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Operations ResearchProbabilityStatistics·Captain: Shuze Chen

Dynamic Pricing with Demand Learning and Reference Effects: Square-root regret under changing reference pricesResearch Paper

Motivation

A seller learning demand from sales data also changes the conditions under which that data is generated. Customers may compare today's price with a reference formed from earlier prices. A price experiment can therefore affect both current sales and future demand. The seller observes prices and sales, while the reference price remains hidden. This mission concerns the slow-moving pricing policy in den Boer and Keskin, Dynamic Pricing with Demand Learning and Reference Effects, using the supplied April 19, 2021 artifact.

The relevant question is quantitative: how much cumulative revenue does this policy lose against a seller who knows the demand parameters and the reference mechanism? A guarantee must account for the cost of learning and the consequences of changing customers' reference prices. The target includes mechanisms whose smoothing coefficient changes over time and whose reference price can reset.

Setting

A price interval is the entire real interval I=[ℓ,u]I=[\ell,u]I=[ℓ,u], with 0≤ℓ<u0\le\ell<u0≤ℓ<u. The seller has a demand parameter θ=(α,β,η+,η−)\theta=(\alpha,\beta,\eta^+,\eta^-)θ=(α,β,η+,η−) in a known bounded rectangle intersected with η+≤η−\eta^+\le\eta^-η+≤η−. Here α≥0\alpha\ge0α≥0, β>0\beta>0β>0 and the reference sensitivities are nonnegative. The expected demand and revenue are

d(p,r,θ)=α−βp+η+(r−p)+−η−(p−r)+,R(p,r,θ)=p d(p,r,θ).d(p,r,\theta)=\alpha-\beta p+\eta^+(r-p)^+-\eta^-(p-r)^+, \qquad R(p,r,\theta)=p\,d(p,r,\theta).d(p,r,θ)=α−βp+η+(r−p)+−η−(p−r)+,R(p,r,θ)=pd(p,r,θ).

For every allowed parameter vector, demand is nonnegative on I2I^2I2 and α/(2β)\alpha/(2\beta)α/(2β) lies strictly inside III. Equality of the sensitivities and zero sensitivities are allowed. Observed demand adds an independent shock. The shocks are identically distributed, have mean zero and finite variance, and possess a finite moment generating function in some neighborhood of zero. Their law need not be Gaussian or bounded, and zero variance is allowed.

A reference mechanism is a continuous map from each finite price history to a reference in III. In the class RES\mathcal R_{ES}RES​, one coefficient ζ∈[0,1)\zeta\in[0,1)ζ∈[0,1) gives rt+1=ζrt+(1−ζ)ptr_{t+1}=\zeta r_t+(1-\zeta)p_trt+1​=ζrt​+(1−ζ)pt​. The larger class RG\mathcal R_GRG​ has change times τ1=1\tau_1=1τ1​=1 and coefficients ζk∈[0,1)\zeta_k\in[0,1)ζk​∈[0,1). Smoothing applies between changes; at a change the reference may reset continuously as a function of the full preceding price history. For some fixed finite c>0c>0c>0, every interval (s,t](s,t](s,t] with positive integers s<ts<ts<t contains at most ct−sc\sqrt{t-s}ct−s​ changes. Infinitely many changes are permitted, as are coefficients tending to one. These are the mechanisms of Section 3.3, without an additional uniform contraction condition.

The slow-moving policy divides time into episodes i≥1i\ge1i≥1, each comprising two blocks of 2i2^i2i periods. With δi=c02−i/4\delta_i=c_0 2^{-i/4}δi​=c0​2−i/4, it charges the previous price estimate minus or plus δi\delta_iδi​, clipped at the appropriate price endpoint. At each completed episode it fits a linear demand model to that episode alone, projects the intercept and slope separately onto their known intervals, and updates its price estimate. The policy uses observed price-demand pairs, never the reference, unknown demand parameters or change schedule.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 3 of the supplied source, printed and PDF page 17. Fix the model, an admissible noise process, a mechanism in RG\mathcal R_GRG​, θ∈Θ\theta\in\Thetaθ∈Θ, tuning 0<c0<2−3/4(u−ℓ)0<c_0<2^{-3/4}(u-\ell)0<c0​<2−3/4(u−ℓ) and allowed initial estimates. The claim is

∃c6>0∀T≥1:ΔS(T,ρ,θ)≤c6T.\exists c_6>0\quad\forall T\ge1:\quad \Delta_S(T,\rho,\theta)\le c_6\sqrt T.∃c6​>0∀T≥1:ΔS​(T,ρ,θ)≤c6​T​.

The constant is finite and chosen before the horizon. Here regret compares the policy with the full dynamic clairvoyant benchmark

Π∗(T,ρ,θ)=sup⁡(p1,…,pT)∈IT∑t=1TR(pt,ρt(p1,…,pt−1),θ).\Pi^*(T,\rho,\theta)=\sup_{(p_1,\ldots,p_T)\in I^T} \sum_{t=1}^{T}R(p_t,\rho_t(p_1,\ldots,p_{t-1}),\theta).Π∗(T,ρ,θ)=(p1​,…,pT​)∈ITsup​t=1∑T​R(pt​,ρt​(p1​,…,pt−1​),θ).

The three milestones retain their source numbering and dependency order. Proposition 2, page 17, asserts the same regret rate under two uniform sufficient conditions: the fixed price α/(2β)\alpha/(2\beta)α/(2β) loses at most c4Tc_4\sqrt Tc4​T​, uniformly also over Θ\ThetaΘ, and holding any price after any history incurs total reference deviation at most c5t−sc_5\sqrt{t-s}c5​t−s​. Theorem 1, page 10, gives a horizon-independent fixed-price loss bound for RES\mathcal R_{ES}RES​. Proposition 1, page 13, bounds the sum of absolute reference deviations by one constant under the same exponential-smoothing class. Neither sufficient condition from Proposition 2 is a premise of the goal.

Significance

The printed result provides a square-root upper bound for a concrete learning rule when reference prices are hidden and can change their updating behavior. It compares that rule with all dynamic feasible price vectors, rather than with a fixed-price substitute. The claim applies to each finite prefix, including horizons that end before an episode or a block is complete.

Formalizing these statements makes the causal algorithm, the benchmark and the quantifier order explicit. The resulting definitions separate continuous reference mechanisms and iid noise from the specific demand model. All four theorem items are open statement targets in this mission; no machine-checked proofs of them are claimed. The source's description as asymptotic optimality is retained, but an independent minimax lower bound is outside the mission.

Difficulty

Holding a price fixed need not make its reference track it at a rate that is uniform across infinitely many regimes. Each coefficient being strictly below one does not place the entire sequence below a common number less than one. The source proof of Theorem 3 uses maxima over the regimes encountered before the horizon as though they yielded horizon-independent constants. The recorded finding supplies an allowed mechanism for which its intermediate tracking bound fails. This identifies a proof gap, not a disproof of the policy's regret conclusion.

The theorem remains the full printed target. Adding uniform contraction, limiting the number of changes or assuming the desired tracking bound would change the result. The nondifferentiable demand function, adaptive estimates and latent reference dynamics also have to be handled under the actual observation model.

Formalization scope

Prices remain real interval elements. Continuous maps describe references, extended naturals describe change times, and finite products describe histories. Internally, period zero represents source period one; positive horizons and source interval endpoints retain explicit guards. The algorithm is a causal recursion with compatible finite prefixes. Its least-squares update uses the explicit unique two-block solution, followed by the original coordinate projections. Prices are interval-valued; full clipping equals the printed one-sided clipping because the allowed projected center is interior. Real negative quarter powers determine perturbations.

The history domain is extended to real observations, agreeing with the printed nonnegative-history convention wherever it applies and accommodating the additive-noise model. Expected demand remains nonnegative; realized demand is not truncated. The benchmark is a real supremum of a continuous function on a nonempty compact box. Expected policy revenue is a Bochner integral of a bounded measurable finite-horizon random variable. Default values for unbounded suprema or nonintegrable functions therefore cannot trivialize the statements.

Definitions contain no regret or estimator-accuracy assumptions. The scope consists of the goal and its three specified milestones, with their shared foundations. Other results on incumbent pricing, gain-seeking behavior and statistical tests are intentionally excluded. Contributions establishing the full claims or resolving the recorded source findings must preserve these domains and quantifiers.

Selected references

  • Arnoud V. den Boer and N. Bora Keskin, Dynamic Pricing with Demand Learning and Reference Effects, Management Science, supplied April 19, 2021 artifact marked “Forthcoming in Management Science,” first version December 23, 2017. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2021.4234. This mission preserves the repository's published citation basis and the supplied artifact's numbering: main pages 7–17 and electronic companion pages 1–17, PDF pages 33–49.
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: Shuze Chen

Minimum Label s-t Cut has Large Integrality Gaps: Nearly cube-root integrality gap for the strengthened relaxationResearch Paper

Motivation: paying once to remove a class of edges

A network failure can remove several connections at once. When the connections share a physical resource, paying for or disabling that resource acts on an entire class of edges. The minimum label s-t cut problem captures this distinction: edges carry labels, and the cost of removing a label is paid once, regardless of how many edges have that label. Zhang and Tang describe applications to attack graphs and network survivability in Appendix A of their paper.

Linear programming supplies lower bounds for many minimization problems. Its usefulness for an approximation guarantee depends on how far the fractional optimum can lie below the integral optimum. This mission concerns the strengthened label-cut relaxation LP2 and the paper's claim that its integrality gap grows nearly as the cube root of graph size. The source is the pinned 2019 preprint, rather than the later journal version.

Setting: label cuts and the distinct-label relaxation

Let G be a finite directed or undirected graph, with vertex set V, edge set E, distinct terminals s and t, and finite label set L. Each edge has exactly one label. Write n for the number of vertices and m for the number of edges. A label cut is a subset S of L such that deleting every edge carrying a label in S leaves no path from s to t. Its cost is the number of labels in S. The integral optimum OPT is the minimum of these costs.

For a simple terminal path P, let L(P) be the set of distinct labels appearing on P. The strengthened relaxation assigns a nonnegative real variable to each label:

OPT⁡f=min⁡{∑ℓ∈Lxℓ:xℓ≥0,∑ℓ∈L(P)xℓ≥1 for every simple s-t path P}.\operatorname{OPT}_f=\min\left\{\sum_{\ell\in L}x_\ell: x_\ell\ge0,\quad \sum_{\ell\in L(P)}x_\ell\ge1\text{ for every simple }s\text{-}t\text{ path }P\right\}.OPTf​=min⎩⎨⎧​ℓ∈L∑​xℓ​:xℓ​≥0,ℓ∈L(P)∑​xℓ​≥1 for every simple s-t path P⎭⎬⎫​.

A repeated label contributes only once to a path constraint. There is no upper bound on an individual variable. These conventions distinguish LP2 from the edge-sum relaxation LP1 in Section 3. The all-label cut and all-ones fractional vector are feasible. For connected terminals, every fractional objective is at least one, so OPT/OPT_f has a positive, finite denominator.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 1.1, with the directed extension in Section 7. For every real epsilon greater than zero, there are a positive constant C_epsilon and an integer threshold M_0, depending only on epsilon, such that every integer edge budget M at least M_0 admits an instance in each graph orientation satisfying

1≤m≤M,OPT⁡OPT⁡f≥CϵM1/3−ϵ.1\le m\le M,\qquad \frac{\operatorname{OPT}}{\operatorname{OPT}_f}\ge C_\epsilon M^{1/3-\epsilon}.1≤m≤M,OPTf​OPT​≥Cϵ​M1/3−ϵ.

Each witness is a finite simple graph with connected, distinct terminals. The budget formulation specifies the asymptotic worst-case meaning of the printed Omega bound. It includes every positive epsilon and every sufficiently large budget, not just a single graph or an unbounded subsequence of isolated sizes.

The eight supporting targets are Lemmas 6.1–6.5, Lemmas 5.1–5.2, and Theorem 5.1. They concern chain-separation probability, configuration probability, the number of distinct configurations, an eventual analytic inequality, a choice of exponents, a realization with large integral optimum, the fractional optimum of every realization, and the analogous vertex-budget gap. Theorem 2.1 concerns LP1 and is outside this dependency chain.

Significance: a limitation of the fractional lower bound

The gap is a limitation of this particular LP lower bound. On the asserted instances, any guarantee comparing a returned integral solution directly with OPT_f must accommodate a factor at least as large as the displayed ratio. It does not rule out algorithms that exploit additional lower bounds or structural information. This is the interpretation given in Section 1.2.

The paper presents the result as proved. The formalization task is to supply checked proofs of the stated targets using explicit finite graphs, label cuts and fractional optimization. The current theorem declarations are open proof obligations. The reusable components include finite graph paths, label-based deletion, finite covering programs, and finite uniform permutation experiments. Distinguishing these definitions from the claimed bounds makes the result inspectable independently of the paper's argument.

Difficulty: shared labels across many paths

Ordinary edge-cut reasoning does not account for the cost sharing introduced by labels. A local deletion can remove many edges, while path constraints see the same label only once. The hard part is relating the global minimum number of labels to the concrete fractional program without replacing either optimum by a presumed bound.

The source also uses configurations derived from candidate label sets. A light ground element can have zero labels in a candidate; deleting such elements from the definition changes the subgraph whose disconnection is being measured. Distinct candidates can give the same displayed configuration. Formal statements must retain the relationship to the original candidate rather than silently identifying all associated events. Finally, real powers in the analytic estimates are not automatically integer cardinalities for graph gadgets. These are substantive interfaces between the combinatorics, probability and asymptotic statements in Sections 4–6.

Formalization scope

Finite sets use zero-based indices, which merely reindexes the source. A graph has named edges with endpoints and an orientation flag. Simple paths have injective vertex sequences. The goal requires simplicity, excludes loops and parallel edges, and counts each undirected edge once. The covering LP is a separate general definition with real variables. Its value is first an extended-real infimum; the label-cut specialization is feasible, bounded below and attained, and admissible ratio witnesses explicitly require a finite positive value.

The shutter construction is concrete. For each pair of ground elements and each chain index, a uniform independent permutation labels a chain of diamonds. Every diamond has two fresh route vertices and four edges. Internal junctions remain private to a chain; only the two global terminals are shared. For positive integer parameters k, d and h, its sizes are

m=4dh(k2),n=2+(3d−1)h(k2),∣L∣=kd.m=4dh\binom{k}{2},\qquad n=2+(3d-1)h\binom{k}{2},\qquad |L|=kd.m=4dh(2k​),n=2+(3d−1)h(2k​),∣L∣=kd.

Probabilities are exact counting ratios on the full product of permutation groups. Lemma 6.4 quantifies over all positive real beta and delta satisfying beta greater than delta minus one. The analytic vertex expression is the real extension of the displayed count, without declaring fractional numbers of vertices.

For the existential graph family, integer D with D at least 1/(3 epsilon) is an available witness when epsilon lies between zero and one third. Taking delta and beta equal to D gives integer parameters and size bounds n at most 48k^(2+3D), m at most 64k^(2+3D). With r=1/3-epsilon, possible constants are 48^(-r) for the integral bound and 2^(-D)64^(-D/(2+3D)) for the edge-budget bound; replace 64 by 48 for vertex budgets. Thresholds depend only on epsilon and must include the analytic eventuality threshold. These are witnesses to existential constants, not printed numerical constants or restrictions on Lemma 6.4. The recorded integrality issue in the source proof does not replace its theorem with a corrected target.

Selected references

  • Peng Zhang and Linqing Tang, Minimum Label s-t Cut has Large Integrality Gaps, arXiv:1908.11491v1, 2019. Pinned preprint. Definition 1.1, Theorem 1.1, Sections 3–7 and Appendix A.
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Dynamical SystemsOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: Shuze Chen

Stability of Queueing Networks IV: Stability of FIFO Networks of Kelly TypeTextbook

Stability under first-in, first-out service

In a queueing network, spare average capacity at every station does not by itself guarantee that queues remain stable. Jobs move between stations, and the service discipline affects how congestion propagates. Bramson gives examples of subcritical networks that are unstable, including examples with first-in, first-out service. The distinction matters when assessing whether a service system can sustain its offered traffic: comparing mean workloads with server capacities is useful only when the assumptions of a stability result apply. This mission concerns the class for which equal service means within each station restore that implication. The source is Bramson, Stability of Queueing Networks, Chapter 5, §5.3.

The FIFO discipline serves the oldest job at a station first. Kelly type requires that the mean service requirement be the same for all classes served at a particular station. It does not require equal service distributions, and it does not require exponential distributions. The target extends beyond the product-form setting discussed earlier in the book to general independent renewal and service primitives with finite means.

Networks, states and fluid paths

There are finitely many classes and stations. Each class belongs to one station. A completed class-kkk job moves to class lll with probability PklP_{kl}Pkl​, and otherwise exits. The routing matrix PPP is substochastic and transient, so the network is open. External arrivals have rates αk≥0\alpha_k\ge0αk​≥0, and service requirements have positive finite means mkm_kmk​. With Q=∑n≥0(PT)nQ=\sum_{n\ge0}(P^T)^nQ=∑n≥0​(PT)n, the vector λ=Qα\lambda=Q\alphaλ=Qα gives total arrival rates. The load at station jjj is

ρj=∑k:s(k)=jmkλk.\rho_j=\sum_{k:s(k)=j}m_k\lambda_k.ρj​=k:s(k)=j∑​mk​λk​.

Each station has unit capacity. A network is subcritical when every load is strictly below one. Queue lengths are unbounded. The stochastic state records ordered jobs and their ages, residual arrival clocks, residual head service requirements, and the allocation of service among classes. Its size is the sum of queue counts and residual arrival and service times. The state space is the general metric Borel space of §4.1, not a finite-state approximation.

A fluid path has six components: cumulative arrivals AAA, departures DDD, service effort TTT, workload WWW, idle time YYY, and queue mass ZZZ. They obey the basic conservation, capacity and non-idling equations. FIFO adds Dk(t+Ws(k)(t))=Zk(0)+Ak(t)D_k(t+W_{s(k)}(t))=Z_k(0)+A_k(t)Dk​(t+Ws(k)​(t))=Zk​(0)+Ak​(t). The initial departure curve retains the initial service order; queue lengths alone do not determine it. All compatible solutions are included, even when they are not unique.

Formalization targets

The capstone is Theorem 5.9. For a subcritical FIFO Kelly network, assume that every positive size sublevel is petite: a probability mixture of its transition kernels over positive times has a common nonzero measure minorant on that set. The target is

subcriticality and (5.1)⟹positive Harris recurrence.\text{subcriticality and (5.1)}\quad\Longrightarrow\quad \text{positive Harris recurrence}.subcriticality and (5.1)⟹positive Harris recurrence.

Positive Harris recurrence combines almost surely infinite occupation of sets charged by a nonzero sigma-finite irreducibility measure with the existence of an invariant probability law. The conclusion concerns the stochastic process itself.

Theorem 5.10 supplies the corresponding fluid target: one constant N>0N>0N>0 works for every solution and every initial condition, with

Z(t)=0whenevert≥N∑kZk(0).Z(t)=0\quad\text{whenever}\quad t\ge N\sum_k Z_k(0).Z(t)=0whenevert≥Nk∑​Zk​(0).

The selected Chapter 4 milestones retain six-component subsequential compactness and both clauses of the transfer theorem from fluid stability to positive Harris recurrence. The entropy milestones retain nonnegativity, the full derivative identity, and all three bounds in Proposition 5.13. Lemma 5.14 retains its scope over every subcritical basic fluid model, with a single station-emptying bound uniform in the station, time and solution.

What the statements establish

The result identifies a service-mean condition under which subcritical FIFO networks are stable for general primitive distributions. Its conclusion is stronger than an inequality for expected queue size or the stability of a chosen deterministic trajectory. The full process can have continuous residual clocks and a state space that is neither finite nor countable. These features are part of Theorem 5.9 and its Chapter 4 setting.

The formalization separates reusable objects from their properties. General queueing parameter data are referenced from the published library. New definitions describe the ordered-job state, independent primitives, event dynamics, recurrence, petite sets, fluid paths and limits. The milestone statements and capstone are open proof obligations; compilation of their declarations is not a proof of the mathematical results.

