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Actuarial ScienceOperations ResearchPartial Differential Equations+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Optimal Reinsurance and Dividend Payout in Finite Time Horizon I: The HJB Variational Inequality Has a Unique Classical Solution with v_x ≥ 1, v_xx ≤ 0 and λv_x + v_xx ≥ 0Research Paper

Dividends, reinsurance and a finite horizon

An insurer that pays dividends to its shareholders faces a trade-off studied since de Finetti (1957): paying out surplus early raises the discounted payout but brings ruin closer. Reinsurance changes the trade-off, because ceding part of each claim lowers the volatility of the surplus at the price of a reinsurance premium. When the insurer may choose both the dividend stream and, at every moment, an arbitrary reinsurance contract, the problem becomes a mixed singular–classical stochastic control problem. Most of the literature treats it on an infinite horizon, where the value function solves an ordinary differential equation. On a finite horizon TTT the value function also depends on time to maturity, the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation becomes a parabolic variational inequality with a gradient constraint, and neither its solvability nor the regularity of its solution is classical.

Guan, Xu and Zhou (arXiv:2008.00391v3, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023) show by PDE methods that this variational inequality has a classical solution, identify it with the value function, and read the optimal reinsurance contract and dividend barrier off its derivatives. This mission formalizes the PDE part: Theorem 3.1 and the steps of Appendix A that lead to it.

Setting

Claims are nonnegative random variables with common distribution function FFF, F(0−)=0F(0-)=0F(0−)=0, possibly discontinuous. The paper assumes the tail condition

z3 (1−F(z)) is bounded on [0,∞),(3.3)z^3\,(1-F(z))\ \text{is bounded on }[0,\infty), \tag{3.3}z3(1−F(z)) is bounded on [0,∞),(3.3)

so the moments μ1=∫0∞z dF(z)\mu_1=\int_0^\infty z\,dF(z)μ1​=∫0∞​zdF(z) and μ2=∫0∞z2 dF(z)\mu_2=\int_0^\infty z^2\,dF(z)μ2​=∫0∞​z2dF(z) are finite. The other data are the net reinsurance loading γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, the discount factor c>0c>0c>0 and the horizon T>0T>0T>0; the mission assumes γ<μ1\gamma<\mu_1γ<μ1​ throughout.

A reinsurance contract is described by the retained loss H(z)H(z)H(z) the insurer keeps out of a claim of size zzz, with 0≤H(z)≤z0\le H(z)\le z0≤H(z)≤z; H\mathcal HH is the set of such functions. For a function v(x,t)v(x,t)v(x,t) of the surplus xxx and the time to maturity ttt the operator

Lv=sup⁡H∈H(vxx2∫0∞H(z)2 dF(z)+vx∫0∞H(z) dF(z))−γvx−cv(3.2)\mathcal Lv=\sup_{H\in\mathcal H}\Big(\frac{v_{xx}}2\int_0^\infty H(z)^2\,dF(z)+v_x\int_0^\infty H(z)\,dF(z)\Big)-\gamma v_x-cv \tag{3.2}Lv=H∈Hsup​(2vxx​​∫0∞​H(z)2dF(z)+vx​∫0∞​H(z)dF(z))−γvx​−cv(3.2)

is the generator of the controlled diffusion approximation of the surplus. The HJB equation is the variational inequality, on QT=(0,∞)×(0,T]\mathcal Q_T=(0,\infty)\times(0,T]QT​=(0,∞)×(0,T],

min⁡{vt−Lv, vx−1}=0,v(0,t)=0,v(x,0)=x.(3.1)\min\{v_t-\mathcal Lv,\ v_x-1\}=0,\qquad v(0,t)=0,\qquad v(x,0)=x. \tag{3.1}min{vt​−Lv, vx​−1}=0,v(0,t)=0,v(x,0)=x.(3.1)

The functions

A(y)=∫01/yz(1−F(z)) dz,B(y)=∫01/y(1−F(z)) dz(y>0),A(y)=\int_0^{1/y}z(1-F(z))\,dz,\qquad B(y)=\int_0^{1/y}(1-F(z))\,dz\qquad(y>0),A(y)=∫01/y​z(1−F(z))dz,B(y)=∫01/y​(1−F(z))dz(y>0),

with A=μ2/2A=\mu_2/2A=μ2​/2 and B=μ1B=\mu_1B=μ1​ for y≤0y\le0y≤0, compute the supremum in (3.2), and f(y)=−yA(y)+B(y)−γf(y)=-yA(y)+B(y)-\gammaf(y)=−yA(y)+B(y)−γ has a unique root λ>0\lambda>0λ>0. The penalized gradient problem (A.17) on QL,T=(0,L)×(0,T]\mathcal Q_{L,T}=(0,L)\times(0,T]QL,T​=(0,L)×(0,T] is

ut−Tu+βε(u−1)=0,(λu+ux)(0,t)=fε(t),u(L,t)=1,u(x,0)=1,u_t-\mathcal Tu+\beta_\varepsilon(u-1)=0,\quad (\lambda u+u_x)(0,t)=f_\varepsilon(t),\quad u(L,t)=1,\quad u(x,0)=1,ut​−Tu+βε​(u−1)=0,(λu+ux​)(0,t)=fε​(t),u(L,t)=1,u(x,0)=1,

with Tu=A(−ux/u)uxx+B(−ux/u)ux−γux−cu\mathcal Tu=A(-u_x/u)u_{xx}+B(-u_x/u)u_x-\gamma u_x-cuTu=A(−ux​/u)uxx​+B(−ux​/u)ux​−γux​−cu, a penalty function βε\beta_\varepsilonβε​ and a boundary datum fεf_\varepsilonfε​ that ramps from λ\lambdaλ down to 000 on [0,ε][0,\varepsilon][0,ε].

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1

There is a unique v∈C2,1(Q‾T∖{(0,0)})∩C(Q‾T)v\in C^{2,1}(\overline{\mathcal Q}_T\setminus\{(0,0)\})\cap C(\overline{\mathcal Q}_T)v∈C2,1(Q​T​∖{(0,0)})∩C(Q​T​) that solves (3.1) and satisfies

vx≥1,vt≥0,vxx≤0,vxxx≥0 (weakly),vxt≥0,λvx+vxx≥0.v_x\ge1,\quad v_t\ge0,\quad v_{xx}\le0,\quad v_{xxx}\ge0\ \text{(weakly)},\quad v_{xt}\ge0,\quad \lambda v_x+v_{xx}\ge0 .vx​≥1,vt​≥0,vxx​≤0,vxxx​≥0 (weakly),vxt​≥0,λvx​+vxx​≥0.

Uniqueness is among solutions in the same class with the same six properties, as equality on Q‾T\overline{\mathcal Q}_TQ​T​.

Milestones

  1. (A.7)–(A.9): AAA, BBB are non-increasing, Lipschitz, bounded by 12min⁡{y−2,μ2}\tfrac12\min\{y^{-2},\mu_2\}21​min{y−2,μ2​} and min⁡{y−1,μ1}\min\{y^{-1},\mu_1\}min{y−1,μ1​}, with y3A′=y2B′=F(1/y)−1y^3A'=y^2B'=F(1/y)-1y3A′=y2B′=F(1/y)−1.
  2. (A.10): Lv=A(−vxx/vx)vxx+B(−vxx/vx)vx−γvx−cv\mathcal Lv=A(-v_{xx}/v_x)v_{xx}+B(-v_{xx}/v_x)v_x-\gamma v_x-cvLv=A(−vxx​/vx​)vxx​+B(−vxx​/vx​)vx​−γvx​−cv when vx>0v_x>0vx​>0.
  3. (A.12)–(A.13): f′=−A<0f'=-A<0f′=−A<0 everywhere, and fff has a unique root, which is positive.
  4. Lemma A.1: A(−y/z)A(-y/z)A(−y/z) and B(−y/z)B(-y/z)B(−y/z) are Lipschitz on R×[1,∞)\mathbb R\times[1,\infty)R×[1,∞).
  5. Lemma A.2: a comparison principle for (A.17) between functions ≥1\ge1≥1.
  6. Lemma A.3: (A.17) has a C2,1C^{2,1}C2,1 solution, and 1≤uε≤KeΛt/(x+1/λ)1\le u^\varepsilon\le Ke^{\Lambda t}/(x+1/\lambda)1≤uε≤KeΛt/(x+1/λ) for small ε\varepsilonε, with K=L+1/λ+1K=L+1/\lambda+1K=L+1/λ+1, Λ=μ2/γ2+γλ\Lambda=\mu_2/\gamma^2+\gamma\lambdaΛ=μ2​/γ2+γλ.
  7. Lemmas A.4–A.6: utε≥0u^\varepsilon_t\ge0utε​≥0, uxε≤0u^\varepsilon_x\le0uxε​≤0, λuε+uxε≥0\lambda u^\varepsilon+u^\varepsilon_x\ge0λuε+uxε​≥0, uxxε≥0u^\varepsilon_{xx}\ge0uxxε​≥0.

Significance

Theorem 3.1 is the analytic core of the paper. The verification theorem (Theorem 3.2) needs a classical solution that is increasing and concave in xxx, which Theorem 3.1 provides, and Section 4 derives the shape of the optimal policy from (3.4)–(3.9): the optimal retained loss is min⁡{z, −vx/vxx}\min\{z,\,-v_x/v_{xx}\}min{z,−vx​/vxx​}, and (3.9) bounds the reinsurance barrier away from zero. Without the existence of a classical solution, the HJB equation could only be interpreted in the viscosity sense, whose uniqueness theory for this mixed singular–classical problem is not available, and the strategies would not be well defined.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing in it has been machine-checked. A formal development would produce, beyond the theorem, a reusable formal treatment of a parabolic obstacle problem with a Robin boundary condition through penalization, comparison principles for quasilinear parabolic equations, and the explicit reduction of a supremum over reinsurance contracts against an arbitrary claim distribution. The appendix lemmas (A.7)–(A.13) and Lemma A.1 are elementary real analysis and are self-contained targets.

Difficulty

The supremum in L\mathcal LL is over a function space and FFF may have atoms, so even the closed form (A.10) and the everywhere-differentiability of fff require care with one-sided derivatives at the jumps of FFF. The operator is fully nonlinear and degenerates as −vxx/vx→∞-v_{xx}/v_x\to\infty−vxx​/vx​→∞, since A(y)→0A(y)\to0A(y)→0. The inequality carries a gradient constraint vx≥1v_x\ge1vx​≥1 rather than an obstacle, and the left boundary condition (λu+ux)(0,t)=0(\lambda u+u_x)(0,t)=0(λu+ux​)(0,t)=0 is incompatible with the initial condition at the corner (0,0)(0,0)(0,0), which is why the solution is only claimed to be C2,1C^{2,1}C2,1 away from that corner. The obvious route, solving (3.1) directly by a fixed-point argument, does not control vxxv_{xx}vxx​; the paper differentiates in xxx and works with the gradient u=vxu=v_xu=vx​, which turns the gradient constraint into an obstacle but introduces the Robin condition with the wrong sign for a direct maximum principle. The passage ε→0\varepsilon\to0ε→0 needs Wp2,1W^{2,1}_pWp2,1​ and Hölder estimates uniform in ε\varepsilonε, which are not in Mathlib.

Formalization scope

  • Functions of (x,t)(x,t)(x,t) are ℝ → ℝ → ℝ; ttt is time to maturity. Partial derivatives are explicit functions vx,vxx,vtv_x, v_{xx}, v_tvx​,vxx​,vt​ tied to vvv by HasDerivAt on sections at interior points (x>0x>0x>0, 0<t<T0<t<T0<t<T) and continuous on Q‾T∖{(0,0)}\overline{\mathcal Q}_T\setminus\{(0,0)\}Q​T​∖{(0,0)}; boundary values are these continuous extensions, and (3.1) holds at t=Tt=Tt=T through them.
  • The claim law is a probability measure on R\mathbb RR with no mass on (−∞,0)(-\infty,0)(−∞,0), and F(z)=μ((−∞,z])F(z)=\mu((-\infty,z])F(z)=μ((−∞,z]); no density is assumed. H\mathcal HH consists of measurable HHH with 0≤H(z)≤z0\le H(z)\le z0≤H(z)≤z for z≥0z\ge0z≥0, and L\mathcal LL is defined by the supremum (3.2), not by (A.10).
  • 0<γ<μ10<\gamma<\mu_10<γ<μ1​ is a standing hypothesis (the paper imposes it from Section 4; without it fff has no positive root and (3.9) is undefined).
  • (3.7) is read as monotonicity of x↦vxx(x,t)x\mapsto v_{xx}(x,t)x↦vxx​(x,t), (3.8) as monotonicity of t↦vx(x,t)t\mapsto v_x(x,t)t↦vx​(x,t), (3.9) for every positive root of fff.
  • Uniqueness is equality on Q‾T\overline{\mathcal Q}_TQ​T​ within the class of solutions with (3.4)–(3.9). Uniqueness among all classical solutions is not posed: the paper's argument on an unbounded domain uses no growth condition.
  • Penalty data are taken at one fixed ε\varepsilonε; the limit ε→0\varepsilon\to0ε→0 of βε\beta_\varepsilonβε​ is not part of the data. "Sufficiently small ε\varepsilonε" is an ε0>0\varepsilon_0>0ε0​>0 depending on the model and LLL.
  • A formalization in which L\mathcal LL is given by its closed form, the derivatives are deriv evaluated at boundary points, or uniqueness is stated as equality of functions on all of R2\mathbb R^2R2, would trivialize or falsify the goal; the statements avoid all three.

Needed infrastructure: interval integrals of monotone functions and their one-sided derivatives, maximum and comparison principles for linear and quasilinear parabolic equations in one space dimension, existence for quasilinear parabolic problems (Leray–Schauder with Schauder estimates), and compactness in Hölder and Sobolev spaces. The parabolic comparison principle and the penalization scheme are reusable well beyond this mission. Proofs of individual milestones, in particular the elementary ones (A.7)–(A.13) and Lemma A.1, are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • C. Guan, Z. Q. Xu, R. Zhou, Dynamic optimal reinsurance and dividend-payout in finite time horizon, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023; preprint arXiv:2008.00391v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.00391
  • B. de Finetti, Su un'impostazione alternativa della teoria collettiva del rischio, Transactions of the XVth International Congress of Actuaries, 1957.
  • G. M. Lieberman, Second Order Parabolic Differential Equations, World Scientific, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1142/3302
  • L. C. Evans, Partial Differential Equations, 2nd ed., American Mathematical Society, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1090/gsm/019
13 thms2 active usersReviewed
Actuarial ScienceOperations ResearchPartial Differential Equations+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Optimal Reinsurance and Dividend Payout in Finite Time Horizon II: For Discrete Claims the Reinsurance Boundaries Are C¹, Start at 0 and Are Spaced Less Than (z_j − z_{j−1})/2c ApartResearch Paper

Motivation

An insurance company pays out dividends to its shareholders and buys reinsurance to limit its exposure to large claims. Both decisions are dynamic: the right amount to cede and the right moment to pay depend on the current surplus and on the time left until a fixed maturity TTT. Guan, Xu and Zhou (2023) solve the combined problem for a diffusion-approximated surplus with a general claim distribution, a general reinsurance contract (any retained-loss function 0≤H(z)≤z0\le H(z)\le z0≤H(z)≤z), and a finite horizon. Their main structural output is a description of the optimal strategy by free boundaries in the surplus–time plane: a dividend barrier d(τ)d(\tau)d(τ), and for each claim size zzz a reinsurance barrier K(z,τ)K(z,\tau)K(z,τ).

A companion mission formalizes the existence and uniqueness of the classical solution of the HJB variational inequality (Theorem 3.1 of the paper). This mission takes that solution as given and formalizes the shape of the boundaries (Section 4 of the paper), culminating in the description of the reinsurance boundaries for discrete claim distributions (Theorem 4.5).

Setting

Claims are i.i.d. copies of a nonnegative random variable Z1Z_1Z1​ with distribution function FFF, satisfying the tail condition that z3(1−F(z))z^3(1-F(z))z3(1−F(z)) is bounded on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). Write μ1=∫0∞z dF(z)\mu_1=\int_0^\infty z\,dF(z)μ1​=∫0∞​zdF(z) and μ2=∫0∞z2 dF(z)\mu_2=\int_0^\infty z^2\,dF(z)μ2​=∫0∞​z2dF(z). The reinsurance loading is γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, the discount rate c>0c>0c>0, the horizon T>0T>0T>0, and throughout 0<γ<μ10<\gamma<\mu_10<γ<μ1​ (for γ≥μ1\gamma\ge\mu_1γ≥μ1​ the problem is trivial).

The value function v(x,τ)v(x,\tau)v(x,τ), with x≥0x\ge0x≥0 the surplus and τ∈[0,T]\tau\in[0,T]τ∈[0,T] the time to maturity, is the solution of the variational inequality

min⁡{vτ−Lv, vx−1}=0 on (0,∞)×(0,T],v(0,τ)=0,v(x,0)=x,\min\{v_\tau-\mathcal Lv,\ v_x-1\}=0\ \text{on }(0,\infty)\times(0,T],\qquad v(0,\tau)=0,\qquad v(x,0)=x,min{vτ​−Lv, vx​−1}=0 on (0,∞)×(0,T],v(0,τ)=0,v(x,0)=x,

where

Lv=sup⁡0≤H(z)≤z(vxx2∫0∞H2 dF+vx∫0∞H dF)−γvx−cv.\mathcal Lv=\sup_{0\le H(z)\le z}\Bigl(\frac{v_{xx}}{2}\int_0^\infty H^2\,dF+v_x\int_0^\infty H\,dF\Bigr)-\gamma v_x-cv .Lv=0≤H(z)≤zsup​(2vxx​​∫0∞​H2dF+vx​∫0∞​HdF)−γvx​−cv.

It is the unique function of class C2,1([0,∞)×[0,T]∖{(0,0)})∩C([0,∞)×[0,T])C^{2,1}([0,\infty)\times[0,T]\setminus\{(0,0)\})\cap C([0,\infty)\times[0,T])C2,1([0,∞)×[0,T]∖{(0,0)})∩C([0,∞)×[0,T]) that solves this inequality and satisfies vx≥1v_x\ge1vx​≥1, vτ≥0v_\tau\ge0vτ​≥0, vxx≤0v_{xx}\le0vxx​≤0, vxxv_{xx}vxx​ nondecreasing in xxx, vxv_xvx​ nondecreasing in τ\tauτ, and λvx+vxx≥0\lambda v_x+v_{xx}\ge0λvx​+vxx​≥0. Here λ\lambdaλ is the unique positive root of

f(y)=−yA(y)+B(y)−γ,A(y)=∫01/yz(1−F(z)) dz,B(y)=∫01/y(1−F(z)) dz(y>0).f(y)=-yA(y)+B(y)-\gamma,\qquad A(y)=\int_0^{1/y}z(1-F(z))\,dz,\quad B(y)=\int_0^{1/y}(1-F(z))\,dz\quad(y>0).f(y)=−yA(y)+B(y)−γ,A(y)=∫01/y​z(1−F(z))dz,B(y)=∫01/y​(1−F(z))dz(y>0).

The no-dividend region is ND={(x,τ):vx(x,τ)>1}\mathcal{ND}=\{(x,\tau): v_x(x,\tau)>1\}ND={(x,τ):vx​(x,τ)>1}, and the dividend boundary is

d(τ)=inf⁡{x≥0:vx(x,τ)=1}.d(\tau)=\inf\{x\ge0: v_x(x,\tau)=1\}.d(τ)=inf{x≥0:vx​(x,τ)=1}.

For a claim of size zzz the optimal retained loss is −vx/vxx-v_x/v_{xx}−vx​/vxx​ if −vxx/vx>1/z-v_{xx}/v_x>1/z−vxx​/vx​>1/z and zzz otherwise, and the ceded loss I^(z,x,τ)\hat I(z,x,\tau)I^(z,x,τ) is the difference from zzz. The reinsurance boundary is K(z,τ)=sup⁡{x>0:−vxx/vx(x,τ)>1/z}K(z,\tau)=\sup\{x>0: -v_{xx}/v_x(x,\tau)>1/z\}K(z,τ)=sup{x>0:−vxx​/vx​(x,τ)>1/z}. For a discrete law P(Z1=zj)=pj>0\mathbb P(Z_1=z_j)=p_j>0P(Z1​=zj​)=pj​>0 with 0<z1<⋯<zN0<z_1<\dots<z_N0<z1​<⋯<zN​, the jjj-th reinsurance boundary is

Kj(τ)=inf⁡{x>0:−vxxvx(x,τ)≤1zj}.K_j(\tau)=\inf\Bigl\{x>0: -\frac{v_{xx}}{v_x}(x,\tau)\le\frac1{z_j}\Bigr\}.Kj​(τ)=inf{x>0:−vx​vxx​​(x,τ)≤zj​1​}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.5

For a discrete claim law, every KjK_jKj​ is continuously differentiable on (0,T](0,T](0,T], and for every τ∈(0,T]\tau\in(0,T]τ∈(0,T]:

Kj(τ)=0  if zj≤1λ;0<Ki0(τ)<zi0−1/λ2c;0<Kj(τ)−Kj−1(τ)<zj−zj−12c  (j>i0);lim⁡τ→0+Kj(τ)=0,K_j(\tau)=0\ \text{ if }z_j\le\tfrac1\lambda;\qquad 0<K_{i_0}(\tau)<\frac{z_{i_0}-1/\lambda}{2c};\qquad 0<K_j(\tau)-K_{j-1}(\tau)<\frac{z_j-z_{j-1}}{2c}\ \ (j>i_0);\qquad \lim_{\tau\to0+}K_j(\tau)=0,Kj​(τ)=0  if zj​≤λ1​;0<Ki0​​(τ)<2czi0​​−1/λ​;0<Kj​(τ)−Kj−1​(τ)<2czj​−zj−1​​  (j>i0​);τ→0+lim​Kj​(τ)=0,

where zi0z_{i_0}zi0​​ is the smallest atom above 1/λ1/\lambda1/λ.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 4.2: ddd is continuous and nondecreasing on (0,T](0,T](0,T], and d(0+)=0<d(τ)≤(μ1+cγ)(cμ2+γ2)/(γc3)d(0+)=0<d(\tau)\le\sqrt{(\mu_1+c\gamma)(c\mu_2+\gamma^2)/(\gamma c^3)}d(0+)=0<d(τ)≤(μ1​+cγ)(cμ2​+γ2)/(γc3)​.
  2. Lemma 4.3: vx,vτ∈C2,1v_x,v_\tau\in C^{2,1}vx​,vτ​∈C2,1 in ND\mathcal{ND}ND, vxx<0v_{xx}<0vxx​<0 in ND\mathcal{ND}ND, and I^(z,x,τ)=max⁡{z+vx/vxx,0}\hat I(z,x,\tau)=\max\{z+v_x/v_{xx},0\}I^(z,x,τ)=max{z+vx​/vxx​,0} there.
  3. Lemma 4.4: −vx/vxx=1/λ-v_x/v_{xx}=1/\lambda−vx​/vxx​=1/λ at x=0x=0x=0, −vx/vxx>1/λ-v_x/v_{xx}>1/\lambda−vx​/vxx​>1/λ in ND\mathcal{ND}ND, and ∂x(−vx/vxx)≥2c\partial_x(-v_x/v_{xx})\ge2c∂x​(−vx​/vxx​)≥2c in ND\mathcal{ND}ND.
  4. Section 4.2, p. 18: for z>1/λz>1/\lambdaz>1/λ, K(z,τ)≤z/(2c)−1/(2cλ)K(z,\tau)\le z/(2c)-1/(2c\lambda)K(z,τ)≤z/(2c)−1/(2cλ).

Significance

The theorems turn an existence result for a fully nonlinear variational inequality into a usable description of the optimal policy. Claims below 1/λ1/\lambda1/λ are never reinsured; a claim of size z>1/λz>1/\lambdaz>1/λ is partly ceded only when the surplus lies below a barrier that starts at the origin at maturity, stays below z/(2c)−1/(2cλ)z/(2c)-1/(2c\lambda)z/(2c)−1/(2cλ), and stays below the dividend barrier, which is itself bounded by an explicit constant independent of the horizon. For discrete claims the barriers are smooth, ordered, and separated by gaps of at most (zj−zj−1)/(2c)(z_j-z_{j-1})/(2c)(zj​−zj−1​)/(2c). The quantity −vx/vxx-v_x/v_{xx}−vx​/vxx​, the optimal retention level, is shown to grow at rate at least 2c2c2c in the surplus; this single monotonicity estimate is what makes the regions of the surplus–time plane ordered and nonoverlapping.

The results are proved in the paper; none of them, nor Theorem 3.1 on which they rest, has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them requires the parabolic regularity statements of Lemma 4.3 (the paper's proof invokes interior Schauder estimates) and the implicit function theorem in a form that gives one-variable C1C^1C1 dependence of a level set. Statements of the boundary properties in this mission are posed for any function with the properties of Theorem 3.1, so they can be proved independently of the companion mission.

Difficulty

Most of the elementary statements reduce to a sign or a monotonicity property of −vx/vxx-v_x/v_{xx}−vx​/vxx​, and the first idea is to differentiate the equation. That requires vxxxv_{xxx}vxxx​ and vxτv_{x\tau}vxτ​ to exist as classical derivatives in ND\mathcal{ND}ND, which the class of Theorem 3.1 does not provide: it gives only two xxx-derivatives and one τ\tauτ-derivative, and a weak monotonicity of vxxv_{xx}vxx​. Lemma 4.3's interior regularity is therefore not a formality but the gateway to Lemma 4.4, and its proof uses Hölder estimates for linear parabolic equations, which are not available in Mathlib.

The positivity d(τ)>0d(\tau)>0d(τ)>0 and the limit d(0+)=0d(0+)=0d(0+)=0 are statements about the free boundary itself, not about vvv at fixed points, and need the uniqueness part of Theorem 3.1 or a comparison argument. The strict inequalities in (4.13)–(4.14) need more than the bound ∂x(−vx/vxx)≥2c\partial_x(-v_x/v_{xx})\ge2c∂x​(−vx​/vxx​)≥2c as stated.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace DynReinsDiv.Barriers. Conventions:

  • The claim law is a probability measure μ on R\mathbb RR with μ((−∞,0))=0\mu((-\infty,0))=0μ((−∞,0))=0; F(z)=μ((−∞,z])F(z)=\mu((-\infty,z])F(z)=μ((−∞,z]); no density is assumed. μ1,μ2\mu_1,\mu_2μ1​,μ2​ are Bochner integrals, finite under the tail condition. The standing hypothesis 0<γ<μ10<\gamma<\mu_10<γ<μ1​ is a field of the model.
  • v:R→R→Rv:\mathbb R\to\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rv:R→R→R takes (x,τ)(x,\tau)(x,τ), and the derivatives vx vxx vt are explicit functions: they are HasDerivAt derivatives of the sections at interior points (x>0x>0x>0, 0<τ<T0<\tau<T0<τ<T) and continuous on [0,∞)×[0,T]∖{(0,0)}[0,\infty)\times[0,T]\setminus\{(0,0)\}[0,∞)×[0,T]∖{(0,0)}; boundary values (at x=0x=0x=0 and τ=T\tau=Tτ=T) are the continuous extensions. "vxxx≥0v_{xxx}\ge0vxxx​≥0 in the weak sense" is monotonicity of vxxv_{xx}vxx​ in xxx, "vxτ≥0v_{x\tau}\ge0vxτ​≥0" is monotonicity of vxv_xvx​ in τ\tauτ.
  • The only hypothesis on vvv is the conclusion of Theorem 3.1, bundled as IsTheorem31Solution. The milestone conclusions (vxx<0v_{xx}<0vxx​<0, the bounds on −vx/vxx-v_x/v_{xx}−vx​/vxx​, d(0+)=0d(0+)=0d(0+)=0) are never hypotheses; with them as hypotheses Theorem 4.5 would be a short mean-value argument.
  • L\mathcal LL is the supremum over measurable retained-loss functions, not its closed form.
  • Infima and suprema of empty sets are 000 in Lean. Theorem 4.2 concludes that {x≥0:vx=1}\{x\ge0: v_x=1\}{x≥0:vx​=1} is nonempty; K(z,τ)K(z,\tau)K(z,τ) uses 000 for the empty set, as the paper does.
  • Atoms are indexed by Fin N from 000. The paper's index i0i_0i0​ is replaced by conditions on zjz_jzj​ and zj−1z_{j-1}zj−1​, which also cover laws whose atoms all lie below 1/λ1/\lambda1/λ.
  • Not formalized: d(∞)d(\infty)d(∞) (the horizon is finite; d(τ)≤x2d(\tau)\le x_2d(τ)≤x2​ for every τ≤T\tau\le Tτ≤T and every TTT carries the same content), the C∞C^\inftyC∞ regularity of ddd for bounded claims (only sketched in the paper), and the Verification Theorem 3.2.

Contributions welcome: the interior regularity of Lemma 4.3, the monotonicity estimate (4.10), and the derivation of Theorem 4.5 from the milestones.

Selected references

  • Chonghu Guan, Zuo Quan Xu, Rui Zhou, Dynamic optimal reinsurance and dividend-payout in a finite time horizon, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023; read as arXiv:2008.00391v3 (2022). https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.00391
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ProbabilityQuantum InformationStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Direct Fidelity Estimation from Few Pauli Measurements 2: A Unit Vector Nearly Orthogonal to 2^{cd} Given States With Every Non-Identity Pauli Expectation ≤ √(72π³)·√(log d)/√dResearch Paper

Motivation

Quantum state tomography reconstructs an unknown ddd-dimensional quantum state from measurements on many copies of it. For nnn qubits, d=2nd = 2^nd=2n, so the number of copies a tomography procedure needs grows exponentially in nnn, and lower bounds on that number decide how far experiments can scale. In many experiments the only measurements available are Pauli measurements: each qubit is measured in the eigenbasis of one of σx,σy,σz\sigma_x, \sigma_y, \sigma_zσx​,σy​,σz​.

Flammia and Liu, Direct fidelity estimation from few Pauli measurements (arXiv:1104.4695, Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 230501, 2011), show that the fidelity of an experimental state with a target pure state can be estimated with far fewer copies than full tomography needs. To make the comparison meaningful they also prove that full tomography of a pure state with Pauli measurements requires Ω(d2/log⁡d)\Omega(d^2/\log d)Ω(d2/logd) copies. That lower bound has two steps. The first builds a large family of nearly orthogonal pure states whose Pauli expectation values are all small, so that Pauli measurements extract little information about which state is present. Its engine is Lemma 1 of the paper (p. 7), the subject of this mission. The second step, an information-theoretic argument over a noisy classical channel, is not in scope.

