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Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

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Campaigns (experimental)

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Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

Block Sensitivity vs. Sensitivity

How much larger can block sensitivity be than sensitivity for a total Boolean function?

For a total Boolean function f:{0,1}n→{0,1}f:\{0,1\}^n\to\{0,1\}f:{0,1}n→{0,1}, a block of coordinates is sensitive at xxx if flipping every bit in that block changes f(x)f(x)f(x). Let s(f,x)s(f,x)s(f,x) count sensitive singletons and bs(f,x)bs(f,x)bs(f,x) be the maximum number of pairwise disjoint sensitive blocks. Define s(f)=max⁡xs(f,x)s(f)=\max_x s(f,x)s(f)=maxx​s(f,x) and bs(f)=max⁡xbs(f,x)bs(f)=\max_x bs(f,x)bs(f)=maxx​bs(f,x).

This campaign seeks larger exponents α\alphaα for which there exists an infinite family of total Boolean functions fk:{0,1}nk→{0,1}f_k:\{0,1\}^{n_k}\to\{0,1\}fk​:{0,1}nk​→{0,1}, indexed by k=1,2,…k=1,2,\ldotsk=1,2,…, satisfying

s(fk)→∞,bs(fk)≥s(fk)α−o(1)as k→∞.s(f_k)\to\infty,\qquad bs(f_k)\ge s(f_k)^{\alpha-o(1)}\quad\text{as }k\to\infty.s(fk​)→∞,bs(fk​)≥s(fk​)α−o(1)as k→∞.

Here o(1)o(1)o(1) denotes a quantity tending to zero as k→∞k\to\inftyk→∞. Higher is better. The classical exponent is 222, and Huang's bound gives a ceiling of 444.

OpenAI's construction achieves an exponent strictly greater than 222.

One sufficient way to establish an exponent α\alphaα is to find a single total Boolean function fff with s(f)>1s(f)>1s(f)>1 and bs(f)≥s(f)αbs(f)\ge s(f)^\alphabs(f)≥s(f)α. Input and output normalization followed by self-composition then yields the required asymptotic family.

≥ 2.131121719190Formalized record→≥ 2.15Open frontier
9 provers on it18 of 19 missions formalized

Integer Multiplication Below n log n

Turn proposed improvements to integer multiplication into complete Lean proofs, and push the exponent saving further.

Harvey and van der Hoeven established an O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) algorithm in 2021. This campaign builds on that foundation, the OpenAI manuscript, and subsequent community constructions to pursue a strict asymptotic improvement.

For two nnn-bit integers, the target is

T(n)=O ⁣(n L(n)1−κ),L(n)=max⁡(⌈log⁡2n⌉,1).T(n)=O\!\left(n\,L(n)^{1-\kappa}\right),\qquad L(n)=\max(\lceil\log_2 n\rceil,1).T(n)=O(nL(n)1−κ),L(n)=max(⌈log2​n⌉,1).

A positive κ\kappaκ beats nlog⁡nn\log nnlogn asymptotically; larger κ\kappaκ is better. Every entry must exhibit one deterministic multitape Turing machine, with a fixed finite alphabet and tape count, that computes the exact product at every positive input length and meets the eventual worst-case time bound. The tracked number measures an asymptotic exponent saving.

≥ 3.6 × 10−5Formalized record→≥ 5.1 × 10−5Open frontier
8 provers on it4 of 7 missions formalized

3SUM Exponent

Classical algorithms solve 3SUM in O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams gave a deterministic O(n1.9992)O(n^{1.9992})O(n1.9992) algorithm, refuting the integer 3SUM hypothesis. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for 3SUM on polynomially bounded integers, using a word RAM with O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-bit words, and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 1.960614Formalized record→≤ 1.9202796Open frontier
4 provers on it7 of 8 missions formalized

All-Pairs Shortest Paths (APSP) Exponent

Classical algorithms solve all-pairs shortest paths in O(n3)O(n^3)O(n3) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams refuted the APSP conjecture with a deterministic O(n2.99942)O(n^{2.99942})O(n2.99942) algorithm. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for exact APSP and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 2.995561Formalized record
3 provers on it5 of 5 missions formalized

The irrationality measure of π

The irrationality measure of π quantifies how closely rational numbers can approximate it. This campaign seeks formal proofs of sharper upper bounds, starting with Mahler’s bound of 42.

≤ 7.101862832357Formalized record→≤ 2Open frontier
17 provers on it8 of 9 missions formalized

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constant

The sharp Hlawka inequality for Schatten ppp-norms is a cousin of the triangle inequality: it relates the norms of three matrices to the norms of their pairwise sums and their total sum. For complex diagonal matrices, an exact formula for the best possible comparison constant has been proved in Lean for every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256. We conjecture that the same formula holds for all p≥2p\ge2p≥2.

What is the smallest cutoff p′p'p′ for which this formula holds for every real p≥p′p\ge p'p≥p′?

References:

  • Wolfram MathWorld, Hlawka's Inequality.
  • Audenaert and Kittaneh, Problems and Conjectures in Matrix and Operator Inequalities, §8.2 (2017).
  • Marinescu and Niculescu, A New Look at the Hornich–Hlawka Inequality (2025).
  • Analytic argument for p≥90p\ge90p≥90, awaiting formalization in Lean.
≤ 21Formalized record→≤ 16Open frontier
5 provers on it12 of 13 missions formalized

Odd numbers as sums of primes

Is every odd number a sum of kkk primes? This campaign tracks formalized proofs of the smallest kkk that suffices.

Schnirelmann (1930) showed some finite kkk works. Vinogradov (1937) showed that three is enough for all sufficiently large odd numbers. Tao (2012) proved k=5k = 5k=5 unconditionally. Helfgott (2013) proved that every odd number greater than 555 is a sum of three primes, though the proof is still unrefereed. Ideally, we can formalize this statement here. Note that three is optimal: 272727 is neither prime nor 222 + prime.

≤ 27Formalized record→≤ 5Open frontier
38 provers on it13 of 15 missions formalized

Matrix multiplication exponent

Schoolbook matrix multiplication takes n3n^3n3 operations. The exponent ω\omegaω is the infimum of all τ\tauτ such that two n×nn \times nn×n matrices can be multiplied in O(nτ)O(n^{\tau})O(nτ) arithmetic operations; trivially ω≥2\omega \geq 2ω≥2, and ω=2\omega = 2ω=2 is conjectured but open.

Strassen gave the first nontrivial bound, ω<2.81\omega < 2.81ω<2.81, in 1969, and introduced the laser method in 1986 to reach ω<2.48\omega < 2.48ω<2.48. Coppersmith and Winograd's 1990 bound of 2.3762.3762.376 stood for two decades. Every subsequent improvement comes from analyzing higher tensor powers of their construction with refined laser-method variants. That line reached ω<2.371339\omega < 2.371339ω<2.371339 in 2025, and the current record is ω<2.371177\omega < 2.371177ω<2.371177, from August 2026. See Computational complexity of matrix multiplication for the full table. Can we formalize these results and even improve on them?

≤ 2.25Formalized record
16 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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AlgebraNumber TheoryTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Factoring Polynomials with Rational Coefficients III: A Reduced Basis of the Lattice of Multiples of h mod p^k Finds the Irreducible Factor h₀ = gcd(b₁, …, b_t)Research Paper

Motivation

Factoring a polynomial with rational coefficients into irreducible factors is one of the basic tasks of computer algebra. Before 1982 the standard method (Berlekamp's algorithm modulo a small prime, Hensel lifting, then recombination of the ppp-adic factors, as in Zassenhaus's approach) could take exponential time, because the number of ways to recombine modular factors grows exponentially with the number of factors. A. K. Lenstra, H. W. Lenstra, Jr. and L. Lovász gave the first deterministic polynomial-time algorithm for factoring primitive polynomials in Z[X]\mathbb Z[X]Z[X] (Math. Ann. 261, 1982). Its key idea is to replace recombination by a search for a short vector in a lattice, and the lattice basis reduction algorithm introduced for that purpose (the LLL algorithm) has since become a standard tool in number theory, cryptanalysis and integer programming.

Section 2 of the paper, Factors and Lattices, is the bridge between the two halves: it shows that an irreducible factor of fff can be read off from a reduced basis of a lattice built from a ppp-adic factor of fff. This mission formalizes that section.

Timeline. Mignotte (1974) bounded the coefficients of a factor of an integer polynomial in terms of the polynomial itself. A. K. Lenstra (Mathematisch Centrum report IW 190/81, 1981, Theorem 2) proved the weaker statement that, under the same conditions, a short lattice vector has a nontrivial gcd with fff. LLL (1982) proved the sharper Propositions (2.7), (2.13) and (2.16) used here, which pin down the irreducible factor h0h_0h0​ itself.

Setting

For g=∑iaiXig=\sum_i a_iX^ig=∑i​ai​Xi with real coefficients, the length of ggg is ∣g∣=(∑iai2)1/2|g|=(\sum_i a_i^2)^{1/2}∣g∣=(∑i​ai2​)1/2. For a positive integer qqq, (g mod q)(g\bmod q)(gmodq) is the polynomial over Z/qZ\mathbb Z/q\mathbb ZZ/qZ obtained by reducing every coefficient modulo qqq.

Throughout, ppp is a prime number, kkk a positive integer, and f∈Z[X]f\in\mathbb Z[X]f∈Z[X] a polynomial of degree n>0n>0n>0. A polynomial h∈Z[X]h\in\mathbb Z[X]h∈Z[X] is fixed with

  • (2.1) hhh has leading coefficient 111;
  • (2.2) (h mod pk)(h\bmod p^k)(hmodpk) divides (f mod pk)(f\bmod p^k)(fmodpk) in (Z/pkZ)[X](\mathbb Z/p^k\mathbb Z)[X](Z/pkZ)[X];
  • (2.3) (h mod p)(h\bmod p)(hmodp) is irreducible in Fp[X]\mathbb F_p[X]Fp​[X];
  • (2.4) (h mod p)2(h\bmod p)^2(hmodp)2 does not divide (f mod p)(f\bmod p)(fmodp) in Fp[X]\mathbb F_p[X]Fp​[X].

Write l=deg⁡hl=\deg hl=degh, so 0<l≤n0<l\le n0<l≤n. Proposition (2.5) shows that fff has an irreducible factor h0∈Z[X]h_0\in\mathbb Z[X]h0​∈Z[X] with (h mod p)∣(h0 mod p)(h\bmod p)\mid(h_0\bmod p)(hmodp)∣(h0​modp), unique up to sign; this is the factor the section recovers.

Fix an integer m≥lm\ge lm≥l. The lattice LLL is the set of polynomials g∈Z[X]g\in\mathbb Z[X]g∈Z[X] of degree at most mmm such that (h mod pk)(h\bmod p^k)(hmodpk) divides (g mod pk)(g\bmod p^k)(gmodpk). Identifying ∑i=0maiXi\sum_{i=0}^m a_iX^i∑i=0m​ai​Xi with (a0,…,am)∈Rm+1(a_0,\dots,a_m)\in\mathbb R^{m+1}(a0​,…,am​)∈Rm+1, LLL is a lattice of rank m+1m+1m+1 with basis {pkXi:0≤i<l}∪{hXj:0≤j≤m−l}\{p^kX^i:0\le i<l\}\cup\{hX^j:0\le j\le m-l\}{pkXi:0≤i<l}∪{hXj:0≤j≤m−l} and determinant pklp^{kl}pkl.

A basis b1,…,bm+1b_1,\dots,b_{m+1}b1​,…,bm+1​ of LLL is reduced if its Gram–Schmidt data bi∗b_i^*bi∗​, μij=(bi,bj∗)/(bj∗,bj∗)\mu_{ij}=(b_i,b_j^*)/(b_j^*,b_j^*)μij​=(bi​,bj∗​)/(bj∗​,bj∗​) satisfy ∣μij∣≤12|\mu_{ij}|\le\frac12∣μij​∣≤21​ for j<ij<ij<i and ∣bi∗+μi i−1bi−1∗∣2≥34∣bi−1∗∣2|b_i^*+\mu_{i\,i-1}b_{i-1}^*|^2\ge\frac34|b_{i-1}^*|^2∣bi∗​+μii−1​bi−1∗​∣2≥43​∣bi−1∗​∣2 for 1<i≤m+11<i\le m+11<i≤m+1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition (2.16)

Assume

(2.14)pkl>2mn/2(2mm)n/2∣f∣m+n,\text{(2.14)}\qquad p^{kl}>2^{mn/2}\binom{2m}{m}^{n/2}|f|^{m+n},(2.14)pkl>2mn/2(m2m​)n/2∣f∣m+n,

that b1,…,bm+1b_1,\dots,b_{m+1}b1​,…,bm+1​ is a reduced basis of LLL, and that some jjj satisfies

(2.17)∣bj∣<(pkl/∣f∣m)1/n.\text{(2.17)}\qquad |b_j|<\big(p^{kl}/|f|^m\big)^{1/n}.(2.17)∣bj​∣<(pkl/∣f∣m)1/n.

If ttt is the largest such jjj, then

deg⁡h0=m+1−t,h0=gcd⁡(b1,…,bt),\deg h_0=m+1-t,\qquad h_0=\gcd(b_1,\dots,b_t),degh0​=m+1−t,h0​=gcd(b1​,…,bt​),

and (2.17) holds for all 1≤j≤t1\le j\le t1≤j≤t.

Milestones

  1. (2.5): existence and uniqueness of h0h_0h0​, and for g∣fg\mid fg∣f the equivalence of (h mod p)∣(g mod p)(h\bmod p)\mid(g\bmod p)(hmodp)∣(gmodp), (h mod pk)∣(g mod pk)(h\bmod p^k)\mid(g\bmod p^k)(hmodpk)∣(gmodpk) and h0∣gh_0\mid gh0​∣g.
  2. (2.11): inside the proof of (2.7), the elements of M={λf+μb}M=\{\lambda f+\mu b\}M={λf+μb} of degree below e+le+le+l lie in pkZ[X]p^k\mathbb Z[X]pkZ[X].
  3. (2.7): if b∈Lb\in Lb∈L and pkl>∣f∣m∣b∣np^{kl}>|f|^m|b|^npkl>∣f∣m∣b∣n then h0∣bh_0\mid bh0​∣b.
  4. Mignotte's bound: a divisor ggg of fff with deg⁡g≤m\deg g\le mdegg≤m has ∣g∣≤(2mm)1/2∣f∣|g|\le\binom{2m}{m}^{1/2}|f|∣g∣≤(m2m​)1/2∣f∣.
  5. (2.13): under (2.14), deg⁡h0≤m\deg h_0\le mdegh0​≤m if and only if ∣b1∣<(pkl/∣f∣m)1/n|b_1|<(p^{kl}/|f|^m)^{1/n}∣b1​∣<(pkl/∣f∣m)1/n.
  6. (2.18): #J≤m+1−deg⁡h1\#J\le m+1-\deg h_1#J≤m+1−degh1​ for linearly independent bjb_jbj​ divisible by h1h_1h1​.
  7. (2.19): if deg⁡h0≤m\deg h_0\le mdegh0​≤m, then {1,…,m+1−deg⁡h0}⊂J\{1,\dots,m+1-\deg h_0\}\subset J{1,…,m+1−degh0​}⊂J.

Companion items: the basis of LLL and d(L)=pkld(L)=p^{kl}d(L)=pkl (2.6), and the remark that for t=1t=1t=1 the vector b1b_1b1​ is itself an irreducible factor of fff.

Significance

Proposition (2.16) is what makes the factoring algorithm of Sect. 3 correct: running the reduction for increasing mmm, the first mmm for which (2.15) holds produces h0h_0h0​ by one gcd computation, and repeating on f/h0f/h_0f/h0​ factors fff completely. Together with the polynomial running time of basis reduction (missions I and II of this series), it yields the polynomial-time factoring theorem (3.6). Proposition (2.7) on its own is a general principle, often reused: a polynomial that is divisible by hhh modulo pkp^kpk and has small norm relative to pklp^{kl}pkl must share the factor h0h_0h0​ with fff.

All results here are proved in the paper and standard in textbooks (e.g. von zur Gathen and Gerhard, Modern Computer Algebra). To our knowledge there is no machine-checked proof of (2.7), (2.13) or (2.16) in Lean or Mathlib. Mathlib has Hensel-type lemmas and the Mahler measure, including a coefficient-wise Mignotte bound and Landau's inequality, but not the ℓ2\ell^2ℓ2 form of Mignotte's bound used here, nor any of the lattice statements. A Lean development of this section would be the algebraic core of a verified LLL factoring theorem.

Difficulty

The obvious argument for (2.7) is to bound the resultant of fff and bbb: it is divisible by pklp^{kl}pkl when they share a factor modulo pkp^kpk, and bounded by ∣f∣m∣b∣n|f|^m|b|^n∣f∣m∣b∣n by Hadamard. That argument gives only gcd⁡(f,b)≠1\gcd(f,b)\ne1gcd(f,b)=1, the weaker version of [8], not that h0h_0h0​ divides bbb. The paper's sharper statement needs a lattice MMM of combinations λf+μb\lambda f+\mu bλf+μb, the projection to its top coefficients, and the congruence argument (2.11) that forces the low-degree elements of MMM into pkZ[X]p^k\mathbb Z[X]pkZ[X]; formalizing it requires determinant and Hadamard bounds for a lattice of rank n+m′−2en+m'-2en+m′−2e inside a space of polynomials.

Mignotte's ℓ2\ell^2ℓ2 bound needs the Mahler measure and the inequality ∣g∣≤(2dd)1/2M(g)|g|\le\binom{2d}{d}^{1/2}M(g)∣g∣≤(d2d​)1/2M(g), which is not the coefficient-wise form available in Mathlib. The step (2.19) needs Proposition (1.12) on reduced bases, which is the goal of mission I. The final part of (2.16) needs the primitivity of the basis vectors, which depends on LLL being exactly the set of multiples of hhh modulo pkp^kpk of degree at most mmm.

Formalization scope

Polynomials are Polynomial ℤ; (g mod q)(g\bmod q)(gmodq) is g.map (Int.castRingHom (ZMod q)); ∣g∣|g|∣g∣ is the square root of the sum of the squares of the coefficients over the support. Degrees are natDegree, except in (2.11), where degree with values in WithBot ℕ keeps deg⁡0=−∞\deg 0=-\inftydeg0=−∞ as on the page. A polynomial of degree at most mmm is identified with its coefficient vector in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin (m + 1)). Linear independence of b1,…,bm+1b_1,\dots,b_{m+1}b1​,…,bm+1​ is over R\mathbb RR on coefficient vectors; "basis for LLL" means in LLL, independent, and spanning LLL over Z\mathbb ZZ. Gram–Schmidt vectors are Mathlib's unnormalised InnerProductSpace.gramSchmidt.

Indices are 0-based: the paper's b1b_1b1​ is b 0. The index ttt of (2.16) is kept as the paper's 1-based value, 1≤t≤m+11\le t\le m+11≤t≤m+1, so deg⁡h0=m+1−t\deg h_0=m+1-tdegh0​=m+1−t appears unchanged. The powers 2mn/22^{mn/2}2mn/2, (2mm)n/2\binom{2m}{m}^{n/2}(m2m​)n/2, (2mm)1/2\binom{2m}{m}^{1/2}(m2m​)1/2 and (⋅)1/n(\cdot)^{1/n}(⋅)1/n are real powers with real exponents.

The standing assumptions are hypotheses of every item that involves ppp, kkk or hhh: ppp prime, k≥1k\ge1k≥1, deg⁡f>0\deg f>0degf>0, (2.1)–(2.4), m≥lm\ge lm≥l. Mignotte's bound (which assumes only f≠0f\ne0f=0) and (2.18) (pure linear algebra on polynomials of degree at most mmm) do not need them. The factor h0h_0h0​ is any irreducible h0∈Z[X]h_0\in\mathbb Z[X]h0​∈Z[X] with h0∣fh_0\mid fh0​∣f and (h mod p)∣(h0 mod p)(h\bmod p)\mid(h_0\bmod p)(hmodp)∣(h0​modp). A gcd is stated by its universal property (divides each, and every common divisor divides it), which determines it up to sign. Two milestones are stated slightly more generally than the page: Mignotte's bound for every divisor of degree at most mmm, and (2.18) for every nonzero common divisor h1h_1h1​.

The goal does not assume (2.7), (2.13), Mignotte's bound, (2.18) or (2.19); these are milestones. A trivial formalization in which h0h_0h0​ is an arbitrary divisor of fff, or in which "reduced basis" is asserted of a family that need not be a basis of LLL, is ruled out by the definitions.

Needed infrastructure: Hensel-type arguments over Z/pkZ\mathbb Z/p^k\mathbb ZZ/pkZ, Gauss's lemma, the Mahler measure, Hadamard's inequality, and Proposition (1.12) on reduced bases. The lattice determinant results and the ℓ2\ell^2ℓ2 Mignotte bound are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are proofs of the missing Mathlib infrastructure.

Selected references

  • A. K. Lenstra, H. W. Lenstra, Jr., L. Lovász, Factoring polynomials with rational coefficients, Math. Ann. 261 (1982), 515–534. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01457454
  • M. Mignotte, An inequality about factors of polynomials, Math. Comp. 28 (1974), 1153–1157 (reference [10] of the paper).
  • D. E. Knuth, The Art of Computer Programming, Vol. 2, Seminumerical Algorithms, Addison-Wesley, 1981, Exercise 4.6.2.20 (reference [7] of the paper).
  • A. K. Lenstra, Lattices and factorization of polynomials, Report IW 190/81, Mathematisch Centrum, Amsterdam, 1981 (reference [8] of the paper; its Theorem 2 is the weaker form of (2.7)).
  • J. von zur Gathen, J. Gerhard, Modern Computer Algebra, 3rd ed., Cambridge University Press, 2013, Ch. 16 (textbook treatment).
9 thms2 active usersReviewed
CombinatoricsOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Packet Routing and Job-Shop Scheduling in O(Congestion + Dilation) Steps: Edge-Simple Paths with Congestion c and Dilation d Admit an O(c + d)-Step Schedule with Constant-Size QueuesResearch Paper

Motivation

In a store-and-forward network, messages are cut into packets that travel from node to node along wires, one wire per time step, and wait in buffers between moves. Routing such traffic splits into two problems: choosing a path for each packet, and scheduling the packets along their paths, deciding at every step which packets move and which wait. Leighton, Maggs and Rao showed that the second problem always has an essentially optimal solution: once paths are fixed, two simple parameters of the paths determine the routing time up to a constant factor, on every network.

The result separates path selection from timing in the design of routing algorithms for parallel machines, and it reaches beyond networks: a job-shop problem in which every operation takes one unit of time and no job visits a machine twice is the same problem with jobs as packets and machines as edges.

Timeline.

  • 1988: Leighton, Maggs and Rao, extended abstract at FOCS, Universal packet routing algorithms.
  • 1994: the full paper in Combinatorica 14, with the existence theorem of an O(c+d)O(c+d)O(c+d) schedule with constant queues (Theorem 3.4) and a randomized on-line algorithm.
  • 1999: Leighton, Maggs and Richa, Fast algorithms for finding O(congestion + dilation) packet routing schedules, make the construction algorithmic, using the algorithmic Local Lemma of Beck.

Setting

A network is a directed multigraph: a type VVV of nodes, a type EEE of edges, and maps src,tgt:E→V\mathrm{src},\mathrm{tgt}:E\to Vsrc,tgt:E→V. A path is a list of edges e0,…,eℓ−1e_0,\dots,e_{\ell-1}e0​,…,eℓ−1​ with tgt(ek)=src(ek+1)\mathrm{tgt}(e_k)=\mathrm{src}(e_{k+1})tgt(ek​)=src(ek+1​); it is edge-simple if no edge occurs twice. A finite set PPP of packets is given, each with its path.

The dilation ddd is the largest number of edges on a path; the congestion ccc is the largest number of paths through one edge. Since a packet crosses at most one edge per step and an edge carries at most one packet per step, every schedule needs at least max⁡(c,d)\max(c,d)max(c,d) steps.

A schedule assigns to every packet ppp and every index kkk of its path the step τ(p,k)≥1\tau(p,k)\ge1τ(p,k)≥1 at which ppp crosses its kkk-th edge, strictly increasing in kkk. Its length is the last crossing step. A packet waits in its initial queue before its first crossing, in the edge queue at the head of the edge it last crossed between two crossings, and in its final queue after its last crossing. Only edge queues count for queue size: the other two are fixed by the instance. A schedule is valid if at most one packet crosses each edge at each step.

For the proof, the paper measures schedules that are not yet valid through frames: a TTT-frame is a run of TTT consecutive steps, and the relative congestion of a frame is the largest number of packets crossing one edge in it, divided by TTT.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.4 (p. 11)

There are absolute constants KKK and QQQ such that every finite set of packets with edge-simple paths of congestion at most ccc and dilation at most ddd, on any network, has a valid schedule with

length≤K (c+d),every edge queue≤Q at every step.\text{length}\le K\,(c+d),\qquad \text{every edge queue}\le Q \text{ at every step}.length≤K(c+d),every edge queue≤Q at every step.

The constants are not fixed: the paper proves existence, and any constants are a valid answer.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Lemma 3.1 (p. 8), the Lovász Local Lemma: events of probability at most ppp with dependence at most b≥1b\ge1b≥1 and 4pb<14pb<14pb<1 all fail together with positive probability.
  2. Lemma 3.2 (p. 8): with congestion and dilation at most ddd, a schedule of length O(d)O(d)O(d) with no waiting in edge queues and at most TTT packets per edge in every frame of size T≥log⁡2dT\ge\log_2 dT≥log2​d.
  3. The recurrences (pp. 12–13): I(1)=log⁡dI^{(1)}=\log dI(1)=logd, I(i+1)=log⁡5I(i)I^{(i+1)}=\log^5 I^{(i)}I(i+1)=log5I(i), r(1)=1r^{(1)}=1r(1)=1, r(i+1)=r(i)(1+κ/log⁡I(i))r^{(i+1)}=r^{(i)}(1+\kappa/\sqrt{\log I^{(i)}})r(i+1)=r(i)(1+κ/logI(i)​) stop at some j=O(log⁡∗d)j=O(\log^* d)j=O(log∗d) with r(j)=O(1)r^{(j)}=O(1)r(j)=O(1).
  4. Lemma 3.5 (p. 14): frame bounds for all sizes from TTT to 2T−12T-12T−1 imply them for all sizes ≥T\ge T≥T.
  5. The final simulation (pp. 12–13): a schedule with relative congestion O(1)O(1)O(1) in frames of constant size, in which every packet waits at most once every k1≥2k_1\ge2k1​≥2 steps, becomes a valid schedule, a constant factor longer, with constant edge queues.

Significance

The theorem shows that congestion and dilation, two quantities read off the paths alone, determine the optimal schedule length up to a constant factor on every network, with buffers of constant size. Path-selection algorithms that minimize c+dc+dc+d therefore yield near-optimal routing, and the same bound holds for unit-time job shops without repeated machines. It is also an often-cited application of the Local Lemma beyond a single round of random choices: the proof applies it O(log⁡∗d)O(\log^* d)O(log∗d) times in succession.

The result has been proved since 1994, and the algorithmic version since 1999. As far as is known, no part of it is machine-checked. The mission produces a formal model of store-and-forward schedules with edge queues and frames, a formal statement of the theorem that excludes the degenerate readings, and formal versions of the steps of its proof.

Difficulty

The naive approach gives each packet a random initial delay and then lets it move without waiting. That gives O(log⁡(Nd))O(\log(Nd))O(log(Nd)) packets per edge per step, and O(c+dlog⁡(Nd))O(c+d\log(Nd))O(c+dlog(Nd)) steps after slowing down. Lemma 3.2 does better only in frames of size log⁡d\log dlogd, not in single steps. Recursing on frames, as in Theorem 3.3, loses a constant factor per level and gives (c+d)2O(log⁡∗(c+d))(c+d)2^{O(\log^* (c+d))}(c+d)2O(log∗(c+d)).

Removing that factor is the central difficulty. Each refinement must keep the relative congestion nearly unchanged, r(i+1)=r(i)(1+O(1)/log⁡I(i))r^{(i+1)}=r^{(i)}(1+O(1)/\sqrt{\log I^{(i)}})r(i+1)=r(i)(1+O(1)/logI(i)​), which requires second-order terms in the tail estimates, delays spread over the block rather than inserted at its start, and careful handling of block boundaries. The constant queue bound needs an invariant: every packet waits at most once every I(i)I^{(i)}I(i) steps. The Local Lemma gives existence only; the construction is non-constructive.

Formalization scope

Conventions committed to in Lean:

  • The network is arbitrary: V E : Type with src tgt : E → V, no finiteness or degree bound. Packets form a Fintype P; paths are List E with matching endpoints (List.IsChain) and List.Nodup.
  • Congestion and dilation are bounds (CongestionLE path c, DilationLE path d), equivalent to exact values because every bound is monotone.
  • A schedule is a Timetable: time p k : ℕ, the step at which packet p crosses its k-th edge, at least 1 and strictly increasing in k. Length at most L means every crossing step is ≤ L. Valid means two different crossings of one edge happen at different steps.
  • The edge-queue size of edge g at the end of step t counts crossings of g at a step ≤ t whose packet crosses its next edge at a step > t. Initial and final queues are not counted.
  • Frames: frameCount τ g t T counts the packets that cross g at a step in [t, t+T). Relative congestion at most r in frames of size ≥ T₀ is frameCount ≤ r·T for all T ≥ 1 with T₀ ≤ T.
  • log is Real.logb 2. Every O(1) and "sufficiently large" is a constant quantified before the instance, and in the goal ∃ K Q comes before the network.
  • Lemma 3.1 is stated on an arbitrary probability space with measurable events. Dependence uses independence from the generated σ-algebra, and the statement adds 1 ≤ b, without which the page's statement is false.

These choices rule out the trivial formalizations: constants chosen after the instance would make K=cdK=cdK=cd suffice; a schedule without edge exclusivity would make the greedy schedule of length ddd a solution; a missing queue bound drops half of the theorem; and a statement without its length bound is solved by sending one packet at a time.

Not stated: Lemmas 3.6–3.10 and the summary of the refinement step (p. 20). They concern the block decomposition and delay-insertion rules of pp. 13–14 and 17–18, which the paper defines only in prose. Contributions are welcome on the Local Lemma (finite or general), the probabilistic estimates of Lemma 3.2, Lemma 3.5, the elementary simulation step, and formal definitions of the block operations from which Lemmas 3.6–3.10 can be stated. The schedule model is reusable for other routing results, such as the on-line algorithm of §2 or the O(c+d)O(c+d)O(c+d) results for leveled networks.

Selected references

  • F. T. Leighton, B. M. Maggs, S. B. Rao, Packet routing and job-shop scheduling in O(congestion + dilation) steps, Combinatorica 14 (1994) 167–186. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01215349 (this mission cites the authors' manuscript).
  • F. T. Leighton, B. M. Maggs, S. B. Rao, Universal packet routing algorithms, Proc. 29th IEEE FOCS (1988) 256–269.
  • F. T. Leighton, B. M. Maggs, A. W. Richa, Fast algorithms for finding O(congestion + dilation) packet routing schedules, Combinatorica 19 (1999) 375–401. https://doi.org/10.1007/s004930050061
  • P. Erdős, L. Lovász, Problems and results on 3-chromatic hypergraphs and some related questions, in Infinite and Finite Sets, Colloq. Math. Soc. János Bolyai 10 (1975) 609–627.
  • J. Spencer, Ten Lectures on the Probabilistic Method, SIAM (1987), pp. 57–58. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898719918
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Sequencing Jobs to Minimize Total Weighted Completion Time Subject to Precedence Constraints 1: The Series-Parallel Algorithm Returns an Optimal SequenceResearch Paper

Motivation

Sequencing jobs on one machine to minimize the total weighted completion time ∑jwjCj\sum_j w_jC_j∑j​wj​Cj​ is one of the basic problems of scheduling theory. Without precedence constraints it is solved by Smith's ratio rule (1956): sequence the jobs in nonincreasing order of wj/pjw_j/p_jwj​/pj​. With arbitrary precedence constraints the problem is NP-hard, as Lawler shows in the same report. Between these two extremes lies the class of series parallel precedence constraints, which covers chains, rooted trees and their nested combinations, and which is exactly the class that can be assembled from single jobs by "all of this before all of that" and "this independently of that".

Lawler's report (IRIA-LABORIA No. 205, 1976; Annals of Discrete Mathematics 2, 1978) gives an O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) algorithm for this class, once a decomposition of the constraints is known. It is the standard reference for the polynomial case of 1 ∣ prec ∣ ∑wjCj1\,|\,\mathrm{prec}\,|\,\sum w_jC_j1∣prec∣∑wj​Cj​.

Timeline.

  • 1956, Smith: the ratio rule, no precedence constraints.
  • 1964, Conway, Maxwell and Miller: parallel chains with unit weights.
  • 1971–1973, Baker, Horn, Adolphson and Hu: rooted trees, in O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn).
  • 1975, Sidney: job modules and ρ\rhoρ-maximal initial sets, for arbitrary precedence constraints, without an efficient method to find them.
  • 1976/1978, Lawler: series parallel constraints in O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn); NP-completeness for arbitrary constraints.

Setting

There are nnn jobs, forming a finite set NNN, to be processed by a single machine. Precedence constraints are given by an acyclic digraph G=(N,A)G=(N,A)G=(N,A): job iii must precede job jjj if there is a directed path from iii to jjj. Job jjj has a processing time pj>0p_j>0pj​>0 and a real weight wjw_jwj​ (of either sign). A feasible sequence lists every job once and never puts a job before one that must precede it. The machine starts at time 000 without idle time, so the completion time CjC_jCj​ of job jjj is the sum of the processing times of jjj and the jobs before it. The cost of a sequence is ∑j∈NwjCj\sum_{j\in N} w_jC_j∑j∈N​wj​Cj​, and an optimal sequence is a feasible sequence of minimum cost.

A transitive series parallel digraph is built from single nodes by series composition (N1∪N2, A1∪A2∪N1×N2)(N_1\cup N_2,\ A_1\cup A_2\cup N_1\times N_2)(N1​∪N2​, A1​∪A2​∪N1​×N2​) and parallel composition (N1∪N2, A1∪A2)(N_1\cup N_2,\ A_1\cup A_2)(N1​∪N2​, A1​∪A2​) of digraphs on disjoint node sets. GGG is series parallel if its transitive closure is transitive series parallel. A decomposition tree records such a construction: its leaves are the jobs, and its internal nodes are marked SSS (left son before right son) or PPP.

Sidney's theory works with three notions. A nonempty M⊆NM\subseteq NM⊆N is a module if every job outside MMM must precede all of MMM, must follow all of MMM, or is unconstrained with respect to all of MMM. A subset I⊆MI\subseteq MI⊆M is an initial set of MMM if it contains, with each of its jobs, every job of MMM that must precede it. With

ρ(I)=∑j∈Iwj∑j∈Ipj,\rho(I)=\frac{\sum_{j\in I}w_j}{\sum_{j\in I}p_j},ρ(I)=∑j∈I​pj​∑j∈I​wj​​,

an initial set I∗I^*I∗ is ρ\rhoρ-maximal if ρ(I∗)≥ρ(I)\rho(I^*)\ge\rho(I)ρ(I∗)≥ρ(I) for every initial set III of MMM.

A composite job is a sequence of jobs treated as one job whose weight and processing time are the sums over its jobs. Lawler's algorithm works bottom-up on the decomposition tree and represents an optimal sequence for each node's module as a set of composite jobs: a leaf gives its job, a PPP-node the union of its sons' sets, and an SSS-node the output of the series procedure (Steps 1–3, p. 11), which absorbs elements of M1M_1M1​ and M2M_2M2​ into a composite job k=(i,k)k=(i,k)k=(i,k) or k=(k,j)k=(k,j)k=(k,j) until the ratios separate.

Formalization targets

Goal: the algorithm is correct

For a decomposition tree TTT of GGG and any run of the algorithm on TTT producing the set FFF of composite jobs, every arrangement LLL of FFF in nonincreasing ratio order, with each composite job expanded into its sequence, is an optimal sequence:

flatten⁡(L) is an optimal sequence for N.\operatorname{flatten}(L)\ \text{is an optimal sequence for } N .flatten(L) is an optimal sequence for N.