Where care is required

Small average load is not a universal stability criterion, and an exponential-service model would omit the main distributional scope of this result. Likewise, a fluid path that drains does not establish a bound uniform over every solution. The source explicitly warns against inferring an unsupported strictly negative entropy derivative whenever entropy is positive. The selected statements preserve the actual quantitative assertions rather than that stronger shortcut.

The source also contains a domain issue: its entropy expression divides by total arrival rates, although zero rates are permitted. Under the declared full-domain reading, a two-station example contradicts two inequalities of Proposition 5.13, and a two-class, one-station example gives negative entropy in Lemma 5.11. Those printed assertions remain targets. The separate finding reports the concrete evidence; adding positive rates would remove source instances. A second finding concerns a state-dependent coefficient in the proof of Lemma 5.14, not its existential uniform-bound statement.

Formalization scope

Classes and stations use finite index types, while job lists have arbitrary finite length. Times are nonnegative; real-valued paths are constrained on that half-line, with right derivatives at its endpoint. Service means are positive, but external and total arrival rates may vanish. No Poisson, phase-type, second-moment or Feller assumption is imposed. The event description retains initial residuals and job order, and Harris recurrence is defined by occupation and invariant measures, independently of the fluid conclusions.

Emptying times use extended nonnegative reals, so never emptying means infinity rather than a default real infimum of zero. The fluid equations imply bounded derivatives on bounded time intervals, ensuring the entropy integrals have their intended analytic meaning. The zero-rate entropy reading uses the displayed real expression with total division and logarithm, giving hk(x)=0h_k(x)=0hk​(x)=0 when λk=0\lambda_k=0λk​=0; it is disclosed as a reading, not a repair.

There are no big-OOO constants to instantiate in these selected results. The constants N,c2,c6N,c_2,c_6N,c2​,c6​ retain their source uniformity over initial data and solutions. The definition layer does not assume a stationary law, recurrence, fluid compactness or draining as a field of a network. Such an assumption would trivialize the mission. Further contributions can build the probability, measure-theoretic recurrence and fluid-analysis proofs on these independently specified objects.

Selected references

  • Maury Bramson, Stability of Queueing Networks, Lecture Notes in Mathematics 1950, Springer, 2008, especially §§4.1, 4.3–4.4 and 5.3. DOI.
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CombinatoricsComplexity Theory·Captain: Shuze Chen

The Complexity of Clickomania: NP-completeness with five columns and three colorsResearch Paper

Why the complexity of clearing a puzzle matters

A puzzle can have simple local rules while the choice of moves has global consequences. Clickomania, also known as Same Game, is an example: a player removes adjacent blocks of one color, and the remaining blocks move into the vacated space. The computational question asks whether a given starting position can be cleared completely. Biedl, Demaine, Demaine, Fleischer, Jacobsen and Munro study how that question changes with the number of columns and colors in The Complexity of Clickomania, arXiv:cs/0107031v1, pp. 1–2.

The distinction matters for understanding what a general puzzle solver must accomplish. A board with few columns might appear to permit a short summary of everything relevant to future moves. Likewise, a small palette limits the immediate kinds of matching blocks. The selected theorem implies that a polynomial-time algorithm deciding solvability for all boards with five columns and three available colors would imply P = NP. The subject is the one-player decision problem; maximizing a score and determining the winner of a two-player game are different questions.

The board and its legal moves

A board begins as a finite, completely filled rectangle. Each cell holds one square block whose color belongs to a finite palette. Columns are ordered from left to right, and cells within each column are ordered from bottom to top. During play, columns can have unequal heights, but there are no internal gaps.

A group is a maximal edge-connected set of blocks of one color. Blocks meeting only at corners are not adjacent. Selecting one block selects its whole monochromatic component: the player cannot choose to remove just part of a larger group. A legal click requires at least two blocks in that group. All selected blocks disappear simultaneously. Each column then settles downward while retaining the vertical order of its surviving blocks. Any column with no remaining blocks disappears, and the surviving columns close together without changing their order. These are the operational rules on p. 1 of the pinned preprint.

A board is solvable if a finite sequence of legal clicks removes every block. Newly created groups remain until another click selects them. Solvability concerns whether some successful play exists, rather than whether every sequence of choices succeeds. An already empty board is solved by the empty sequence.

Formalization targets

Let LLL be the language of valid finite encodings of solvable initial rectangular boards, and let L5,3L_{5,3}L5,3​ be the corresponding language restricted to initial width five and palette size three. The target is the complete assertion of Theorem 15, p. 11:

NPComplete⁡(L)∧NPComplete⁡(L5,3).\operatorname{NPComplete}(L)\quad\land\quad\operatorname{NPComplete}(L_{5,3}).NPComplete(L)∧NPComplete(L5,3​).

NP-completeness includes two requirements. Membership in NP means that yes-instances have polynomial-length certificates checked by a polynomial-time machine. Hardness means that every NP language over any finite nonempty alphabet has a polynomial-time many-one reduction to the puzzle language. A many-one reduction maps every input word to an output word, preserving both yes- and no-membership.

Height is any finite natural number. The palette has three available labels; a particular board may use fewer. Width five is a condition on the initial input, since empty columns disappear during play. Both complexity assertions are unconditional. The selected section has no numbered supporting results, so the mission has no additional milestone statements.

What the result and its formalization establish

The result places a precise boundary on the hope that limiting the board's width and palette automatically makes clearing it easy. The paper contrasts its hardness results with polynomial algorithms for the one-column case; those algorithms and the independent two-column, five-color theorem are outside this mission's scope (sections 2–4). The five-column, three-color assertion is retained with its numerical restrictions, rather than replaced by a less specific claim about arbitrary boards.

A completed formalization would connect the concrete game operations to a machine-based complexity classification. The present contribution supplies the definitions and the full target statement. Its definition modules and boundary checks compile, while the research theorem remains an open proof obligation. The published computational-complexity definitions are reused rather than changed to fit the puzzle.

What makes the formal proof demanding

It is not enough to exhibit boards whose intended play behaves correctly. A complexity proof must account for every legal click sequence and for the computational cost of producing and checking finite inputs. Changing group maximality, gravity or column shifting can change which boards are solvable. Similarly, a compact description of a tall repeated pattern cannot substitute for the explicitly represented blocks used to measure input size.

The source gives a construction in section 4, but its final equivalence is asserted without the detailed correctness argument, and several gadget parameters are not assigned sufficient polynomial bounds (pp. 11–14). Figure 2(a) also depicts two sentinel cells protruding above the common top line in column 4, whereas the initial model requires a full rectangle. These are missing details to reconcile in a formal proof; they do not establish that Theorem 15 is false. The target retains the printed theorem and the initial rectangle condition.

Formalization scope and conventions

The Lean model separates a finite colored grid, legal play, a general natural-number code, and the puzzle input languages. A board is an ordered list of columns of natural color labels. Missing coordinates have no color. Finite monochromatic paths define maximal components. Stable filtering implements simultaneous deletion, settling and column shifting; reflexive transitive closure expresses a finite play.

An input records width, height, palette size and every cell individually. Each natural number uses a canonical self-delimiting binary code. Dimensions and palette form the header; the payload lists cells column by column, bottom to top. A concrete decoder rejects truncated codes, noncanonical number codes, out-of-range labels, wrong cell counts and trailing data. No run-length compression is used. Unused palette entries are permitted, and declaring a large palette costs its binary representation rather than an enumeration of unused colors.

Zero-area rectangles are accepted as empty instances. Height-zero boards are normalized to the empty list while their declared width remains in the input record; a zero palette can occur only with zero area. These conventions impose no positive-height restriction. The theorem's languages are defined through this decoder and actual solvability, with no assumed verifier, assignment, reduction correctness or hardness conclusion.

The reusable CookPvsNP_defs module supplies finite-alphabet Turing machines, polynomial checking relations, NP and reductions. Polynomiality refers to input word length and actual machine steps. Contributions completing the complexity proof can build on the concrete model while preserving these conventions and both clauses of the target.

Selected references

  • Therese C. Biedl, Erik D. Demaine, Martin L. Demaine, Rudolf Fleischer, Lars Jacobsen and J. Ian Munro, The Complexity of Clickomania, arXiv preprint, 2001. arXiv:cs/0107031v1, 21 July 2001. The operational model is on p. 1; Theorem 15 and its construction are on pp. 11–14. All source numbering in this mission uses this version.
  • Stephen Cook, The P versus NP Problem, Clay Mathematics Institute problem description. Published complexity definition CookPvsNP_defs, following section 1, Definitions 3–4 and the Appendix. This is the imported formal complexity substrate, not a replacement citation for Theorem 15.
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: Shuze Chen

Markov Decision Processes (Puterman) IV: Value Iteration for Positive Bounded ModelsTextbook

Motivation: accumulated rewards without discounting

An infinite sequence of decisions can be evaluated by the rewards accumulated over its entire lifetime. This criterion is useful when future rewards should retain their full weight, rather than being multiplied by a discount factor. It also exposes questions that discounting can obscure: a policy may incur an infinite loss, a supremum need not be attained, and a dynamic programming equation may have many solutions. Chapter 7 of Puterman's Markov Decision Processes studies these issues for the expected total-reward criterion.

This mission concerns positive bounded models, a class whose name requires care. Every policy has finite expected accumulated positive reward from each initial state, and every state offers at least one action with nonnegative immediate reward. Other actions may have negative rewards. The assumptions therefore cover more than models in which every one-step reward is nonnegative. The target is the convergence theorem in §7.2.4, with its pointwise conclusion and its prescribed initialization.

Setting: histories, policies, and signed rewards

A Markov decision process here has a nonempty finite or countably infinite state space SSS. Each state sss has its own nonempty finite or countably infinite action set AsA_sAs​. Choosing a∈Asa\in A_sa∈As​ produces a real reward r(s,a)r(s,a)r(s,a) and a successor state distributed according to p(⋅∣s,a)p(\cdot\mid s,a)p(⋅∣s,a). Every transition row is a probability distribution of total mass one. Neither the transition probabilities nor the rewards depend on the decision epoch.

A history-dependent randomized policy observes all preceding states and actions, together with the current state, and assigns a probability distribution on the currently available actions. These policies form ΠHR\Pi^{HR}ΠHR. The smaller class ΠMR\Pi^{MR}ΠMR of randomized Markov policies may depend on the epoch and current state, but does not use the rest of the history. Both classes allow randomization and infinitely many decision epochs.

Write r+(s,a)=max⁡(r(s,a),0)r^+(s,a)=\max(r(s,a),0)r+(s,a)=max(r(s,a),0) and r−(s,a)=max⁡(−r(s,a),0)r^-(s,a)=\max(-r(s,a),0)r−(s,a)=max(−r(s,a),0). For initial state sss and policy π\piπ, let

v±π(s)=∑n=0∞Esπ[r±(Xn,Yn)].v^\pi_\pm(s)=\sum_{n=0}^{\infty}\mathbb E_s^\pi[r^\pm(X_n,Y_n)].v±π​(s)=n=0∑∞​Esπ​[r±(Xn​,Yn​)].

These nonnegative quantities can be infinite. Assumption 7.1.1 requires at least one of them to be finite for each policy and state, so their difference defines the total reward vπ(s)v^\pi(s)vπ(s). The optimal value is the pointwise supremum v∗(s)=sup⁡π∈ΠHRvπ(s)v^*(s)=\sup_{\pi\in\Pi^{HR}}v^\pi(s)v∗(s)=supπ∈ΠHR​vπ(s). Positive boundedness requires the positive part to be finite in every case and a nonnegative-reward action to exist at each state. No uniform bound across states is part of the definition. These conventions follow §§7.1–7.2, pp. 278–285.

Formalization targets

The first milestone is Proposition 7.1.1. Under Assumption 7.1.1, it identifies the two policy suprema separately at each state:

v∗(s)=sup⁡π∈ΠHRvπ(s)=sup⁡π∈ΠMRvπ(s).v^*(s)=\sup_{\pi\in\Pi^{HR}}v^\pi(s) =\sup_{\pi\in\Pi^{MR}}v^\pi(s).v∗(s)=π∈ΠHRsup​vπ(s)=π∈ΠMRsup​vπ(s).

This equality does not assert that a single policy attains all these suprema.

Define the Bellman operator by

(Lv)(s)=sup⁡a∈As(r(s,a)+∑tp(t∣s,a)v(t)).(\mathcal Lv)(s)=\sup_{a\in A_s}\left(r(s,a)+\sum_t p(t\mid s,a)v(t)\right).(Lv)(s)=a∈As​sup​(r(s,a)+t∑​p(t∣s,a)v(t)).

For positive bounded models, the next two milestones are Theorem 7.2.2 and Theorem 7.2.3(a). With V+V^+V+ the class of pointwise-finite nonnegative functions, their conclusions are

v∈V+,v≥Lv ⟹ v≥v∗;v\in V^+,\quad v\ge\mathcal Lv\ \Longrightarrow\ v\ge v^*;v∈V+,v≥Lv ⟹ v≥v∗; v∗∈V+,Lv∗=v∗,(v∈V+ and Lv=v)⟹v∗≤v.v^*\in V^+,\qquad \mathcal Lv^*=v^*,\qquad \bigl(v\in V^+\ \text{and}\ \mathcal Lv=v\bigr)\Longrightarrow v^*\le v.v∗∈V+,Lv∗=v∗,(v∈V+ and Lv=v)⟹v∗≤v.

The goal is Theorem 7.2.12, printed p. 294:

v0=0,vn+1=Lvn⟹vn(s)↑v∗(s)<∞(s∈S).v^0=0,\qquad v^{n+1}=\mathcal Lv^n \quad\Longrightarrow\quad v^n(s)\uparrow v^*(s)<\infty\qquad(s\in S).v0=0,vn+1=Lvn⟹vn(s)↑v∗(s)<∞(s∈S).

Every iterate is finite and nonnegative at each state. The limit is the value defined from policy rewards, not a separately chosen solution of an operator equation.

Significance: identifying which fixed point matters

The goal connects a finite sequence of Bellman updates to the infinite-horizon optimization problem. The minimal-solution milestone explains why merely finding a fixed point would not identify the optimum: other nonnegative fixed points may exist. The supersolution milestone supplies a comparison principle for proposed upper bounds. Together these statements distinguish the expected-reward meaning of the value from the algebraic properties of the operator, as in Puterman, §§7.2.1 and 7.2.4.

The mathematical results are textbook results. The work posed here is to give machine-checked proofs against explicit probability and policy definitions. The draft theorem bodies remain open proof obligations. The reusable contribution includes a countable history-policy model, signed extended total rewards, and Bellman iteration whose definition does not presuppose convergence. The mission asserts no numerical stopping rule or convergence rate.

Difficulty: limits, unbounded functions, and policy classes

Discounted contraction arguments do not apply when the discount factor is one. Pointwise finiteness also does not supply a uniform domination bound on a countable state space. Replacing all policies by stationary deterministic policies at the definition stage would change the optimization problem before any reduction theorem had been proved. Similarly, taking an ordinary real infinite sum would conceal divergent losses by assigning a default value.

The printed proof of Theorem 7.2.12 contains a further issue recorded as finding F3: its assertion that one policy realizes every finite-horizon optimum need not hold. A three-state example with incompatible first-stage choices establishes the gap. This finding concerns the argument, not the convergence statement, and does not change the goal. The two disputed supporting clauses recorded as F1 and F2 are outside the selected milestones.

Formalization scope

The Lean namespace is PutermanMDP.TotalReward. The model stores real rewards and probability mass functions. Histories store past state–action pairs in chronological order and the current state; their length is the epoch, indexed from zero. History distributions are constructed recursively by sampling actions and transitions. Expected nonnegative rewards are actual extended nonnegative sums over these distributions. Their difference and the supremum over admissible policies are taken in the extended reals. Assumption 7.1.1 excludes subtraction of two infinite reward parts.

The class V+V^+V+ is represented by extended-real functions satisfying 0≤v(s)<∞0\le v(s)<\infty0≤v(s)<∞ at every state. No closure of this entire class under Bellman is assumed. The algorithm starts at exactly zero, and the theorem proves finiteness of its orbit and finite pointwise limits. Convergence uses the extended-real order topology at a finite real limit, equivalent there to ordinary real convergence. The discrete state and action conventions come from §2.1.2, p. 18; no finite-state restriction is introduced.

No instance field assumes a Bellman solution, an optimal policy, or convergence, and the optimal value is never defined as the limit of the iterates. There are no asymptotic constants or probability tolerances to instantiate in these results. No variants are posed. Only part (a) of Theorem 7.2.3 is included; part (b) is not silently corrected. Mathlib's probability mass functions, extended real orders, nonnegative infinite sums, and filters supply the underlying libraries. Proofs connecting the recursive history laws to policy comparison and pointwise convergence are the remaining contributions sought.

Selected references

  • Martin L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994, §§2.1–2.2 and 7.1–7.2, especially pp. 280, 285–286, 294–295. DOI: 10.1002/9780470316887. All source indices refer to this artifact; its PDF pages are the printed pages plus 16.
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Production Planning by Mixed Integer Programming VI: Backlogging and Start-Up ReformulationTextbook

Motivation

Production plans often allow demand to be served late and charge a separate cost for restarting production. These choices interact: keeping a machine set up can avoid a later start-up charge, while delaying production creates backlog costs. A formulation that represents each feature separately need not give an exact linear relaxation when the features are combined. Chapter 10 of Pochet and Wolsey (2006) studies these interactions within finite-horizon, single-item lot-sizing. The target here is its joint optimization result for uncapacitated production under Wagner–Whitin carrying costs, Theorem 10.22.

The distinction between an optimization formulation and a full description of physical production plans matters. An extended linear program may determine the correct minimum cost while containing auxiliary production coordinates that do not themselves form a feasible production schedule. This mission keeps the original mixed-integer constraints and the displayed extended formulation as separate mathematical objects.

Setting

A finite-horizon lot-sizing instance has periods 1,…,n1,\ldots,n1,…,n, where n≥1n\ge1n≥1, and nonnegative demands dtd_tdt​. Production xtx_txt​ is nonnegative. Stock sts_tst​ and backlog rtr_trt​ measure material held and demand outstanding at the end of a period. The balance equation is

st−1−rt−1+xt=dt+st−rt.s_{t-1}-r_{t-1}+x_t=d_t+s_t-r_t.st−1​−rt−1​+xt​=dt​+st​−rt​.

Initial backlog is zero. Initial stock and terminal stock and backlog are nonnegative decision variables. A binary setup yty_tyt​ enables production, with xt≤Mytx_t\le My_txt​≤Myt​ and M≥∑t=1ndtM\ge\sum_{t=1}^n d_tM≥∑t=1n​dt​. Binary start-up and switch-off variables are denoted by ztz_tzt​ and wtw_twt​. In the joint model they satisfy zt−wt−1=yt−yt−1z_t-w_{t-1}=y_t-y_{t-1}zt​−wt−1​=yt​−yt−1​ and zt≤ytz_t\le y_tzt​≤yt​, with given initial setup state y0∈{0,1}y_0\in\{0,1\}y0​∈{0,1}. Switch-offs have indices 0,…,n−10,\ldots,n-10,…,n−1; in particular, w0w_0w0​ is a decision variable.

The transformed objective is

C(s,r,y,z)=∑t=0nhtst+∑t=1n(btrt+qtyt+gtzt).C(s,r,y,z)=\sum_{t=0}^n h_ts_t+\sum_{t=1}^n(b_tr_t+q_ty_t+g_tz_t).C(s,r,y,z)=t=0∑n​ht​st​+t=1∑n​(bt​rt​+qt​yt​+gt​zt​).

Wagner–Whitin costs mean that both hth_tht​ and btb_tbt​ are nonnegative. The fixed costs qt,gtq_t,g_tqt​,gt​ are real. The constant term arising when unit production costs are eliminated is omitted from both optimization problems. These conventions follow Sections 10.1 and 10.6 of the textbook.