Setting

Fix n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 qubits and put d=2nd = 2^nd=2n. States are unit vectors ψ∈Cd\psi \in \mathbb C^dψ∈Cd, ∥ψ∥2=1\|\psi\|_2 = 1∥ψ∥2​=1; the overlap ⟨φ∣ψ⟩=∑xφx‾ψx\langle\varphi|\psi\rangle = \sum_x \overline{\varphi_x}\psi_x⟨φ∣ψ⟩=∑x​φx​​ψx​ is conjugate-linear in φ\varphiφ.

The single-qubit Pauli matrices are III, σx\sigma_xσx​, σy\sigma_yσy​, σz\sigma_zσz​. A Pauli label k∈{0,1,2,3}nk \in \{0,1,2,3\}^nk∈{0,1,2,3}n determines the nnn-qubit Pauli operator Wk=σk1⊗⋯⊗σknW_k = \sigma_{k_1}\otimes\cdots\otimes\sigma_{k_n}Wk​=σk1​​⊗⋯⊗σkn​​ (with σ0=I\sigma_0 = Iσ0​=I). There are d2d^2d2 labels; the all-zero label gives Wk=IW_k = IWk​=I. Every WkW_kWk​ is Hermitian and unitary, so the Pauli expectation ⟨ψ∣Wk∣ψ⟩\langle\psi|W_k|\psi\rangle⟨ψ∣Wk​∣ψ⟩ is a real number in [−1,1][-1, 1][−1,1].

A Haar-random state is a vector ψ\psiψ drawn from the uniform (rotation-invariant) probability measure on the unit sphere of Cd\mathbb C^dCd, a real sphere of dimension 2d−12d - 12d−1. The constants of the lemma are

ε=9π3(log⁡2) c,τ=72π3,C1=29π3,\varepsilon = \sqrt{9\pi^3(\log 2)\,c},\qquad \tau = \sqrt{72\pi^3},\qquad C_1 = \frac{2}{9\pi^3},ε=9π3(log2)c​,τ=72π3​,C1​=9π32​,

with log⁡\loglog the natural logarithm and c>0c > 0c>0 a parameter.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 1

Let φ1,…,φs∈Cd\varphi_1, \dots, \varphi_s \in \mathbb C^dφ1​,…,φs​∈Cd be states with s≤2cds \le 2^{cd}s≤2cd. Then there is a state ψ∈Cd\psi \in \mathbb C^dψ∈Cd with

∣⟨φi∣ψ⟩∣≤ε(1≤i≤s),∣⟨ψ∣Wk∣ψ⟩∣≤τlog⁡d/d(Wk≠I).|\langle\varphi_i|\psi\rangle| \le \varepsilon \quad (1 \le i \le s), \qquad |\langle\psi|W_k|\psi\rangle| \le \tau\sqrt{\log d}/\sqrt d \quad (W_k \ne I).∣⟨φi​∣ψ⟩∣≤ε(1≤i≤s),∣⟨ψ∣Wk​∣ψ⟩∣≤τlogd​/d​(Wk​=I).

These are (31) and (32) of the paper. The goal is an existence statement with no measure in it.

Milestones (all p. 7)

  1. (33): for a state φ\varphiφ, ∣⟨φ∣ψ⟩−⟨φ∣ψ′⟩∣≤∥ψ−ψ′∥2|\langle\varphi|\psi\rangle - \langle\varphi|\psi'\rangle| \le \|\psi - \psi'\|_2∣⟨φ∣ψ⟩−⟨φ∣ψ′⟩∣≤∥ψ−ψ′∥2​.
  2. E⟨φ∣ψ⟩=0\mathbb E\langle\varphi|\psi\rangle = 0E⟨φ∣ψ⟩=0 for Haar-random ψ\psiψ.
  3. (34): Pr⁡[∣⟨φ∣ψ⟩∣≥ε]≤4exp⁡(−C1dε2/η2)\Pr[|\langle\varphi|\psi\rangle| \ge \varepsilon] \le 4\exp(-C_1 d\varepsilon^2/\eta^2)Pr[∣⟨φ∣ψ⟩∣≥ε]≤4exp(−C1​dε2/η2) with η=1\eta = 1η=1.
  4. (35): Pr⁡[(31) fails for some i]≤4exp⁡(cdlog⁡2−C1dε2)=4⋅2−cd\Pr[(31)\text{ fails for some } i] \le 4\exp(cd\log 2 - C_1 d\varepsilon^2) = 4\cdot 2^{-cd}Pr[(31) fails for some i]≤4exp(cdlog2−C1​dε2)=4⋅2−cd.
  5. (36): on unit vectors, ∣⟨ψ∣Wk∣ψ⟩−⟨ψ′∣Wk∣ψ′⟩∣≤2∥ψ−ψ′∥2|\langle\psi|W_k|\psi\rangle - \langle\psi'|W_k|\psi'\rangle| \le 2\|\psi - \psi'\|_2∣⟨ψ∣Wk​∣ψ⟩−⟨ψ′∣Wk​∣ψ′⟩∣≤2∥ψ−ψ′∥2​.
  6. E⟨ψ∣Wk∣ψ⟩=0\mathbb E\langle\psi|W_k|\psi\rangle = 0E⟨ψ∣Wk​∣ψ⟩=0 for Wk≠IW_k \ne IWk​=I.
  7. (37): Pr⁡[∣⟨ψ∣Wk∣ψ⟩∣≥τlog⁡d/d]≤4exp⁡(−C1τ2(log⁡d)/η2)\Pr[|\langle\psi|W_k|\psi\rangle| \ge \tau\sqrt{\log d}/\sqrt d] \le 4\exp(-C_1\tau^2(\log d)/\eta^2)Pr[∣⟨ψ∣Wk​∣ψ⟩∣≥τlogd​/d​]≤4exp(−C1​τ2(logd)/η2) with η=2\eta = 2η=2.
  8. (38): Pr⁡[(32) fails for some k]≤4exp⁡(2log⁡d−C1τ2(log⁡d)/4)=4/d2\Pr[(32)\text{ fails for some } k] \le 4\exp(2\log d - C_1\tau^2(\log d)/4) = 4/d^2Pr[(32) fails for some k]≤4exp(2logd−C1​τ2(logd)/4)=4/d2.

Every constant is the paper's; none is replaced by an unspecified absolute constant.

Significance

The result. Lemma 1 is a packing statement: applied repeatedly, it yields 2Ω(d)2^{\Omega(d)}2Ω(d) states that are pairwise almost orthogonal and whose non-identity Pauli expectations are all O(log⁡d/d)O(\sqrt{\log d/d})O(logd/d​). Such states are hard to tell apart with Pauli measurements, since each measurement outcome is nearly unbiased. The paper converts this into the Ω(d2/log⁡d)\Omega(d^2/\log d)Ω(d2/logd) copy lower bound for full tomography with Pauli measurements (pp. 3, 7–8). Since direct fidelity estimation of an arbitrary pure state uses O(d)O(d)O(d) copies (for fixed accuracy and failure probability), the lower bound is what shows that the scheme beats tomography followed by a fidelity computation by a factor of about ddd.

Formalizing it. The lemma and its proof are published, but none of it is machine-checked: Mathlib has no Pauli operators, no concentration of measure on spheres with explicit constants, and no Levy lemma. A formal proof needs a concentration inequality on the complex unit sphere with the explicit constant C1=2/(9π3)C_1 = 2/(9\pi^3)C1​=2/(9π3) (or any sharper one), the vanishing of the means by symmetry, and the union bounds. Each milestone is a reusable fact about Haar-random states.

Difficulty

The two union bounds (35) and (38) and the Lipschitz estimates (33) and (36) are elementary. The central difficulty is the tail bounds (34) and (37). The paper obtains them from Levy's lemma, which it cites (P. Lévy, 1951) and does not prove; Levy's lemma rests on the isoperimetric inequality on the sphere, which Mathlib does not have, and (37) concerns a quadratic form of ψ\psiψ rather than a linear one. Both tail bounds also need a working theory of the uniform measure on the complex unit sphere (rotation invariance, the distribution of a coordinate), little of which exists in Lean today.

A second difficulty is that the printed proof does not cover every parameter. The union bound produces a good ψ\psiψ only when 4⋅2−cd+4/d2<14\cdot 2^{-cd} + 4/d^2 < 14⋅2−cd+4/d2<1. For small ddd, or small ccc with few given states, the goal is still true, but a complete proof must handle those cases separately; they are not in the paper.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. Basis labels are Q n = Fin n → Fin 2, Pauli labels P n = Fin n → Fin 4, states live in EuclideanSpace ℂ (Q n), and WkW_kWk​ is the entrywise product of single-qubit Pauli matrices (the Kronecker product). ddd is the real number 2n2^n2n; log⁡\loglog is Real.log; ⟨φ|ψ⟩ is Mathlib's inner ℂ φ ψ.
  • Measure. The uniform measure on the sphere is Mathlib's Measure.toSphere of an additive Haar measure on Cd\mathbb C^dCd (as a real vector space), normalised to total mass one. The paper's "Haar-random vector in Sd−1S^{d-1}Sd−1" is read as this measure on the unit sphere of Cd\mathbb C^dCd.
  • Added hypotheses, all disclosed. The goal assumes n≥1n \ge 1n≥1: at n=0n = 0n=0 (d=1d = 1d=1) and small ccc the lemma is false, since every unit vector of C1\mathbb C^1C1 has overlap 111 with φ1\varphi_1φ1​. It assumes c>0c > 0c>0, under which ε\varepsilonε is defined. "States" means unit vectors, for the given φi\varphi_iφi​ and for the produced ψ\psiψ. The mean-zero statement for Pauli operators assumes Wk≠IW_k \ne IWk​=I (for Wk=IW_k = IWk​=I the mean is 111); the paper's "for each kkk" refers to the non-identity labels of (32). "Wk≠IW_k \ne IWk​=I" is formalized as "the label kkk is not all zeros".
  • Non-trivialization. The produced ψ\psiψ must be a unit vector, so ψ=0\psi = 0ψ=0 does not satisfy the goal; the given states are unit vectors, so (31) is not trivially false; and the mean-zero milestones assert integrability together with the value of the integral, so they cannot hold merely because a non-integrable integral is 000.
  • Infrastructure needed. Facts about nnn-qubit Pauli operators (Hermitian, unitary, traceless for Wk≠IW_k \ne IWk​=I); rotation invariance of the normalised sphere measure; a concentration inequality for Lipschitz functions on the complex unit sphere with an explicit constant. The concentration inequality and the sphere-measure facts are reusable well beyond this mission and are welcome as separate contributions.

Selected references

  • S. T. Flammia and Y.-K. Liu, Direct fidelity estimation from few Pauli measurements, Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 230501 (2011); arXiv:1104.4695v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1104.4695
  • P. Lévy, Problèmes concrets d'analyse fonctionnelle, Gauthier-Villars, Paris, 1951 (reference [10] of the paper; no stable online link).
  • M. Ledoux, The Concentration of Measure Phenomenon, Mathematical Surveys and Monographs 89, AMS, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1090/surv/089
  • P. Hayden, D. W. Leung and A. Winter, Aspects of generic entanglement, Comm. Math. Phys. 265, 95–117 (2006); arXiv:quant-ph/0407049. https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0407049
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AnalysisControl TheoryEconomics+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost IV: Low Switching Cost, Control-Band Value Functions Meet the Optimality ConditionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many service relationships are dynamic contracts in which the principal cannot observe the agent's effort, only its noisy consequences. Cao, Sun and Tian (Management Science, 2024) study such a relationship when the principal can suspend the agent and must pay a fixed switching cost to restart work. Suspension is a punishment that does not end the relationship, and it is used in practice for platform workers, contractors and franchisees. The paper shows that, when the switching cost and the revenue are low, the optimal contract has a control-band structure: the agent's promised utility is kept inside an interval, the agent is suspended when it falls below the lower end, and work resumes at the upper end. Two-threshold policies of this kind are standard in optimal switching problems with switching costs (Duckworth and Zervos, 2001; Vath and Pham, 2007), whose verification arguments the paper compares with its own.

This mission is the fourth of a series formalizing the analytic core of the paper. It covers the low-switching-cost region (Area III of the paper's Figure 2).

Setting

A Poisson process of arrivals brings revenue RRR each. The base arrival rate is μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0; if the agent works, at cost b>0b>0b>0 per unit of time, the rate becomes μ>μ‾\mu>\underline\muμ>μ​. Write Δμ=μ−μ‾\Delta\mu=\mu-\underline\muΔμ=μ−μ​. The principal's cost rate while the agent works is c≥bc\ge bc≥b, restarting work costs K>0K>0K>0, and the principal and the agent discount at rates 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ. Assumption 1 is RΔμ>cR\Delta\mu>cRΔμ>c. The constants are

β=bΔμ,wˉ=βμρ,v‾=μ‾Rr,Vˉ=Rμ−c−(ρ−r)wˉr,Vˉ(w)=Rμ−c−(ρ−r)wr.\beta=\frac b{\Delta\mu},\quad \bar w=\frac{\beta\mu}\rho,\quad \underline v=\frac{\underline\mu R}r,\quad \bar V=\frac{R\mu-c-(\rho-r)\bar w}r,\quad \bar V(w)=\frac{R\mu-c-(\rho-r)w}r .β=Δμb​,wˉ=ρβμ​,v​=rμ​R​,Vˉ=rRμ−c−(ρ−r)wˉ​,Vˉ(w)=rRμ−c−(ρ−r)w​.

The promised utility w≥0w\ge0w≥0 is the state. For a function fff on R+\mathbb R_+R+​ with left derivative f′f'f′, the paper's operators are

(AIf)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w,(\mathcal A_If)(w)=(\mu+r)f(w)-\mu f(w+\beta)+\rho(\bar w-w)f'(w)-(\mu R-c)+(\rho-r)w,(AI​f)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w, (A∅f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ‾,(\mathcal A_\emptyset f)(w)=rf(w)-\rho wf'(w)+(\rho-r)w-R\underline\mu,(A∅​f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ​,

for the working state III and the suspended state ∅\emptyset∅. A pair (VI,V∅)(V_I,V_\emptyset)(VI​,V∅​) satisfies the optimality condition (20)–(22) if AIVI≥0\mathcal A_IV_I\ge0AI​VI​≥0, A∅V∅≥0\mathcal A_\emptyset V_\emptyset\ge0A∅​V∅​≥0, 0≤VI−V∅≤K0\le V_I-V_\emptyset\le K0≤VI​−V∅​≤K and VI(0),V∅(0)≥v‾V_I(0),V_\emptyset(0)\ge\underline vVI​(0),V∅​(0)≥v​.

Two families of functions enter. In the suspended state, Vc(w)=v‾+w+c wr/ρV_c(w)=\underline v+w+c\,w^{r/\rho}Vc​(w)=v​+w+cwr/ρ (24) solves A∅V=0\mathcal A_\emptyset V=0A∅​V=0 with V(0)=v‾V(0)=\underline vV(0)=v​. In the working state, for w~<wˉ\tilde w<\bar ww~<wˉ, Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ is the C1C^1C1 solution of the delay differential equation (25), in which V(w)V(w)V(w) is coupled to the look-ahead value V((w+β)∧w~)V((w+\beta)\wedge\tilde w)V((w+β)∧w~), with Vw~=Vˉ(w~)V_{\tilde w}=\bar V(\tilde w)Vw~​=Vˉ(w~) beyond w~\tilde ww~; Vw~\mathcal V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ is its concavification (Lemma 2), linear below a threshold wˇ(w~)\check w(\tilde w)wˇ(w~). Lemma 3's w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^ is the unique w~\tilde ww~ with Vw~(0)=v‾\mathcal V_{\tilde w}(0)=\underline vVw~​(0)=v​ under Condition 1.

The parameter regions are Condition 1 (μ≥ρ−r\mu\ge\rho-rμ≥ρ−r or R<R^R<\hat RR<R^), Condition 2 (its negation) and Condition 3: Condition 1 and K<Kˉ1K<\bar K_1K<Kˉ1​, or Condition 2 and K<K‾K<\underline KK<K​, with R^\hat RR^ (28), Kˉ1\bar K_1Kˉ1​ (K1) and K‾\underline KK​ (33) explicit thresholds.

The paper uses three different hats: Definition 1's payment threshold w^\hat ww^, Lemma 3's upright w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^, and Proposition 6's bold w^\hat{\mathbf w}w^, the upper end of the control band.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 7, first claim

Under Condition 3 there are parameters (c,w^,ϑˉ,ϑ‾)(\mathsf c,\hat{\mathbf w},\bar\vartheta,\underline\vartheta)(c,w^,ϑˉ,ϑ​) satisfying Proposition 6 such that

VI(w)={Vc(w),w<ϑ‾Vw^(w),w≥ϑ‾,V∅(w)={Vc(w),w<ϑˉVw^(w)−K,w≥ϑˉ(46)V_I(w)=\begin{cases}V_{\mathsf c}(w),&w<\underline\vartheta\\ \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}(w),&w\ge\underline\vartheta\end{cases},\qquad V_\emptyset(w)=\begin{cases}V_{\mathsf c}(w),&w<\bar\vartheta\\ \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}(w)-K,&w\ge\bar\vartheta\end{cases}\qquad(46)VI​(w)={Vc​(w),Vw^​(w),​w<ϑ​w≥ϑ​​,V∅​(w)={Vc​(w),Vw^​(w)−K,​w<ϑˉw≥ϑˉ​(46)

satisfy (20)–(22).

Proposition 6

Under Condition 3 there is (c,w^,ϑˉ,ϑ‾)(\mathsf c,\hat{\mathbf w},\bar\vartheta,\underline\vartheta)(c,w^,ϑˉ,ϑ​) with c>0\mathsf c>0c>0, ϑ‾<ϑˉ<w^\underline\vartheta<\bar\vartheta<\hat{\mathbf w}ϑ​<ϑˉ<w^ and value matching and smooth pasting at both thresholds:

Vw^(ϑ‾)=Vc(ϑ‾),Vw^′(ϑ‾)=Vc′(ϑ‾),Vw^(ϑˉ)=Vc(ϑˉ)+K,Vw^′(ϑˉ)=Vc′(ϑˉ)>1.\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}(\underline\vartheta)=V_{\mathsf c}(\underline\vartheta),\quad \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}'(\underline\vartheta)=V_{\mathsf c}'(\underline\vartheta),\quad \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}(\bar\vartheta)=V_{\mathsf c}(\bar\vartheta)+K,\quad \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}'(\bar\vartheta)=V_{\mathsf c}'(\bar\vartheta)>1 .Vw^​(ϑ​)=Vc​(ϑ​),Vw^′​(ϑ​)=Vc′​(ϑ​),Vw^​(ϑˉ)=Vc​(ϑˉ)+K,Vw^′​(ϑˉ)=Vc′​(ϑˉ)>1.

Milestones

Lemma EC.4 (the first step of the EC.3.9 construction), Proposition 6, and the two hardest parts of (20) at the constructed tuple: Lemma EC.12 (A∅V∅≥0\mathcal A_\emptyset V_\emptyset\ge0A∅​V∅​≥0 on [ϑˉ,w^)[\bar\vartheta,\hat{\mathbf w})[ϑˉ,w^)) and Lemma EC.13 (AIVI≥0\mathcal A_IV_I\ge0AI​VI​≥0 below ϑ‾\underline\varthetaϑ​). The other steps of the construction are posed as further statements of the mission without milestone status: Lemma EC.7 (the root of ψ=K\psi=Kψ=K under Condition 1), Lemma EC.8 and Lemma EC.11 (the Condition 2 counterparts of EC.4 and EC.7).

Significance

Proposition 7 is the analytic certificate behind the paper's Theorem 5: combined with the verification Theorem 1, it shows that the control-band contract is optimal in the low-cost region, and that the principal's value is V∅(w)−wV_\emptyset(w)-wV∅​(w)−w. Without it the third case of the paper's main Theorem 2 is unproved. The construction of Proposition 6 also gives a computable description of the band, which the paper uses for its numerical illustrations.

The results are proved in the paper's e-companion; none of them has a machine-checked proof. This mission states the analytic part as Lean targets. The delay-ODE layer (existence, uniqueness and shape of Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​) is shared with the first mission of the series, and Proposition 7's proof depends on it. The stochastic contract model, the verification theorem and the optimality Theorems 1–5 are not formalized in this series.

Difficulty

Each piece of (20)–(22) is a one-variable inequality, but the functions are not explicit. Vw^\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}Vw^​ is defined through a delay equation, and the band's endpoints are defined implicitly through four nested steps: matching at θ‾\underline\thetaθ​, a range bound θ‾0\underline\theta^0θ​0, an upper threshold θˉ(θ‾)\bar\theta(\underline\theta)θˉ(θ​) and a root of a gap function ψ\psiψ. The natural argument, convexity or concavity of AIVI\mathcal A_IV_IAI​VI​ on the suspension region, fails: on [0,ϑ‾)[0,\underline\vartheta)[0,ϑ​) the function AIVI\mathcal A_IV_IAI​VI​ mixes VcV_{\mathsf c}Vc​ with the look-ahead value VI(w+β)V_I(w+\beta)VI​(w+β) and is not convex (p. 28), so the convexity arguments of the switching literature do not apply. The paper's proof of this single inequality occupies EC.3.12, with eight auxiliary lemmas.

Formalization scope

Functions are ℝ → ℝ and every statement quantifies over w≥0w\ge0w≥0. The standing assumptions are 0≤μ‾<μ0\le\underline\mu<\mu0≤μ​<μ, 0<b≤c0<b\le c0<b≤c, K>0K>0K>0, 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ and Assumption 1; μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0 and b>0b>0b>0 are disclosed additions. Conventions:

  • f′f'f′ in AI,A∅\mathcal A_I,\mathcal A_\emptysetAI​,A∅​ is the left derivative; derivatives of Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​, Vw~\mathcal V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ are taken within R+\mathbb R_+R+​.
  • (20) is posed for w>0w>0w>0: at 000 the left derivative does not exist and Vc′(0+)=+∞V_{\mathsf c}'(0^+)=+\inftyVc′​(0+)=+∞.
  • Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ is a solution of (25)–(26) chosen when one exists; wˇ\check wwˇ, w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^, Kˉ1\bar K_1Kˉ1​, θ‾0\underline\theta^0θ​0, θˉ\bar\thetaθˉ are infima or suprema of sets the paper describes; w~(θ‾)\tilde w(\underline\theta)w~(θ​), C(θ‾)C(\underline\theta)C(θ​) are chosen matching pairs.
  • "Increasing/decreasing" is strict.
  • K‾\underline KK​ (33) uses the corrected bracket ((ρ−μ)/ρ)β((\rho-\mu)/\rho)\beta((ρ−μ)/ρ)β in place of the printed (r/ρ)β(r/\rho)\beta(r/ρ)β; the printed form contradicts the proof's (EC.69).
  • Proposition 6's "w^<w^\hat{\mathbf w}<\hat{\mathrm w}w^<w^" is read as w^<wˉ\hat{\mathbf w}<\bar ww^<wˉ in the Condition 2 case, where w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^ does not exist; 0<ϑ‾0<\underline\vartheta0<ϑ​ is stated.
  • The goal is existential over Proposition 6 tuples. Lemmas EC.12 and EC.13 are stated at the tuple constructed in EC.3.9, in both cases of Condition 3; EC.13 is posed on (0,ϑ‾)(0,\underline\vartheta)(0,ϑ​).
  • Lemma EC.11's second limit is printed at 000; it is stated at θ‾˘\breve{\underline\theta}θ​˘​, as the proof computes it.

The tuple is never defined by the property that (46) satisfies (20)–(22); the construction definitions are Steps 1–4 of EC.3.9 only, and the goal requires all of Proposition 6's conclusions. The second claim of Proposition 7, (48) on the contract's utility, is out of scope.

A complete development needs existence, uniqueness and regularity for the linear delay equation (25) (reusable for other delay problems), implicit-function arguments for w~(θ‾)\tilde w(\underline\theta)w~(θ​), and the sign analysis of EC.3.12. Proofs of single milestones, and of the delay-ODE lemmas of the series' first mission, are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. Cao, P. Sun, F. Tian, Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost, Management Science, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4845
  • K. Duckworth, M. Zervos, A model for investment decisions with switching costs, Annals of Applied Probability 11(1), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/998926992
  • V. L. Vath, H. Pham, Explicit solution to an optimal switching problem in the two-regime case, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 46(2), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1137/050638783
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Dynamic Matching: Characterizing and Achieving Constant Regret I: Under General Position the Exhaustive Resolving Policy Has Regret at Most Γ/ϵ at All TimesResearch Paper

Motivation

Centralized matching markets (kidney exchange, ride hailing, freight and labor platforms) repeatedly decide which waiting participants to match now and which to hold for a better opportunity later. Matching early collects value sooner; waiting lets the platform see more arrivals and avoid matches that later turn out to be wasteful. A natural yardstick is the best set of matches that could have been made with hindsight from all arrivals up to a given time, and the question is how far an online policy, which cannot see the future, must fall behind that yardstick.

Kerimov, Ashlagi and Gurvich (SSRN 3824407, September 2022; Management Science 2023, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2021.01215) answer this for multi-way matching networks with patient agents. They identify a single parameter of the fluid relaxation, the general position gap ϵ\epsilonϵ, and show that the regret against the hindsight benchmark can be kept at order ϵ−1\epsilon^{-1}ϵ−1 at all times, and that no policy does better in order on non-trivial networks. This mission formalizes the upper bound. The paper places itself next to constant-regret results for online packing (Bumpensanti and Wang 2020; Vera and Banerjee 2021), where resolving a linear program at each arrival achieves bounded regret.

Setting

There are nnn agent types and ddd matches. Match mmm is a set A(m)\mathcal A(m)A(m) of at least two types, every type belongs to some match, and the matching matrix M∈{0,1}n×dM\in\{0,1\}^{n\times d}M∈{0,1}n×d has Mim=1M_{im}=1Mim​=1 iff i∈A(m)i\in\mathcal A(m)i∈A(m). Performing match mmm uses one agent of each type in A(m)\mathcal A(m)A(m) and earns rm>0r_m>0rm​>0. Time is discrete; at each time t=1,2,…t=1,2,\dotst=1,2,… one agent arrives, of type iii with probability λi>0\lambda_i>0λi​>0, ∑iλi=1\sum_i\lambda_i=1∑i​λi​=1, independently over time. AitA^t_iAit​ counts the type-iii arrivals by time ttt.

A matching policy records DmtD^t_mDmt​, the number of times match mmm has been performed by time ttt. It is admissible when it is non-anticipative and only matches agents present: MDt≤AtMD^t\le A^tMDt≤At. The pre-match queue is Qt=At−MDt−1Q^t=A^t-MD^{t-1}Qt=At−MDt−1, the value collected is RD,t=E[r⋅Dt]\mathcal R^{D,t}=\mathbb E[r\cdot D^t]RD,t=E[r⋅Dt], and the hindsight benchmark is

R∗,t=E[max⁡{r⋅y:My≤At, y∈Z≥0d}].\mathcal R^{*,t}=\mathbb E\big[\max\{r\cdot y: My\le A^t,\ y\in\mathbb Z^d_{\ge0}\}\big].R∗,t=E[max{r⋅y:My≤At, y∈Z≥0d​}].

The static-planning problem is the linear program

(SPP)max⁡ r⋅zs.t.Mz+s=λ, z≥0, s≥0.\text{(SPP)}\qquad \max\ r\cdot z\quad\text{s.t.}\quad Mz+s=\lambda,\ z\ge0,\ s\ge0.(SPP)max r⋅zs.t.Mz+s=λ, z≥0, s≥0.

For an optimal (z∗,s∗)(z^*,s^*)(z∗,s∗) let M+={m:zm∗>0}\mathcal M_+=\{m:z^*_m>0\}M+​={m:zm∗​>0} (active matches), M0\mathcal M_0M0​ the rest (redundant matches), Q+={j:sj∗>0}\mathcal Q_+=\{j:s^*_j>0\}Q+​={j:sj∗​>0} (under-demanded types) and Q0\mathcal Q_0Q0​ the rest (over-demanded types). The network satisfies general position (GP) if (SPP) has a unique optimal solution and it is non-degenerate, ∣M+∣+∣Q+∣=n|\mathcal M_+|+|\mathcal Q_+|=n∣M+​∣+∣Q+​∣=n. The general position gap is the smallest positive basic value,

ϵ=min⁡m∈M+zm∗ ∧ min⁡j∈Q+sj∗.\epsilon=\min_{m\in\mathcal M_+}z^*_m\ \wedge\ \min_{j\in\mathcal Q_+}s^*_j .ϵ=m∈M+​min​zm∗​ ∧ j∈Q+​min​sj∗​.

The exhaustive resolving policy with inter-action delay τ\tauτ acts only at the epochs tk=kτt_k=k\tautk​=kτ. There it performs an optimal solution of the integer program max⁡{r⋅z:Mz≤Qtk, z∈Z≥0d}\max\{r\cdot z: Mz\le Q^{t_k},\ z\in\mathbb Z^d_{\ge0}\}max{r⋅z:Mz≤Qtk​, z∈Z≥0d​} with the redundant matches removed, and then discards the leftover agents of the under-demanded types.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1 (Upper bound), p. 14

There are constants κ,Γ>0\kappa,\Gamma>0κ,Γ>0 depending only on n,d,M,rn,d,M,rn,d,M,r such that, under GP, the exhaustive resolving policy with τ=⌈κϵ−1⌉\tau=\lceil\kappa\epsilon^{-1}\rceilτ=⌈κϵ−1⌉ (any tie-breaking) is admissible and

R∗,t−RD,t≤Γ ϵ−1for all t≥1.\mathcal R^{*,t}-\mathcal R^{D,t}\le\Gamma\,\epsilon^{-1}\qquad\text{for all }t\ge1 .R∗,t−RD,t≤Γϵ−1for all t≥1.

The constants are not fixed, so the goal survives any improvement of them.