Ties, both in the algorithm's choice of minimal and maximal elements and in the final sort, may be broken arbitrarily.

Milestones

  1. Subtrees are modules (p. 7): the leaves of any subtree of a decomposition tree form a module.
  2. Theorem 1 (p. 7): an optimal sequence for a module extends to an optimal sequence for NNN in which the module's jobs keep their order.
  3. Existence (Definition 3, p. 8): every module has a ρ\rhoρ-maximal initial set.
  4. Theorem 2 (p. 8): for a ρ\rhoρ-maximal initial set III of a module MMM, some optimal sequence for NNN runs III consecutively, before all other jobs of MMM.
  5. Ratio order (p. 10): composite jobs in nonincreasing ratio order cost no more than in any other order.
  6. Parallel composition (p. 10): the union of two representing sets represents the parallel composition.
  7. Series composition, separated ratios (p. 10): if every ratio in M1M_1M1​ exceeds every ratio in M2M_2M2​, the union represents the series composition.
  8. Series composition, Steps 1–3 (pp. 10–11): the output of the series procedure represents the series composition.

A companion theorem states that the algorithm always has a run.

Significance

The result places 1 ∣ prec ∣ ∑wjCj1\,|\,\mathrm{prec}\,|\,\sum w_jC_j1∣prec∣∑wj​Cj​ with series parallel constraints in polynomial time. Sidney's module and ρ\rhoρ-maximal initial set machinery, which it uses, is the decomposition later used in approximation algorithms for general precedence constraints; Theorems 1 and 2 hold for arbitrary acyclic constraints.

The algorithm and Sidney's theorems are proved in the literature; none of them has a machine-checked proof. The report proves Theorems 1 and 2 by citation to Sidney's 25 lemmas and argues the algorithm's correctness informally in a few paragraphs. A formal development supplies the missing invariants (what exactly is preserved at each node of the tree) and checks that arbitrary tie-breaking is harmless.

Difficulty

The algorithm's correctness rests on an invariant the page states only in passing: that composite jobs behave as single jobs. Read literally, "nonincreasing ratio order is optimal for M1M_1M1​ and for M2M_2M2​" does not imply the same for their parallel composition. A composite job of two unconstrained jobs can be optimal on its own module yet blocks a better interleaving once another module is added. The invariant that makes the induction go through is that every composite job is a ρ\rhoρ-maximal initial set of itself, and the series procedure must be shown to preserve it while merging. The second difficulty is Theorems 1 and 2 themselves: exchange arguments over sequences of a whole module, with real weights of either sign, under arbitrary acyclic constraints.

Formalization scope

Jobs have a type ι\iotaι with decidable equality; NNN is a Finset ι; the arcs are a relation G : ι → ι → Prop with endpoints in NNN, acyclic in the sense that no job reaches itself by a path, and "must precede" is Relation.TransGen G. Processing times are positive on NNN, weights are arbitrary reals. The objective and optimality are the published SingleMachinePrec.Biclique.WeightedCompletion; feasibility is checked against the arcs of GGG, which for a sequence listing each job once is the same as against its paths. "Optimal for MMM" uses the job set MMM.

The decomposition tree is an inductive SPTree with leaves, SSS-nodes and PPP-nodes. It is tied to GGG by three hypotheses: its leaves are distinct, they are exactly NNN, and on NNN the transitive closure of GGG equals the arc relation of the transitive series parallel digraph the tree builds. Composite jobs are lists of jobs, sets of composite jobs are lists of lists, and their ratio is ∑w/∑p\sum w/\sum p∑w/∑p over the list. The algorithm is an inductive relation (Run, SeriesMerge, SeriesLoop), so every tie-breaking is a run. The dummies of ratio ±∞\pm\infty±∞ in Step 1 become vacuous conditions on empty sets.

Committed conventions and disclosed deviations:

  • Lean evaluates 0/0=00/0=00/0=0, so ρ(∅)=0\rho(\emptyset)=0ρ(∅)=0; ρ\rhoρ-maximality compares nonempty initial sets only and requires the maximal set to be nonempty, and composite jobs are nonempty.
  • Modules use the disjunction of (4.1)–(4.3); for acyclic GGG and nonempty MMM this is the page's "exactly one".
  • "Represents an optimal sequence" includes the composite invariant (every nonempty proper prefix has ratio at most the whole). Without it the parallel and series milestones are false.
  • In the parallel and series milestones, M1M_1M1​, M2M_2M2​ and M1∪M2M_1\cup M_2M1​∪M2​ are assumed to be modules, as on the page (the sons of a node of the decomposition tree and the node itself). Without this, a path through a job outside M1∪M2M_1\cup M_2M1​∪M2​ could constrain two of its jobs while feasibility on M1∪M2M_1\cup M_2M1​∪M2​ does not see it, and the series milestone would be false.
  • The introduction's "nondecreasing order of the ratios" (p. 1) is a slip for the nonincreasing order used in §5; the formalization uses nonincreasing.

The goal assumes nothing about modules, Theorem 2 or subtrees, only the tree, the data and a run, and the companion theorem shows that runs exist, so the goal is neither trivial nor vacuous.

Needed infrastructure: exchange arguments for ∑wjCj\sum w_jC_j∑wj​Cj​ on lists, restriction of sequences to modules, induction over decomposition trees. Theorems 1 and 2 and the ratio-order lemma are reusable in any 1 ∣ prec ∣ ∑wjCj1\,|\,\mathrm{prec}\,|\,\sum w_jC_j1∣prec∣∑wj​Cj​ development. Proofs of any milestone, and of the goal from the milestones, are welcome.

Selected references

  • E. L. Lawler, Sequencing jobs to minimize total weighted completion time subject to precedence constraints, IRIA-LABORIA Rapport de Recherche No. 205, December 1976. https://hal.science/hal-04716371v1. Journal version: Annals of Discrete Mathematics 2 (1978), 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70323-6
  • J. B. Sidney, Decomposition algorithms for single-machine sequencing with precedence relations and deferral costs, Operations Research 23 (1975), 283–298. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.23.2.283
  • W. E. Smith, Various optimizers for single-stage production, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 3 (1956), 59–66. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800030106
  • J. Valdes, R. E. Tarjan, E. L. Lawler, The recognition of series parallel digraphs, SIAM Journal on Computing 11 (1982), 298–313. https://doi.org/10.1137/0211023
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Subadditive Ergodic Theory 6: The Ulam–Hammersley Constant of the Longest Increasing Subsequence Satisfies (8/π)^{1/2} ≤ c ≤ δ^{1/2} + δ^{−1/2}Research Paper

Motivation

Ulam asked, in the early 1960s, how long the longest increasing subsequence of a random permutation typically is. The question is a test case for a whole class of problems in combinatorial probability: a quantity defined by an optimisation over exponentially many configurations (here, all subsequences) whose typical size has to be found without enumerating them. The same structure appears in last-passage percolation, in the patience-sorting card game, in sequence comparison, and in scheduling problems where the longest chain of a random partial order determines a makespan.

J. F. C. Kingman's IMS Special Invited Paper Subadditive ergodic theory (Ann. Probab. 1 (1973), 883–899) presents Ulam's problem in §2.4 as an application of the subadditive ergodic theorem, following J. M. Hammersley, and then proves explicit bounds on the limiting constant. This mission formalizes those bounds.

Timeline.

  • Ulam (1961) raised the question and conjectured, from simulations, that the typical length grows like a constant times n\sqrt nn​.
  • Erdős and Szekeres (1935) had already shown deterministically that every permutation of nnn elements has an increasing or a decreasing subsequence of length at least n\sqrt nn​.
  • Hammersley (A few seedlings of research, Proc. Sixth Berkeley Symp. 1 (1972), 345–394) proved, by embedding the permutation in a planar Poisson process and applying a subadditivity argument, that n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2 times the length converges in probability to a constant ccc, and showed 12π≤c≤e\tfrac12\pi\le c\le e21​π≤c≤e.
  • Kingman (1973), the paper of this mission, refined the bounds to (8/π)1/2≤c≤δ1/2+δ−1/2(8/\pi)^{1/2}\le c\le\delta^{1/2}+\delta^{-1/2}(8/π)1/2≤c≤δ1/2+δ−1/2, that is 1.59<c<2.491.59<c<2.491.59<c<2.49.
  • Logan and Shepp (1977) and Vershik and Kerov (1977) later identified the constant exactly. That later work is not part of this mission.

Setting

Let Sn\mathcal S_nSn​ be the group of permutations of {1,2,…,n}\{1,2,\dots,n\}{1,2,…,n}. For σ∈Sn\sigma\in\mathcal S_nσ∈Sn​, a sequence of positions 1≤i1<i2<⋯<ik≤n1\le i_1<i_2<\dots<i_k\le n1≤i1​<i2​<⋯<ik​≤n is ascending if σ(i1)<σ(i2)<⋯<σ(ik)\sigma(i_1)<\sigma(i_2)<\dots<\sigma(i_k)σ(i1​)<σ(i2​)<⋯<σ(ik​). The length of the longest ascending sequence, l(σ)l(\sigma)l(σ), is the largest such kkk.

The uniform distribution on Sn\mathcal S_nSn​ gives each of the n!n!n! permutations probability 1/n!1/n!1/n!, so an event A⊆SnA\subseteq\mathcal S_nA⊆Sn​ has probability P{A}=∣A∣/n!P\{A\}=|A|/n!P{A}=∣A∣/n!. Let πn\pi_nπn​ denote a permutation drawn from this distribution. The sequence n−1/2 l(πn)n^{-1/2}\,l(\pi_n)n−1/2l(πn​) converges in probability to a real number ccc if, for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0,

P{∣n−1/2 l(πn)−c∣>ε}→0(n→∞).P\{|n^{-1/2}\,l(\pi_n)-c|>\varepsilon\}\to0\qquad(n\to\infty).P{∣n−1/2l(πn​)−c∣>ε}→0(n→∞).

For integers k≥1k\ge1k≥1, νk(σ)\nu_k(\sigma)νk​(σ) denotes the number of ascending sequences of length kkk in σ\sigmaσ. For 0<α<b0<\alpha<b0<α<b write

E(α,b)=2α+(b−α)log⁡(b−α)−αlog⁡α−blog⁡b,E(\alpha,b)=2\alpha+(b-\alpha)\log(b-\alpha)-\alpha\log\alpha-b\log b ,E(α,b)=2α+(b−α)log(b−α)−αlogα−blogb,

the exponent appearing in Kingman's condition (2.4.8). (The paper calls the second variable β\betaβ; in Lean it is bbb, because β\betaβ also names the constant below.)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8

Let ccc be the limit in probability of n−1/2l(πn)n^{-1/2}l(\pi_n)n−1/2l(πn​). Let δ\deltaδ be the unique positive root of log⁡(1+δ)=2δ/(1+δ)\log(1+\delta)=2\delta/(1+\delta)log(1+δ)=2δ/(1+δ), and β=δ1/2+δ−1/2\beta=\delta^{1/2}+\delta^{-1/2}β=δ1/2+δ−1/2. Then

(8π)1/2≤c≤β(2.4.4)\Big(\frac8\pi\Big)^{1/2}\le c\le\beta \tag{2.4.4}(π8​)1/2≤c≤β(2.4.4)

and hence

1.59<c<2.49.(2.4.5)1.59<c<2.49. \tag{2.4.5}1.59<c<2.49.(2.4.5)

Numerically δ≈3.9216\delta\approx3.9216δ≈3.9216 and β≈2.4853\beta\approx2.4853β≈2.4853. The goal states (2.4.4) and (2.4.5) as printed, together with the existence and uniqueness of δ\deltaδ.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 7 (Hammersley). There is an absolute constant ccc such that n−1/2l(πn)→cn^{-1/2}l(\pi_n)\to cn−1/2l(πn​)→c in probability.
  2. The double integral of the lower-bound argument: ∫0∞ ⁣∫0∞x e−12(x+y)2 dx dy=(π/8)1/2\int_0^\infty\!\int_0^\infty x\,e^{-\frac12(x+y)^2}\,dx\,dy=(\pi/8)^{1/2}∫0∞​∫0∞​xe−21​(x+y)2dxdy=(π/8)1/2.
  3. First moment of ν\nuν: for k≥1k\ge1k≥1, E(νk)=(nk)(k!)−1E(\nu_k)=\binom nk(k!)^{-1}E(νk​)=(kn​)(k!)−1.
  4. Subsequence count: if l(σ)≥kl(\sigma)\ge kl(σ)≥k then νk(σ)≥(l(σ)k)\nu_k(\sigma)\ge\binom{l(\sigma)}kνk​(σ)≥(kl(σ)​).
  5. (2.4.7): for 1≤k≤r1\le k\le r1≤k≤r, P{l(π)≥r}≤(nk)[k!(rk)]−1P\{l(\pi)\ge r\}\le\binom nk\big[k!\binom rk\big]^{-1}P{l(π)≥r}≤(kn​)[k!(kr​)]−1.
  6. (2.4.8): if 0<α<b0<\alpha<b0<α<b and E(α,b)<0E(\alpha,b)<0E(α,b)<0, then P{l(π)≥b n1/2}→0P\{l(\pi)\ge b\,n^{1/2}\}\to0P{l(π)≥bn1/2}→0.
  7. The optimisation: inf⁡{b>0:∃α∈(0,b), E(α,b)<0}=δ1/2+δ−1/2\inf\{b>0:\exists\alpha\in(0,b),\ E(\alpha,b)<0\}=\delta^{1/2}+\delta^{-1/2}inf{b>0:∃α∈(0,b), E(α,b)<0}=δ1/2+δ−1/2.

Significance

The result. Theorem 8 was, at the time, the sharpest rigorous information about Ulam's constant. Its upper bound comes from a first-moment computation that applies to any random structure in which long increasing chains can be counted; the same calculation bounds the longest chain in random partial orders and the height of random kkk-dimensional orders. The lower bound shows that a greedy path through a Poisson process already achieves a positive fraction of the optimum, an argument reused for last-passage percolation models.

Formalizing it. All results here are proved in the literature; none is open. To the best of our knowledge none of them has been machine-checked. A complete development produces: an exact non-asymptotic tail bound on the longest increasing subsequence ((2.4.7)), useful on its own; a Stirling-type asymptotic for products of binomial coefficients at scale n\sqrt nn​; and, through Theorem 7, a formal existence proof of the Ulam constant. Theorem 7 is the substantial piece: the paper's proof is a sketch through a continuous-parameter subadditive ergodic theorem and a planar Poisson process.

Difficulty

The upper bound needs care with asymptotics: (2.4.7) holds for each nnn, but the passage to (2.4.8) uses Stirling's formula with kkk and rrr integers tending to infinity at rate n\sqrt nn​, and the infimum in milestone 7 is not attained (the admissible set is open), so the argument must produce, for every b>βb>\betab>β, a suitable α\alphaα.

The lower bound is where the obvious approach fails. A first-moment or counting argument gives only upper bounds on lll; a lower bound requires exhibiting long ascending sequences. The paper's argument does this with a greedy path in a planar Poisson process, which is not a statement about uniform permutations and needs the Poissonization of Theorem 7 to transfer back. Proving c≥(8/π)1/2c\ge(8/\pi)^{1/2}c≥(8/π)1/2 directly from the counting definition of lll is not available. Both bounds also need the existence of ccc, which is Theorem 7.

Formalization scope

  • Sn\mathcal S_nSn​ is Equiv.Perm (Fin n); the permutation is named σ\sigmaσ in Lean because π\piπ is Real.pi.
  • l(σ)l(\sigma)l(σ) is the largest cardinality of a finite set of positions on which σ\sigmaσ is strictly increasing; νk(σ)\nu_k(\sigma)νk​(σ) is the number of such sets with exactly kkk elements.
  • Probabilities under the uniform law are proportions ∣A∣/n!|A|/n!∣A∣/n!. Convergence in probability depends only on the law of each πn\pi_nπn​ (the paper notes this on p. 895), so no common probability space is introduced. Time is n∈Nn\in\mathbb Nn∈N, and at n=0n=0n=0 Lean reads l/0l/\sqrt0l/0​ as 000, which does not affect a limit.
  • The constant of Theorem 8 enters as a hypothesis: the goal is stated for every real ccc to which n−1/2l(πn)n^{-1/2}l(\pi_n)n−1/2l(πn​) converges in probability. Such a limit is unique, and Theorem 7 shows it exists. No sign or bound on ccc is assumed. The goal and milestone 7 assert that the positive root δ\deltaδ exists and is unique, so the upper bound cannot hold vacuously for want of a root.
  • The double integral is stated as a value only; the claim that it is the mean of i.i.d. increments of a Poisson greedy path is not formalized.

Needed infrastructure: counting arguments on Finset.powersetCard; Stirling's formula (Mathlib has Stirling.tendsto_stirlingSeq_sqrt_pi); elementary calculus for the root δ\deltaδ; Gaussian-type integrals on the quadrant. Theorem 7 additionally needs Poisson point processes in the plane, which Mathlib lacks, or another route to the existence of the limit. Contributions of that infrastructure are welcome and reusable well beyond this mission. The counting bounds (milestones 3–5) are independent of Theorem 7 and are a natural first target.

Selected references

  • J. F. C. Kingman, Subadditive ergodic theory, Annals of Probability 1(6) (1973), 883–899. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996798
  • J. M. Hammersley, A few seedlings of research, Proc. Sixth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Vol. 1 (1972), 345–394. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bsmsp/1200514101
  • S. M. Ulam, Monte Carlo calculations in problems of mathematical physics, in Modern Mathematics for the Engineer, Second Series, McGraw-Hill (1961), 261–281.
  • P. Erdős and G. Szekeres, A combinatorial problem in geometry, Compositio Mathematica 2 (1935), 463–470. http://www.numdam.org/item/CM_1935__2__463_0/
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Dynamical SystemsOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Subadditive Ergodic Theory 3: A Separable Continuous-Parameter Subadditive Process with E(Ω_I) < ∞ Has x₀ₜ/t → ξ with Probability One and in Mean, E(ξ) = γResearch Paper

Motivation

Many random growth models attach a cost, distance, or accumulated quantity to each time interval. If the quantity over a long interval is at most the sum over two adjacent intervals, it is subadditive. A stable rate over long intervals is useful even when the underlying random system does not have a simple independent-increment description. Kingman's 1973 account places percolation and products of random matrices among the applications of this framework. Its basic theorem treats integer time; the present mission concerns the change to every nonnegative real time. Kingman, §1.1 and §1.4.

The change matters because observing a process at integer times can miss arbitrarily large behavior between observations. Kingman gives a smooth stationary-increment example in Theorem 3 where no prescribed increasing bound eventually controls the values at all real times. Theorem 4 gives a condition that does control this local behavior. These two results together explain why the continuous-time statement needs more than a formal change of index type. Kingman, Theorems 3–4.

Setting

Work on a probability space (S,F,P)(S,\mathcal F,P)(S,F,P). A continuous-parameter subadditive process is a family of real random variables xstx_{st}xst​ indexed by 0≤s<t0\le s<t0≤s<t. It satisfies xsu≤xst+xtux_{su}\le x_{st}+x_{tu}xsu​≤xst​+xtu​ whenever 0≤s<t<u0\le s<t<u0≤s<t<u. Its stationarity says that, for every real shift τ≥0\tau\ge0τ≥0, the complete shifted family (xs+τ,t+τ)s<t(x_{s+\tau,t+\tau})_{s<t}(xs+τ,t+τ​)s<t​ has the same joint distribution as (xst)s<t(x_{st})_{s<t}(xst​)s<t​. Finally, the mean gt=E(x0t)g_t=E(x_{0t})gt​=E(x0t​) exists as a finite real number for each t>0t>0t>0 and obeys gt≥−Atg_t\ge-Atgt​≥−At for one constant AAA. These are the continuous-time versions of Kingman's conditions S₁, S₂, and S₃. Equality of the law of each individual coordinate would be too weak for S₂. Kingman, pp. 883–884, 887.

For an interval I⊆[0,∞)I\subseteq[0,\infty)I⊆[0,∞), the oscillation is ΩI=sup⁡s<t, s,t∈I∣xst∣\Omega_I=\sup_{s<t,\,s,t\in I}|x_{st}|ΩI​=sups<t,s,t∈I​∣xst​∣. A process has the local oscillation condition when E(ΩI)<∞E(\Omega_I)<\inftyE(ΩI​)<∞ for one nondegenerate interval III. In §1.4 the paper states that this condition then holds on every bounded interval. The quantity γ=inf⁡t>0gt/t\gamma=\inf_{t>0}g_t/tγ=inft>0​gt​/t is the mean growth rate. Kingman, (1.4.1), (1.4.6)–(1.4.7).

The paper also requires separability. Here this means that, outside one probability-zero set, the value at every admissible pair of times can be approached along a sequence from a fixed countable dense set of pairs. It is a condition on how the uncountable family is observed, and it permits discontinuous sample paths. Kingman cites the standard separability convention without defining it in §1.4; the mission makes the convention explicit. Kingman, Theorem 4 and following discussion.

Formalization targets

Theorem 4: convergence at all real times

For a separable process satisfying S₁–S₃ and the local oscillation condition, the target is an integrable real random variable ξ\xiξ such that

x0tt⟶ξalmost surely and in L1(P)(t→∞, t∈R),E(ξ)=γ=inf⁡u>0guu.\frac{x_{0t}}{t}\longrightarrow\xi\quad\text{almost surely and in }L^1(P) \quad(t\to\infty,\ t\in\mathbb R), \qquad E(\xi)=\gamma=\inf_{u>0}\frac{g_u}{u}.tx0t​​⟶ξalmost surely and in L1(P)(t→∞, t∈R),E(ξ)=γ=u>0inf​ugu​​.

The time variable ranges over all real values tending to infinity. The integer-time assertion (1.4.8) is a separate milestone, not the goal. Other milestones identify the deterministic mean rate, extend the oscillation condition to bounded intervals, record the bounds at times between consecutive integers, and state the vanishing of normalized unit-interval oscillation. Each comes from a sentence or display in §1.4. Kingman, Theorem 4 and proof.

Significance

Theorem 4 gives a long-run rate for a broad stationary subadditive family without assuming that its trajectories are continuous or differentiable. Its mean statement identifies the expectation of the random limit with a deterministic infimum of normalized expectations. The paper notes that the usual continuous-time ergodic theorem for additive integral processes is a corollary, because such processes satisfy its oscillation condition. The condition is therefore compatible with familiar additive models while also covering discontinuous subadditive ones. Kingman, p. 890.

The theorem and its argument are known from the paper; this mission asks for a machine-checked development of the stated result. A completed development would provide reusable formal interfaces for joint-law stationarity of an uncountable family, separability, extended-valued oscillations, and almost-sure plus L1L^1L1 limits. The proposed theorem statements compile as open goals; compiling them does not prove them. Kingman, §1.4.

Difficulty

An integer-time subadditive theorem controls x0n/nx_{0n}/nx0n​/n only on its discrete skeleton. It cannot by itself rule out large values of x0t/tx_{0t}/tx0t​/t for times between consecutive integers; Theorem 3 shows that such behavior can occur even with smooth stationary sample paths and finite expectations. A continuous-time result must control local variation as the observation window moves to large times. The uncountable supremum in ΩI\Omega_IΩI​ also needs a genuine extended value and a measurability convention. Kingman, Theorems 3–4.

The paper's displayed assertion (1.4.1), that gt/tg_t/tgt​/t converges as real t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞ under S₁–S₃ alone, needs qualification: a discontinuous additive function can make a deterministic subadditive mean with no such limit. The corresponding milestone includes the finite-oscillation condition assumed by Theorem 4. This correction is disclosed in the theorem's formalization note. Kingman, (1.4.1), (1.4.7).

Formalization scope

Lean indexes the family by R→R→S→R\mathbb R\to\mathbb R\to S\to\mathbb RR→R→S→R and uses only 0≤s<t0\le s<t0≤s<t; values at other pairs carry no meaning. Each valid coordinate is measurable. S₁ is pointwise in the sample point, while S₂ is equality of the probability laws of the complete path before and after every nonnegative real shift. S₃ states integrability of x0tx_{0t}x0t​ for every t>0t>0t>0 and one linear lower bound on its mean. The sample-space type is called SSS so that ΩI\Omega_IΩI​ denotes oscillation without ambiguity.

Oscillation is valued in the extended nonnegative reals. Thus an unbounded supremum is infinite, and the expected-oscillation condition cannot hold because of a default real-supremum value. Separability is the countable graph-approximation condition outside one measurable null set. The premise is finiteness on one closed interval [a,b][a,b][a,b] with 0≤a<b0\le a<b0≤a<b; the propagation milestone covers bounded intervals with either choice of endpoints. The limit in Theorem 4 uses the filter at infinity on real time. Its almost-sure convergence and convergence in mean are separate clauses, and ξ\xiξ is integrable. No continuity of paths, ergodicity, or independence is assumed.

A complete proof may build on Mathlib's measure theory, filters, Borel–Cantelli lemmas, and real analysis. The process and oscillation definitions, along with the finite-oscillation and skeleton statements, are reusable beyond this particular theorem. Contributions that establish these interfaces and the named intermediate statements are within scope. A statement limited to integer times, a marginal-only version of stationarity, or a real supremum that returns a default value on an unbounded set would not express this target.

Selected references

  • J. F. C. Kingman, Subadditive ergodic theory, The Annals of Probability 1(6):883–899, 1973. DOI: 10.1214/aop/1176996798.
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CombinatoricsOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Flowshop and Jobshop Schedules: Complexity and Approximation 2: The 3-Partition Flow Shop on Three Machines Has a Preemptive Schedule of Finish Time 2tB Iff a 3-Partition ExistsResearch Paper

Motivation

A flow shop is the simplest multi-stage production model: every job passes through the same machines in the same order, and the question is how to sequence the work so that everything is finished as early as possible. Gonzalez and Sahni's 1978 paper in Operations Research settled the computational complexity of the preemptive version of this problem, in which a task may be interrupted and resumed later on the same machine. For two machines the optimal finish time is computed by Johnson's rule, and preemption does not help. The paper shows that with three machines the preemptive problem is already NP-complete, and its second result, Theorem 2, strengthens this to NP-completeness in the strong sense: the problem stays hard even when the task times are written in unary.

Strong NP-completeness matters because it rules out a pseudo-polynomial algorithm, one whose running time is polynomial in the sum of the task lengths. The preemptive three-machine flow shop (F3∣pmtn∣Cmax⁡F3\mid pmtn\mid C_{\max}F3∣pmtn∣Cmax​ in later notation) is a standard entry in complexity classifications of scheduling problems, and Theorem 2 is the reference for its status. The paper notes that Garey and Johnson obtained a proof independently.

Timeline. Johnson (1954) solved the two-machine flow shop. Garey, Johnson and Sethi (1976) proved the non-preemptive three-machine flow shop NP-complete in the strong sense. Gonzalez and Sahni (1978) treated the preemptive case: Theorem 1 (ordinary NP-completeness via Partition) and Theorem 2 (strong NP-completeness via 3-Partition), the subject of this mission.

Setting

A flow shop has m≥1m\ge 1m≥1 processors P1,…,PmP_1,\dots,P_mP1​,…,Pm​ and a finite set of jobs. Task jjj of job iii runs on PjP_jPj​ and takes time tj,i≥0t_{j,i}\ge 0tj,i​≥0; zero times are allowed. For each job, task j≥2j\ge 2j≥2 can begin only after task j−1j-1j−1 has been completed, and schedules start at time 000.

A preemptive schedule is given, as in the paper's footnote on p. 40, by finitely many pieces (s,f)(s,f)(s,f) per task: the task is processed on its processor during [s,f)[s,f)[s,f). Pieces have 0≤s<f0\le s<f0≤s<f, pieces on the same processor do not overlap, the pieces of a task have total length tj,it_{j,i}tj,i​, and a piece of task j′j'j′ starts only after every piece of every earlier task j<j′j<j'j<j′ of the same job has ended. A task has no preemption when it is processed in at most one piece; a non-preemptive schedule has no preemption anywhere. The completion time of job iii is fi(S)f_i(S)fi​(S), the end of its last piece, and the finish time is FT(S)=max⁡ifi(S)FT(S)=\max_i f_i(S)FT(S)=maxi​fi​(S).

3-Partition. An instance C=(a1,…,as,B)C=(a_1,\dots,a_s,B)C=(a1​,…,as​,B), s=3ts=3ts=3t, consists of a positive integer BBB and nonnegative integers aia_iai​ with ∑iai=tB\sum_i a_i=tB∑i​ai​=tB and B/4<ai<B/2B/4<a_i<B/2B/4<ai​<B/2. It has a 3-partition if {1,…,s}\{1,\dots,s\}{1,…,s} splits into ttt disjoint sets L1,…,LtL_1,\dots,L_tL1​,…,Lt​, each of three elements with ∑j∈Lkaj=B\sum_{j\in L_k}a_j=B∑j∈Lk​​aj​=B.

The instance FS. From CCC the proof of Lemma 4 builds a three-processor flow shop with s+t+2s+t+2s+t+2 jobs:

  • jobs 1,…,s1,\dots,s1,…,s: times (ai, 0, ai)(a_i,\,0,\,a_i)(ai​,0,ai​) on (P1,P2,P3)(P_1,P_2,P_3)(P1​,P2​,P3​);
  • job s+1s+1s+1: (0, 2B, B)(0,\,2B,\,B)(0,2B,B);
  • jobs s+i+1s+i+1s+i+1, 1≤i≤t−21\le i\le t-21≤i≤t−2: (B, 2B, B)(B,\,2B,\,B)(B,2B,B);
  • job s+ts+ts+t: (B, 2B, 0)(B,\,2B,\,0)(B,2B,0);
  • job s+t+1s+t+1s+t+1: (0, 0, B)(0,\,0,\,B)(0,0,B);
  • job s+t+2s+t+2s+t+2: (B, 0, 0)(B,\,0,\,0)(B,0,0).

Each processor carries total work exactly 2tB2tB2tB, and the threshold is τ=2tB\tau=2tBτ=2tB.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2, as Lemma 4's equivalence

For every 3-Partition instance CCC with t≥2t\ge 2t≥2,

∃ S preemptive schedule of FS: FT(S)≤2tB⟺C has a 3-partition,\exists\,S \text{ preemptive schedule of } FS:\ FT(S)\le 2tB \quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad C \text{ has a 3-partition},∃S preemptive schedule of FS: FT(S)≤2tB⟺C has a 3-partition,

and every task time of FSFSFS satisfies tj,i≤2Bt_{j,i}\le 2Btj,i​≤2B. The second clause records that the instance's numbers are bounded by those of CCC, the reduction's contribution to "the problem size being measured as the sum of the length of the tasks".

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3 (p. 40). For a flow shop with m≥1m\ge 1m≥1 processors, every preemptive schedule SSS can be replaced by a schedule S′S'S′ with no preemptions on P1P_1P1​ and on PmP_mPm​ and FT(S′)=FT(S)FT(S')=FT(S)FT(S′)=FT(S).
  2. Lemma 4(a) (p. 41). If CCC has a 3-partition, FSFSFS has a non-preemptive schedule with FT≤2tBFT\le 2tBFT≤2tB.
  3. First step of Lemma 4(b) (pp. 41–42). In every preemptive schedule of FSFSFS with FT≤2tBFT\le 2tBFT≤2tB, the jobs among 1,…,s1,\dots,s1,…,s whose P1P_1P1​ task is completed by time 2B2B2B have ∑t1,i=B\sum t_{1,i}=B∑t1,i​=B.
  4. Lemma 4(b) (pp. 41–42). If CCC has no 3-partition, every preemptive schedule of FSFSFS has FT>2tBFT>2tBFT>2tB.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 places the preemptive three-machine flow shop among the strongly NP-hard scheduling problems, so no algorithm polynomial in the number of jobs and the total processing time exists unless P = NP. It also shows that allowing preemption, which makes several single-stage problems (such as P∣pmtn∣Cmax⁡P\mid pmtn\mid C_{\max}P∣pmtn∣Cmax​) easy, does not help for three-stage flow shops. Lemma 3, that preemptions on the first and last machines can be removed without changing the finish time, holds for any number of machines and is a reusable structural fact about flow-shop schedules.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper, and its proof of the "only if" direction is an informal busy-processor argument repeated window by window. As far as is known, no part of it has a machine-checked proof. A formal development has to make the interval accounting rigorous: why each processor is busy throughout [0,2tB][0,2tB][0,2tB], why exactly BBB units of element jobs end on P1P_1P1​ by 2B2B2B, and how the argument restarts on [2B,2tB][2B,2tB][2B,2tB]. Lemma 3 needs an exchange argument on piece representations. Both are new for the platform.

Difficulty

The direction "3-partition ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ schedule" is a direct construction. The hard direction is the converse. Preemption lets any task be split across many intervals, so the usual non-preemptive arguments, which reason about the order in which whole tasks run, do not apply directly. The paper's argument that the window [0,2B][0,2B][0,2B] must contain exactly three element jobs of total BBB on P1P_1P1​ depends on every processor being continuously busy, and turning "otherwise there is idle time" into a precise statement requires a careful account of which jobs are available to each processor at each moment. The induction on windows is then not a literal restriction of the schedule to a smaller instance, because pieces may cross the boundary at 2B2B2B.

Formalization scope

  • Times are real numbers; the 3-Partition data are natural numbers cast to R\mathbb RR. Processors are Fin m with P1=P_1=P1​= 0; in FSFSFS, P1,P2,P3P_1,P_2,P_3P1​,P2​,P3​ are 0, 1, 2.
  • The 3-Partition instance is the published ResourceScheduling.Chain.ThreePartition (0-based indices, t parts, b =B=B=B, Valid, HasSolution), whose definition is the paper's p. 37 problem.
  • Preemptive schedules are finite sets of pieces per task; precedence is required between every pair of tasks j<j′j<j'j<j′ of a job, so a zero task occupies no time and does not break the job's order. Finish time is a maximum over jobs with baseline 000, never an unattained supremum.
  • "No preemptions on PjP_jPj​" means at most one piece per task on PjP_jPj​.
  • Not formalized: "NP-complete", the reduction symbol ∝\propto∝, "the problem size being measured as the sum of the length of the tasks", and Lemma 2 (membership in NP). The goal states the equivalence Lemma 4 proves for the constructed instance, plus the bound tj,i≤2Bt_{j,i}\le 2Btj,i​≤2B on its task times.
  • Added hypothesis: t≥2t\ge 2t≥2. For t<2t<2t<2 the paper's job indices s+1s+1s+1 and s+ts+ts+t coincide with conflicting times, so the construction is undefined there.
  • The first step of Lemma 4(b) is read as: the sum of t1,it_{1,i}t1,i​ over element jobs whose P1P_1P1​ task has completed by time 2B2B2B equals BBB.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the schedules quantified over are all preemptive schedules of the specific instance FS(C)FS(C)FS(C), the threshold 2tB2tB2tB is explicit, and the validity conditions B/4<ai<B/2B/4<a_i<B/2B/4<ai​<B/2 are kept, so the schedule side cannot match the weaker "partition into ttt groups of sum BBB".

Contributions welcome: the interval-accounting lemmas (busy processors, work available before a time), Lemma 3's exchange argument, and the schedule of Figure 2.

Selected references

  • T. Gonzalez, S. Sahni, Flowshop and Jobshop Schedules: Complexity and Approximation, Operations Research 26(1):36–52, 1978. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.26.1.36
  • M. R. Garey, D. S. Johnson, R. Sethi, The Complexity of Flowshop and Jobshop Scheduling, Mathematics of Operations Research 1(2):117–129, 1976. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1.2.117
  • S. M. Johnson, Optimal two- and three-stage production schedules with setup times included, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 1(1):61–68, 1954. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800010110
  • M. R. Garey, D. S. Johnson, "Strong" NP-Completeness Results: Motivation, Examples, and Implications, Journal of the ACM 25(3):499–508, 1978. https://doi.org/10.1145/322077.322090
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Dynamic ProgrammingLinear OptimizationMarkov Chain+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Linear Programming and Finite Markovian Control Problems VII: Bias Optimality — Four Equivalent Characterizations of a Bias Optimal Pure Stationary PolicyTextbook

Why bias optimality matters

A finite Markov decision problem can have several policies with the same long-run average reward even though they behave differently before reaching a recurrent class. Average reward discards a finite initial advantage: dividing total reward by the horizon sends any fixed transient contribution to zero. In applications where the process runs for a long but unspecified time, this leaves a genuine choice among average-optimal policies. Bias optimality uses discounted values as the discount factor approaches one to resolve that choice. Kallenberg develops the criterion in Chapter 5 of Linear Programming and Finite Markovian Control Problems, following Blackwell's earlier notion of a nearly optimal policy.