The extended formulation adds nonnegative variables αt,βt\alpha_t,\beta_tαt​,βt​ for stock and backlog fractions. Where dt>0d_t>0dt​>0, they satisfy αt+yt+βt=1\alpha_t+y_t+\beta_t=1αt​+yt​+βt​=1. The displayed system also links adjacent backlog fractions and imposes stock and backlog inequalities over every interval. Its domains relax the three binary vectors to unit boxes. These inequalities define the set directly; no hull or integrality property is built into its definition.

Formalization targets

Three source milestones describe the start-up component. Observation 10.3 states, for an exact setup/start-up plan and 1≤k<t≤n1\le k<t\le n1≤k<t≤n,

yk+∑j=k+1tzj=0  ⟺  yk=⋯=yt=0.y_k+\sum_{j=k+1}^t z_j=0\iff y_k=\cdots=y_t=0.yk​+j=k+1∑t​zj​=0⟺yk​=⋯=yt​=0.

The next milestone is the displayed stock inequality (10.11), valid for the original uncapacitated model without backlogging:

sk−1≥∑u=kldu(1−yk−∑j=k+1uzj).s_{k-1}\ge\sum_{u=k}^l d_u\left(1-y_k-\sum_{j=k+1}^u z_j\right).sk−1​≥u=k∑l​du​​1−yk​−j=k+1∑u​zj​​.

Theorem 10.15 asserts that these inequalities, the two listed start-up inequalities, and the stated stock/setup bounds describe the convex hull of the Wagner–Whitin start-up set. The faithful item retains the printed omission of a lower bound on zzz. A two-period counterexample is recorded, and a separate corrected target adds z≥0z\ge0z≥0.

The goal, Theorem 10.22 on printed page 331, concerns the joint model. If X(y0,d,M)X(y_0,d,M)X(y0​,d,M) is its original mixed-integer feasible set and Q(y0,d)Q(y_0,d)Q(y0​,d) its displayed extended formulation, then

min⁡p∈X(y0,d,M)C(p)=min⁡v∈Q(y0,d)C(v),\min_{p\in X(y_0,d,M)}C(p)=\min_{v\in Q(y_0,d)}C(v),p∈X(y0​,d,M)min​C(p)=v∈Q(y0​,d)min​C(v),

with both minima attained. The statement asks for feasible minimizers in both problems, equality of their costs, and universal optimality inequalities. It does not assume the conclusion as a property of either feasible set. The source statements and their roles are in Chapter 10, Sections 10.4 and 10.6.

Significance

The joint result identifies a linear formulation that solves a planning model with both late service and start-up decisions. Its meaning is objective-specific: nonnegative transformed carrying costs are part of the result. The milestone hull statement, by contrast, concerns equality of entire sets in stock/setup/start-up coordinates and retains their unbounded nonnegative stock directions.

The formal development provides explicit finite coordinate spaces, original feasibility predicates, the extended constraints, and an attained-optimum statement. The theorem items are open formalization targets; compiling their statements does not prove them. The source presents the joint optimization result as established, whereas the literal wording of the start-up hull milestone has the documented defect. Keeping those statuses distinct prevents the corrected variant from obscuring what the textbook actually states.

Difficulty

Separate stock and backlog conditions must agree with the same setup and start-up decisions. A hull description for one component alone does not establish the joint optimization statement. Nor does equality of feasible objective infima by itself supply the attained minima required here. The original formulation includes production balances, while the extended formulation displayed on pages 330–331 omits them and leaves its nonnegative production coordinate unused.

There are also source conventions to resolve explicitly. The joint display omits the domains of α,β\alpha,\betaα,β and abbreviates adjacent-period ranges as “for all ttt.” Their nonnegative fraction domains are inherited from Section 10.2.3, and the adjacency range here is 1≤t<n1\le t<n1≤t<n. These choices are disclosed for review. Theorem 10.15's missing z≥0z\ge0z≥0 has a concrete counterexample and is expected to be disproved as printed; it must not be used as an unquestioned established lemma.

Formalization scope

Period arrays use finite index types of size nnn, with a one-based accessor; switch-off arrays use the zero-based labels 0,…,n−10,\ldots,n-10,…,n−1. The setup accessor supplies the given binary y0y_0y0​ at time zero, as specified on printed page 138. Stock and backlog arrays have size n+1n+1n+1, including index zero. Accessors return zero outside their declared ranges, and empty interval sums are zero. Every substantive theorem restricts its interval indices to the stated horizon. Demand may vanish in some or all periods; the fraction partition is imposed only where demand is positive. No terminal switch-off coordinate or condition is added, and terminal stock and backlog are not forced to vanish.

The definition layer contains real bodies and no proof placeholders. It uses Mathlib finite sums, real vector spaces, sets, and convex hulls. The original feasible sets are defined from their constraints rather than from the hull or LP theorem being sought; the goal is not specialized to zero demand or a singleton horizon. No asymptotic complexity theorem is selected, so there is no replacement of an O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) claim by a constant.

Beyond the paper. One corrected variant of Theorem 10.15 adds only z≥0z\ge0z≥0. The evidence is the instance y0=0y_0=0y0​=0, n=2n=2n=2, d=(0,0)d=(0,0)d=(0,0), s=0s=0s=0, y=(1,0)y=(1,0)y=(1,0), z=(1,−1)z=(1,-1)z=(1,−1), which satisfies the printed inequalities but cannot belong to the hull of binary-start-up points. The faithful item remains the milestone. The proposed corrected hull requires its own proof.

The shortest-path and facility-location companion hulls, Theorems 10.2 and 10.14, are outside this mission's selected targets. Theorem 10.3 is also omitted: its printed projection includes an eliminated production coordinate, whose relationship to the stock/backlog ambient space is unresolved in the source wording. The joint formulation itself is transcribed directly, so these omissions do not alter the goal.

Selected references

  • Yves Pochet and Laurence A. Wolsey, Production Planning by Mixed Integer Programming, Springer, 2006, Chapter 10, especially Sections 10.1, 10.2.3, 10.4.2–10.4.3, and 10.6. DOI: 10.1007/0-387-33477-7.
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Markov Decision Processes (Puterman) I: Backward Induction and Optimal PoliciesTextbook

Decisions over a finite planning horizon

Inventory replenishment, equipment replacement, and resource allocation require decisions whose consequences continue beyond the current period. A choice can earn an immediate reward and change the distribution of future opportunities. Comparing only immediate rewards therefore does not generally identify a good policy. A finite-horizon Markov decision process describes these interactions when the planning period has a fixed end. Chapter 4 of Puterman's Markov Decision Processes develops the expected total reward criterion and the backward induction method for this setting.

The central question is whether a calculation indexed only by the current state and time can compete with policies that remember every previous observation and randomize their decisions. This mission targets the chapter's answer, Theorem 4.5.1, together with the evaluation and optimality results supporting it. The comparison is made at every initial state and at every continuation history, rather than for one prescribed starting distribution.

States, histories, and rewards

Let SSS be a nonempty finite or countable state space. For each state sss, let AsA_sAs​ be a nonempty set of available actions. Write HHH for the number of decisions: actions are taken at epochs 0,…,H−10,\ldots,H-10,…,H−1, followed by a terminal epoch HHH. This shifts Puterman's epochs 1,…,N1,\ldots,N1,…,N by one, so H=N−1H=N-1H=N−1. Choosing a∈Asa\in A_sa∈As​ at epoch ttt earns a real reward rt(s,a)r_t(s,a)rt​(s,a) and gives the next state distribution pt(⋅∣s,a)p_t(\cdot\mid s,a)pt​(⋅∣s,a). The terminal reward is g(s)g(s)g(s). Rewards can have either sign and share a finite absolute bound, as in §4.1.2 of the source.

A history ht=(s0,a0,…,st−1,at−1,st)h_t=(s_0,a_0,\ldots,s_{t-1},a_{t-1},s_t)ht​=(s0​,a0​,…,st−1​,at−1​,st​) records the observed states and actions. A history-dependent randomized policy assigns a probability mass function on AstA_{s_t}Ast​​ to every such history. Its continuation value is

utπ(ht)=Ehtπ[∑k=tH−1rk(Xk,Yk)+g(XH)].u_t^\pi(h_t)=\mathbb E^\pi_{h_t}\left[\sum_{k=t}^{H-1}r_k(X_k,Y_k)+g(X_H)\right].utπ​(ht​)=Eht​π​[k=t∑H−1​rk​(Xk​,Yk​)+g(XH​)].

The expectation uses the action and transition kernels from that history onward. It remains defined when the history has zero probability under the policy. The total value vπ(s)v^\pi(s)vπ(s) is the continuation value at the initial history consisting of sss alone. A deterministic Markov policy chooses an admissible action using only the current epoch and state. Such a policy may vary with time; stationarity is not required.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 4.5.1, printed pages 92–93. Suppose an array UUU satisfies the terminal initialization and the backward induction equations

U(H,s)=g(s),U(t,s)=max⁡a∈As{rt(s,a)+∑jpt(j∣s,a)U(t+1,j)}.U(H,s)=g(s),\qquad U(t,s)=\max_{a\in A_s}\left\{r_t(s,a)+\sum_jp_t(j\mid s,a)U(t+1,j)\right\}.U(H,s)=g(s),U(t,s)=a∈As​max​{rt​(s,a)+j∑​pt​(j∣s,a)U(t+1,j)}.

For every history ending in sts_tst​, the target asserts

U(t,st)=sup⁡π∈ΠHRutπ(ht).U(t,s_t)=\sup_{\pi\in\Pi^{HR}}u_t^\pi(h_t).U(t,st​)=π∈ΠHRsup​utπ​(ht​).

Let As,t∗A^*_{s,t}As,t∗​ contain all maximizing actions in the displayed equation. Every deterministic Markov rule selecting an element of As,t∗A^*_{s,t}As,t∗​ is optimal against all admissible randomized history-dependent policies, with both its total and continuation values equal to the corresponding computed values.

Four numbered milestones support this target. Theorem 4.2.2 identifies randomized policy evaluation with the expected reward criterion. Theorem 4.3.2 identifies solutions of the supremum optimality equations with the optimal values. Theorem 4.3.3 verifies deterministic history policies selecting maximizing actions. Theorem 4.4.2 states that the solution depends only on current state and time, establishes deterministic Markov ε\varepsilonε-optimal policies for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, and gives exact optimality when maxima are attained. All clauses of these results are retained.

What the results establish

Backward induction gives values at every continuation epoch as well as an optimal initial decision. Its selector conclusion also permits ties: more than one action may maximize the same one-step expression, and any selection from the maximizing sets has the asserted value. The distinction between exact and approximate optimality matters for infinite action sets. Nonemptiness alone does not imply that an action attains a supremum; the goal keeps the chapter's attained-maximum premise. These are classical results proved in Puterman, §§4.2–4.5, not new mathematical conjectures.

The formalization supplies a common interface for histories, admissibility, reward distributions, and Bellman equations. Its proposed theorem statements are compiled targets with proofs still to be supplied. A kernel construction of the reward law separates probabilistic semantics from the evaluation recursion. This separation makes the identity asserted by policy evaluation substantive and provides a basis for later applications with different transition and reward data.

Mathematical and formal difficulties

The comparison class contains policies that use the entire observed history, while the algorithm stores a value only for a state and epoch. Restricting the comparison class in advance would remove a central claim. Countably many next states also require infinite sums, and an infinite action set can have a finite supremum without a maximizing action. The existence of approximate policies and the existence of exact selectors must therefore remain separate assertions.

Conditional values at impossible histories are another important boundary. Conditioning by a quotient of event probabilities would introduce an undefined denominator there. The continuation law instead has the current history as its input. Signed rewards require genuine finite expectations; the uniform bound and finite horizon provide that domain. The standalone wording of Lemma 4.3.1 raises an expectation-domain issue recorded in the local findings, so that lemma is not separately posed here.

Formalization scope

The model covers the bounded-reward discrete setting of §4.1.2. States are countable, actions are arbitrary types with nonempty state-dependent admissible subsets, and randomized actions are probability mass functions. It does not develop the extensions to nondiscrete measurable action kernels or general state spaces mentioned after Theorem 4.5.1. All values in the selected setting are real. No asymptotic constants or failure probabilities occur in the selected statements, so no replacements for O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) are needed.

Histories use a chronological list of past state-action pairs and a current state. Rules are extended beyond the horizon only to simplify their types; theorems restrict every continuation to an epoch at or before termination. The zero-decision case has only its terminal reward. Genuine supremum equations use least-upper-bound predicates, and maximum equations use greatest-element predicates that retain attainment. The maximizing sets are computed from the one-step expressions. Optimality is defined by comparison of actual expected rewards, never by Bellman solvability or an assumed value oracle.

The reusable ingredients are the model and policy interface, the policy-induced reward law and criterion, and the one-step optimality predicates. Mathlib supplies probability mass functions, real integration, infinite sums, and order-theoretic extrema. The scope excludes the chapter's separate monotonicity theory, its numerical examples, and its exercises. No variant theorem is posed. The findings record an expectation-domain issue, the necessity of attainment, and a strict-inequality discrepancy on p. 79. The epsilon-optimality predicate uses the strict supremum inequality printed after (4.1.9). This is stronger than the competitor-wise wording of (4.1.7) when the supremum is not attained; the existence conclusion for every positive epsilon in Theorem 4.4.2 is equivalent under either convention.

Selected references

  • Martin L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994, Chapter 4, especially §§4.1–4.5, printed pages 74–93. Chapter DOI. The pinned supplied artifact has PDF pages 90–109 for these pages and carries 1994, 2005 copyright.
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Markov Decision Processes (Puterman) II: Markov Policies Preserve Reward CriteriaTextbook

Motivation

A controller making repeated decisions can remember every state visited and every action taken. The resulting policy class is much larger than the class of rules that use only the current state and time. In applications modeled by Markov decision processes, understanding whether that extra memory changes achievable expected rewards determines which policy classes must be considered. Chapter 5 of Puterman's Markov Decision Processes establishes a precise distributional comparison: for a fixed starting state, every history-dependent randomized policy has a randomized Markov replacement with the same state-action distribution at every decision epoch.

The qualification about the starting state matters. A replacement can depend on that state, and a replacement for a prescribed initial distribution can depend on the distribution. The comparison also retains randomization. A deterministic history policy need not have a deterministic Markov replacement with the same marginals.

Setting

A stationary Markov decision process has a nonempty finite or countable state space SSS. Each state sss has a nonempty finite or countable set AsA_sAs​ of available actions. Choosing a∈Asa\in A_sa∈As​ gives a real reward r(s,a)r(s,a)r(s,a) and a next state distributed according to p(⋅∣s,a)p(\cdot\mid s,a)p(⋅∣s,a). The action sets, rewards, and transition probabilities are independent of the decision epoch. These are the standing data of Chapter 5, printed pages 119–120 of Puterman.

A history-dependent randomized policy chooses a distribution on available actions using the full observable history of states and actions. A randomized Markov policy uses only the current state and the decision epoch; it is not required to be stationary. Given an initial distribution μ\muμ, let XtX_tXt​ and YtY_tYt​ denote the state and chosen action at epoch ttt. Their state-action marginal is the joint distribution at that one epoch. It does not specify correlations between different epochs.

Two ancillary results use bounded rewards, meaning a common finite bound on ∣r(s,a)∣|r(s,a)|∣r(s,a)∣ for all available state-action pairs. For such rewards, discounted returns are real numbers when the discount factor is less than one. The space VVV consists of real functions on SSS with a uniform finite bound.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 5.5.1, printed page 134 of Puterman. For every history-dependent policy π\piπ,

∀s∈S  ∃π′∈ΠMR  ∀t≥1, j∈S, a∈Aj,Pr⁡sπ′(Xt=j,Yt=a)=Pr⁡sπ(Xt=j,Yt=a).\forall s\in S\;\exists\pi'\in\Pi^{MR}\;\forall t\ge1,\ j\in S,\ a\in A_j, \quad \Pr_s^{\pi'}(X_t=j,Y_t=a)=\Pr_s^\pi(X_t=j,Y_t=a).∀s∈S∃π′∈ΠMR∀t≥1, j∈S, a∈Aj​,sPrπ′​(Xt​=j,Yt​=a)=sPrπ​(Xt​=j,Yt​=a).

The same infinite sequence of Markov rules must satisfy every equality. There is no horizon-dependent choice of replacement in this statement. Corollary 5.5.2, printed page 135, supplies the companion target for an arbitrary fixed initial distribution μ\muμ:

∃π′∈ΠMR  ∀t,j,a,Pr⁡μπ′(Xt=j,Yt=a)=Pr⁡μπ(Xt=j,Yt=a).\exists\pi'\in\Pi^{MR}\;\forall t,j,a, \quad \Pr_\mu^{\pi'}(X_t=j,Y_t=a)=\Pr_\mu^\pi(X_t=j,Y_t=a).∃π′∈ΠMR∀t,j,a,μPrπ′​(Xt​=j,Yt​=a)=μPrπ​(Xt​=j,Yt​=a).

Two supporting targets describe the reward framework around this comparison. Proposition 5.3.1, printed page 126, states that under bounded rewards an independent geometric horizon with Pr⁡(ν=n)=(1−β)βn−1\Pr(\nu=n)=(1-\beta)\beta^{n-1}Pr(ν=n)=(1−β)βn−1 has the same expected return as discounting:

vνπ(s)=vβπ(s),0≤β<1.v_\nu^\pi(s)=v_\beta^\pi(s),\qquad 0\le\beta<1.vνπ​(s)=vβπ​(s),0≤β<1.

Lemma 5.6.1, printed page 138, states that bounded one-step policy evaluation remains bounded:

u∈V⟹rd+βPdu∈V,0≤β≤1.u\in V\quad\Longrightarrow\quad r_d+\beta P_du\in V, \qquad 0\le\beta\le1.u∈V⟹rd​+βPd​u∈V,0≤β≤1.

These ancillary targets share the model and reward definitions; they are not asserted to be logical prerequisites of the marginal theorem. The initial-distribution corollary is a companion extension of that theorem.

Significance

The marginal theorem identifies which distributional information can be retained when replacing a history policy. Expected single-period rewards depend on this information, as do bounded discounted criteria. Puterman uses the result as the foundation for the comparison of reward criteria in Theorem 5.5.3 on printed page 137. The full unbounded and extended-valued reward comparison is outside the present target; its treatment requires additional care about existence of the relevant expectations and limits.

The formalization supplies reusable history laws, admissible randomized policies, and their state-action marginals on countable state spaces. These objects are useful beyond any particular reward function. The mathematical results are established textbook results, not new conjectures. The theorem declarations in this mission are proof obligations; compilation checks their formulations and does not constitute a machine-checked proof of the results.

Difficulty

Remembering only the current state can discard information that affected the original controller's choice. Deterministically selecting one action at that state can therefore destroy the action marginal. Likewise, matching a reward value at one fixed horizon does not meet the requirement of one replacement policy preserving every epoch. The quantifiers and the admissible policy class are substantive parts of the target.

The source allows countably many states. Probability normalization, support restrictions, and infinite sums must consequently remain valid without reducing the model to a finite transition matrix. Null histories must also have legal decision rules, even though their choices do not influence the generated law. Finding F3 records that the printed construction (5.5.2) leaves the zero-probability conditioning case unspecified; the existence statement remains the target. The ancillary reward statements require convergence justification; a total real summation operation alone cannot replace the boundedness assumptions.

Formalization scope

The Lean namespace is PutermanMDP.MarkovPolicies. The state space is nonempty and countable, including finite spaces. The ambient action type is unrestricted, but each available action set is finite or countable, retaining the standing convention in §2.1.2 (printed p. 18). Randomized rules are probability mass functions on these available sets; continuous action kernels are not represented. Available action sets are explicitly nonempty. Transition rows are PMFs, so normalization and nonnegativity are part of their type.

Histories store past state-action pairs newest first, together with the current state. Lean time zero is printed epoch one. Finite-history laws are generated recursively from the supplied initial distribution, history policy, and transition rows. The goal compares their computed marginals; neither marginal preservation nor the existence of a Markov replacement is assumed as model data.

Reward definitions are used only in their bounded real-valued regime. A return over NNN reward periods has zero terminal reward and corresponds to the book's vN+1v_{N+1}vN+1​. The geometric horizon is positive-integer valued and independent, encoded by averaging fixed-horizon expected returns with its specified probabilities. The discount factor is named β\betaβ in Lean. No asymptotic notation or unspecified constants occur, and no replacement of a source O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) estimate is needed.