Milestones

  1. §2, p. 8: R∗,t=max⁡DRD,t\mathcal R^{*,t}=\max_{D}\mathcal R^{D,t}R∗,t=maxD​RD,t, attained by the ultimate batching policy.
  2. §4.2, (4), p. 20: under GP the optimal basis B\mathcal BB is invertible, (zM+∗,sQ+∗)=B−1λ(z^*_{\mathcal M_+},s^*_{\mathcal Q_+})=\mathcal B^{-1}\lambda(zM+​∗​,sQ+​∗​)=B−1λ, and the entries of B−1\mathcal B^{-1}B−1 are bounded by a constant of the topology.
  3. §4.2, p. 20: θ=∑m∈M+rmym\theta=\sum_{m\in\mathcal M_+}r_my^mθ=∑m∈M+​​rm​ym is the optimal dual of (SPP), θ≥0\theta\ge0θ≥0, and θi>0\theta_i>0θi​>0 on Q0\mathcal Q_0Q0​.
  4. Lemma 4.1, p. 19 (optimality test): a policy without redundant matches whose over-demanded queues have mean O(ϵ−1)O(\epsilon^{-1})O(ϵ−1) has regret O(ϵ−1)O(\epsilon^{-1})O(ϵ−1).
  5. Lemma 4.2, p. 21: a Foster–Lyapunov drift condition bounds stationary means (Glynn and Zeevi 2008).
  6. (11), p. 23: Eπ[h∗(Q0)]=O(ϵ−1)\mathbb E_\pi[h^*(Q^0)]=O(\epsilon^{-1})Eπ​[h∗(Q0)]=O(ϵ−1) for the stationary law of the epoch chain.
  7. App. D, p. 49: E0[h∗(Qtk)]=O(ϵ−1)\mathbb E_{\mathbf 0}[h^*(Q^{t_k})]=O(\epsilon^{-1})E0​[h∗(Qtk​)]=O(ϵ−1) for all k≥1k\ge1k≥1.

Here h∗(u)h^*(u)h∗(u) is the θ\thetaθ-weighted leftover in Q0\mathcal Q_0Q0​ after an optimal integer matching of uuu (display (7)).

Significance

The upper bound says that, under GP, hindsight-optimal performance up to an additive constant is achievable at every time simultaneously, not just at a known horizon. Long-run average optimality and near-optimality under discounting follow (Remark 2.1). The bound also quantifies the cost of acting often: the delay τ\tauτ and the regret both scale with ϵ−1\epsilon^{-1}ϵ−1, so networks close to degeneracy force batching. Combined with the paper's lower bound, ϵ−1\epsilon^{-1}ϵ−1 is the right order on non-trivial networks.

The result has a printed proof (§4, Appendices B and D) but no machine-checked one. Several intermediate statements of the printed proof do not hold as stated and are not posed here. The goal and the stated displays (11) and App. D are posed as the paper states them, so a formal proof requires a correct argument for the uniform-in-λ\lambdaλ bound on the over-demanded queues. Lemma 4.1, the basis and duality facts and Lemma 4.2 are self-contained and checkable on their own.

Difficulty

The obvious approach compares the policy's realized matches with the fluid optimum t z∗t\,z^*tz∗ and controls the deviation with concentration bounds. That gives errors of order t\sqrt tt​, not a constant. The constant comes from showing that the over-demanded queues stay of order ϵ−1\epsilon^{-1}ϵ−1 uniformly in time and in λ\lambdaλ. Between epochs these queues behave like a multidimensional reflected random walk whose drift toward zero is only of order ϵτ\epsilon\tauϵτ, while its fluctuations over an epoch are of order τ\sqrt\tauτ​. The delay τ≍ϵ−1\tau\asymp\epsilon^{-1}τ≍ϵ−1 balances the two, but the queue state enters through the integer program (3), whose solution changes discontinuously with the queues, and the quantities that measure the drift are signed combinations of arrival counts, to which the usual one-sided concentration bounds for nonnegative sums do not apply. On top of this every constant must be independent of λ\lambdaλ.

Formalization scope

  • Types are Fin n and matches Fin d (0-based); the topology with its two standing assumptions (∣A(m)∣≥2|\mathcal A(m)|\ge2∣A(m)∣≥2, every type in a match) is a structure, and λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 with ∑λi=1\sum\lambda_i=1∑λi​=1 and r>0r>0r>0 are hypotheses.
  • Time is N\mathbb NN; "for all t>0t>0t>0" is t≥1t\ge1t≥1. The arrival at time s+1s+1s+1 is the sss-th entry of a path ω:N→\omega:\mathbb N\toω:N→ Fin n. Expectations at horizon ttt are finite sums over the first ttt arrivals weighted by ∏λωs\prod\lambda_{\omega_s}∏λωs​​, so no expectation is a default value.
  • Admissible policies are non-anticipative cumulative counts with MDt≤AtMD^t\le A^tMDt≤At and no rejections. The resolving policy's removal of under-demanded leftovers acts on its own virtual queue, which agrees with the actual queue on Q0\mathcal Q_0Q0​; its matches are feasible without removals, so it is admissible.
  • (3) is solved with the redundant matches set to zero, and statements quantify over every tie-breaking selection. A selection exists (a sanity file exhibits one), so these statements are not vacuous.
  • GP is a hypothesis on an explicit pair (z∗,s∗)(z^*,s^*)(z∗,s∗); ϵ\epsilonϵ is the minimum of the positive basic values. The basis inverse is never a matrix-inverse function: statements assert the existence of a two-sided inverse.
  • h∗h^*h∗ is defined in the form min⁡{∑Q0θisi:Mz+s=u, zM0=0}\min\{\sum_{\mathcal Q_0}\theta_is_i: Mz+s=u,\ z_{\mathcal M_0}=0\}min{∑Q0​​θi​si​:Mz+s=u, zM0​​=0}, equivalent to (7) under the paper's reduction M0=∅\mathcal M_0=\emptysetM0​=∅; θ\thetaθ is any solution of the complementary-slackness system, which is unique under GP.
  • Every O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) is an explicit constant, quantified after the topology and rrr and before λ\lambdaλ. Placing it after λ\lambdaλ would turn the theorem into a per-instance boundedness statement and is ruled out.
  • A trivializing formalization (some unspecified policy, a τ\tauτ independent of ϵ\epsilonϵ, or GP replaced by an unsatisfiable condition) is ruled out: the policy is constructed, τ=⌈κ/ϵ⌉\tau=\lceil\kappa/\epsilon\rceilτ=⌈κ/ϵ⌉, and a sanity file proves GP for the Figure 1 network with ϵ=1/5\epsilon=1/5ϵ=1/5.
  • Not posed: the lower bound of Theorem 3.1, Proposition 4.1 (8)–(9), Lemmas B.1–B.2, Proposition B.1 and displays (21)–(22), which do not hold as printed; Theorem 5.2 and §6.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the LP facts (milestones 2–3) and Lemma 4.1, a Mathlib-ready proof of Lemma 4.2, and any correct argument for the epoch bounds.

Selected references

  • S. Kerimov, I. Ashlagi, I. Gurvich, Dynamic Matching: Characterizing and Achieving Constant Regret, SSRN 3824407 (version of Sep 14, 2022); Management Science, 2023. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3824407, https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.01215
  • P. W. Glynn, A. Zeevi, Bounding stationary expectations of Markov processes, in Markov Processes and Related Topics, IMS Collections 4, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1214/074921708000000381
  • P. Bumpensanti, H. Wang, A re-solving heuristic with uniformly bounded loss for network revenue management, Management Science 66, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2019.3365
  • D. Bertsimas, J. N. Tsitsiklis, Introduction to Linear Optimization, Athena Scientific, 1997.
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Partial Recovery in the Graph Alignment Problem II: Under Explicit Sparsity Conditions with nqs Above a Constant, Some Algorithm Recovers a Fraction α of the AlignmentResearch Paper

Motivation

Graph alignment asks for the correspondence between the vertex sets of two graphs that are noisy copies of each other. It underlies the de-anonymisation of social networks, where an anonymised graph is matched to a public one (Narayanan, Shmatikov 2009), the comparison of protein–protein interaction networks across species, and matching problems in computer vision. The standard random model for studying when alignment is possible is the correlated Erdős–Rényi model (Pedarsani, Grossglauser 2011).

In that model, exact recovery of the hidden correspondence and almost exact recovery (all but a vanishing fraction of vertices) have sharp thresholds: exact recovery by Cullina, Kiyavash 2016 and 2017; almost exact recovery when nqs=ω(1)nqs = \omega(1)nqs=ω(1) by Cullina, Kiyavash, Mittal and Poor (arXiv:1809.03553). Hall and Massoulié (arXiv:2007.00533v5, Operations Research 2023) study partial recovery, the recovery of a constant fraction α\alphaα of the correspondence, in the sparse regime nqs=Θ(1)nqs = \Theta(1)nqs=Θ(1), where almost exact recovery is impossible. This mission formalizes their possibility result, Theorem 2.3. Its companion mission (Partial Recovery in the Graph Alignment Problem I) formalizes the impossibility result, Theorem 2.1.

Setting

Fix n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 and parameters q,sq, sq,s with 0≤q<s≤10 \le q < s \le 10≤q<s≤1. A parent graph on {1,…,n}\{1, \dots, n\}{1,…,n} includes each edge independently with probability q/sq/sq/s. Two copies are made, and each copy keeps every edge independently with probability sss. The resulting graphs GAG_AGA​ and GB′G_{B'}GB′​ have adjacency matrices AAA and B′B'B′. For each unordered pair {i,j}\{i, j\}{i,j} of distinct vertices, (Aij,Bij′)(A_{ij}, B'_{ij})(Aij​,Bij′​) has the law PPP of display (3):

p00=1−2q+qs,p01=p10=q(1−s),p11=qs,p_{00} = 1 - 2q + qs, \qquad p_{01} = p_{10} = q(1-s), \qquad p_{11} = qs,p00​=1−2q+qs,p01​=p10​=q(1−s),p11​=qs,

independently over the (n2)\binom n2(2n​) pairs. The covariance of AijA_{ij}Aij​ and Bij′B'_{ij}Bij′​ is σ2=q(s−q)\sigma^2 = q(s-q)σ2=q(s−q) (display (2)), which is positive when q>0q > 0q>0.

A planted permutation π∗\pi^*π∗ relabels GB′G_{B'}GB′​ into the observed graph GBG_BGB​: Bπ∗(i)π∗(j)=Bij′B_{\pi^*(i)\pi^*(j)} = B'_{ij}Bπ∗(i)π∗(j)​=Bij′​. An algorithm sees (A,B)(A, B)(A,B) and returns a permutation π^\hat\piπ^. Its quality is the overlap

β(π^,π∗)=1n∑i=1n1{π^(i)=π∗(i)}.\beta(\hat\pi, \pi^*) = \frac1n \sum_{i=1}^n \mathbf 1\{\hat\pi(i) = \pi^*(i)\}.β(π^,π∗)=n1​i=1∑n​1{π^(i)=π∗(i)}.

For 0<α<10 < \alpha < 10<α<1, a permutation π\piπ is good (Definition 2) if at least n(1+α)/2n(1+\alpha)/2n(1+α)/2 vertices iii have degree at least nqs/2nqs/2nqs/2 in the intersection of GAG_AGA​ with GBG_BGB​ relabelled by π\piπ:

∑i=1n1{∑j≠iAijBπ(i)π(j)≥nqs2}≥n⋅1+α2.\sum_{i=1}^n \mathbf 1\Big\{\sum_{j \ne i} A_{ij} B_{\pi(i)\pi(j)} \ge \frac{nqs}{2}\Big\} \ge n\cdot\frac{1+\alpha}{2}.i=1∑n​1{j=i∑​Aij​Bπ(i)π(j)​≥2nqs​}≥n⋅21+α​.

In Lean, these objects are pLaw, Config, cfgProb, prob, A, B', B, overlap, good and Cond6 in GraphAlignment.Possible.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.3 (pp. 8–9)

Let 0<α<10 < \alpha < 10<α<1 and let q=qnq = q_nq=qn​, s=sns = s_ns=sn​ be sequences. Suppose there exist β,γ>0\beta, \gamma > 0β,γ>0 such that, for all large nnn,

nqs≥max⁡{20, 84log⁡21−α, 16min⁡(γ,β)(1−α)},s>8q1−α,2q(1−s2)s≤n−β,qs≤n−2γ.(6)nqs \ge \max\Big\{20,\ 84\log\frac{2}{1-\alpha},\ \frac{16}{\min(\gamma,\beta)(1-\alpha)}\Big\}, \quad s > \frac{8q}{1-\alpha}, \quad \frac{2q(1-s^2)}{s} \le n^{-\beta}, \quad qs \le n^{-2\gamma}. \tag{6}nqs≥max{20, 84log1−α2​, min(γ,β)(1−α)16​},s>1−α8q​,s2q(1−s2)​≤n−β,qs≤n−2γ.(6)

Then some algorithm returns π^\hat\piπ^ with

P[β(π^,π∗)≥α]→1(n→∞).\mathbb P\big[\beta(\hat\pi, \pi^*) \ge \alpha\big] \to 1 \qquad (n \to \infty).P[β(π^,π∗)≥α]→1(n→∞).

Milestones

  1. Lemma B.3: Mn=αnM−βIα−β+βnM−αIβ−αM^n = \alpha^n \frac{M - \beta I}{\alpha - \beta} + \beta^n \frac{M - \alpha I}{\beta - \alpha}Mn=αnα−βM−βI​+βnβ−αM−αI​ for a 2×22 \times 22×2 matrix with distinct eigenvalues α,β\alpha, \betaα,β.
  2. Lemma B.2: for n+1n+1n+1 independent pairs with law PPP and W=A0B1+⋯+AnB0W = A_0B_1 + \dots + A_nB_0W=A0​B1​+⋯+An​B0​,
E[etW]=(T+T2−4D2)n+1+(T−T2−4D2)n+1,T=p11(et−1)+1, D=σ2(et−1).\mathbb E[e^{tW}] = \Big(\tfrac{T + \sqrt{T^2 - 4D}}{2}\Big)^{n+1} + \Big(\tfrac{T - \sqrt{T^2 - 4D}}{2}\Big)^{n+1}, \quad T = p_{11}(e^t - 1) + 1,\ D = \sigma^2(e^t - 1).E[etW]=(2T+T2−4D​​)n+1+(2T−T2−4D​​)n+1,T=p11​(et−1)+1, D=σ2(et−1).
  1. Lemma B.1: (αk+βk)n/k≤(α2+β2)n/2(\alpha^k + \beta^k)^{n/k} \le (\alpha^2 + \beta^2)^{n/2}(αk+βk)n/k≤(α2+β2)n/2 for 2≤k≤n2 \le k \le n2≤k≤n and α,β>0\alpha, \beta > 0α,β>0.
  2. Lemma 4.3: min⁡z>0z−τeq2(z2−1)+q1(z−1)≤ζτ\min_{z > 0} z^{-\tau} e^{q_2(z^2-1) + q_1(z-1)} \le \zeta^\tauminz>0​z−τeq2​(z2−1)+q1​(z−1)≤ζτ, with ζ=max⁡{2eq1/τ, 4e(q2/τ)1/2}\zeta = \max\{\sqrt2 e q_1/\tau,\ 4e(q_2/\tau)^{1/2}\}ζ=max{2​eq1​/τ, 4e(q2​/τ)1/2}, and the minimizer satisfies z∗2=(τ−q1z∗)/(2q2)≤τ/(2q2)z^{*2} = (\tau - q_1 z^*)/(2q_2) \le \tau/(2q_2)z∗2=(τ−q1​z∗)/(2q2​)≤τ/(2q2​).
  3. Display (10): for a permutation ppp with a fraction ϵ\epsilonϵ of fixed points, ∣S21∣≤n(1−ϵ)|S^1_2| \le n(1-\epsilon)∣S21​∣≤n(1−ϵ) and ∣Sˉ22∣≤(n2)−(nϵ2)≤n22(1−ϵ2)|\bar S^2_2| \le \binom n2 - \binom{n\epsilon}2 \le \frac{n^2}2(1-\epsilon^2)∣Sˉ22​∣≤(2n​)−(2nϵ​)≤2n2​(1−ϵ2).
  4. Lemma A.2, in particular: P(Po(2λ/3)≥λ/2−1)≥0.7\mathbb P(\mathrm{Po}(2\lambda/3) \ge \lambda/2 - 1) \ge 0.7P(Po(2λ/3)≥λ/2−1)≥0.7 for λ≥20\lambda \ge 20λ≥20.
  5. Proposition 4.2: under (6), π∗\pi^*π∗ is good with probability tending to 1.
  6. Proposition 4.4: under (6), P(∀π, [π good⇒β(π,π∗)>α])→1\mathbb P(\forall \pi,\ [\pi \text{ good} \Rightarrow \beta(\pi, \pi^*) > \alpha]) \to 1P(∀π, [π good⇒β(π,π∗)>α])→1.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2.3 shows that partial alignment is information-theoretically achievable in the sparse regime nqs=Θ(1)nqs = \Theta(1)nqs=Θ(1), provided nqsnqsnqs is above an explicit constant depending on α\alphaα. Together with Theorem 2.1, it locates partial recovery between a necessary condition stated through the divergence D(P∥Q)D(P\|Q)D(P∥Q) and a sufficient condition stated through nqsnqsnqs. It complements the almost-exact-recovery results for nqs=ω(1)nqs = \omega(1)nqs=ω(1), which do not apply when nqsnqsnqs stays bounded. The moment generating function computation of Lemma B.2 and the inequality of Lemma B.1 were reused for the sharp exact-recovery threshold by Wu, Xu, Yu (p. 9 of the source).

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved on paper; no part of it is machine-checked. The paper's route to Proposition 4.2 applies a kkk-core theorem for G(n,λ/n)G(n, \lambda/n)G(n,λ/n) with λ\lambdaλ fixed and kkk an integer, at λ=nqs\lambda = nqsλ=nqs and k=nqs/2k = nqs/2k=nqs/2, which vary with nnn and need not be integers. The statement of Proposition 4.2 remains true, but a formal proof needs a different argument. Proposition 4.4's union bound contains two repairable gaps: an infimum taken over z>0z > 0z>0 instead of z>1z > 1z>1, and the bound n!≤nlog⁡nn! \le n^{\log n}n!≤nlogn. A formal development would settle the theorem under exactly the conditions (6).

Difficulty

The natural first step is to compute P(π good)\mathbb P(\pi \text{ good})P(π good) for a fixed wrong permutation π\piπ and take a union bound over all n!n!n! permutations. The difficulty is that for π≠π∗\pi \ne \pi^*π=π∗ the terms AijBp(i)p(j)′A_{ij} B'_{p(i)p(j)}Aij​Bp(i)p(j)′​ are not independent: an edge variable enters several terms along the cycles that ppp induces on vertex pairs. A Chernoff bound therefore needs the moment generating function of a sum over each cycle of pairs. That is a transfer-matrix computation, and the per-cycle bounds must then be recombined uniformly in the cycle lengths. The resulting exponent must beat log⁡n!≈nlog⁡n\log n! \approx n \log nlogn!≈nlogn. This is where the sparsity conditions 2q(1−s2)/s≤n−β2q(1-s^2)/s \le n^{-\beta}2q(1−s2)/s≤n−β and qs≤n−2γqs \le n^{-2\gamma}qs≤n−2γ, and the constant 16/(min⁡(γ,β)(1−α))16/(\min(\gamma,\beta)(1-\alpha))16/(min(γ,β)(1−α)), enter. Proposition 4.2 is a concentration statement for the number of vertices of degree at least nqs/2nqs/2nqs/2 in the intersection graph, an Erdős–Rényi graph G(n,qs)G(n, qs)G(n,qs), when nqsnqsnqs is only a large constant.

Formalization scope

Everything is finite. Vertices are Fin n and permutations are Equiv.Perm (Fin n). A configuration assigns (Aij,Bij′)∈(A_{ij}, B'_{ij}) \in(Aij​,Bij′​)∈ Bool × Bool to each non-diagonal element of Sym2 (Fin n), and probabilities are finite sums of the product weights. They are not taken against a free measure, so the model is a genuine probability space whenever 0≤q<s≤10 \le q < s \le 10≤q<s≤1. The standing assumptions 0≤qn<sn≤10 \le q_n < s_n \le 10≤qn​<sn​≤1 for every nnn (p. 5 and the running assumption s>qs > qs>q on p. 7) are hypotheses of the asymptotic statements. The paper's remark "we assume s<1s < 1s<1" (p. 6) is used by neither result and is not imposed. Logarithms are natural, "→1\to 1→1" is a limit along n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞, and the thresholds nqs/2nqs/2nqs/2 and n(1+α)/2n(1+\alpha)/2n(1+α)/2 are real numbers, not floored.

In the goal, an algorithm is a family of maps from the observed pair (A,B)(A, B)(A,B) to a permutation. It is chosen before the planted permutations and may depend on nnn, qnq_nqn​, sns_nsn​, α\alphaα, but never on π∗\pi^*π∗. This rules out the trivial algorithm "output π∗\pi^*π∗". The theorem does not say how π∗\pi^*π∗ is drawn, so the limit is required for every sequence of planted permutations, which covers the uniform case. "Exponential time" is not formalized.

Three statements are posed in a corrected reading, each disclosed in its Formalization Note. In Lemma 4.3, τ,q2>0\tau, q_2 > 0τ,q2​>0 and z>0z > 0z>0: the paper allows τ=q2=0\tau = q_2 = 0τ=q2​=0 and z=0z = 0z=0, where ζ\zetaζ and (13) are undefined, and Lean's convention 0−τ=00^{-\tau} = 00−τ=0 would make the bound trivial. Display (10) is stated for an arbitrary permutation ppp. Only the "in particular" clause of Lemma A.2 is stated, because the paper's proof of the general normal-approximation bound does not hold as written. Lemma 4.1 (a kkk-core theorem of Pittel, Spencer and Wormald) is not posed.

A complete development needs: Chernoff bounds for finite sums of dependent Bernoulli variables via the transfer-matrix formula, binomial and Poisson tail estimates, and the cycle decomposition of the action of a permutation on unordered pairs. Lemmas B.1, B.3 and 4.3 are general-purpose and reusable. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative proofs of Proposition 4.2 that avoid kkk-cores, are welcome.

The source is the arXiv preprint v5, whose appendices contain the proofs that the main text defers to an electronic companion.

Selected references

  • G. Hall, L. Massoulié, Partial Recovery in the Graph Alignment Problem, Operations Research, 2023; preprint arXiv:2007.00533v5, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.00533
  • D. Cullina, N. Kiyavash, P. Mittal, H. V. Poor, Partial Recovery of Erdős–Rényi Graph Alignment via k-Core Alignment, arXiv preprint, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.03553
  • D. Cullina, N. Kiyavash, Exact Alignment Recovery for Correlated Erdős–Rényi Graphs, arXiv preprint, 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.06783
  • D. Cullina, N. Kiyavash, Improved Achievability and Converse Bounds for Erdős–Rényi Graph Matching, SIGMETRICS, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1602.01042
  • B. Pittel, J. Spencer, N. Wormald, Sudden Emergence of a Giant k-Core in a Random Graph, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1006/jctb.1996.0036
  • Y. Wu, J. Xu, S. H. Yu, Settling the Sharp Reconstruction Thresholds of Random Graph Matching, arXiv preprint, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.00082
  • A. Narayanan, V. Shmatikov, De-anonymizing Social Networks, IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1109/SP.2009.22
  • P. Pedarsani, M. Grossglauser, On the Privacy of Anonymized Networks, KDD, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1145/2020408.2020596
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Graph TheoryOptimizationQuantum Information·Captain: mikedeng1

A Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm I: At p = 1 the QAOA Expected Cut Is at Least 0.6924 Times the Maximum Cut on Every Connected 3-Regular GraphResearch Paper

Motivation

The quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) of Farhi, Goldstone and Gutmann (arXiv:1411.4028, 2014) is a family of shallow quantum circuits, indexed by an integer depth p≥1p \ge 1p≥1, that prepare states whose computational-basis measurements are biased toward good solutions of a combinatorial optimization problem. It became the standard candidate for optimization on near-term quantum hardware, and its performance on MaxCut is the benchmark against which later analyses and experiments are measured.

The original paper proves one concrete performance guarantee: at depth p=1p = 1p=1, on 3-regular graphs, the algorithm achieves an approximation ratio of at least 0.69240.69240.6924. Short timeline:

  • 2014, Farhi–Goldstone–Gutmann: the p=1p = 1p=1 bound 0.69240.69240.6924 on 3-regular graphs, by reducing the expected cut to three subgraph functions and a numerical minimization (arXiv:1411.4028).
  • 2018, Wang, Hadfield, Jiang and Rieffel: closed-form expressions for the p=1p = 1p=1 MaxCut expectation on arbitrary graphs (arXiv:1706.02998, Phys. Rev. A 97, 022304).
  • Classically, Goemans and Williamson's semidefinite rounding achieves 0.8780.8780.878 on all graphs (J. ACM 42, 1995), so the p=1p = 1p=1 guarantee is, as the paper itself notes, below the best classical algorithms.

Setting

A graph GGG has vertex set {0,…,n−1}\{0, \dots, n-1\}{0,…,n−1}, and 3-regular means every vertex has exactly three neighbours. Each vertex carries a qubit; a computational basis state is a bit string z=z0⋯zn−1z = z_0 \cdots z_{n-1}z=z0​⋯zn−1​. For an edge ⟨jk⟩\langle jk\rangle⟨jk⟩ the clause C⟨jk⟩(z)C_{\langle jk\rangle}(z)C⟨jk⟩​(z) is 111 if zj≠zkz_j \neq z_kzj​=zk​ and 000 otherwise, and the cut objective is

C(z)=∑⟨jk⟩C⟨jk⟩(z),C(z) = \sum_{\langle jk\rangle} C_{\langle jk\rangle}(z),C(z)=⟨jk⟩∑​C⟨jk⟩​(z),

the number of edges cut by the bipartition zzz defines. As an operator, CCC is diagonal in the computational basis.

Let B=∑jσjxB = \sum_j \sigma^x_jB=∑j​σjx​ and let ∣s⟩=2−n/2∑z∣z⟩|s\rangle = 2^{-n/2}\sum_z |z\rangle∣s⟩=2−n/2∑z​∣z⟩. For angles γ,β∈R\gamma, \beta \in \mathbb Rγ,β∈R, the depth-one QAOA state and its expected cut are

∣γ,β⟩=e−iβB e−iγC ∣s⟩,F1(γ,β)=⟨γ,β∣ C ∣γ,β⟩=∑z∣⟨z∣γ,β⟩∣2 C(z).|\gamma,\beta\rangle = e^{-i\beta B}\, e^{-i\gamma C}\, |s\rangle, \qquad F_1(\gamma,\beta) = \langle\gamma,\beta|\,C\,|\gamma,\beta\rangle = \sum_z |\langle z|\gamma,\beta\rangle|^2\, C(z).∣γ,β⟩=e−iβBe−iγC∣s⟩,F1​(γ,β)=⟨γ,β∣C∣γ,β⟩=z∑​∣⟨z∣γ,β⟩∣2C(z).

The angles may be restricted to γ∈[0,2π]\gamma \in [0, 2\pi]γ∈[0,2π], β∈[0,π]\beta \in [0, \pi]β∈[0,π] by periodicity.

Two kinds of small subgraphs govern the analysis. A crossed square is a set of four vertices spanning exactly five edges (a 4-cycle with one diagonal). An isolated triangle is a triangle whose three outgoing edges end on three distinct vertices. SSS and TTT denote their numbers in GGG. Finally, for an edge ⟨jk⟩\langle jk\rangle⟨jk⟩ the subgraph type is the shape of the edge together with its adjacent edges; in a 3-regular graph there are three types g4,g5,g6g_4, g_5, g_6g4​,g5​,g6​, according as jjj and kkk have two, one or no common neighbours. Each type ggg defines a function fg(γ,β)f_g(\gamma, \beta)fg​(γ,β), the expectation of the clause of the central edge in the depth-one QAOA state of the subgraph ggg alone.

Formalization targets

Goal: the depth-one ratio on cubic graphs

For every connected 3-regular graph GGG there are angles γ∈[0,2π]\gamma \in [0, 2\pi]γ∈[0,2π], β∈[0,π]\beta \in [0, \pi]β∈[0,π] with

F1(γ,β)  ≥  0.6924⋅C(z)for every bit string z,F_1(\gamma, \beta) \;\ge\; 0.6924 \cdot C(z) \qquad \text{for every bit string } z,F1​(γ,β)≥0.6924⋅C(z)for every bit string z,

that is, M1=max⁡γ,βF1≥0.6924⋅max⁡zC(z)M_1 = \max_{\gamma,\beta} F_1 \ge 0.6924 \cdot \max_z C(z)M1​=maxγ,β​F1​≥0.6924⋅maxz​C(z). The constant is exactly the paper's 0.69240.69240.6924, and K4K_4K4​ is included.

Milestones

The paper's argument passes through the following claims, each a milestone:

  1. At p=1p = 1p=1 each edge term of a 3-regular graph equals fg4f_{g_4}fg4​​, fg5f_{g_5}fg5​​ or fg6f_{g_6}fg6​​ according to its subgraph type (p. 5).
  2. In a connected 3-regular graph other than K4K_4K4​, there are SSS edges of type g4g_4g4​ and 4S+3T4S + 3T4S+3T of type g5g_5g5​ (pp. 8–9).
  3. Equation (32): F1=Sfg4+(4S+3T)fg5+(3n/2−5S−3T)fg6F_1 = S f_{g_4} + (4S + 3T) f_{g_5} + (3n/2 - 5S - 3T) f_{g_6}F1​=Sfg4​​+(4S+3T)fg5​​+(3n/2−5S−3T)fg6​​ (p. 9).
  4. 3T+4S≤n3T + 4S \le n3T+4S≤n (p. 8).
  5. Every cut has at most 3n/2−S−T3n/2 - S - T3n/2−S−T edges (p. 9).
  6. For s,t≥0s, t \ge 0s,t≥0 with 4s+3t≤14s + 3t \le 14s+3t≤1, the scaled ratio (35) M1(1,s,t)/(3/2−s−t)M_1(1, s, t)/(3/2 - s - t)M1​(1,s,t)/(3/2−s−t) is at least 0.69240.69240.6924 (p. 9).
  7. On K4K_4K4​ the depth-one ratio exceeds 0.69240.69240.6924 (p. 8).