The chapter asks for a way to recognize a bias optimal policy without comparing it directly with every possible sequence of history-dependent, randomized decisions. Its central characterization, Theorem 5.2.2, gives three tests involving only pure stationary policies. That change in the comparison class matters: there are finitely many pure stationary rules, while a general policy may depend on an unbounded history. The theorem also explains why average optimality alone leaves policies untied only at the gain level, while their bias vectors can differ. The two-state example in Figure 5.2.1 exhibits an average-optimal stationary rule that is not bias optimal (Kallenberg, pp. 163–164).

The finite decision model

The state space is E={1,…,N}E=\{1,\ldots,N\}E={1,…,N} with N>0N>0N>0. Each state iii has its own finite, nonempty set A(i)A(i)A(i) of admissible actions. Choosing a∈A(i)a\in A(i)a∈A(i) earns the real reward riar_{ia}ria​ immediately and moves to state jjj with probability piajp_{iaj}piaj​. The rows are stochastic: piaj≥0p_{iaj}\ge0piaj​≥0 and ∑jpiaj=1\sum_jp_{iaj}=1∑j​piaj​=1. This is the chapter's standing assumption, stated at the opening of §5.2 (Kallenberg, p. 162).

A policy R∈CR\in CR∈C assigns a probability distribution on the actions available at the current state after every finite history. Thus CCC includes randomized and history-dependent decisions. A pure stationary policy f∞∈CDf^\infty\in C_Df∞∈CD​ instead fixes one action f(i)∈A(i)f(i)\in A(i)f(i)∈A(i) for each state and uses it in every period. Time starts at t=1t=1t=1. From initial state iii, let vit(R)v_i^t(R)vit​(R) be expected reward in period ttt, and let viα(R)=∑t≥1αt−1vit(R)v_i^\alpha(R)=\sum_{t\ge1}\alpha^{t-1}v_i^t(R)viα​(R)=∑t≥1​αt−1vit​(R) be expected discounted reward for 0≤α<10\le\alpha<10≤α<1. The optimal discounted value viαv_i^\alphaviα​ is the supremum of viα(R)v_i^\alpha(R)viα​(R) over all R∈CR\in CR∈C, taken separately for each state.

The average reward is ϕi(R)=lim inf⁡T→∞T−1∑t=1Tvit(R)\phi_i(R)=\liminf_{T\to\infty}T^{-1}\sum_{t=1}^T v_i^t(R)ϕi​(R)=liminfT→∞​T−1∑t=1T​vit​(R); its optimal value ϕi\phi_iϕi​ is again the statewise supremum over CCC. The corresponding limsup is ϕ^i(R)\hat\phi_i(R)ϕ^​i​(R). A policy is average optimal when ϕi(R)=ϕi\phi_i(R)=\phi_iϕi​(R)=ϕi​ at every state. It is bias optimal when viα(R)−viα→0v_i^\alpha(R)-v_i^\alpha\to0viα​(R)−viα​→0 as α↑1\alpha\uparrow1α↑1 at every state (Kallenberg, pp. 21–23 and 161).

For a pure stationary fff, write P(f)ij=pi,f(i),jP(f)_{ij}=p_{i,f(i),j}P(f)ij​=pi,f(i),j​ and r(f)i=ri,f(i)r(f)_i=r_{i,f(i)}r(f)i​=ri,f(i)​. The stationary matrix P∗(f)P^*(f)P∗(f) is the Cesàro limit of the powers of P(f)P(f)P(f). The deviation matrix and bias vector are

D(f)=(I−P(f)+P∗(f))−1−P∗(f),u(f∞)=D(f)r(f).D(f)=\bigl(I-P(f)+P^*(f)\bigr)^{-1}-P^*(f), \qquad u(f^\infty)=D(f)r(f).D(f)=(I−P(f)+P∗(f))−1−P∗(f),u(f∞)=D(f)r(f).

The gain of f∞f^\inftyf∞ is ϕ(f∞)=P∗(f)r(f)\phi(f^\infty)=P^*(f)r(f)ϕ(f∞)=P∗(f)r(f). These are the book's Definitions 2.4.2 and notation (2.5.5), and their finite stochastic-matrix properties are recorded in Theorem 2.4.1 (Kallenberg, pp. 29 and 33–34).

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 5.2.2, for each pure stationary f∗∞f_*^\inftyf∗∞​. It asserts that the following are equivalent: (i) f∗∞f_*^\inftyf∗∞​ is bias optimal against the value over all CCC; (ii) for every f∞∈CDf^\infty\in C_Df∞∈CD​, the vector limit lim⁡α↑1(vα(f∗∞)−vα(f∞))\lim_{\alpha\uparrow1}\bigl(v^\alpha(f_*^\infty)-v^\alpha(f^\infty)\bigr)limα↑1​(vα(f∗∞​)−vα(f∞)) exists and is nonnegative; (iii) f∗∞f_*^\inftyf∗∞​ is average optimal and, at every state iii, its bias is maximal among pure stationary policies optimal at that state; and (iv) for every f∞∈CDf^\infty\in C_Df∞∈CD​, the vector limit

lim⁡T→∞1T∑t=1T∑s=1t(vs(f∗∞)−vs(f∞))≥0\lim_{T\to\infty}\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T\sum_{s=1}^t \bigl(v^s(f_*^\infty)-v^s(f^\infty)\bigr)\ge0T→∞lim​T1​t=1∑T​s=1∑t​(vs(f∗∞​)−vs(f∞))≥0

exists. These limits are read in the extended reals: a strictly positive gain gap makes a difference tend to +∞+\infty+∞, which satisfies the displayed inequality. The period rewards vsv^svs in the last formula are not discounted values. The printed clause (iii) has a typographical error in the set following max; its proof on p. 164 supplies the intended restriction ϕi(f∞)=ϕi\phi_i(f^\infty)=\phi_iϕi​(f∞)=ϕi​. The formal statement uses that reading and records it explicitly.

Two earlier chapter results are milestones. Lemma 5.2.1 bounds the Abel limsup (1−α)viα(R)(1-\alpha)v_i^\alpha(R)(1−α)viα​(R) by the upper average reward ϕ^i(R)\hat\phi_i(R)ϕ^​i​(R) for any policy. Theorem 5.2.1 says that bias optimality implies average optimality, with a two-state example showing that average optimality does not imply bias optimality. The later §5.3 linear-programming construction is a separate route to finding a bias optimal policy and is outside this mission's statement layer.

What the characterization gives

The equivalence allows bias optimality to be checked through discounted differences, bias vectors, or accumulated period rewards. Its bias-vector clause identifies the relevant comparison set: a policy can be optimal in average reward at one state without being optimal at every state, and that statewise distinction cannot be discarded. It also makes the bias criterion finer than average optimality, as the two-state counterexample shows (Kallenberg, pp. 163–165).

The source proves these results; the mission asks for machine-checked proofs of the stated equivalence and its two supporting results. The finite history and reward definitions can support later formalizations of Kallenberg's average-reward and constrained models. The matrix definitions can also be reused for results about finite Markov chains, including the Cesàro limit and deviation matrix. No machine-checked proof of this specific four-way characterization is claimed here.

Where the difficulty lies

Comparing average rewards alone loses the transient reward information that bias is designed to retain. The discounted comparison has an apparent divergence of order (1−α)−1(1-\alpha)^{-1}(1−α)−1 whenever two policies have different gains; the finite residual becomes meaningful only after those gain terms are separated. The accumulated-reward test also takes a second Cesàro average, so a direct identification with ordinary average reward would miss its bias contribution. The theorem has to preserve both the gain ordering and the finite bias remainder across these limiting regimes (Kallenberg, pp. 164–165).

For a general policy, the discounted value is defined by infinitely many history-dependent choices, whereas P∗P^*P∗ and DDD apply to one fixed stationary matrix. This is the obstacle in passing from clause (i), which compares with all CCC, to the tests against CDC_DCD​. Treating the optimal discounted value as a supremum over stationary policies by definition would erase that obstacle and change the theorem.

Formalization scope

Lean uses Fin N with N>0N>0N>0 for states and a finite action type with nonempty state-dependent admissible subsets. Rewards are real, transition rows are stochastic, and policies are distributions on actions after complete finite histories. The finite sum of products defining each history's probability supplies vit(R)v_i^t(R)vit​(R); no measure-theoretic path space is needed. Discounted rewards use a real infinite sum for α\alphaα near one from below. Average rewards are real liminf and limsup values of bounded sequences. Optimal values are statewise suprema over all admissible policies, not over just CDC_DCD​.

The matrix P∗P^*P∗ is a Cesàro limit and DDD uses the book's inverse formula. Their convergence and nonsingularity for finite stochastic matrices are mathematical obligations, not added assumptions of the goal. The T=0T=0T=0 value of a totalized average and the value of a discounted sum outside its summable range do not enter the limits. Contributions to the finite-chain limit facts, boundedness of reward criteria, the Abel/Cesàro comparison, and the four equivalences are all within scope. A formalization that restricts the optimum in bias optimality to pure stationary policies would not be this theorem.

Selected references

  • L. C. M. Kallenberg, Linear Programming and Finite Markovian Control Problems, Mathematical Centre Tracts 148, Mathematisch Centrum, Amsterdam, 1983. Publisher repository.
  • David Blackwell, “Discrete Dynamic Programming,” Annals of Mathematical Statistics 33 (1962), 719–726. DOI.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryComplexity TheoryLinear Optimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

The Polynomial Hierarchy and a Simple Model for Competitive Analysis: Every Optimum of the (p+1)-Level Linear Game J'(F) Is Binary, with x(F) = 1 iff the Σ_p Sentence (3.3) HoldsResearch Paper

Why multi-level programs are hard

Multi-level programs model a hierarchy of decision makers: a leader commits to a decision, a follower optimises given it, a follower of the follower optimises given both, and so on. Bilevel programs are the standard model of Stackelberg competition, toll setting, network interdiction and many other leader–follower problems in operations research (Candler and Townsley 1982; Bard and Falk 1982). When every level has a linear criterion and the constraints are linear, each player's problem looks like a linear program, and it is natural to hope that the whole hierarchy is solvable in polynomial time.

R. G. Jeroslow's 1985 paper (Math. Programming 32, 146–164) shows that this hope fails at every level of the polynomial hierarchy: a (p+1)(p+1)(p+1)-level linear program with fixed criteria can encode the truth of a Σp\Sigma_pΣp​ quantified Boolean sentence. The result places multi-level linear programming in the polynomial hierarchy and is widely cited for the Σp\Sigma_pΣp​-hardness of such programs; NP-hardness of bilevel linear programs (Corollary 4.6) is its special case p=1p=1p=1.

Setting

A multi-level program has real variables x=(x1,…,xp)x=(x^1,\dots,x^p)x=(x1,…,xp), a feasible set S0S_0S0​ (a polyhedron {x:∑iAixi≥b}\{x: \sum_i A^ix^i\ge b\}{x:∑i​Aixi≥b} in the linear case), and players p,p−1,…,1p,p-1,\dots,1p,p−1,…,1 who move in that order; player iii controls xix^ixi and minimises a fixed linear criterion cixc^ixcix. The solution sets are defined from the last mover upwards: S1S_1S1​ is the set of x∈S0x\in S_0x∈S0​ at which player 1's criterion is minimal given the choices of all earlier movers, and in general SjS_{j}Sj​ keeps the points of Sj−1S_{j-1}Sj−1​ minimising cjxc^jxcjx among the points of Sj−1S_{j-1}Sj−1​ that agree with xxx on xj+1,…,xpx^{j+1},\dots,x^pxj+1,…,xp. The value is cpxc^pxcpx on SpS_pSp​, when Sp≠∅S_p\neq\emptysetSp​=∅. The sets SjS_jSj​ can be empty even when S0S_0S0​ is a nonempty polytope: the paper's four-level Example has S4=∅S_4=\emptysetS4​=∅ because S3S_3S3​ is not closed.

A propositional formula FFF over blocks of atoms X1,…,XpX_1,\dots,X_pX1​,…,Xp​ (block XkX_kXk​ has nkn_knk​ atoms) is encoded by the linear system LFL_FLF​: one variable x(G)∈[0,1]x(G)\in[0,1]x(G)∈[0,1] per non-atomic subformula, with the inequalities (3.1a)–(3.1c) for ∨\vee∨, ∧\wedge∧, ¬\neg¬. The quantifier of block XkX_kXk​ is Qk=∃Q_k=\existsQk​=∃ when p−kp-kp−k is even, so

(∃Xp)(∀Xp−1)⋯(Q1X1) [F(X1,…,Xp)=1](3.3)(\exists X_p)(\forall X_{p-1})\cdots(Q_1X_1)\,[F(X_1,\dots,X_p)=1] \qquad (3.3)(∃Xp​)(∀Xp−1​)⋯(Q1​X1​)[F(X1​,…,Xp​)=1](3.3)

is a Σp\Sigma_pΣp​ sentence.

The game J′(F)J'(F)J′(F) adds a bookkeeper, player 000, who moves last. Player k≥1k\ge1k≥1 controls the atoms of XkX_kXk​, and player 111 also controls auxiliary variables yyy; the bookkeeper controls the x(G)x(G)x(G), a variable uuu fixed to 111, and auxiliary variables zzz. Two gadgets, (4.1) and (4.6), let the bookkeeper and player 1 turn the linear criteria into the piecewise-linear functions Zk=1−x(F)+2∑jP(xkj)Z_k=1-x(F)+2\sum_jP(x_{kj})Zk​=1−x(F)+2∑j​P(xkj​) (or x(F)+…x(F)+\dotsx(F)+… for universal QkQ_kQk​) and Z1=(1−x(F))+fr(1−x(F))+10L∑jfr(x1j)+…Z_1=(1-x(F))+fr(1-x(F))+10L\sum_j fr(x_{1j})+\dotsZ1​=(1−x(F))+fr(1−x(F))+10L∑j​fr(x1j​)+…, where LLL is the length of FFF, fr(x)=min⁡{x,1−x}fr(x)=\min\{x,1-x\}fr(x)=min{x,1−x}, and P(x)=1P(x)=1P(x)=1 at x∈{0,1}x\in\{0,1\}x∈{0,1}, 222 otherwise.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.5 (p≥2p\ge2p≥2)

Let SSS be the set of optimal solutions Sp+1S_{p+1}Sp+1​ of J′(F)J'(F)J′(F). Then S≠∅S\neq\emptysetS=∅; at every optimum all atom variables and all x(G)x(G)x(G) are binary; and

x(F)=1  ⟺  (3.3) holds,value(J′(F))=2np+1−x(F).x(F)=1 \iff (3.3)\ \text{holds},\qquad \text{value}(J'(F)) = 2n_p+1-x(F).x(F)=1⟺(3.3) holds,value(J′(F))=2np​+1−x(F).

Moreover, when (3.3) holds, v∈Rnpv\in\mathbb R^{n_p}v∈Rnp​ is player ppp's block in some optimum iff vvv is binary and the Πp−1\Pi_{p-1}Πp−1​ sentence (4.17) holds at the truth valuation of vvv.

Milestones

In attack order: Lemma 3.1 (correctness of LFL_FLF​ on binary inputs); Lemma 4.1 (robustness of LFL_FLF​ near binary inputs); Lemmas 4.2 and 4.3 (the bottom two levels of a bounded linear multi-level program are solvable, via LP duality); the bookkeeper identities z=∣2y−x∣z=|2y-x|z=∣2y−x∣ and z=fr(x)z=fr(x)z=fr(x) in S1S_1S1​; (4.2) and (4.3) (player 1's and player kkk's responses on the gadgets); Lemma 4.4 (the induction on kkk with the higher blocks fixed). Companion theorems: Corollary 4.6 (the bilevel case: value 000 iff (∃X1)F(\exists X_1)F(∃X1​)F), the §2 Example, and Proposition 3.2 (the pure binary game J(F)J(F)J(F)).

Significance

The theorem shows that deciding the value of a (p+1)(p+1)(p+1)-level linear program with fixed criteria is at least as hard as deciding Σp\Sigma_pΣp​ sentences, so known exact algorithms for multi-level linear programs cannot be expected to run in polynomial time once p≥2p\ge2p≥2, and even recognising an optimal move is Πp−1\Pi_{p-1}Πp−1​-hard. The bilevel case is an early NP-hardness proof for bilevel linear programming, and the construction (a bookkeeper player and absolute-value gadgets that force binary choices) is a template for hardness reductions to leader–follower problems.

The result is proved in the paper but, to our knowledge, has no machine-checked formalization. A formal development makes precise the solution concept (conditional rather than lexicographic minimisation), which the literature states in several inequivalent ways, and checks a proof whose printed version leaves cases to the reader (the ∧\wedge∧, ¬\neg¬ cases of Lemma 4.1, the universal cases of Lemma 4.4) and applies Lemma 4.3 to a feasible set that is unbounded (the (4.1) variable zzz has no upper bound).

Difficulty

The obvious argument, "each existential player picks a satisfying assignment and each universal player a counterexample", works for the pure binary game J(F)J(F)J(F) (Proposition 3.2) but not for continuous variables: a player may choose fractional values, and the solution sets of a multi-level program need not exist (the §2 Example). The work is in showing that every player is forced to binary choices. Player 1's fractional choices are ruled out only through the robustness estimate of Lemma 4.1 with the weight 10L10L10L, and the existence of optimal solutions at every level has to be established along the induction, since it fails for general three-level programs.

Formalization scope

  • Players are indexed from 000; player iii optimises at level i+1i+1i+1. In J′(F)J'(F)J′(F) the players are 0,…,p0,\dots,p0,…,p as in the paper; in the §2 Example and in J(F)J(F)J(F) the paper's player iii is index i−1i-1i−1. Blocks are 0-based: block k : Fin p is the paper's Xk+1X_{k+1}Xk+1​, owned by player k+1k+1k+1 in J′(F)J'(F)J′(F).
  • solSet encodes the conditional minimisation of (3.7), p. 152. HasValue N w requires SN≠∅S_N\neq\emptysetSN​=∅; the value +∞+\infty+∞ is not modelled.
  • Formulas use ¬,∧,∨\neg,\wedge,\vee¬,∧,∨ (the paper rewrites →\to→ as ¬G1∨G2\neg G_1\vee G_2¬G1​∨G2​); the length counts atoms and connectives. Data are real; the paper's rationality assumption plays no role in the statements.
  • The bookkeeper controls the x(G)x(G)x(G) and has criterion "+z+z+z on (4.1) gadgets, −z-z−z on (4.6) gadgets, and +x(G)+x(G)+x(G) for each non-atomic subformula," as stated on p. 155. The (4.1) variable zzz has no upper bound. The constant 111 of (4.4)/(4.7) is the variable uuu with u=1u=1u=1.
  • "Binary value, zero iff F∈BpF\in B_pF∈Bp​" is stated exactly: the value is 2np+1−x(F)2n_p+1-x(F)2np​+1−x(F), and x(F)=1x(F)=1x(F)=1 iff (3.3). "All optimal solutions are binary" covers the atom variables and the x(G)x(G)x(G), not the gadget variable zzz, which equals 222 at y=1y=1y=1, ξ=0\xi=0ξ=0.
  • The goal is not trivialisable: its first conjunct asserts that the optimal set is nonempty, which fails for general multi-level programs (the §2 Example), so the remaining conjuncts are not vacuous.

A complete development needs a linear-programming duality argument for Lemma 4.2 (Mathlib has IsExtreme and Set.extremePoints; LP duality is on the platform as a single-level theorem) and an induction over the levels of the game. The definitions MultilevelProgram, solSet and the formula encoding LSys are reusable for other complexity results on hierarchical optimisation. Proofs of any milestone, including the generic Lemmas 4.2–4.3 and the formula Lemmas 3.1 and 4.1, are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • R. G. Jeroslow, The polynomial hierarchy and a simple model for competitive analysis, Mathematical Programming 32 (1985) 146–164. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01586088
  • W. Candler and R. Townsley, A linear two-level programming problem, Computers & Operations Research 9 (1982) 59–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-0548(82)90006-5
  • J. F. Bard and J. E. Falk, An explicit solution to the multi-level programming problem, Computers & Operations Research 9 (1982) 77–100. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-0548(82)90007-7
  • L. J. Stockmeyer, The polynomial-time hierarchy, Theoretical Computer Science 3 (1976) 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3975(76)90061-X
13 thms2 active usersReviewed
Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Shock Models and Wear Processes III: The First Passage Time of a Nondecreasing Markov Wear Process Above a Fixed Level Has an IHRA DistributionResearch Paper

Motivation

Reliability theory classifies life distributions by how they age. A device whose failure rate tends to increase over time is "wearing out", and the class of distributions with increasing hazard rate average (IHRA) is the one that is closed under forming coherent systems of independent components (Birnbaum, Esary and Marshall, 1966). This makes IHRA the natural ageing class for systems. It also raises a question: which physical failure mechanisms produce IHRA lives?

Esary, Marshall and Proschan's paper Shock Models and Wear Processes (Ann. Probability 1, 1973) answers this for two kinds of mechanism. In the first, damage arrives in discrete amounts at the epochs of a Poisson process of shocks. In the second, damage accumulates continuously. In both, the device fails when the accumulated damage first exceeds a fixed capacity. This mission covers the second kind: a wear process {Z(t),t≥0}\{Z(t), t \ge 0\}{Z(t),t≥0} and its first passage time above a level. The paper shows that the first passage time is IHRA under three qualitative conditions: wear starts at zero and only grows, the process is Markov, and accumulated wear and age make further wear more likely. Nothing else is assumed about the law of the wear.

A short timeline. Birnbaum, Esary and Marshall (1966) introduced the IHRA class and proved it is closed under coherent systems. Morey (1965) studied first passage times of wear processes under an extra monotonicity assumption. Esary, Marshall and Proschan (1973), §4, proved the IHRA property first for Poisson shocks with i.i.d. damages (Corollary 4.2, (4.7)), then for dependent damages (Lemma 4.1b, (4.7b)), and finally for continuous wear (Theorem 4.10).

Setting

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal F, P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space. "Decreasing" means non-increasing throughout.

A survival function Fˉ\bar FFˉ is IHRA if t↦[Fˉ(t)]1/tt \mapsto [\bar F(t)]^{1/t}t↦[Fˉ(t)]1/t is decreasing on t>0t > 0t>0 (p. 631). For an exponential life, [Fˉ(t)]1/t[\bar F(t)]^{1/t}[Fˉ(t)]1/t is constant. IHRA says the average failure rate over [0,t][0, t][0,t] never decreases.

Dependent damages. Let X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \dotsX1​,X2​,… be nonnegative random variables, the damages caused by successive shocks, and let Z0=0Z_0 = 0Z0​=0 and Zk=X1+⋯+XkZ_k = X_1 + \dots + X_kZk​=X1​+⋯+Xk​. The paper's conditions (p. 636) are:

  • (4.3) the conditional law of XkX_kXk​ given X1,…,Xk−1X_1, \dots, X_{k-1}X1​,…,Xk−1​ depends only on Zk−1Z_{k-1}Zk−1​;
  • (4.4) P{Xk≤u∣Zk−1=z}P\{X_k \le u \mid Z_{k-1} = z\}P{Xk​≤u∣Zk−1​=z} is decreasing in z≥0z \ge 0z≥0 (accumulated damage lowers resistance);
  • (4.5) P{Xk≤u∣Zk−1=z}≥P{Xk+1≤u∣Zk=z}P\{X_k \le u \mid Z_{k-1} = z\} \ge P\{X_{k+1} \le u \mid Z_k = z\}P{Xk​≤u∣Zk−1​=z}≥P{Xk+1​≤u∣Zk​=z} for z≥0z \ge 0z≥0 (later shocks are more severe).

Wear process. Z(t)Z(t)Z(t) is the wear accumulated in [0,t][0, t][0,t]. The conditions (pp. 640–641) are:

  • (4.8) Z(0)=0Z(0) = 0Z(0)=0 and Z(t+Δ)−Z(t)≥0Z(t + \Delta) - Z(t) \ge 0Z(t+Δ)−Z(t)≥0 for all t,Δ≥0t, \Delta \ge 0t,Δ≥0, with probability one;
  • (4.9) {Z(t),t≥0}\{Z(t), t \ge 0\}{Z(t),t≥0} is a Markov process;
  • (4.10) P{Z(t+Δ)−Z(t)≤u∣Z(t)=z}P\{Z(t + \Delta) - Z(t) \le u \mid Z(t) = z\}P{Z(t+Δ)−Z(t)≤u∣Z(t)=z} is decreasing in both zzz and ttt in the region t≥0t \ge 0t≥0, z≥0z \ge 0z≥0, Δ≥0\Delta \ge 0Δ≥0.

The first passage time above a level xxx is Tx=inf⁡{t:Z(t)>x}T_x = \inf\{t : Z(t) > x\}Tx​=inf{t:Z(t)>x}. Its survival function is Hˉx(t)=P{Tx>t}\bar H_x(t) = P\{T_x > t\}Hˉx​(t)=P{Tx​>t}, and Ft(x)=P{Z(t)≤x}F_t(x) = P\{Z(t) \le x\}Ft​(x)=P{Z(t)≤x} is the distribution function of the wear at time ttt.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.10 (p. 641)

If {Z(t),t≥0}\{Z(t), t \ge 0\}{Z(t),t≥0} satisfies (4.8), (4.9) and (4.10), then for every level xxx

t⟼[Hˉx(t)]1/t is decreasing on t>0,t \longmapsto \big[\bar H_x(t)\big]^{1/t} \text{ is decreasing on } t > 0,t⟼[Hˉx​(t)]1/t is decreasing on t>0,

that is, TxT_xTx​ has an IHRA distribution.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.1b (p. 637): under (4.3)–(4.5), [P{X1+⋯+Xk≤x}]1/k[P\{X_1 + \dots + X_k \le x\}]^{1/k}[P{X1​+⋯+Xk​≤x}]1/k is decreasing in k=1,2,…k = 1, 2, \dotsk=1,2,….
  2. Proof of Theorem 4.10, first claim (a): for Δ>0\Delta > 0Δ>0, the grid increments Xi=Z(iΔ)−Z((i−1)Δ)X_i = Z(i\Delta) - Z((i-1)\Delta)Xi​=Z(iΔ)−Z((i−1)Δ) satisfy (4.3)–(4.5).
  3. Proof of Theorem 4.10, first claim (b): [FkΔ(x)]1/(kΔ)[F_{k\Delta}(x)]^{1/(k\Delta)}[FkΔ​(x)]1/(kΔ) is decreasing in k=1,2,…k = 1, 2, \dotsk=1,2,….
  4. Proof of Theorem 4.10, second claim: [Fs(x)]1/s≥[Ft(x)]1/t[F_s(x)]^{1/s} \ge [F_t(x)]^{1/t}[Fs​(x)]1/s≥[Ft​(x)]1/t whenever 0<s≤t0 < s \le t0<s≤t.
  5. Proof of Theorem 4.10, third claim: Hˉx(t)=lim⁡ε↓0Ft+ε(x)\bar H_x(t) = \lim_{\varepsilon \downarrow 0} F_{t+\varepsilon}(x)Hˉx​(t)=limε↓0​Ft+ε​(x), under (4.8) alone.

An optional extra item states Corollary 4.2 (4.7b): Poisson shocks of rate λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 with damages satisfying (4.3)–(4.5) give an IHRA life Hˉ(t)=∑ke−λt(λt)k/k!⋅P{Zk≤x}\bar H(t) = \sum_k e^{-\lambda t} (\lambda t)^k / k! \cdot P\{Z_k \le x\}Hˉ(t)=∑k​e−λt(λt)k/k!⋅P{Zk​≤x}.

Significance

The result. Theorem 4.10 derives an ageing property of a failure time from qualitative properties of the damage process alone: no distributional form, no stationarity and no independence of increments is assumed. Together with the closure of IHRA under coherent systems, this lets a reliability engineer conclude that a system built from components failing by wear has an IHRA life. Examples include processes with nonnegative stationary independent increments started at the origin, such as compound Poisson processes and infinitesimal renewal processes (p. 641). Lemma 4.1b is the discrete analogue: a sequence of probabilities Pˉk\bar P_kPˉk​ with Pˉk1/k\bar P_k^{1/k}Pˉk1/k​ decreasing is what Theorem 3.1 (3.4) needs to give an IHRA life under Poisson shocks.

Formalizing it. The results are proved in the paper. As far as we know none of them has been machine-checked. The formalization needs, and would make reusable, a statement of the Markov property for a continuous-time real process in terms of Mathlib's conditional expectation, versions of conditional distributions with monotonicity constraints, and the passage from a discrete-time grid to continuous time for first passage times. Each of these is a step a probabilist writes in one line and a proof assistant does not.

Difficulty

The paper's proof is short, but every sentence hides a measure-theoretic step. The first claim, that the grid increments satisfy (4.3)–(4.5), requires turning the Markov property and the monotonicity of the increment law into conditional laws of Xk+1X_{k+1}Xk+1​ given (X1,…,Xk)(X_1, \dots, X_k)(X1​,…,Xk​). Those conditional laws are defined only almost everywhere, and the monotonicity must be preserved along the way. Lemma 4.1b itself is an induction that integrates the monotonicity conditions against the law of ZkZ_kZk​. The extension from rational to arbitrary ratios s/ts/ts/t uses the monotonicity of paths. The identification of Hˉx(t)\bar H_x(t)Hˉx​(t) as a right limit of Ft+ε(x)F_{t+\varepsilon}(x)Ft+ε​(x) needs the pathwise reading of (4.8). The natural first idea, approximating ZZZ by a compound Poisson process, would add hypotheses the theorem does not have.

Formalization scope

All objects sit in the namespace ShockWear.WearProcess, in one definition file. The committed conventions:

  • Probability space. A measure pr with IsProbabilityMeasure. Time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge 0}R≥0​; Z:R≥0→Ω→RZ : \mathbb R_{\ge0} \to \Omega \to \mathbb RZ:R≥0​→Ω→R with every Z(t)Z(t)Z(t) measurable.
  • (4.8) is read pathwise. Almost every path has Z(0)=0Z(0) = 0Z(0)=0 and is nondecreasing. The paper's "for all t,Δ≥0t, \Delta \ge 0t,Δ≥0 with probability one" is ambiguous in quantifier order; this reading is the one used by the proof's equivalence "Tx>tT_x > tTx​>t iff Z(t+ε)≤xZ(t+\varepsilon) \le xZ(t+ε)≤x for some ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0".
  • (4.9) is the Markov property for the natural filtration σ(Z(r),r≤s)\sigma(Z(r), r \le s)σ(Z(r),r≤s): P(Z(t)∈B∣Fs)=P(Z(t)∈B∣Z(s))P(Z(t) \in B \mid \mathcal F_s) = P(Z(t) \in B \mid Z(s))P(Z(t)∈B∣Fs​)=P(Z(t)∈B∣Z(s)) a.s. for s≤ts \le ts≤t and Borel BBB.
  • Conditional probabilities are explicit versions. P{Xk+1≤u∣Zk=z}P\{X_{k+1} \le u \mid Z_k = z\}P{Xk+1​≤u∣Zk​=z} and P{Z(t+Δ)−Z(t)≤u∣Z(t)=z}P\{Z(t+\Delta) - Z(t) \le u \mid Z(t) = z\}P{Z(t+Δ)−Z(t)≤u∣Z(t)=z} are the values on (−∞,u](-\infty, u](−∞,u] of Markov kernels κ\kappaκ that agree almost everywhere with Mathlib's condDistrib. The monotonicity conditions (4.4), (4.5), (4.10) are imposed on these versions, on the paper's regions z≥0z \ge 0z≥0, t≥0t \ge 0t≥0. "Is decreasing in zzz" is read as "has a version decreasing in zzz".
  • Nonnegativity of damages is almost sure.
  • Index base. Lean's X i is the paper's Xi+1X_{i+1}Xi+1​, and the kernel κ k describes Xk+1X_{k+1}Xk+1​ given ZkZ_kZk​.
  • First passage time TxT_xTx​ takes values in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞] and may be infinite with positive probability; it is not assumed finite. Hˉx(t)=1\bar H_x(t) = 1Hˉx​(t)=1 for t<0t < 0t<0. The level xxx ranges over all reals.
  • Powers [ ⋅ ]1/t[\,\cdot\,]^{1/t}[⋅]1/t, [ ⋅ ]1/k[\,\cdot\,]^{1/k}[⋅]1/k, [ ⋅ ]1/(kΔ)[\,\cdot\,]^{1/(k\Delta)}[⋅]1/(kΔ) are real powers with real exponents.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: (4.9) and (4.10) are not replaced by independence or stationarity of increments, nor by a compound Poisson model. Those are examples (p. 641), not hypotheses. Monotonicity is never imposed on Mathlib's condDistrib itself, whose values off the support of Z(t)Z(t)Z(t) are unconstrained. A sorry-free local check confirms the hypotheses are satisfiable: the deterministic process Z(t)=tZ(t) = tZ(t)=t satisfies (4.8)–(4.10), and constant damages satisfy (4.3)–(4.5).

Contributions are welcome on any milestone. The reduction (milestone 2) and the induction of Lemma 4.1b are the substantial parts. Lemmas about versions of conditional distributions under Markov processes would be reusable well beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • J. D. Esary, A. W. Marshall and F. Proschan, Shock Models and Wear Processes, Ann. Probability 1(4) (1973) 627–649. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996891
  • Z. W. Birnbaum, J. D. Esary and A. W. Marshall, A Stochastic Characterization of Wear-out for Components and Systems, Ann. Math. Statist. 37 (1966) 816–825. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699362
  • R. C. Morey, Stochastic Wear Processes, Technical Report ORC 65-16, Operations Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, 1965 (cited on p. 640 of Esary, Marshall and Proschan).
  • R. E. Barlow and F. Proschan, Statistical Theory of Reliability and Life Testing, Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1975.
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Dynamic ProgrammingLinear OptimizationMarkov Chain+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Linear Programming and Markov Decision Chains 3: The Representative of a Pure Stationary Policy Is an Extreme Point of the Dual LPResearch Paper

Linear programs for average-reward Markov decision chains

A Markov decision chain is a controlled Markov chain: in each state the controller picks an action, collects a reward and moves to a random next state with probabilities that depend on the state and the action. Under the average reward criterion, the long-run reward per step, an optimal policy can be computed by linear programming. For chains in which every stationary policy has a single recurrent class (the unichain case) this goes back to Manne (1960), de Ghellinck (1960) and d'Epenoux (1960): the variables of the dual linear program are long-run state–action frequencies, and the vertices of its feasible set are exactly the pure stationary policies.

In the general multichain case a policy may split the state space into several recurrent classes with transient states between them, and the frequency picture breaks down. Denardo and Fox (1968) and Denardo (1970) gave linear programs that require solving several programs in sequence. Hordijk and Kallenberg (Management Science 25(4), 1979) showed that one pair of dual linear programs suffices: from an optimal dual solution one reads off an average optimal policy (their Theorems 7 and 8). To make the correspondence between policies and dual solutions explicit, they attach to every stationary policy a representative, a particular feasible solution of the dual program, and prove (Theorem 10) that the representative of a pure stationary policy is a vertex of the feasible set. This mission formalizes Theorem 10.

Timeline:

  • 1960: Manne; de Ghellinck; d'Epenoux. The linear program for unichain average-reward problems, with pure policies at the vertices.
  • 1962: Blackwell. The limit matrix P∗P^*P∗ and deviation matrix DDD of a finite stochastic matrix, and their identities (Ann. Math. Statist. 33).
  • 1968–1970: Denardo and Fox; Denardo. Multichain problems by a sequence of linear programs.
  • 1979: Hordijk and Kallenberg. A single dual pair for the multichain case; representatives of stationary policies; Theorem 10.