Mathlib's PMFs, nonnegative extended probabilities, real series, and finite sums provide the underlying libraries. Contributions should establish the stated marginal and bounded-reward results without assuming a limiting average reward or equality of whole trajectory laws. No variant theorem is posed.

Selected references

  • Martin L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994, Chapter 5, especially Proposition 5.3.1, Theorem 5.5.1, Corollary 5.5.2, and Lemma 5.6.1. DOI. The pinned source uses printed page ppp at PDF page p+16p+16p+16.
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Production Planning by Mixed Integer Programming V: Intersecting Constant-Capacity Lot-Sizing HullsTextbook

Motivation: capacity limits across a planning horizon

A production plan must meet demand on time while deciding which periods justify a setup. When each active period can supply at most the same amount, the capacity limit links setup decisions to cumulative demand. A linear relaxation that treats those decisions as fractional may admit plans that cannot be assembled from feasible binary setup schedules. Understanding the exact convex hull identifies which linear inequalities capture all of those restrictions. Chapter 9 of Pochet and Wolsey (2006) develops this question for several capacitated lot-sizing models.

The present target concerns the Wagner–Whitin feasible relaxation with constant capacity. It asks whether separately convexifying every initial-stock subproblem loses information when those hulls are intersected. This is a structural question about production-planning formulations, relevant before choosing particular setup and inventory costs. The selected results connect rounded demand requirements, a single continuous initial-stock variable, and the full collection of stock coordinates.

Setting: setups, demand, and entering stock

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 periods, indexed in the mathematical notation by 1,…,n1,\ldots,n1,…,n. Demand in period ttt is a real number dt≥0d_t\ge0dt​≥0, and the common capacity is C>0C>0C>0. The chapter preprocesses demands so that dt≤Cd_t\le Cdt​≤C; this convention is retained. Write dkt=∑u=ktdud_{kt}=\sum_{u=k}^t d_udkt​=∑u=kt​du​. A setup vector y∈{0,1}ny\in\{0,1\}^ny∈{0,1}n records which periods are available for production. Each active period contributes capacity CCC.

The discrete lot-sizing set consists of binary vectors satisfying C∑u=1tyu≥d1tC\sum_{u=1}^t y_u\ge d_{1t}C∑u=1t​yu​≥d1t​ at every period. Its initial-stock version has an additional decision s0≥0s_0\ge0s0​≥0 and covering rows s0+C∑u=1tyu≥d1ts_0+C\sum_{u=1}^t y_u\ge d_{1t}s0​+C∑u=1t​yu​≥d1t​. These are the original formulations in Sections 9.3 and 9.4 of the book, rather than definitions using the hull inequalities being sought.

For the larger Wagner–Whitin set, retain stocks s0,…,sn≥0s_0,\ldots,s_n\ge0s0​,…,sn​≥0 and the same binary setup vector. Every interval obeys

sk−1+C∑u=ktyu≥dkt,1≤k≤t≤n.s_{k-1}+C\sum_{u=k}^t y_u\ge d_{kt},\qquad 1\le k\le t\le n.sk−1​+Cu=k∑t​yu​≥dkt​,1≤k≤t≤n.

Denote this set by XWW−CCX^{\mathrm{WW-CC}}XWW−CC. Its component XkDLSI−CCX_k^{\mathrm{DLSI-CC}}XkDLSI−CC​ retains only the interval rows beginning at kkk, while retaining every stock coordinate and every binary setup coordinate. All components therefore occupy the same ambient space. Neither endpoint stock is fixed to zero.

Formalization targets

The first milestone, Proposition 9.2, asserts that every feasible discrete setup vector satisfies

∑u=1tyu≥⌈d1t/C⌉.\sum_{u=1}^t y_u\ge\left\lceil d_{1t}/C\right\rceil.u=1∑t​yu​≥⌈d1t​/C⌉.

The second, Theorem 9.3, gives the complete discrete hull:

conv⁡(XDLS−CC)={y∈[0,1]n:∑u=1tyu≥⌈d1t/C⌉ for every t}.\operatorname{conv}(X^{\mathrm{DLS-CC}}) =\{y\in[0,1]^n:\sum_{u=1}^t y_u\ge\lceil d_{1t}/C\rceil\text{ for every }t\}.conv(XDLS−CC)={y∈[0,1]n:u=1∑t​yu​≥⌈d1t​/C⌉ for every t}.

The explicit nonemptiness assumption in Section 9.3 is preserved for these two statements.

Theorem 9.4 is the third milestone. Put bt=d1t/Cb_t=d_{1t}/Cbt​=d1t​/C and ft=bt−⌊bt⌋f_t=b_t-\lfloor b_t\rfloorft​=bt​−⌊bt​⌋. For each nonempty subset T={i1,…,ir}T=\{i_1,\ldots,i_r\}T={i1​,…,ir​} ordered by nondecreasing fractional parts, with fi0=0f_{i_0}=0fi0​​=0, define

RT(y)=C∑τ=1r(fiτ−fiτ−1)(⌊biτ⌋+1−∑u=1iτyu).R_T(y)=C\sum_{\tau=1}^r(f_{i_\tau}-f_{i_{\tau-1}}) \left(\lfloor b_{i_\tau}\rfloor+1-\sum_{u=1}^{i_\tau}y_u\right).RT​(y)=Cτ=1∑r​(fiτ​​−fiτ−1​​)(⌊biτ​​⌋+1−u=1∑iτ​​yu​).

Its hull description retains the original covering rows, nonnegative initial stock, and setup bounds, and adds both families

s0≥RT(y),s0≥RT(y)+C(1−fir)(⌊bi1⌋−∑u=1i1yu).s_0\ge R_T(y),\qquad s_0\ge R_T(y)+C(1-f_{i_r})\left(\lfloor b_{i_1}\rfloor-\sum_{u=1}^{i_1}y_u\right).s0​≥RT​(y),s0​≥RT​(y)+C(1−fir​​)(⌊bi1​​⌋−u=1∑i1​​yu​).

All fractional-part ties are permitted. These targets are Proposition 9.2 and Theorems 9.3–9.4, printed pages 276 and 280.

The goal is Theorem 9.8, printed page 283:

conv⁡(XWW−CC)=⋂k=1nconv⁡(XkDLSI−CC).\operatorname{conv}(X^{\mathrm{WW-CC}}) =\bigcap_{k=1}^n\operatorname{conv}(X_k^{\mathrm{DLSI-CC}}).conv(XWW−CC)=k=1⋂n​conv(XkDLSI−CC​).

It is an equality of full feasible hulls, not merely equality of selected objective values.

Significance: compatible constituent hulls

The goal states that the separate initial-stock descriptions retain enough information to describe the joint feasible hull. Together with the one-stock description, it connects explicit mixing inequalities to the full constant-capacity formulation. The interpretation and subsequent inequality descriptions are developed in Section 9.5.2.

The mathematical results are textbook claims, not newly proposed conjectures. The remaining work is to supply machine-checked proofs of the stated identities and validity result. The definition layer gives reusable original feasible sets and explicit cut families. The theorem files are checked Lean statements with proof placeholders; successful compilation does not certify these mathematical claims. A completed development would make the distinction between model constraints and hull consequences explicit and available for later production-planning formalizations.

Difficulty: convexification and intersection

Convexification does not in general commute with intersection. Knowing the hull of each constituent therefore does not establish the reverse inclusion in the goal. Every component here shares the same setup vector, while constraining a different entering-stock coordinate. Dropping that shared-coordinate structure changes the question. Likewise, the one-stock hull cannot be described faithfully by rounding each original row independently: Theorem 9.4 specifies two families indexed by subsets with an order determined by fractional parts.

The source states Theorem 9.8 in this section without a full proof. No missing numbered lemma is invented. The general mixing results in Chapter 8 remain separate source results; their proofs may provide supporting infrastructure without duplicating their statements here.

Formalization scope

Lean uses Fin n for periods, with coordinate jjj corresponding to printed period j+1j+1j+1. Stock coordinates use Fin (n+1) with the printed indices unchanged. Setups are real coordinates restricted to zero or one in the original sets; hull coordinates are real. The constant capacity is strictly positive in every theorem. Demands may vanish, all-zero demand is permitted, and a one-period horizon is included. The feasible sets retain their unbounded stock directions.

Nonempty subsets in the cut families are injective enumerations of Fin (m+1). Nondecreasing fractional parts allow every tie ordering; chronological order is not required. The initial zero fractional-part predecessor is represented by a separate first summand. Ordinary real convex hulls are used throughout, with no added closure operation. There are no complexity targets or asymptotic constants in scope.

The model sets are defined from their original inequalities, never by a claimed hull description, an assumed integrality property, or a special zero-demand instance. Theorems expand their sets and cut formulas so the displayed constraints can be audited directly. Mathlib supplies real arithmetic, finite sums, integer rounding, and convex hulls. Contributions completing the four proofs or establishing reusable finite-dimensional mixing machinery are within this scope. No variant theorem is included; the recorded zero-cost issue in Proposition 9.6 concerns an omitted optimization result.

Selected references

  • Yves Pochet and Laurence A. Wolsey, Production Planning by Mixed Integer Programming, Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering, Springer, 2006. DOI: 10.1007/0-387-33477-7. Chapter 9, especially Sections 9.3–9.5.2, printed pages 276–283; PDF pages 289–296 in the pinned source.
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Production Planning by Mixed Integer Programming III: The Wagner–Whitin Convex HullTextbook

Motivation: production timing with setup costs

A production planner must meet demand over several periods while deciding when to incur fixed setup costs. Producing early can combine several periods into one batch, but the resulting inventory carries a holding cost. Even for one item without a capacity limit, continuous production quantities interact with discrete setup decisions. An exact linear formulation offers a way to study those decisions without discarding their economic meaning. Chapter 7 of Pochet and Wolsey, Production Planning by Mixed Integer Programming develops this problem and its formulations.

This mission concerns Wagner–Whitin costs, where postponing production to a later available setup cannot increase the variable cost. In the stock-based objective used here, this condition is expressed by nonnegative holding costs. The central question is whether a compact collection of stock inequalities describes precisely the convex hull of the feasible mixed integer set. The target is Theorem 7.10, including its geometric equality and its consequence for optimization.

Setting: demand, stock, setups, and intervals

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 periods and a real demand dt≥0d_t\ge0dt​≥0 in each period. Production xtx_txt​ and end-of-period stock sts_tst​ are nonnegative real quantities. A setup variable yty_tyt​ takes value zero or one, with production permitted only when it is one. In the ordinary lot-sizing model, stock balance is

st−1+xt=dt+st.s_{t-1}+x_t=d_t+s_t.st−1​+xt​=dt​+st​.

The original feasible set XLS−UX^{LS-U}XLS−U also requires xt≤Mytx_t\le My_txt​≤Myt​, with MMM sufficiently large, and fixes s0=sn=0s_0=s_n=0s0​=sn​=0. The transformed objective is px+qypx+qypx+qy, where ppp incorporates holding costs and qqq is the fixed setup cost. Costs can be negative, so a setup with no production must remain possible. These are the conventions of Sections 7.1–7.2 of the source.

Write dkl=∑j=kldjd_{kl}=\sum_{j=k}^l d_jdkl​=∑j=kl​dj​ for cumulative demand. The shortest-path formulation introduces a nonnegative variable φut\varphi_{ut}φut​ for each interval [u,t][u,t][u,t]. Its flow moves one unit through a network with nodes 1,…,n+11,\ldots,n+11,…,n+1. Interval flow determines production, and flow on intervals with positive demand is bounded by the corresponding setup variable. Existential elimination of the flow variables gives its projection onto production and setup coordinates.

For the Wagner–Whitin target, the variables instead are (s,y)(s,y)(s,y). Initial stock is a decision variable, and terminal stock is nonnegative. Define PWW−UP^{WW-U}PWW−U by s≥0s\ge0s≥0, 0≤y≤10\le y\le10≤y≤1, and

sk−1≥∑j=kldj(1−∑u=kjyu)(1≤k≤l≤n).s_{k-1}\ge\sum_{j=k}^l d_j\left(1-\sum_{u=k}^j y_u\right)\qquad(1\le k\le l\le n).sk−1​≥j=k∑l​dj​(1−u=k∑j​yu​)(1≤k≤l≤n).

The mixed integer set XWW−UX^{WW-U}XWW−U adds integrality of yyy to these same constraints. This is the explicit formulation (7.30)–(7.32), not the zero-initial-stock set XLS−UX^{LS-U}XLS−U.

Formalization targets

The first two milestones are companion formulation results. Theorem 7.8 states that the shortest-path linear program attains an optimum with integral setups and that the resulting production and setup vectors extend to an optimal ordinary lot-sizing plan. Theorem 7.9 identifies the entire projection:

proj⁡x,yQSP−U=proj⁡x,yconv⁡(XLS−U).\operatorname{proj}_{x,y}Q^{SP-U}=\operatorname{proj}_{x,y}\operatorname{conv}(X^{LS-U}).projx,y​QSP−U=projx,y​conv(XLS−U).

Observation 7.12 supplies the third milestone. It equates the stock inequality above with

sk−1+∑j=kldjlyj≥dkl.s_{k-1}+\sum_{j=k}^l d_{jl}y_j\ge d_{kl}.sk−1​+j=k∑l​djl​yj​≥dkl​.

Under zero initial stock and the balance equations, it also equates this with the corresponding inequality expressed through cumulative production. That endpoint assumption belongs to this rewriting, not to the goal's stock variables.

The goal is Theorem 7.10:

PWW−U=conv⁡(XWW−U).P^{WW-U}=\operatorname{conv}(X^{WW-U}).PWW−U=conv(XWW−U).

It also states that, for every h≥0h\ge0h≥0 and every real qqq, any optimal extreme point for hs+qyhs+qyhs+qy over PWW−UP^{WW-U}PWW−U solves the mixed integer formulation. The geometric assertion does not carry cost assumptions. The shortest-path milestones provide companion results on the same demand model; they are not presented as the direct proof of the goal.

Significance: an exact continuous description

The hull equality describes every fractional point obtainable by convex combination of feasible mixed integer plans. It is stronger than agreement of two objectives for one chosen cost vector. The optimization clause then identifies the role of extreme points when the cost condition holds. Section 7.5 of the source uses this formulation to distinguish the Wagner–Whitin regime from general uncapacitated lot-sizing costs.

The formalization supplies explicit interfaces for stock balance, triangular interval flows, projected feasible sets, and attained optimality. These are reusable in comparisons between formulations. The mathematical results are textbook claims; this proposal contains compiled theorem statements awaiting proofs, not newly established machine-checked proofs. Definitions have complete bodies, and every theorem states the claimed conclusion without taking that conclusion as an assumption.

Difficulty: mixed integrality and unbounded stock

Integral setups do not imply integral stock when demands are arbitrary real numbers. Moreover, the stock formulation is unbounded in nonnegative stock directions. Replacing it with a bounded polytope, fixing initial stock, or assuming stock minimality would change the result. The full hull, including its unbounded directions, is part of the target.

The proof on printed page 231 needs particular scrutiny. Its assertion of integrality for the full extended polyhedron does not hold for fractional demand, and the equality linking stock to demand-weighted auxiliary variables requires care when an entire demand tail vanishes. Numerical witnesses for both issues are recorded in the mission's findings. These observations concern the printed argument; the goal retains Theorem 7.10 without positive-demand or integer-demand restrictions.

Formalization scope

All vectors are finite-dimensional real vectors. Production and setup periods use Fin n; stock and flow nodes use Fin (n+1). A period index in Lean is one less than its printed index. Interval arcs contain only pairs with the start no later than the end, so there are no unconstrained extra flow coordinates. Theorems require a positive horizon and allow zero demand, including an entirely zero demand vector.

For the ordinary lot-sizing comparisons, M>0M>0M>0 and M≥∑tdtM\ge\sum_t d_tM≥∑t​dt​ make the source's large-bound convention explicit. The domain x≥0x\ge0x≥0 follows the production interpretation and equation (7.47); the missing nonnegativity marker in printed equation (7.4) is disclosed as finding F1. Negative fixed costs remain allowed. No running-time theorem is selected, so there is no asymptotic constant to instantiate.

The goal defines both feasible sets from the printed inequalities and uses the ordinary real convex hull and extreme-point notions. It does not define either feasible set as the claimed hull, assume integrality, or restrict the instance to a special demand pattern. Its locally bound sets and objective expose their complete code to the separate goal auditor. The reusable definition modules cover ordinary lot-sizing and the interval-flow formulation. Further work consists of proofs of the stated claims and explicit treatment of the recorded proof gaps; no variant theorem is posed.

Selected references

  • Yves Pochet and Laurence A. Wolsey, Production Planning by Mixed Integer Programming, Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering, Springer, 2006. DOI: 10.1007/0-387-33477-7. Chapter 7, especially Sections 7.1, 7.4, 7.5 and 7.7; Theorems 7.8–7.10 and Observation 7.12.
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Optimal Stopping and Free-Boundary Problems VII: Optimal Prediction of the Brownian MaximumTextbook

Motivation

Observing a fluctuating process does not reveal whether its largest value has already occurred. A decision to stop must nevertheless use the observations available at that moment. Optimal prediction asks how well such a decision can approximate a quantity determined by the entire future path. Peskir and Shiryaev formulate a basic instance using a Brownian particle observed during a fixed unit interval: stop so that the particle's current position is as close as possible, in mean square, to its eventual maximum. The financial interpretation concerns decisions based on predictions of the highest observed price or position over a specified horizon (Section 30.1, pp. 441–442).

The horizon is known, but the maximum is not. The decision therefore depends on the evolving information, rather than on a deterministic time selected beforehand. The mission concerns the exact solution for a standard Brownian motion without drift, including both its expected loss and the stopping rule attaining that loss.

Setting

A standard Brownian motion B=(Bt)t≥0B=(B_t)_{t\ge0}B=(Bt​)t≥0​ starts at zero, has continuous paths, and has independent Gaussian increments with variance equal to elapsed time. Its natural filtration FtB=σ(Bs:0≤s≤t)\mathcal F_t^B=\sigma(B_s:0\le s\le t)FtB​=σ(Bs​:0≤s≤t) records the observations through time ttt. A stopping time τ\tauτ is a decision for which the event {τ≤t}\{\tau\le t\}{τ≤t} can be determined from this information. The admissible class M\mathcal MM consists of these times with 0≤τ≤10\le\tau\le10≤τ≤1.

Define the running maximum and the resulting drawdown by

St=sup⁡0≤s≤tBs,Dt=St−Bt.S_t=\sup_{0\le s\le t}B_s,\qquad D_t=S_t-B_t.St​=0≤s≤tsup​Bs​,Dt​=St​−Bt​.

The target S1S_1S1​ is the ultimate maximum, while the estimator is the stopped position BτB_\tauBτ​. The loss and value are

L(τ)=(Bτ−S1)2,V∗=inf⁡τ∈MEL(τ).L(\tau)=(B_\tau-S_1)^2,\qquad V_* =\inf_{\tau\in\mathcal M}\mathbb E L(\tau).L(τ)=(Bτ​−S1​)2,V∗​=τ∈Minf​EL(τ).

This is the source's probability-space formulation, with a fixed horizon and no extra information about future observations (Eqs. (30.1.1)–(30.1.2)). Write φ\varphiφ for the standard normal density and Φ\PhiΦ for its cumulative distribution function.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 30.1. Let z∗z_*z∗​ be the unique root of

4Φ(z∗)−2z∗φ(z∗)−3=0.4\Phi(z_*)-2z_*\varphi(z_*)-3=0.4Φ(z∗​)−2z∗​φ(z∗​)−3=0.

The root is positive. The theorem identifies the least loss and an attaining rule:

V∗=2Φ(z∗)−1,τ∗=inf⁡{0≤t≤1:Dt≥z∗1−t}.V_*=2\Phi(z_*)-1,\qquad \tau_*=\inf\{0\le t\le1:D_t\ge z_*\sqrt{1-t}\}.V∗​=2Φ(z∗​)−1,τ∗​=inf{0≤t≤1:Dt​≥z∗​1−t​}.