Significance

The result is the first rigorous worst-case guarantee for the QAOA, and the method behind it (the expected objective is a sum of local terms, each depending only on a bounded neighbourhood of an edge) is the template for every later analysis of fixed-depth QAOA on bounded-degree graphs. It shows that a depth-one circuit, of depth independent of nnn, achieves a constant approximation ratio uniformly over an infinite class of graphs.

The paper's proof is complete apart from one numerical step: the minimization of (35) is reported as a numerical evaluation. No machine-checked version of the result exists. A formal proof requires an exact evaluation of the three subgraph functions at suitable angles, an exact combinatorial count of edge types, and a certified inequality in place of the numerical minimization. The margin is small: the exact minimum is 12+133≈0.692450\tfrac12 + \tfrac{1}{3\sqrt 3} \approx 0.69245021​+33​1​≈0.692450, about 5⋅10−55 \cdot 10^{-5}5⋅10−5 above the paper's constant.

Difficulty

The light-cone reduction (milestone 1) is the conceptual step: one must show that conjugating a two-qubit clause by e−iγCe^{-i\gamma C}e−iγC and e−iβBe^{-i\beta B}e−iβB leaves an operator that involves only the qubits adjacent to the edge, and that the remaining qubits contribute a factor of one. In matrix form on 2n2^n2n-dimensional space this is a statement about tensor-product structure that the definitions do not make visible. The combinatorial count (milestones 2–4) needs a careful case analysis of how triangles sit in a cubic graph, including the exceptional graph K4K_4K4​, where the count fails. The final inequality (milestone 6) has a margin of order 10−410^{-4}10−4, so crude bounds on the trigonometric functions fgf_{g}fg​ do not suffice.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. Bit strings are Qubits n = Fin n → Bool from the published QAlgorithms layer, with true the bit 111. States are vectors in EuclideanSpace ℂ (Qubits n); ∣s⟩|s\rangle∣s⟩, CCC as a diagonal operator, BBB and the QAOA unitary are the published definitions uniformState, problemHamiltonian, qaoaMixer, qaoaUnitary. The latter takes mixer angles before phase angles.
  • Conventions. Graphs are SimpleGraph (Fin n) with decidable adjacency; "3-regular" is IsRegularOfDegree 3. The cut counts each edge once. F1F_1F1​ is defined as ∑zPr⁡[z] C(z)\sum_z \Pr[z]\,C(z)∑z​Pr[z]C(z), which equals ⟨γ,β∣C∣γ,β⟩\langle\gamma,\beta|C|\gamma,\beta\rangle⟨γ,β∣C∣γ,β⟩ because CCC is diagonal. The constant 0.69240.69240.6924 is the exact rational 1731/25001731/25001731/2500.
  • Added hypotheses. Milestones 2 and 3 assume GGG connected and n≠4n \ne 4n=4, which excludes K4K_4K4​, the case the paper sets aside on p. 8. No other hypothesis is added.
  • Out of scope. The goal concerns the expected cut at good angles, which is what the paper's analysis bounds. Measuring the state, repeating, and the claim that a cut of that size is then found with high probability are not formalized; nor are running time, circuit depth, or the search for optimal angles.
  • Ruled-out trivializations. A cut objective counting each edge twice, or an unnormalized state, would leave the ratio statement formally intact but about the wrong objects; the setting counts each edge once and uses the normalized uniform superposition. The goal quantifies over all bit strings, so it cannot be satisfied by bounding a particular cut.
  • Contributions welcome. Reusable lemmas on the light-cone locality of conjugated Pauli operators, closed forms of the depth-one MaxCut expectation, and counting lemmas for triangles in cubic graphs all serve beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • E. Farhi, J. Goldstone, S. Gutmann, A Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm, arXiv preprint, 2014. https://arxiv.org/abs/1411.4028
  • Z. Wang, S. Hadfield, Z. Jiang, E. G. Rieffel, Quantum approximate optimization algorithm for MaxCut: A fermionic view, Phys. Rev. A 97, 022304, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.02998
  • M. X. Goemans, D. P. Williamson, Improved approximation algorithms for maximum cut and satisfiability problems using semidefinite programming, J. ACM 42(6), 1995. https://doi.org/10.1145/227683.227684
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Bandit AlgorithmsOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Balancing Optimal Large Deviations in Ranking and Selection: The BOLD Allocation Learns the Large Deviations Optimality Conditions With Probability OneResearch Paper

Motivation

Ranking and selection asks which of MMM simulated alternatives has the largest mean, when each simulation run returns one noisy sample and the simulation budget is limited. A large literature allocates the budget using the large-deviations analysis of Glynn and Juneja (2004): for a static allocation in which alternative xxx receives a fixed fraction αx\alpha_xαx​ of the samples, the probability of incorrect selection decays exponentially, and the allocation that maximizes the decay rate is characterized by a system of nonlinear optimality conditions. Those conditions depend on the unknown means, so practical procedures plug in estimates and solve the system repeatedly, which is costly and comes with few guarantees.

Chen and Ryzhov (Proc. 2019 Winter Simulation Conference) propose Balancing Optimal Large Deviations (BOLD), a sequential rule that never solves the optimality conditions: at each step it evaluates the two sides of one condition at plug-in estimates and samples whichever alternative appears to be falling behind. It has no tuning parameters and applies to any sampling distribution whose rate function can be evaluated. The paper states that BOLD learns the optimality conditions with probability 1; the full proofs are in the companion article (Chen and Ryzhov, Management Science, 2023).

Setting

There are M>2M > 2M>2 alternatives with distinct means μ1,…,μM\mu_1,\dots,\mu_Mμ1​,…,μM​; the best is x∗=arg⁡max⁡xμxx^* = \arg\max_x \mu_xx∗=argmaxx​μx​. Alternative xxx produces independent samples from a law FxF_xFx​ with mean μx\mu_xμx​, a member of a distributional family {Fx(θ)}\{F_x(\theta)\}{Fx​(θ)} indexed by its mean θ\thetaθ. The families may differ between alternatives.

The rate function of the member with mean θ\thetaθ is the Fenchel–Legendre transform of its log-moment generating function,

Ix(u;θ)=sup⁡γ(γu−log⁡E eγW),W∼Fx(θ),I_x(u;\theta) = \sup_{\gamma}\big(\gamma u - \log \mathbb E\,e^{\gamma W}\big),\qquad W \sim F_x(\theta),Ix​(u;θ)=γsup​(γu−logEeγW),W∼Fx​(θ),

with values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and Dx(u;θ)=∂Ix(u;θ)/∂uD_x(u;\theta) = \partial I_x(u;\theta)/\partial uDx​(u;θ)=∂Ix​(u;θ)/∂u. For a normal law with variance λx2\lambda_x^2λx2​, Ix(u;θ)=(u−θ)2/(2λx2)I_x(u;\theta) = (u-\theta)^2/(2\lambda_x^2)Ix​(u;θ)=(u−θ)2/(2λx2​).

An allocation chooses alternative xnx^nxn at stage n=0,1,…n = 0,1,\dotsn=0,1,…. Write NxnN^n_xNxn​ for the number of samples of xxx among stages 0,…,n−10,\dots,n-10,…,n−1 and θxn\theta^n_xθxn​ for their mean (an arbitrary θx0\theta^0_xθx0​ while Nxn=0N^n_x = 0Nxn​=0). The plug-in rate is Ixn(⋅)=Ix(⋅;θxn)I^n_x(\cdot) = I_x(\cdot;\theta^n_x)Ixn​(⋅)=Ix​(⋅;θxn​), likewise DxnD^n_xDxn​. For x≠yx \ne yx=y, ux,ynu^n_{x,y}ux,yn​ is the solution of

NxnDxn(u)+NynDyn(u)=0(10)N^n_x D^n_x(u) + N^n_y D^n_y(u) = 0 \qquad (10)Nxn​Dxn​(u)+Nyn​Dyn​(u)=0(10)

and Γx,yn=NxnIxn(ux,yn)+NynIyn(ux,yn)\Gamma^n_{x,y} = N^n_x I^n_x(u^n_{x,y}) + N^n_y I^n_y(u^n_{x,y})Γx,yn​=Nxn​Ixn​(ux,yn​)+Nyn​Iyn​(ux,yn​) (11).

BOLD (Figure 1 of the paper): let x∗,nx^{*,n}x∗,n be the leader, an alternative with the largest θxn\theta^n_xθxn​. If the leader is not unique, sample the tied leader with the fewest samples. Otherwise sample the leader if

∑x≠x∗,nIx∗,nn(ux∗,n,xn)Ixn(ux∗,n,xn)>1,(12)\sum_{x\ne x^{*,n}} \frac{I^n_{x^{*,n}}(u^n_{x^{*,n},x})}{I^n_x(u^n_{x^{*,n},x})} > 1, \qquad (12)x=x∗,n∑​Ixn​(ux∗,n,xn​)Ix∗,nn​(ux∗,n,xn​)​>1,(12)

and if not, sample the x≠x∗,nx \ne x^{*,n}x=x∗,n minimizing Γx∗,n,xn\Gamma^n_{x^{*,n},x}Γx∗,n,xn​ (13). Remaining ties are broken arbitrarily.

Formalization targets

Goal: BOLD learns the optimality conditions

Under Assumptions 1–4 of the paper, with probability 1,

lim⁡n→∞∑x≠x∗Ix∗n(ux∗,xn)Ixn(ux∗,xn)=1andlim⁡n→∞Γx∗,ynΓx∗,zn=1  for all y,z≠x∗.\lim_{n\to\infty}\sum_{x\ne x^*}\frac{I^n_{x^*}(u^n_{x^*,x})}{I^n_x(u^n_{x^*,x})} = 1 \quad\text{and}\quad \lim_{n\to\infty}\frac{\Gamma^n_{x^*,y}}{\Gamma^n_{x^*,z}} = 1 \ \text{ for all } y,z\ne x^*.n→∞lim​x=x∗∑​Ixn​(ux∗,xn​)Ix∗n​(ux∗,xn​)​=1andn→∞lim​Γx∗,zn​Γx∗,yn​​=1  for all y,z=x∗.

These are the plug-in forms of the total balance condition (5) and the individual balance conditions (6), which together characterize the optimal static allocation. The paper states them as Theorems 3 and 4; the goal is their conjunction.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 1 (consistency). Under Assumptions 1–3, Nxn→∞N^n_x \to \inftyNxn​→∞ for every xxx, almost surely.
  2. Theorem 2. Under Assumptions 1–3, lim sup⁡nNxn/Nyn<∞\limsup_n N^n_x/N^n_y < \inftylimsupn​Nxn​/Nyn​<∞ for all x,yx, yx,y, almost surely.
  3. Theorem 3. The total balance limit above.
  4. Theorem 4. The individual balance limit above.

Significance

The result. Convergence of BOLD to the optimality conditions shows that the static optimum of Glynn and Juneja can be learned by a cheap sequential rule without knowing the proportion of the budget the best alternative should receive. Top-two methods require that proportion as an input. The paper claims the guarantee for any sampling distributions satisfying four regularity assumptions, not only normal ones. As the paper notes, convergence to the static optimum does not by itself transfer the static exponential rate to the adaptive procedure; the result concerns learning the conditions.

The formalization. The WSC paper gives proof outlines only, and the complete argument lives in a long journal article. No part of it has been machine-checked. A formal proof would check a strong-law argument for an adaptive procedure with two interleaved decision criteria and would yield a reusable formal model of sequential sampling for ranking and selection with general rate functions.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is "sample means converge, hence the plug-in conditions converge". It fails because the sample means converge only if every alternative is sampled infinitely often, and BOLD gives no forced exploration: an alternative is sampled only when (12) or (13) selects it. Consistency must therefore come from the structure of the rule itself. Even with consistency, the limits in Theorems 3–4 are not continuity statements: the plug-in quantities depend on the sample sizes as well as the sample means, and they oscillate around the level 1 as (12) alternately holds and fails, so convergence requires quantitative control of how long the rule can neglect any one alternative. Discrete sampling laws add ties among sample means and a sample mean that can coincide with another alternative's true mean (Assumption 3).

Formalization scope

  • Model. Alternatives are Fin M with 2 < M (indexed from 0). The family is Fam : Fin M → ℝ → Measure ℝ of probability measures, with true law Fam x (μ x). Samples form an observation array W x k (the (k+1)(k+1)(k+1)-th sample of xxx), mutually independent, with W x k ∼ Fam x (μ x); this gives the same law of the sample path as the paper's sequential sampling.
  • Rate function. Ix(u;θ)I_x(u;\theta)Ix​(u;θ) is the extended-real Legendre transform of the extended-real log-MGF, from the published BellWilliams2001.ThresholdPolicy.LargeDeviation, so +∞+\infty+∞ is a genuine value. DxD_xDx​ is the derivative of its real part. Conditions on DxD_xDx​ are imposed on the effective domain Dx\mathcal D_xDx​, where IxI_xIx​ is finite nearby.
  • Parameter space. For each xxx there is an open interval Θx⊇Hx\Theta_x \supseteq H_xΘx​⊇Hx​ that contains the samples almost surely, on which Fx(θ)F_x(\theta)Fx​(θ) has mean θ\thetaθ and Ix(⋅;θ)I_x(\cdot;\theta)Ix​(⋅;θ) is finite between any two parameters. The initial means lie in Θx\Theta_xΘx​. These conditions are not printed, but without them the plug-in rule can starve an alternative forever: a law with Ix(⋅;θ)=+∞I_x(\cdot;\theta) = +\inftyIx​(⋅;θ)=+∞ off one point gives Γ=+∞\Gamma = +\inftyΓ=+∞. Bernoulli laws, whose sample means reach 000 or 111, fall outside this convention, although the paper says they are covered.
  • Assumptions. The interval HHH of Assumptions 1–2 is one fixed interval Hx=[ax,bx]H_x = [a_x,b_x]Hx​=[ax​,bx​] per alternative with μx\mu_xμx​ in its interior. Assumption 3 is written without division. Assumption 4 is joint C1C^1C1 on Dx\mathcal D_xDx​.
  • Algorithm. BOLD is a predicate IsBOLD on allocation sequences, so every tie-breaking rule is covered. The initial means θ0\theta^0θ0 are arbitrary. The solution of (10) is a chosen solution between the two sample means; its uniqueness is the paper's claim, not a hypothesis.
  • Conventions. Ratios and Γ\GammaΓ are in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], with a/0=∞a/0 = \inftya/0=∞ for a>0a > 0a>0, so a never-sampled leader triggers (12) as in the paper. Theorem 2's limsup is taken in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. Every theorem is an almost-sure statement, with "probability 1" taken from §4.
  • Ruled out. The theorems are not vacuous: a BOLD run exists on every realization (a local check proves this). The rate function is the Legendre transform of the actual family, not an unconstrained function. The family is not fixed to the normal or any single parametric case.

The development needs strong laws of large numbers along adaptively chosen sample counts, properties of Legendre transforms of log-moment generating functions (convexity, a unique zero at the mean), and law-of-the-iterated-logarithm-type rates for sample means. Lemmas on Legendre transforms of log-MGFs and the observation-array model are reusable for other large-deviations allocation rules. Contributions toward any milestone are welcome. Statements specialized to normal families are not substitutes for the general milestones.

Selected references

  • Y. Chen and I. O. Ryzhov, Balancing Optimal Large Deviations in Ranking and Selection, Proc. 2019 Winter Simulation Conference, pp. 3368–3379, IEEE.
  • Y. Chen and I. O. Ryzhov, Balancing Optimal Large Deviations in Sequential Selection, Management Science, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4527
  • P. Glynn and S. Juneja, A Large Deviations Perspective on Ordinal Optimization, Proc. 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, pp. 577–585, IEEE.
  • A. Dembo and O. Zeitouni, Large Deviations Techniques and Applications, 2nd ed., Springer, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-03311-7
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Complexity TheoryQuantum Information·Captain: mikedeng1

Fixed-Point Quantum Search with an Optimal Number of Queries: The Phases of Eq. (11) Give Success Probability 1 − δ²T_L(T_{1/L}(1/δ)√(1−λ))²Research Paper

Motivation

Quantum search starts with a state that has some overlap with a desired target. Standard Grover iterations can increase that overlap quickly, but their success probability oscillates with the number of iterations. If the initial overlap is unknown, a sequence chosen for one value can pass the target and perform poorly at another. Earlier fixed-point constructions avoided this oscillation but lost the quadratic improvement in query count. Yoder, Low, and Chuang gave a sequence of adjustable phase reflections with both a specified failure tolerance and a query count proportional to the inverse square root of the initial target probability Yoder, Low, and Chuang (2014).

The result concerns amplitude amplification, a reusable procedure in which a quantum algorithm prepares a state, a target test identifies the useful component, and repeated operations increase the chance of measuring that component. The paper's exact success formula is useful because it says what happens at every initial overlap, rather than only at a single guessed overlap or in an asymptotic regime. Its polynomial form also explains why the interval with a guaranteed error bound grows as the sequence becomes longer Yoder, Low, and Chuang (2014), pp. 1–2.

Setting

Let ∣s⟩|s\rangle∣s⟩ and ∣T⟩|T\rangle∣T⟩ be unit vectors in a finite-dimensional complex state space. The target overlap is λ=∣⟨T∣s⟩∣2>0\lambda=|\langle T|s\rangle|^2>0λ=∣⟨T∣s⟩∣2>0. The parameter δ\deltaδ sets the desired upper bound δ2\delta^2δ2 on failure probability. A generalized reflection about a unit state changes its phase while leaving the orthogonal directions unchanged. The two reflections used here are

Ss(α)=I−(1−e−iα)∣s⟩⟨s∣,ST(β)=I−(1−eiβ)∣T⟩⟨T∣.S_s(\alpha)=I-(1-e^{-i\alpha})|s\rangle\langle s|, \qquad S_T(\beta)=I-(1-e^{i\beta})|T\rangle\langle T|.Ss​(α)=I−(1−e−iα)∣s⟩⟨s∣,ST​(β)=I−(1−eiβ)∣T⟩⟨T∣.

Their Grover iterate is G(α,β)=−Ss(α)ST(β)G(\alpha,\beta)=-S_s(\alpha)S_T(\beta)G(α,β)=−Ss​(α)ST​(β). For L=2l+1L=2l+1L=2l+1, the sequence is SL=G(αl,βl)⋯G(α1,β1)\mathcal S_L=G(\alpha_l,\beta_l)\cdots G(\alpha_1,\beta_1)SL​=G(αl​,βl​)⋯G(α1​,β1​), so the iterate with index 111 acts first. The phases are those in Eq. (11) of the paper: αj=−βl−j+1=2cot⁡−1(tan⁡(2πj/L)1−γ2)\alpha_j=-\beta_{l-j+1}=2\cot^{-1}(\tan(2\pi j/L)\sqrt{1-\gamma^2})αj​=−βl−j+1​=2cot−1(tan(2πj/L)1−γ2​), where γ−1=T1/L(1/δ)\gamma^{-1}=T_{1/L}(1/\delta)γ−1=T1/L​(1/δ) Yoder, Low, and Chuang (2014), pp. 2–3.

Here TLT_LTL​ is the degree-LLL Chebyshev polynomial of the first kind. For the fractional order at an argument at least one, T1/L(1/δ)T_{1/L}(1/\delta)T1/L​(1/δ) means the positive real continuation cosh⁡(arcosh⁡(1/δ)/L)\cosh(\operatorname{arcosh}(1/\delta)/L)cosh(arcosh(1/δ)/L). This convention gives TL(γ−1)=1/δT_L(\gamma^{-1})=1/\deltaTL​(γ−1)=1/δ. The paper also uses a two-dimensional coordinate system spanned by the prepared state and target state, with basis order ∣tˉ⟩,∣t⟩|\bar t\rangle,|t\rangle∣tˉ⟩,∣t⟩ and ∣s⟩=(1−λ,λ)|s\rangle=(\sqrt{1-\lambda},\sqrt\lambda)∣s⟩=(1−λ​,λ​) Yoder, Low, and Chuang (2014), Eqs. (4), (6)–(7).

Formalization targets

Exact success probability

The goal is the paper's Eq. (1), for the phase sequence of Eq. (11):

∣⟨T∣SL∣s⟩∣2=1−δ2TL ⁣(T1/L(1/δ)1−λ)2,L=2l+1.|\langle T|\mathcal S_L|s\rangle|^2 =1-\delta^2T_L\!\left(T_{1/L}(1/\delta)\sqrt{1-\lambda}\right)^2, \qquad L=2l+1.∣⟨T∣SL​∣s⟩∣2=1−δ2TL​(T1/L​(1/δ)1−λ​)2,L=2l+1.

This equality determines the entire response curve, including the one-step case l=0l=0l=0. It is stated for arbitrary finite dimension, rather than only after fixing two coordinates. The milestones cover the paper's two-dimensional reduction, the reflection and rotation formulas, the equatorial-rotation sequence, its amplitude recurrence, and the Chebyshev identity used to finish the calculation Yoder, Low, and Chuang (2014), Eqs. (1), (4), (6)–(15).

Consequences

The same exact formula gives a fixed-point interval. With w=1−T1/L(1/δ)−2w=1-T_{1/L}(1/\delta)^{-2}w=1−T1/L​(1/δ)−2, the desired success bound holds whenever λ≥w\lambda\ge wλ≥w:

λ≥w⟹∣⟨T∣SL∣s⟩∣2≥1−δ2.\lambda\ge w\quad\Longrightarrow\quad |\langle T|\mathcal S_L|s\rangle|^2\ge1-\delta^2.λ≥w⟹∣⟨T∣SL​∣s⟩∣2≥1−δ2.

The draft also states that www decreases as the odd length increases, the sufficient length bound L≥log⁡(2/δ)/λL\ge\log(2/\delta)/\sqrt\lambdaL≥log(2/δ)/λ​ of Eq. (3), and the nesting identity for success-probability functions in Eq. (18) Yoder, Low, and Chuang (2014), pp. 2, 4.

Significance

The exact formula gives a sequence that can be selected from a lower bound on the target overlap and a chosen failure tolerance. Increasing its length extends the interval on which the tolerance is met; an already adequate state therefore stays within the bounded-error regime at greater odd lengths. The sufficient length bound records the quadratic query scaling in the overlap parameter. The nesting identity shows that the same family of probability functions is closed under the paper's specified composition of tolerances Yoder, Low, and Chuang (2014), pp. 2, 4.

The mathematical result is proved in the 2014 paper. This mission asks for machine-checked proofs of its exact operator-level equality and the cited intermediate identities; the statements here are currently draft targets, not already machine-checked results. A completed development would leave reusable finite-dimensional phase-reflection and Chebyshev tools for subsequent amplitude-amplification arguments. The paper's oracle implementation is separate from these operator identities Yoder, Low, and Chuang (2014), Fig. 2.

Difficulty

The obvious idea of repeating a fixed phase pair produces the familiar Grover oscillation. Adjusting phases removes that simple repeated-power description, while the target amplitude must still be controlled exactly across all allowed overlaps. A proof must keep the complex phase conventions and multiplication order aligned with the Chebyshev expression. The fractional-order parameter also lies outside the usual cosine formula's interval when δ<1\delta<1δ<1; replacing the polynomial by a clamped arccosine expression changes the target formula. The unnumbered Chebyshev-amplitude assertion after Eq. (15) is the central algebraic gap left for formalization Yoder, Low, and Chuang (2014), p. 3.

Formalization scope

States are functions Fin N → ℂ, and operators are complex N × N matrices. Inner products conjugate the first vector. The theorem binds λ\lambdaλ to the squared target overlap and requires both states to have norm one; it does not take an unrelated free success parameter. The goal permits every NNN for which its hypotheses can hold, and every l≥0l\ge0l≥0. The rotation milestones use Fin 2 with index 000 for ∣tˉ⟩|\bar t\rangle∣tˉ⟩ and index 111 for ∣t⟩|t\rangle∣t⟩. The operator STS_TST​ has the same rank-one projector as the paper's phase-adjusted StS_tSt​. Matrix exponentials define the rotations, and TLT_LTL​ is Mathlib's polynomial, evaluated even outside [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1].

The scope assumes 0<δ≤10<\delta\le10<δ≤1. At δ=0\delta=0δ=0, the displayed expression involves division by zero and the paper treats its π/3\pi/3π/3 limit separately. The inverse cotangent is π/2−arctan⁡\pi/2-\arctanπ/2−arctan, a branch whose changes by π\piπ leave the reflection phases unchanged. The product order is fixed by the recursion defining SL\mathcal S_LSL​. The mission formalizes Eqs. (6)–(7) as operators; the ancilla and oracle gates of Fig. 2 are outside this mission. The goal retains the full equality and cannot be reduced to the easier lower bound PL≥1−δ2P_L\ge1-\delta^2PL​≥1−δ2.

The milestone for printed Eq. (12) uses a free output ZZZ rotation and a unit global phase. The printed outer rotations do not give the claimed state for the stated phases; this corrected form preserves the coordinate magnitudes needed for Eq. (1). The milestone for Eq. (15) states the displayed amplitude recurrence but does not restate the page's incompatible intermediate bh′b'_hbh′​ sentence. These corrections are identified in the item descriptions and moderation notes. Contributions proving the reduction, phase identities, amplitude recurrence, Chebyshev relation, or the final equality are all within scope Yoder, Low, and Chuang (2014), p. 3.

Selected references

  • Theodore J. Yoder, Guang Hao Low, and Isaac L. Chuang, Fixed-point quantum search with an optimal number of queries, Physical Review Letters 113, 210501 (2014). arXiv:1409.3305v2. This mission cites the pinned preprint's page and equation numbers.
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Quantum InformationTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

A Grand Unification of Quantum Algorithms: Phase Estimation by QSVT Errs by Less Than 2^{−n}, and Meets the Δ-Region Only at Iteration n − 1, When Δ < 2(cos(3π/16) − 1/√2)Research Paper

Motivation

Phase estimation asks: given access to a unitary UUU and an eigenvector ∣u⟩|u\rangle∣u⟩ with U∣u⟩=e2πiφ∣u⟩U|u\rangle = e^{2\pi i\varphi}|u\rangleU∣u⟩=e2πiφ∣u⟩, determine φ∈[0,1)\varphi \in [0,1)φ∈[0,1). It is the subroutine behind Shor's factoring algorithm, quantum chemistry energy estimation, and amplitude estimation, and is one of the standard sources of quantum speed-up.

Martyn, Rossi, Tan and Chuang, A Grand Unification of Quantum Algorithms (PRX Quantum 2, 040203, 2021), present search, phase estimation and Hamiltonian simulation as instances of one primitive, the quantum singular value transformation (QSVT) of Gilyén, Su, Low and Wiebe (arXiv:1806.01838, STOC 2019). Most of the paper's numbered results restate QSVT theory from earlier work. Its own proved content is Appendix B: the analysis of phase estimation by QSVT (Section V, Algorithm 3), a bit-by-bit binary search in the spirit of Kitaev's iterative phase estimation, where each bit is read by applying a sign function to a singular value. A closely related QSVT phase-estimation algorithm was found independently by Rall (arXiv:2103.09717).

This mission formalizes that analysis: the exact-arithmetic correctness of the bit search (Theorems 6 and 7), and its robustness when the sign function is only approximated (Theorem 8).

Setting

Fix a unitary UUU, an eigenvector ∣u⟩|u\rangle∣u⟩, and the phase 0≤φ<10 \le \varphi < 10≤φ<1. Write 0.φ[j+1:]=0.φj+1φj+2…0.\varphi_{[j+1:]} = 0.\varphi_{j+1}\varphi_{j+2}\ldots0.φ[j+1:]​=0.φj+1​φj+2​… for the fractional part of 2jφ2^j\varphi2jφ.

For j∈Nj \in \mathbb Nj∈N and θ∈R\theta \in \mathbb Rθ∈R, the matrix Aj(θ)=12(I+e−2πiθU2j)A_j(\theta) = \tfrac12(I + e^{-2\pi i\theta}U^{2^j})Aj​(θ)=21​(I+e−2πiθU2j) acts on ∣u⟩|u\rangle∣u⟩ with singular value

σj(θ)=∣cos⁡(π(2jφ−θ))∣=∣cos⁡(π(0.φ[j+1:]−θ))∣.(64–65)\sigma^j(\theta) = \bigl|\cos\bigl(\pi(2^j\varphi - \theta)\bigr)\bigr| = \bigl|\cos\bigl(\pi(0.\varphi_{[j+1:]} - \theta)\bigr)\bigr|. \tag{64–65}σj(θ)=​cos(π(2jφ−θ))​=​cos(π(0.φ[j+1:]​−θ))​.(64–65)

The procedure keeps a binary fraction θ\thetaθ, initially 000, and runs iterations j=n−1,n−2,…,0j = n-1, n-2, \ldots, 0j=n−1,n−2,…,0 for a positive integer nnn. Iteration jjj halves θ\thetaθ, evaluates the sign function Θ(1/2−x)\Theta(1/\sqrt2 - x)Θ(1/2​−x) at x=σj(θ)x = \sigma^j(\theta)x=σj(θ) through QSVT, measures one ancilla bit bjb_jbj​, and sets the first binary digit of θ\thetaθ to bjb_jbj​:

θj=12θj+1+12bj,θn=0.\theta_j = \tfrac12\theta_{j+1} + \tfrac12 b_j, \qquad \theta_n = 0.θj​=21​θj+1​+21​bj​,θn​=0.

An additional j=0j = 0j=0 iteration then sets the units digit b0′b_0'b0′​, and the output is θ=b0′+θ0\theta = b_0' + \theta_0θ=b0′​+θ0​.

The ideal measurement returns b=1b = 1b=1 when σ<1/2\sigma < 1/\sqrt2σ<1/2​ and b=0b = 0b=0 when σ>1/2\sigma > 1/\sqrt2σ>1/2​. In practice the sign function is replaced by a polynomial that is reliable only outside the Δ-region [12−Δ2,12+Δ2]\bigl[\tfrac1{\sqrt2} - \tfrac\Delta2, \tfrac1{\sqrt2} + \tfrac\Delta2\bigr][2​1​−2Δ​,2​1​+2Δ​]; inside it either bit may be returned.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8 (p. 17)

If

0≤Δ<2(cos⁡3π16−12)≈0.25,0 \le \Delta < 2\Bigl(\cos\frac{3\pi}{16} - \frac1{\sqrt2}\Bigr) \approx 0.25,0≤Δ<2(cos163π​−2​1​)≈0.25,

then in every run of the procedure, the singular value σj\sigma^jσj can fall in the Δ-region only at the first iteration j=n−1j = n-1j=n−1, and the output satisfies

∣θ−φ∣<2−n.|\theta - \varphi| < 2^{-n}.∣θ−φ∣<2−n.