Setting

The state space EEE is finite. Each state iii has a finite nonempty set A(i)A(i)A(i) of actions; action aaa in state iii earns riar_{ia}ria​ and moves to jjj with probability piaj≥0p_{iaj}\ge 0piaj​≥0, ∑jpiaj=1\sum_j p_{iaj}=1∑j​piaj​=1. Fix weights βj>0\beta_j>0βj​>0 with ∑jβj=1\sum_j\beta_j=1∑j​βj​=1.

The dual linear program has one pair of variables xia,yiax_{ia},y_{ia}xia​,yia​ for each state iii and each admissible action a∈A(i)a\in A(i)a∈A(i). Its feasible set consists of the (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) with

∑i∑a(δij−piaj)xia=0,∑axja+∑i∑a(δij−piaj)yia=βj(j∈E),x,y≥0.\textstyle\sum_i\sum_a(\delta_{ij}-p_{iaj})x_{ia}=0,\qquad \sum_a x_{ja}+\sum_i\sum_a(\delta_{ij}-p_{iaj})y_{ia}=\beta_j\qquad(j\in E),\qquad x,y\ge 0 .∑i​∑a​(δij​−piaj​)xia​=0,∑a​xja​+∑i​∑a​(δij​−piaj​)yia​=βj​(j∈E),x,y≥0.

A pure stationary policy f∞f^\inftyf∞ uses the action f(i)∈A(i)f(i)\in A(i)f(i)∈A(i) whenever the chain is in state iii. Its transition matrix is P(f)=(pif(i)j)P(f)=(p_{if(i)j})P(f)=(pif(i)j​). For a stochastic matrix PPP, the limit matrix P∗=lim⁡n1n∑k=1nPk−1P^*=\lim_n\frac1n\sum_{k=1}^nP^{k-1}P∗=limn​n1​∑k=1n​Pk−1 exists, and the deviation matrix is D=(I−P+P∗)−1−P∗D=(I-P+P^*)^{-1}-P^*D=(I−P+P∗)−1−P∗. A state is recurrent if every state reachable from it can reach it back, and transient otherwise; the set TTT collects the transient states, and the states reachable from a recurrent state form an ergodic set. Write E1,…,EmE_1,\dots,E_mE1​,…,Em​ for the ergodic sets of P(f)P(f)P(f).

The representative of f∞f^\inftyf∞ is

xia(f)=[βTP∗(f)]i δaf(i),yia(f)=[βTD(f)+γTP∗(f)]i δaf(i),x_{ia}(f)=[\beta^TP^*(f)]_i\,\delta_{af(i)},\qquad y_{ia}(f)=[\beta^TD(f)+\gamma^TP^*(f)]_i\,\delta_{af(i)},xia​(f)=[βTP∗(f)]i​δaf(i)​,yia​(f)=[βTD(f)+γTP∗(f)]i​δaf(i)​,

with γl=0\gamma_l=0γl​=0 for l∈Tl\in Tl∈T and, for l∈Ejl\in E_jl∈Ej​, γl=max⁡i∈Ej(−∑kβkdki)/∑k∈Ejpki∗\gamma_l=\max_{i\in E_j}\big(-\sum_k\beta_kd_{ki}\big)\big/\sum_{k\in E_j}p^*_{ki}γl​=maxi∈Ej​​(−∑k​βk​dki​)/∑k∈Ej​​pki∗​. The paper defines the same formulas for randomized stationary policies π\piπ, with πia\pi_{ia}πia​ in place of δaf(i)\delta_{af(i)}δaf(i)​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10 (p. 361)

(x(f),y(f)) is an extreme point of the feasible set of the dual linear program(x(f),y(f))\ \text{is an extreme point of the feasible set of the dual linear program}(x(f),y(f)) is an extreme point of the feasible set of the dual linear program

for every finite Markov decision chain, every positive probability vector β\betaβ and every pure stationary policy f∞f^\inftyf∞. The statement contains feasibility of the representative.

Milestones

  1. §3.3, pp. 359–360: the representative (x(π),y(π))(x(\pi),y(\pi))(x(π),y(π)) of any stationary policy is feasible.
  2. Proof of Theorem 10, p. 362: for a stochastic PPP, every solution of xT(I−P)=0x^T(I-P)=0xT(I−P)=0, xT+yT(I−P)=βTx^T+y^T(I-P)=\beta^TxT+yT(I−P)=βT (system (7)) satisfies xT=βTP∗x^T=\beta^TP^*xT=βTP∗ and yT=βTD+yTP∗y^T=\beta^TD+y^TP^*yT=βTD+yTP∗.
  3. Proof of Theorem 10, p. 362: such a solution has yi=(βTD)iy_i=(\beta^TD)_iyi​=(βTD)i​ for i∈Ti\in Ti∈T.
  4. Proof of Theorem 10, p. 362: on each ergodic set EkE_kEk​ of P(f)P(f)P(f) there is a state i(k)i(k)i(k) with yi(k)f(i(k))(f)=0y_{i(k)f(i(k))}(f)=0yi(k)f(i(k))​(f)=0.
  5. Proof of Theorem 10, p. 362 (Chung, p. 33): a row vector zzz with zi=∑l∈Ekzlpliz_i=\sum_{l\in E_k}z_lp_{li}zi​=∑l∈Ek​​zl​pli​ on an ergodic set EkE_kEk​ that vanishes at one state of EkE_kEk​ vanishes on all of EkE_kEk​.

Significance

Theorem 10 is the vertex half of the policy–solution correspondence of Hordijk and Kallenberg: every pure stationary policy appears as a basic feasible solution of one linear program, in the multichain case and without any communication assumption. It connects the simplex method on that program with the set of pure policies, and it is a building block for the later literature on linear programming for multichain Markov decision problems. The paper also records that the converse fails: an extreme point may induce a randomized policy.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as is known it has not been machine-checked. A formal proof also checks the exact form of γ\gammaγ: the paper prints the denominator of γl\gamma_lγl​ as ∑kpki∗\sum_k p^*_{ki}∑k​pki∗​, a sum over all states, and with that reading the representative is not feasible as soon as transient states feed an ergodic set (two states, 0→1→10\to1\to10→1→1: y1=−β0/2y_1=-\beta_0/2y1​=−β0​/2). The denominator ∑k∈Ejpki∗\sum_{k\in E_j}p^*_{ki}∑k∈Ej​​pki∗​ is the one the paper's own feasibility computation on p. 360 uses, and it is the one stated here.

Difficulty

Feasibility is a calculation with the identities PP∗=P∗P=P∗P∗=P∗PP^*=P^*P=P^*P^*=P^*PP∗=P∗P=P∗P∗=P∗ and (I−P)D=I−P∗(I-P)D=I-P^*(I−P)D=I−P∗. Extremality is the substance. Restricted to the pairs (i,f(i))(i,f(i))(i,f(i)), the constraints become the square system (7) in the state variables, and system (7) determines xxx and the transient part of yyy, but on each ergodic set it determines yyy only up to adding a multiple of the stationary distribution of that class: the matrix I−PI-PI−P is singular, with one degree of freedom per ergodic set. The naive argument, that the equality constraints alone pin the point down, therefore fails as soon as there is an ergodic set; the extra information has to come from the nonnegativity constraints, and that is why the exact value of γ\gammaγ matters. In the general multichain setting this requires the class structure of a finite Markov chain (closed classes, transient states, the support of P∗P^*P∗, uniqueness of invariant vectors on a closed communicating class), little of which is in Mathlib in usable form.

Formalization scope

  • The model is the published MarkovDecisionProcesses.StationaryMDP: finite states, finite actions, admissible sets A(i)A(i)A(i) (nonempty), transition probabilities nonnegative with unit row sums. P∗P^*P∗ and DDD are the published limitMatrix and deviationMatrix of Blackwell's Lemma 1, whose identities are the open platform theorems BlackwellDiscreteDP.NearOne.lemma_1a and lemma_1d.
  • The dual variables are functions on the subtype of admissible state–action pairs, so non-admissible actions have no coordinates. The feasible set is a subset of (Pair→R)×(Pair→R)(\mathrm{Pair}\to\mathbb R)\times(\mathrm{Pair}\to\mathbb R)(Pair→R)×(Pair→R) and "extreme point" is Mathlib's Set.extremePoints ℝ. Membership in it includes feasibility.
  • Row vectors act by vecMul. Recurrence and accessibility are the published IsRecurrent and Accessible; the ergodic set of a recurrent lll is the set of states accessible from lll. The maximum in γ\gammaγ is a Finset.sup' over that finite nonempty set.
  • γ\gammaγ uses the corrected denominator ∑k∈Ejpki∗\sum_{k\in E_j}p^*_{ki}∑k∈Ej​​pki∗​. A formalization with γ=0\gamma=0γ=0, or one in which the non-admissible coordinates of the program are free, is a different and false or trivial statement and is ruled out.
  • Stationary randomized rules are nonnegative weights on A(i)A(i)A(i) summing to one; the pure rule of fff is the indicator of f(i)f(i)f(i).
  • Useful contributions: the class decomposition of a finite stochastic matrix (closed classes, pki∗=0p^*_{ki}=0pki∗​=0 for transient iii, positivity of pii∗p^*_{ii}pii∗​ on recurrent states), uniqueness of invariant vectors on a closed communicating class, and proofs of Blackwell's Lemma 1(a), 1(d). All of these are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • A. Hordijk and L. C. M. Kallenberg, Linear Programming and Markov Decision Chains, Management Science 25(4):352–362, 1979. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.25.4.352
  • D. Blackwell, Discrete Dynamic Programming, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 33(2):719–726, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177704593
  • K. L. Chung, Markov Chains with Stationary Transition Probabilities, Springer, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-49686-8
  • E. V. Denardo, On Linear Programming in a Markov Decision Problem, Management Science 16(5):281–288, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.16.5.281
  • E. V. Denardo and B. L. Fox, Multichain Markov Renewal Programs, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 16(3):468–487, 1968. https://doi.org/10.1137/0116038
  • A. S. Manne, Linear Programming and Sequential Decisions, Management Science 6(3):259–267, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.3.259
9 thms2 active usersReviewed
Convex OptimizationLinear OptimizationOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

The Ellipsoid Method and Its Consequences in Combinatorial Optimization: With a Weak Separation Oracle, the Rounded Ellipsoid Method Is ε-Optimal After N = 4n²⌈log(2R²‖c‖/(rε))⌉ StepsResearch Paper

Motivation

The ellipsoid method decides questions about a convex set K⊆RnK \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nK⊆Rn by maintaining an ellipsoid that contains the relevant part of KKK and shrinking it step by step. Introduced for convex minimization by Yudin and Nemirovskii and by Shor in the 1970s, it became famous in 1979 when Khachiyan used it to show that linear programming is solvable in polynomial time. Grötschel, Lovász and Schrijver (Combinatorica 1 (1981)) observed that the method never needs an explicit description of KKK: it only needs, for a query point yyy, either a confirmation that yyy is (nearly) in KKK or a hyperplane (nearly) separating yyy from KKK. From this they derived that optimization and separation are polynomially equivalent for convex bodies, which in turn gives polynomial algorithms for problems with exponentially many constraints: matroid intersection, submodular function minimization, and the stable set problem in perfect graphs.

The engine of all of these applications is a single quantitative statement, Theorem (2.4) of the paper: with a weak separation oracle and with all numbers rounded to a fixed number of binary digits, a prescribed number NNN of ellipsoid steps produces an ε\varepsilonε-optimal point.

Timeline. 1976–1977: Yudin–Nemirovskii and Shor, the method for convex programming. 1979: Khachiyan, polynomial-time linear programming. 1981: Gács–Lovász publish a complete proof of Khachiyan's result with the explicit rounded update; Grötschel–Lovász–Schrijver state and prove the weak-oracle version, Theorem (2.4), and its combinatorial consequences; Bland–Goldfarb–Todd survey the method (Oper. Res. 29 (1981)). 1988: the monograph of Grötschel, Lovász and Schrijver (Springer) gives the full theory of weak oracles.

Setting

All norms are Euclidean: ∥v∥=vTv\|v\| = \sqrt{v^{\mathsf T}v}∥v∥=vTv​, and for a symmetric matrix ∥A∥\|A\|∥A∥ is the largest absolute eigenvalue. S(a0,ρ)S(a_0,\rho)S(a0​,ρ) is the closed Euclidean ball of radius ρ\rhoρ about a0a_0a0​, and S(K,δ)S(K,\delta)S(K,δ) the set of points within distance δ\deltaδ of KKK.

A convex body (K,a0,r,R)(K, a_0, r, R)(K,a0​,r,R) consists of a compact convex K⊆RnK\subseteq\mathbb{R}^nK⊆Rn, n≥2n\ge 2n≥2, and 0<r≤R0<r\le R0<r≤R with

S(a0,r)⊆K⊆S(a0,R).S(a_0,r)\subseteq K\subseteq S(a_0,R).S(a0​,r)⊆K⊆S(a0​,R).

A weak separation oracle with precision δ>0\delta>0δ>0 answers a query yyy either with "y∈S(K,δ)y\in S(K,\delta)y∈S(K,δ)", or with a vector ddd, ∥d∥≥1\|d\|\ge 1∥d∥≥1, such that dTx≤dTy+δd^{\mathsf T}x\le d^{\mathsf T}y+\deltadTx≤dTy+δ for all x∈Kx\in Kx∈K.

Given an objective ccc and an accuracy ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 (with ε<r\varepsilon<rε<r and ∥c∥≥1\|c\|\ge 1∥c∥≥1), set

N=4n2⌈log⁡2R2∥c∥rε⌉,δ=R2 4−N300n,p=5N.N = 4n^2\left\lceil \log\frac{2R^2\|c\|}{r\varepsilon}\right\rceil,\qquad \delta = \frac{R^2\,4^{-N}}{300n},\qquad p = 5N .N=4n2⌈logrε2R2∥c∥​⌉,δ=300nR24−N​,p=5N.

Start from x0=a0x_0=a_0x0​=a0​, A0=R2IA_0=R^2IA0​=R2I. At step kkk query the oracle at xkx_kxk​. If it answers "feasible", kkk is a feasible index and a=ca=ca=c; otherwise a=−da=-da=−d. Put bk=Aka/aTAkab_k = A_ka/\sqrt{a^{\mathsf T}A_ka}bk​=Ak​a/aTAk​a​ and

xk∗=xk+1n+1bk,Ak∗=2n2+32n2(Ak−2n+1bkbkT),x_k^* = x_k+\frac{1}{n+1}b_k,\qquad A_k^* = \frac{2n^2+3}{2n^2}\Bigl(A_k-\frac{2}{n+1}b_kb_k^{\mathsf T}\Bigr),xk∗​=xk​+n+11​bk​,Ak∗​=2n22n2+3​(Ak​−n+12​bk​bkT​),

and obtain xk+1x_{k+1}xk+1​, Ak+1A_{k+1}Ak+1​ by rounding xk∗x_k^*xk∗​, Ak∗A_k^*Ak∗​ to ppp binary digits, keeping Ak+1A_{k+1}Ak+1​ symmetric. The ellipsoids are Ek={x:(x−xk)TAk−1(x−xk)≤1}E_k=\{x : (x-x_k)^{\mathsf T}A_k^{-1}(x-x_k)\le 1\}Ek​={x:(x−xk​)TAk−1​(x−xk​)≤1}, and KkK_kKk​ is the set of points of KKK whose objective value is at least that of every feasible centre found before step kkk.

In Lean, IsRoundedRun K c a₀ R δ p N x A feas a d records exactly these conditions, Kk is KkK_kKk​, and EkE_kEk​ is the published LinearOptimization.ellipsoid (x k) (A k).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem (2.4)

If j<Nj<Nj<N is a feasible index whose centre is best among the feasible centres, cTxj=max⁡{cTxk:k<N feasible}c^{\mathsf T}x_j=\max\{c^{\mathsf T}x_k : k<N \text{ feasible}\}cTxj​=max{cTxk​:k<N feasible}, then

cTxj ≥ max⁡x∈KcTx−ε.c^{\mathsf T}x_j \ \ge\ \max_{x\in K} c^{\mathsf T}x - \varepsilon .cTxj​ ≥ x∈Kmax​cTx−ε.

The statement is for every run, i.e. for every sequence of valid oracle answers and every admissible rounding.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. (13): the explicit inverse (Ak∗)−1=2n22n2+3(Ak−1+2n−1aaTaTAka)(A_k^*)^{-1}=\frac{2n^2}{2n^2+3}\bigl(A_k^{-1}+\frac{2}{n-1}\frac{aa^{\mathsf T}}{a^{\mathsf T}A_ka}\bigr)(Ak∗​)−1=2n2+32n2​(Ak−1​+n−12​aTAk​aaaT​), and Ak∗≻0A_k^*\succ 0Ak∗​≻0.
  2. Lemma (2.1): A0,…,ANA_0,\dots,A_NA0​,…,AN​ are positive definite, ∥xk∥≤∥a0∥+R2k\|x_k\|\le\|a_0\|+R2^k∥xk​∥≤∥a0​∥+R2k, ∥Ak∥≤R22k\|A_k\|\le R^22^k∥Ak​∥≤R22k, ∥Ak−1∥≤R−24k\|A_k^{-1}\|\le R^{-2}4^k∥Ak−1​∥≤R−24k.
  3. Lemma (2.2): μ(Ek+1)<e−1/(5n)μ(Ek)\mu(E_{k+1}) < e^{-1/(5n)}\mu(E_k)μ(Ek+1​)<e−1/(5n)μ(Ek​).
  4. Lemma (2.3): Kk⊆EkK_k\subseteq E_kKk​⊆Ek​ for k=0,…,Nk=0,\dots,Nk=0,…,N.
  5. (32): μ(KN)≤μ(EN)≤e−N/(4n)μ(E0)=e−N/(4n)RnVn\mu(K_N)\le\mu(E_N)\le e^{-N/(4n)}\mu(E_0)=e^{-N/(4n)}R^nV_nμ(KN​)≤μ(EN​)≤e−N/(4n)μ(E0​)=e−N/(4n)RnVn​.
  6. (34): the piece above the level ttt of the cone with base the rrr-disc through x0x_0x0​ orthogonal to ccc and apex y∈Ky\in Ky∈K has volume Vn−1rn−1(ζ−cTx0)n∥c∥(ζ−tζ−cTx0)n\frac{V_{n-1}r^{n-1}(\zeta-c^{\mathsf T}x_0)}{n\|c\|}\bigl(\frac{\zeta-t}{\zeta-c^{\mathsf T}x_0}\bigr)^nn∥c∥Vn−1​rn−1(ζ−cTx0​)​(ζ−cTx0​ζ−t​)n, which bounds μ({z∈K:cTz≥t})\mu(\{z\in K: c^{\mathsf T}z\ge t\})μ({z∈K:cTz≥t}) from below.

Significance

Theorem (2.4) turns any weak separation procedure for a convex body into a weak optimization procedure, with a number of oracle calls and a numerical precision polynomial in nnn, log⁡R\log RlogR, log⁡(1/r)\log(1/r)log(1/r), log⁡∥c∥\log\|c\|log∥c∥ and log⁡(1/ε)\log(1/\varepsilon)log(1/ε). This is the "only if" half of the paper's Theorem (3.1), and through it the source of the polynomial algorithms of Chapters 4–6 of the paper and of the 1988 monograph. Its rounding analysis is what makes the method an algorithm on finite-precision numbers rather than an argument about exact real arithmetic.

The result is proved, and has been for over forty years. What this mission adds is a machine-checked proof of the rounded, weak-oracle version, including the error analysis that the paper compresses into "rounding errors can be estimated similarly". Related items already on the platform formalize exact-arithmetic ellipsoid methods: Bertsimas–Tsitsiklis's central-cut method for polyhedra (LinearOptimization.ellipsoid_method_correct, proved) and Bubeck's version for convex minimization with a first-order oracle (arXiv:1405.4980). Neither has a weak oracle, the inflated factor (2n2+3)/(2n2)(2n^2+3)/(2n^2)(2n2+3)/(2n2), or rounding.

Difficulty

For the exact update with factor n2/(n2−1)n^2/(n^2-1)n2/(n2−1) and an exact separating hyperplane through the centre, containment and volume decrease are a classical computation. Here three perturbations interact. The cut is shifted by δ\deltaδ, so the retained half-ellipsoid is slightly larger than a half. The rounded matrix differs from Ak∗A_k^*Ak∗​ by up to n2−pn2^{-p}n2−p in norm, which could destroy positive definiteness if the smallest eigenvalue were not controlled from below, and Lemma (2.1)'s bound R24−kR^24^{-k}R24−k is what controls it. The containment Kk+1⊆Ek+1K_{k+1}\subseteq E_{k+1}Kk+1​⊆Ek+1​ must absorb both errors, and it is the inflation factor (2n2+3)/(2n2)(2n^2+3)/(2n^2)(2n2+3)/(2n2), chosen larger than the optimal one, that leaves room. The paper bounds the remainder term in (29) only by "similar methods"; making that bound explicit is the bulk of the work. The final step also needs the volume rate e−N/(4n)e^{-N/(4n)}e−N/(4n) in (32), which is sharper than iterating Lemma (2.2) and requires the exact per-step volume ratio of the inflated update.

Formalization scope

Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn is Fin n → ℝ with Lebesgue measure. Since Lean's norm on Fin n → ℝ is the sup norm, the Euclidean norm is written out (euclNorm), and the bounds ∥Ak∥≤R22k\|A_k\|\le R^22^k∥Ak​∥≤R22k, ∥Ak−1∥≤R−24k\|A_k^{-1}\|\le R^{-2}4^k∥Ak−1​∥≤R−24k are stated as quadratic-form (eigenvalue) bounds. NNN uses the natural logarithm and the integer ceiling.

The runs generalize the page in three ways, each of which makes the theorems stronger: the oracle's answers are any answers valid for its specification; rounding is any symmetric value within 2−p2^{-p}2−p entrywise; and data are real rather than rational.

The page's standing assumptions ε<r\varepsilon<rε<r, ∥c∥≥1\|c\|\ge1∥c∥≥1, n≥2n\ge2n≥2 (p. 173) are hypotheses. Two hypotheses are added, because the page's NNN, δ\deltaδ and ppp are absolute numbers and the claims fail at extreme scales:

  • R≥1R\ge 1R≥1 (Lemmas (2.1)–(2.3), (32), Theorem (2.4)): for R=r=2−1000R=r=2^{-1000}R=r=2−1000, ε=r/2\varepsilon=r/2ε=r/2, n=2n=2n=2, rounding can make A1=0A_1=0A1​=0.
  • ε≤1\varepsilon\le1ε≤1 (Lemma (2.3), (32), Theorem (2.4)): for R=r=1013R=r=10^{13}R=r=1013, ε=0.99r\varepsilon=0.99rε=0.99r, n=2n=2n=2, δ>2r\delta>2rδ>2r, and a valid oracle can cut away all of KKK.

Neither is needed in (13) or (34).

A run predicate without the oracle clause would make Lemma (2.3) false, and one with exact equality instead of rounding would state a weaker theorem; the goal quantifies over every run, never over some run. Positive definiteness of the AkA_kAk​ is a consequence (Lemma (2.1)), not a hypothesis: since Lean's inverse of a singular matrix is 000, assuming it would hide the lemma's content.

Out of scope: the paper's polynomial-time claims (Theorem (3.1) and its consequences), the bit length of the numbers, and the rationality of inputs, since no oracle-machine model with bit complexity exists in Mathlib or on the platform.

Reusable infrastructure: volumes of ellipsoids and of cone pieces, Sherman–Morrison-type inverses, and perturbation bounds for positive definite matrices. Contributions of these as separate lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Grötschel, L. Lovász, A. Schrijver, The ellipsoid method and its consequences in combinatorial optimization, Combinatorica 1(2) (1981) 169–197. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02579273
  • P. Gács, L. Lovász, Khachiyan's algorithm for linear programming, Mathematical Programming Study 14 (1981) 61–68. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0120921
  • L. G. Khachiyan, A polynomial algorithm in linear programming, Soviet Mathematics Doklady 20 (1979) 191–194 (English translation of the original article).
  • R. G. Bland, D. Goldfarb, M. J. Todd, The ellipsoid method: a survey, Operations Research 29(6) (1981) 1039–1091. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.29.6.1039
  • M. Grötschel, L. Lovász, A. Schrijver, Geometric Algorithms and Combinatorial Optimization, Springer, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-97881-4
  • D. Bertsimas, J. N. Tsitsiklis, Introduction to Linear Optimization, Athena Scientific, 1997, Ch. 8. Book record.
  • S. Bubeck, Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 8 (2015). https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.4980
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Statistics of Robust Optimization: A Generalized Empirical Likelihood Approach 3: Robust Optimal Values and Solution Sets over f-Divergence Balls Are ConsistentResearch Paper

Motivation

Stochastic optimization asks for a decision xxx in a set X⊂Rd\mathcal X\subset\mathbb R^dX⊂Rd that minimises an expected loss EP0[ℓ(x;ξ)]E_{P_0}[\ell(x;\xi)]EP0​​[ℓ(x;ξ)] when the distribution P0P_0P0​ of the data ξ\xiξ is known only through a sample ξ1,…,ξn\xi_1,\dots,\xi_nξ1​,…,ξn​. The classical estimator, sample average approximation, replaces P0P_0P0​ by the empirical distribution P^n\widehat P_nPn​. Distributionally robust optimization instead minimises the worst-case expected loss over all distributions close to P^n\widehat P_nPn​. Duchi, Glynn and Namkoong (arXiv:1610.03425v3; Math. Oper. Res. 46(3), 2021) take the neighbourhood to be an fff-divergence ball of radius ρ/n\rho/nρ/n and show that the robust optimal value is a calibrated upper confidence bound for the population optimum, in the spirit of Owen's empirical likelihood.

A confidence bound is useful only if the robust problem still estimates the right thing. Section 5 of the paper answers this: under essentially the conditions that make sample average approximation consistent, the robust optimal value converges to the population optimal value, and the robust minimisers approach the population minimisers. This mission formalizes that consistency result (contribution (iv), p. 3, and §5.1).

Setting

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_1,\xi_2,\dotsξ1​,ξ2​,… be i.i.d. random elements of a separable metric space Ξ\XiΞ with law P0P_0P0​, and let P^n\widehat P_nPn​ be the empirical distribution of ξ1,…,ξn\xi_1,\dots,\xi_nξ1​,…,ξn​. Let ℓ:Rd×Ξ→R\ell:\mathbb R^d\times\Xi\to\mathbb Rℓ:Rd×Ξ→R be lower semicontinuous on X×Ξ\mathcal X\times\XiX×Ξ, with ℓ(x;⋅)\ell(x;\cdot)ℓ(x;⋅) measurable for x∈Xx\in\mathcal Xx∈X, and let X⊂Rd\mathcal X\subset\mathbb R^dX⊂Rd be a nonempty closed feasible set, as in the paper's opening setup (p. 1).

The divergence generator f:[0,∞)→R∪{+∞}f:[0,\infty)\to\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\}f:[0,∞)→R∪{+∞} is convex with f(1)=0f(1)=0f(1)=0; Assumption A asks moreover that fff be three times differentiable near 111 with f′(1)=0f'(1)=0f′(1)=0 and f′′(1)=2f''(1)=2f′′(1)=2. For a distribution P≪P^nP\ll\widehat P_nP≪Pn​ with weights pip_ipi​ on the sample points, Df(P∥P^n)=1n∑if(npi)D_f(P\|\widehat P_n)=\frac1n\sum_i f(np_i)Df​(P∥Pn​)=n1​∑i​f(npi​). The robust objective and the population objective are

F^n(x)=sup⁡P≪P^n{EP[ℓ(x;ξ)]:Df(P∥P^n)≤ρn},F(x)=EP0[ℓ(x;ξ)],\widehat F_n(x)=\sup_{P\ll\widehat P_n}\Big\{E_P[\ell(x;\xi)] : D_f(P\|\widehat P_n)\le\frac{\rho}{n}\Big\},\qquad F(x)=E_{P_0}[\ell(x;\xi)],Fn​(x)=P≪Pn​sup​{EP​[ℓ(x;ξ)]:Df​(P∥Pn​)≤nρ​},F(x)=EP0​​[ℓ(x;ξ)],

with radius parameter ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0. Their solution sets are SP^n⋆=argmin⁡x∈XF^n(x)S^\star_{\widehat P_n}=\operatorname{argmin}_{x\in\mathcal X}\widehat F_n(x)SPn​⋆​=argminx∈X​Fn​(x) and SP0⋆=argmin⁡x∈XF(x)S^\star_{P_0}=\operatorname{argmin}_{x\in\mathcal X}F(x)SP0​⋆​=argminx∈X​F(x) (display (23)). The inclusion distance from a set AAA to a set BBB is d⊂(A,B)=sup⁡x∈Adist⁡(x,B)d_\subset(A,B)=\sup_{x\in A}\operatorname{dist}(x,B)d⊂​(A,B)=supx∈A​dist(x,B) (display (6)).

Assumption E asks for a measurable envelope Z≥0Z\ge0Z≥0 with ∣ℓ(x;ξ)∣≤Z(ξ)|\ell(x;\xi)|\le Z(\xi)∣ℓ(x;ξ)∣≤Z(ξ) for all x∈Xx\in\mathcal Xx∈X and EP0[Z1+ϵ]<∞E_{P_0}[Z^{1+\epsilon}]<\inftyEP0​​[Z1+ϵ]<∞ for some ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0. A class H\mathcal HH of functions on Ξ\XiΞ is Glivenko–Cantelli (Definition 2) if sup⁡h∈H∣EP^n[h]−EP0[h]∣→0\sup_{h\in\mathcal H}|E_{\widehat P_n}[h]-E_{P_0}[h]|\to0suph∈H​∣EPn​​[h]−EP0​​[h]∣→0 almost surely.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 1 (p. 17)

Let Assumptions A and E hold, let X\mathcal XX be nonempty and compact, and let ℓ(⋅;ξ)\ell(\cdot;\xi)ℓ(⋅;ξ) be continuous on X\mathcal XX for every ξ\xiξ. Then, in outer probability,

inf⁡x∈XF^n(x)−inf⁡x∈XF(x)→P∗0andd⊂(SP^n⋆,SP0⋆)→P∗0.\inf_{x\in\mathcal X}\widehat F_n(x)-\inf_{x\in\mathcal X}F(x)\xrightarrow{P^*}0 \qquad\text{and}\qquad d_\subset\big(S^\star_{\widehat P_n},S^\star_{P_0}\big)\xrightarrow{P^*}0 .x∈Xinf​Fn​(x)−x∈Xinf​F(x)P∗​0andd⊂​(SPn​⋆​,SP0​⋆​)P∗​0.

Both conclusions belong to the goal. No rate is asserted; the statement survives any later sharpening.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 13 (p. 34): the likelihood-ratio vectors of the ball satisfy ∥np−1∥2≤ρCf\|np-\mathbb 1\|_2\le\sqrt{\rho C_f}∥np−1∥2​≤ρCf​​ uniformly in nnn, and the bound is of the right order (≥ρcf\ge\sqrt{\rho c_f}≥ρcf​​ for some n,pn,pn,p).
  2. (47) (App. E.1, p. 46): ∣EP[ℓ]−EP0[ℓ]∣≤EP^n[∣L−1∣p]1/pEP^n[∣ℓ∣q]1/q+∣EP^n[ℓ]−EP0[ℓ]∣|E_P[\ell]-E_{P_0}[\ell]|\le E_{\widehat P_n}[|L-1|^p]^{1/p}E_{\widehat P_n}[|\ell|^q]^{1/q}+|E_{\widehat P_n}[\ell]-E_{P_0}[\ell]|∣EP​[ℓ]−EP0​​[ℓ]∣≤EPn​​[∣L−1∣p]1/pEPn​​[∣ℓ∣q]1/q+∣EPn​​[ℓ]−EP0​​[ℓ]∣ with q=min⁡{2,1+ϵ}q=\min\{2,1+\epsilon\}q=min{2,1+ϵ}, p=max⁡{2,1+1/ϵ}p=\max\{2,1+1/\epsilon\}p=max{2,1+1/ϵ}.
  3. The display after (47) (p. 46): EP^n[∣L−1∣p]1/p≤n−1/pρCfE_{\widehat P_n}[|L-1|^p]^{1/p}\le n^{-1/p}\sqrt{\rho C_f}EPn​​[∣L−1∣p]1/p≤n−1/pρCf​​.
  4. Theorem 7 (p. 16): if {ℓ(x;⋅):x∈X}\{\ell(x;\cdot):x\in\mathcal X\}{ℓ(x;⋅):x∈X} is Glivenko–Cantelli, then
sup⁡x∈Xsup⁡P≪P^n{∣EP[ℓ(x;ξ)]−EP0[ℓ(x;ξ)]∣:Df(P∥P^n)≤ρn}→a.s.∗0.\sup_{x\in\mathcal X}\sup_{P\ll\widehat P_n}\Big\{|E_P[\ell(x;\xi)]-E_{P_0}[\ell(x;\xi)]| : D_f(P\|\widehat P_n)\le\tfrac{\rho}{n}\Big\}\xrightarrow{\text{a.s.}^*}0.x∈Xsup​P≪Pn​sup​{∣EP​[ℓ(x;ξ)]−EP0​​[ℓ(x;ξ)]∣:Df​(P∥Pn​)≤nρ​}a.s.∗​0.
  1. Example 5 (p. 16, from van der Vaart, Asymptotic Statistics, Example 19.8): a class of losses continuous on a compact X\mathcal XX for almost every ξ\xiξ, with an integrable envelope, is Glivenko–Cantelli.

Significance

The result. Corollary 1 shows that robustness against a ρ/n\rho/nρ/n-divergence perturbation of the data costs nothing asymptotically: the robust optimal value and its minimisers are consistent for the population problem. Together with the paper's coverage theorem, this justifies using the robust value both as a point estimate and as an upper confidence bound. Theorem 7 is stronger than what the corollary needs: it controls every reweighting in the ball uniformly over X\mathcal XX, which is the uniform law of large numbers for distributionally robust objectives, and it needs only slightly more than the first moment that sample average approximation needs.

Formalizing it. The results are proved in the paper; none is machine-checked. A formal development would supply a Glivenko–Cantelli notion for parametric loss classes, the bracketing argument behind Example 5 (a uniform strong law over a compact parameter set, not in Mathlib), and the passage from uniform convergence of objectives to convergence of optimal values and of argmin sets in the inclusion distance. The last two are standard steps of M-estimation and sample average approximation theory that are reusable well beyond this paper.

Difficulty

The obvious argument writes EP[ℓ]−EP0[ℓ]E_P[\ell]-E_{P_0}[\ell]EP​[ℓ]−EP0​​[ℓ] as a reweighting term plus the ordinary empirical deviation and handles the second by the Glivenko–Cantelli property. The reweighting term 1n∑i(npi−1)ℓ(x;ξi)\frac1n\sum_i(np_i-1)\ell(x;\xi_i)n1​∑i​(npi​−1)ℓ(x;ξi​) is the obstacle: the weights npinp_inpi​ are not bounded uniformly in nnn for every divergence, and a Cauchy–Schwarz bound would need a second moment of the envelope, which Assumption E does not provide. The exponent pair (p,q)(p,q)(p,q) and the uniform ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ control of Lemma 13 are what make 1+ϵ1+\epsilon1+ϵ moments enough.

For the solution sets, uniform convergence of F^n\widehat F_nFn​ to FFF does not by itself place the minimisers of F^n\widehat F_nFn​ near those of FFF; compactness of X\mathcal XX and continuity of FFF are needed to separate FFF on the complement of an ϵ\epsilonϵ-enlargement of SP0⋆S^\star_{P_0}SP0​⋆​ from its minimum. Measurability is a further obstacle: suprema over uncountable X\mathcal XX and over the divergence ball need not be measurable, which is why the paper works with outer probability and outer almost-sure convergence.