The rule is itself an admissible stopping time, and its squared error is integrable with expectation equal to the displayed value (p. 442, Theorem 30.1).

Three supporting targets retain numbered source equations. The first is the explicit adapted representation

S1=ES1+∫01Ht dBt,Ht=2[1−Φ(Dt1−t)](t<1).S_1=\mathbb ES_1+\int_0^1H_t\,dB_t,\qquad H_t=2\left[1-\Phi\left(\frac{D_t}{\sqrt{1-t}}\right)\right]\quad(t<1).S1​=ES1​+∫01​Ht​dBt​,Ht​=2[1−Φ(1−t​Dt​​)](t<1).

The second is the identity, for every τ∈M\tau\in\mathcal Mτ∈M,

EL(τ)=1+E∫0τ(1−2Ht) dt.\mathbb E L(\tau)=1+\mathbb E\int_0^\tau(1-2H_t)\,dt.EL(τ)=1+E∫0τ​(1−2Ht​)dt.

These are Eqs. (30.1.7)–(30.1.8) and the final equality of Eq. (30.1.10), respectively (p. 442).

The third target concerns the analytic candidate

W(z)=Φ(z∗)(1+z2)−∣z∣φ(∣z∣)+(1−z2)Φ(∣z∣)−32W(z)=\Phi(z_*)(1+z^2)-|z|\varphi(|z|)+(1-z^2)\Phi(|z|)-\frac32W(z)=Φ(z∗​)(1+z2)−∣z∣φ(∣z∣)+(1−z2)Φ(∣z∣)−23​

for ∣z∣≤z∗|z|\le z_*∣z∣≤z∗​, extended by zero elsewhere. With F=4Φ−3F=4\Phi-3F=4Φ−3, it satisfies

W′′+zW′−2W=−F(∣z∣)(∣z∣<z∗),W''+zW'-2W=-F(|z|)\quad (|z|<z_*),W′′+zW′−2W=−F(∣z∣)(∣z∣<z∗​),

and W(±z∗)=W′(±z∗)=W′(0)=0W(\pm z_*)=W'(\pm z_*)=W'(0)=0W(±z∗​)=W′(±z∗​)=W′(0)=0. The target includes global continuous differentiability and interior second differentiability (Eqs. (30.1.21)–(30.1.27), pp. 444–445).

Significance

The solution specifies a moving threshold for an observable quantity: the distance below the largest position already seen. It gives an exact benchmark for a prediction problem in which the eventual target is unavailable at the decision time. It also separates the objective, defined over every admissible time, from the particular rule whose performance realizes that objective (Theorem 30.1).

A formal development would connect the Brownian probability model, its information structure, an adapted stochastic integral, and analytic boundary conditions in a single result. The definition layer supplies reusable interfaces for bounded-horizon prediction losses and drawdown hitting rules. The source result is established mathematics; the theorem files in this mission are proof obligations, not completed machine-checked proofs. Compiling the statements checks their types and dependencies but does not prove the assertions.

Difficulty

The terminal maximum depends on the whole path. A rule that observes this maximum in advance solves a different problem. Likewise, equality in distribution between drawdown and absolute Brownian motion does not, by itself, transport arbitrary stopping decisions between information structures. The source explicitly invokes the filtration and Markov properties when making this passage (p. 443). The stated reduction therefore keeps the same Brownian natural filtration and the same stopping time on both sides.

The analytic candidate is another distinct object: satisfying differential and boundary conditions does not by definition make it the stochastic value. The final theorem must still identify the infimum and establish attainment. The mission does not assume the verification conclusion as a hypothesis. The later timing-prediction discussion and general-horizon remark contain the source issues recorded in the accompanying findings; neither is used as an unqualified additional target here.

Formalization scope

Time is represented by nonnegative real numbers. The driving process is defined for all such times, and the objective uses only its restriction to [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Mathlib supplies the Brownian law predicate and measure-theoretic foundations. Evaluation measurability and everywhere continuous paths specify the chosen continuous version. Admissibility is expressed directly by measurability of {τ≤t}\{\tau\le t\}{τ≤t} in the sigma-algebra generated by the observed past, with an everywhere unit bound.

The objective uses a nonnegative extended integral and an extended-real infimum. The admissible class is nonempty because it contains the constant zero time. Continuity makes running suprema finite on compact intervals; the boundary hitting set contains time 111. Real expectations in theorem conclusions come with integrability assertions. The endpoint value H1=0H_1=0H1​=0 is a convention that does not affect either time integration or the left-sampled stochastic sums.

The unit-horizon integral is represented independently by the L2L^2L2 limit of left-endpoint dyadic sums for this explicit bounded integrand. This interface is not a general assertion that every predictable process admits such a sampling construction. The maximum representation establishes square integrability of the limit and sums. The general Itô–Clark uniqueness theorem is not separately posed. The transformed diffusion and its infinite-horizon stopping problem are left to subsequent proof development rather than introduced as additional mission items.

The exact root defines every constant; the descriptive decimals 1.12…1.12\ldots1.12… and 0.73…0.73\ldots0.73… are not substituted into any theorem. There are no asymptotic constants to instantiate. In particular, neither the value nor the optimizer is defined by assuming the claimed answer, and the filtration never includes the future maximum. Contributions can address the stochastic representation, the analytic candidate, or the complete optimality theorem while preserving these conventions.

Selected references

  • Goran Peskir and Albert N. Shiryaev, Optimal Stopping and Free-Boundary Problems, Birkhäuser Verlag, 2006, Section 30.1, pp. 441–451. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-7643-7390-0. The fixed source PDF places these pages at PDF pages 457–467; the goal is printed p. 442 / PDF p. 458.
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: Shuze Chen

Production Planning by Mixed Integer Programming I: Facility Location Reformulation of Uncapacitated Lot-SizingTextbook

Motivation

Production planning combines continuous quantities with discrete decisions about when a machine is prepared to produce. A setup can incur a fixed charge even when the amount subsequently produced is small. Relaxing the setup decision to a fraction can therefore give a cost bound that is too optimistic. For a single product without capacity limits, a complete reformulation provides an exact benchmark for stronger formulations of larger planning systems. This is the role of the uncapacitated lot-sizing example in Pochet and Wolsey, Chapter 4.

The question concerns the entire family of feasible plans, rather than the numerical performance of one solver. An exact reformulation must retain every original feasible plan and exclude every point outside their convex hull after auxiliary variables are eliminated. It must also support the optimization claim actually made in the source: a linear program has an attained optimum whose setup variables are integral.

Setting

A finite planning horizon contains periods 1,…,n1,\ldots,n1,…,n, with n≥1n\ge1n≥1. Demand dtd_tdt​ in period ttt is a nonnegative real number. Production xtx_txt​ and end-of-period stock sts_tst​ are nonnegative real quantities. The binary variable yty_tyt​ indicates whether production is enabled. Inventory balance requires

st−1+xt=dt+st.s_{t-1}+x_t=d_t+s_t.st−1​+xt​=dt​+st​.

The initial inventory is fixed at aaa, where 0≤a≤d10\le a\le d_10≤a≤d1​, and final inventory is zero. Production is linked to setup by xt≤dtnytx_t\le d_{tn}y_txt​≤dtn​yt​, where dtn=∑k=tndkd_{tn}=\sum_{k=t}^n d_kdtn​=∑k=tn​dk​. A setup may be unused. These are the original constraints in Chapter 4, equations (4.2)–(4.5).

The multi-commodity formulation distinguishes production by the demand period it serves. A quantity witw_{it}wit​ is produced in period iii for delivery in period t≥it\ge it≥i. Its inventory after period iii is vitv_{it}vit​. Each commodity satisfies its own balance equations and has no inventory after its delivery period. Initial stock is assigned to the first commodity. The setup bound is wit≤d^tyiw_{it}\le\widehat d_ty_iwit​≤dt​yi​, with d^1=d1−a\widehat d_1=d_1-ad1​=d1​−a and d^t=dt\widehat d_t=d_tdt​=dt​ otherwise. Relaxing setups gives 0≤yi≤10\le y_i\le10≤yi​≤1. Summing quantities over commodities defines a projection π\piπ into the original production, stock, and setup coordinates.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 4.1, printed page 121. If XXX denotes the original feasible set and QQQ the continuous multi-commodity formulation, it requires

π(Q)=conv⁡(X).\pi(Q)=\operatorname{conv}(X).π(Q)=conv(X).

For real costs p,h,qp,h,qp,h,q, it also requires an attained minimum of

C(x,s,y)=∑t=1n(pxt+qyt)+∑t=1n−1hstC(x,s,y)=\sum_{t=1}^n(px_t+qy_t)+\sum_{t=1}^{n-1}hs_tC(x,s,y)=t=1∑n​(pxt​+qyt​)+t=1∑n−1​hst​

over QQQ, with all setup variables binary. The projection of this minimizer must belong to XXX and minimize the same objective there.

Three source milestones organize the supporting material from Chapter 7. Proposition 7.1 asserts an optimal plan satisfying st−1xt=0s_{t-1}x_t=0st−1​xt​=0 in every period. Proposition 7.4 asserts validity of the (l,S)(l,S)(l,S) inequalities

∑j∈Sxj≤∑j∈Sdjlyj+sl,S⊆{1,…,l}.\sum_{j\in S}x_j\le\sum_{j\in S}d_{jl}y_j+s_l, \qquad S\subseteq\{1,\ldots,l\}.j∈S∑​xj​≤j∈S∑​djl​yj​+sl​,S⊆{1,…,l}.

Theorem 7.5 asserts that these inequalities, together with the original continuous constraints and zero endpoint stocks, describe the convex hull of the integer feasible set. Their precise statements and their source-domain defect are kept separate from their corrected companions.

Significance

The goal identifies exactly what the additional commodity variables accomplish. Its geometric conclusion applies independently of an objective, while its optimization conclusion supplies an actual plan with binary setup decisions. Together they express why the relaxation solves this single-item model without a separate branching decision, as claimed in Chapter 4. They do not assert that adding arbitrary linking constraints across multiple items preserves that property.

The formalization makes quantities, endpoint inventories, and the direction of projection explicit. It also separates a literal printed statement from a correction justified by the surrounding model. These are proposed theorem statements, compiled with proof placeholders; they are not machine-checked proofs of the textbook results. The intended physical-model results are established mathematics, and completing their proofs is the formalization task.

Difficulty

A correct integer reformulation alone does not establish the convex-hull equality. Fractional setup vectors create additional cases, and equality of costs for one numerical instance cannot establish equality of sets. The distinction between existence of some binary optimal solution and integrality of every relaxed feasible point must also be maintained.

There is a source defect in the milestone model. Equation (7.4) prints unrestricted real production, although Chapter 4, the network interpretation, the validity proof, and equation (7.47) require nonnegative production. For n=2n=2n=2, d=(1,1)d=(1,1)d=(1,1), M=3M=3M=3, the literal constraints admit x=(3,−1)x=(3,-1)x=(3,−1), s=(0,2,0)s=(0,2,0)s=(0,2,0), and y=(1,0)y=(1,0)y=(1,0). This point violates the (2,{1})(2,\{1\})(2,{1}) inequality. With production costs (−1,0)(-1,0)(−1,0) and all other costs zero, every optimum violates the zero-inventory condition. The faithful milestone statements are therefore retained as disproof targets, with their corrected companions available for the physical-model development.

Formalization scope

Production periods use Fin n, with index zero corresponding to source period one. Stocks use Fin (n+1), including both boundary values. The hypothesis n>0n>0n>0 excludes an empty horizon; singleton horizons and zero demands remain included. The milestone models have zero initial and final stocks. Their positive big-MMM coefficient is at least total demand, making the source's “large” coefficient precise. Costs have no sign restrictions, so unused setups cannot be removed by definition.

Each theorem exposes its complete feasible constraints through binders or local let-bindings. The multi-commodity arrays are rectangular, with entries outside the source's triangular domain constrained to zero. The goal defines projection by existential elimination and summation. Its cost sum includes terminal stock, which is constrained to zero. No side of the hull equality is defined to be the other side, and neither integrality nor optimality is assumed. No algorithmic complexity claim is selected, so no asymptotic constant is instantiated.

Beyond the paper. Exactly three corrected variants restore production nonnegativity to the literal milestone model: zero-inventory optimality, inequality validity, and the hull description. They change only this domain condition. The numerical counterexample above supplies the evidence for each correction, and the corrected domain is explicitly printed in equation (7.47). The faithful numbered statements remain the milestone anchors. Separately, equation (7.17) has an extra demand factor in commodity aggregation; the goal uses the independently correct Chapter 4 equations and does not pose the later alias as another target.

The required library infrastructure is finite sums, finite ordered indices, real vector spaces, and convex hulls. Contributions can establish the corrected physical-model milestones, disprove the literal statements, or prove the goal's projection and attainment clauses. No external draft imports or unverified model definitions are prerequisites.

Selected references

  • Yves Pochet and Laurence A. Wolsey, Production Planning by Mixed Integer Programming, Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering, Springer, 2006. DOI: 10.1007/0-387-33477-7. Chapters 4 and 7; Theorem 4.1, Propositions 7.1 and 7.4, and Theorem 7.5.
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability+1·Captain: Shuze Chen

Optimal Stopping and Free-Boundary Problems III: The Maximality PrincipleTextbook

Motivation

A decision maker observes a fluctuating quantity and can collect its largest observed value when observation stops. Waiting can improve the record, but observation has a running cost. The decision depends on both the current state and the record already achieved: the same current observation can justify different decisions after different histories. This is the maximum-process stopping problem studied in Section 13 of Peskir and Shiryaev (2006).

The chapter connects this stochastic optimization problem with a differential equation for a stopping boundary. The equation can have several solutions. The substantive question is which solution represents the optimization problem, and what happens when there is no suitable global solution. The source also distinguishes an optimal rule from a sequence of admissible rules whose rewards only approach the value.

Setting

A diffusion XXX is a continuous real-valued stochastic process satisfying

dXt=ρ(Xt) dt+σ(Xt) dBt,X0=x,dX_t=\rho(X_t)\,dt+\sigma(X_t)\,dB_t,\qquad X_0=x,dXt​=ρ(Xt​)dt+σ(Xt​)dBt​,X0​=x,

where BBB is standard Brownian motion, the drift ρ\rhoρ is continuous, and the volatility σ\sigmaσ is continuous and strictly positive. The process exists for every nonnegative time and has state space R\mathbb RR. Its running maximum, initialized at s≥xs\ge xs≥x, is St=s∨sup⁡0≤r≤tXrS_t=s\vee\sup_{0\le r\le t}X_rSt​=s∨sup0≤r≤t​Xr​. A continuous strictly positive function ccc specifies the cost per unit time at each state.

An admissible stopping time τ\tauτ uses only the information generated by XXX, is almost surely finite, and satisfies E∫0τc(Xt)dt<∞E\int_0^\tau c(X_t)dt<\inftyE∫0τ​c(Xt​)dt<∞. The value function is

V∗(x,s)=sup⁡τ admissibleEx,s[Sτ−∫0τc(Xt) dt].V_*(x,s)=\sup_{\tau\text{ admissible}}E_{x,s}\left[S_\tau-\int_0^\tau c(X_t)\,dt\right].V∗​(x,s)=τ admissiblesup​Ex,s​[Sτ​−∫0τ​c(Xt​)dt].

Expected rewards and the supremum may equal +∞+\infty+∞. These are the objects in Eqs. (13.1.1)–(13.1.5), with the book's almost sure finiteness convention from Definition 2.1.

The scale function LLL is normalized by L(0)=0L(0)=0L(0)=0 and L′(0)=1L'(0)=1L′(0)=1, with L′(y)=exp⁡(−∫0y2ρ(z)/σ(z)2 dz)L'(y)=\exp(-\int_0^y2\rho(z)/\sigma(z)^2\,dz)L′(y)=exp(−∫0y​2ρ(z)/σ(z)2dz). The speed measure has density 2/[L′(y)σ(y)2]2/[L'(y)\sigma(y)^2]2/[L′(y)σ(y)2]. These quantities encode the spatial behavior used in the boundary equation and candidate value formula.

Formalization targets

The first milestone is Proposition 13.1: the diagonal is a continuation region,

V∗(x,x)>x.V_*(x,x)>x.V∗​(x,x)>x.

The second milestone is the equivalence following Eq. (13.2.21). For a continuously differentiable boundary g(s)<sg(s)<sg(s)<s, the integral candidate satisfies the generator equation, normal reflection, instantaneous stopping, and smooth fit exactly when

g′(s)=σ(g(s))2L′(g(s))2c(g(s))[L(s)−L(g(s))].g'(s)=\frac{\sigma(g(s))^2L'(g(s))}{2c(g(s))[L(s)-L(g(s))]}.g′(s)=2c(g(s))[L(s)−L(g(s))]σ(g(s))2L′(g(s))​.

The third milestone is Eq. (13.2.30), superharmonicity of the candidate minus accumulated cost for the specified admissible stopping class. All three targets retain the numbered source anchors in Section 13.

The goal is the complete statement of Theorem 13.2. A maximal admissible boundary g∗g_*g∗​ is a global solution of the equation, strictly below the diagonal, which dominates every other such solution pointwise. The source identifies the finite value as

V∗(x,s)=s+∫g∗(s)x[L(x)−L(y)]c(y)m(dy)V_*(x,s)=s+\int_{g_*(s)}^x[L(x)-L(y)]c(y)m(dy)V∗​(x,s)=s+∫g∗​(s)x​[L(x)−L(y)]c(y)m(dy)

for g∗(s)≤x≤sg_*(s)\le x\le sg∗​(s)≤x≤s, and as sss for x≤g∗(s)x\le g_*(s)x≤g∗​(s). Its hitting rule is optimal when its expected cost is finite, and otherwise is approximated by admissible hitting rules as specified in Eq. (13.2.41). Whenever an admissible optimum exists, this rule is the smallest optimum almost surely. The source's alternative asserts infinite value and absence of an optimal stopping time when there is no maximal admissible boundary.

Significance

The finite-value part of Theorem 13.2 connects a stopping problem defined over random times with an analytic boundary selected by pointwise maximality. It gives both a value formula and a decision rule, while identifying exactly when admissibility is required for attainment. The distinction between exact and approximate optimality is part of the result, rather than an implementation detail.

The formalization supplies a reusable representation of diffusion coefficients, weak solutions, natural stopping information, accumulated costs, scale and speed, and global boundary comparison. The theorem items are proof obligations, not machine-checked proofs of the book. The definitions have genuine bodies, and the statements compile against the pinned environment. An independent representation of the stopping value makes comparison with the proposed formula a substantive mathematical claim.

Difficulty

Solving the boundary equation locally does not establish global admissibility, pointwise maximality, or admissibility of the associated stopping rule. The finite expected cost condition also does not automatically make every maximum payoff integrable. These issues prevent local analytic calculations alone from settling the stopping problem.

There is an additional source-level obstacle. Finding F4 records an explicit counterexample to the last nonattainment clause under the stated extended-real reward convention. A Brownian motion with positive unit drift and cost c(y)=e−yc(y)=e^{-y}c(y)=e−y admits an almost surely finite rule with infinite expected reward and finite expected cost, while the boundary equation has no global admissible solution. The faithful printed goal is retained; this clause is expected to require a disproof or a separately stated correction. The finding does not silently replace the source statement, and no variant item is included.

Formalization scope

Time is nonnegative real, stopping times take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and admissibility requires almost sure finiteness. The natural filtration is augmented by ambient measurable null sets and made right-continuous. The weak stochastic differential equation is specified by Brownian motion adapted to a witnessing filtration, independence of future increments, and convergence in probability of left dyadic stochastic-integral sums. No growth or Lipschitz assumption is added to the continuous coefficients; the given solution is nonexplosive.

Costs and maximum increments are integrated as nonnegative quantities, and rewards subtract only finite expected cost on the admissible class. Extended-real suprema retain the infinite-value alternative. Ordinary real suprema are used only for continuous paths on compact time intervals. The scale normalization is immaterial to the product of scale differences and speed measure in the formulas.