Milestones

  • (64)–(65), p. 15: the singular value and singular vectors of Aj(θ)A_j(\theta)Aj​(θ) on ∣u⟩|u\rangle∣u⟩.
  • Lemma 11 and Theorem 6 (pp. 27, 16): for an nnn-bit φ\varphiφ and the exact sign function, θj=0.φ[j+1:]\theta_j = 0.\varphi_{[j+1:]}θj​=0.φ[j+1:]​, so the loop ends with θ=φ\theta = \varphiθ=φ.
  • Lemma 12 and Theorem 7 (pp. 28, 16): otherwise θj\theta_jθj​ is an (n−j)(n-j)(n−j)-digit rounding of 0.φ[j+1:]0.\varphi_{[j+1:]}0.φ[j+1:]​ up to a carry, with error ≤2j−n−1\le 2^{j-n-1}≤2j−n−1, and the output satisfies ∣θ−φ∣≤2−n−1|\theta - \varphi| \le 2^{-n-1}∣θ−φ∣≤2−n−1.
  • (B14), p. 30: membership of ∣cos⁡(πx)∣|\cos(\pi x)|∣cos(πx)∣ in the Δ-region in terms of two arccos intervals for π∣x∣\pi|x|π∣x∣.
  • (B15), (B16) ⟺ (B21), pp. 30–31: the arccos condition is equivalent to the explicit threshold on Δ\DeltaΔ.
  • Lemma 13, p. 30, and its base step (B17)–(B20), pp. 30–31: the Δ-region can only be met at iteration n−1n-1n−1, and an error there does not propagate.

A companion item states (68): the 2N×2N2N \times 2N2N×2N matrix Wj(θ)W_j(\theta)Wj​(θ) of Figure 10 is unitary and block-encodes Aj(θ)A_j(\theta)Aj​(θ).

Significance

Theorem 8 is what makes phase estimation by QSVT implementable: a sign function cannot be realized exactly by a polynomial, and the theorem shows that a polynomial approximation which fails on a band of width about 0.250.250.25 around 1/21/\sqrt21/2​ costs at most one bit of accuracy, and only at one iteration. Combined with the per-iteration failure probability analysis (71)–(72), it yields the paper's claim that O(nlog⁡(n/δ))O(n\log(n/\delta))O(nlog(n/δ)) queries give an nnn-bit estimate with probability 1−δ1-\delta1−δ.

On the formal side, the paper proves these results in Appendix B by case analysis on binary digits with carries. No machine-checked version of the analysis exists on the platform, and no QSVT-based phase-estimation result has been formalized elsewhere to the curators' knowledge. The mission separates the deterministic correctness of the bit search from the quantum machinery, so the combinatorial core can be checked independently of QSVT itself.

Difficulty

The obvious argument tracks the digits of φ\varphiφ one at a time, and it works for an nnn-bit phase. It fails when φ\varphiφ has more than nnn digits: the sign function rounds rather than truncates, so a bit can be set to 111 when the true digit is 000, carries propagate, and the invariant must be a rounding statement with a carry bit r~j\tilde r_jr~j​ (Lemma 12's nine-case induction). The final bit can carry into the units place, which is why the additional j=0j = 0j=0 iteration exists.

For Theorem 8, the natural first idea, that a bit error makes all later bits unreliable, is false; the content is that after an error at j=n−1j = n-1j=n−1 the distance ∣0.φ[j+1:]−θ∣|0.\varphi_{[j+1:]} - \theta|∣0.φ[j+1:]​−θ∣ stays a fixed amount away from the Δ-region at every later iteration. Turning this into the threshold requires precise bounds on arccos⁡\arccosarccos near 1/21/\sqrt21/2​.

Formalization scope

Everything is stated in Lean 4 with Mathlib, over R\mathbb RR, in the namespace QSVTPhaseEst.BitSearch. The conventions:

  • 0≤φ<10 \le \varphi < 10≤φ<1, n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, Δ≥0\Delta \ge 0Δ≥0 in every item; bits are Bool; 0.φ[j+1:]0.\varphi_{[j+1:]}0.φ[j+1:]​ is Int.fract (2^j * φ).
  • "φ\varphiφ is an nnn-bit number" (n≥mn \ge mn≥m) is φ=k/2n\varphi = k/2^nφ=k/2n for some k∈Nk \in \mathbb Nk∈N; "n<mn < mn<m, including m=∞m = \inftym=∞" is its negation.
  • The outcome rule is the only place the measurement enters: below the Δ-region the bit is 111, above it the bit is 000, inside it (including ties at Δ=0\Delta = 0Δ=0) either bit may occur. Every theorem quantifies over all bit sequences satisfying this rule. The exact sign function of Theorems 6 and 7 is the rule with Δ=0\Delta = 0Δ=0.
  • The additional j=0j = 0j=0 iteration is encoded as Appendix B 1 b (p. 29) analyses it: the general step applied to 0.φ0φ1…=φ/20.\varphi_0\varphi_1\ldots = \varphi/20.φ0​φ1​…=φ/2 with θ\thetaθ halved, singular value ∣cos⁡(π(φ−θ0)/2)∣|\cos(\pi(\varphi - \theta_0)/2)|∣cos(π(φ−θ0​)/2)∣. The literal reading of Algorithm 3, line 9 makes Theorem 7 false on the paper's own example φ=0.11101012\varphi = 0.1110101_2φ=0.11101012​, n=2n = 2n=2.
  • Theorem 8's bound is stated for every run, as Algorithm 3's Output claims; runs with an error at iteration n−1n-1n−1 are the printed case, runs without one are covered by Theorems 6 and 7. Its first part also covers the additional iteration.
  • (B14) assumes Δ≤2−2\Delta \le 2 - \sqrt2Δ≤2−2​ and ∣x∣≤1|x| \le 1∣x∣≤1, which keep the arccos arguments in [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1].

A formalization in which the outcome rule mentions φ\varphiφ, its digits or its rounding, in which σj\sigma^jσj is written through the digits of φ\varphiφ, or in which the output is defined as a rounding of φ\varphiφ, would make the theorems circular; none of these is used.

Not formalized: QSP and QSVT themselves (Theorems 1–4, 9, 10; Theorem 1 is already an open goal on the platform), the polynomial Pϵ,ΔPEP^{\mathrm{PE}}_{\epsilon,\Delta}Pϵ,ΔPE​ of (69), the ϵ\epsilonϵ-error probability analysis (71)–(72), and the runtime. Contributions of reusable lemmas on binary roundings (Int.fract of 2jφ2^j\varphi2jφ, nearest dyadic rounding with carry) and on arccos⁡\arccosarccos near 1/21/\sqrt21/2​ are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. M. Martyn, Z. M. Rossi, A. K. Tan, I. L. Chuang, A Grand Unification of Quantum Algorithms, PRX Quantum 2, 040203, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.02859 (v5 is the version formalized)
  • A. Gilyén, Y. Su, G. H. Low, N. Wiebe, Quantum singular value transformation and beyond: exponential improvements for quantum matrix arithmetics, STOC 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.01838
  • P. Rall, Faster coherent quantum algorithms for phase, energy, and amplitude estimation, Quantum 5, 566, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.09717
  • A. Yu. Kitaev, Quantum measurements and the Abelian Stabilizer Problem, 1995. https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9511026
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ProbabilityRandom Matrix TheoryStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Change-Point Detection in Dynamic Networks with Missing Links II: At a Known Time the Matrix CUSUM Test Has Level α and Type II Error ≤ β Above Energy 4√2(1+ϵ)(ω_n/T)^{1/2} + C log(n/(α∧β))/√TResearch Paper

Motivation

Networks observed over time, such as communication graphs, contact networks and financial exposure graphs, often change structure abruptly. Change-point detection asks whether the law of the network changed during the observation window. In practice not every pair of nodes is observed at every time: links are missing because of sampling, privacy or measurement failure. Enikeeva and Klopp (arXiv:2106.14470, published in Operations Research, 2025) give the minimax detection boundary for this problem in a sparse inhomogeneous random graph model with missing links, for a change at a known time and at an unknown time.

This mission formalizes the upper bound at a known time (their Theorem 1): a test based on the spectral norm of a matrix-valued CUSUM statistic has level α\alphaα and type II error at most β\betaβ as soon as the change is a constant multiple of (ωn/T)1/2(\omega_n/T)^{1/2}(ωn​/T)1/2 plus a logarithmic term. The companion missions of this series formalize the matching lower bound (Theorem 2) and the unknown-time test (Theorem 3).

Setting

There are nnn vertices and TTT snapshots. At time ttt the network has a symmetric, zero-diagonal connection-probability matrix Θt∈[0,1]n×n\Theta^t\in[0,1]^{n\times n}Θt∈[0,1]n×n, and each pair i<ji<ji<j is sampled independently with probability Πij>0\Pi_{ij}>0Πij​>0, where the sampling matrix Π\PiΠ is symmetric with Πii=1\Pi_{ii}=1Πii​=1. What is observed is Yt∈{0,1}n×nY^t\in\{0,1\}^{n\times n}Yt∈{0,1}n×n, symmetric with zero diagonal, whose entries YijtY^t_{ij}Yijt​, i<ji<ji<j, are independent Bernoulli variables with success probability (Π⊙Θt)ij(\Pi\odot\Theta^t)_{ij}(Π⊙Θt)ij​, independent over ttt; ⊙\odot⊙ is the entrywise product.

The column-wise norm ∥M∥1,∞=max⁡j∑i∣Mij∣\|M\|_{1,\infty}=\max_j\sum_i|M_{ij}|∥M∥1,∞​=maxj​∑i​∣Mij​∣ measures the largest expected observed degree. The null class is

Sn(ωn)={(Θ,Π): Θ∈Cn0, Π∈Cn, ∥Π⊙Θ∥1,∞≤ωn}.\mathcal S_n(\omega_n)=\{(\Theta,\Pi):\ \Theta\in\mathcal C^0_n,\ \Pi\in\mathcal C_n,\ \|\Pi\odot\Theta\|_{1,\infty}\le\omega_n\}.Sn​(ωn​)={(Θ,Π): Θ∈Cn0​, Π∈Cn​, ∥Π⊙Θ∥1,∞​≤ωn​}.

A change at time τ∈{1,…,T−1}\tau\in\{1,\dots,T-1\}τ∈{1,…,T−1} replaces Θb=Θ0\Theta^b=\Theta^0Θb=Θ0 by Θa=Θ0+ΔΘτ\Theta^a=\Theta^0+\Delta\Theta^\tauΘa=Θ0+ΔΘτ after time τ\tauτ. With q(x)=x(1−x)q(x)=\sqrt{x(1-x)}q(x)=x(1−x)​ and the spectral norm ∥⋅∥2→2\|\cdot\|_{2\to2}∥⋅∥2→2​, the change-point energy is q(τ/T)∥Π⊙ΔΘτ∥2→2q(\tau/T)\|\Pi\odot\Delta\Theta^\tau\|_{2\to2}q(τ/T)∥Π⊙ΔΘτ∥2→2​, and the alternative class Wn,Tτ(ωn,r)\mathcal W^\tau_{n,T}(\omega_n,r)Wn,Tτ​(ωn​,r) collects the pairs in Sn(ωn)\mathcal S_n(\omega_n)Sn​(ωn​) whose energy is at least rrr.

A test ψ\psiψ maps the data to {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}. Its type I error α(ψ)\alpha(\psi)α(ψ) is the supremum over the null class of the probability of rejecting, and its type II error β(ψ,R)\beta(\psi,R)β(ψ,R) is the supremum over Wn,Tτ(ωn,R)\mathcal W^\tau_{n,T}(\omega_n,R)Wn,Tτ​(ωn​,R) of the probability of accepting.

The Matrix CUSUM is

ZT(t)=t(T−t)T(1t∑s=1tYs−1T−t∑s=t+1TYs),1≤t≤T−1,Z_T(t)=\sqrt{\frac{t(T-t)}{T}}\Big(\frac1t\sum_{s=1}^tY^s-\frac1{T-t}\sum_{s=t+1}^TY^s\Big),\qquad 1\le t\le T-1,ZT​(t)=Tt(T−t)​​(t1​s=1∑t​Ys−T−t1​s=t+1∑T​Ys),1≤t≤T−1,

and the test at the known time τ\tauτ is

ψn,Tτ(Y)=1{∥ZT(τ)∥2→2>Hα,n},Hα,n=22(1+ϵ)ωn+Cϵlog⁡(2n/α),\psi^\tau_{n,T}(Y)=\mathbf 1\big\{\|Z_T(\tau)\|_{2\to2}>H_{\alpha,n}\big\},\qquad H_{\alpha,n}=2\sqrt2(1+\epsilon)\sqrt{\omega_n}+C_\epsilon\log(2n/\alpha),ψn,Tτ​(Y)=1{∥ZT​(τ)∥2→2​>Hα,n​},Hα,n​=22​(1+ϵ)ωn​​+Cϵ​log(2n/α),

with ϵ∈(0,1/2]\epsilon\in(0,1/2]ϵ∈(0,1/2] and CϵC_\epsilonCϵ​ a constant depending only on ϵ\epsilonϵ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

For every ϵ∈(0,1/2]\epsilon\in(0,1/2]ϵ∈(0,1/2] there are constants Cϵ>0C_\epsilon>0Cϵ​>0 and CCC, depending only on ϵ\epsilonϵ, such that for all n≥1n\ge1n≥1, 1≤τ≤T−11\le\tau\le T-11≤τ≤T−1, ωn≥0\omega_n\ge0ωn​≥0 and α,β∈(0,1)\alpha,\beta\in(0,1)α,β∈(0,1): if

Rn,τ≥42(1+ϵ)(ωnT)1/2+CT1/2log⁡(nα∧β),R_{n,\tau}\ge4\sqrt2(1+\epsilon)\Big(\frac{\omega_n}{T}\Big)^{1/2}+\frac{C}{T^{1/2}}\log\Big(\frac{n}{\alpha\wedge\beta}\Big),Rn,τ​≥42​(1+ϵ)(Tωn​​)1/2+T1/2C​log(α∧βn​),

then α(ψn,Tτ)≤α\alpha(\psi^\tau_{n,T})\le\alphaα(ψn,Tτ​)≤α and β(ψn,Tτ,Rn,τ)≤β\beta(\psi^\tau_{n,T},R_{n,\tau})\le\betaβ(ψn,Tτ​,Rn,τ​)≤β. The constants are existential and are not pinned to particular values; the statement asserts the shape of the boundary.

Milestones

  1. Display (7): ZT(t)=−μTτ(t) Π⊙ΔΘτ+ξ(t)Z_T(t)=-\mu^\tau_T(t)\,\Pi\odot\Delta\Theta^\tau+\xi(t)ZT​(t)=−μTτ​(t)Π⊙ΔΘτ+ξ(t), with ξ(t)\xi(t)ξ(t) the CUSUM of the centred observations, and max⁡tμTτ(t)=μTτ(τ)=T q(τ/T)\max_t\mu^\tau_T(t)=\mu^\tau_T(\tau)=\sqrt T\,q(\tau/T)maxt​μTτ​(t)=μTτ​(τ)=T​q(τ/T).
  2. Proposition 11 (Bandeira and van Handel): for a symmetric m×mm\times mm×m matrix WWW with independent centred entries bounded by σ∗\sigma_*σ∗​,
P{∥W∥2→2≥22(1+ϵ)σ+x}≤m e−x2/(cϵσ∗2).\mathbb P\{\|W\|_{2\to2}\ge2\sqrt2(1+\epsilon)\sigma+x\}\le m\,e^{-x^2/(c_\epsilon\sigma_*^2)}.P{∥W∥2→2​≥22​(1+ϵ)σ+x}≤me−x2/(cϵ​σ∗2​).
  1. Lemma 12: with probability larger than 1−δ1-\delta1−δ,
∥ξ(t)∥2→2≤22(1+ϵ)t(T−t)T[1t2∑s≤t∥Bs∥1,∞+1(T−t)2∑s>t∥Bs∥1,∞]1/2+Cϵlog⁡2nδ.\|\xi(t)\|_{2\to2}\le2\sqrt2(1+\epsilon)\sqrt{\tfrac{t(T-t)}{T}}\Big[\tfrac1{t^2}\sum_{s\le t}\|B^s\|_{1,\infty}+\tfrac1{(T-t)^2}\sum_{s>t}\|B^s\|_{1,\infty}\Big]^{1/2}+C_\epsilon\log\tfrac{2n}{\delta}.∥ξ(t)∥2→2​≤22​(1+ϵ)Tt(T−t)​​[t21​s≤t∑​∥Bs∥1,∞​+(T−t)21​s>t∑​∥Bs∥1,∞​]1/2+Cϵ​logδ2n​.
  1. Lemma 3: the test has type I error at most α\alphaα.
  2. Lemma 4: under Rn,τ≥42(1+ϵ)(ωn/T)1/2+CϵT−1/2(log⁡(2n/α)+log⁡(2n/β))R_{n,\tau}\ge4\sqrt2(1+\epsilon)(\omega_n/T)^{1/2}+C_\epsilon T^{-1/2}(\log(2n/\alpha)+\log(2n/\beta))Rn,τ​≥42​(1+ϵ)(ωn​/T)1/2+Cϵ​T−1/2(log(2n/α)+log(2n/β)) the type II error is at most β\betaβ.

Significance

Theorem 1 is the upper half of the minimax detection boundary for a change at a known time. Together with Theorem 2 of the same paper (a lower bound of order (ωn/T)1/2(\omega_n/T)^{1/2}(ωn​/T)1/2) it shows that, up to the logarithmic term, the CUSUM test in spectral norm is rate-optimal, and that missing links enter only through the observed degree bound ωn=max⁡∥Π⊙Θ∥1,∞\omega_n=\max\|\Pi\odot\Theta\|_{1,\infty}ωn​=max∥Π⊙Θ∥1,∞​. The same noise bound (Lemma 12) drives the unknown-time test of Theorem 3.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version exists. Formalizing it produces a checked finite-sample statement with explicit leading constant 42(1+ϵ)4\sqrt2(1+\epsilon)42​(1+ϵ), a reusable formal Bernoulli network model with missing links, and, through Proposition 11, a formal statement of the Bandeira–van Handel tail bound, which is used well beyond change-point problems. The printed proof of Lemma 12 applies Proposition 11 after conditioning on the event {∥ξ(t)∥∞≤σ∗}\{\|\xi(t)\|_\infty\le\sigma_*\}{∥ξ(t)∥∞​≤σ∗​}, which destroys centring and independence; a complete proof needs a truncation argument that the paper does not give.

Difficulty

Under the null the CUSUM is pure noise, so both errors reduce to a high-probability bound on ∥ξ(t)∥2→2\|\xi(t)\|_{2\to2}∥ξ(t)∥2→2​ whose leading term is exactly 22(1+ϵ)ωn2\sqrt2(1+\epsilon)\sqrt{\omega_n}22​(1+ϵ)ωn​​ after rescaling. Matrix Bernstein inequalities give a bound with an extra log⁡n\sqrt{\log n}logn​ factor on the leading term, which is too weak for the stated threshold; the sharp constant requires the Bandeira–van Handel inequality, whose proof goes through moment comparisons for random matrices with non-identically distributed entries. The entries of ξ(t)\xi(t)ξ(t) are themselves sums over time with coefficients up to order T\sqrt TT​ in aggregate, so the boundedness hypothesis of Proposition 11 does not hold directly and must be recovered with probability bounds. Finally, the level and the power must hold for the same threshold constant CϵC_\epsilonCϵ​, uniformly in nnn, TTT, τ\tauτ and the parameters.

Formalization scope

An observation is a function from the TTT snapshots and the pairs i<ji<ji<j to Booleans; time is 0-based in Lean (snapshot sss is the paper's s+1s+1s+1). The latent adjacency and sampling matrices are integrated out: only YYY is modelled, by its exact product-Bernoulli law, and probabilities are finite sums over the finite observation space, so every test is measurable. Tests are Boolean-valued (true rejects). The sampling class carries the paper's standing assumptions Πii=1\Pi_{ii}=1Πii​=1 and Πij>0\Pi_{ij}>0Πij​>0. Errors are real suprema over sets contained in [0,1][0,1][0,1]; an empty alternative class has type II error 000. The spectral norm is the published HighDimProb.RandomMatrices.matrixOpNorm. Proposition 11 alone uses measure theory, with independence of the entries on and above the diagonal and an added (implicit) m≥1m\ge1m≥1.

Disclosed readings: (24) prints κn\kappa_nκn​, which is read as ωn\omega_nωn​ as in the proof; Lemma 12's matrices are the symmetric, zero-diagonal centred observations of the model; Lemmas 3 and 4 take "CϵC_\epsilonCϵ​ is a constant of Lemma 12" (with Cϵ>0C_\epsilon>0Cϵ​>0) as a hypothesis, stated as a predicate. The goal does not assume that predicate: it asserts the existence of CϵC_\epsilonCϵ​ and CCC, both chosen before nnn, TTT, τ\tauτ, ωn\omega_nωn​, α\alphaα, β\betaβ and RRR, so neither constant can be tuned to the instance, and tests range over all functions of the data. Choosing huge constants does not trivialize the goal, since for large TTT the energy condition is met by nonempty alternatives that the test must detect.

The development needs: the product-Bernoulli law of the network, the Matrix CUSUM algebra, the Bandeira–van Handel inequality, and a truncation argument for Lemma 12. The Setting and Proposition 11 are reusable for the unknown-time test and for spectral methods on random graphs. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative routes to Lemma 12, are welcome.

Selected references

  • F. Enikeeva and O. Klopp, Change-point detection in dynamic networks with missing links, Operations Research, 2025; arXiv:2106.14470v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.14470
  • A. S. Bandeira and R. van Handel, Sharp nonasymptotic bounds on the norm of random matrices with independent entries, Annals of Probability 44(4), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOP1025
  • Yu. I. Ingster and I. A. Suslina, Nonparametric Goodness-of-Fit Testing under Gaussian Models, Springer, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-21580-8
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Bandit AlgorithmsMachine LearningOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal No-regret Learning in Repeated First-price Auctions 4: Arm Elimination with Graph Feedback and Cross Learning Has Regret Õ(T ∧ √(αMT) ∧ √(KT)) with High ProbabilityResearch Paper

Motivation

In many sequential decision problems, playing one action reveals the outcome of other actions too. A bidder in a first-price auction who bids bbb and sees the winning price learns whether every bid at or above that price would have won. A recommender that shows one item learns something about related items. Two kinds of side information recur. Graph feedback across actions: playing action aaa also reveals the rewards of the out-neighbours of aaa in a directed graph GGG (Mannor and Shamir 2011; Alon, Cesa-Bianchi, Dekel and Koren 2015). Cross learning across contexts: the reward of the chosen action is revealed under every context, not only the current one (Balseiro, Golrezaei, Mahdian, Mirrokni and Schneider 2019).

Han, Zhou and Weissman (arXiv:2003.09795v7) reduce learning to bid in repeated first-price auctions to a contextual bandit with both structures. Their §3 starts from a simple arm-elimination algorithm that exploits graph feedback (Algorithm 1) and extends it to contexts with cross learning (Algorithm 2). This mission formalizes that layer: the algorithms, their concentration lemma, and their high-probability regret bounds (Theorems 3 and 4).

Timeline:

  • 2011: Mannor and Shamir introduce bandits with side observations given by a graph.
  • 2015: Alon, Cesa-Bianchi, Dekel and Koren show that for adversarial bandits with a directed feedback graph the minimax regret is Θ~(αT)\tilde\Theta(\sqrt{\alpha T})Θ~(αT​), with α\alphaα the independence number; their Lemma 8 bounds the weak domination number by 50αlog⁡n50\alpha\log n50αlogn.
  • 2016–2020: Cohen, Hazan and Koren, and Lykouris, Tardos and Wali, give elimination-type algorithms for stochastic bandits with graph feedback.
  • 2019: Balseiro et al. introduce cross learning and obtain O~(KT)\tilde O(\sqrt{KT})O~(KT​) regret.
  • 2020–2024: Han, Zhou and Weissman obtain O~(min⁡{αM,K}T)\tilde O(\sqrt{\min\{\alpha M, K\}T})O~(min{αM,K}T​) for both structures together (this mission) and use it for first-price auctions.

Setting

A stochastic contextual bandit with graph feedback and cross learning (Definition 2) has a horizon TTT, contexts C=[M]\mathcal C = [M]C=[M], actions A=[K]\mathcal A = [K]A=[K], a joint reward law PPP supported on [0,1]M×K[0,1]^{M\times K}[0,1]M×K with mean rewards Rc,aR_{c,a}Rc,a​, and a directed graph G=(A,E)G = (\mathcal A, E)G=(A,E) without self-loops. In round ttt a context ctc_tct​ is revealed, the learner picks ata_tat​, nature draws rt=(rt,c,a)c,ar_t = (r_{t,c,a})_{c,a}rt​=(rt,c,a​)c,a​ iid from PPP, and the learner observes rt,c,ar_{t,c,a}rt,c,a​ for every c∈Cc \in \mathcal Cc∈C and every a∈It={at}∪{a:(at,a)∈E}a \in I_t = \{a_t\}\cup\{a : (a_t,a)\in E\}a∈It​={at​}∪{a:(at​,a)∈E}. The regret (5) is

RT(π)=∑t=1T(max⁡a∈ARct,a−Rct,at).R_T(\pi) = \sum_{t=1}^T\Big(\max_{a\in\mathcal A}R_{c_t,a} - R_{c_t,a_t}\Big).RT​(π)=t=1∑T​(a∈Amax​Rct​,a​−Rct​,at​​).

Definition 1 is the case M=1M = 1M=1, with regret (4). The independence number α\alphaα of GGG is the largest size of a set of actions with no edge between any two of them.

Algorithm 2 keeps for each context ccc an active set Aact,c\mathcal A_{\mathrm{act},c}Aact,c​ and a minimum count NcN_cNc​, and for each action aaa a count nan_ana​ shared by all contexts. In each round it plays an action of A0,ct={a∈Aact,ct:na=Nct}\mathcal A_{0,c_t} = \{a\in\mathcal A_{\mathrm{act},c_t} : n_a = N_{c_t}\}A0,ct​​={a∈Aact,ct​​:na​=Nct​​}, either of largest out-degree in the graph restricted to A0,ct\mathcal A_{0,c_t}A0,ct​​ (Option I) or of in-degree zero there (Option II, for DAGs). When every active action of context ccc has been observed more than NcN_cNc​ times, the active set drops the actions whose empirical reward falls below the best by more than 6log⁡(2T)log⁡(MKT/δ)/Nc6\sqrt{\log(2T)\log(MKT/\delta)/N_c}6log(2T)log(MKT/δ)/Nc​​. Algorithm 1 is the case M=1M = 1M=1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4

With probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, writing L=log⁡(2T)log⁡(MKT/δ)L = \log(2T)\log(MKT/\delta)L=log(2T)log(MKT/δ),

RT(π)≤T∧(K+24KTL)∧{50αM(log⁡K)2+24log⁡K50αMTLOption I,αM+24αMTLOption II, G a DAG,R_T(\pi)\le T\wedge\big(K+24\sqrt{KTL}\big)\wedge\begin{cases}50\alpha M(\log K)^2+24\log K\sqrt{50\alpha MTL} & \text{Option I},\\ \alpha M+24\sqrt{\alpha MTL} & \text{Option II, }G\text{ a DAG,}\end{cases}RT​(π)≤T∧(K+24KTL​)∧{50αM(logK)2+24logK50αMTL​αM+24αMTL​​Option I,Option II, G a DAG,​

for every context sequence and every tie-breaking rule.

Milestones

  • Lemma 1 (p. 13): with probability 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, ∣rˉat−Ra∣≤3log⁡(2T)log⁡(KT/δ)/nat|\bar r^t_a - R_a|\le 3\sqrt{\log(2T)\log(KT/\delta)/n^t_a}∣rˉat​−Ra​∣≤3log(2T)log(KT/δ)/nat​​ for all rounds and all observed actions of Algorithm 1.
  • Lemma 10 (p. 35): a directed graph on n≥2n\ge2n≥2 vertices with independence number α\alphaα has a weakly dominating set of size at most 50αlog⁡n50\alpha\log n50αlogn.
  • Theorem 3 (p. 13): the one-context bound T∧(50α(log⁡K)2+24log⁡K50αTlog⁡(2T)log⁡(KT/δ))T\wedge(50\alpha(\log K)^2+24\log K\sqrt{50\alpha T\log(2T)\log(KT/\delta)})T∧(50α(logK)2+24logK50αTlog(2T)log(KT/δ)​) (Option I), resp. T∧(α+24αTlog⁡(2T)log⁡(KT/δ))T\wedge(\alpha+24\sqrt{\alpha T\log(2T)\log(KT/\delta)})T∧(α+24αTlog(2T)log(KT/δ)​) (Option II).
  • Lemma 1, contextual form (p. 16): the same concentration for Algorithm 2, uniformly over contexts, with log⁡(MKT/δ)\log(MKT/\delta)log(MKT/δ).

Significance

Theorem 4 shows that one algorithm attains, up to logarithmic factors, the better of two regret rates: KT\sqrt{KT}KT​, available from cross learning alone, and αMT\sqrt{\alpha MT}αMT​, available from graph feedback alone. The paper then shows (Theorem 6) that with adversarial contexts nothing better than min⁡{αMT,KT,T2/3}\min\{\sqrt{\alpha MT},\sqrt{KT},T^{2/3}\}min{αMT​,KT​,T2/3} is possible, while with stochastic contexts and a partial order a variant reaches O~(T)\tilde O(\sqrt T)O~(T​) for first-price auctions. Algorithm 2 is the building block of that variant.

The results are proved in the paper; none is formalized. A formal development produces machine-checked versions of a concentration inequality with a random number of observations, of a domination bound for directed graphs, and of an elimination analysis with shared counts across contexts. Four printed statements need correction, and the formal statements record the corrected forms: the constant 333 in Theorem 4's second bound (the printed proof gives 242424); Lemma 10, which is false for n=1n = 1n=1 and for edgeless graphs as worded; Lemma 1, which fails for K=T=1K = T = 1K=T=1 and δ\deltaδ close to 111 (excluded by KT≥2KT \ge 2KT≥2); and the pseudocode of Algorithms 1–2, whose update Nc←Nc+1N_c \leftarrow N_c + 1Nc​←Nc​+1 can leave A0,c\mathcal A_{0,c}A0,c​ empty after an elimination (the formalization keeps the text's invariant Nc=min⁡a∈Aact,cnaN_c = \min_{a \in \mathcal A_{\mathrm{act},c}} n_aNc​=mina∈Aact,c​​na​, and coincides with the printed algorithm wherever the latter is defined).