Formalization scope

  • Samples are ξ : ℕ → Ω → Ξ on a probability space, measurable, mutually independent (iIndepFun) and identically distributed with ξ 0; P0P_0P0​ is the law of ξ 0, and P^n\widehat P_nPn​ uses ξ 0, …, ξ (n-1) (0-based indices). The separable metric sample domain and lower semicontinuous loss from p. 1 are explicit in Theorem 7 and Corollary 1. Decisions live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d); ℓ x is measurable for each x∈Xx\in\mathcal Xx∈X.
  • fff is ℝ → EReal satisfying the published IsPhiDivergenceFunction (never −∞-\infty−∞, finite on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), f(1)=0f(1)=0f(1)=0, convex on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞)) plus the smoothness of Assumption A, stated on t↦(f t).toRealt\mapsto(f\,t).\mathrm{toReal}t↦(ft).toReal on an open interval around 111.
  • A distribution P≪P^nP\ll\widehat P_nP≪Pn​ in the ball is a weight vector in the published probUncertaintySet f (1/n,…,1/n) (ρ/n), i.e. {p≥0:∑pi=1, ∑if(npi)≤ρ}\{p\ge0:\sum p_i=1,\ \sum_i f(np_i)\le\rho\}{p≥0:∑pi​=1, ∑i​f(npi​)≤ρ}. Every supremum "over PPP with Df(P∥P^n)≤ρ/nD_f(P\|\widehat P_n)\le\rho/nDf​(P∥Pn​)≤ρ/n" is read over P≪P^nP\ll\widehat P_nP≪Pn​, as in (4a).
  • Suprema of absolute deviations (Definition 2, Theorem 7) are taken in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and d⊂d_\subsetd⊂​ is [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued; an unbounded family therefore cannot satisfy them through a junk real supremum of 000. Almost-sure statements use Mathlib's ∀ᵐ, which requires the exceptional set to have outer measure zero; convergence in outer probability is μ{ω:δ<∣Xn(ω)∣}→0\mu\{\omega:\delta<|X_n(\omega)|\}\to0μ{ω:δ<∣Xn​(ω)∣}→0 for every δ>0\delta>0δ>0 with Mathlib's outer measure and no measurability hypothesis.
  • Readings recorded in the items: in (47) the middle term is EP^n[∣L−1∣ ∣ℓ∣]E_{\widehat P_n}[|L-1|\,|\ell|]EPn​​[∣L−1∣∣ℓ∣] (the page omits the absolute value on ℓ\ellℓ); in the display after (47), ρ/γf\sqrt{\rho/\gamma_f}ρ/γf​​ is ρCf\sqrt{\rho C_f}ρCf​​ with CfC_fCf​ from Lemma 13; in Lemma 13 the constants may depend on ρ\rhoρ as well as fff, as in its proof.
  • A trivializing formalization would take the suprema in R\mathbb RR (where an unbounded set has supremum 000), or allow the argmin sets to be empty by construction; neither is possible here, and nonemptiness of the solution sets is not assumed.
  • Contributions welcome: a Glivenko–Cantelli library for parametric classes (Example 5), the deterministic inequalities (47) and Lemma 13, and the argmin-consistency argument of Corollary 1.

Selected references

  • J. C. Duchi, P. W. Glynn, H. Namkoong, Statistics of Robust Optimization: A Generalized Empirical Likelihood Approach, arXiv:1610.03425v3, 2018; Math. Oper. Res. 46(3), 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.03425 , https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2020.1085
  • A. W. van der Vaart, Asymptotic Statistics, Cambridge University Press, 1998 (Example 19.8). https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511802256
  • A. W. van der Vaart, J. A. Wellner, Weak Convergence and Empirical Processes, Springer, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2545-2
  • A. B. Owen, Empirical Likelihood, Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781420036152
  • A. Ben-Tal, D. den Hertog, A. De Waegenaere, B. Melenberg, G. Rennen, Robust Solutions of Optimization Problems Affected by Uncertain Probabilities, Management Science 59(2), 2013. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1641
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AnalysisHarmonic AnalysisProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales 1: The Square Function and the Martingale Have Equivalent L^p Norms for 1 < p < ∞Research Paper

Why the square function of a martingale matters

A martingale f=(f1,f2,… )f = (f_1, f_2, \dots)f=(f1​,f2​,…) is a sum fn=d1+⋯+dnf_n = d_1 + \cdots + d_nfn​=d1​+⋯+dn​ of increments that are uncorrelated with the past. For sums of independent random variables, sizes are compared through the sum of squares of the summands; for martingales the corresponding object is the square function

S(f)=(∑k=1∞dk2)1/2.S(f) = \Bigl(\sum_{k=1}^\infty d_k^2\Bigr)^{1/2}.S(f)=(k=1∑∞​dk2​)1/2.

Comparing the size of fff with the size of S(f)S(f)S(f) is one of the basic tools of probability and of harmonic analysis: it underlies Khintchine-type inequalities, the LpL^pLp theory of martingale transforms, the Littlewood–Paley theory of dyadic and Fourier series, and the Burkholder–Davis–Gundy inequalities used throughout stochastic calculus.

Timeline. Paley (1932) proved LpL^pLp bounds for the square function of Walsh–Paley series, the dyadic model case. Marcinkiewicz and Zygmund (1937–38) proved the analogous inequalities for sums of independent mean-zero random variables. Burkholder (1966, Ann. Math. Statist. 37) proved them for general martingales, 1<p<∞1 < p < \infty1<p<∞, together with the weak-type (1,1)(1,1)(1,1) bound for S(f)S(f)S(f). Burkholder and Gundy (1970) extended the comparison to functions Φ\PhiΦ of moderate growth by distribution function ("good-λ\lambdaλ") inequalities, and Davis (1970) settled p=1p = 1p=1 for f∗=sup⁡n∣fn∣f^* = \sup_n |f_n|f∗=supn​∣fn​∣. The 1973 Wald lectures formalized here re-derive the 1<p<∞1 < p < \infty1<p<∞ inequality from one elementary stopping-time identity (Lemma 2.1), with explicit constants.

Setting

Let (Ω,A,P)(\Omega, \mathcal A, P)(Ω,A,P) be a probability space and A0⊆A1⊆⋯\mathcal A_0 \subseteq \mathcal A_1 \subseteq \cdotsA0​⊆A1​⊆⋯ sub-σ\sigmaσ-fields of A\mathcal AA. A martingale relative to A1,A2,…\mathcal A_1, \mathcal A_2, \dotsA1​,A2​,… is a sequence of integrable random variables fnf_nfn​, with fnf_nfn​ An\mathcal A_nAn​-measurable and E(fn+1∣An)=fnE(f_{n+1} \mid \mathcal A_n) = f_nE(fn+1​∣An​)=fn​; a submartingale has ≥\ge≥ in place of ===.

With the convention f0=0f_0 = 0f0​=0, the difference sequence is dk=fk−fk−1d_k = f_k - f_{k-1}dk​=fk​−fk−1​ (so d1=f1d_1 = f_1d1​=f1​). Write

  • Sn(f)=(∑k=1ndk2)1/2S_n(f) = (\sum_{k=1}^n d_k^2)^{1/2}Sn​(f)=(∑k=1n​dk2​)1/2 and S(f)=sup⁡nSn(f)∈[0,∞]S(f) = \sup_n S_n(f) \in [0, \infty]S(f)=supn​Sn​(f)∈[0,∞];
  • fn∗=max⁡1≤k≤n∣fk∣f_n^* = \max_{1\le k\le n} |f_k|fn∗​=max1≤k≤n​∣fk​∣ and f∗=sup⁡n∣fn∣f^* = \sup_n |f_n|f∗=supn​∣fn​∣;
  • ∥Y∥p=(E∣Y∣p)1/p\|Y\|_p = (E|Y|^p)^{1/p}∥Y∥p​=(E∣Y∣p)1/p for a random variable YYY, and ∥f∥p=sup⁡n≥1∥fn∥p\|f\|_p = \sup_{n\ge1} \|f_n\|_p∥f∥p​=supn≥1​∥fn​∥p​ for the process. The process is LpL^pLp-bounded when ∥f∥p<∞\|f\|_p < \infty∥f∥p​<∞.

For λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 the exit time μ=inf⁡{n≥1:∣fn∣>λ}\mu = \inf\{n \ge 1 : |f_n| > \lambda\}μ=inf{n≥1:∣fn​∣>λ} (with inf⁡∅=∞\inf\emptyset = \inftyinf∅=∞) is a stopping time; fμf_\mufμ​, fμ−1f_{\mu-1}fμ−1​, Sμ−1(f)S_{\mu-1}(f)Sμ−1​(f) denote evaluation at the random index, with f∞=lim⁡nfnf_\infty = \lim_n f_nf∞​=limn​fn​ and S∞(f)=S(f)S_\infty(f) = S(f)S∞​(f)=S(f).

In Lean these are dseq, sqFnN, sqFn, maxFnN, lpNormE, pNorm, exitTime, valAt and sqFnAt in the namespace BurkholderDFI.SquareFnLp.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2

For each 1<p<∞1 < p < \infty1<p<∞ there are positive constants cp,Cpc_p, C_pcp​,Cp​, depending only on ppp, such that every martingale satisfies

cp∥S(f)∥p≤∥f∥p≤Cp∥S(f)∥p.c_p \|S(f)\|_p \le \|f\|_p \le C_p \|S(f)\|_p .cp​∥S(f)∥p​≤∥f∥p​≤Cp​∥S(f)∥p​.

The goal asserts only existence of the constants, so that it does not depend on the particular numbers the paper's proof produces.

Milestones

In attack order:

  1. Doob's maximal inequality (1.1): λP(fn∗>λ)≤∫{fn∗>λ}∣fn∣≤∥f∥1\lambda P(f_n^* > \lambda) \le \int_{\{f_n^*>\lambda\}} |f_n| \le \|f\|_1λP(fn∗​>λ)≤∫{fn∗​>λ}​∣fn​∣≤∥f∥1​.
  2. Doob's facts (§1): an L1L^1L1-bounded martingale or nonnegative submartingale converges a.e., and ∥fμ∥1≤∥f∥1\|f_\mu\|_1 \le \|f\|_1∥fμ​∥1​≤∥f∥1​ for every stopping time μ\muμ.
  3. The classical extrapolation (1.2)–(1.3): λP(Y>βλ)≤α∫{Y>λ}X\lambda P(Y > \beta\lambda) \le \alpha\int_{\{Y>\lambda\}} XλP(Y>βλ)≤α∫{Y>λ}​X for all λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 implies ∥Y∥p≤αβpq∥X∥p\|Y\|_p \le \alpha\beta^p q \|X\|_p∥Y∥p​≤αβpq∥X∥p​.
  4. Lemma 2.1: ∥Sμ−1(f)∥22+∥fμ−1∥22≤2Efμfμ−1≤2λ∥f∥1\|S_{\mu-1}(f)\|_2^2 + \|f_{\mu-1}\|_2^2 \le 2E f_\mu f_{\mu-1} \le 2\lambda\|f\|_1∥Sμ−1​(f)∥22​+∥fμ−1​∥22​≤2Efμ​fμ−1​≤2λ∥f∥1​, with equality on the left for martingales.
  5. Theorem 3.1: λP(S(f)>λ)≤3∥f∥1\lambda P(S(f) > \lambda) \le 3\|f\|_1λP(S(f)>λ)≤3∥f∥1​.
  6. Lemma 3.1, (3.4) and (3.5): for nonnegative submartingales, ∥Sn(f)∥p≤9p1/2q∥fn∥p\|S_n(f)\|_p \le 9p^{1/2}q\|f_n\|_p∥Sn​(f)∥p​≤9p1/2q∥fn​∥p​.
  7. (3.7): for martingales, ∥Sn(f)∥p≤18p1/2q∥fn∥p\|S_n(f)\|_p \le 18 p^{1/2} q \|f_n\|_p∥Sn​(f)∥p​≤18p1/2q∥fn​∥p​.
  8. The duality bound: ∥fn∥p≤18q1/2p∥Sn(f)∥p\|f_n\|_p \le 18 q^{1/2} p \|S_n(f)\|_p∥fn​∥p​≤18q1/2p∥Sn​(f)∥p​.

Here qqq is the conjugate exponent, p−1+q−1=1p^{-1} + q^{-1} = 1p−1+q−1=1.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3.2 says that a martingale is bounded in LpL^pLp exactly when its square function lies in LpL^pLp, with comparable norms. It reduces questions about fff, whose increments interact, to questions about ∑dk2\sum d_k^2∑dk2​, a sum of nonnegative terms. Immediate consequences include the LpL^pLp boundedness of martingale transforms ∑vkdk\sum v_k d_k∑vk​dk​ with ∣vk∣≤1|v_k| \le 1∣vk​∣≤1 (unconditionality of martingale differences in LpL^pLp), Marcinkiewicz–Zygmund and Khintchine inequalities, and, by passing through dyadic martingales, Littlewood–Paley inequalities. Theorem 3.1 is the endpoint estimate: at p=1p = 1p=1 the strong inequality fails, and weak type (1,1)(1,1)(1,1) is what survives.

The formalization. The theorem is classical and proved; the remaining work is to machine-check it. Mathlib at the pinned revision contains no square function inequality for martingales (no occurrence of Burkholder's inequality or of a martingale square function in Mathlib/Probability); it has Doob's maximal inequality for nonnegative submartingales, optional stopping, and a.e. convergence of L1L^1L1-bounded submartingales. The mission would add the stopping-time identity of Lemma 2.1, the weak-type bound with constant 3, the explicit LpL^pLp constants 18p1/2q18 p^{1/2} q18p1/2q and 18q1/2p18 q^{1/2} p18q1/2p, and the general extrapolation lemma (1.3), each reusable on its own.

Difficulty

The obvious route, expanding ESn(f)2=Efn2E S_n(f)^2 = E f_n^2ESn​(f)2=Efn2​ by orthogonality, works only at p=2p = 2p=2. For p≠2p \ne 2p=2 no such identity exists, and interpolation from p=2p = 2p=2 needs an endpoint estimate that is itself the hard part: S(f)S(f)S(f) is not bounded on L1L^1L1. The paper obtains the endpoint from Lemma 2.1, whose content is an exact computation at the random time μ\muμ; turning it into rigorous Lean requires handling evaluation at μ=∞\mu = \inftyμ=∞ (where the a.e. limit f∞f_\inftyf∞​ enters), passage to the limit n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞ in stopped identities with only L1L^1L1 control, and integrability of the products fμfμ−1f_\mu f_{\mu-1}fμ​fμ−1​. The upper bound is not a formal consequence of the lower one at the same exponent: it requires passing to the conjugate exponent qqq.

Formalization scope

  • Processes are f : ℕ → Ω → ℝ; martingales and submartingales are Mathlib's Martingale f ℱ P / Submartingale f ℱ P for a filtration ℱ : Filtration ℕ _ with ℱ k =Ak= \mathcal A_k=Ak​. The paper's f0=0f_0 = 0f0​=0 is built into every definition, which never reads Lean's f 0. Mathlib additionally relates f 0 to f1f_1f1​; this is no restriction, since any martingale relative to A1,A2,…\mathcal A_1, \mathcal A_2, \dotsA1​,A2​,… extends by f0:=E(f1∣A0)f_0 := E(f_1 \mid \mathcal A_0)f0​:=E(f1​∣A0​).
  • "Nonnegative submartingale" means fn≥0f_n \ge 0fn​≥0 almost everywhere for n≥1n \ge 1n≥1.
  • S(f)S(f)S(f), f∗f^*f∗, ∥⋅∥p\|\cdot\|_p∥⋅∥p​ and ∥f∥p\|f\|_p∥f∥p​ take values in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞]. Neither ∥f∥p\|f\|_p∥f∥p​ nor ∥S(f)∥p\|S(f)\|_p∥S(f)∥p​ is assumed finite in Theorem 3.2, which therefore also asserts that one is infinite exactly when the other is. In Theorem 3.1, ∥f∥1=∞\|f\|_1 = \infty∥f∥1​=∞ makes the bound trivial, matching the paper's "we may assume that fff is L1L^1L1-bounded".
  • The constants of Theorem 3.2 are quantified before the probability space, the filtration and the martingale. A formalization in which cp,Cpc_p, C_pcp​,Cp​ may depend on fff (for instance Cp=∥f∥p/∥S(f)∥pC_p = \|f\|_p / \|S(f)\|_pCp​=∥f∥p​/∥S(f)∥p​) would be trivially true and is excluded by this quantifier order; so is assuming finiteness of either side.
  • The a.e. limit f∞f_\inftyf∞​ is a parameter of Lemma 2.1 together with the hypothesis that fn→f∞f_n \to f_\inftyfn​→f∞​ a.e.; Doob's §1 facts assert that such a limit exists.
  • Probability spaces live in Type (universe 0).
  • The asymptotic remark after Theorem 3.2 (cp−1=O(p1/2q)c_p^{-1} = O(p^{1/2}q)cp−1​=O(p1/2q), Cp=O(q1/2p)C_p = O(q^{1/2}p)Cp​=O(q1/2p)) is not formalized; the explicit constants it summarizes are milestones 7 and 8.

Infrastructure that a complete development needs and that is reusable beyond this mission: evaluation of a process at an N∪{∞}\mathbb N \cup \{\infty\}N∪{∞}-valued stopping time, the layer-cake formula ∥Y∥pp=∫0∞pλp−1P(Y>λ) dλ\|Y\|_p^p = \int_0^\infty p\lambda^{p-1} P(Y > \lambda)\, d\lambda∥Y∥pp​=∫0∞​pλp−1P(Y>λ)dλ for [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued YYY, and conditional-expectation martingales E(g∣Ak)E(g \mid \mathcal A_k)E(g∣Ak​) with their difference sequences. Proofs of any milestone, in any order, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. L. Burkholder, Distribution function inequalities for martingales, Ann. Probability 1 (1973), 19–42. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176997023
  • D. L. Burkholder, Martingale transforms, Ann. Math. Statist. 37 (1966), 1494–1504. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699141
  • D. L. Burkholder and R. F. Gundy, Extrapolation and interpolation of quasi-linear operators on martingales, Acta Math. 124 (1970), 249–304. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02394573
  • B. Davis, On the integrability of the martingale square function, Israel J. Math. 8 (1970), 187–190. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02771313
  • J. L. Doob, Stochastic Processes, Wiley, New York, 1953.
  • R. E. A. C. Paley, A remarkable series of orthogonal functions (I), Proc. London Math. Soc. (2) 34 (1932), 241–264. https://doi.org/10.1112/plms/s2-34.1.241
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

A Re-solving Heuristic with Uniformly Bounded Loss for Network Revenue Management 2: Frequent Re-solving Loses at Most O(√T) Against the Deterministic LP, Uniformly in the CapacitiesResearch Paper

Motivation

Network revenue management is the problem of selling several limited, perishable resources (seats on flight legs, hotel room-nights, machine hours) to customers who arrive over time and each want a fixed bundle of them. A seller who accepts every request early may run out of the resources that the most valuable later customers need, and a seller who is too cautious leaves capacity unsold at the end of the horizon. Airlines, hotels and car-rental firms solve instances of this problem daily (Talluri and van Ryzin, 2004).

The exact optimal policy is a dynamic program over the vector of remaining capacities, which is intractable for realistic networks. The standard remedy replaces the random demand by its mean, which gives a linear program, the deterministic LP (DLP), and turns its solution into an admission rule. Its value is an upper bound on what any policy can earn (Gallego and van Ryzin, 1997). Solving the LP once, at time zero, loses O(T)O(\sqrt{T})O(T​) against that bound over a horizon of length TTT. A natural improvement is to re-solve the LP as capacity is consumed.

Timeline of the re-solving question, as the source surveys it (Sec. 1, pp. 3–4):

  • 1997: Gallego and van Ryzin: static policies built from the DLP lose Θ(T)\Theta(\sqrt{T})Θ(T​).
  • 2002: Cooper gives an example in which re-solving the DLP makes booking-limit control worse.
  • 2008: Reiman and Wang re-solve exactly once, at an endogenous random time, with probabilistic allocation, and obtain o(T)o(\sqrt{T})o(T​) loss.
  • 2012: Jasin and Kumar prove that re-solving after every unit of time with probabilistic allocation (the policy FR below) loses O(1)O(1)O(1), provided the DLP solution is nondegenerate. Wu et al. (2015) obtain O(1)O(1)O(1) for one resource, with a constant that blows up as the solution approaches degeneracy.
  • 2018: Bumpensanti and Wang (arXiv:1802.06192) show that FR can lose Ω(T)\Omega(\sqrt{T})Ω(T​) against the hindsight optimum on a degenerate instance, propose a modified policy with O(1)O(1)O(1) loss in all cases, and prove that FR never loses more than O(T)O(\sqrt{T})O(T​) against the DLP. This mission formalizes the last of these results.

Setting

There are nnn customer classes j∈[n]j \in [n]j∈[n] and mmm resources l∈[m]l \in [m]l∈[m]. Over the horizon [0,T][0, T][0,T], class-jjj customers arrive according to independent Poisson processes with rates λj>0\lambda_j > 0λj​>0. Accepting a class-jjj customer earns rj≥0r_j \ge 0rj​≥0 and consumes alj≥0a_{lj} \ge 0alj​≥0 units of each resource lll; A=(alj)A = (a_{lj})A=(alj​) is the bill-of-materials matrix and AjA_jAj​ its jjj-th column. The initial capacity vector is C≥0C \ge 0C≥0. A customer can be accepted only if Aj≤C′A_j \le C'Aj​≤C′ componentwise, where C′C'C′ is the capacity remaining at its arrival.

For a capacity-per-unit-time vector b≥0b \ge 0b≥0, let

v(b)=max⁡{∑j=1nrjxj : ∑j=1nAjxj≤b, 0≤xj≤λj}.v(b) = \max\Big\{ \sum_{j=1}^n r_j x_j \ :\ \sum_{j=1}^n A_j x_j \le b,\ 0 \le x_j \le \lambda_j \Big\}.v(b)=max{j=1∑n​rj​xj​ : j=1∑n​Aj​xj​≤b, 0≤xj​≤λj​}.

The DLP value is vDLP(T,C)=T v(C/T)v^{\mathrm{DLP}}(T, C) = T\, v(C/T)vDLP(T,C)=Tv(C/T).

The Frequent Re-solving policy (FR) divides the horizon into TTT unit periods [t,t+1)[t, t+1)[t,t+1). At the start of period ttt, with remaining capacity C(t)C(t)C(t), it sets b(t)=C(t)/(T−t)b(t) = C(t)/(T - t)b(t)=C(t)/(T−t), computes an optimal solution x(t)x(t)x(t) of the LP with right-hand side b(t)b(t)b(t), and during the period accepts each class-jjj arrival with probability xj(t)/λjx_j(t)/\lambda_jxj​(t)/λj​, subject to the capacity check. Its expected revenue is vFR(T,C)v^{\mathrm{FR}}(T, C)vFR(T,C). The LP may have several optimal solutions; the results hold for every rule choosing among them.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3

There is a constant MMM, depending only on λ\lambdaλ, rrr and AAA, such that for every integer T≥1T \ge 1T≥1, every capacity C≥0C \ge 0C≥0 and every choice of optimal LP solutions,

vDLP(T,C)−vFR(T,C)≤MT.v^{\mathrm{DLP}}(T, C) - v^{\mathrm{FR}}(T, C) \le M \sqrt{T}.vDLP(T,C)−vFR(T,C)≤MT​.

The content is the uniformity: MMM does not depend on CCC, so the bound holds whether capacity is scarce, abundant, or degenerate for the LP.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Eq. (32), p. 35. The capacity check costs FR at most ∑jrj(log⁡T+1)+∑jrjλj\sum_j r_j(\log T + 1) + \sum_j r_j \lambda_j∑j​rj​(logT+1)+∑j​rj​λj​ relative to the LP revenue it targets:
vFR≥E[∑t=0T−1∑j=1nrjxj(t)]−∑j=1nrj(log⁡T+1)−∑j=1nrjλj.v^{\mathrm{FR}} \ge \mathbb{E}\Big[\sum_{t=0}^{T-1} \sum_{j=1}^n r_j x_j(t)\Big] - \sum_{j=1}^n r_j (\log T + 1) - \sum_{j=1}^n r_j \lambda_j .vFR≥E[t=0∑T−1​j=1∑n​rj​xj​(t)]−j=1∑n​rj​(logT+1)−j=1∑n​rj​λj​.
  1. Eq. (33), p. 35. LP sensitivity in the right-hand side: v(b)−v(b′)≤∑lrmax⁡l(bl−bl′)+v(b) - v(b') \le \sum_l r^l_{\max} (b_l - b'_l)^+v(b)−v(b′)≤∑l​rmaxl​(bl​−bl′​)+ with rmax⁡l=max⁡jrjI(alj>0)/aljr^l_{\max} = \max_j r_j \mathbb{I}(a_{lj} > 0)/a_{lj}rmaxl​=maxj​rj​I(alj​>0)/alj​.
  2. Lemma 8, p. 43 (corrected). E[(bl−bl(t))+]≤Kl∑i=0t−1(T−i−1)−2\mathbb{E}[(b_l - b_l(t))^+] \le K_l \sqrt{\sum_{i=0}^{t-1} (T-i-1)^{-2}}E[(bl​−bl​(t))+]≤Kl​∑i=0t−1​(T−i−1)−2​ with Kl=∑jalj2λjK_l = \sqrt{\sum_j a_{lj}^2 \lambda_j}Kl​=∑j​alj2​λj​​.
  3. p. 36. ∑t=0T−1∑i=0t−1(T−i−1)−2≤2T+2\sum_{t=0}^{T-1} \sqrt{\sum_{i=0}^{t-1} (T-i-1)^{-2}} \le 2\sqrt{T} + \sqrt{2}∑t=0T−1​∑i=0t−1​(T−i−1)−2​≤2T​+2​.
  4. p. 36, explicit bound.
vDLP−vFR≤∑l=1mrmax⁡lKl(2T+2)+n rmax⁡(log⁡T+1)+n rmax⁡λmax⁡.v^{\mathrm{DLP}} - v^{\mathrm{FR}} \le \sum_{l=1}^m r^l_{\max} K_l (2\sqrt{T} + \sqrt{2}) + n\, r_{\max} (\log T + 1) + n\, r_{\max} \lambda_{\max} .vDLP−vFR≤l=1∑m​rmaxl​Kl​(2T​+2​)+nrmax​(logT+1)+nrmax​λmax​.

Significance

The result. Because vDLPv^{\mathrm{DLP}}vDLP bounds the expected revenue of every admissible policy, Proposition 3 says that FR loses at most O(T)O(\sqrt{T})O(T​) against the optimal policy in every instance, degenerate or not. Re-solving therefore never does worse, in order, than solving once. Together with the Ω(T)\Omega(\sqrt{T})Ω(T​) lower bound on a degenerate instance (Proposition 2 of the same paper), it shows that the order T\sqrt{T}T​ is exact for FR. The nondegeneracy assumption of the earlier O(1)O(1)O(1) analysis cannot be dropped. The explicit form (milestone 5) bounds the loss by constants computable from (λ,r,A)(\lambda, r, A)(λ,r,A).

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the source; no part of it is machine-checked. A formalization adds three things. It gives a precise model of an adaptive, randomized admission policy in a Poisson network, which other results on re-solving and bid-price policies can reuse. It gives a checked LP sensitivity bound. And it checks the paper's constants: the printed constant of Lemma 8 is wrong (see Formalization scope), and the mission states the corrected one.

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares FR with the DLP period by period: the LP that FR solves at time ttt differs from the original only in its right-hand side, so the loss should be controlled by how far b(t)b(t)b(t) drifts below b=C/Tb = C/Tb=C/T. Two things break a naive version of this. First, b(t)b(t)b(t) is a ratio whose denominator T−tT - tT−t shrinks to 111, so fluctuations late in the horizon are amplified; a crude bound on the drift at each ttt sums to more than T\sqrt{T}T​. Second, FR's realized consumption is not the LP's target: the capacity check rejects customers, and the LP solutions x(i)x(i)x(i) depend on the whole past, so the consumption in different periods is not independent.

Uniformity in CCC is the whole point. Arguments that rely on a margin between C/TC/TC/T and the degenerate points of the LP, as in the nondegenerate analysis, give constants that blow up as that margin vanishes.

Formalization scope

The source is arXiv:1802.06192v3, whose printed page numbers equal the PDF page numbers. Everything lives in the namespace ResolvingNRM.FRUpper.

  • LP value. v(b)v(b)v(b) is the published piValue A r b lam of RLPBidPrice.Unbiased.Model (a real supremum, equal to the LP maximum for b≥0b \ge 0b≥0).
  • Optimal solutions. The "arg⁡max⁡\arg\maxargmax" of Algorithm 2 is an arbitrary optimal-solution selector sel; every theorem quantifies over all selectors, with constants chosen before the selector.
  • Randomness. Within a period the acceptance probabilities are fixed, so the period's arrivals are represented exactly as a Poisson number of customers in arrival order, with i.i.d. classes of law λj/∑iλi\lambda_j / \sum_i \lambda_iλj​/∑i​λi​ and independent Bernoulli acceptance coins. Expectations are series over this law (windowExp). FR's value is a backward recursion over periods (frTail), and expectations of functions of C(t)C(t)C(t) are a forward recursion (frStateExp).
  • Horizon. TTT is a positive integer; capacities are real vectors.
  • Standing assumptions of p. 7, left implicit there and hypotheses here: λj>0\lambda_j > 0λj​>0, rj≥0r_j \ge 0rj​≥0, alj≥0a_{lj} \ge 0alj​≥0, C≥0C \ge 0C≥0.
  • O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅). "=O(T)= O(\sqrt{T})=O(T​)" is ∃M, ∀ sel,T≥1,C≥0\exists M,\ \forall\, \mathrm{sel}, T \ge 1, C \ge 0∃M, ∀sel,T≥1,C≥0. The paper's threshold T1T_1T1​ is dropped, which is equivalent because 0≤vFR0 \le v^{\mathrm{FR}}0≤vFR and vDLP≤T∑jrjλjv^{\mathrm{DLP}} \le T\sum_j r_j\lambda_jvDLP≤T∑j​rj​λj​.
  • Corrected slip, Lemma 8. The printed Kl=∑jalj2λj2K_l = \sqrt{\sum_j a_{lj}^2 \lambda_j^2}Kl​=∑j​alj2​λj2​​ is false: the proof replaces the conditional variance xj(i)≤λjx_j(i) \le \lambda_jxj​(i)≤λj​ of a Poisson increment by λj2\lambda_j^2λj2​. With one class, one resource, a=1a = 1a=1, λ=0.01\lambda = 0.01λ=0.01, C=λTC = \lambda TC=λT, T=1000T = 1000T=1000 and t=2t = 2t=2, an exact computation gives E[(b−b(2))+]≈1.96⋅10−5\mathbb{E}[(b - b(2))^+] \approx 1.96 \cdot 10^{-5}E[(b−b(2))+]≈1.96⋅10−5, above the printed bound 1.42⋅10−51.42 \cdot 10^{-5}1.42⋅10−5. The mission uses Kl=∑jalj2λjK_l = \sqrt{\sum_j a_{lj}^2 \lambda_j}Kl​=∑j​alj2​λj​​ in Lemma 8 and in the explicit bound.
  • Index slip. The paper's sums ∑l=1L\sum_{l=1}^L∑l=1L​ run over its mmm resources and are read as l∈[m]l \in [m]l∈[m].

A trivializing formalization is ruled out. The constant MMM is chosen before CCC. FR is defined with every optimal LP solution, not only nondegenerate or vertex ones. The capacity check is kept arrival by arrival; without it, FR's expected revenue would equal the LP revenue it targets and the gap would be trivially small.

Contributions welcome on every milestone. The LP sensitivity bound (33) is a statement about linear programs alone and milestone 4 about real numbers alone; both are reusable outside this mission, as is the window model of a randomized admission policy.

Selected references

  • Y. Bumpensanti, H. Wang, A Re-solving Heuristic with Uniformly Bounded Loss for Network Revenue Management, arXiv:1802.06192v3, 2018 (the source of this mission; later in Management Science 66(7), 2020). https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.06192
  • G. Gallego, G. van Ryzin, A Multiproduct Dynamic Pricing Problem and Its Applications to Network Yield Management, Operations Research 45(1), 24–41, 1997.
  • W. L. Cooper, Asymptotic Behavior of an Allocation Policy for Revenue Management, Operations Research 50(4), 720–727, 2002.
  • M. I. Reiman, Q. Wang, An Asymptotically Optimal Policy for a Quantity-Based Network Revenue Management Problem, Mathematics of Operations Research 33(2), 257–282, 2008.
  • S. Jasin, S. Kumar, A Re-Solving Heuristic with Bounded Revenue Loss for Network Revenue Management with Customer Choice, Mathematics of Operations Research 37(2), 313–345, 2012.
  • K. T. Talluri, G. J. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Springer, 2004.

Bibliographic details of the non-arXiv entries are those of the source's reference list (pp. 24–25).

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CombinatoricsLinear OptimizationOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

An Additive Algorithm for Solving Linear Programs with Zero-One Variables: In Finitely Many Iterations the Additive Algorithm Yields an Optimal Solution or Proves InfeasibilityResearch Paper

Motivation

Binary decisions arise when a variable records whether a project is selected, a facility is opened, or an action is taken. Linear constraints then describe the resources or conditions those choices must satisfy. Egon Balas's 1965 paper gives a direct algorithm for a finite linear program with zero-one variables: it begins with all variables at zero, adds variables with value one, and uses explicit tests to discard assignments that cannot improve the best feasible assignment found so far. The paper states that the procedure eventually produces an optimal feasible solution or a conclusion that none exists. Its numbered convergence theorem is the target of this mission. Balas (1965)

The result is historically distinct from algorithms that solve a continuous relaxation and then enforce integrality. Balas describes his method as a direct combinatorial search over binary assignments, with additions and subtractions used to update costs and slacks. The theorem concerns the correctness and finite termination of the particular steps printed in the paper, including their backward scan and cancellation rules. The local catalog contains work on branch and bound for a biconvex program, but no existing platform item about a zero-one programming algorithm with these steps; the biconvex result concerns a different model and algorithm. Balas (1965)

Setting

Let NNN be a finite set of binary coordinates and MMM a finite set of constraints. The data are a real matrix A=(aij)i∈M,j∈NA=(a_{ij})_{i\in M,j\in N}A=(aij​)i∈M,j∈N​, a real vector b=(bi)i∈Mb=(b_i)_{i\in M}b=(bi​)i∈M​, and nonnegative objective coefficients cj≥0c_j\ge0cj​≥0. A binary assignment is represented by the set J⊆NJ\subseteq NJ⊆N of coordinates assigned one; all other coordinates are zero. Its slack and cost are

yi(J)=bi−∑j∈Jaij,z(J)=∑j∈Jcj.y_i(J)=b_i-\sum_{j\in J}a_{ij},\qquad z(J)=\sum_{j\in J}c_j.yi​(J)=bi​−j∈J∑​aij​,z(J)=j∈J∑​cj​.

The assignment is feasible when yi(J)≥0y_i(J)\ge0yi​(J)≥0 for every i∈Mi\in Mi∈M. It is optimal when it is feasible and has no greater cost than any other feasible assignment. These are Balas's problem PPP and solutions (1)–(8). The coefficients of AAA and bbb may have either sign; NNN and MMM may be empty. Balas (1965), pp. 519, 523

The algorithm generates assignments J0,J1,…,JsJ_0,J_1,\ldots,J_sJ0​,J1​,…,Js​, starting at J0=∅J_0=\varnothingJ0​=∅. Among the generated feasible assignments, their least cost is the ceiling z∗(s)z^{*(s)}z∗(s); if there are none, z∗(s)=+∞z^{*(s)}=+\inftyz∗(s)=+∞. Each generated assignment has an improving set NpN_pNp​ formed when it first appears. Later steps cancel candidate indices and keep records CksC_k^sCks​ of which values attached to an earlier assignment have been cancelled by the time JsJ_sJs​ is generated. The algorithm either processes the latest assignment, scans earlier strict subsets in descending order, or stops. Its value-based choice rule permits several choices when both value and cost tie. Balas (1965), pp. 523–528

Formalization targets

The paper's two lemmas and Theorem 1 establish the cancellation claims used by its convergence theorem. Lemma 1 says a feasible completion Jt⊃JsJ_t\supset J_sJt​⊃Js​ below the current ceiling adds no index in CsC^sCs; Lemma 2 makes the corresponding assertion for an earlier assignment under its stated complete-cancellation hypothesis. Theorem 1 says that an abandoned assignment has no better feasible completion. The two numbered parts of the convergence proof assert that a single iteration cannot continue indefinitely and that no assignment is generated twice. A remark after (16) records that a feasible generated assignment has an empty improving set. Balas (1965), pp. 529–533

The mission's goal is Convergence Theorem 2:

every run from J0=∅ stops after finitely many steps, with either an optimal feasible assignment or a valid infeasibility verdict.\text{every run from }J_0=\varnothing\text{ stops after finitely many steps, with either an optimal feasible assignment or a valid infeasibility verdict.}every run from J0​=∅ stops after finitely many steps, with either an optimal feasible assignment or a valid infeasibility verdict.