The value is not defined by the candidate formula, and maximality contains no optimality hypothesis. The boundary approximation includes decreasing ODE boundaries with finite diagonal contacts, increasing admissible hitting times, and convergence of their rewards. There are no asymptotic constants to instantiate in the selected statements. Exit-probability identities, the general signed occupation formula, nonnegative-state boundary classifications, and discounted variants are outside this mission. The three inherited Chapter III findings remain recorded without additional theorem items. Contributions can establish the finite-value clauses, the analytic equivalence, the stochastic comparison milestone, or a formal disproof of the identified source clause.

Selected references

  • Goran Peskir and Albert Shiryaev, Optimal Stopping and Free-Boundary Problems, Birkhäuser Verlag, 2006. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-7643-7390-0. Section 13, printed pp. 199–213; Definition 2.1 and the filtration convention, printed p. 27. All source indices use this published edition.
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ProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: Shuze Chen

Optimal Stopping and Free-Boundary Problems II: The Local Time-Space FormulaTextbook

Motivation

Optimal stopping problems often describe a value function separately in a continuation region and a stopping region. The two descriptions meet along a boundary that changes with time. Applying stochastic calculus to such a function requires knowing what happens at that boundary: continuity of the function does not imply continuity of its spatial derivative. A formula that only applies to globally smooth functions would miss precisely this issue. Chapter II of Peskir and Shiryaev's Optimal Stopping and Free-Boundary Problems, especially Section 3.5, supplies the change-of-variable formula for this setting.

The mission concerns a single continuous boundary in one spatial dimension. Its goal is the diffusion formula (3.5.9), with the hypotheses stated immediately before it. The general continuous-semimartingale formula and the Brownian Tanaka identity provide supporting targets. These are classical mathematical identities; the task is to express and ultimately prove them in Lean with their stochastic and analytic hypotheses intact.

Setting

A filtered probability space consists of a probability measure PPP on a measurable sample space Ω\OmegaΩ, together with increasing information sets Ft\mathcal F_tFt​. The filtration is right-continuous, the probability space is complete, and every null event belongs to F0\mathcal F_0F0​. These are the usual conditions imposed in the book on printed pages 53–54.

A continuous semimartingale XXX has a decomposition X=X0+M+AX=X_0+M+AX=X0​+M+A, where MMM is a continuous local martingale starting at zero and AAA is continuous, adapted, and of finite variation on every finite interval. The random initial value need not have a finite expectation. Its quadratic variation Q=⟨X,X⟩Q=\langle X,X\rangleQ=⟨X,X⟩ is the continuous increasing adapted process characterized by M2−QM^2-QM2−Q being a local martingale. Both definitions follow the framework of Section 3.1 and Eq. (3.3.6) in the book.

Let c:[0,∞)→Rc:[0,\infty)\to\mathbb Rc:[0,∞)→R be continuous and of bounded variation on each finite interval. The function F(t,x)F(t,x)F(t,x) is continuous everywhere and has one time derivative and two spatial derivatives separately on x>c(t)x>c(t)x>c(t) and x<c(t)x<c(t)x<c(t). Each derivative extends continuously to the closure of its own side. The boundary traces Fx(t,c(t)+)F_x(t,c(t)+)Fx​(t,c(t)+) and Fx(t,c(t)−)F_x(t,c(t)-)Fx​(t,c(t)−) are allowed to differ.

The symmetric local time on the curve is normalized by

ℓtc(X)=P-lim⁡ε↓012ε∫0t1{c(s)−ε<Xs<c(s)+ε} dQs.\ell_t^c(X)=P\text{-}\lim_{\varepsilon\downarrow0} \frac{1}{2\varepsilon}\int_0^t \mathbf1_{\{c(s)-\varepsilon<X_s<c(s)+\varepsilon\}}\,dQ_s.ℓtc​(X)=P-ε↓0lim​2ε1​∫0t​1{c(s)−ε<Xs​<c(s)+ε}​dQs​.

This probability limit is Eq. (3.5.6). Local time is represented by a continuous increasing adapted process, so integration against it is ordinary pathwise Lebesgue–Stieltjes integration.

Formalization targets

The first milestone references the existing time-dependent multidimensional Itô theorem, specialized to a time-independent test function, for Eq. (3.3.18). The next milestone is the Brownian Tanaka identity and its normalization, Eqs. (3.3.21)–(3.3.22):

∣Bt−a∣=∣B0−a∣+∫0tsgn⁡(Bs−a) dBs+Lta,Lta=lim⁡ε↓012ε∫0t1{∣Bs−a∣≤ε} ds.|B_t-a|=|B_0-a|+\int_0^t\operatorname{sgn}(B_s-a)\,dB_s+L_t^a, \qquad L_t^a=\lim_{\varepsilon\downarrow0}\frac1{2\varepsilon} \int_0^t\mathbf1_{\{|B_s-a|\le\varepsilon\}}\,ds.∣Bt​−a∣=∣B0​−a∣+∫0t​sgn(Bs​−a)dBs​+Lta​,Lta​=ε↓0lim​2ε1​∫0t​1{∣Bs​−a∣≤ε}​ds.

The third milestone is Eq. (3.5.5). Writing bars for the arithmetic mean of the two one-sided derivatives, it asserts

F(t,Xt)=F(0,X0)+∫0tFˉt(s,Xs) ds+∫0tFˉx(s,Xs) dXs+12∫0tFxx(s,Xs)1{Xs≠c(s)} dQs+12∫0t(Fx+−Fx−)(s,Xs)1{Xs=c(s)} dℓsc.F(t,X_t)=F(0,X_0)+\int_0^t\bar F_t(s,X_s)\,ds +\int_0^t\bar F_x(s,X_s)\,dX_s +\frac12\int_0^t F_{xx}(s,X_s)\mathbf1_{\{X_s\ne c(s)\}}\,dQ_s +\frac12\int_0^t(F_x^+-F_x^-)(s,X_s)\mathbf1_{\{X_s=c(s)\}}\,d\ell_s^c.F(t,Xt​)=F(0,X0​)+∫0t​Fˉt​(s,Xs​)ds+∫0t​Fˉx​(s,Xs​)dXs​+21​∫0t​Fxx​(s,Xs​)1{Xs​=c(s)}​dQs​+21​∫0t​(Fx+​−Fx−​)(s,Xs​)1{Xs​=c(s)}​dℓsc​.

For the goal, suppose additionally that dXt=b(Xt) dt+σ(Xt) dBtdX_t=b(X_t)\,dt+\sigma(X_t)\,dB_tdXt​=b(Xt​)dt+σ(Xt​)dBt​, with measurable locally bounded coefficients and σ≥0\sigma\ge0σ≥0. Fix T≥0T\ge0T≥0 and assume P(Xs=c(s))=0P(X_s=c(s))=0P(Xs​=c(s))=0 at every deterministic time 0<s≤T0<s\le T0<s≤T. Set LXF=bFx+12σ2Fxx\mathcal L_XF=bF_x+\frac12\sigma^2F_{xx}LX​F=bFx​+21​σ2Fxx​. The target, Eq. (3.5.9), is almost surely, simultaneously for 0≤t≤T0\le t\le T0≤t≤T,

F(t,Xt)=F(0,X0)+∫0t(Ft+LXF)(s,Xs)1{Xs≠c(s)} ds+∫0tFx(s,Xs)σ(Xs)1{Xs≠c(s)} dBs+12∫0t(Fx(s,Xs+)−Fx(s,Xs−))1{Xs=c(s)} dℓsc.\begin{aligned} F(t,X_t)=F(0,X_0)&+\int_0^t(F_t+\mathcal L_XF)(s,X_s)\mathbf1_{\{X_s\ne c(s)\}}\,ds\\ &+\int_0^tF_x(s,X_s)\sigma(X_s)\mathbf1_{\{X_s\ne c(s)\}}\,dB_s\\ &+\frac12\int_0^t(F_x(s,X_s+)-F_x(s,X_s-))\mathbf1_{\{X_s=c(s)\}}\,d\ell_s^c. \end{aligned}F(t,Xt​)=F(0,X0​)​+∫0t​(Ft​+LX​F)(s,Xs​)1{Xs​=c(s)}​ds+∫0t​Fx​(s,Xs​)σ(Xs​)1{Xs​=c(s)}​dBs​+21​∫0t​(Fx​(s,Xs​+)−Fx​(s,Xs​−))1{Xs​=c(s)}​dℓsc​.​

All three displayed nonsmooth identities and their hypotheses are taken from the published book, printed pages 67 and 74–75.

Significance

The goal separates the contribution from evolution away from the boundary from the contribution of the spatial derivative jump at the boundary. It permits a function to be treated using the smooth formulas valid in its two regions while retaining the additional local-time term prescribed by the source. It does not assume smooth fit, and it does not infer that a zero probability of occupying the boundary at each deterministic time makes local time vanish.

The formal development supplies reusable representations of continuous semimartingales, increasing integration clocks, stochastic integrals, side derivatives, and occupation local time. The theorem statements ask for existence of the integrals and local time together with the identities. The referenced Itô theorem is currently Open on Prove2Me; the new theorem items are also proof targets, not completed machine-checked proofs.

Difficulty

The analytic derivatives have two different boundary traces, while stochastic paths may visit the boundary repeatedly. Ordinary globally smooth Itô calculus does not directly state the required identity. The normalization of the occupation limit must agree with the one-half coefficient in the formula. The time integral, stochastic integral, quadratic-variation integral, and local-time integral also use different measures, so removing an indicator from one term cannot be justified merely by its irrelevance to another.

The book attributes proofs of Section 3.5 to its reference [163]. This mission retains the original stronger hypotheses (3.5.1)–(3.5.2). The separate relaxed extension (3.5.10)–(3.5.13) is outside the target; the notation issue in its final hypothesis is recorded for later review.

Formalization scope

Time is nonnegative real time and the state is real. Input Brownian and semimartingale paths are continuous at every sample point, as in the source. Local-martingale versions and identities are understood up to null sets. Brownian increments have explicit centered Gaussian laws and are independent of the past filtration. Finite variation is represented as the difference of two continuous increasing processes. Increasing clocks extend by zero to negative real times and carry actual Stieltjes measures; integration is over (0,t](0,t](0,t]. Their continuity removes endpoint atoms. Local pathwise integrability is required explicitly, preventing the default value of a nonintegrable Bochner integral from supplying an identity.

The stochastic integral is characterized independently by compensated products: for J=∫H dMJ=\int H\,dMJ=∫HdM, both JM−∫H dQJM-\int H\,dQJM−∫HdQ and J2−∫H2 dQJ^2-\int H^2\,dQJ2−∫H2dQ are continuous local martingales starting at zero. Progressive measurability and local square integrability are included. The SDE is an integral equation using this same relation. No target change-of-variable formula appears inside these definitions.

Local time is defined by occupation limits, never by rearranging the asserted identity, and the two derivative traces are not identified. The Brownian normalization uses the closed strip printed in (3.3.22); the curve normalization uses the strict strip printed in (3.5.6). The sign at zero is zero. The goal's no-contact assumption excludes time zero and only applies through the selected horizon. All constants are exact: 1/(2ε)1/(2\varepsilon)1/(2ε) in occupation limits and 1/21/21/2 in the derivative-jump and generator terms. There are no asymptotic constants or probability bounds to instantiate.

Selected references

  • G. Peskir and A. N. Shiryaev, Optimal Stopping and Free-Boundary Problems, Birkhäuser Verlag, 2006, Chapter II, Sections 3.1, 3.3, and 3.5, especially printed pp. 67, 74–75. DOI.
  • S. N. Ethier and T. G. Kurtz, Markov Processes: Characterization and Convergence, Wiley, 1986, Chapter 5, Theorem 2.9, printed p. 287. The existing formal statement supplies the classical Itô milestone. DOI.
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Mathematical LogicOptimizationTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: Shuze Chen

Horn Maximum Satisfiability: Reductions, Algorithms and Applications: SAT reduces to Horn MaxSAT by dual-rail encodingResearch Paper

Motivation

Boolean satisfiability asks whether a collection of logical requirements can hold simultaneously. Maximum satisfiability instead asks how many requirements can hold, while sometimes retaining a separate collection that must hold. Restricting the syntax of each requirement can substantially change the decision problem without removing the expressive power of the optimization problem. This distinction motivates the study of optimization over Horn clauses in Marques-Silva, Ignatiev and Morgado, arXiv:1705.05335v1, especially §§1–2 and 5.2.

The selected result concerns an explicit transformation of arbitrary finite satisfiability instances into Horn maximum-satisfiability instances. It specifies the output clauses and an exact threshold, so its content is more concrete than the existence of some reduction between the two problems. The mission covers this transformation and its uniform polynomial-time computability. Other reductions, the hitting-set solver, its abstraction claims and the experiments in the paper are independent of this target.

Setting

A Boolean variable takes one of the values false and true. A literal is a variable or its negation. A clause is a finite disjunction of literals, and a CNF formula is a finite conjunction of clauses. A total assignment assigns a Boolean value to every variable. It satisfies a clause when at least one literal is true and satisfies a formula when every clause is satisfied. An empty clause is false; a formula with no clauses is true. These are the conventions of §2, p. 2.

A Horn clause contains at most one distinct positive literal. Thus an all-negative clause, an empty clause and a positive unit clause are Horn. An unweighted partial MaxSAT instance consists of hard clauses HHH and soft clauses SSS. A feasible assignment satisfies every hard clause. Its score is the number of satisfied soft clauses, each with unit weight. The associated threshold question asks whether there exists a feasible assignment whose score reaches a specified natural number. This preserves infeasibility separately from score zero, as required by the hard-clause convention in §2, pp. 2–3.

For a formula FFF with NNN variables, the dual-rail encoding introduces two distinct variables pi,nip_i,n_ipi​,ni​ for each original variable xix_ixi​. HEnc includes the hard exclusion (¬pi∨¬ni)(\neg p_i\lor\neg n_i)(¬pi​∨¬ni​) for each pair. Each source clause is also turned into a hard clause: positive xix_ixi​ becomes ¬ni\neg n_i¬ni​, and negative ¬xi\neg x_i¬xi​ becomes ¬pi\neg p_i¬pi​. The soft clauses are the positive units (pi)(p_i)(pi​) and (ni)(n_i)(ni​), one of each per original variable. The threshold is NNN. These clauses are the specific construction in §5.2, p. 8.

Formalization target

The single goal asserts that HEnc is computed by one fixed deterministic finite-control multi-stack Turing machine within one fixed polynomial in input length, uniformly for all finite source formulas. For every FFF, write (H,S,N)=HEnc⁡(F)(H,S,N)=\operatorname{HEnc}(F)(H,S,N)=HEnc(F). In addition to that efficiency assertion, the goal requires

every clause of H and S is Horn,\text{every clause of }H\text{ and }S\text{ is Horn},every clause of H and S is Horn, F is satisfiable  ⟺  ∃b  (b⊨H ∧ score⁡S(b)≥N),F\text{ is satisfiable}\iff \exists b\;\bigl(b\models H\ \land\ \operatorname{score}_S(b)\ge N\bigr),F is satisfiable⟺∃b(b⊨H ∧ scoreS​(b)≥N),

and the universal cap

∀b,b⊨H⟹score⁡S(b)≤N.\forall b,\quad b\models H\Longrightarrow\operatorname{score}_S(b)\le N.∀b,b⊨H⟹scoreS​(b)≤N.

The constant in both comparisons is exactly NNN. The quantifier over bbb ranges over all total assignments on the 2N2N2N rails. No feasible assignment, satisfying source assignment or attained optimum is assumed. This is the unnumbered HEnc correctness claim, §5.2, p. 8, with the polynomial-reduction convention from §§1–2 made explicit. There are no numbered supporting milestones in this source argument.

Significance

The result gives a precise relationship between the answer to an arbitrary CNF satisfiability instance and an exact score threshold in its Horn output. Both directions of the equivalence matter: the output must neither lose a satisfiable source instance nor admit a threshold witness for an unsatisfiable one. The cap additionally describes every feasible target assignment. These are properties of the specified transformation, rather than properties of a solver chosen to process its output. They are the contribution of §5.2 selected here.

The mathematical claim is presented in the paper as an established reduction. The formal goal remains unproved. A completed development would connect a concrete finite syntax, a reusable hard/soft objective and actual machine execution within one checked statement. The general Horn and partial-MaxSAT definitions can support other encodings without assuming this reduction's correctness. The published CNF representation is reused; its unrelated complexity conjectures are not assumptions of this mission.

Difficulty

Hornness alone is insufficient: the semantic equivalence and exact score cap must concern the same computed clauses. Hard feasibility permits both rails in a pair to be false. Replacing it with an exactly-one condition would change the target. Empty hard clauses also prevent an optimization convention that assigns score zero to infeasibility from expressing the threshold question correctly when N=0N=0N=0.

The computational clause introduces a separate obligation. A short output or a terminating recursive definition does not establish a polynomial bound for a fixed machine. The formal target requires a machine that writes the complete encoded output, together with a polynomial bound on its actual steps. It does not request a polynomial-time SAT or MaxSAT solver.

Formalization scope

Variables use zero-based finite indices. Lists represent clause collections and clauses; repeated hard clauses or literals do not alter satisfaction, and Hornness counts distinct positive literals. HEnc's soft list contains each rail exactly once. All widths are admitted, including empty clauses, tautologies and contradictory units. The representation also admits unused declared variables; restricting the declared universe to the variables occurring in FFF recovers the source domain without changing its threshold.

The finite alphabet has six tokens. Variable counts are unary headers; literal indices and the output threshold use terminated little-endian binary. Separate tokens delimit clauses and distinguish hard from soft collections. The header makes every declared variable contribute to input size. The formalization claims no polynomial bound in the logarithm of a hidden variable count. Mathlib's TM2ComputableInPolyTime supplies the concrete execution model and polynomial step bound. No source-specific numerical runtime constant is invented.

Definitions contain no satisfiability oracle, correctness certificate or assumed reduction property. The theorem retains efficiency, Hornness, the full equivalence and the universal cap in one item. The apparent cic_ici​/cjc_jcj​ index typo in §5.2 is read according to its literalwise construction and documented separately. Proof contributions must establish the full statement; neither a restricted source class nor an output-size calculation replaces it.

Selected references

  • João Marques-Silva, Alexey Ignatiev and António Morgado, Horn Maximum Satisfiability: Reductions, Algorithms and Applications, preprint, 2017, arXiv:1705.05335v1, especially §2, pp. 2–3 and §5.2, p. 8. All page references use this pinned version.
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Markov ChainOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: Shuze Chen

Stability of Queueing Networks II: Instability of the Random Lu–Kumar NetworkTextbook

Motivation: service priorities can prevent stability

A network can have enough nominal capacity at each station and still accumulate jobs because its service discipline coordinates the stations poorly. This matters when evaluating scheduling rules for systems in which a job revisits resources: station loads alone do not describe the effect of priorities. Bramson's random Lu–Kumar example isolates this issue using two stations and four classes, without complicated routing or service distributions. The selected result is Theorem 3.2 of Stability of Queueing Networks, printed page 56.

The mission concerns the stochastic example. Its queue lengths count individual jobs, its service requirements are random, and its conclusion concerns probability of escape over continuous time. The deterministic example with zero service times, discussed immediately before the theorem, is a separate result.

Setting: a reentrant line with four classes

A queueing network groups jobs into classes according to their next required service. Each class belongs to a station, and completing service routes a job to its next class or out of the network. A reentrant line has a fixed route that can revisit a station. Here every external arrival follows

1⟶2⟶3⟶4⟶exit.1\longrightarrow2\longrightarrow3\longrightarrow4\longrightarrow\mathrm{exit}.1⟶2⟶3⟶4⟶exit.

Station 1 serves classes 1 and 4, while station 2 serves classes 2 and 3. Each station works at unit speed when it has an eligible job. The preemptive-resume priority discipline gives class 4 priority over class 1 and class 2 priority over class 3. Interrupted service is retained.

External arrivals form a rate-one Poisson process. Successive service requirements are mutually independent exponential random variables, independent of arrivals. Their means are mk>0m_k>0mk​>0, one for each class. All four means are arbitrary positive real numbers. These are the assumptions of the random model in Section 3.1, printed pages 55–57.