Difficulty

The observations of an action are not a fixed sample: how often and when action aaa is revealed depends on earlier rewards through the algorithm's choices. A union bound with Hoeffding's inequality at a fixed sample size does not apply directly, and Lemma 1 needs a self-normalized martingale inequality.

For Option I, the obvious bound on how long it takes to observe every least-pulled action once more is ∣A0∣|\mathcal A_0|∣A0​∣ rounds, which gives only KT\sqrt{KT}KT​. Getting α\alphaα instead of KKK requires that a vertex of largest out-degree covers a 1/(50αlog⁡K)1/(50\alpha\log K)1/(50αlogK) fraction of the remaining vertices; this is the content of Lemma 10, a probabilistic-method bound that is not in Mathlib. For contexts, the per-context analyses must be combined while counts are shared, and the bound in KKK needs a per-action rather than a per-context accounting.

Formalization scope

  • Actions Fin K, contexts Fin M, rounds Fin T; paper round ttt is Lean index t−1t-1t−1. The feedback graph is a relation E with no self-loops; "independence number α\alphaα" is the hypothesis that every independent set has at most α\alphaα elements (all bounds increase in α\alphaα).
  • The reward law is a probability measure on Fin M → Fin K → ℝ carried by [0,1]M×K[0,1]^{M\times K}[0,1]M×K; rewards are iid across rounds (Measure.pi). The regret is the pseudo-regret with means Rc,a=∫rc,a dPR_{c,a}=\int r_{c,a}\,dPRc,a​=∫rc,a​dP.
  • "With probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ" is: the outer measure of the bad event under P⊗TP^{\otimes T}P⊗T is at most δ\deltaδ. The context sequence is fixed in advance (oblivious adversary); stochastic contexts independent of the rewards follow by conditioning.
  • "Break ties arbitrarily" is a tie-breaking rule that sees the round, the algorithm's state (including the learner's whole observation history) and the context; the theorems hold for every rule that picks a member of every nonempty set.
  • The minimum count NcN_cNc​ follows the text's definition Nc=min⁡a∈Aact,cnaN_c = \min_{a\in\mathcal A_{\mathrm{act},c}}n_aNc​=mina∈Aact,c​​na​. The printed update Nc←Nc+1N_c\leftarrow N_c+1Nc​←Nc​+1 can leave A0,c\mathcal A_{0,c}A0,c​ empty after an elimination (for example with edges a→ba\to ba→b and c→bc\to bc→b, when aaa and ccc are eliminated), where the printed algorithm is undefined. The formal algorithm agrees with the printed one wherever the latter is defined.
  • Lemma 1 quantifies over nat≥1n^t_a\ge1nat​≥1 and excludes K=T=1K = T = 1K=T=1, where it is false for δ\deltaδ close to 111.
  • Ruled out: replacing the three-way minimum by a single bound, restricting to a fixed tie-breaking rule, or to stochastic contexts.

Welcome contributions: the self-normalized inequality of de la Peña, Klass and Lai (Lemma 11), Lemma 10, invariants of Algorithm 2 (the active sets stay nonempty and contain an optimal action on the good event), and the deterministic regret accounting given the concentration event.

Selected references

  • Y. Han, Z. Zhou, T. Weissman, Optimal No-regret Learning in Repeated First-price Auctions, arXiv:2003.09795v7, 2024; Operations Research, 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.09795
  • N. Alon, N. Cesa-Bianchi, O. Dekel, T. Koren, Online Learning with Feedback Graphs: Beyond Bandits, COLT 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1502.07617
  • S. Mannor, O. Shamir, From Bandits to Experts: On the Value of Side-Observations, NeurIPS 2011. https://arxiv.org/abs/1106.2436
  • S. Balseiro, N. Golrezaei, M. Mahdian, V. Mirrokni, J. Schneider, Contextual Bandits with Cross-Learning, NeurIPS 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.09582
  • V. H. de la Peña, M. J. Klass, T. L. Lai, Self-normalized processes: exponential inequalities, moment bounds and iterated logarithm laws, Annals of Probability 32(3A), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1214/009117904000000397
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Control TheoryOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

A Stationary Mean-Field Equilibrium Model of Irreversible Investment in a Two-Regime Economy: A Unique Stationary Mean-Field Equilibrium Exists and Invests at Regime-Dependent BarriersResearch Paper

Motivation

Industries in which capacity can be built but not sold back (energy generation, manufacturing, mining) are studied through irreversible investment models: a firm controls a nondecreasing investment process and trades the cost of capacity against uncertain future revenues. When many small firms compete, each firm's revenue depends on aggregate production through the market price, and the natural equilibrium notion is a mean-field equilibrium: every firm optimizes against a given aggregate, and the aggregate generated by the optimal behaviour is the one that was assumed.

Aïd, Basei and Ferrari (arXiv:2305.00541; Operations Research, 2025) add a macroeconomic regime to this picture. The economy switches between two states according to a continuous-time Markov chain, and volatilities and prices depend on the state. They prove that a stationary mean-field equilibrium exists and is unique, and that the equilibrium firm invests at regime-dependent barriers. Related stationary mean-field games with singular controls include Cao and Guo (Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 2022) and Cao, Dianetti and Ferrari (doi:10.1287/moor.2022.1323); the stability of the reflected regime-switching diffusions that appear in the equilibrium is due to Budhiraja and Liu (Mathematics of Operations Research, 2012).

Setting

A real Brownian motion BBB and an independent two-state Markov chain ε\varepsilonε with generator

P=(−p1p1p2−p2),π=(p2p1+p2,p1p1+p2),p1,p2∈(0,1),P=\begin{pmatrix}-p_1&p_1\\p_2&-p_2\end{pmatrix},\qquad \pi=\Big(\frac{p_2}{p_1+p_2},\frac{p_1}{p_1+p_2}\Big),\qquad p_1,p_2\in(0,1),P=(−p1​p2​​p1​−p2​​),π=(p1​+p2​p2​​,p1​+p2​p1​​),p1​,p2​∈(0,1),

live on a complete probability space; F\mathbb FF is their augmented natural filtration. A control III is an adapted, nonnegative, nondecreasing càdlàg process with I0−=0I_{0-}=0I0−​=0. The production capacity is

XtI=xexp⁡(−(δt+12∫0tσεs2ds)+∫0tσεsdBs+It),x>0,X^I_t=x\exp\Big(-\Big(\delta t+\tfrac12\int_0^t\sigma^2_{\varepsilon_s}ds\Big)+\int_0^t\sigma_{\varepsilon_s}dB_s+I_t\Big),\qquad x>0,XtI​=xexp(−(δt+21​∫0t​σεs​2​ds)+∫0t​σεs​​dBs​+It​),x>0,

and investment costs κ XtI∘dIt\kappa\,X^I_t\circ dI_tκXtI​∘dIt​, the integral (2.3) that charges a jump ΔIt\Delta I_tΔIt​ the amount Xt−I(eΔIt−1)X^I_{t-}(e^{\Delta I_t}-1)Xt−I​(eΔIt​−1). Given aggregate productions Q=(Q1,Q2)∈(0,∞)2Q=(Q_1,Q_2)\in(0,\infty)^2Q=(Q1​,Q2​)∈(0,∞)2, the price in regime iii is ηi=φi+ζiQi−α\eta_i=\varphi_i+\zeta_iQ_i^{-\alpha}ηi​=φi​+ζi​Qi−α​, and a firm starting from (x,i)(x,i)(x,i) maximizes, over the admissible set A\mathcal AA of (2.5),

J(x,i)(I,Q)=E(x,i)[∫0∞e−ρt(ηεtXtIdt−c(XtI)2dt−κXtI∘dIt)].J_{(x,i)}(I,Q)=\mathbb E_{(x,i)}\Big[\int_0^\infty e^{-\rho t}\big(\eta_{\varepsilon_t}X^I_tdt-c(X^I_t)^2dt-\kappa X^I_t\circ dI_t\big)\Big].J(x,i)​(I,Q)=E(x,i)​[∫0∞​e−ρt(ηεt​​XtI​dt−c(XtI​)2dt−κXtI​∘dIt​)].

A stationary mean-field equilibrium (Definition 2.2) is a pair (I⋆,Q⋆)(I^\star,Q^\star)(I⋆,Q⋆) such that I⋆I^\starI⋆ maximizes J(x,i)(⋅,Q⋆)J_{(x,i)}(\cdot,Q^\star)J(x,i)​(⋅,Q⋆) over A\mathcal AA, and the controlled pair (XtI⋆,εt)(X^{I^\star}_t,\varepsilon_t)(XtI⋆​,εt​) has a stationary distribution p∞p_\inftyp∞​ with

Qj⋆=1πj∫0∞x p∞(dx,j),j=1,2.Q^\star_j=\frac1{\pi_j}\int_0^\infty x\,p_\infty(dx,j),\qquad j=1,2.Qj⋆​=πj​1​∫0∞​xp∞​(dx,j),j=1,2.

The barrier control at levels a1,a2>0a_1,a_2>0a1​,a2​>0 is

It⋆=0∨sup⁡0≤s≤t(ln⁡(aεs/x)+∫0s(δ+12σεu2)du−∫0sσεudBu),I^\star_t=0\vee\sup_{0\le s\le t}\Big(\ln(a_{\varepsilon_s}/x)+\int_0^s\big(\delta+\tfrac12\sigma^2_{\varepsilon_u}\big)du-\int_0^s\sigma_{\varepsilon_u}dB_u\Big),It⋆​=0∨0≤s≤tsup​(ln(aεs​​/x)+∫0s​(δ+21​σεu​2​)du−∫0s​σεu​​dBu​),

the minimal investment keeping XtI⋆≥aεtX^{I^\star}_t\ge a_{\varepsilon_t}XtI⋆​≥aεt​​. Finally ϕi(θ)=12σi2θ2+(δ+12σi2)θ−pi\phi_i(\theta)=\frac12\sigma_i^2\theta^2+(\delta+\frac12\sigma_i^2)\theta-p_iϕi​(θ)=21​σi2​θ2+(δ+21​σi2​)θ−pi​ and ϕˉ=ϕ1ϕ2−p1p2\bar\phi=\phi_1\phi_2-p_1p_2ϕˉ​=ϕ1​ϕ2​−p1​p2​, whose negative roots are θ1<θ2<0\theta_1<\theta_2<0θ1​<θ2​<0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1

Under Assumption 2.1, ρ>2max⁡{σ12,σ22}\rho>2\max\{\sigma_1^2,\sigma_2^2\}ρ>2max{σ12​,σ22​}, and 1+θ2<01+\theta_2<01+θ2​<0: for every (x,i)(x,i)(x,i) there are barriers a⋆∈(0,∞)2a^\star\in(0,\infty)^2a⋆∈(0,∞)2 and Q⋆∈(0,∞)2Q^\star\in(0,\infty)^2Q⋆∈(0,∞)2 with

(I⋆(a⋆),Q⋆) a stationary MFE, and every stationary MFE (I,Q) has Q=Q⋆, I=I⋆ a.s.(I^\star(a^\star),Q^\star)\ \text{a stationary MFE, and every stationary MFE } (I,Q)\text{ has } Q=Q^\star,\ I=I^\star\ \text{a.s.}(I⋆(a⋆),Q⋆) a stationary MFE, and every stationary MFE (I,Q) has Q=Q⋆, I=I⋆ a.s.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Proposition 4.1: a C2C^2C2 solution of the free-boundary problem (4.10) is the value function, and the barrier control is optimal.
  2. Proposition 4.2 (corrected): the stopping problem (4.13) has threshold regions, a C1C^1C1 value satisfying (4.17), and an optimal hitting time.
  3. Proposition 4.3 ((4.18) corrected): V(x,i)=ki+∫aixv(y,i)dyV(x,i)=k_i+\int_{a_i}^xv(y,i)dyV(x,i)=ki​+∫ai​x​v(y,i)dy.
  4. The root structure of (4.29): θ1<θ2<0<θ4\theta_1<\theta_2<0<\theta_4θ1​<θ2​<0<θ4​ are the nonzero roots of ϕˉ\bar\phiϕˉ​.
  5. Proposition 4.6: the stationary distribution function of the capacity reflected at 0<a1<a20<a_1<a_20<a1​<a2​ is the explicit Π(ln⁡x,i)\Pi(\ln x,i)Π(lnx,i) of (4.32).
  6. Corollary 4.7: the regime-wise stationary means (4.35)–(4.36).
  7. Step 1 of the proof of Theorem 4.1: the stopping value and the barriers decrease in QQQ.
  8. Theorem 2.4(ii): P(X∞≥x)/xθ2→C>0\mathbb P(X_\infty\ge x)/x^{\theta_2}\to C>0P(X∞​≥x)/xθ2​→C>0.

Significance

The theorem gives a fully explicit equilibrium in a model with common noise in the form of regime switching: the barriers solve a finite system of algebraic equations, and the stationary distribution of capacities is known in closed form, with a Pareto tail of exponent θ2\theta_2θ2​. This makes comparative statics of market concentration and of the industry's response to regime persistence computable, which is what Section 3 of the paper does numerically.

The result is proved on paper; none of it is formalized. A complete development would yield a machine-checked verification theorem for regime-switching singular control, a checked link between singular control and optimal stopping, and a checked stationary law for a reflected regime-switching geometric Brownian motion. The printed text contains slips the formalization corrects in the open: the continuation and stopping regions of Proposition 4.2 are printed swapped, a term of (4.18) carries a spurious factor aia_iai​, and an integration by parts in the proof drops κ\kappaκ.

Difficulty

The obvious route, solving the variational inequality (4.8) by guessing a smooth-fit solution, fails here: the two regimes couple the ordinary differential equations, and the smooth-fit and smooth-pasting equations become nonlinear in both barriers at once, so existence and uniqueness of their solution cannot be read off. The regularity a verification argument needs (C2C^2C2 value, a threshold structure of the investment region) is therefore the hard part, and with regime switching it is not covered by the one-dimensional theory. The stationary law requires positive recurrence of a reflected diffusion with switching and the identification of its limit law. The fixed point Q=RQQ=\mathcal RQQ=RQ, where (RQ)j=πj−1∫0∞x p∞Q(dx,j)(\mathcal RQ)_j=\pi_j^{-1}\int_0^\infty x\,p^Q_\infty(dx,j)(RQ)j​=πj−1​∫0∞​xp∞Q​(dx,j) is built from the stationary law under the barrier control optimal for QQQ, needs continuity and a priori bounds of R\mathcal RR for existence, and a monotonicity argument for uniqueness; the printed uniqueness argument treats ordered pairs of fixed points explicitly, and uniqueness of the optimal control itself is not argued on the page but is part of the goal.

Formalization scope

Lean represents regimes as Fin 2 (index 0 is regime 1) and time as R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​. The model consists of: the chain, pinned by its closed-form transition function etPe^{tP}etP; Mathlib's IsBrownianReal for BBB; independence of BBB and ε\varepsilonε; the augmented filtration; M=∫σεdBM=\int\sigma_\varepsilon dBM=∫σε​dB through the platform relation EthierKurtz.HasBrownianItoIntegral, with continuous paths; the state (2.4); the integral (2.3), computed as ∫e−ρtYt d(eI)t\int e^{-\rho t}Y_t\,d(e^{I})_t∫e−ρtYt​d(eI)t​; the admissible set (2.5) with [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued expectations; JJJ of (2.6); Definition 2.2; and the barrier control (4.11). E(x,i)\mathbb E_{(x,i)}E(x,i)​ is the expectation conditioned on ε0=i\varepsilon_0=iε0​=i.

Standing constants: δ,σi,ρ,c,κ,φi,ζi>0\delta,\sigma_i,\rho,c,\kappa,\varphi_i,\zeta_i>0δ,σi​,ρ,c,κ,φi​,ζi​>0, pi∈(0,1)p_i\in(0,1)pi​∈(0,1), 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, min⁡iφi>ρ+δ\min_i\varphi_i>\rho+\deltamini​φi​>ρ+δ, and Assumption 2.1. The root condition 1+θ2<01+\theta_2<01+θ2​<0 is stated as "ϕˉ\bar\phiϕˉ​ has no root in [−1,0)[-1,0)[−1,0)". Pinned hypotheses, each disclosed in the item that carries it: the stationary distribution is the weak limit of the time-ttt laws; Qi>0Q_i>0Qi​>0; ai>0a_i>0ai​>0 wherever (4.11) is used; 0<a1<a20<a_1<a_20<a1​<a2​ for the §4.2 statements; (ρ+δ)κ<φi(\rho+\delta)\kappa<\varphi_i(ρ+δ)κ<φi​ on the goal; and "∼\sim∼" in Theorem 2.4(ii) as a ratio tending to a positive constant.

The equilibrium is defined from the model: optimality against every admissible control, including those with an initial jump, and the limit law of the actually controlled process. It is never defined through the paper's closed forms (4.23) or (4.32), which would make the goal a statement about formulas. The barrier control is the printed formula, not an arbitrary control keeping X≥aX\ge aX≥a.

Not formalized: Section 3 (numerics), Proposition 4.4 and Corollary 4.5 (semi-explicit value functions), the continuity part of Step 1, and Steps 2–4 of the proof as separate items. Contributions toward a general verification theorem for regime-switching singular control, regularity of regime-switching stopping problems, and stationary laws of reflected switching diffusions are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • R. Aïd, M. Basei, G. Ferrari, A Stationary Mean-Field Equilibrium Model of Irreversible Investment in a Two-Regime Economy, arXiv:2305.00541v1, 2023; Operations Research, 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.00541
  • A. Budhiraja, X. Liu, Stability of constrained Markov-modulated diffusions, Mathematics of Operations Research 37(4):626–653, 2012.
  • H. Cao, X. Guo, MFGs for partially reversible investment, Stochastic Processes and their Applications 150:995–1014, 2022.
  • H. Cao, J. Dianetti, G. Ferrari, Stationary discounted and ergodic mean-field games of singular controls, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2022.1323
  • G. Ferrari, N. Rodosthenous, Optimal control of debt-to-GDP ratio in an N-state regime switching economy, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 58(2):755–786, 2020.
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Stability of a Queue Fed by Scheduled Traffic at Critical Loading 2: With Finite-Variance Service Times, t^(-1/2) W(t) Converges in Distribution to σ Times Reflected Brownian Motion at Time 1Research Paper

Motivation

Appointment systems, airport runways, outpatient clinics and container terminals do not receive customers at random: each customer is scheduled at a fixed slot and arrives near it, early or late by a random amount. Queues fed by such scheduled traffic have been studied since Winsten (1959) and Mercer (1960). Kingman (1962) showed that, below critical load and for perturbations that are positive with finite mean, the heavy-traffic limit of the equilibrium waiting time of an S/G/1 queue ("S" for scheduled) is the same as for the D/G/1 queue with perfectly punctual arrivals. Araman and Glynn (2012) proved a functional central limit theorem for scheduled traffic when the perturbations have infinite mean, where fractional Brownian motion appears, and Araman, Chen, Glynn and Xia (2022) established properties of scheduled traffic, among them the decomposition and exponential moments used below, and showed that with Pareto-like perturbations the critically loaded S/D/1 workload grows without bound.

Araman and Glynn (arXiv:2212.04164, published as a technical note in Operations Research, 2025) settle the critically loaded case. This mission formalizes their diffusion limit (Corollary 1): when the mean service time equals the slot length, the workload grows like t\sqrt tt​ with an explicit reflected-Brownian limit, exactly as if arrivals were punctual. A companion mission formalizes their Theorem 1, the stability criterion for deterministic service times.

Setting

Fix h>0h>0h>0. Customer j∈Zj\in\mathbb Zj∈Z is scheduled at time jhjhjh and arrives at

Aj=jh+hU+ξj,A_j = jh + hU + \xi_j ,Aj​=jh+hU+ξj​,

where the perturbations ξj\xi_jξj​ are i.i.d. real random variables with E∣ξ0∣<∞\mathbb E|\xi_0|<\inftyE∣ξ0​∣<∞, and the uniform shift UUU is uniform on [0,1][0,1][0,1] and independent of ξ=(ξj)j∈Z\xi=(\xi_j)_{j\in\mathbb Z}ξ=(ξj​)j∈Z​; the shift makes the arrival point process time-stationary. The counting function is N(t)=#{j:Aj∈(0,t]}N(t)=\#\{j: A_j\in(0,t]\}N(t)=#{j:Aj​∈(0,t]} for t≥0t\ge0t≥0, so N(0)=0N(0)=0N(0)=0.

Customers arriving after time 000 are numbered 1,2,…1,2,\dots1,2,… in order of arrival and bring service times V1,V2,…V_1,V_2,\dotsV1​,V2​,…, i.i.d., with Var⁡V1<∞\operatorname{Var}V_1<\inftyVarV1​<∞, independent of (U,ξ)(U,\xi)(U,ξ). A single server works at unit rate and is empty at time 000, so the workload is

W(t)=sup⁡0≤s≤t(∑i=N(s)+1N(t)Vi−(t−s)).W(t)=\sup_{0\le s\le t}\Big(\sum_{i=N(s)+1}^{N(t)}V_i-(t-s)\Big).W(t)=0≤s≤tsup​(i=N(s)+1∑N(t)​Vi​−(t−s)).

The queue is critically loaded when EV1=h\mathbb EV_1=hEV1​=h. The proof works with the counts of early and late customers, E(t)=#{i:ih+Uh>t, ih+Uh+ξi≤t}\mathcal E(t)=\#\{i: ih+Uh>t,\ ih+Uh+\xi_i\le t\}E(t)=#{i:ih+Uh>t, ih+Uh+ξi​≤t} and L(t)=#{i:ih+Uh<t, ih+Uh+ξi≥t}\mathcal L(t)=\#\{i: ih+Uh<t,\ ih+Uh+\xi_i\ge t\}L(t)=#{i:ih+Uh<t, ih+Uh+ξi​≥t}. Finally, reflected Brownian motion with mean 000, unit volatility and X(0)=0X(0)=0X(0)=0 is X(t)=B(t)−inf⁡0≤u≤tB(u)X(t)=B(t)-\inf_{0\le u\le t}B(u)X(t)=B(t)−inf0≤u≤t​B(u) for a standard Brownian motion BBB.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 1

If E∣ξ0∣<∞\mathbb E|\xi_0|<\inftyE∣ξ0​∣<∞, Var⁡V1<∞\operatorname{Var}V_1<\inftyVarV1​<∞ and h=EV1h=\mathbb EV_1h=EV1​, then

t−1/2 W(t)  ⇒  σX(1)(t→∞),σ2=Var⁡V1h.t^{-1/2}\,W(t)\;\Rightarrow\;\sigma X(1)\qquad(t\to\infty),\qquad \sigma^2=\frac{\operatorname{Var}V_1}{h}.t−1/2W(t)⇒σX(1)(t→∞),σ2=hVarV1​​.

The case Var⁡V1=0\operatorname{Var}V_1=0VarV1​=0 is included; the limit is then 000.

Intermediate targets (milestones)

  1. Exponential moments EeθE(0)≤exp⁡((eθ−1)(Eξ0−/h+1))\mathbb E e^{\theta\mathcal E(0)}\le\exp\big((e^\theta-1)(\mathbb E\xi_0^-/h+1)\big)EeθE(0)≤exp((eθ−1)(Eξ0−​/h+1)) and EeθL(0)≤exp⁡((eθ−1)(Eξ0+/h+1))\mathbb E e^{\theta\mathcal L(0)}\le\exp\big((e^\theta-1)(\mathbb E\xi_0^+/h+1)\big)EeθL(0)≤exp((eθ−1)(Eξ0+​/h+1)) for θ>0\theta>0θ>0 (pp. 3–4).
  2. Stationarity of E\mathcal EE and L\mathcal LL (p. 3); the decomposition N(t)=#{ih+Uh∈(0,t]}+(E(t)−L(t))−(E(0)−L(0))N(t)=\#\{ih+Uh\in(0,t]\}+(\mathcal E(t)-\mathcal L(t))-(\mathcal E(0)-\mathcal L(0))N(t)=#{ih+Uh∈(0,t]}+(E(t)−L(t))−(E(0)−L(0)) (p. 4); identically distributed slot increments of NNN with all exponential moments (p. 4).
  3. The maximal bounds 1log⁡nmax⁡kE(kh)\frac1{\log n}\max_k\mathcal E(kh)logn1​maxk​E(kh), 1log⁡nmax⁡kL(kh)\frac1{\log n}\max_k\mathcal L(kh)logn1​maxk​L(kh), 1log⁡nmax⁡k(N((k+1)h)−N(kh))→0\frac1{\log n}\max_k(N((k+1)h)-N(kh))\to0logn1​maxk​(N((k+1)h)−N(kh))→0 in probability (p. 4).
  4. Proposition 1 (p. 3): 1log⁡nmax⁡0≤s≤1∣hN(ns)−ns∣⇒0\dfrac{1}{\log n}\max_{0\le s\le1}|hN(ns)-ns|\Rightarrow0logn1​max0≤s≤1​∣hN(ns)−ns∣⇒0.
  5. The reversed-time representation W(t)=Dmax⁡0≤s≤t(∑i=1N^(s)Vi−s)W(t)\overset{D}{=}\max_{0\le s\le t}\big(\sum_{i=1}^{\hat N(s)}V_i-s\big)W(t)=Dmax0≤s≤t​(∑i=1N^(s)​Vi​−s), with N^\hat NN^ the count of the time-reversed input (p. 4, implicit in the proof).
  6. N(ts)/t→s/hN(ts)/t\to s/hN(ts)/t→s/h almost surely (p. 5); the op(1)o_p(1)op​(1) reduction to t−1/2max⁡0≤s≤1∑i=1N(st)(Vi−h)t^{-1/2}\max_{0\le s\le1}\sum_{i=1}^{N(st)}(V_i-h)t−1/2max0≤s≤1​∑i=1N(st)​(Vi​−h) (p. 5); and its limit σX(1)\sigma X(1)σX(1) (p. 5).

Significance

The result. At critical loading a queue fed by a renewal process with non-degenerate interarrival or service times is null-recurrent at best, and its workload grows like t\sqrt tt​. Corollary 1 shows that scheduled traffic behaves the same way as soon as service times vary, however heavy the (finite-mean) tail of the perturbations: the arrival process contributes nothing on the diffusion scale, and the limit σX(1)\sigma X(1)σX(1) depends only on Var⁡V1\operatorname{Var}V_1VarV1​ and hhh. In particular, W(t)⇒∞W(t)\Rightarrow\inftyW(t)⇒∞ whenever Var⁡V1>0\operatorname{Var}V_1>0VarV1​>0, which is why the paper's stability question (Theorem 1, the companion mission) is posed for deterministic service. Proposition 1, that scheduled traffic deviates from its fluid path by only o(log⁡n)o(\log n)o(logn) over [0,n][0,n][0,n], is of independent use for any functional of scheduled arrivals.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper in a short note that cites two ingredients (the decomposition of NNN and the exponential moments of N(h)N(h)N(h)) from Araman et al. (2022) and leaves the time reversal implicit. A formalization makes those steps explicit and checks the constant: the proof's final display prints σhX(1)\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt h}X(1)h​σ​X(1), which matches (1.1) only when its σ2\sigma^2σ2 is Var⁡V1\operatorname{Var}V_1VarV1​. No part of the argument has been machine-checked so far.

Difficulty

The arrival-process part (Proposition 1) is elementary in each step but long: independent-indicator moment generating functions, stationarity of a perturbed lattice under shifts, and a union bound over nnn slots. The obstacle is the last step. The obvious route, "apply Donsker's theorem", does not apply directly: the random walk ∑i≤m(Vi−h)\sum_{i\le m}(V_i-h)∑i≤m​(Vi​−h) is evaluated at the random times N(st)N(st)N(st), which are not independent stopping times of the walk but come from an independent process, and the target is the law of a Brownian maximum, identified with X(1)X(1)X(1) through Lévy's reflection identity. Mathlib has the central limit theorem and Brownian motion but no invariance principle and no reflection principle. A second trap is the time reversal: the proof's starting expression uses the counting function of the reversed process (perturbations −ξj-\xi_j−ξj​), and replacing it by the forward count gives a statement that is false in law for asymmetric perturbations.

Formalization scope

Lean conventions: the perturbations are a sequence ξ : ℤ → Ω → ℝ; the standing assumptions are bundled in ScheduledInput (measurable, iIndepFun, identically distributed, Integrable (ξ 0), U with the uniform law on [0,1][0,1][0,1], U independent of the whole sequence) and ServiceInput (i.i.d. V : ℕ → Ω → ℝ, MemLp (V 1) 2, V independent of the pair (U, ξ); V 0 is unused). N(t)N(t)N(t) is an ncard in ℕ; E\mathcal EE, L\mathcal LL and slot increments are encard in ℕ∞, and every statement that converts them to numbers carries an almost-sure finiteness conjunct. Suprema are real suprema over [0,t][0,t][0,t] or [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Convergence in distribution is TendstoInDistribution (which includes almost-everywhere measurability), convergence in probability is TendstoInMeasure. The Brownian motion is Mathlib's IsBrownianReal, indexed by ℝ≥0, on an arbitrary probability space, and X(1)X(1)X(1) is B 1 − ⨅ u ∈ [0,1], B u. σ=Var⁡V1/h\sigma=\sqrt{\operatorname{Var}V_1/h}σ=VarV1​/h​ is written out.

Corrections to the printed text, each recorded in the item notes: the workload index range is N(s)+1,…,N(t)N(s)+1,\dots,N(t)N(s)+1,…,N(t) (the page's N(s),…,N(t)N(s),\dots,N(t)N(s),…,N(t) gives W(0)≠0W(0)\ne0W(0)=0); NNN counts arrivals in (0,t](0,t](0,t] instead of the page's non-additive closed intervals; the constant is Var⁡V1/h\sqrt{\operatorname{Var}V_1/h}VarV1​/h​ for the proof's "σ/h\sigma/\sqrt hσ/h​"; the counting function in the reversed representation is that of the reversed input; "as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞" on p. 5 means t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞; and the misprinted intermediate lines of the bound on EeθE(0)\mathbb Ee^{\theta\mathcal E(0)}EeθE(0) are not used.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out as follows: counts that are infinite on a set of positive probability cannot make a bound easier, since finiteness is asserted; the limit is a probability law on R\mathbb RR, not on an extended line; the limit is reflected Brownian motion at time 111, not a substituted half-normal formula; and Var⁡V1=0\operatorname{Var}V_1=0VarV1​=0 is not excluded.