The finite-step assertion includes progress: every reachable state before a stopping situation has a successor. At a stop, z∗(s)=+∞z^{*(s)}=+\inftyz∗(s)=+∞ means no feasible binary assignment exists; if the ceiling is finite, a generated assignment attaining it exists and every generated assignment at that cost is optimal for PPP. These clauses make the paper's two possible outcomes explicit. Balas (1965), Convergence Theorem 2 and step 5a

Significance

The theorem certifies the algorithm as a complete decision and optimization procedure for the stated finite binary program. The infeasibility outcome concerns every possible binary assignment, not only the assignments the algorithm happened to visit. The optimality outcome similarly compares the reported assignment against all feasible assignments. Without these global claims, reaching a stopping situation would only show that the current search path has no remaining candidates. Balas (1965), pp. 526, 533

The result was proved in the 1965 paper. The work here is to state its algorithm and correctness claims in Lean and provide a target for a machine-checked proof; the submitted theorem files are open statements. The finite binary-program model, cost and slack functions, ceiling with infinity, and state-transition vocabulary can also support formal analyses of other exact enumeration procedures. The particular cancellation and backward-scan rules belong to Balas's algorithm. Balas (1965)

Difficulty

It is immediate that there are finitely many binary assignments. That alone does not show finite termination: the paper's step 5 may revisit earlier generated assignments, and the rules must prevent repeated work within one iteration as well as repeated generated assignments across iterations. It also does not justify pruning. When an improving set becomes empty, the remaining challenge is to show that no feasible assignment omitted by the search improves the ceiling. These are the separate claims recorded in parts (a) and (b), Lemmas 1–2, and Theorem 1. Balas (1965), pp. 529–533

Formalization scope

Lean uses Fin n and Fin m for the paper's one-based index sets. A binary assignment is a Finset (Fin n). A general finite zero-one linear program is its own definition; problem PPP adds the paper's standing assumption cj≥0c_j\ge0cj​≥0. There is no positive-size assumption on either index set. The algorithm stores generated assignments, each improving set as formed, cancellation snapshots, current cancellations, and its program point. Slack and cost are recomputed from the assignment by (6) and (21). Reachability is the reflexive transitive closure of the printed steps, and all milestone claims about states are restricted to reachable ones. The strict symbol ⊂\subset⊂ means proper inclusion as the paper's footnote specifies. Balas (1965), pp. 523–525

The ceiling is represented in WithTop ℝ, with ⊤\top⊤ for +∞+\infty+∞. The cost tests (14), (17), (24), and (29) are written additively so they retain the paper's meaning when no feasible assignment has yet been generated. The improving set NpN_pNp​ remains fixed after generation; the step-5 scan uses Nks=Nk−(Cks∪Dks)N_k^s=N_k-(C_k^s\cup D_k^s)Nks​=Nk​−(Cks​∪Dks​) with the stored snapshot CksC_k^sCks​, as in (18). Step 1a cancels the cost-bound indices for every earlier assignment, and steps 6a and 7b resume the scan below the index just checked. The final tie break permits any index still tied after minimizing its cost. “In a finite number of iterations” is encoded as no infinite run plus a next step at each reachable non-stopped state. “No feasible solution” quantifies over all binary assignments. “Abandoned” is the predicate specified before Theorem 1: uku^kuk is abandoned when the algorithm is instructed to stop, or to check some NpsN_p^sNps​ with p<k≤sp<k\le sp<k≤s, including the indices step 5 passes over because their remaining improving set is empty. Lemma 2 reads Cps+1C_p^{s+1}Cps+1​ either as the cancellations accumulated so far during iteration s+1s+1s+1 or as the cancellation records at the transition that obtains us+1u^{s+1}us+1. Balas (1965), pp. 525–533

The paper prints z∗(k)z^{*(k)}z∗(k) in Theorem 1, but its algorithm and proof use the ceiling at the abandonment iteration, z∗(s)z^{*(s)}z∗(s); the Lean theorem states that corrected version and retains the original wording in the milestone record. A transition system that is stuck before a declared stopping situation, a ceiling encoded as a finite real sentinel, or a verdict quantified only over generated assignments would make the goal weaker than the paper's claim. Contributions toward the milestone proofs, state invariants, and reusable finite-search lemmas are in scope. The preliminary reduction of a general binary program to PPP, the efficiency remarks, numerical examples, and the modified algorithm of Remark II are outside this mission. Balas (1965), pp. 519, 528–533

Selected references

  • Egon Balas, An Additive Algorithm for Solving Linear Programs with Zero-One Variables, Operations Research 13(4), 517–546, 1965. DOI: 10.1287/opre.13.4.517
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Control TheoryProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Backward-Forward Stochastic Differential Equations 1: A Backward Equation Driven by a Bounded-Variation Integrator Has a Unique Adapted Solution in L¹(μ) Under Integrability AloneResearch Paper

Motivation

Backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) prescribe a process by its terminal value rather than its initial value: the unknown VVV must be adapted to the information flow, yet must reach a given random variable YYY at the horizon TTT. They arise in mathematical finance (pricing and hedging, where YYY is a contingent claim), in stochastic control (adjoint equations of the stochastic maximum principle) and in economics, where the stochastic differential utility of Duffie and Epstein (1992) defines the utility of a consumption stream as the solution of a backward equation.

Timeline:

  • 1990. Pardoux and Peng prove existence and uniqueness of adapted solutions for Lipschitz BSDEs driven by a Brownian motion, with square-integrable data (doi:10.1016/0167-6911(90)90082-6).
  • 1992. Duffie and Epstein introduce stochastic differential utility and state a conjecture on the well-posedness of the defining backward equation under LpL^pLp integrability (doi:10.2307/2951600).
  • 1993. Antonelli treats the backward equation with a general bounded-variation integrator AAA in place of dtdtdt, under integrability alone, and answers the Duffie–Epstein question for p=1p=1p=1 (doi:10.1214/aoap/1177005363). This mission formalizes that result, §2 of the paper.

Setting

Let (Ω,F,(Ft)0≤t≤T,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,(\mathcal F_t)_{0\le t\le T},P)(Ω,F,(Ft​)0≤t≤T​,P) be a complete filtered probability space satisfying the usual hypotheses: the filtration is right-continuous and F0\mathcal F_0F0​ contains every PPP-null set. Let AAA be an adapted process with right-continuous paths of bounded variation, A0=0A_0=0A0​=0, whose total variation process ∣A∣t|A|_t∣A∣t​ satisfies ∣A∣T≤β|A|_T\le\beta∣A∣T​≤β for a constant β>0\beta>0β>0. Integrals ∫sthr dAr\int_s^t h_r\,dA_r∫st​hr​dAr​ are pathwise Lebesgue–Stieltjes integrals over (s,t](s,t](s,t].

The Doléans–Dade measure μ\muμ of ∣A∣|A|∣A∣ is the finite measure on [0,T]×Ω[0,T]\times\Omega[0,T]×Ω with

∫X dμ=E(∫0TXs ∣dAs∣),\int X\,d\mu=E\Big(\int_0^T X_s\,|dA_s|\Big),∫Xdμ=E(∫0T​Xs​∣dAs​∣),

and L1(μ)L^1(\mu)L1(μ) is the space of jointly measurable processes VVV with ∥V∥L1(μ)=E(∫0T∣Vt∣ ∣dAt∣)<+∞\|V\|_{L^1(\mu)}=E\big(\int_0^T|V_t|\,|dA_t|\big)<+\infty∥V∥L1(μ)​=E(∫0T​∣Vt​∣∣dAt​∣)<+∞.

The data are a driver gs(ω,u)g_s(\omega,u)gs​(ω,u), jointly measurable, and a terminal value YYY, subject to hypotheses 1–4:

  1. ∣gs(u)−gs(v)∣≤k∣u−v∣|g_s(u)-g_s(v)|\le k|u-v|∣gs​(u)−gs​(v)∣≤k∣u−v∣ for some k>0k>0k>0, all u,vu,vu,v and all s∈[0,T]s\in[0,T]s∈[0,T];
  2. gs(⋅,u)g_s(\cdot,u)gs​(⋅,u) is Fs\mathcal F_sFs​-measurable;
  3. E(∫0T∣gs(0)∣ ∣dAs∣)<+∞E\big(\int_0^T|g_s(0)|\,|dA_s|\big)<+\inftyE(∫0T​∣gs​(0)∣∣dAs​∣)<+∞;
  4. Y∈L1(P)Y\in L^1(P)Y∈L1(P) is FT\mathcal F_TFT​-measurable.

The backward equation is the fixed-point problem for

G(V)t=E(∫tTgs(Vs) dAs+Y ∣ Ft).(2.1)G(V)_t=E\Big(\int_t^T g_s(V_s)\,dA_s+Y\ \Big|\ \mathcal F_t\Big).\tag{2.1}G(V)t​=E(∫tT​gs​(Vs​)dAs​+Y ​ Ft​).(2.1)

When At=tA_t=tAt​=t this is the Duffie–Epstein equation Vt=E(∫tTgs(Vs) ds+Y∣Ft)V_t=E\big(\int_t^T g_s(V_s)\,ds+Y\mid\mathcal F_t\big)Vt​=E(∫tT​gs​(Vs​)ds+Y∣Ft​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.4

Under hypotheses 1–4 there is a progressively measurable process V∈L1(μ)V\in L^1(\mu)V∈L1(μ) with càdlàg paths such that

E(∫0T∣G(V)t−Vt∣ ∣dAt∣)=0,E\Big(\int_0^T|G(V)_t-V_t|\,|dA_t|\Big)=0,E(∫0T​∣G(V)t​−Vt​∣∣dAt​∣)=0,

VVV is a semimartingale through the decomposition

Vt=E(∫0Tgs(Vs) dAs+Y ∣ Ft)−∫0tgs(Vs) dAs,(2.9)V_t=E\Big(\int_0^T g_s(V_s)\,dA_s+Y\ \Big|\ \mathcal F_t\Big)-\int_0^t g_s(V_s)\,dA_s,\tag{2.9}Vt​=E(∫0T​gs​(Vs​)dAs​+Y ​ Ft​)−∫0t​gs​(Vs​)dAs​,(2.9)

and any two solutions in L1(μ)L^1(\mu)L1(μ) agree μ\muμ-almost everywhere.

Milestones

In the order of the paper's argument:

  1. Remark 2.2, (2.6): E(H∫[0,∞)a(s) dCs)=E(∫[0,∞)Hs a(s) dCs)E\big(H\int_{[0,\infty)}a(s)\,dC_s\big)=E\big(\int_{[0,\infty)}H_s\,a(s)\,dC_s\big)E(H∫[0,∞)​a(s)dCs​)=E(∫[0,∞)​Hs​a(s)dCs​) for an adapted increasing càdlàg CCC and a càdlàg version HtH_tHt​ of E(H∣Ft)E(H\mid\mathcal F_t)E(H∣Ft​), for HHH positive or in L1L^1L1.
  2. Lemma 2.3: GGG maps L1(μ)L^1(\mu)L1(μ) into L1(μ)L^1(\mu)L1(μ).
  3. The relation ∑i=0n(−1)iAt((n−i)−)At(i)=0\sum_{i=0}^n(-1)^iA_t^{((n-i)-)}A_t^{(i)}=0∑i=0n​(−1)iAt((n−i)−)​At(i)​=0 between the iterated integrals A(n)=((A⋅A)⋯ )⋅AA^{(n)}=((A\cdot A)\cdots)\cdot AA(n)=((A⋅A)⋯)⋅A and A(n−)=((A−⋅A)−⋯ )⋅AA^{(n-)}=((A_-\cdot A)_-\cdots)\cdot AA(n−)=((A−​⋅A)−​⋯)⋅A.
  4. (2.7): ∣G(n)(U)t−G(n)(V)t∣≤knE(∫tT(As−−At)[n−1]∣Us−Vs∣ dAs∣Ft)|G^{(n)}(U)_t-G^{(n)}(V)_t|\le k^nE\big(\int_t^T(A_{s-}-A_t)^{[n-1]}|U_s-V_s|\,dA_s\mid\mathcal F_t\big)∣G(n)(U)t​−G(n)(V)t​∣≤knE(∫tT​(As−​−At​)[n−1]∣Us​−Vs​∣dAs​∣Ft​).
  5. (2.8): E∫0T∣G(n)(U)t−G(n)(V)t∣ dAt≤knE∫0TAt−(n−)∣Ut−Vt∣ dAtE\int_0^T|G^{(n)}(U)_t-G^{(n)}(V)_t|\,dA_t\le k^nE\int_0^TA^{(n-)}_{t-}|U_t-V_t|\,dA_tE∫0T​∣G(n)(U)t​−G(n)(V)t​∣dAt​≤knE∫0T​At−(n−)​∣Ut​−Vt​∣dAt​.
  6. At(n−)≤Atn/n!A^{(n-)}_t\le A_t^n/n!At(n−)​≤Atn​/n!.
  7. The iterate bound ∥G(n)(U)−G(n)(V)∥L1(μ)≤kn(βn/n!)∥U−V∥L1(μ)\|G^{(n)}(U)-G^{(n)}(V)\|_{L^1(\mu)}\le k^n(\beta^n/n!)\|U-V\|_{L^1(\mu)}∥G(n)(U)−G(n)(V)∥L1(μ)​≤kn(βn/n!)∥U−V∥L1(μ)​.

Milestones 3–7 live inside the proof, after its reduction to nondecreasing AAA.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2.4 gives well-posedness of a backward equation with no square-integrability and no Brownian structure: the filtration is arbitrary (subject to the usual hypotheses), the integrator may jump, and only first moments are required. In the case At=tA_t=tAt​=t it settles the p=1p=1p=1 case of the Duffie–Epstein conjecture, so stochastic differential utility is well defined for integrable consumption data. The same fixed-point scheme, with the Doléans measure of a dominating process, is the basis of the coupled backward–forward result of §3 of the paper (a separate mission of this series).

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the literature but, as far as is known, has no machine-checked proof; Mathlib has conditional expectations, filtrations, martingales and Stieltjes measures, but no càdlàg process theory, no optional projection and no Doléans measure. A complete development produces these pieces. Its milestones also make precise points the paper leaves implicit: G is defined only up to versions, and the iterate bound is printed with GGG in place of G(n)G^{(n)}G(n).

Difficulty

The obvious approach is to show that GGG itself is a contraction on L1(μ)L^1(\mu)L1(μ). It is not in general: the one-step bound is kβk\betakβ, and nothing makes kβ<1k\beta<1kβ<1. The argument must instead control the nnn-th iterate. This needs exchanging a conditional expectation with a Stieltjes integral against a random measure, which is the optional projection identity (2.6). It also needs iterated integrals against an integrator with jumps, where the continuous-case identity A(n)=An/n!A^{(n)}=A^n/n!A(n)=An/n! fails and only the inequality A(n−)≤An/n!A^{(n-)}\le A^n/n!A(n−)≤An/n! survives. A second difficulty is measure-theoretic: G(V)tG(V)_tG(V)t​ is defined only almost surely for each fixed ttt, and the L1(μ)L^1(\mu)L1(μ) norm sees the whole path. A version must be chosen with càdlàg paths before the equation even makes sense in L1(μ)L^1(\mu)L1(μ).

Formalization scope

  • Time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​ with a horizon T>0T>0T>0; only [0,T][0,T][0,T] matters. Integrals ∫st\int_s^t∫st​ are over (s,t](s,t](s,t].
  • The integrator is a structure BVIntegrator carrying AAA with its Jordan decomposition A=A+−A−A=A^+-A^-A=A+−A− as data, tied to Mathlib's eVariationOn so that A++A−=∣A∣A^++A^-=|A|A++A−=∣A∣. ∣dA∣=dA++dA−|dA|=dA^++dA^-∣dA∣=dA++dA− are Stieltjes measures of the paths.
  • L1(μ)L^1(\mu)L1(μ) norms are lower integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; membership is joint measurability plus a finite norm.
  • G(V)G(V)G(V) is never a Lean function. Statements quantify over versions: jointly measurable processes WWW, càdlàg on [0,T][0,T][0,T], with Wt=E(ξt∣Ft)W_t=E(\xi_t\mid\mathcal F_t)Wt​=E(ξt​∣Ft​) a.s. for each ttt, where every ξt=∫tTgs(Vs) dAs+Y\xi_t=\int_t^Tg_s(V_s)\,dA_s+Yξt​=∫tT​gs​(Vs​)dAs​+Y is required to be integrable. Picard iterates are chains of such versions.
  • Explicit choices relative to the page: the usual hypotheses and right-continuous integrators (Protter's conventions, p. 778); integrability of every conditional-expectation argument; càdlàg versions; AAA nondecreasing in milestones 3–7, as in the proof; in (2.6), C0≥0C_0\ge0C0​≥0 with C0−=0C_{0-}=0C0−​=0, an [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued version of E(H∣Ft)E(H\mid\mathcal F_t)E(H∣Ft​) in the positive case, and in the L1L^1L1 case finiteness of E(∣H∣∫a dC)E(|H|\int a\,dC)E(∣H∣∫adC); "semimartingale" expressed by the decomposition (2.9), with the martingale property stated for Mmin⁡(t,T)M_{\min(t,T)}Mmin(t,T)​; G(n)G^{(n)}G(n) in place of the printed GGG in the iterate bound.
  • A formalization that lets G(V)G(V)G(V) be a conditional expectation of a non-integrable argument (Mathlib returns 000), or that states only existence or only uniqueness, is trivial and is ruled out: both halves are in the goal, and every version carries the integrability of its argument.
  • Reusable infrastructure: optional projection for increasing integrators, càdlàg versions of martingales, iterated Stieltjes integrals and their factorial bounds. Contributions to any of these are welcome, as are proofs of the special case At=tA_t=tAt​=t.

Selected references

  • F. Antonelli, Backward-forward stochastic differential equations, Ann. Appl. Probab. 3(3) (1993) 777–793. doi:10.1214/aoap/1177005363
  • D. Duffie and L. G. Epstein, Stochastic differential utility, Econometrica 60(2) (1992) 353–394. doi:10.2307/2951600
  • E. Pardoux and S. Peng, Adapted solution of a backward stochastic differential equation, Systems Control Lett. 14(1) (1990) 55–61. doi:10.1016/0167-6911(90)90082-6
  • C. Dellacherie and P.-A. Meyer, Probabilities and Potential B, North-Holland, 1982 (Theorem VI.57).
  • P. Protter, Stochastic Integration and Differential Equations, Springer, 1990. doi:10.1007/978-3-662-02619-9
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Residual Life Time at Great Age 1: Every Nondegenerate Limit Law of the Normed Residual Life Time Is of Type Π, Π_γ, Γ_α or Γ_{γ,α}Research Paper

Motivation

A component with a random lifetime XXX that has survived to age ttt still has a random residual life time X−tX - tX−t. Reliability engineering, actuarial science and the statistics of exceedances over high thresholds all ask how the conditional law of X−tX - tX−t given X>tX > tX>t behaves when the age ttt is large. If XXX is exponential, the residual life has the same law at every age (lack of memory). In general it changes with ttt, and the natural question, as in the limit theory of sample maxima, is which laws can arise as limits once the residual life is suitably rescaled and shifted.

A. A. Balkema and L. de Haan answered this question in Residual Life Time at Great Age (The Annals of Probability 2, 1974). The answer — a short list of limit types — later underlies the peaks-over-threshold method of extreme value statistics, where the continuous limit laws reappear as the generalized Pareto family (Pickands, 1975). This mission formalizes the classification theorem of the paper, Theorem 1, together with the steps of its proof in §1.

Setting

Let XXX be a real random variable with distribution function FFF and distribution tail R(x)=1−F(x)=P{X>x}R(x) = 1 - F(x) = P\{X > x\}R(x)=1−F(x)=P{X>x}. Throughout, R(x)>0R(x) > 0R(x)>0 for every xxx (equivalently F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for all xxx), so that the conditioning event {X>t}\{X > t\}{X>t} never has probability zero. The residual life distribution function at age ttt is

Ft(x)=P{X−t≤x∣X>t},(1)F_t(x) = P\{X - t \le x \mid X > t\}, \tag{1}Ft​(x)=P{X−t≤x∣X>t},(1)

which vanishes for x<0x < 0x<0.

A family of distribution functions HtH_tHt​ converges weakly to GGG as t→∞t \to \inftyt→∞ if Ht(x)→G(x)H_t(x) \to G(x)Ht​(x)→G(x) at every continuity point xxx of GGG. A distribution function GGG is nondegenerate if it is not the distribution function of a point mass. GGG is of type KKK if G(x)=K(ax+b)G(x) = K(ax + b)G(x)=K(ax+b) for all xxx, with a>0a > 0a>0 and bbb real.

The limit laws are the following distribution functions, all equal to 000 for x<0x < 0x<0; for x≥0x \ge 0x≥0,

Π(x)=1−e−x,Γα(x)=1−(1+x)−α,\Pi(x) = 1 - e^{-x}, \qquad \Gamma_\alpha(x) = 1 - (1+x)^{-\alpha},Π(x)=1−e−x,Γα​(x)=1−(1+x)−α, Πγ(x)=1−exp⁡(−γ [1+x]),Γγ,α(x)=1−exp⁡(−γ [1+αlog⁡(1+x)]),\Pi_\gamma(x) = 1 - \exp\big(-\gamma\,[1 + x]\big), \qquad \Gamma_{\gamma,\alpha}(x) = 1 - \exp\big(-\gamma\,[1 + \alpha\log(1+x)]\big),Πγ​(x)=1−exp(−γ[1+x]),Γγ,α​(x)=1−exp(−γ[1+αlog(1+x)]),

with α,γ>0\alpha, \gamma > 0α,γ>0 and [a][a][a] the integer part of aaa. The first two are continuous; the last two are discrete, with jumps where 1+x1 + x1+x, respectively 1+αlog⁡(1+x)1 + \alpha\log(1+x)1+αlog(1+x), crosses an integer.

The lemmas of §1 use a second normalization, which shifts XXX instead of X−tX - tX−t:

P(X−b(t)a(t)>x  ∣  X>t)=min⁡(1,R(b(t)+xa(t))R(t))→S(x)weakly,(2–3)P\Big(\frac{X - b(t)}{a(t)} > x \;\Big|\; X > t\Big) = \min\Big(1, \frac{R(b(t) + x a(t))}{R(t)}\Big) \to S(x) \quad \text{weakly}, \tag{2–3}P(a(t)X−b(t)​>x​X>t)=min(1,R(t)R(b(t)+xa(t))​)→S(x)weakly,(2–3)

where 1−S1 - S1−S is a nondegenerate distribution function. The two normalizations differ by b(t)↦b(t)+tb(t) \mapsto b(t) + tb(t)↦b(t)+t.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 796)

If F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for all xxx, a(t)>0a(t) > 0a(t)>0, and

Ft(b(t)+xa(t))→G(x)weakly as t→∞F_t\big(b(t) + x a(t)\big) \to G(x) \quad \text{weakly as } t \to \inftyFt​(b(t)+xa(t))→G(x)weakly as t→∞

for a nondegenerate distribution function GGG, then GGG is of type Π\PiΠ, Πγ\Pi_\gammaΠγ​, Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​ or Γγ,α\Gamma_{\gamma,\alpha}Γγ,α​ for some α,γ>0\alpha, \gamma > 0α,γ>0.

Milestones (§1, pp. 794–797)

  1. Lemma 1. Under (2), for each continuity point yyy of SSS with 0<S(y)<10 < S(y) < 10<S(y)<1 there are A(y)≥1A(y) \ge 1A(y)≥1 and B(y)B(y)B(y) with
S(x) S(y)=S(B(y)+xA(y))whenever S(x)<1.(4)S(x)\,S(y) = S\big(B(y) + xA(y)\big) \quad \text{whenever } S(x) < 1. \tag{4}S(x)S(y)=S(B(y)+xA(y))whenever S(x)<1.(4)
  1. Corollary. S(x)>0S(x) > 0S(x)>0 for all xxx.
  2. Lemma 2. An unbounded non-increasing HHH on (x0,∞)(x_0, \infty)(x0​,∞) that agrees with SSS where S<1S < 1S<1 and solves H(x)H(y)=H(B(y)+xA(y))H(x)H(y) = H(B(y) + xA(y))H(x)H(y)=H(B(y)+xA(y)) agrees with SSS where H<1H < 1H<1.
  3. Case 1 of the proof: if A(y)=1A(y) = 1A(y)=1 for every yyy in the set YYY of continuity points with S(y)<1S(y) < 1S(y)<1, then 1−S1 - S1−S is of type Π\PiΠ or Πγ\Pi_\gammaΠγ​.
  4. The commutation identity of Case 2: B(y1)+A(y1)B(y2)=B(y2)+A(y2)B(y1)B(y_1) + A(y_1)B(y_2) = B(y_2) + A(y_2)B(y_1)B(y1​)+A(y1​)B(y2​)=B(y2​)+A(y2​)B(y1​) for y1,y2∈Yy_1, y_2 \in Yy1​,y2​∈Y.
  5. Case 2 of the proof: if A(y)>1A(y) > 1A(y)>1 for some y∈Yy \in Yy∈Y, then 1−S1 - S1−S is of type Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​ or Γγ,α\Gamma_{\gamma,\alpha}Γγ,α​.
  6. The closing display: each of the four laws G=1−SG = 1 - SG=1−S reproduces itself, min⁡(1,S(B(t)+xA(t))/S(t))=S(x)\min\big(1, S(B(t) + xA(t))/S(t)\big) = S(x)min(1,S(B(t)+xA(t))/S(t))=S(x) for every t>0t > 0t>0 and suitable A(t)>0A(t) > 0A(t)>0, B(t)B(t)B(t); so all four types occur as limits.

Significance

Theorem 1 is to residual lives what the extremal types theorem of Fisher–Tippett and Gnedenko is to maxima: it reduces the asymptotic analysis of the residual life to a four-type list, and with it the question of domains of attraction (§§2–3 of the paper) becomes well posed. The continuous types Π\PiΠ and Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​ are, after a change of parameters, the exponential and Pareto members of the generalized Pareto family used to model exceedances over high thresholds; the discrete types Πγ\Pi_\gammaΠγ​ and Γγ,α\Gamma_{\gamma,\alpha}Γγ,α​ show that once a shift is allowed, lattice-like tails produce limits with atoms, a phenomenon that the scale-only Theorem 2 excludes.

The theorem has been proved since 1974. It is not formalized in any proof assistant known to us, and Mathlib has neither weak convergence of distribution functions in the form used here, nor types, nor the residual-life limit laws. A formal development provides these objects, the functional equation (4) and its solution on a half line, and a checked proof that the four-type list is exactly right — including the discrete types, which are easy to lose in an informal treatment.

Difficulty

The obvious approach is to pass to the limit in the identity relating the residual lives at ages ttt and b(t)b(t)b(t), obtaining a Cauchy-type functional equation for SSS, and to solve it. Two features block a direct application of the classical solution. First, the limit is a minimum with 111, so convergence carries no information on the half line where S=1S = 1S=1: equation (4) holds only where S(x)<1S(x) < 1S(x)<1, and it does not determine SSS by itself (the paper exhibits S0(x)=e−xS_0(x) = e^{-x}S0​(x)=e−x for x≥1x \ge 1x≥1, S0=1S_0 = 1S0​=1 for x<1x < 1x<1, which satisfies (4) with A=1A = 1A=1, B(y)=yB(y) = yB(y)=y, yet 1−S01 - S_01−S0​ is of no limit type); Lemma 2 is needed to recover SSS where S=1S = 1S=1. Second, the solutions of the shifted equation φ(x)+φ(y)=φ(B(y)+x)\varphi(x) + \varphi(y) = \varphi(B(y) + x)φ(x)+φ(y)=φ(B(y)+x) for a monotone φ\varphiφ are not only linear: a periodic perturbation is possible, and its analysis produces the discrete laws through the integer part. A proof that assumes continuity of SSS misses Πγ\Pi_\gammaΠγ​ and Γγ,α\Gamma_{\gamma,\alpha}Γγ,α​.

Formalization scope

The law of XXX is a probability measure μ\muμ on R\mathbb RR; R(x)=μ((x,∞))R(x) = \mu((x,\infty))R(x)=μ((x,∞)) and Ft(x)=μ((t,t+x])/μ((t,∞))F_t(x) = \mu((t, t+x])/\mu((t,\infty))Ft​(x)=μ((t,t+x])/μ((t,∞)), with probabilities taken as real numbers. Every statement assumes μ((x,∞))>0\mu((x,\infty)) > 0μ((x,∞))>0 for all xxx, the paper's standing assumption; Lean's division by zero would otherwise make the conditional laws meaningless. The normalizations satisfy a(t)>0a(t) > 0a(t)>0 for all ttt (only large ttt matter). A limit distribution function is the distribution function of a probability measure ν\nuν on R\mathbb RR, so no mass escapes to ±∞\pm\infty±∞; nondegenerate means ν\nuν is not a point mass; the limit tail is S(x)=ν((x,∞))S(x) = \nu((x,\infty))S(x)=ν((x,∞)), which is right-continuous. Weak convergence is convergence at the continuity points of the limit and nowhere else. The integer part is Int.floor. Each limit law is defined to be 000 for x<0x < 0x<0.

Theorem 1 is stated in the normalization (1) of the theorem, the lemmas and cases in the normalization (2) of §1, as printed. Theorem 1 names its fourth family Γα,γ\Gamma_{\alpha,\gamma}Γα,γ​; it is the introduction's Γγ,α\Gamma_{\gamma,\alpha}Γγ,α​. In Lemma 2 the left endpoint x0x_0x0​ may be −∞-\infty−∞ (Case 1 applies the lemma on the whole line), and the condition that B(y)+xA(y)B(y) + xA(y)B(y)+xA(y) lies in (x0,∞)(x_0, \infty)(x0​,∞) for x>x0x > x_0x>x0​ is written out, since (8) presupposes it. "A pair (A(y),B(y))(A(y), B(y))(A(y),B(y)) in Lemma 1" and "A(y)=1A(y) = 1A(y)=1", "A(y)>1A(y) > 1A(y)>1" are stated through pairs satisfying (4); the proof of Lemma 1 shows the pair is unique. The commutation identity is posed without the Case 2 assumption, which its derivation does not use. No hypothesis of the paper is dropped and none is added beyond these readings.

The statement is not trivialized by dropping nondegeneracy (a point-mass limit is always attainable), by requiring convergence at every xxx (which would exclude the discrete types), or by defining the limit laws without the integer part (which would turn the discrete types into continuous ones); the formalization does none of these.

A complete development needs: the residual-life distribution function and the normed tail, weak convergence of distribution functions, types, the four limit laws; then monotone solutions of Cauchy-type functional equations on half lines, with their periodic perturbations. The functional-equation results and the closing-display computations are reusable beyond this mission, for instance for the scale-only Theorem 2 and for the domain-of-attraction results of §§2–3. Proofs of any milestone, of alternative routes to Theorem 1, and of the closing display for each family separately are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. A. Balkema, L. de Haan, Residual Life Time at Great Age, The Annals of Probability 2 (1974), no. 5, 792–804. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996548 (the source of every statement of this mission: the published article).
  • B. Gnedenko, Sur la distribution limite du terme maximum d'une série aléatoire, Annals of Mathematics 44 (1943), 423–453. https://doi.org/10.2307/1968974
  • J. Pickands III, Statistical Inference Using Extreme Order Statistics, The Annals of Statistics 3 (1975), 119–131. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176343003
  • W. Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. II, Wiley, 1966.
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Simulation Output Analysis Using Standardized Time Series 1: For Every g in the Class 𝓜, (Ȳₙ(1) − μ)/g(Ȳₙ) ⇒ B(1)/g(B) Under the FCLT (2.1)Research Paper

Motivation

A discrete-event simulation of a queue, an inventory system or a communication network produces an output process Y={Y(t):t≥0}Y = \{Y(t) : t \ge 0\}Y={Y(t):t≥0}, and the quantity of interest is usually its steady-state mean μ\muμ, the long-run average of YYY. The natural estimator is the time average Yˉn(1)=1n∫0nY(s) ds\bar Y_n(1) = \frac1n\int_0^n Y(s)\,dsYˉn​(1)=n1​∫0n​Y(s)ds of a run of length nnn. A confidence interval for μ\muμ needs the scale of the fluctuations of Yˉn(1)\bar Y_n(1)Yˉn​(1), the variance constant σ2\sigma^2σ2 of the central limit theorem n1/2(Yˉn(1)−μ)⇒σN(0,1)n^{1/2}(\bar Y_n(1) - \mu) \Rightarrow \sigma N(0,1)n1/2(Yˉn​(1)−μ)⇒σN(0,1). For correlated simulation output, σ2\sigma^2σ2 is a sum of autocovariances at all lags and is hard to estimate consistently.

The method of standardized time series (STS), introduced by Schruben (Schruben 1983), avoids estimating σ\sigmaσ: it divides the centred time average by a functional of the whole observed path that scales like σ\sigmaσ, so that σ\sigmaσ cancels. Batch means, the standardized sum, and the standardized maximum are all of this form.

Glynn and Iglehart (Glynn & Iglehart 1990) put the method on a general footing. They require only a functional central limit theorem (FCLT) for YYY, and they identify an abstract class M\mathcal MM of standardizing functionals for which the cancellation works. This mission formalizes their basic limit theorem, Theorem 2.4, and the four claims of its proof. Two companion results of §2, display (2.2) and the weak law Yˉn(1)⇒μ\bar Y_n(1) \Rightarrow \muYˉn​(1)⇒μ, are included as further targets.

Setting

C[0,1]C[0,1]C[0,1] is the space of continuous real functions on [0,1][0,1][0,1] with the uniform norm and its Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra; k∈C[0,1]k \in C[0,1]k∈C[0,1] is the identity path k(t)=tk(t) = tk(t)=t. For g:C[0,1]→Rg : C[0,1] \to \mathbb Rg:C[0,1]→R, D(g)D(g)D(g) is the discontinuity set of ggg, the set of xxx at which ggg is not continuous. A standard Brownian motion BBB on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal F, P)(Ω,F,P) is a random element of C[0,1]C[0,1]C[0,1] with Gaussian finite-dimensional laws, B(0)=0B(0) = 0B(0)=0 and Cov⁡(B(s),B(t))=min⁡(s,t)\operatorname{Cov}(B(s), B(t)) = \min(s,t)Cov(B(s),B(t))=min(s,t).

The output YYY is a real-valued measurable process. Its scaled partial-integral process and its centred, rescaled version are

Yˉn(t)=1n∫0ntY(s) ds,Xn(t)=n1/2(Yˉn(t)−μt),0≤t≤1.\bar Y_n(t) = \frac1n\int_0^{nt} Y(s)\,ds, \qquad X_n(t) = n^{1/2}\bigl(\bar Y_n(t) - \mu t\bigr), \qquad 0 \le t \le 1 .Yˉn​(t)=n1​∫0nt​Y(s)ds,Xn​(t)=n1/2(Yˉn​(t)−μt),0≤t≤1.

Assumption (2.1) asks for finite constants μ\muμ and σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0 such that Xn⇒σBX_n \Rightarrow \sigma BXn​⇒σB as n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞, weak convergence of random elements of C[0,1]C[0,1]C[0,1]. It holds for ϕ\phiϕ-mixing, strongly mixing, associated and regenerative output processes, among others.

The class M\mathcal MM of (2.3) consists of the measurable g:C[0,1]→Rg : C[0,1] \to \mathbb Rg:C[0,1]→R with

  1. g(αx)=αg(x)g(\alpha x) = \alpha g(x)g(αx)=αg(x) for α>0\alpha > 0α>0 (positive homogeneity);
  2. g(x−βk)=g(x)g(x - \beta k) = g(x)g(x−βk)=g(x) for β∈R\beta \in \mathbb Rβ∈R (invariance under subtracting a linear drift);
  3. P{g(B)>0}=1P\{g(B) > 0\} = 1P{g(B)>0}=1;
  4. P{B∈D(g)}=0P\{B \in D(g)\} = 0P{B∈D(g)}=0.