Write Zk(t)Z_k(t)Zk​(t) for the number of jobs at class kkk, A(t)A(t)A(t) for external arrivals during (0,t](0,t](0,t], and D(t)D(t)D(t) for network departures during that interval. Counts are unbounded natural numbers. Instability means that some finite initial queue vector gives strictly positive probability that ∑kZk(t)\sum_k Z_k(t)∑k​Zk​(t) tends to infinity as real time tends to infinity. This is the escape definition on printed pages 53–54 of the same source.

Formalization targets

The goal is the complete printed stochastic assertion:

m2+m4>1⟹∃z0∈N4,Pz0 ⁣(∑k=14Zk(t)⟶∞)>0.m_2+m_4>1 \quad\Longrightarrow\quad \exists z_0\in\mathbb N^4,\quad \mathbb P_{z_0}\!\left(\sum_{k=1}^{4}Z_k(t)\longrightarrow\infty\right)>0.m2​+m4​>1⟹∃z0​∈N4,Pz0​​(k=1∑4​Zk​(t)⟶∞)>0.

No subcritical inequalities or equalities between means are added.

The selected milestones are the source's numbered observations (3.5)–(3.8) and Lemma 3.3. Define

τ0=inf⁡{t≥0:Z2(t)=0 or Z4(t)=0}.\tau_0=\inf\{t\ge0: Z_2(t)=0\ \text{or}\ Z_4(t)=0\}.τ0​=inf{t≥0:Z2​(t)=0 or Z4​(t)=0}.

The occupation and service milestones assert that τ0<∞\tau_0<\inftyτ0​<∞ almost surely, and that on one probability-one event, at every t≥τ0t\ge\tau_0t≥τ0​, classes 2 and 4 are not both occupied and do not receive simultaneous service. The rate milestones assert

lim sup⁡t→∞D(t)t≤1m2+m4,A(t)t⟶1almost surely.\limsup_{t\to\infty}\frac{D(t)}t\le\frac1{m_2+m_4}, \qquad \frac{A(t)}t\longrightarrow1 \quad\text{almost surely}.t→∞limsup​tD(t)​≤m2​+m4​1​,tA(t)​⟶1almost surely.

The latter reuses a published arrival-process strong law.

Equation (3.5) asserts that immediate workload at station 2 decreases exactly at unit speed on any interval during which both high-priority queues remain occupied. This printed target is retained. There is a source inconsistency with the immediate-workload convention in (4.44): a class-2 completion introduces a class-3 requirement at the same station. The mission records a positive-probability counterexample separately; it does not replace the equation with a corrected claim.

Significance: a stochastic obstruction to load-based criteria

Theorem 3.2 identifies a service-mean condition that forces stochastic escape. It can hold alongside the subcritical station-load inequalities m1+m4<1m_1+m_4<1m1​+m4​<1 and m2+m3<1m_2+m_3<1m2​+m3​<1. For example, the means (0.1,0.6,0.1,0.6)(0.1,0.6,0.1,0.6)(0.1,0.6,0.1,0.6) give both station loads equal to 0.70.70.7 and satisfy m2+m4=1.2>1m_2+m_4=1.2>1m2​+m4​=1.2>1. Thus adequate nominal station capacity does not by itself guarantee stability for this priority rule, as discussed in Bramson, Chapter 3.

The formalization supplies explicit random primitives, queue conservation, service clocks, and a continuous-time escape statement. It distinguishes these from deterministic fluid nonstability and from merely failing to possess a stationary law. The source theorem is established mathematics; the new Lean items are statements awaiting proofs. The reused arrival strong law already has a published proof. The separately recorded workload finding identifies a numbered supporting assertion that requires source review or disproof.

Difficulty: actual jobs, residual service, and all real times

Mean loads omit the interaction between service priorities and routing. A bound for a deterministic fluid trajectory alone does not establish the stochastic escape event. Actual service requirements, finite initial populations, and completion counts must remain connected to the queue paths.

The all-time assertions also require care: an almost-sure statement for each fixed time does not automatically give one event valid at every real time. Hitting times may initially take the value infinity. Workload is another sensitive interface because transitions between classes at the same station can change which service requirements count as immediate work. These are distinctions in the mathematical objects, rather than choices of proof technique.

Formalization scope

Published general queueing-network data provide station assignments, routing, means, external rates, and capacities. The paper-specific data specialize them to the fixed four-class route. Published Poisson-process definitions supply the arrival law; the phase-type fields of their containing baseline structure are not imposed on this network. The arrival strong law is used with one arrival class, rate one, and zero processing activities.

Lean classes and stations are indexed from zero. Queue counts remain unbounded, time is real, and positive service means are never replaced by zero. Service clocks sum actual independent exponential requirements. Allocated service is the integral of the measurable zero-or-one priority rule; this integrand is integrable on every bounded interval. Immediate workload uses (4.44), with internal routed arrivals included.

The hitting-time infimum uses nonnegative extended reals, so the empty hitting set has value infinity. Finiteness is a conclusion. The departure limsup is expressed by its equivalent positive-epsilon tail bound, preserving the exact reciprocal constant. There are no big-O constants or unspecified high-probability thresholds in the selected results. Equation (3.8)'s printed “as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞” is read as real t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞, with the typo recorded.

The process is defined by primitives and dynamics independently of instability; neither escape nor its supporting service exclusion is assumed in a definition. Contributions require faithful proofs or source-supported disproofs of the stated targets. General network data and the Poisson law are reused; the priority dynamics remain specific to this example.

Selected references

  • Maury Bramson, Stability of Queueing Networks, Lecture Notes in Mathematics 1950, Springer, 2008. DOI. Primary source: Chapter 3, especially printed pages 53–58; workload convention: equation (4.44), printed page 102.
  • J. G. Dai and J. Michael Harrison, Processing Networks: Fluid Models and Stability, pre-publication draft dated April 2, 2020, Proposition 2.2. Published Lean arrival strong law, used only in the rate-one Poisson specialization.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations Research·Captain: Shuze Chen

Duopoly Competition with Network Effects in Discrete Choice Models: Exactly two asymmetric equilibriaResearch Paper

Competition between identical firms

Network effects make a product more attractive when other customers use it. In a market with two otherwise identical products, that feedback raises a concrete question: must an equilibrium still exist in which the firms attract equal market shares? Chen and Chen's Proposition 4 identifies a regime in which the answer is negative. At sufficiently low common quality and intermediate network strength, the paper asserts exactly two asymmetric pure equilibria and no symmetric equilibrium, including an unstable one. This mission formalizes that claim for the paper's share-choice model. Chen and Chen (2021), supplied artifact, p. 22.

The distinction matters when interpreting market dominance. Unequal outcomes need not originate in unequal product qualities or unequal customer populations. Here both firms face the same primitives; the two claimed outcomes exchange their roles. The result concerns equilibrium market shares, without asserting a particular adjustment process or a complete classification of all parameter values.

Customers, shares and revenue

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 customers and two firms, XXX and YYY. Each customer may choose either product or an outside option. The multinomial logit model uses a deterministic utility combining quality, a price penalty, and network benefits, together with an idiosyncratic random utility. The outside option has deterministic utility zero. Common product quality is α∈R\alpha\in\mathbb Rα∈R, common price sensitivity is β>0\beta>0β>0, and every network coefficient, including a customer's own diagonal coefficient, is gij=γ/(2n)g_{ij}=\gamma/(2n)gij​=γ/(2n) for γ≥0\gamma\ge0γ≥0.

The Cournot game takes purchase probabilities, or shares, as the firms' strategies. Each firm must choose the same share for every customer: xxx for XXX and yyy for YYY. This restriction applies to deviations as well as equilibrium profiles. It does not require x=yx=yx=y. The source imposes these restrictions in Assumptions 1–3; it does not derive customer-uniform play from homogeneity. Sections 3–4.2, pp. 10–17.

The inverse price transformation gives XXX's revenue as n/βn/\betan/β times the normalized revenue

Rα,γ(x,y)=x(α+γx2−log⁡x+log⁡(1−x−y))R_{\alpha,\gamma}(x,y)=x\left(\alpha+\frac{\gamma x}{2}-\log x+\log(1-x-y)\right)Rα,γ​(x,y)=x(α+2γx​−logx+log(1−x−y))

when x>0x>0x>0 and x+y<1x+y<1x+y<1. Firm YYY receives the same expression with the shares exchanged. At own share zero the payoff is zero, including when the rival occupies the entire market. A positive own share with x+y≥1x+y\ge1x+y≥1 gives −∞-\infty−∞. These cases reproduce the source's boundary convention. Negative prices are allowed in deviations; no additional price-feasibility constraint is imposed. Equation (7), p. 16; proof of Proposition 1, ec1.

The best-response correspondence retains all global maximizers:

BR⁡α,γ(y)={x∈[0,1]: ∀u∈[0,1], Rα,γ(u,y)≤Rα,γ(x,y)}.\operatorname{BR}_{\alpha,\gamma}(y)= \{x\in[0,1]:\ \forall u\in[0,1],\ R_{\alpha,\gamma}(u,y)\le R_{\alpha,\gamma}(x,y)\}.BRα,γ​(y)={x∈[0,1]: ∀u∈[0,1], Rα,γ​(u,y)≤Rα,γ​(x,y)}.

A pure Nash equilibrium is a pair with x∈BR⁡(y)x\in\operatorname{BR}(y)x∈BR(y) and y∈BR⁡(x)y\in\operatorname{BR}(x)y∈BR(x). The zero deviation and every feasible positive deviation are included.

Formalization targets

The goal is Proposition 4. There exist α0∈R\alpha_0\in\mathbb Rα0​∈R and finite real functions Γ‾,Γ‾\underline\Gamma,\overline\GammaΓ​,Γ such that, for every α<α0\alpha<\alpha_0α<α0​,

0≤Γ‾(α)<Γ‾(α),0\le\underline\Gamma(\alpha)<\overline\Gamma(\alpha),0≤Γ​(α)<Γ(α),

and, for every γ∈(Γ‾(α),Γ‾(α))\gamma\in(\underline\Gamma(\alpha),\overline\Gamma(\alpha))γ∈(Γ​(α),Γ(α)), there are 0<a<b0<a<b0<a<b with a+b<1a+b<1a+b<1 for which

{(x,y):NE⁡α,γ(x,y)}={(a,b),(b,a)}.\{(x,y):\operatorname{NE}_{\alpha,\gamma}(x,y)\}=\{(a,b),(b,a)\}.{(x,y):NEα,γ​(x,y)}={(a,b),(b,a)}.

Both existence and exclusion of every other equilibrium are part of the goal. The thresholds depend only on common quality. No numerical quality cutoff or particular network strength is substituted for these quantifiers. Proposition 4, p. 22.

The sole milestone is the complete five-part Lemma EC.1. Define h(t)=t+log⁡th(t)=t+\log th(t)=t+logt on t>0t>0t>0, its inverse H(s)=W(es)H(s)=W(e^s)H(s)=W(es), and the stationary-response curve

yˉ(x)=1−x−xH(α−1+γx).\bar y(x)=1-x-\frac{x}{H(\alpha-1+\gamma x)}.yˉ​(x)=1−x−H(α−1+γx)x​.

The lemma states positivity, inverse identities, monotonicity and derivative formulas for h,Hh,Hh,H; concavity and convexity of h(x/(1−2x))h(x/(1-2x))h(x/(1−2x)) on the two intervals divided by (3−5)/4(3-\sqrt5)/4(3−5​)/4; yˉ(0)=1\bar y(0)=1yˉ​(0)=1 and existence of global best responses to zero, all below one; the derivative formula and its three comparisons with −1-1−1; and increasing derivative below (eα+1)/γ(e^\alpha+1)/\gamma(eα+1)/γ together with exactly one zero of the second derivative on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). Definition 1, p. 16; Lemma EC.1, ec3–ec4.

What the formalization establishes

The headline conclusion separates symmetry of primitives from symmetry of outcomes. An exact description of the equilibrium set is stronger than finding two sample equilibria or ruling out one symmetric candidate. It remains a claim about global incentives in the stated game.

The paper supplies a proof, but the present theorem items are unproved formal statements. A completed development would provide a machine-checked account of the boundary-sensitive payoff, global optimality comparisons, and existential parameter regime. The payoff and best-response definitions are reusable for other questions about this same game. The inverse-map calculus is also independently reusable. The published Lambert W definition is reused as a mathematical dependency; its unrelated advance-sales payoffs are not imported into the economic model.

Difficulty and source issues

The revenue need not be concave in a firm's own share. A stationary point can fail to maximize revenue globally, and several local maxima can compete. Consequently, solving first-order equations or intersecting stationary curves does not establish Nash equilibrium. Likewise, proving that one response to one fixed rival action is unique does not by itself establish uniqueness of the equilibrium pair.

Two source-proof concerns are recorded in findings F1–F2: the tangent construction on ec8 uses inconsistent intercepts, and the final step on ec14–ec16 does not explicitly exclude all additional asymmetric pairs. These findings do not disprove Proposition 4. The full printed conclusion remains the target, with these issues disclosed for review. Proof of Proposition 4, ec6–ec16.

Finding F5 also records a sign error in the argument of the inverse map in the left denominator of the proof display (EC.5). It affects that intermediate expression, not the statement of the supporting lemma. Lemma EC.1 proof, ec4.

Formalization scope

Shares and parameters are real numbers, and payoffs take values in the extended real line. Division by the positive common factor n/βn/\betan/β removes customer count and price sensitivity without changing any revenue comparison. Both firms remain independent players. The definitions allow ties and do not select an arbitrary stationary root as a best response.

The lemma assumes γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, making explicit the domain implicit in its quotient threshold. This restriction is necessary for its unique-inflection clause: at α=2,γ=0\alpha=2,\gamma=0α=2,γ=0, the curve is 1−2x1-2x1−2x, whose second derivative vanishes everywhere (F3). The goal's interval contains only positive strengths. Inverse identities and differentiability are conclusions, never hypotheses inserted to simplify the task.

An empty parameter interval, an assumed equilibrium classification, or a definition of equilibrium using only first-order conditions would trivialize or change the goal and is excluded. Mathlib supplies real analysis, derivatives, convexity, order, and extended real numbers. This mission adds three definition modules and two theorem statements, with no variants. Independent propositions on other network regimes, heterogeneous customers, and dynamic games remain outside its scope.

The inherited citation basis is published, linked to the journal DOI. However, the supplied 89-page artifact displays a submission template and SSRN 3044192 footers. All statements use this fixed artifact's numbering: printed pages 1–44 coincide with PDF pages 1–44, and ec1–ec45 with PDF pages 45–89. Its SHA256 is 3b7d5994f974cad6aca865d84f1eb7353d5e46afaf5e3064a4f08fe2e2d251c0. This provenance discrepancy remains disclosed for reconciliation; no different version is mixed into the mission.

Selected references

  • Chen and Chen, Duopoly Competition with Network Effects in Discrete Choice Models, Operations Research, 2021. DOI 10.1287/opre.2020.2079. Statements and page numbers refer to the supplied artifact identified above.
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🏆Completed
Functional Analysis·Captain: shivm

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constants: lower the cutoff to 6Open Problem

This mission records the proved extension of the sharp diagonal Hlawka constant to every real p≥6p\ge6p≥6, for arbitrary complex vectors in every finite dimension. It uses the unchanged definitions from the foundation mission.

The cutoff-6 goal theorem is already proved, with no open dependencies. Its conclusion gives both the Hlawka inequality and optimality of the cyclic constant. Sixty-five verified interval proofs cover [6,8][6,8][6,8] and join the proved cutoff-8 result.

This is an entry in the sharp diagonal Hlawka campaign. The value 6 is a proved sufficient cutoff, without a claim that it is optimal.

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🏆Completed
Functional Analysis·Captain: shivm

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constants: lower the cutoff to 4Open Problem

The campaign cyclic constant is proved sharp for every real p≥4p\ge4p≥4, uniformly over finite-dimensional complex vectors. The Lean proof combines the complete real three-dimensional interval [4,6][4,6][4,6] with the proved cutoff-six result and the campaign reductions.

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🏆Completed
Functional Analysis·Captain: shivm

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constants: lower the cutoff to 8Open Problem

This mission records the proved extension of the sharp diagonal Hlawka constant to every real p≥8p\ge8p≥8, for arbitrary complex vectors in every finite dimension. It uses the unchanged definitions from the foundation mission.

The cutoff-8 goal theorem is already proved. Its conclusion gives both the Hlawka inequality and optimality of the cyclic constant. Thirty-two verified interval proofs cover [8,12][8,12][8,12] and join the proved cutoff-12 result.

This is an entry in the sharp diagonal Hlawka campaign. The value 8 is a proved sufficient cutoff, without a claim that it is optimal.

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🏆Completed
Formal VerificationTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: pitimespi

Bitcoin Block Validation Composed, Revision 2: C(S,B,t)C(S,B,t)C(S,B,t) Accepts iff V(S,B,t)V(S,B,t)V(S,B,t), ApplySpec, DisconnectBlockTextbook

Revision 2

This proposal supersedes the published mission Bitcoin Block Validation Composed (definition BitcoinBlock, 19 theorems). A line-by-line source review of that definition against the pinned revision found one transcription error: the transaction sigop cost added, for every non-P2SH spent output, the accurate sigop count of that output's script, whereas GetP2SHSigOpCount counts only redeem scripts of P2SH spent outputs. A plain P2PKH spend therefore cost 8 weight units instead of 4, so the model could reject a block Core accepts near the 80,000 limit, never the converse. The corrected p2shSigOpCount is the only change to the definition; all nineteen theorem statements are unchanged and their proofs re-check as they were. The review, the probe that exposed the error, and 35 sigop vectors with hand-derived expectations are in the repository (REVIEW_SPOT11.md, tests/SigOpVectors.lean).

Why the composition is the consensus rule

Every component mission transcribed one layer of Bitcoin Core's validation: the subsidy schedule, compact targets and retargeting, the merkle root, the ledger accounting, median time past and the header rules, the activation heights and flag exceptions, serialization and hashing, the Script interpreter, the signature layer, the SegWit and Taproot dispatch. None of them is a consensus rule on its own. The rule is the way AcceptBlockHeader, CheckBlock, ContextualCheckBlock and ConnectBlock combine them — in which order the tests run, which ledger each transaction sees, where the fees and sigop costs accumulate, what the clock may reject, which historical blocks are exempt, and what state results. This mission writes that composition down, as the executable C(S,B,t)C(S,B,t)C(S,B,t) of the umbrella contract, states the declarative V(S,B,t)V(S,B,t)V(S,B,t) and ApplySpec(S,B)\mathrm{ApplySpec}(S,B)ApplySpec(S,B) independently, and proves the two contract theorems. (validation.cpp, tx_verify.cpp, chainparams.cpp)

The validation path

A chain state is the list of validated headers from the genesis to the tip together with the UTXO set (a ledger of coins: output, creation height, coinbase flag). The genesis state holds the genesis header and an empty ledger, as the source never adds the genesis coinbase. A candidate block is offered with the local clock ttt; the outcome is accept S' undo, invalid, futureTime (BLOCK_TIME_FUTURE, a temporary rejection) or missingPrev (the block does not build on the tip).

Header path (AcceptBlockHeader): proof of work, the parent lookup, then ContextualCheckBlockHeader in source order — nBits against GetNextWorkRequired (the period's first block supplied from the chain), the median-time-past floor, the two-hour ceiling against the clock, the BIP34/66/65 version floors. CheckBlock: merkle root and mutation, size and count limits, exactly one coinbase first, CheckTransaction for every transaction, the legacy sigop bound. ContextualCheckBlock: IsFinalTx against the lock-time cutoff (median time past once CSV is active), the BIP34 height push in the coinbase, CheckWitnessMalleation (the commitment in the last qualifying coinbase output, the 32-byte nonce, or no witness at all), the weight limit. ConnectBlock: the genesis shortcut, the BIP30 scan with IsBIP30Repeat and the BIP34 shortcut, GetBlockScriptFlags with the two exception blocks, and the loop — CheckTxInputs, the fee range, SequenceLocks, GetTransactionSigOpCost against 80,000, CheckInputScripts through the complete VerifyScript (Taproot branch included), UpdateCoins — then the coinbase bound against GetBlockSubsidy. DisconnectBlock spends the block's outputs back and restores the inputs from the undo data in reverse, with the clean flag and the two unspendable-coinbase exceptions.