Needed infrastructure: a Donsker-type invariance principle (or at least the convergence of the maximum of a random walk, which is an open platform goal of its own), a random time-change lemma, Lévy's identity sup⁡u≤1B(u)=DB(1)−inf⁡u≤1B(u)\sup_{u\le1}B(u)\overset{D}{=}B(1)-\inf_{u\le1}B(u)supu≤1​B(u)=DB(1)−infu≤1​B(u), and stationarity of perturbed lattices. These are reusable well beyond this paper. Contributions to any milestone, or to these supporting results, are welcome.

Selected references

  • V. F. Araman and P. W. Glynn, Stability of a Queue Fed by Scheduled Traffic at Critical Loading, arXiv:2212.04164v1, 2022; Operations Research (technical note), 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04164
  • V. F. Araman and P. W. Glynn, Fractional Brownian motion with H < 1/2 as a limit of scheduled traffic, Journal of Applied Probability 49(3), 1169–1188, 2012.
  • V. F. Araman, H. Chen, P. W. Glynn and L. Xia, On a single server queue fed by scheduled traffic with Pareto perturbations, Queueing Systems 100, 61–91, 2022 (cited in the paper as Araman et al. (2022) for Proposition 2 and the exponential moments of N(h)N(h)N(h)).
  • J. F. C. Kingman, On queues in heavy traffic, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 24(2), 383–392, 1962. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2984229
  • R. M. Loynes, The stability of a queue with non-independent inter-arrival and service times, Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 58(3), 497–520, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305004100036781
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Markov ChainNumerical AnalysisProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Multilevel Langevin Pathwise Average for Gibbs Approximation I: Under (H₁)–(H₄) the Multilevel Occupation Measure Has L²-Error ≲ [f]₁ε at Cost 𝔠_𝔞γ₀⁻¹𝔱ε⁻², or ε⁻²R_ε³ When 𝔞 = 1Research Paper

Motivation

Sampling from a Gibbs distribution π(dx)∝e−U(x)dx\pi(dx)\propto e^{-U(x)}dxπ(dx)∝e−U(x)dx on Rd\mathbb R^dRd, or computing integrals π(f)\pi(f)π(f) against it, is a basic task in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. A standard approach simulates an ergodic diffusion whose invariant distribution is π\piπ, such as the overdamped Langevin diffusion dXt=−∇U(Xt)dt+2 dBtdX_t=-\nabla U(X_t)dt+\sqrt2\,dB_tdXt​=−∇U(Xt​)dt+2​dBt​, discretizes it with an Euler scheme of step γ\gammaγ, and averages fff along one long trajectory. Two errors compete: a bias of order γδ\gamma^\deltaγδ, because the scheme's invariant distribution πγ\pi^\gammaπγ differs from π\piπ, and a variance of order 1/T1/T1/T for a time horizon TTT. With a single step, balancing them requires of the order of ε−3\varepsilon^{-3}ε−3 Euler iterations for an ε\varepsilonε-approximation when the bias is of order γ\gammaγ (Egéa–Panloup, p. 3).

Multilevel Monte Carlo (Giles 2008, doi:10.1287/opre.1070.0496) removes this extra factor in finite-horizon problems by combining coarse and fine discretizations whose differences have small variance. Pagès and Panloup (arXiv:1609.00412) and Giles, Majka, Szpruch, Vollmer and Zygalakis (arXiv:1805.10974) adapted the idea to invariant distributions. Egéa and Panloup (arXiv:2109.07753, Math. Oper. Res. 2025) build a multilevel pathwise average, a combination of occupation measures of Euler schemes, and prove an L2L^2L2-error of order ε\varepsilonε at cost ε−2\varepsilon^{-2}ε−2, or ε−2∣log⁡ε∣3\varepsilon^{-2}|\log\varepsilon|^3ε−2∣logε∣3 in a borderline case, under four abstract assumptions. This mission formalizes that general result (their Theorem 2.1 (ii)) and the bias and variance estimates behind it.

Setting

Let b:Rd→Rdb:\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb R^db:Rd→Rd and σ:Rd→Md,d\sigma:\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb M_{d,d}σ:Rd→Md,d​ be Lipschitz. For a step γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, a starting point xxx and a ddd-dimensional standard Brownian motion WWW, the Euler scheme is Xˉ0γ,x=x\bar X^{\gamma,x}_0=xXˉ0γ,x​=x and

Xˉ(n+1)γγ,x=Xˉnγγ,x+γb(Xˉnγγ,x)+σ(Xˉnγγ,x)(W(n+1)γ−Wnγ).\bar X^{\gamma,x}_{(n+1)\gamma}=\bar X^{\gamma,x}_{n\gamma}+\gamma b(\bar X^{\gamma,x}_{n\gamma})+\sigma(\bar X^{\gamma,x}_{n\gamma})(W_{(n+1)\gamma}-W_{n\gamma}).Xˉ(n+1)γγ,x​=Xˉnγγ,x​+γb(Xˉnγγ,x​)+σ(Xˉnγγ,x​)(W(n+1)γ​−Wnγ​).

Write s‾η=η⌊s/η⌋\underline{s}_\eta=\eta\lfloor s/\eta\rfloors​η​=η⌊s/η⌋ and [f]1[f]_1[f]1​ for the Lipschitz constant of f:Rd→Rf:\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb Rf:Rd→R.

Fix x0x_0x0​, a number of levels R≥1R\ge1R≥1, steps γr=γ02−r\gamma_r=\gamma_02^{-r}γr​=γ0​2−r, horizons T0,…,TRT_0,\dots,T_RT0​,…,TR​, a warm start τ\tauτ, and independent Brownian motions B(0),…,B(R)B^{(0)},\dots,B^{(R)}B(0),…,B(R). The multilevel occupation measure is

Y(f)=1T0−τ∫τT0f(Xˉs‾γ0γ0,x0,B(0))ds+∑r=1R1Tr−τ∫τTr(f(Xˉs‾γr−1γr,x0,B(r))−f(Xˉs‾γr−1γr−1,x0,B(r)))ds.\mathcal Y(f)=\frac1{T_0-\tau}\int_\tau^{T_0}f(\bar X^{\gamma_0,x_0,B^{(0)}}_{\underline{s}_{\gamma_0}})ds+\sum_{r=1}^R\frac1{T_r-\tau}\int_\tau^{T_r}\Big(f(\bar X^{\gamma_r,x_0,B^{(r)}}_{\underline{s}_{\gamma_{r-1}}})-f(\bar X^{\gamma_{r-1},x_0,B^{(r)}}_{\underline{s}_{\gamma_{r-1}}})\Big)ds .Y(f)=T0​−τ1​∫τT0​​f(Xˉs​γ0​​γ0​,x0​,B(0)​)ds+r=1∑R​Tr​−τ1​∫τTr​​(f(Xˉs​γr−1​​γr​,x0​,B(r)​)−f(Xˉs​γr−1​​γr−1​,x0​,B(r)​))ds.

Inside level r≥1r\ge1r≥1 both schemes use the same Brownian motion and are read at the coarse times. The cost is C(Y)=T0/γ0+∑r=1R(Tr/γr+Tr/γr−1)\mathcal C(\mathcal Y)=T_0/\gamma_0+\sum_{r=1}^R(T_r/\gamma_r+T_r/\gamma_{r-1})C(Y)=T0​/γ0​+∑r=1R​(Tr​/γr​+Tr​/γr−1​), the number of Euler iterations.

The assumptions involve α>0\alpha>0α>0, a∈[1,2]\mathfrak a\in[1,2]a∈[1,2], η0>0\eta_0>0η0​>0, the invariant distributions π\piπ of the diffusion and πγ\pi^\gammaπγ of the scheme, and ∥Z∥2=E[∣Z∣2]1/2\|Z\|_2=\mathbb E[|Z|^2]^{1/2}∥Z∥2​=E[∣Z∣2]1/2. For every γ∈(0,η0]\gamma\in(0,\eta_0]γ∈(0,η0​]:

  • (H1)(\mathbf H_1)(H1​) ∣Ef(Xˉnγγ,x)−πγ(f)∣≤c1(x)[f]1e−αnγ|\mathbb E f(\bar X^{\gamma,x}_{n\gamma})-\pi^\gamma(f)|\le c_1(x)[f]_1e^{-\alpha n\gamma}∣Ef(Xˉnγγ,x​)−πγ(f)∣≤c1​(x)[f]1​e−αnγ (exponential convergence to equilibrium);
  • (H2)(\mathbf H_2)(H2​) ∥Xˉnγγ,x0−Xˉnγγ/2,x0∥2≤c2γa/2\|\bar X^{\gamma,x_0}_{n\gamma}-\bar X^{\gamma/2,x_0}_{n\gamma}\|_2\le c_2\gamma^{\mathfrak a/2}∥Xˉnγγ,x0​​−Xˉnγγ/2,x0​​∥2​≤c2​γa/2 (L2L^2L2-confluence);
  • (H3)(\mathbf H_3)(H3​) ∣π(f)−πγ(f)∣≤c3[f]1γδ|\pi(f)-\pi^\gamma(f)|\le c_3[f]_1\gamma^\delta∣π(f)−πγ(f)∣≤c3​[f]1​γδ, with δ∈[1/2,1]\delta\in[1/2,1]δ∈[1/2,1] if a=1\mathfrak a=1a=1 and δ∈((1+a)/4,1]\delta\in((1+\mathfrak a)/4,1]δ∈((1+a)/4,1] if a>1\mathfrak a>1a>1;
  • (H4)(\mathbf H_4)(H4​) ∥Xˉtγ,x0−x0∥2+∥c1(Xˉtγ,x0)∥2≤c4\|\bar X^{\gamma,x_0}_{t}-x_0\|_2+\|c_1(\bar X^{\gamma,x_0}_{t})\|_2\le c_4∥Xˉtγ,x0​​−x0​∥2​+∥c1​(Xˉtγ,x0​​)∥2​≤c4​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.1 (ii)

With α≤1\alpha\le1α≤1, η0≤12\eta_0\le\frac12η0​≤21​, γ0≤η0\gamma_0\le\eta_0γ0​≤η0​, r0≥1∨c3γ0δr_0\ge1\vee c_3\gamma_0^\deltar0​≥1∨c3​γ0δ​, t≥t0=daαmax⁡(c22γ0alog⁡γ0−1,c42)\mathfrak t\ge\mathfrak t_0=\frac{\mathfrak d_{\mathfrak a}}\alpha\max(c_2^2\gamma_0^{\mathfrak a}\log\gamma_0^{-1},c_4^2)t≥t0​=αda​​max(c22​γ0a​logγ0−1​,c42​), ε∈(0,1)\varepsilon\in(0,1)ε∈(0,1), Rε=⌈δ−1log⁡2(r0/ε)⌉R_\varepsilon=\lceil\delta^{-1}\log_2(r_0/\varepsilon)\rceilRε​=⌈δ−1log2​(r0​/ε)⌉, Tr=tε−22−1+a2rT_r=\mathfrak t\varepsilon^{-2}2^{-\frac{1+\mathfrak a}2r}Tr​=tε−22−21+a​r (a>1\mathfrak a>1a>1) or tε−2Rε22−r\mathfrak t\varepsilon^{-2}R_\varepsilon^22^{-r}tε−2Rε2​2−r (a=1\mathfrak a=1a=1), and τ∈[τ1∣log⁡ε∣+τ2,12TRε]\tau\in[\tau_1|\log\varepsilon|+\tau_2,\frac12T_{R_\varepsilon}]τ∈[τ1​∣logε∣+τ2​,21​TRε​​]:

∥Y(f)−π(f)∥2≤C1[f]1ε,C(Y)≤caγ0−1t ε−2 (a>1),≤caγ0−1t ε−2Rε3 (a=1),\|\mathcal Y(f)-\pi(f)\|_2\le\mathfrak C_1[f]_1\varepsilon,\qquad \mathcal C(\mathcal Y)\le\mathfrak c_{\mathfrak a}\gamma_0^{-1}\mathfrak t\,\varepsilon^{-2}\ (\mathfrak a>1),\quad\le\mathfrak c_{\mathfrak a}\gamma_0^{-1}\mathfrak t\,\varepsilon^{-2}R_\varepsilon^3\ (\mathfrak a=1),∥Y(f)−π(f)∥2​≤C1​[f]1​ε,C(Y)≤ca​γ0−1​tε−2 (a>1),≤ca​γ0−1​tε−2Rε3​ (a=1),

with C1\mathfrak C_1C1​ a universal constant. The cost constant ca\mathfrak c_{\mathfrak a}ca​ is explicit; the error constant is left existential, which is how the paper states it.

Companion: Theorem 2.1 (i)

With the same steps and horizons but r0≥1r_0\ge1r0​≥1, t>0\mathfrak t>0t>0 arbitrary and τ∈[τ1log⁡(ε−1)∧12TRε,12TRε]\tau\in[\tau_1\log(\varepsilon^{-1})\wedge\frac12T_{R_\varepsilon},\frac12T_{R_\varepsilon}]τ∈[τ1​log(ε−1)∧21​TRε​​,21​TRε​​] for a fixed τ1>1+a−2δ2αδ\tau_1>\frac{1+\mathfrak a-2\delta}{2\alpha\delta}τ1​>2αδ1+a−2δ​, the same two bounds hold with an error constant C1\mathfrak C_1C1​ that depends on the parameters but not on fff, ε\varepsilonε or τ\tauτ. It is a separate theorem item, not a milestone.

Milestones

Lemma 3.1 (long-time bias of one average), Proposition 3.2 (bias of Y\mathcal YY), the variance decomposition (32), Lemma 3.2 (variance of one correcting level), Proposition 3.3 (variance of Y\mathcal YY), the cost bound (28), and Proposition 3.1, the non-asymptotic squared-error bound for given steps and horizons.

Significance

Theorem 2.1 separates the analysis of the multilevel estimator from the analysis of any particular diffusion. Once a diffusion satisfies (H1)(\mathbf H_1)(H1​)–(H4)(\mathbf H_4)(H4​), the complexity follows with explicit parameters. The paper then checks the assumptions for Langevin diffusions with strongly convex potentials and obtains dimension-explicit costs O(dε−2log⁡3(dε−2))\mathcal O(d\varepsilon^{-2}\log^3(d\varepsilon^{-2}))O(dε−2log3(dε−2)) and O(dε−2)\mathcal O(d\varepsilon^{-2})O(dε−2). Those are the companion missions II and III of this series; they rest on the same estimator and cost.

The paper's proofs are on paper only. No machine-checked proof of a multilevel ergodic estimator is known to us. This mission produces a statement-level formalization of the estimator, its cost, the four assumptions and the bias–variance bounds. A complete development would add discrete-time Markov-property arguments for Euler schemes driven by a Brownian motion, covariance bounds for ergodic averages, and the elementary but delicate parameter calculus of §4.

Difficulty

The bias step is close to routine once (H1)(\mathbf H_1)(H1​) and (H3)(\mathbf H_3)(H3​) are given. The variance of a correcting level is not. Bounding it by the second moment alone gives (T−τ)−1⋅Tγa(T-\tau)^{-1}\cdot T\gamma^{\mathfrak a}(T−τ)−1⋅Tγa, which does not decay with TTT. The proof must also use mixing: covariances between times sss and uuu far apart are controlled by (H1)(\mathbf H_1)(H1​) through the Markov property, which needs the conditional law of each scheme given its past and a moment bound on c1c_1c1​ along the path (H4)(\mathbf H_4)(H4​). The two regimes are matched at a separation of order ∣log⁡γ∣/α|\log\gamma|/\alpha∣logγ∣/α, and this is where the factor log⁡(1/γ)\log(1/\gamma)log(1/γ) comes from. At the level of the theorem, the parameters (8) and the warm start τ\tauτ must make three error terms simultaneously ≲ε\lesssim\varepsilon≲ε with a constant independent of ddd, fff, the diffusion and every assumption constant. Getting the uniformity right is what the explicit thresholds t0\mathfrak t_0t0​, τ1\tau_1τ1​, τ2\tau_2τ2​ are for.

Formalization scope

  • Rd\mathbb R^dRd is the published EthierKurtz.SDEState d, and a Brownian motion is the published EthierKurtz.IsStandardBrownian. The levels' Brownian motions form one family B : ℕ → ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ^d, mutually independent as path-valued variables. σ(x)\sigma(x)σ(x) is a continuous linear map Rd→Rd\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb R^dRd→Rd.
  • The Euler scheme is evaluated at grid times. (H1)(\mathbf H_1)(H1​)–(H4)(\mathbf H_4)(H4​) are stated at grid times nγn\gammanγ, for every level's Brownian motion. For (H4)(\mathbf H_4)(H4​), whose supremum the paper takes over all real ttt, this is a weaker assumption, so the theorems are stronger.
  • ∥⋅∥2\|\cdot\|_2∥⋅∥2​ is eLpNorm · 2 P and variances are evariance, both valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], so an infinite moment is never read as 000. Expectations that are concluded come with an integrability conjunct.
  • π\piπ and πγ\pi^\gammaπγ are arbitrary probability measures satisfying (H1)(\mathbf H_1)(H1​) and (H3)(\mathbf H_3)(H3​), with fff integrable. The SDE and the invariance of π\piπ, πγ\pi^\gammaπγ are not formalized: the results never use invariance, so the statements generalize the paper's.
  • [f]1[f]_1[f]1​ is the least Lipschitz constant. The cost is the formula of p. 6 for all horizons. (a−1)−2∧R2(\mathfrak a-1)^{-2}\wedge R^2(a−1)−2∧R2, da\mathfrak d_{\mathfrak a}da​ and ca\mathfrak c_{\mathfrak a}ca​ are defined case by case, so a=1\mathfrak a=1a=1 never divides by zero.
  • Universal constants (C1\mathfrak C_1C1​, cu\mathfrak c_ucu​) are quantified before the dimension, the probability space and every datum.
  • Added hypotheses: γ≤1/2\gamma\le1/2γ≤1/2 and α≤1\alpha\le1α≤1 in Lemma 3.2, and η0≤1/2\eta_0\le1/2η0​≤1/2 in Proposition 3.3. These are the standing ranges of Theorem 2.1; without them the printed bounds fail for steps ≥1\ge1≥1. The restriction ε<ε0\varepsilon<\varepsilon_0ε<ε0​ of the goal is replaced by quantifying over every τ\tauτ in the admissible interval, which is the same claim.
  • A formalization in which the bias or variance bounds, Proposition 3.1 or any covariance estimate appear as hypotheses of the goal is excluded. The goal assumes only (H1)(\mathbf H_1)(H1​)–(H4)(\mathbf H_4)(H4​) and the parameter choices (8), (39)–(40).

Contributions are welcome on any milestone, on Markov-property and moment lemmas for Euler schemes driven by IsStandardBrownian, and on the Theorem 2.1 (i) companion with non-explicit constants.

Selected references

  • M. Egéa, F. Panloup, Multilevel-Langevin pathwise average for Gibbs approximation, arXiv:2109.07753v2, 2024; Math. Oper. Res., 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.07753
  • G. Pagès, F. Panloup, Weighted multilevel Langevin simulation of invariant measures, Ann. Appl. Probab. 28(6), 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.00412
  • M. B. Giles, M. B. Majka, L. Szpruch, S. Vollmer, K. Zygalakis, Multi-level Monte Carlo methods for the approximation of invariant measures of stochastic differential equations, Stat. Comput. 30, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.10974
  • M. B. Giles, Multilevel Monte Carlo path simulation, Oper. Res. 56(3), 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0496
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Quantile Optimization via Multiple Timescale Local Search for Black-box Functions: SPQO's Mean Absolute Error Decays as O(α_k/γ_k) + O(c_k²) + O(β_k^{1/2}/c_k) for Strongly Convex QuantilesResearch Paper

Why optimize a quantile of a black box

Risk-sensitive decisions are often judged by a quantile of an outcome rather than by its mean: the 95th percentile of waiting time in a service system, the value-at-risk of a portfolio, the tail of a project's completion time. When the outcome is produced by a stochastic simulation or another black box, its distribution is unknown and only samples are available, so neither the quantile nor its gradient can be evaluated. Hu, Song and Fu (arXiv:2308.07607, Operations Research, 2025) propose a local search method for this problem that uses three samples per iteration in any dimension, and they prove that its iterates converge almost surely and at an explicit rate.

Earlier approaches estimate the quantile gradient by finite differences of order statistics, which requires sample sizes growing to infinity (Kibzun and Matveev 2012), or run a multi-timescale stochastic approximation driven by direct gradient estimators such as perturbation analysis or likelihood ratios (Hu, Peng, Zhang and Zhang 2022), which a black box does not provide. The present paper estimates the gradient from indicator differences along a simultaneous perturbation in the spirit of Spall's SPSA (1992), using a coordinate-wise variant (SDQO) as a baseline whose cost grows with the dimension ddd, and, by its own account (p. 5), gives the first convergence rate for a three-timescale stochastic approximation scheme.

Setting

For every input θ∈Rd\theta\in\mathbb R^dθ∈Rd a black box returns a random output Y(θ)Y(\theta)Y(θ) with c.d.f. F(y;θ)F(y;\theta)F(y;θ) and density f(y;θ)=∂F(y;θ)/∂yf(y;\theta)=\partial F(y;\theta)/\partial yf(y;θ)=∂F(y;θ)/∂y. For a fixed level φ∈(0,1)\varphi\in(0,1)φ∈(0,1) the quantile function q(θ)q(\theta)q(θ) solves F(q(θ);θ)=φF(q(\theta);\theta)=\varphiF(q(θ);θ)=φ, and the problem is

min⁡θ∈Θq(θ),\min_{\theta\in\Theta} q(\theta),θ∈Θmin​q(θ),

where the parameter set Θ={θ:hj(θ)≤0, j=1,…,m}\Theta=\{\theta: h_j(\theta)\le0,\ j=1,\dots,m\}Θ={θ:hj​(θ)≤0, j=1,…,m} is compact and convex, with each hjh_jhj​ continuously differentiable and ∇hj≠0\nabla h_j\ne0∇hj​=0 on {hj=0}\{h_j=0\}{hj​=0}. Under smoothness, ∇q(θ)=−∇θF(y;θ)∣y=q(θ)/f(q(θ);θ)\nabla q(\theta)=-\nabla_\theta F(y;\theta)|_{y=q(\theta)}/f(q(\theta);\theta)∇q(θ)=−∇θ​F(y;θ)∣y=q(θ)​/f(q(θ);θ).

Algorithm SPQO keeps a quantile estimate qkq_kqk​, a gradient estimate DkD_kDk​ and the decision θk\theta_kθk​. With step sizes αk,βk,γk\alpha_k,\beta_k,\gamma_kαk​,βk​,γk​, perturbation sizes ckc_kck​, the adaptive perturbation cˉk=ck/max⁡{1,∥Dk∥/d}\bar c_k=c_k/\max\{1,\|D_k\|/\sqrt d\}cˉk​=ck​/max{1,∥Dk​∥/d​} and a random direction Δk∈{±1}d\Delta_k\in\{\pm1\}^dΔk​∈{±1}d with independent uniform signs,

qk+1=qk+γk(φ−I{Y(θk)≤qk}),Dk+1=Dk+βk −I{Y(θk+cˉkΔk)≤qk+cˉkDkTΔk}+I{Y(θk−cˉkΔk)≤qk−cˉkDkTΔk}2cˉkΔk,θk+1=ΠΘ(θk−αkDk),\begin{aligned} q_{k+1}&=q_k+\gamma_k\big(\varphi-I\{Y(\theta_k)\le q_k\}\big),\\ D_{k+1}&=D_k+\beta_k\,\frac{-I\{Y(\theta_k+\bar c_k\Delta_k)\le q_k+\bar c_kD_k^T\Delta_k\}+I\{Y(\theta_k-\bar c_k\Delta_k)\le q_k-\bar c_kD_k^T\Delta_k\}}{2\bar c_k\Delta_k},\\ \theta_{k+1}&=\Pi_\Theta(\theta_k-\alpha_kD_k), \end{aligned}qk+1​Dk+1​θk+1​​=qk​+γk​(φ−I{Y(θk​)≤qk​}),=Dk​+βk​2cˉk​Δk​−I{Y(θk​+cˉk​Δk​)≤qk​+cˉk​DkT​Δk​}+I{Y(θk​−cˉk​Δk​)≤qk​−cˉk​DkT​Δk​}​,=ΠΘ​(θk​−αk​Dk​),​

with division by Δk\Delta_kΔk​ taken componentwise and ΠΘ\Pi_\ThetaΠΘ​ the Euclidean projection onto Θ\ThetaΘ. The timescales are separated by αk=o(γk)\alpha_k=o(\gamma_k)αk​=o(γk​) and γk=o(βk)\gamma_k=o(\beta_k)γk​=o(βk​).

The analysis rests on assumptions A1–A3 (local smoothness of FFF and a lower bound on fff near the iterates; Rademacher directions; step-size conditions) and, for rates, B1–B3 (two-sided bounds on fff between qkq_kqk​ and q(θk)q(\theta_k)q(θk​); Lipschitz continuity of fff and ∇θF\nabla_\theta F∇θ​F in yyy; a lower bound ϱ>0\varrho>0ϱ>0 on the smallest eigenvalue of the Hessian H(θ)=∇2q(θ)H(\theta)=\nabla^2q(\theta)H(θ)=∇2q(θ) along the segments [θk,θ∗][\theta_k,\theta^*][θk​,θ∗]). Section 4 uses step sizes αk=a/kα\alpha_k=a/k^\alphaαk​=a/kα, βk=b/kβ\beta_k=b/k^\betaβk​=b/kβ, γk=r/kγ\gamma_k=r/k^\gammaγk​=r/kγ, ck=c/kτc_k=c/k^\tauck​=c/kτ with exponents in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 19)

Under A1–A3 and B1–B3, with the Section 4 step sizes, qqq twice continuously differentiable and θ∗\theta^*θ∗ the unique equilibrium of the projected gradient ODE (25), lying in the interior of Θ\ThetaΘ,

E[∥θk−θ∗∥]=O(αkγk)+O(ck2)+O(βk1/2ck).E\big[\|\theta_k-\theta^*\|\big]=O\Big(\frac{\alpha_k}{\gamma_k}\Big)+O\big(c_k^2\big)+O\Big(\frac{\beta_k^{1/2}}{c_k}\Big).E[∥θk​−θ∗∥]=O(γk​αk​​)+O(ck2​)+O(ck​βk1/2​​).

The constants are left unspecified: the goal asserts the shape of the rate, which is what the paper proves.

Milestones

  1. Display (4): the quantile gradient formula.
  2. Lemma 1: sup⁡kE∥Dk∥2<∞\sup_kE\|D_k\|^2<\inftysupk​E∥Dk​∥2<∞ and sup⁡k∥Dk∥<∞\sup_k\|D_k\|<\inftysupk​∥Dk​∥<∞ almost surely.
  3. Lemma 2: the conditional bias of the simultaneous-perturbation estimator is O(ck2)O(c_k^2)O(ck2​) almost surely and in mean.
  4. Theorem 1 (strictly convex case): θk→θ∗\theta_k\to\theta^*θk​→θ∗ almost surely.
  5. Lemma 3: ∑i=1k[∏j=i+1k(1−a/jp)](a/ip)w(i)=O(k−s)\sum_{i=1}^k\big[\prod_{j=i+1}^k(1-a/j^p)\big](a/i^p)w(i)=O(k^{-s})∑i=1k​[∏j=i+1k​(1−a/jp)](a/ip)w(i)=O(k−s) when w(i)=O(i−s)w(i)=O(i^{-s})w(i)=O(i−s).
  6. Lemma 4: E[(qk−q(θk))2]=O(αk/γk)+O(γk1/2)\sqrt{E[(q_k-q(\theta_k))^2]}=O(\alpha_k/\gamma_k)+O(\gamma_k^{1/2})E[(qk​−q(θk​))2]​=O(αk​/γk​)+O(γk1/2​).
  7. Lemma 5: E∥Dk−∇q(θk)∥2=O(αk/γk)+O(ck2)+O(βk1/2/ck)\sqrt{E\|D_k-\nabla q(\theta_k)\|^2}=O(\alpha_k/\gamma_k)+O(c_k^2)+O(\beta_k^{1/2}/c_k)E∥Dk​−∇q(θk​)∥2​=O(αk​/γk​)+O(ck2​)+O(βk1/2​/ck​).

Significance

The rate (27) makes the trade-off among the three timescales explicit: αk/γk\alpha_k/\gamma_kαk​/γk​ is the cost of tracking a moving quantile, ck2c_k^2ck2​ the bias of the perturbation, and βk1/2/ck\beta_k^{1/2}/c_kβk1/2​/ck​ its noise. Balancing them selects the step-size exponents, and the special cases recover the O(1/k)O(1/\sqrt k)O(1/k​) rate of recursive quantile estimation and Spall's SPSA rate. The intermediate results (moment bounds for a gradient tracker with adaptive perturbation, an O(ck2)O(c_k^2)O(ck2​) bias bound for an indicator-based SPSA estimator, and the weighted-sum estimate of Lemma 3) apply to other multi-timescale stochastic approximation schemes.

The theorem is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version exists. A formalization would check a rate argument for three coupled recursions, a setting in which hypotheses are easily lost: the paper's own proofs use a bound on ∇θF\nabla_\theta F∇θ​F that A1 does not list, and one step of the proof of Theorem 3 (display (29)) treats a conditional mean as an unconditional one. The statement survives both, as recorded in the formalization notes.

Difficulty

The three recursions are coupled in both directions. The gradient tracker DkD_kDk​ is driven by indicator differences whose perturbation is itself scaled by DkD_kDk​, so the O(ck2)O(c_k^2)O(ck2​) bias holds only once DkD_kDk​ is known to be bounded, and boundedness must be shown with the adaptive cˉk\bar c_kcˉk​. The natural first idea, analyzing each recursion with the slower ones frozen, gives convergence but not rates: the targets q(θk)q(\theta_k)q(θk​) and ∇q(θk)\nabla q(\theta_k)∇q(θk​) move, and the error of each tracker must be bounded in mean square while the tracker it depends on is still converging. The rate also needs the almost-sure convergence of Theorem 1, which is an ODE-method argument for a projected, coupled scheme.