The proof uses the auxiliary map h(x)=x(1)/g(x)h(x) = x(1)/g(x)h(x)=x(1)/g(x) for g(x)≠0g(x) \ne 0g(x)=0 and h(x)=0h(x) = 0h(x)=0 otherwise.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.4

For every g∈Mg \in \mathcal Mg∈M, under Assumption (2.1),

Yˉn(1)−μg(Yˉn)⇒B(1)g(B)(n→∞).(2.5)\frac{\bar Y_n(1) - \mu}{g(\bar Y_n)} \Rightarrow \frac{B(1)}{g(B)} \qquad (n \to \infty). \tag{2.5}g(Yˉn​)Yˉn​(1)−μ​⇒g(B)B(1)​(n→∞).(2.5)

Milestones: the four claims of the proof (p. 3)

  1. P{σB∈D(h)}=0P\{\sigma B \in D(h)\} = 0P{σB∈D(h)}=0.
  2. h(Xn)⇒h(σB)h(X_n) \Rightarrow h(\sigma B)h(Xn​)⇒h(σB).
  3. h(σB)=B(1)/g(B)h(\sigma B) = B(1)/g(B)h(σB)=B(1)/g(B), by (2.3i).
  4. h(Xn)=(Yˉn(1)−μ)/g(Yˉn)h(X_n) = (\bar Y_n(1) - \mu)/g(\bar Y_n)h(Xn​)=(Yˉn​(1)−μ)/g(Yˉn​) for n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, by (2.3i) and (2.3ii).

Companions

n1/2(Yˉn(1)−μ)⇒σB(1)(2.2)n^{1/2}\bigl(\bar Y_n(1) - \mu\bigr) \Rightarrow \sigma B(1) \tag{2.2}n1/2(Yˉn​(1)−μ)⇒σB(1)(2.2)

and Yˉn(1)⇒μ\bar Y_n(1) \Rightarrow \muYˉn​(1)⇒μ.

Significance

Theorem 2.4 is the limit theorem behind every STS confidence interval. The limit B(1)/g(B)B(1)/g(B)B(1)/g(B) is free of σ\sigmaσ and of the output process, so with zzz chosen so that P{−z≤B(1)/g(B)≤z}P\{-z \le B(1)/g(B) \le z\}P{−z≤B(1)/g(B)≤z} equals a prescribed level, the interval Yˉn(1)±z g(Yˉn)\bar Y_n(1) \pm z\,g(\bar Y_n)Yˉn​(1)±zg(Yˉn​) has asymptotically exact coverage for μ\muμ. Each choice of g∈Mg \in \mathcal Mg∈M gives a method: batch means with a fixed number of batches, Schruben's standardized sum, the standardized maximum. The later sections of the paper compare the lengths of these intervals with those of consistent-estimation intervals, and those comparisons start from Theorem 2.4.

The theorem is classical and its proof is short on paper. What is missing is a machine-checked version. The formal proof needs a continuous mapping theorem for maps that are continuous only almost surely at the limit, on the non-locally-compact space C[0,1]C[0,1]C[0,1]; Mathlib has the version for continuous maps only. A formal Theorem 2.4 also makes the class M\mathcal MM and the C[0,1]-valued FCLT available for the other results of the paper, the expected-length lower bound and its non-attainment, which are formalized in sibling missions.

Difficulty

The algebra (milestones 3 and 4) is elementary. The difficulty is the continuous-mapping step. The map hhh is in general not continuous: it can be discontinuous wherever ggg is and wherever ggg vanishes, and ggg itself may be discontinuous on a large set (the standardized maximum is). The continuous mapping theorem for continuous maps does not apply. One needs its almost-sure form: if Xn⇒XX_n \Rightarrow XXn​⇒X and P{X∈D(h)}=0P\{X \in D(h)\} = 0P{X∈D(h)}=0, then h(Xn)⇒h(X)h(X_n) \Rightarrow h(X)h(Xn​)⇒h(X). The class M\mathcal MM controls D(g)D(g)D(g) only along the law of BBB, and the hypothesis of the almost-sure theorem is about D(h)D(h)D(h) at the scaled limit σB\sigma BσB, so the conditions (2.3iii) and (2.3iv) have to be transported from BBB to σB\sigma BσB and from ggg to hhh.

Formalization scope

C[0,1]C[0,1]C[0,1] is C(unitInterval, ℝ) with its sup-norm topology; the Borel MeasurableSpace instance is declared in the mission's definition file, since Mathlib has none at this commit. Weak convergence is Mathlib's TendstoInDistribution, for the C[0,1]C[0,1]C[0,1]-valued FCLT and for the real-valued conclusions. The standard Brownian motion is a measurable C[0,1]C[0,1]C[0,1]-valued map whose coordinates agree, for every ω\omegaω, with a process satisfying Mathlib's IsBrownianReal. D(g)D(g)D(g) is the set of points where ContinuousAt g fails, and P{B∈D(g)}P\{B \in D(g)\}P{B∈D(g)} is an outer measure, so no measurability of D(g)D(g)D(g) is assumed.

Yˉn\bar Y_nYˉn​ is a C[0,1]C[0,1]C[0,1]-valued parameter pinned pointwise by Yˉn(t)=1n∫0ntY(s) ds\bar Y_n(t) = \frac1n\int_0^{nt}Y(s)\,dsYˉn​(t)=n1​∫0nt​Y(s)ds, so it is determined by YYY. Assumption (2.1) carries joint measurability of YYY and local integrability of each path; the second is implicit in the paper and makes Yˉn\bar Y_nYˉn​ defined. The index nnn runs over N\mathbb NN, and milestone 4 assumes n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 because (2.3i) is applied with α=n1/2\alpha = n^{1/2}α=n1/2. Real division by zero returns 000 in Lean, which agrees with the paper's convention for hhh; it matters only on events of probability zero in the limit. Condition (2.3iii) is printed "P{g(b)>0}=1P\{g(b) > 0\} = 1P{g(b)>0}=1" and is read as P{g(B)>0}=1P\{g(B) > 0\} = 1P{g(B)>0}=1.

Condition (2.3iv) is stated with the discontinuity set, not as continuity of ggg: requiring ggg continuous everywhere would exclude the standardized maximum of Example 3.10 and would make the continuous-mapping step trivial. The goal assumes nothing about hhh, D(h)D(h)D(h) or any mapping theorem; these appear only in the milestones.

Contributions welcome: the almost-sure continuous mapping theorem for TendstoInDistribution on a metric space (reusable well beyond this mission), the cone property of D(g)D(g)D(g) under positive homogeneity, and evaluation at a point as a continuous map on C[0,1]C[0,1]C[0,1]. Mathlib does not yet construct a Brownian motion with continuous paths as a C[0,1]C[0,1]C[0,1]-valued random element, so the hypotheses cannot be instantiated inside Lean; this is a hypothesis on BBB, not a vacuity.

Selected references

  • P. W. Glynn and D. L. Iglehart, Simulation output analysis using standardized time series, Mathematics of Operations Research 15(1):1–16, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.15.1.1
  • L. Schruben, Confidence interval estimation using standardized time series, Operations Research 31(6):1090–1108, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.31.6.1090
  • P. Billingsley, Convergence of Probability Measures, Wiley, 1968 (Theorem 5.1, the continuous mapping theorem).
  • K. L. Chung, A Course in Probability Theory, 2nd ed., Academic Press, 1974 (p. 93, converging-together lemma).
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Efficient Monte Carlo Procedures for Generating Points Uniformly Distributed over Bounded Regions 2: Geometric Convergence Rate of the Random Directions Algorithm to UniformResearch Paper

Motivation

Generating points uniformly distributed over a bounded region S⊆RnS\subseteq\mathbb R^nS⊆Rn is a basic subroutine in Monte Carlo integration, in estimating the volume of a region, in randomized search for optimization, and in identifying redundant constraints of mathematical programs. When SSS is given only implicitly, for instance by a system of inequalities, the classical methods break down in high dimension: transformation methods need a tractable description of SSS, and rejection from an enclosing box or ball accepts a fraction of proposals that decays exponentially with nnn.

Smith (Oper. Res. 32(6), 1984) studied a family of Markov chain methods, mixing algorithms, that avoid rejection altogether. The best known member is the Random Directions Algorithm, now called hit-and-run: from the current point, pick a direction uniformly at random and move to a uniformly random point of SSS on the line through the current point in that direction. Boneh and Golan (1979) proposed it for constraint identification and conjectured, without proof, that it generates uniform points; Smith (1980, 1984) proved asymptotic uniformity, and Section 3 of the 1984 paper gives an explicit geometric convergence rate. This mission targets that rate, Theorem 3.

Later work, in particular Lovász (Math. Program. 86, 1999) and Lovász and Vempala (SIAM J. Comput. 35, 2006), proved polynomial mixing bounds for hit-and-run on convex bodies. Smith's bound is exponential in nnn, but it holds for every open bounded region, convex or not, and from every starting point.

Setting

Write VVV for nnn-dimensional Lebesgue measure (content) on Rn\mathbb R^nRn and ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ for the Euclidean norm. Let S⊆RnS\subseteq\mathbb R^nS⊆Rn be open, bounded and nonempty.

  • The uniform distribution over SSS is λ(A)=V(A∩S)/V(S)\lambda(A)=V(A\cap S)/V(S)λ(A)=V(A∩S)/V(S).
  • For x∈Sx\in Sx∈S and a unit vector ddd, the line set is L=S∩{x+td:t∈R}L=S\cap\{x+td:t\in\mathbb R\}L=S∩{x+td:t∈R}, and its length is ℓ(x,d)=Leb1{t:x+td∈S}\ell(x,d)=\mathrm{Leb}_1\{t: x+td\in S\}ℓ(x,d)=Leb1​{t:x+td∈S}. For convex SSS this is the chord length; in general LLL may consist of many segments.
  • One step of the Random Directions Algorithm from x∈Sx\in Sx∈S: draw ddd uniformly on the unit sphere {d:∥d∥=1}\{d:\|d\|=1\}{d:∥d∥=1}, then draw Xi+1X_{i+1}Xi+1​ uniformly on LLL. The transition kernel is
P(A∣x)=∫Leb1{t:x+td∈S∩A}ℓ(x,d) σ(dd),P(A\mid x)=\int \frac{\mathrm{Leb}_1\{t:x+td\in S\cap A\}}{\ell(x,d)}\,\sigma(\mathrm dd),P(A∣x)=∫ℓ(x,d)Leb1​{t:x+td∈S∩A}​σ(dd),

with σ\sigmaσ the normalized surface measure of the sphere, and Pm(A∣x)=P(Xm∈A∣X0=x)P^m(A\mid x)=P(X_m\in A\mid X_0=x)Pm(A∣x)=P(Xm​∈A∣X0​=x) is its mmm-step iterate.

  • R⋆R^\starR⋆ is the radius of the smallest ball containing SSS, Vn(r)V_n(r)Vn​(r) the volume of a ball of radius rrr, and
γ=V(S)Vn(R⋆)∈(0,1]\gamma=\frac{V(S)}{V_n(R^\star)}\in(0,1]γ=Vn​(R⋆)V(S)​∈(0,1]

the fraction of its smallest enclosing ball that SSS fills.

  • Sn(r)=nVn(1)rn−1S_n(r)=nV_n(1)r^{n-1}Sn​(r)=nVn​(1)rn−1 is the surface area of a sphere of radius rrr, and d=diam⁡Sd=\operatorname{diam}Sd=diamS.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 1304)

For n≥2n\ge2n≥2, every x∈Sx\in Sx∈S, every measurable A⊆SA\subseteq SA⊆S and every m≥1m\ge1m≥1,

∣P(Xm∈A∣X0=x)−λ(A)∣<(1−γn 2n−1)m−1.\bigl|P(X_m\in A\mid X_0=x)-\lambda(A)\bigr|<\Bigl(1-\frac{\gamma}{n\,2^{n-1}}\Bigr)^{m-1}.​P(Xm​∈A∣X0​=x)−λ(A)​<(1−n2n−1γ​)m−1.

The constant is the paper's. The bound is uniform in the starting point and in AAA, and it depends on SSS only through nnn and γ\gammaγ.

Milestones (the steps of the paper's proof, in order)

  1. Lemma 1 for this algorithm: λ\lambdaλ is stationary, λ(A)=∫SP(A∣x) λ(dx)\lambda(A)=\int_S P(A\mid x)\,\lambda(\mathrm dx)λ(A)=∫S​P(A∣x)λ(dx).
  2. Doob's Case (b) bound: for a chain with stationary law π\piπ and a minorization P(A∣x)≥δ φ(A∩C)P(A\mid x)\ge\delta\,\varphi(A\cap C)P(A∣x)≥δφ(A∩C) on a closed set CCC that carries π\piπ, ∣Pm(A∣x)−π(A)∣≤(1−δφ(C))m−1|P^m(A\mid x)-\pi(A)|\le(1-\delta\varphi(C))^{m-1}∣Pm(A∣x)−π(A)∣≤(1−δφ(C))m−1.
  3. Density formula: P(A∣x)=∫Af(y∣x) dyP(A\mid x)=\int_A f(y\mid x)\,\mathrm dyP(A∣x)=∫A​f(y∣x)dy with f(y∣x)=2/(Sn(∥y−x∥) ℓ(x,y))f(y\mid x)=2/\bigl(S_n(\|y-x\|)\,\ell(x,y)\bigr)f(y∣x)=2/(Sn​(∥y−x∥)ℓ(x,y)).
  4. Density lower bound: f(y∣x)>δ=2/(d Sn(d))f(y\mid x)>\delta=2/(d\,S_n(d))f(y∣x)>δ=2/(dSn​(d)) for all distinct x,y∈Sx,y\in Sx,y∈S when n≥2n\ge2n≥2.
  5. Constant comparison: δ V(S)≥γ/(n2n−1)\delta\,V(S)\ge\gamma/(n2^{n-1})δV(S)≥γ/(n2n−1).

Significance

The result. Theorems 1 and 2 of the paper (the companion mission) establish only that the chain converges to λ\lambdaλ. Theorem 3 makes this quantitative: the deviation from uniformity decays geometrically, at a rate computable from the dimension and the shape ratio γ\gammaγ alone. It shows which features of a region govern convergence, it gives a stopping rule with a guarantee, and it holds for non-convex regions, which the later polynomial-time analyses of hit-and-run do not cover. The paper notes the bound is of practical use only in low dimension; its value lies in being explicit and fully general.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper, but parts of the proof are heuristic: the density is derived by a limit over small cubes, and the step from δ\deltaδ to γ\gammaγ uses a claim about circumscribed spheres that is false as stated (see below). A machine-checked proof would produce, as reusable components, a general-state-space Doeblin bound (no such theorem currently exists on the platform; the existing Doeblin results are finite-state), a measure-theoretic definition of hit-and-run as a Markov kernel, and the polar-coordinates computation of its density. None of these has, to our knowledge, been formalized.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is: the density is bounded below on SSS, so Doeblin's condition holds, so the chain converges geometrically. Each step hides work. The density is not given by the algorithm but must be derived: the algorithm draws a direction and a scalar, and the change of variables from (direction, signed distance) to the endpoint is two-to-one and carries the Jacobian ∥y−x∥n−1\|y-x\|^{n-1}∥y−x∥n−1, which is where SnS_nSn​ and the factor 2 come from. The Doeblin step needs a stationary law and the fact that the chain started in SSS never leaves SSS. For non-convex SSS, the paper's "diameter along the ray" must be replaced by the measure of the line set, and the maximal chord does not bound the distance ∥y−x∥\|y-x\|∥y−x∥; the diameter of SSS is needed instead. Finally, the paper's assertion that the ball of radius d/2d/2d/2 circumscribes SSS fails already for an equilateral triangle, so the final comparison must go through the smallest enclosing ball's radius R⋆≥d/2R^\star\ge d/2R⋆≥d/2.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) with Lebesgue measure. The region is a set S with IsOpen S and Bornology.IsBounded S; boundedness is the paper's standing assumption ("bounded regions").
  • The transition law is a Mathlib ProbabilityTheory.Kernel built operationally from the algorithm: the uniform law on the line set, integrated against the normalized surface measure of the unit sphere (Mathlib's Measure.toSphere, divided by its total mass nVn(1)nV_n(1)nVn​(1)). Off SSS the kernel is the identity, which the chain started in SSS never uses. The mmm-step law is the published MarkovChainCLT.iterKernel.
  • λ\lambdaλ is Lebesgue measure restricted to SSS divided by V(S)V(S)V(S). γ\gammaγ uses the infimum of radii of closed balls containing SSS; the ball is not a free parameter. δ=2/(d Sn(d))\delta=2/(d\,S_n(d))δ=2/(dSn​(d)) is defined from d=diam⁡Sd=\operatorname{diam}Sd=diamS, not assumed.
  • Deviations from the printed statement. (i) The goal assumes n≥2n\ge2n≥2: for n=1n=1n=1 the strict inequality is false (on an interval X1X_1X1​ is already uniform and γ=1\gamma=1γ=1, so both sides vanish for m≥2m\ge2m≥2). (ii) The density uses the line-set length ℓ(x,y)\ell(x,y)ℓ(x,y) instead of "the diameter of SSS along the ray", which coincides for convex SSS. (iii) The paper's d=max⁡x,yd(x,y)d=\max_{x,y}d(x,y)d=maxx,y​d(x,y) is taken as diam⁡S\operatorname{diam}SdiamS. (iv) The Doob step is stated with a kernel-form minorization rather than a lower bound on the density of the absolutely continuous part, which it is implied by, and with CCC a closed set carrying the stationary law, which is what C=SC=SC=S means inside Rn\mathbb R^nRn. (v) The final comparison is stated as δV(S)≥γ/(n2n−1)\delta V(S)\ge\gamma/(n2^{n-1})δV(S)≥γ/(n2n−1), the true inequality behind the paper's false circumscribed-sphere claim. No statement weakens the paper's constant.
  • Ruled out. The kernel is not defined through the density formula (which would make milestone 3 definitional and remove the algorithm from the goal), and neither stationarity nor a minorization is a hypothesis of the goal: Theorem 3 assumes only conditions on nnn, SSS, xxx, AAA and mmm.
  • Contributions welcome: the general Doeblin bound, the polar-coordinates density computation (useful for any line-sampling algorithm), and proofs that the kernel is Markov on SSS and reversible with respect to λ\lambdaλ.

Selected references

  • R. L. Smith, Efficient Monte Carlo Procedures for Generating Points Uniformly Distributed over Bounded Regions, Operations Research 32(6):1296–1308, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.32.6.1296
  • A. Boneh and A. Golan, Constraints' redundancy and feasible region boundedness by random feasible point generator (RFPG), Third European Congress on Operations Research (EURO III), Amsterdam, 1979.
  • J. L. Doob, Stochastic Processes, Wiley, 1953 (Case (b), p. 197).
  • L. Lovász, Hit-and-run mixes fast, Mathematical Programming 86:443–461, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1007/s101070050099
  • L. Lovász and S. Vempala, Hit-and-run from a corner, SIAM Journal on Computing 35(4):985–1005, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1137/S009753970544727X
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism DesignOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Auction Design: Giving the Object to a Bidder with the Highest Priority Level c̄ᵢ(tᵢ) ≥ t₀ and Charging (6.8) Is an Optimal Auction MechanismResearch Paper

Motivation

A seller with one indivisible object must decide whether to keep it or transfer it to one of several bidders whose values she does not observe. The allocation and the payment rule affect what bidders choose to report. Myerson's 1981 paper identifies a revenue-maximizing rule when bidders' private value estimates are independent, their densities are positive, and their valuations may be revised after learning other bidders' information. It covers value distributions for which the usual virtual-value rule is not monotone, by replacing each bidder's virtual value with an ironed priority level.

The question matters to auction design because a pointwise revenue-maximizing assignment can reward a bidder for understating a value. The seller must maximize expected utility subject to both incentive compatibility and each bidder's ability to decline participation. The paper's main theorem gives a specific allocation and payment pair that meets those constraints and attains the maximum. The result is proved in the source; this mission asks for a machine-checked formalization of it.

Setting

There is a finite nonempty set NNN of bidders and one seller. Bidder iii has a value estimate tit_iti​ in a finite interval [ai,bi][a_i,b_i][ai​,bi​], where ai<bia_i<b_iai​<bi​; endpoints may be negative and may differ between bidders. The continuous density fif_ifi​ is strictly positive on that interval and has total integral one. The bidders' estimates are independent, so a profile t=(ti)i∈Nt=(t_i)_{i\in N}t=(ti​)i∈N​ has density f(t)=∏ifi(ti)f(t)=\prod_i f_i(t_i)f(t)=∏i​fi​(ti​) on T=∏i[ai,bi]T=\prod_i[a_i,b_i]T=∏i​[ai​,bi​]. Write Fi(s)=∫aisfi(u) duF_i(s)=\int_{a_i}^{s}f_i(u)\,duFi​(s)=∫ai​s​fi​(u)du for the distribution function. The seller's known value for keeping the object is t0t_0t0​.

A revision effect ej(tj)e_j(t_j)ej​(tj​) describes the change in everyone else's valuation after bidder jjj's estimate becomes known. Bidder iii's revised value is vi(t)=ti+∑j≠iej(tj)v_i(t)=t_i+\sum_{j\ne i}e_j(t_j)vi​(t)=ti​+∑j=i​ej​(tj​), while the seller's is v0(t)=t0+∑jej(tj)v_0(t)=t_0+\sum_j e_j(t_j)v0​(t)=t0​+∑j​ej​(tj​). A direct mechanism assigns each profile an allocation probability pi(t)p_i(t)pi​(t) and expected payment xi(t)x_i(t)xi​(t) for each bidder. Payments may be negative and need not vanish when a bidder loses. Its feasibility conditions say that allocation probabilities are nonnegative and sum to at most one, each bidder's interim expected utility is nonnegative at every possible value, and truthful reporting yields at least as much interim utility as any other report. The seller maximizes her expected utility over all feasible mechanisms.

The virtual value is ci(s)=s−ei(s)−(1−Fi(s))/fi(s)c_i(s)=s-e_i(s)-(1-F_i(s))/f_i(s)ci​(s)=s−ei​(s)−(1−Fi​(s))/fi​(s). In the general case it need not increase with sss. Myerson transforms cic_ici​ through the quantile q=Fi(s)q=F_i(s)q=Fi​(s): hi(q)=ci(Fi−1(q))h_i(q)=c_i(F_i^{-1}(q))hi​(q)=ci​(Fi−1​(q)), Hi(q)=∫0qhi(r) drH_i(q)=\int_0^q h_i(r)\,drHi​(q)=∫0q​hi​(r)dr, and GiG_iGi​ is the convex envelope of HiH_iHi​ on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. The slope gig_igi​ of GiG_iGi​, extended across kinks, gives the ironed priority cˉi(s)=gi(Fi(s))\bar c_i(s)=g_i(F_i(s))cˉi​(s)=gi​(Fi​(s)). At profile ttt, the winning set M(t)M(t)M(t) contains exactly those bidders whose priority is maximal and at least t0t_0t0​.

Formalization targets

The goal is Myerson's §6 theorem. The proposed rule shares the object equally among bidders in M(t)M(t)M(t), or keeps it when M(t)M(t)M(t) is empty, and charges each bidder the envelope payment:

pˉi(t)={∣M(t)∣−1,i∈M(t),0,i∉M(t),xˉi(t)=pˉi(t)vi(t)−∫aitipˉi(t−i,s) ds.\bar p_i(t)=\begin{cases}|M(t)|^{-1},&i\in M(t),\\0,&i\notin M(t),\end{cases} \qquad \bar x_i(t)=\bar p_i(t)v_i(t)-\int_{a_i}^{t_i}\bar p_i(t_{-i},s)\,ds.pˉ​i​(t)={∣M(t)∣−1,0,​i∈M(t),i∈/M(t),​xˉi​(t)=pˉ​i​(t)vi​(t)−∫ai​ti​​pˉ​i​(t−i​,s)ds.

The target asserts that (pˉ,xˉ)(\bar p,\bar x)(pˉ​,xˉ) is feasible and that every feasible (p,x)(p,x)(p,x) has seller utility no greater than that of (pˉ,xˉ)(\bar p,\bar x)(pˉ​,xˉ). The milestone list follows the paper's reduction: Lemma 2 characterizes feasible direct mechanisms by a monotone interim allocation rule and an envelope identity; equation (4.12) rewrites seller utility using virtual values; Lemma 3 turns maximization of virtual surplus into optimality. Equations (6.9)–(6.13) compare virtual and ironed priorities and establish the optimality and monotonicity of the proposed allocation.

Significance

The theorem specifies both who receives the object and how payments are computed, including irregular distributions and bidder-specific supports. The ironed priorities preserve incentives while retaining the seller's maximal expected utility. Equation (4.12) also gives the revenue-equivalence consequence: once the allocation rule and each lowest-type interim utility are fixed, expected seller utility is fixed.

A formal proof would connect several reusable results: product distributions with bidder-specific densities, interim incentive constraints, an envelope characterization, virtual-surplus accounting, and one-dimensional convex ironing. The source theorem and milestones are currently statements to be proved in this development, not existing machine-checked results. Related Börgers auction statements on Prove2Me use a common nonnegative support, at least two bidders, zero revision effects, and zero seller value; they do not provide this general theorem.

Difficulty

Maximizing virtual surplus at each profile is straightforward only if each bidder's virtual value rises with her report. When it falls, the resulting win probability can also fall, violating the incentive constraint. Replacing virtual values by slopes of a convex envelope restores monotonicity, but then the proof must account exactly for the difference between the original and ironed objectives, including flat portions of the envelope. Payments must satisfy the interim envelope identity for every type, while the seller's objective includes both transfers and her value for retaining the object.

Formalization scope

The Lean model uses a finite nonempty bidder type, real-valued reports and payments, one object, independent continuous positive densities normalized on each finite support, and continuous revision effects. The latter regularity is implicit in the paper's assertion that cic_ici​ is continuous. No mean-zero condition on revision effects is imposed: the paper explicitly says its equation (2.9) is unnecessary. One bidder, negative support endpoints, unequal supports, and arbitrary seller value remain allowed.

The profile law is Lebesgue measure restricted to TTT and weighted by the product density. Integrating a function after replacing coordinate iii represents the T−iT_{-i}T−i​ integral, because bidder iii's marginal density has mass one. Mechanisms are total functions, but allocation and incentive conditions quantify over supported profiles and reports. Feasibility explicitly requires integrability of allocations, payments, and their report sections so no undefined Bochner expectation can acquire Lean's default value zero. The convex envelope is the two-point infimum of equation (6.3); its defining set is nonempty and bounded below on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. The slope uses the right derivative below quantile one and the left derivative at one. The theorem requires feasibility of the proposed pair as well as its utility bound, ruling out an empty or unconstrained maximization claim.

The Stieltjes expressions in (6.9), (6.12), and (6.13) are combined into equivalent ordinary-integral comparisons over the profile law. A complete proof needs the one-dimensional envelope theorem, product-measure integration and Fubini results, differentiation of the convex envelope, and a careful endpoint treatment. The definitions of interim utilities and ironing can be reused for related auction models; contributions that establish these analytic components or the listed source lemmas are in scope.

Selected references

  • Roger B. Myerson, Optimal Auction Design, Mathematics of Operations Research 6(1):58–73, 1981. DOI: 10.1287/moor.6.1.58.
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Wait-and-Judge Scenario Optimization 2: Over Generic Sets, P^N{V(x_N) > ε(s_N)} ≤ γ*, the Least ξ(1) over Degree-N Polynomials Feasible for (31)Research Paper

Motivation

A solution of a scenario optimization program is chosen after observing finitely many uncertain constraints. Its future reliability depends on constraints that were not sampled. The usual advance question asks how many samples are needed to make every output reliable. Campi and Garatti instead ask what can be certified after solving the program, when the number of sampled constraints that actually determined its solution is visible. Their wait-and-judge result uses that observed number to set a violation threshold. This mission concerns their extension from convex programs in finite-dimensional spaces to programs over an arbitrary decision set, with no convexity requirement.

The generic extension matters when a dimension bound on the number of influential constraints is unavailable. A decision may be a combinatorial object, a function, or an element of an infinite-dimensional space. The paper allows the support count to range from zero to the full sample size NNN, and its threshold includes the case of NNN support constraints. The paper's Section 6 gives the model and its two probability guarantees.

Setting

Let SSS be a set of decisions. A subset X⊆SX\subseteq SX⊆S is the domain; a real function f:S→Rf:S\to\mathbb Rf:S→R is the cost. An uncertain outcome δ\deltaδ belongs to a measurable space Δ\DeltaΔ with probability measure PPP, and imposes a constraint set Xδ⊆SX_\delta\subseteq SXδ​⊆S. For a sample ω=(δ(1),…,δ(N))\omega=(\delta^{(1)},\ldots,\delta^{(N)})ω=(δ(1),…,δ(N)) of NNN independent outcomes, the program minimizes f(x)f(x)f(x) over x∈Xx\in Xx∈X that belongs to every sampled Xδ(i)X_{\delta^{(i)}}Xδ(i)​. The sample law is PNP^NPN. There is no algebraic or topological condition on the feasible sets or on fff.

A fixed finite sequence of real tie-break functions is minimized lexicographically after the original cost. This selects one solution xN∗(ω)x_N^*(\omega)xN∗​(ω) whenever the program has a selected minimizer. Assumption 1 requires existence and uniqueness for every finite sample, including the empty one. A sampled constraint is a support constraint if removing it changes this selected solution. The number of support constraints is sN∗(ω)s_N^*(\omega)sN∗​(ω). Assumption 2 says that, with probability one, keeping only the support constraints gives the same selected solution. Both assumptions are part of the source's generic setting; they are substantive restrictions even though the sets and cost are otherwise arbitrary.

The violation of a decision is V(x)=P{δ:x∉Xδ}V(x)=P\{\delta:x\notin X_\delta\}V(x)=P{δ:x∈/Xδ​}. Thus V(xN∗)V(x_N^*)V(xN∗​) is the probability that a fresh constraint rejects the computed solution. Since the solution and support count depend on the sample, the wait-and-judge event uses a threshold function ε\varepsilonε evaluated at the observed count, {V(xN∗)>ε(sN∗)}\{V(x_N^*)>\varepsilon(s_N^*)\}{V(xN∗​)>ε(sN∗​)}. For each k≥0k\ge0k≥0, the paper also uses a generalized distribution function Fk(v)=Pk{V(xk∗)≤v, sk∗=k}F_k(v)=P^k\{V(x_k^*)\le v,\ s_k^*=k\}Fk​(v)=Pk{V(xk∗​)≤v, sk∗​=k}. It need not have total mass one.

Formalization targets

Variational bound, Theorem 3

For any N≥1N\ge1N≥1 and any [0,1][0,1][0,1]-valued ε\varepsilonε on {0,…,N}\{0,\ldots,N\}{0,…,N}, let γ∗\gamma^*γ∗ be the infimum of feasible values q(1)q(1)q(1) over real polynomials of degree at most NNN satisfying

q(k)(t)k!≥(Nk)tN−k1[0,1−ε(k))(t),0≤k≤N,0≤t≤1.\frac{q^{(k)}(t)}{k!}\ge {N\choose k}t^{N-k}{\bf1}_{[0,1-\varepsilon(k))}(t),\qquad 0\le k\le N,\quad 0\le t\le1.k!q(k)(t)​≥(kN​)tN−k1[0,1−ε(k))​(t),0≤k≤N,0≤t≤1.

The goal is the paper's Theorem 3:

PN{V(xN∗)>ε(sN∗)}≤γ∗.P^N\{V(x_N^*)>\varepsilon(s_N^*)\}\le\gamma^*.PN{V(xN∗​)>ε(sN∗​)}≤γ∗.

The polynomial value retains the full dependence on the chosen threshold function. The source prints an extraneous ddd in Theorem 3's range for kkk; its generic setting and variational problem use 0≤k≤N0\le k\le N0≤k≤N.

Explicit confidence bound, Theorem 4

For 0<β<10<\beta<10<β<1, the paper's Theorem 4 defines t(k)∈(0,1)t(k)\in(0,1)t(k)∈(0,1) as the unique root of

βN+1∑m=kN(mk)tm−k−(Nk)tN−k=0(0≤k<N).\frac{\beta}{N+1}\sum_{m=k}^{N}{m\choose k}t^{m-k}-{N\choose k}t^{N-k}=0\qquad(0\le k<N).N+1β​m=k∑N​(km​)tm−k−(kN​)tN−k=0(0≤k<N).

With ε(k)=1−t(k)\varepsilon(k)=1-t(k)ε(k)=1−t(k) for k<Nk<Nk<N and ε(N)=1\varepsilon(N)=1ε(N)=1, its conclusion is

PN{V(xN∗)>ε(sN∗)}≤β.P^N\{V(x_N^*)>\varepsilon(s_N^*)\}\le\beta.PN{V(xN∗​)>ε(sN∗​)}≤β.

The terminal value ε(N)=1\varepsilon(N)=1ε(N)=1 is essential because the paper gives examples with sN∗=Ns_N^*=NsN∗​=N and V(xN∗)=1V(x_N^*)=1V(xN∗​)=1.

Significance

Theorem 3 makes the observed support count a usable statistic for assessing the solution's future constraint violation without a dimension bound. Theorem 4 turns it into a certificate at any chosen confidence parameter β\betaβ. The confidence threshold depends on the count seen after the program is solved. These statements do not claim that every generic program satisfies Assumptions 1–2; they say what follows for programs that do.

A formal development must make the statistical objects and the analytic value agree exactly: the solution must come from the feasible set and the fixed tie-break rule, the support count must record changes of solution, and γ∗\gamma^*γ∗ must be the value of the derivative-constrained polynomial problem. The reusable outputs include the generic scenario model, its generalized violation distributions, and the finite moment and dual formulations. The statements are known results of Campi and Garatti; this mission asks for machine-checked proofs of those results and their selected intermediate claims.

Difficulty

The observed support count is data-dependent. Conditioning on sN∗=ks_N^*=ksN∗​=k therefore cannot be treated as conditioning on a fixed subset of kkk sample coordinates. Symmetry across possible support subsets must agree with the selected solution under removal of nonsupport constraints. Assumption 2 is what rules out a degenerate change of solution when only support constraints remain. In the generic setting the possible count grows with NNN, so the distributional characterization has one measure FkF_kFk​ for every k≥0k\ge0k≥0 and moment equations for every sample size. The resulting infinite family must still be related to the finite degree-NNN polynomial value in (31). No convexity or finite-dimensional geometry is available to supply a fixed support bound.

Formalization scope

Lean represents the decision set by an arbitrary type SSS, with a measurable structure only to state the paper's implicit measurability convention. Samples are functions Fin N → Δ with zero-based indices and product law Measure.pi. The published generic violation definition is reused. The domain, constraint family, cost, finite lexicographic tie-break, selected solution, support set, and FkF_kFk​ are defined locally. A Nonempty S instance provides an unused fallback value to the total solution selector; Assumption 1 already implies that SSS is nonempty.

The source takes measurability for granted in a footnote. Here the constraint relation is jointly measurable, every solution map is measurable, and each support event is measurable. These pins assign probabilities to the events the paper uses. The FkF_kFk​ are finite measures on R\mathbb RR, so the paper's Stieltjes integrals are represented as integrals over (ε(k),1](\varepsilon(k),1](ε(k),1] or [0,1][0,1][0,1] against those measures. The polynomial class PN\mathcal P_NPN​ means degree at most NNN, matching the N+1N+1N+1 coefficients in (36). The value γ∗\gamma^*γ∗ is a real infimum; a separate sanity proof gives a feasible polynomial and a zero lower bound on all feasible values.

The goal retains Assumptions 1–2 and states the actual tail bound. It does not assume the moment equations or a favorable value of γ∗\gamma^*γ∗, and no support count is fixed in advance. Contributions toward the distributional decomposition, the moment equations, the finite weak-duality inequality, the polynomial identity, and the explicit-root theorem are within scope.