Every layer below is the published mission's function: coreSubsidy, nextWorkRequired, checkProofOfWork, computeMerkleRoot, medianTimePast, versionOutdated, blockScriptFlags, lockTimeFlags, sequenceLocks, verifyScriptFull. Nothing is re-transcribed.

The specification

V(S,B,t)V(S,B,t)V(S,B,t) is a predicate, not a program: a header predicate in the PoW mission's specTarget form with the parent, difficulty, time floor, clock ceiling and version floors; a block predicate; a contextual predicate; and a ledger predicate that quantifies over the transactions in sequence — each spends existing, mature coins of valid value, the inputs cover the outputs, the BIP68 specification satisfiesBIP68 holds, every input script verifies, the fees and sigop costs stay within their bounds, BIP30 freshness holds where the scan applies, and the coinbase is bounded by the fees plus the specification subsidy. ApplySpec(S,B)\mathrm{ApplySpec}(S,B)ApplySpec(S,B) extends the headers and folds UpdateCoins over the transactions.

Formalization targets

  1. Genesis (genesis_checkBlock): the mainnet genesis block passes CheckBlock, by kernel evaluation.
  2. Header path (acceptHeader_iff), time classification (futureTime_iff, validate_clock, futureTime_transient): the future-time rejection is exactly characterized, transient, and the only clock dependence.
  3. Layer characterizations (checkTransaction_iff, checkBlock_iff, contextualCheck_iff, checkTxInputs_iff, sequenceLocks_iff, connectLoop_iff, connectBlock_iff): each Boolean stage equals its predicate, the BIP68 one through the published fold_acceptance.
  4. History (bip30_history): exactly when the BIP30 scan is skipped.
  5. State (connectBlock_apply, apply_spec, reachable_wellFormed, work_increases): the resulting ledger is the fold, reachable states are well formed, chain work strictly increases.
  6. Undo (disconnect_connect): the undo data restores the previous ledger, cleanly.
  7. Goal (acceptance): R(S)⇒(C(S,B,t) accepts  ⟺  V(S,B,t))R(S) \Rightarrow (C(S,B,t)\text{ accepts} \iff V(S,B,t))R(S)⇒(C(S,B,t) accepts⟺V(S,B,t)).

What the result establishes

With the component missions, the umbrella's two contract theorems are now Lean theorems about a concrete, source-linked rendering of the pinned mainnet rules, with no parameter left abstract: hashes are SHA-256d, signatures are secp256k1 ECDSA and BIP340 Schnorr, scripts run through the full interpreter, and the historical exceptions are the source's. The definitions were exercised on the real chain: the genesis block, blocks 1–170 as the header chain, and block 170 — the first transaction between two users — validates end to end against the ledger holding block 9's coinbase, is rejected when its signature is altered or the spent coinbase is immature, is classified futureTime at an early clock, and disconnects back to the original ledger cleanly.

What remains outside: the proof-of-work hardness and signature unforgeability (computational assumptions, not functional correctness), the on-disk and networking layers, and a reorganization across multiple blocks, which is the disconnect theorem applied in sequence.

Where the obvious argument fails

The loop breaks at the first failing transaction and threads four accumulators; its characterization needs the fee total and sigop cost to be non-negative so that running-range tests collapse to the final bound, which in turn needs the block predicate's non-negative outputs — the hypotheses on connectLoop_iff and connectBlock_iff. CheckTxInputs uses nSpendHeight - coin.nHeight with natural subtraction, which happens to agree with the specification form for every coin height. The future-time test sits in the middle of the header chain, so classifying it requires the four earlier tests to pass. DisconnectBlock restores inputs in reverse and spends outputs by exact match, so the identity needs the txids distinct, the outputs fresh and every ledger coin spendable with a positive height — which is where reachability and the BIP30 scan enter.

Formalization scope

Policy is off; fJustCheck is false; assumed-valid shortcuts are not modeled (scripts are always checked). The chain is linear: a header whose parent is not the tip is the missingPrev outcome, as BLOCK_MISSING_PREV is not a validity verdict. Block hashes and byte orders are those of the serialization mission. No Mathlib is required; the development imports only Std.

Selected references

  • Bitcoin Core contributors. validation.cpp, consensus/tx_verify.cpp, consensus/tx_check.cpp, coins.cpp, kernel/chainparams.cpp at revision a773e1e33b349dc819b5a0edc1c7a4839dc73b48. Source
  • Pieter Wuille. BIP30: Duplicate transactions, 2012. Specification
  • Gavin Andresen. BIP34: Block v2, Height in Coinbase, 2012. Specification
  • Thomas Kerin, Mark Friedenbach. BIP113: Median time-past as endpoint for lock-time calculations, 2015. Specification
  • Eric Lombrozo, Johnson Lau, Pieter Wuille. BIP141: Segregated Witness, 2015. Specification
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Number Theory·Captain: sthubbar

Explicit Mertens bounds for ∑p≤xlog⁡p/p\sum_{p\le x}\log p/p∑p≤x​logp/p: Decomp1528aResearch Paper

For a real cutoff x≥1x\ge1x≥1, consider the weighted prime sum ∑p≤xlog⁡p/p\sum_{p\le x}\log p/p∑p≤x​logp/p, where ppp ranges over primes and log⁡\loglog is the natural logarithm. Mertens' first theorem says that this sum differs from log⁡x\log xlogx by a bounded amount. This mission asks for the explicit bound ∣∑p≤xlog⁡p/p−log⁡x∣≤2\left|\sum_{p\le x}\log p/p-\log x\right|\le2​∑p≤x​logp/p−logx​≤2 over the entire stated range.

The open statements also concern the logarithm of a factorial, finite sums of log⁡p/[p(p−1)]\log p/[p(p-1)]logp/[p(p−1)], and the von Mangoldt function Λ\LambdaΛ, which equals log⁡p\log plogp at positive prime powers and zero elsewhere. Chebyshev's functions θ\thetaθ and ψ\psiψ record the corresponding accumulated logarithmic weights. These objects provide explicit control of prime sums used in analytic number theory and sieve estimates. Exact constants and endpoint ranges matter when such estimates feed into quantitative results about almost primes, integers with few prime factors.

The source context is P. J. Campbell, A Sharper Explicit Result for the Sum of Two Almost Primes, Section 4. The lab identifies the classical background as Rosser and Schoenfeld, Approximate formulas for some functions of prime numbers, Illinois Journal of Mathematics 6, 1962, especially p. 70, with factorial identities also attributed to Ingham and Montgomery and Vaughan. These are lab formulations of classical material, rather than a claim that every displayed leaf is printed verbatim in Campbell.

The statements come from an AI-run Lean lab. Drafts undergo human audit before submission to the public platform; this draft is prepared for that audit. The mission contains eleven open leaves and one assembly goal, using only Mathlib objects. No new mathematical result is claimed, and Goldbach's conjecture remains open.

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Number Theory·Captain: sthubbar

Vaughan's first moment distribution bound for x≥1052x\ge10^{52}x≥1052: Decomp1525cResearch Paper

This mission concerns an explicit first moment estimate for representations by two odd primes. For a real parameter xxx, the weighted count Ψ(x)\Psi(x)Ψ(x) assigns weight log⁡p1\log p_1logp1​ to prime pairs with 3≤p1≤x−33\le p_1\le x-33≤p1​≤x−3 and x−p1<p2≤2x−p1x-p_1<p_2\le2x-p_1x−p1​<p2​≤2x−p1​. The comparison term is M(x)=∫3xu/log⁡u du+∫x2x(2x−u)/log⁡u duM(x)=\int_3^x u/\log u\,du+\int_x^{2x}(2x-u)/\log u\,duM(x)=∫3x​u/logudu+∫x2x​(2x−u)/logudu. The moving interval sum Ix(u)I_x(u)Ix​(u) records the logarithmic weights of admissible primes at a given integration parameter.

The target is ∣Ψ(x)−M(x)∣<x2/(5log⁡2x)|\Psi(x)-M(x)|<x^2/(5\log^2x)∣Ψ(x)−M(x)∣<x2/(5log2x) for x≥1052x\ge10^{52}x≥1052, conditional on two explicit inputs: a Chebyshev theta error estimate above 678407678407678407 and a preliminary prime pair integral approximation valid throughout the target range. The individual tasks specify exact identities, integrability assertions, and numerical error estimates. Each hypothesis and constant is retained from the lab file. The assembly statement is included as the mission goal even though its assembly proof already exists in the lab; the ten leaves remain open.

The source is R. C. Vaughan, On the estimation of Schnirelman's constant, Journal für die reine und angewandte Mathematik 290, 1977, pages 93 to 108, specifically page 103 in the proof of Lemma 11. Such explicit estimates support bounds for expressing integers as sums of a bounded number of primes. Binary Goldbach remains open.

These statements come from an AI-run Lean lab, with AI-written Lean code, and were audited by a human before submission. This is a draft for the platform's human audit before submission; it supplies no new proofs.

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Number Theory·Captain: sthubbar

Large deviations of the power-of-two sum GL(x)G_L(x)GL​(x), after Pintz and RuzsaResearch Paper

Linnik's approximation to Goldbach's problem says every large even number is a sum of two primes and a bounded number KKK of powers of two. Pintz and Ruzsa, On Linnik's approximation to Goldbach's problem, I, Acta Arith. 109 (2003), 169-194, prove K=8K=8K=8 under GRH and need sharp control of the exponential sum over powers of two, GL(x)=∑j<Le(2jx)G_L(x)=\sum_{j<L}e(2^jx)GL​(x)=∑j<L​e(2jx).

This mission formalizes the large deviation estimate behind their Corollary 1 of Section 7: the set of x∈[0,1]x\in[0,1]x∈[0,1] where ∣GL(x)∣>dL|G_L(x)|>dL∣GL​(x)∣>dL has measure at most 11(1+λL)e−λdLEL(λ)11(1+\lambda L)e^{-\lambda dL}E_L(\lambda)11(1+λL)e−λdLEL​(λ), where EL(λ)=∫01eλSLE_L(\lambda)=\int_0^1 e^{\lambda S_L}EL​(λ)=∫01​eλSL​ and SL=Re⁡GLS_L=\operatorname{Re}G_LSL​=ReGL​. The constant c(1+A)c(1+\sqrt A)c(1+A​) of their Lemma 4 is replaced by the weaker 11(1+A)11(1+A)11(1+A), which loses only a polynomial factor in LLL.

The milestones are the steps of the argument: an exponential Chebyshev inequality, a truncated even exponential series, the middle binomial term comparison of moments of ∣GL∣|G_L|∣GL​∣ and SLS_LSL​, 4j≤(2j+1)(2jj)4^j\le(2j+1)\binom{2j}{j}4j≤(2j+1)(j2j​), nonnegativity of the moments of SLS_LSL​, and the even partial sums of the exponential moment.

The statements come from an AI-run Lean 4 formalization lab working on Goldbach-type results, where they are open leaves; a human audited each statement against the paper before submission.

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AnalysisProbability·Captain: WillR

Financial Derivatives VI: Heat Kernels, Black-Scholes European Prices and Deterministic CarryTextbook

Motivation

This single substantial mission combines the mathematical work formerly scheduled as FD-06, FD-07 and FD-08 in the Financial Derivatives programme. It develops the heat equation, Gaussian diffusion kernels, the analytic Black–Scholes European call/put formulas and their sensitivities, followed by continuous dividends, forwards and deterministic time-varying short rates, dividend yields and total volatility.

Primary source: Wilmott, Howison and Dewynne, The Mathematics of Financial Derivatives (1995), Chapter 4 (printed pp. 58–70), Chapter 5 (pp. 71–89) and Chapter 6 (pp. 90–105); European-option context in Chapter 3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511812545. This is a rigorous mathematical extension of the source's pedagogical derivations, not a claim that every named Lean theorem appears verbatim.

Setting

Let S>0 and K>0 be spot and strike. For a pricing time t<T and deterministic short rate r(u), dividend yield q(u), and volatility σ(u), define R=∫_t^T r(u)du, Q=∫_t^T q(u)du, and V=∫_t^T σ(u)^2du. Work first with scalar cumulative inputs R,Q,V and V>0, later prove that the deterministic integrals instantiate them. Let Z have the standard normal probability law. Independently define the call and put prices as the discounted Gaussian integrals of max(S exp(R-Q-V/2+sqrt(V) Z)-K,0) and max(K-S exp(R-Q-V/2+sqrt(V) Z),0).

With Φ the standard normal CDF, d1=[log(S/K)+R-Q+V/2]/sqrt(V) and d2=d1-sqrt(V), the main theorem derives, rather than assumes,

C=S exp(-Q) Φ(d1)-K exp(-R) Φ(d2), P=K exp(-R) Φ(-d2)-S exp(-Q) Φ(-d1), C-P=S exp(-Q)-K exp(-R).

The root is an analytic lognormal Gaussian-valuation theorem. A continuous-time risk-neutral pricing or self-financing replication theorem must only be asserted after a genuinely verified Brownian/Itô/self-financing development exists.

For future consistency with the book, the principal formulas are displayed explicitly:

d1=log⁡(S/K)+R−Q+V/2V,d2=d1−V.d_1 = \frac{\log(S/K)+R-Q+V/2}{\sqrt V}, \qquad d_2=d_1-\sqrt V.d1​=V​log(S/K)+R−Q+V/2​,d2​=d1​−V​. C=Se−QΦ(d1)−Ke−RΦ(d2),P=Ke−RΦ(−d2)−Se−QΦ(−d1).C=S e^{-Q}\Phi(d_1)-K e^{-R}\Phi(d_2), \qquad P=K e^{-R}\Phi(-d_2)-S e^{-Q}\Phi(-d_1).C=Se−QΦ(d1​)−Ke−RΦ(d2​),P=Ke−RΦ(−d2​)−Se−QΦ(−d1​). C−P=Se−Q−Ke−R.C-P=S e^{-Q}-K e^{-R}.C−P=Se−Q−Ke−R.

The definitions of Gaussian expectation, analytical call/put closed forms and deterministic carry are different declarations. In particular the source of the expected terminal payoff does not contain the final closed formula.

Formalization targets

Workstream A: Gaussian diffusion and heat-equation foundations (former FD-06)

Define the Gaussian density, normalized heat kernel and heat-flow convolution. Prove positivity, Gaussian normalization, convolution semigroup, preservation of constants, convergence to prescribed initial data, and a classical heat equation for appropriately regular/bounded data. Treat the Black–Scholes-to-heat-equation logarithmic/similarity substitution with explicit hypotheses on time, spot, regularity, and transformed boundaries. Do not assert uniqueness without a legitimate growth or boundary class. These results are independently reusable for PDE and diffusion work.

Workstream B: European formulas and Greeks (former FD-07)

Prove Gaussian CDF symmetry and limits, Gaussian moment-generating and exponential-tilting identities, tail integrals, actual Gaussian payoff integrability, exact call and put expectation-to-closed-form formulae, put-call parity and nonnegative price bounds. Prove strike monotonicity and analytically justified Delta and Gamma formulas; add Vega, digital options, Rho and Theta as further milestones only with the required parameter/regularity assumptions. Identify the relationship with the constant-coefficient Black–Scholes PDE and its true expiry condition.

Workstream C: dividends, carry and variable coefficients (former FD-08)

Develop interval-integrated r, q and σ², their additivity and positivity, continuous-dividend forward F(t,T)=S exp(R-Q), prepaid-forward identity, generalised parity, zero-yield and constant-parameter reductions. Derive the nonautonomous European PDE only when the coefficient functions have the differentiability needed for time derivatives and the remaining integrated variance is positive. Prove terminal payoff convergence, including S=K and degenerate integrated variance, as a separately guarded limit theorem. Discrete cash dividends, stochastic rates and volatility, American early exercise and path-dependent barriers are outside this root.

The three workstreams connect through the Gaussian integral and PDE transform:

V(t,S)=e−R(t,T)∫Rg(SeR(t,T)−Q(t,T)−V(t,T)/2+V(t,T)z) φ(z) dz.V(t,S) = e^{-R(t,T)}\int_{\mathbb R} g\left(S e^{R(t,T)-Q(t,T)-V(t,T)/2+\sqrt{V(t,T)}z}\right) \,\varphi(z)\,dz.V(t,S)=e−R(t,T)∫R​g(SeR(t,T)−Q(t,T)−V(t,T)/2+V(t,T)​z)φ(z)dz.

The call/put integral equals the closed form only after the preceding Gaussian tilt and tail-probability lemmas have been proved.

Significance

As motivated by Wilmott, Howison and Dewynne (1995), this provides a reusable analytic foundation for the remaining financial derivatives programme, including later American options, parabolic PDE solvers, barrier first-passage problems and diffusion limits. The mission is longer than its predecessors but retains a single main theorem with several independent mathematical support branches. Its core price equalities hold for a parameter set that includes negative rates and nonzero dividends, with no artificial restriction to a positive bank-account interest rate. The heat-kernel lemmas remain useful even outside financial applications. The mission distinguishes continuous-time analytic valuation from the earlier finite-binomial prices and does not assert their limit is established until proved separately.

Difficulty

The largest proof challenges are Gaussian exponential tilting of truncated tails, differentiating the normal distribution function in a formal library, a heat-flow semigroup and regularity argument, and the inhomogeneous Black–Scholes PDE under changing coefficients. These must be genuine intermediate theorems, not definitions rephrasing the desired conclusion. Even proving the Gaussian payoff integrable requires controlling an exponential of a Gaussian. Heat-flow continuity and differentiation under the integral need appropriate domination and function-space assumptions; uniqueness requires a valid growth condition. A complete proof may require substantial new Mathlib support. Divide difficult analytic equalities into reusable finite lemmas without generating hundreds of nearly identical trivial statements.

Formalization scope

Maintain one mission with reusable, small theorem statements, split into heat-kernel, Gaussian valuation and deterministic coefficient branches. The root depends on nontrivial Gaussian tail/integral proofs plus CDF symmetry; the term-structure branch specializes the integrated inputs, and the PDE branch relates the heat equation to the pricing operator. Reuse FD-01 to FD-05 only where their authoritative proved definitions and theorems genuinely apply; FD-05 remains a discrete-binomial construction and is not a substitute for the missing stochastic continuous-time foundations. All draft sources require pinned Mathlib and server-side Lean compiler checks. No unverified statement is Proved, and no required equality may be smuggled in as a hypothesis.

Edge cases: S,K>0, V>0 for closed-form d1,d2, nonnegative variance on t≤T, rates and dividends of either sign, t=T handled by a terminal limit, zero dividends, constant coefficients and call/put consistency. Keeping a single root does not mean one theorem must contain every independent PDE and Greek statement.

The first proof layer treats a purely analytic standard Gaussian random variable and the associated Bochner integrals. The second layer proves the explicit payoffs, parity and sensitivities. The third layer connects the integrated parameters to actual real interval integrals of coefficient functions. The heat-flow layer establishes diffusion identities and the constant-coefficient similarity correspondence. An advanced separate layer addresses the nonautonomous PDE and uniqueness if its needed hypotheses can be fully stated.

A candidate is complete only after Prove2Me returns a verified remote verdict for the exact theorem and revision. Existing FD-01 through FD-04 theorem results are reported as Proved in their reviewed proposals; FD-05 is in review; all FD-06 statements remain draft and unverified. Newly entered draft statements may initially contain declaration-level placeholders for authoring, but these are never submitted as proof candidates, published as Proved or used as proof dependencies. The main theorem must not include assumptions asserting either the call or put equality it is intended to establish.

Selected references

  • Wilmott, Howison and Dewynne (1995), The Mathematics of Financial Derivatives. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511812545.
  • Prove2Me mission programme editors (2026), Financial Derivatives mission programme. https://prove2.me/.
  • Lean community (2026), Mathlib Gaussian distribution documentation. https://leanprover-community.github.io/mathlib4_docs/Mathlib/Probability/Distributions/Gaussian/Real.html.
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