2\nu2ν determine the normalizations in eqs. (20), (21), (28) and (29). The physics derivation of eqs. (28)–(42) is not rigorous mathematics; milestone 8 isolates the final step from (42)–(43) to (44), which is an exact identity about integral kernels.

The radial results are classical (the paper attributes the explicit solutions to Balasubramanian–Kraus–Lawrence). This mission asks for machine-checked proofs of these results, together with the reusable Jacobi-polynomial and boundary-asymptotics infrastructure they require.

Difficulty

Verifying that χnl\chi_{nl}χnl​ solves the equation is a computation. The goal's converse direction is the hard part: one must show that a solution regular at r=0r=0r=0 can have finite Klein–Gordon norm only when ∣ω∣|\omega|∣ω∣ equals some ωnl\omega_{nl}ωnl​, and that it is then unique up to a scalar. This requires controlling both regular singular points r=0r=0r=0 and r=π/2r=\pi/2r=π/2 of the radial equation, including the resonant cases where 2ν2\nu2ν or l+d/2−1l+d/2-1l+d/2−1 is an integer and logarithms appear. Since d≥2d\ge2d≥2 forces ν≥1\nu\ge1ν≥1, the (cos⁡r)2h−(\cos r)^{2h_-}(cosr)2h−​ branch is never square-integrable, so the second quantization available for 0<ν<10<\nu<10<ν<1 does not arise.

Formalization scope

  • ddd is a natural number with d≥2d\ge2d≥2; m,Rm,Rm,R are real with R>0R>0R>0; l,nl,nl,n are natural numbers; ω\omegaω is real and only ∣ω∣|\omega|∣ω∣ matters.
  • Radial profiles are real-valued functions R→R\mathbb R\to\mathbb RR→R; only their values on (0,π/2)(0,\pi/2)(0,π/2) enter any definition. Complex modes reduce to their real and imaginary parts.
  • Regularity at the origin is encoded as boundedness of ∣χ∣|\chi|∣χ∣ on (0,π/4](0,\pi/4](0,π/4]. Finite Klein–Gordon norm is integrability of tan⁡d−1r χ(r)2\tan^{d-1}r\,\chi(r)^2tand−1rχ(r)2 on (0,π/2)(0,\pi/2)(0,π/2).
  • The Jacobi polynomial is defined by the explicit finite sum with generalized binomial coefficients. Powers of cos⁡r\cos rcosr with real exponents use Real.rpow; cos⁡r>0\cos r>0cosr>0 on the relevant range.
  • Nontriviality (χ≠0\chi\neq0χ=0 somewhere) is part of the definition of a normalizable mode, so the zero function never counts.
  • Milestone 8 takes the LSZ right-hand side (42) as the definition of the boundary S matrix and Witten's relation (43) as a hypothesis, with joint integrability of the integrand. In- and out-packets are listed together, and the plane-wave limit (45) is not formalized.

Selected references

  • S. B. Giddings, Boundary S matrix and the anti–de Sitter space to conformal field theory dictionary, Phys. Rev. Lett. 83, 2707 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.83.2707
  • V. Balasubramanian, P. Kraus, A. Lawrence, Bulk vs. boundary dynamics in anti-de Sitter spacetime, Phys. Rev. D 59, 046003 (1999). https://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/9805171
  • E. Witten, Anti de Sitter space and holography, Adv. Theor. Math. Phys. 2, 253 (1998). https://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/9802150
  • J. Maldacena, The large N limit of superconformal field theories and supergravity, Adv. Theor. Math. Phys. 2, 231 (1998). https://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/9711200
  • S. S. Gubser, I. Klebanov, A. Polyakov, Gauge theory correlators from non-critical string theory, Phys. Lett. B 428, 105 (1998). https://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/9802109
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