Selected references

  • M. C. Campi and S. Garatti, Wait-and-judge scenario optimization, Mathematical Programming, 2018. DOI: 10.1007/s10107-016-1056-9. The mission uses the authors' accepted manuscript, especially Sections 6–7 and Theorems 3–4.
7 thms2 active usersReviewed
Discrete GeometryLinear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

On Linear Characterizations of Combinatorial Optimization Problems III: Zero-One and Integer-Programming-Type Problems Have Small Facial DescriptionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many discrete optimization problems can be described by linear inequalities, even when their feasible solutions are integer vectors. A linear description lets one study the geometry of the feasible set and connect combinatorial methods with linear programming. The number of inequalities may be large, so a more basic question is whether each inequality needs coefficients of manageable size. Karp and Papadimitriou separated this coefficient-size issue from the number and computational recognizability of the inequalities in their study of facial descriptions Karp and Papadimitriou, MIT/LCS/TM-154, pp. 3–7.

Their Lemma 1 identifies two common families for which small coefficients suffice: zero-one problems and problems given by an integer linear system. This result establishes a geometric premise used by the paper's later complexity discussion. It says nothing by itself about finding the inequalities efficiently or recognizing whether a proposed inequality belongs to a description. Those computational conditions belong to the paper's subsequent theorems Karp and Papadimitriou, pp. 5–8.

Setting

A combinatorial optimization problem here consists of a set LLL of binary strings, a dimension n(z)n(z)n(z) for each z∈Lz\in Lz∈L, and a set S(z)S(z)S(z) of feasible nonnegative integer vectors of that dimension. The geometric object is the rational convex hull CH(S(z))⊆Qn(z)\mathrm{CH}(S(z))\subseteq\mathbb Q^{n(z)}CH(S(z))⊆Qn(z). The paper calls the rationals RRR in its notation. The values of nnn and SSS outside LLL carry no meaning. A feasible set may be empty; its convex hull is then empty as well Karp and Papadimitriou, Definition 1 and footnote, p. 3.

A facial description FFF is a collection of triples ⟨z,f,g⟩\langle z,f,g\rangle⟨z,f,g⟩, where z∈Lz\in Lz∈L, f∈Zn(z)f\in\mathbb Z^{n(z)}f∈Zn(z), and g∈Zg\in\mathbb Zg∈Z. For every rational vector xxx and every z∈Lz\in Lz∈L, membership in CH(S(z))\mathrm{CH}(S(z))CH(S(z)) must be equivalent to satisfying all inequalities f⋅x≤gf\cdot x\le gf⋅x≤g indexed by triples of FFF with first component zzz. A facial description is small when one polynomial in ∣z∣+n(z)|z|+n(z)∣z∣+n(z) bounds the binary size of every coefficient of every triple in the collection. The collection itself need not be small Karp and Papadimitriou, pp. 4–5.

A zero-one problem has only vectors with entries zero or one in each S(z)S(z)S(z). An integer-programming-type problem gives an integral matrix A(z)A(z)A(z) and right-hand side b(z)b(z)b(z) and takes S(z)S(z)S(z) to be all nonnegative integer vectors satisfying A(z)x≤b(z)A(z)x\le b(z)A(z)x≤b(z). The dimensions of these data depend on zzz. Their total binary coefficient size is controlled by the length of the encoded input Karp and Papadimitriou, pp. 5–6.

Formalization targets

Lemma 1

The mission goal is the complete statement for both classes:

∀C,(ZeroOne⁡(C)∨IPType⁡(C))⟹∃F,FacialDescription⁡(C,F)∧Small⁡(C,F).\forall C,\quad \bigl(\operatorname{ZeroOne}(C)\lor\operatorname{IPType}(C)\bigr) \Longrightarrow \exists F,\quad \operatorname{FacialDescription}(C,F)\land\operatorname{Small}(C,F).∀C,(ZeroOne(C)∨IPType(C))⟹∃F,FacialDescription(C,F)∧Small(C,F).

The milestone list records three claims used in the paper's proof. In a zero-one hull, every vertex is a zero-one vector and there are no nonzero rays. For integer hulls, the cited vertex-size result gives a uniform polynomial bound on the coordinates of vertices. Finally, the Cramer's-rule calculation bounds an integral normal fff and intercept ggg by (2nx)n(2nx)^n(2nx)n when the geometric data have coordinates bounded by xxx Karp and Papadimitriou, pp. 5–7.

Significance

Lemma 1 permits descriptions of the whole hull, including lower-dimensional hulls that require equations and unbounded integer hulls that have recession directions. It gives a coefficient bound for every input with one polynomial, rather than a polynomial chosen separately for each instance. This is the premise needed when the paper treats a facial description as a language of short encodable inequalities. The later assertion that an NP-recognizable small facial description places the decision problem in co-NP has a distinct hypothesis and is handled by the first mission of this series Karp and Papadimitriou, Theorem 1, pp. 7–8.

The mathematical result is known; the mission asks for a Lean proof of its precise rational, input-indexed version. The local declarations are proof obligations and do not yet carry verified proofs. Existing platform work includes a rational integer-hull definition reused here, a related open theorem of Cook–Gerards–Schrijver–Tardos that bounds normal coefficients under different hypotheses, and proved real-carrier versions of Meyer's polyhedrality and finite-generation results. The related open theorem does not supply Lemma 1: it has neither this zero-one case nor the bound on the intercept ggg. The real-carrier theorems supply neither the input-size bound nor the paper's rational convention.

Difficulty

The zero-one case has bounded coordinates, but a complete description must also handle an empty hull and a hull contained in a proper affine subspace. Bounding only the facet inequalities of a full-dimensional nonempty polytope does not describe those cases. The integer-programming case adds unbounded directions, and the paper's printed identification of extreme rays with rows of AAA is false. A faithful treatment must bound suitable recession directions and then obtain a uniform coefficient bound for the inequalities describing the hull Karp and Papadimitriou, pp. 5–7.

Formalization scope

The Lean model uses List Bool for inputs, Fin (n z) → ℤ for feasible vectors, and Fin (n z) → ℚ for the convex hull. The published CookSensitivity.ChvatalRank.polyhedron and integerHull definitions provide the general rational integer-programming substrate. This mission adds only the paper's input-indexed problem, facial description, smallness condition, and two named problem classes. The three language-recognition requirements in the paper's Definition 1 are omitted because Lemma 1 never uses them; the resulting theorem applies to every such geometric problem, including every c.o.p. in the paper's narrower definition.

The polynomial bound is represented by (∣z∣+n(z))k+k(|z|+n(z))^k+k(∣z∣+n(z))k+k with a single natural exponent kkk chosen before every input and inequality. For an integer-programming-type input, the sum s(A,b)=∑a⌈log⁡2(1+∣a∣)⌉s(A,b)=\sum_a\lceil\log_2(1+|a|)\rceils(A,b)=∑a​⌈log2​(1+∣a∣)⌉ over all entries of AAA and bbb must be at most ∣z∣|z|∣z∣. This makes the paper's phrase “zzz specifies AAA and bbb” an explicit binary-size condition. The cited vertex milestone bounds coordinates in terms of sss alone, as the page states: a zero column gives a line direction rather than a vertex. Its statement follows the paper's unrestricted Ax≤bAx\le bAx≤b formulation; the IP-type goal additionally imposes x≥0x\ge0x≥0. The paper calls bbb an nnn-vector, but it has one entry per row of AAA and is an mmm-vector here. The Cramer's-rule milestone allows rows of size 2x2x2x, as vertex differences can reach that size.

Empty feasible sets, dimension zero, lower-dimensional hulls, and unbounded IP hulls remain in the goal. A description restricted to full-dimensional facets, or a smallness exponent chosen separately for each input, would not meet it. A complete development needs rational convex hulls, integer-hull geometry, finite descriptions of rational polyhedra, bounds on vertices and recession generators, and finite-dimensional determinant estimates. The rational integer-hull definitions and the coefficient estimates are reusable beyond this mission; contributions that establish the three listed milestones or the remaining geometric steps are in scope.

Selected references

  • Richard M. Karp and Christos H. Papadimitriou, On Linear Characterizations of Combinatorial Optimization Problems, MIT/LCS/TM-154, February 1980, pp. 3–7. Report scan. Later published in SIAM Journal on Computing 11 (1982), 620–632, DOI.
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Graph TheoryOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Send-and-Split Method for Minimum-Concave-Cost Network Flows I: A Minimum-Cost Flow Exists iff Every Simple Circulation Has Nonnegative Cost, and Then an Extreme One Exists (Theorem 1)Research Paper

Why minimum-concave-cost flows

Many network design and production–distribution problems have economies of scale: shipping twice as much along an arc costs less than twice as much, because of fixed charges, set-up costs or volume discounts. Modelled as network flows, such problems ask for a flow of least cost when each arc cost is a concave function of the flow on the arc. Classical instances include the uncapacitated lot-sizing problem, the fixed-charge transportation problem, and the Steiner tree problem in graphs. Unlike linear costs, concave costs make the problem NP-hard in general, and the usual linear-programming arguments do not apply directly.

Erickson, Monma and Veinott (Math. Oper. Res. 12 (1987) 634–664) give the send-and-split method, a dynamic program that solves such problems in time exponential only in the number of demand nodes. Before the method can run, two questions must be settled: when does a minimum-cost flow exist at all, and can the arc costs be shifted so that they are nonnegative on flows? Theorem 1 of the paper answers both. This mission formalizes Theorem 1.

Timeline. Hirsch and Hoffman (1961) showed that a concave function bounded below on a polyhedron's extreme rays attains its minimum at a vertex; Rockafellar's Convex Analysis (1970, pp. 61, 343) gives the polyhedral form. Edmonds and Karp (1972) showed how to choose node potentials making linear arc costs nonnegative. Theorem 1 (1987) extends both to additive concave costs on uncapacitated networks.

Setting

A graph G=(N,A)G = (N, A)G=(N,A) has nnn nodes and a set AAA of ordered pairs of distinct nodes, the arcs. A demand vector r∈Rnr \in \mathbb{R}^nr∈Rn assigns a demand rir_iri​ to each node (negative demands are supplies). A preflow is a nonnegative matrix x=(xij)x = (x_{ij})x=(xij​) carried by the arcs, and a flow for rrr is a preflow with

∑(j,i)∈Axji−∑(i,k)∈Axik=ri(i∈N),\sum_{(j,i)\in A} x_{ji} - \sum_{(i,k)\in A} x_{ik} = r_i \qquad (i \in N),(j,i)∈A∑​xji​−(i,k)∈A∑​xik​=ri​(i∈N),

inflow minus outflow equal to demand. A circulation is a flow for r=0r = 0r=0.

The flow cost is c(x)=∑(i,j)∈Acij(xij)c(x) = \sum_{(i,j)\in A} c_{ij}(x_{ij})c(x)=∑(i,j)∈A​cij​(xij​), where each cijc_{ij}cij​ is concave on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) and cij(0)=0c_{ij}(0) = 0cij​(0)=0. A minimum-cost flow for rrr is a flow whose cost is at most that of every flow for rrr.

A preflow induces the subgraph of arcs with nonzero flow. An extreme flow is a flow whose induced subgraph is a forest (in the undirected sense; two antiparallel arcs form a cycle). A simple circuit is a directed cycle through at least two distinct nodes, with arc set CCC; a simple circulation is a circulation whose induced subgraph is a simple circuit. The slope at infinity c˙ij(∞)∈[−∞,∞)\dot c_{ij}(\infty) \in [-\infty, \infty)c˙ij​(∞)∈[−∞,∞) is the limit of the right derivative of cijc_{ij}cij​.

Two nodes are in the same strong component if chains (directed walks) join them both ways; a component is a sink if no chain leaves it. The augmented graph G‾\underline{G}G​ appends a node ν\nuν and an arc (i,ν)(i,\nu)(i,ν) for exactly one node iii of each sink component. Its arc costs c‾\underline{c}c​ are c˙ij(∞)\dot c_{ij}(\infty)c˙ij​(∞) on arcs inside strong components and arbitrary real numbers elsewhere; π‾i\underline{\pi}_iπ​i​ is the infimum of the costs of chains from iii to ν\nuν. For π∈Rn\pi \in \mathbb{R}^nπ∈Rn, the altered costs are cijπ(y)=cij(y)−(πi−πj)yc^\pi_{ij}(y) = c_{ij}(y) - (\pi_i - \pi_j) ycijπ​(y)=cij​(y)−(πi​−πj​)y.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

The following are equivalent:

1∘ there is a minimum-cost flow for some demand vector;2∘ the null circulation is a minimum-cost circulation;3∘ for every r with a flow, some minimum-cost flow for r is extreme;4∘ c(y)≥0 for every simple circulation y;5∘ ∑(i,j)∈Cc˙ij(∞)≥0 for every simple circuit with arc set C;6∘ there is a minimum-cost chain from each node of G‾ to ν under c‾.\begin{aligned} &1^\circ\ \text{there is a minimum-cost flow for some demand vector;}\\ &2^\circ\ \text{the null circulation is a minimum-cost circulation;}\\ &3^\circ\ \text{for every } r \text{ with a flow, some minimum-cost flow for } r \text{ is extreme;}\\ &4^\circ\ c(y) \ge 0 \text{ for every simple circulation } y;\\ &5^\circ\ \textstyle\sum_{(i,j)\in C} \dot c_{ij}(\infty) \ge 0 \text{ for every simple circuit with arc set } C;\\ &6^\circ\ \text{there is a minimum-cost chain from each node of } \underline{G} \text{ to } \nu \text{ under } \underline{c}. \end{aligned}​1∘ there is a minimum-cost flow for some demand vector;2∘ the null circulation is a minimum-cost circulation;3∘ for every r with a flow, some minimum-cost flow for r is extreme;4∘ c(y)≥0 for every simple circulation y;5∘ ∑(i,j)∈C​c˙ij​(∞)≥0 for every simple circuit with arc set C;6∘ there is a minimum-cost chain from each node of G​ to ν under c​.​

If moreover rrr admits a flow and c‾ijz≤cij(z)\underline{c}_{ij} z \le c_{ij}(z)c​ij​z≤cij​(z) on arcs joining distinct strong components, where z=∑iri+z = \sum_i r_i^+z=∑i​ri+​, they are equivalent to

7∘∃π  cijπ(xij)≥0 for all arcs (i,j) and all flows x for r,7^\circ\quad \exists \pi\ \ c^\pi_{ij}(x_{ij}) \ge 0 \text{ for all arcs } (i,j) \text{ and all flows } x \text{ for } r,7∘∃π  cijπ​(xij​)≥0 for all arcs (i,j) and all flows x for r,

and π=π‾\pi = \underline{\pi}π=π​ is real and satisfies 7∘7^\circ7∘.

Milestones

The milestones are the statements the paper's proof rests on: the Hirsch–Hoffman extension (p. 638), cπ(x)=c(x)+∑iπiric^\pi(x) = c(x) + \sum_i \pi_i r_icπ(x)=c(x)+∑i​πi​ri​, the bounds 12c(2x)+12c(2θy)≤c(x+θy)≤c(x)+c(θy)\tfrac12 c(2x) + \tfrac12 c(2\theta y) \le c(x+\theta y) \le c(x) + c(\theta y)21​c(2x)+21​c(2θy)≤c(x+θy)≤c(x)+c(θy), the circuit-wise form of 4° ⇔ 5°, uniqueness of the extreme circulation, xij≤zx_{ij} \le zxij​≤z between strong components, and the two inequalities giving 7∘7^\circ7∘ (all p. 639).

Significance

Theorem 1 decides existence of an optimum from the costs alone: conditions 4° and 5° do not mention the demand vector, so one test settles every demand pattern at once, and 3° guarantees the optimum may be sought among extreme (forest) flows, which is what the send-and-split recursion enumerates. Condition 6° is checkable by a shortest-chain computation, and 7° supplies node potentials that convert the instance into an equivalent one with nonnegative arc costs, the standing assumption of the paper's Theorem 2 and of its running-time analysis. For linear costs the theorem reduces to the familiar statement that a minimum-cost flow exists iff no simple circuit has negative cost.

The result is proved in the paper; it has not been machine-checked. The formalization adds a precise model of extreme flows over arcs (so that antiparallel arcs form a cycle), a treatment of slopes that may equal −∞-\infty−∞, and the Hirsch–Hoffman extension specialized to network polyhedra, which the paper cites rather than proves. Related platform items cover the linear, capacitated case: CycleCanceling.MinMean.minCost_iff_no_negative_cycle and CycleCanceling.MinMean.minCost_iff_exists_price (Goldberg–Tarjan), and LinearOptimization.positive_directed_cycle_of_circulation and LinearOptimization.network_basic_iff_tree on a different arc encoding.

Difficulty

The first idea, to argue as for linear costs by cancelling negative cycles, fails because concave costs are not additive along cycle decompositions: the cost of a flow is not the sum of the costs of its cycle and path components, and a circuit can be harmless at small flow and arbitrarily negative at large flow. Existence therefore depends on the asymptotic slopes c˙ij(∞)\dot c_{ij}(\infty)c˙ij​(∞), which may be −∞-\infty−∞, rather than on any finite cost evaluation. The implication from bounded rays to an attained minimum (Hirsch–Hoffman) requires identifying the vertices of the flow polyhedron with forest flows and its extreme rays with simple circulations. The potential step 6° ⇒ 7° needs a cost bound on arcs between strong components, where the concave cost is only controlled up to the total positive demand zzz.

Formalization scope

Nodes are Fin n; a graph is ArcGraph n, a Finset (Fin n × Fin n) of arcs without loops. Preflows are real matrices vanishing off the arcs; arc costs are functions R→R\mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}R→R, concave on Set.Ici 0 with value 000 at 000 (the paper's "without further mention" assumption, made a hypothesis). The augmented graph has nodes Option (Fin n), with none the node ν\nuν; chain costs, c˙ij(∞)\dot c_{ij}(\infty)c˙ij​(∞) and π‾\underline{\pi}π​ are EReal-valued.

The explicit readings of loose phrases are:

  • "minimum-cost flow" is a flow whose cost is at most that of every flow for the same demands (attained, never an infimum);
  • "bounded below on each half-line" is ∃M ∀θ≥0, M≤c(x+θy)\exists M\ \forall \theta \ge 0,\ M \le c(x+\theta y)∃M ∀θ≥0, M≤c(x+θy);
  • c˙ij(∞)\dot c_{ij}(\infty)c˙ij​(∞) is the infimum over t>0t > 0t>0 of the right derivative at ttt, equal to the limit by concavity;
  • "chain" is a directed walk; "minimum-cost chain" is a chain of real cost at most every chain's cost;
  • 6° quantifies over every admissible choice of the appended arcs and of the finite costs c‾\underline{c}c​;
  • in the 7° part, "flows xxx" are flows for the given rrr, and the existence of such a flow is an added hypothesis: without it 7° is vacuous while 4° can fail;
  • "π‾\underline{\pi}π​ satisfies 7°" uses the real values of π‾\underline{\pi}π​, which the theorem asserts are real.

A formalization in which extreme flows are forests of a simple graph built from the support, in which chains are simple paths, or in which a chain of cost −∞-\infty−∞ counts as a minimum would make 3°, 6° or the equivalence trivially or falsely true; all three are ruled out by the definitions. The running-time remarks, the computation paragraph and the linear-cost remark after the proof are not formalized. Contributions are welcome on the polyhedral side (vertices and extreme rays of {x≥0:conservation}\{x \ge 0 : \text{conservation}\}{x≥0:conservation}), on right derivatives of concave functions at infinity, and on walk costs with negative cycles; all are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • R. E. Erickson, C. L. Monma, A. F. Veinott, Jr., Send-and-Split Method for Minimum-Concave-Cost Network Flows, Mathematics of Operations Research 12(4), 1987, 634–664. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.12.4.634
  • W. M. Hirsch, A. J. Hoffman, Extreme varieties, concave functions, and the fixed charge problem, Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics 14, 1961, 355–369. https://doi.org/10.1002/cpa.3160140312
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173
  • J. Edmonds, R. M. Karp, Theoretical improvements in algorithmic efficiency for network flow problems, Journal of the ACM 19(2), 1972, 248–264. https://doi.org/10.1145/321694.321699
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Dynamical SystemsOperations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Stability and Instability of Fluid Models for Reentrant Lines 3: In Every Reentrant Line the Last-Buffer-First-Served Fluid Model Is StableResearch Paper

Motivation

A manufacturing line can send the same job through several stations and return it to a station it visited earlier. Semiconductor fabrication is one example. Such a reentrant line has several customer classes at one server, and the server must choose which class to work on. A station may have enough capacity on average yet the line can still accumulate an unbounded queue under an unfortunate service rule. Dai and Weiss use deterministic fluid models to study this question: fluid represents large queues, and its motion exposes the long-run effect of the service rule. Their paper proves that two simple buffer priority disciplines have stable fluid models for every reentrant line satisfying the usual station load condition. This mission concerns Last-Buffer-First-Served, abbreviated LBFS. Dai and Weiss (1996).

The distinction between fluid and stochastic queue stability matters. Dai and Weiss cite an earlier theorem connecting stable fluid models to stable queueing disciplines under the stochastic assumptions of their introduction. The target here is their fluid theorem, Theorem 4.4, rather than a separate formalization of that stochastic implication. Dai and Weiss (1996), pp. 115, 119, 124.

Setting

There are KKK classes, numbered in route order, and III stations. Every unit of fluid enters class 111 at rate one. On completing service in class kkk, it becomes class k+1k+1k+1; after class KKK, it leaves. The station serving class kkk is σ(k)\sigma(k)σ(k). Different classes may share a station. The constituency of station iii is Ci={k:σ(k)=i}C_i=\{k:\sigma(k)=i\}Ci​={k:σ(k)=i}, and class kkk has positive mean service requirement mkm_kmk​, so its service rate is μk=1/mk\mu_k=1/m_kμk​=1/mk​. The nominal workload at station iii is ρi=∑k∈Cimk\rho_i=\sum_{k\in C_i}m_kρi​=∑k∈Ci​​mk​. The paper assumes ρi<1\rho_i<1ρi​<1 at every station. Dai and Weiss (1996), pp. 115–117.

For time t≥0t\ge0t≥0, Qk(t)Q_k(t)Qk​(t) is the amount of fluid in class kkk, and Tk(t)T_k(t)Tk​(t) is the cumulative server time spent on that class. The flow equations say that class content equals its initial content plus completed service from the preceding class minus its own completed service. The first class receives the external unit-rate flow. Each QkQ_kQk​ remains nonnegative, each TkT_kTk​ starts at zero and is nondecreasing, and the cumulative idle time of every station is nondecreasing. A priority rule adds a condition on when a server may reserve capacity for lower-ranked classes. These are the fluid equations of Definition 1.2 and §4. Dai and Weiss (1996), pp. 118, 122–123.

A priority ranking π\piπ assigns a distinct rank to every class, with smaller rank meaning higher priority. For class kkk, let HkH_kHk​ contain the classes at the same station whose rank is at least as high as kkk's. In a preemptive-resume priority fluid model, capacity unused by HkH_kHk​ may increase only when the fluid workload in HkH_kHk​ is zero. Under LBFS, π(k)=K+1−k\pi(k)=K+1-kπ(k)=K+1−k: a class later in the route has higher priority. Priority is compared within each station, even though the ranking is written globally. Dai and Weiss (1996), pp. 122–123, Definition 4.1.

Formalization targets

Theorem 4.4 asks for stability of the LBFS fluid model for every reentrant line with positive service requirements and ρi<1\rho_i<1ρi​<1:

∃δ>0  ∀(Q,T),[(Q,T) is an LBFS fluid solution and ∣Q(0)∣=1]⟹∀t≥δ,  Q(t)=0,\exists\delta>0\;\forall (Q,T),\quad \bigl[(Q,T)\text{ is an LBFS fluid solution and }|Q(0)|=1\bigr] \Longrightarrow \forall t\ge\delta,\;Q(t)=0,∃δ>0∀(Q,T),[(Q,T) is an LBFS fluid solution and ∣Q(0)∣=1]⟹∀t≥δ,Q(t)=0,

where ∣Q(0)∣=∑k=1KQk(0)|Q(0)|=\sum_{k=1}^K Q_k(0)∣Q(0)∣=∑k=1K​Qk​(0). The same δ\deltaδ must work for every solution and every normalized initial configuration. This is exactly the fluid stability definition used by the paper. Dai and Weiss (1996), pp. 118–119, 124.

The milestones follow the paper's own intermediate statements. Lemma 2.2 treats a nonnegative absolutely continuous function whose derivative is negative whenever the function is positive. Proposition 4.2 identifies flow-rate relations at a regular point under a buffer priority rule. The proof of Theorem 4.4 records a uniform negative drift for total content and the explicit emptying time

δ=∣Q(0)∣λ^−1,λ^=1max⁡1≤i≤Iρi>1.\delta=\frac{|Q(0)|}{\widehat\lambda-1},\qquad \widehat\lambda=\frac{1}{\max_{1\le i\le I}\rho_i}>1.δ=λ−1∣Q(0)∣​,λ=max1≤i≤I​ρi​1​>1.

The explicit time is stated for every initial fluid amount; normalization to one belongs only to the final stability theorem. Dai and Weiss (1996), pp. 120, 123–125.

Significance

The theorem gives a uniform finite clearing time for the LBFS fluid model whenever each station's nominal workload is below its capacity. It applies to any number of stations, any finite route, and any assignment of route stages to stations. This is stronger than checking a particular factory layout. The conclusion concerns every fluid solution, which matters because the defining equations need not determine a unique path. Dai and Weiss (1996), pp. 118–119, 124–125.

Formalizing the result requires a reusable interface for reentrant lines, service allocation, station workloads, and the priority complementarity condition, plus separate statements for the extinction criterion and priority flow rates. The theorem is proved in the 1996 paper; the remaining work in this mission is a machine-checked Lean proof of its fluid-model statement and of the listed milestones. The stochastic queueing theorem cited by Dai and Weiss is outside this mission's scope.

Difficulty

The load inequalities ρi<1\rho_i<1ρi​<1 compare average work with available server time, but by themselves they do not specify which class receives service at an instant. Under other service rules, reentrant lines can amplify queued fluid despite every station being nominally underloaded; the same paper gives such an example. A formal proof therefore has to use the precise LBFS priority condition, not only the flow equations and the load inequalities. The regular-time argument must then yield a single bound valid across every possible fluid path. Dai and Weiss (1996), §§4–5.

Formalization scope

Lean represents classes and stations by finite index types. Their indices start at zero: Lean class k−1k-1k−1 corresponds to paper class kkk, and LBFS is Fin.revPerm. The paths QQQ and TTT are functions on all real times, while the fluid equations and conclusions are imposed only for t≥0t\ge0t≥0. The external arrival rate is one, as in the paper's normalization. The conditions that station idle capacity and priority-set unused capacity increase only when their relevant content is zero are expressed by constancy on each interval where that content stays positive. Service and fluid paths are not given extra continuity hypotheses; the fluid equations and monotonicity conditions provide the regularity used in the paper. Dai and Weiss (1996), pp. 116–119, 122–123.

The service requirements mk>0m_k>0mk​>0 are explicit so μk=1/mk\mu_k=1/m_kμk​=1/mk​ has its intended value. The drift and emptying-time milestones explicitly assume K>0K>0K>0, since their formula divides by the maximum station workload. The main theorem retains the universal quantification over lines; when K=0K=0K=0, its normalization ∣Q(0)∣=1|Q(0)|=1∣Q(0)∣=1 is impossible. A faithful solution predicate must include the priority condition (4.4), whose omission would change Theorem 4.4 into a false claim about all work-conserving policies. The definition layer, elementary real-analysis extinction lemma, and priority flow-rate relations are useful beyond this single stability theorem. Dai and Weiss (1996), pp. 117–125.

Selected references

  • J. G. Dai and G. Weiss, Stability and instability of fluid models for reentrant lines, Mathematics of Operations Research 21(1), 115–134, 1996. DOI: 10.1287/moor.21.1.115.
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A Re-solving Heuristic with Uniformly Bounded Loss for Network Revenue Management 3: On a Degenerate Two-Class Instance, Frequent Re-solving Has Regret at Least Ω(√T)Research Paper

Motivation

Network revenue managers sell access to limited capacity over time. An airline, for example, may have several products that use the same seat inventory, with some products earning more revenue than others. The decision to accept a request must be made when it arrives, before future requests are known. A standard way to guide that decision is to solve a deterministic linear program using expected demand, then use its optimal allocation as a probability of acceptance. As inventory changes, one can solve the program again. Bumpensanti and Wang study how often to do so, and show that frequent re-solving has a real limitation when the linear program is degenerate: on a particular instance its expected loss grows at least as the square root of the selling horizon. Bumpensanti and Wang, arXiv:1802.06192v3, Sections 3.1 and 5.1.

The same paper gives an infrequent re-solving policy with uniformly bounded regret and an upper bound of order T\sqrt TT​ for the frequent re-solving policy. The lower-bound result is the counterpart that identifies a case where that order cannot be removed by the frequent policy itself. It uses a two-class example small enough to expose the issue without other network complications. Bumpensanti and Wang, arXiv:1802.06192v3, Theorem 1 and Propositions 2–3.

Setting

There is one resource, initially with TTT units of capacity, and two customer classes. Class jjj arrives through an independent Poisson process of rate one. Accepting a customer uses one unit of capacity and earns price rjr_jrj​, where 0<r2<r10<r_2<r_10<r2​<r1​. Rejected requests earn nothing, and unused capacity has no terminal value. The higher-price class has priority in the deterministic allocation, but its realized demand is random. The horizon TTT is a positive integer, divided into TTT periods of length one. Bumpensanti and Wang, arXiv:1802.06192v3, Section 2, pp. 7–9, and Appendix C.1, p. 32.

At the start of a period with kkk periods left and capacity ccc, the deterministic linear program (DLP) chooses rates x1,x2x_1,x_2x1​,x2​ that maximize r1x1+r2x2r_1x_1+r_2x_2r1​x1​+r2​x2​ subject to x1+x2≤c/kx_1+x_2\le c/kx1​+x2​≤c/k and 0≤xj≤10\le x_j\le10≤xj​≤1. In this instance its first coordinate is x1=min⁡{c/k,1}x_1=\min\{c/k,1\}x1​=min{c/k,1}. The frequent re-solving policy (FR) accepts each class-jjj request in that period with probability xjx_jxj​, provided capacity remains. It re-solves the DLP at the next period with the new capacity. This is Algorithm 2 specialized to the example. Bumpensanti and Wang, arXiv:1802.06192v3, Algorithm 2, p. 11, and Appendix D, p. 42.

The hindsight optimum knows the total demand from both classes at the end of the horizon and chooses the best feasible allocation using that information. Its expected value is vHO(T,T)v^{\mathrm{HO}}(T,T)vHO(T,T); the first argument is horizon length and the second is initial capacity. Let vFR(T,T)v^{\mathrm{FR}}(T,T)vFR(T,T) be the frequent policy's expected revenue. Since hindsight has more information, their difference is a regret benchmark. The formulation uses the paper's hindsight linear program, which is exact on this unit-consumption instance. Bumpensanti and Wang, arXiv:1802.06192v3, Eq. (3) and Definition 1, p. 9.

Formalization targets

Main result

For every pair of prices 0<r2<r10<r_2<r_10<r2​<r1​, there are M>0M>0M>0 and T0≥1T_0\ge1T0​≥1 such that, for all integer T≥T0T\ge T_0T≥T0​ and every optimal DLP selector used by FR,

vHO(T,T)−vFR(T,T)≥MT.v^{\mathrm{HO}}(T,T)-v^{\mathrm{FR}}(T,T)\ge M\sqrt T.vHO(T,T)−vFR(T,T)≥MT​.

This specializes Proposition 2's existence statement to the explicit family in its Appendix C.1 proof. The constant may depend on the prices, but is chosen before the selector and the horizon. The benchmark is the hindsight value, as in the proposition. Bumpensanti and Wang, arXiv:1802.06192v3, Proposition 2, p. 18, and Appendix C.1, pp. 32–34.

Supporting results

The milestones record the optimal DLP allocation on the example and two clauses of Lemma 7. The latter estimate the probabilities that the high-price arrival count is moderately below its mean in the first third and moderately above its mean in the last third. With T′T'T′ an integer phase length and N∼Poisson⁡(T′)N\sim\operatorname{Poisson}(T')N∼Poisson(T′), the first bound is

P(T′−4T′≤N≤T′−3T′)≥0.0013−0.9496/T′.\mathbb P(T'-4\sqrt{T'}\le N\le T'-3\sqrt{T'}) \ge 0.0013-0.9496/\sqrt{T'}.P(T′−4T′​≤N≤T′−3T′​)≥0.0013−0.9496/T′​.

The third-phase bound uses the standard normal cumulative distribution function Φ\PhiΦ and the unrounded constant Φ(7)−Φ(6)\Phi(7)-\Phi(6)Φ(7)−Φ(6). Bumpensanti and Wang, arXiv:1802.06192v3, Lemma 7 and Eqs. (49)–(53), p. 40.

Significance

This result shows that solving the DLP every period does not, by itself, give a horizon-independent expected loss. The example has only one resource and two customer classes; the gap cannot be attributed to a large network. The paper's separate bounded-regret result uses a different re-solving schedule and acceptance rule, so formalizing this lower bound helps distinguish guarantees for the two policies. Together with the upper bound for FR, it identifies the square-root order as the relevant scale for this policy on the example. Bumpensanti and Wang, arXiv:1802.06192v3, Sections 4–5.

The mathematical proposition is proved in the cited paper; the Lean goal here remains an open theorem statement. Formalizing it requires precise interfaces for a Poisson arrival model, a capacity-limited randomized policy, a hindsight LP benchmark, and asymptotic lower bounds. Those interfaces can be reused in later revenue-management results, while the two-class instance gives a concrete check on the conventions.

Difficulty

The initial DLP solution allocates the average capacity to the high-price class. A simple intuition might therefore predict that repeated re-solving preserves capacity for that class. The remaining-capacity ratio, however, responds to realized arrivals; when the ratio rises above one, the re-solved LP assigns positive acceptance probability to the lower-price class. The policy then spends capacity before later high-price arrivals are known. The lower-bound analysis needs a path event that controls arrivals through the middle phase and a joint event involving the policy's accepted requests. Marginal Poisson counts alone do not determine those admissions. Bumpensanti and Wang, arXiv:1802.06192v3, Appendix C.1, pp. 32–34.

Formalization scope

Lean uses Fin 2 for classes and Fin 1 for the resource. The general model takes positive Poisson rates, nonnegative prices and nonnegative consumption. On the lower-bound instance the rates and consumptions equal one, capacity equals TTT, and prices satisfy 0<r2<r10<r_2<r_10<r2​<r1​. These are the operational standing assumptions of the paper's Section 2 and the positive-price reading used by the example. Optimal DLP ties are represented by quantifying over every selector. The LP value is the published RLPBidPrice.Unbiased.piValue definition, evaluated on nonnegative capacity vectors; the rate and capacity conventions make its real supremum well posed.

The window law superposes the independent class Poisson processes into a Poisson total count, independent class labels, and independent Bernoulli acceptance marks. A fold over ordered arrivals applies Algorithm 2's capacity check after every acceptance. The expected hindsight value sums over independent total demand counts, and the FR value is a backward recursion over the remaining unit periods. The target's MMM is strictly positive and fixed before the horizon, so neither a zero constant nor a horizon-dependent constant can satisfy it trivially.

The two Lemma 7 milestones cover only Q1Q_1Q1​ and Q3Q_3Q3​. Its continuous-time Q2Q_2Q2​ event and the joint admission event require a path probability space and are outside this draft. Equation (52) yields Φ(7)−Φ(6)\Phi(7)-\Phi(6)Φ(7)−Φ(6); the printed 9.8531×10−109.8531\times10^{-10}9.8531×10−10 rounds that value upward. The source proof divides TTT into three exact integer-length phases, while Proposition 2 is stated for all sufficiently large TTT; this gap requires attention in a complete proof. The source here is arXiv:1802.06192v3, whose printed and PDF page numbers coincide.

Selected references

  • Bumpensanti, P. and Wang, H., A Re-solving Heuristic with Uniformly Bounded Loss for Network Revenue Management, arXiv preprint arXiv:1802.06192v3, 2018. PDF.
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