Formalization scope

Rd\mathbb R^dRd is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) with d≥1d\ge1d≥1. The black box is a family of laws μθ\mu_\thetaμθ​ on R\mathbb RR, defined for every θ∈Rd\theta\in\mathbb R^dθ∈Rd because SPQO samples outside Θ\ThetaΘ. A run lives on a probability space with a general filtration; initial values are deterministic with θ0∈Θ\theta_0\in\Thetaθ0​∈Θ; the sampling model fixes the conditional law of each output given the past (and Δk\Delta_kΔk​), which covers independent sampling and common random numbers. Expectations are Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and the bias of Lemma 2 is an explicit average over the 2d2^d2d sign vectors. O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) is the paper's one-sided notion: a constant, depending on the instance and the run but not on kkk, times the rate, for all large kkk.

The following departures from the page are disclosed in every affected statement:

  • D1 the quantile step is projected onto a closed interval I⊇q(Θ)I\supseteq q(\Theta)I⊇q(Θ), the truncation the paper recommends on p. 13; I=RI=\mathbb RI=R is the printed recursion;
  • D2 step sizes use k+1k+1k+1 in place of kkk;
  • D3 A1 bounds the first derivatives of FFF, which the proofs use;
  • D4 only conditional marginal laws of the outputs are imposed;
  • D5 θ0∈Θ\theta_0\in\Thetaθ0​∈Θ;
  • D6 the Section 4 standing assumption (a unique globally asymptotically stable equilibrium θ∗\theta^*θ∗ of the projected ODE (25) in the interior of Θ\ThetaΘ) is stated in its equivalent first-order form: θ∗\theta^*θ∗ is interior and is the only θ∈Θ\theta\in\Thetaθ∈Θ with −∇q(θ)-\nabla q(\theta)−∇q(θ) in the normal cone of Θ\ThetaΘ at θ\thetaθ (the equilibria of (25); qqq is a Lyapunov function for (25), so uniqueness gives global asymptotic stability);
  • D7 joint continuity of fff is required on R×Θ\mathbb R\times\ThetaR×Θ.

B3 is stated as the quadratic-form bound vTH(θ)v≥ϱ∥v∥2v^TH(\theta)v\ge\varrho\|v\|^2vTH(θ)v≥ϱ∥v∥2, equivalent to the eigenvalue bound for the symmetric Hessian. Theorem 1 is formalized only in its strictly convex clause.

Several trivializing formalizations are ruled out. Without the truncation of D1 no run satisfies A1(b) or B1, so the untruncated statement would be vacuous. No statement takes a Bochner expectation or conditional expectation of a possibly non-integrable quantity. Gradients and Hessians of qqq are read only where qqq is C2C^2C2. No OOO-constant may depend on kkk.

A complete development needs stochastic approximation tools that Mathlib lacks: Robbins–Siegmund-type supermartingale convergence, the ODE method for projected recursions, and second-moment recursions for coupled trackers. These are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions are welcome for any milestone, and Lemma 3 is pure real analysis.

Selected references

  • J. Hu, M. Song, M. C. Fu, Quantile Optimization via Multiple Timescale Local Search for Black-box Functions, Operations Research, 2025; arXiv:2308.07607v1, 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.07607
  • J. C. Spall, Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 37(3):332–341, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.119632
  • M. C. Fu, L. J. Hong, J.-Q. Hu, Conditional Monte Carlo estimation of quantile sensitivities, Management Science 55(12):2019–2027, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1090.1090
  • J. Hu, Y. Peng, G. Zhang, Q. Zhang, A stochastic approximation method for simulation-based quantile optimization, INFORMS Journal on Computing 34(6):2889–2907, 2022.
  • A. I. Kibzun, E. Matveev, Optimization of the quantile criterion for the convex loss function by a stochastic quasi-gradient algorithm, Annals of Operations Research 200(1):183–198, 2012.
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Managing Resources for Shared Micromobility: Approximate Optimality in Large-Scale Systems: The Transient-Horizon Mean-Field Policy Has Optimality Gap at Most γCγᵀ/(1 − γ)Research Paper

Rebalancing shared vehicles at scale

Shared bike and scooter systems (micromobility) must decide, every period, how to move vehicles between stations, which depleted vehicles to recharge, and how many vehicles to source from or return to a central warehouse. Customer trips redistribute the fleet in the meantime, and some vehicles come back with a depleted battery. For a realistic network, the exact Markov decision process has a state space that grows exponentially in the number of stations, so its optimal policy cannot be computed.

Akturk, Candogan and Gupta (Management Science, 2022; preprint SSRN 4155841) group stations into finitely many types and replace the stochastic network by a deterministic mean-field model that tracks, for each type, the fraction of stations holding each number of charged vehicles and the scaled stock of depleted vehicles. They show that the mean-field model is asymptotically exact as the number of stations grows (their Theorem 3.4), and they propose a control algorithm for it whose optimality gap they bound explicitly (their Theorem 4.2). This mission formalizes the second result.

The compact mean-field model

There are e^\hat ee^ station types, with nen_ene​ stations of type eee and n=∑enen = \sum_e n_en=∑e​ne​ in total. A customer leaving a type-e′e'e′ station returns the vehicle at a type-eee station with probability pe′,e=newe′,e/∑e2we′,e2ne2p_{e',e} = n_e w_{e',e}/\sum_{e_2} w_{e',e_2} n_{e_2}pe′,e​=ne​we′,e​/∑e2​​we′,e2​​ne2​​. Demand at a type-eee station has a law DeD^eDe on N0\mathbb N_0N0​ with finite mean and variance; a returned vehicle is still charged with probability qqq, and costs are discounted by γ∈[0,1)\gamma \in [0, 1)γ∈[0,1).

The extended types are 000 (the warehouse), 1,…,e^1, \dots, \hat e1,…,e^ (charged vehicles of each type) and e^+1,…,2e^\hat e + 1, \dots, 2\hat ee^+1,…,2e^ (the depleted stock of each type). Moving one vehicle from extended type e1e_1e1​ to e2e_2e2​ costs ce1,e2c_{e_1,e_2}ce1​,e2​​, with ce1,e2≥ce1,e1/2+ce2,e2/2c_{e_1,e_2} \ge c_{e_1,e_1}/2 + c_{e_2,e_2}/2ce1​,e2​​≥ce1​,e1​​/2+ce2​,e2​​/2.

An action a^∈A^\hat a \in \hat Aa^∈A^ is a post-rebalancing distribution: fractions a^e,d≥0\hat a_{e,d} \ge 0a^e,d​≥0 of stations of type eee holding ddd vehicles, supported on {Le,…,Ue}\{L^e, \dots, U^e\}{Le,…,Ue} and summing to ne/nn_e/nne​/n, and a scaled depleted stock a^e,r∈[Lr,e,Ur,e]\hat a_{e,r} \in [L^{r,e}, U^{r,e}]a^e,r​∈[Lr,e,Ur,e]. A state x˘∈X˘\breve x \in \breve Xx˘∈X˘ records the fractions x˘e,d\breve x_{e,d}x˘e,d​ for d≤Ued \le U^ed≤Ue, the depleted stock x˘e,r\breve x_{e,r}x˘e,r​, and two aggregates x˘e,s,x˘e,u\breve x_{e,s}, \breve x_{e,u}x˘e,s​,x˘e,u​ of the vehicles above UeU^eUe, within the bounds of the paper's Appendix F.

The next state x˘′(a^)\breve x'(\hat a)x˘′(a^) depends on the action only, through the transitions (F.1)–(F.5): demand removes min⁡(b,De)\min(b, D^e)min(b,De) vehicles from a station holding bbb, and an independent Poisson number R^e\hat R^eR^e of charged vehicles arrives, with a rate (3.2) that is linear in the action's expected trips. Each period costs c^2(x˘,a^)+N^(a^)\hat c_2(\breve x, \hat a) + \hat N(\hat a)c^2​(x˘,a^)+N^(a^), where

  • c^2\hat c_2c^2​ (F.6) is a truncated Wasserstein term plus nnn times the optimal value of a min-cost-flow problem between the extended types;
  • N^\hat NN^ (3.4) is the expected holding and shortage cost.

The value function V^(x˘)\hat V(\breve x)V^(x˘) is the infimum over action sequences in A^\hat AA^ of ∑k≥0γk(c^2(x˘k,ak)+N^(ak))\sum_{k \ge 0}\gamma^k(\hat c_2(\breve x^k, a_k) + \hat N(a_k))∑k≥0​γk(c^2​(x˘k,ak​)+N^(ak​)), where x˘0=x˘\breve x^0 = \breve xx˘0=x˘ and x˘k+1=x˘′(ak)\breve x^{k+1} = \breve x'(a_k)x˘k+1=x˘′(ak​).

The algorithm. Given x˘\breve xx˘ and a transient horizon T≥0T \ge 0T≥0, solve the finite program (4.1): choose a~0,…,a~T∈A^\tilde a^0, \dots, \tilde a^T \in \hat Aa~0,…,a~T∈A^ to minimize

∑k=0T−1γk(c^2(x˘k,a~k)+N^(a~k))+γTc^2(x˘T,a~T)+γT1−γ(γc^2(x˘T+1,a~T)+N^(a~T)),\sum_{k=0}^{T-1}\gamma^k\big(\hat c_2(\breve x^k, \tilde a^k) + \hat N(\tilde a^k)\big) + \gamma^T\hat c_2(\breve x^T, \tilde a^T) + \frac{\gamma^T}{1-\gamma}\big(\gamma\hat c_2(\breve x^{T+1}, \tilde a^T) + \hat N(\tilde a^T)\big),k=0∑T−1​γk(c^2​(x˘k,a~k)+N^(a~k))+γTc^2​(x˘T,a~T)+1−γγT​(γc^2​(x˘T+1,a~T)+N^(a~T)),

then play a~0,…,a~T−1\tilde a^0, \dots, \tilde a^{T-1}a~0,…,a~T−1 and repeat a~T\tilde a^Ta~T forever ((4.2)–(4.3)). Call this policy π~\tilde\piπ~ and its discounted cost V^π~(x˘)\hat V_{\tilde\pi}(\breve x)V^π~​(x˘).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.2

For every T≥0T \ge 0T≥0, every x˘∈X˘\breve x \in \breve Xx˘∈X˘ and every minimizer of (4.1),

V^π~(x˘)−V^(x˘)≤γ1−γ C γT,and, if q=0,V^π~(x˘)−V^(x˘)≤C γT,\hat V_{\tilde\pi}(\breve x) - \hat V(\breve x) \le \frac{\gamma}{1-\gamma}\,C\,\gamma^T, \qquad\text{and, if } q = 0,\qquad \hat V_{\tilde\pi}(\breve x) - \hat V(\breve x) \le C\,\gamma^T,V^π~​(x˘)−V^(x˘)≤1−γγ​CγT,and, if q=0,V^π~​(x˘)−V^(x˘)≤CγT,

where

C=2∑e=1e^(nemax⁡(c0,e,ce,0)(Ue−Le)+nmax⁡(c0,e^+e,ce^+e,0)(Ur,e−Lr,e)).C = 2\sum_{e=1}^{\hat e}\Big(n_e\max(c_{0,e}, c_{e,0})(U^e - L^e) + n\max(c_{0,\hat e+e}, c_{\hat e+e,0})(U^{r,e} - L^{r,e})\Big).C=2e=1∑e^​(ne​max(c0,e​,ce,0​)(Ue−Le)+nmax(c0,e^+e​,ce^+e,0​)(Ur,e−Lr,e)).

Milestones

  1. (3.6): V^\hat VV^ satisfies the Bellman equation V^(x˘)=min⁡a^∈A^c^2(x˘,a^)+N^(a^)+γV^(x˘′(a^))\hat V(\breve x) = \min_{\hat a \in \hat A}\hat c_2(\breve x, \hat a) + \hat N(\hat a) + \gamma\hat V(\breve x'(\hat a))V^(x˘)=mina^∈A^​c^2​(x˘,a^)+N^(a^)+γV^(x˘′(a^)) on X˘\breve XX˘, with the minimum attained.
  2. §4.1, p. 26: the cost of π~\tilde\piπ~ equals the optimal value of (4.1).
  3. Lemma H.7: c^2(x˘,a^)≤c^2(x˘,z^)+c^2(z^,a^)\hat c_2(\breve x, \hat a) \le \hat c_2(\breve x, \hat z) + \hat c_2(\hat z, \hat a)c^2​(x˘,a^)≤c^2​(x˘,z^)+c^2​(z^,a^), an action read as a state.
  4. Lemma H.9: c^2(a^1,a^2)≤C/2\hat c_2(\hat a^1, \hat a^2) \le C/2c^2​(a^1,a^2)≤C/2 for all a^1,a^2∈A^\hat a^1, \hat a^2 \in \hat Aa^1,a^2∈A^.
  5. Lemma H.8: under the triangle inequality, there is an optimal policy with π^∗(π^∗(x˘))=π^∗(x˘)\hat\pi^*(\hat\pi^*(\breve x)) = \hat\pi^*(\breve x)π^∗(π^∗(x˘))=π^∗(x˘).
  6. Proposition H.3: for q=0q = 0q=0, the dynamic program has a fixed point x˘f=x˘′(a^f)\breve x^f = \breve x'(\hat a^f)x˘f=x˘′(a^f) with a^f\hat a^fa^f optimal at x˘f\breve x^fx˘f (Definition H.1).

Significance

Theorem 4.2 makes the algorithm a certified approximation scheme. It turns an infinite-horizon problem into a finite program of T+1T + 1T+1 actions, and the loss from doing so decays geometrically in TTT, uniformly over the initial state, with a constant that depends only on the rebalancing costs and the action bounds. For q=0q = 0q=0 the transitions are affine, the program (4.1) becomes a linear program (the paper's Appendix G), and the sharper bound CγTC\gamma^TCγT applies.

The result is proved in the paper (Appendix H), but not formalized anywhere. A formal proof combines a triangle inequality for an LP-valued cost, a dynamic-programming principle with attainment on a compact action set, and a fixed-point argument for a convex deterministic dynamic program. The paper has several small printed slips on this path (for example, Proposition H.10 states the q=0q = 0q=0 constant without the factor 222 that its proof produces); the formal statements fix the corrected reading.

Difficulty

The bound is not a truncation estimate. Cutting the discounted sum at TTT gives a gap proportional to the per-period cost, not to CCC. The comparison has to be made against an optimal action sequence, whose first T+1T + 1T+1 actions are feasible for (4.1). After period TTT, the optimal sequence and π~\tilde\piπ~ diverge, and the cost of that divergence must be controlled by the cost of moving between two actions, which requires:

  • the triangle inequality for c^2\hat c_2c^2​, whose flow component is the value of a linear program, not a closed form;
  • the fact that, once rebalanced to an optimal action, staying there is optimal (Lemma H.8);
  • the bound of Lemma H.9 on the cost between any two feasible actions.

The q=0q = 0q=0 bound needs, in addition, a steady state of the controlled system (Proposition H.3), which rests on a fixed-point theorem for convex deterministic dynamic programs (Flynn 1979). The Bellman equation itself is not free: with V^\hat VV^ defined as an infimum over sequences, attainment of the minimum needs continuity of c^2\hat c_2c^2​, N^\hat NN^, the transition and V^\hat VV^ on the compact action set.

Formalization scope

Types are Fin ê (0-based) and the extended types are Fin (2ê+1) with chg e and dep e for the paper's eee and e^+e\hat e + ee^+e. Level vectors are functions N→R\mathbb N \to \mathbb RN→R that vanish outside their support. P[b−min⁡(b,De)+R^e=d]\mathbb P[b - \min(b, D^e) + \hat R^e = d]P[b−min(b,De)+R^e=d] is the convolution of the demand law with the Poisson law, so DeD^eDe and R^e\hat R^eR^e are independent, as the paper presupposes. V^\hat VV^ is the infimum over the subtype of A^\hat AA^-valued sequences (p. 18 and Proposition F.3), and (3.6) is posed as a milestone rather than used as a definition. X˘\breve XX˘ is formalized as printed on p. A-22. The policy cost is the discounted cost of a~0,…,a~T−1,a~T,a~T,…\tilde a^0, \dots, \tilde a^{T-1}, \tilde a^T, \tilde a^T, \dotsa~0,…,a~T−1,a~T,a~T,…, where a~\tilde aa~ is a hypothesis-given minimizer of (4.1). Everything is time-homogeneous and stated at t=0t = 0t=0.

Standing assumptions, as one predicate on the model: 0≤γ<10 \le \gamma < 10≤γ<1, 0≤q≤10 \le q \le 10≤q≤1, ne≥1n_e \ge 1ne​≥1, w≥0w \ge 0w≥0 with positive normalizers, Le≤UeL^e \le U^eLe≤Ue, 0≤Lr,e≤Ur,e0 \le L^{r,e} \le U^{r,e}0≤Lr,e≤Ur,e, finite second moments of DeD^eDe, the cost assumption ce1,e2≥ce1,e1/2+ce2,e2/2c_{e_1,e_2} \ge c_{e_1,e_1}/2 + c_{e_2,e_2}/2ce1​,e2​​≥ce1​,e1​​/2+ce2​,e2​​/2, c0,0=0c_{0,0} = 0c0,0​=0, ce^+e,e^+e=0c_{\hat e+e,\hat e+e} = 0ce^+e,e^+e​=0. Two additions are disclosed: γ≥0\gamma \ge 0γ≥0, and ce1,e2≥0c_{e_1,e_2} \ge 0ce1​,e2​​≥0, without which Lemma H.9 and the goal fail (the right-hand side could be negative).

Trivializing formalizations are excluded: V^\hat VV^ ranges only over A^\hat AA^-valued sequences, the policy is tied to a minimizer of (4.1) and to no other objective, the flow value is an infimum over a nonempty set bounded below (warehouse routing is always feasible), and CCC uses c0,ec_{0,e}c0,e​, ce,0c_{e,0}ce,0​, c0,e^+ec_{0,\hat e+e}c0,e^+e​, ce^+e,0c_{\hat e+e,0}ce^+e,0​ with the paper's indexing and the factor 222.

Two general objects are separate definitions on which the model is built: a discounted deterministic dynamic program (trajectory, discounted cost, value as an infimum over admissible action sequences) and the uncapacitated transshipment LP on a complete digraph with free nodes. Both are reusable beyond this mission. A complete development further needs Poisson tail sums, subadditivity of the flow value, compactness of A^\hat AA^, a dynamic-programming principle and a fixed-point theorem for convex deterministic programs. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative arguments for the q=0q = 0q=0 fixed point, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Akturk, O. Candogan, V. Gupta, Managing Resources for Shared Micromobility: Approximate Optimality in Large-Scale Systems, Management Science, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.02023 (read as SSRN 4155841, version of 2024-05-22: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4155841)
  • J. Flynn, Steady state policies for deterministic dynamic programs, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 37(1):128–147, 1979 (as cited in the paper's appendix references).
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Functional AnalysisOperations ResearchOptimization+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimality Conditions in Control Problems with Random State Constraints in Probabilistic or Almost Sure Form III: Absolutely Continuous and Singular Multipliers for Almost Sure State ConstraintsResearch Paper

Motivation

Optimal control of partial differential equations under uncertainty asks for a single deterministic control uuu that performs well when the data of the PDE are random. When a constraint on the state must hold, the modeller has to decide how strictly: with high probability (a probabilistic constraint), for almost every realization (an almost-sure constraint), or for every realization in a support set (a robust constraint). C. Geiersbach and R. Henrion (arXiv:2306.03965v2, Math. Oper. Res. 2025) derive optimality conditions for all three forms on a common model problem. This mission covers §3.1 of that paper, the almost-sure case.

Almost-sure state constraints are the natural model when a bound (a temperature, a stress, a concentration) must never be violated, and they appear throughout risk-averse PDE-constrained optimization (Geiersbach and Wollner, SIAM J. Optim. 2021; Geiersbach and Hintermüller, ESAIM:COCV 2022). Their difficulty is functional-analytic: the constraint lives in LP∞(Ω,C(Dˉ))L^\infty_{\mathbb P}(\Omega,\mathcal C(\bar D))LP∞​(Ω,C(Dˉ)), a space whose dual is not a function space, so Lagrange multipliers are a priori only finitely additive objects.

Setting

Let D⊆RdD\subseteq\mathbb R^dD⊆Rd, d∈{1,2,3}d\in\{1,2,3\}d∈{1,2,3}, be open, bounded and of class S: there are γ∈(0,1)\gamma\in(0,1)γ∈(0,1) and r0>0r_0>0r0​>0 with meas⁡(Br(x)∖D)≥γmeas⁡(Br(x))\operatorname{meas}(B_r(x)\setminus D)\ge\gamma\operatorname{meas}(B_r(x))meas(Br​(x)∖D)≥γmeas(Br​(x)) for all x∈∂Dx\in\partial Dx∈∂D and 0<r<r00<r<r_00<r<r0​. For F∈L2(D)F\in L^2(D)F∈L2(D) the Dirichlet problem −Δy=F-\Delta y=F−Δy=F in DDD, y=0y=0y=0 on ∂D\partial D∂D has a unique weak solution y∈H01(D)∩C(Dˉ)y\in H^1_0(D)\cap\mathcal C(\bar D)y∈H01​(D)∩C(Dˉ); the solution map is a continuous linear operator A−1:L2(D)→C(Dˉ)A^{-1}:L^2(D)\to\mathcal C(\bar D)A−1:L2(D)→C(Dˉ).

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mathbb P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space and f~∈LP∞(Ω,L2(D))\tilde f\in L^\infty_{\mathbb P}(\Omega,L^2(D))f~​∈LP∞​(Ω,L2(D)) a random source. For a control u∈L2(D)u\in L^2(D)u∈L2(D) the random state y(⋅,ω)y(\cdot,\omega)y(⋅,ω) solves −Δy(⋅,ω)=u+f~(⋅,ω)-\Delta y(\cdot,\omega)=u+\tilde f(\cdot,\omega)−Δy(⋅,ω)=u+f~​(⋅,ω), y(⋅,ω)=0y(\cdot,\omega)=0y(⋅,ω)=0 on ∂D\partial D∂D. With B\mathcal BB the embedding of L2(D)L^2(D)L2(D) into constant elements of LP∞(Ω,L2(D))L^\infty_{\mathbb P}(\Omega,L^2(D))LP∞​(Ω,L2(D)) and [A−1y](ω)=A−1y(⋅,ω)[\mathcal A^{-1}y](\omega)=A^{-1}y(\cdot,\omega)[A−1y](ω)=A−1y(⋅,ω), the control-to-state operator is S(u)=A−1(Bu+f~)\mathcal S(u)=\mathcal A^{-1}(\mathcal Bu+\tilde f)S(u)=A−1(Bu+f~​) and the constraint map is G(u)=S(u)−α\mathcal G(u)=\mathcal S(u)-\boldsymbol\alphaG(u)=S(u)−α, where α\boldsymbol\alphaα is the constant function α∈R\alpha\in\mathbb Rα∈R. The problem is

min⁡u∈L2(D)F(u)s.t.G(u)∈K,(51)\min_{u\in L^2(D)}F(u)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad\mathcal G(u)\in\mathcal K,\qquad(51)u∈L2(D)min​F(u)s.t.G(u)∈K,(51)

with the cone K={y∈LP∞(Ω,C(Dˉ)):y(x,ω)≤0 on Dˉ, P-a.s.}\mathcal K=\{y\in L^\infty_{\mathbb P}(\Omega,\mathcal C(\bar D)):y(x,\omega)\le0\text{ on }\bar D,\ \mathbb P\text{-a.s.}\}K={y∈LP∞​(Ω,C(Dˉ)):y(x,ω)≤0 on Dˉ, P-a.s.} and its polar K−⊆(LP∞(Ω,C(Dˉ)))∗\mathcal K^-\subseteq(L^\infty_{\mathbb P}(\Omega,\mathcal C(\bar D)))^*K−⊆(LP∞​(Ω,C(Dˉ)))∗. The cost FFF is convex and continuously Fréchet differentiable.

For a separable Banach space XXX, a functional v∈(LP∞(Ω,X))∗v\in(L^\infty_{\mathbb P}(\Omega,X))^*v∈(LP∞​(Ω,X))∗ is absolutely continuous if ⟨v,x⟩=∫Ω⟨x∗(ω),x(ω)⟩ dP\langle v,x\rangle=\int_\Omega\langle x^*(\omega),x(\omega)\rangle\,d\mathbb P⟨v,x⟩=∫Ω​⟨x∗(ω),x(ω)⟩dP for a weakly measurable x∗:Ω→X∗x^*:\Omega\to X^*x∗:Ω→X∗ with ∫∥x∗∥ dP<∞\int\|x^*\|\,d\mathbb P<\infty∫∥x∗∥dP<∞ (the set Λ1(X∗)\Lambda_1(X^*)Λ1​(X∗) of such x∗x^*x∗), and singular if it vanishes on every xxx that vanishes on some FnF_nFn​, for a decreasing sequence of events with P(Fn)→0\mathbb P(F_n)\to0P(Fn​)→0 (the set Λ∘(X∗)\Lambda_\circ(X^*)Λ∘​(X∗)).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.10

Under the constraint qualification 0∈int⁡{G(L2(D))−K}0\in\operatorname{int}\{\mathcal G(L^2(D))-\mathcal K\}0∈int{G(L2(D))−K}, u∗u^*u∗ solves (51) if and only if there are λ∈Λ1(C(Dˉ)∗)\lambda\in\Lambda_1(\mathcal C(\bar D)^*)λ∈Λ1​(C(Dˉ)∗), λ∘∈Λ∘(C(Dˉ)∗)\lambda^\circ\in\Lambda_\circ(\mathcal C(\bar D)^*)λ∘∈Λ∘​(C(Dˉ)∗) and a state y∗y^*y∗ with

DF(u∗)+E[A−∗λ]+B∗A−∗λ∘=0,Ay∗(⋅,ω)=u∗+f~(⋅,ω),DF(u^*)+\mathbb E[A^{-*}\lambda]+\mathcal B^*\mathcal A^{-*}\lambda^\circ=0,\qquad Ay^*(\cdot,\omega)=u^*+\tilde f(\cdot,\omega),DF(u∗)+E[A−∗λ]+B∗A−∗λ∘=0,Ay∗(⋅,ω)=u∗+f~​(⋅,ω), y∗(⋅,ω)≤α,λ(⋅,ω)≥0,⟨λ(⋅,ω),y∗(⋅,ω)−α⟩=0  P-a.s.,λ∘∈K−,⟨λ∘,y∗−α⟩=0.y^*(\cdot,\omega)\le\alpha,\quad\lambda(\cdot,\omega)\ge0,\quad\langle\lambda(\cdot,\omega),y^*(\cdot,\omega)-\boldsymbol\alpha\rangle=0\ \ \mathbb P\text{-a.s.},\qquad\lambda^\circ\in\mathcal K^-,\quad\langle\lambda^\circ,y^*-\boldsymbol\alpha\rangle=0.y∗(⋅,ω)≤α,λ(⋅,ω)≥0,⟨λ(⋅,ω),y∗(⋅,ω)−α⟩=0  P-a.s.,λ∘∈K−,⟨λ∘,y∗−α⟩=0.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3.6: the random state exists, is a.s. unique, lies in LP∞(Ω,C(Dˉ))L^\infty_{\mathbb P}(\Omega,\mathcal C(\bar D))LP∞​(Ω,C(Dˉ)), and obeys the bound (52).
  2. Lemma 3.7: the abstract KKT system (53) with a multiplier λ∗∈(LP∞(Ω,C(Dˉ)))∗\lambda^*\in(L^\infty_{\mathbb P}(\Omega,\mathcal C(\bar D)))^*λ∗∈(LP∞​(Ω,C(Dˉ)))∗.
  3. Theorem 3.9 (Ioffe–Levin): every v∗∈(LP∞(Ω,X))∗v^*\in(L^\infty_{\mathbb P}(\Omega,X))^*v∗∈(LP∞​(Ω,X))∗ splits uniquely as va+v∘v^a+v^\circva+v∘ with ∥v∗∥=∥va∥+∥v∘∥\|v^*\|=\|v^a\|+\|v^\circ\|∥v∗∥=∥va∥+∥v∘∥.
  4. The splitting ⟨λ∗,A−1Bh⟩=E[⟨λ,A−1h⟩]+⟨λ∘,A−1Bh⟩\langle\lambda^*,\mathcal A^{-1}\mathcal Bh\rangle=\mathbb E[\langle\lambda,A^{-1}h\rangle]+\langle\lambda^\circ,\mathcal A^{-1}\mathcal Bh\rangle⟨λ∗,A−1Bh⟩=E[⟨λ,A−1h⟩]+⟨λ∘,A−1Bh⟩.
  5. (57): λ∗∈K−\lambda^*\in\mathcal K^-λ∗∈K− passes to both parts.
  6. (59) and pointwise complementarity: λ(ω)≥0\lambda(\omega)\ge0λ(ω)≥0 and ⟨λ(ω),y∗(ω)−α⟩=0\langle\lambda(\omega),y^*(\omega)-\boldsymbol\alpha\rangle=0⟨λ(ω),y∗(ω)−α⟩=0 almost surely.

Significance

The result. Lemma 3.7 gives a multiplier in the dual of L∞L^\inftyL∞, which cannot be evaluated scenario by scenario. Theorem 3.10 shows that, for this problem, the multiplier consists of an honest random variable λ(ω)∈C(Dˉ)∗\lambda(\omega)\in\mathcal C(\bar D)^*λ(ω)∈C(Dˉ)∗ (a random signed measure on Dˉ\bar DDˉ) satisfying sign and complementarity conditions for almost every realization, plus a singular remainder. This is the form needed to write adjoint equations and to design discretizations and algorithms (Proposition 3.12 of the paper). As Remark 3.11 notes, the derivation does not require reflexivity of the state space, unlike earlier work on LP∞(Ω,X)L^\infty_{\mathbb P}(\Omega,X)LP∞​(Ω,X)-constraints.

Formalizing it. The paper's argument is complete, but it rests on two cited results: the regularity theory behind Lemma 1.2/3.6 (Stampacchia-type continuity of weak solutions on class-S domains, Kinderlehrer–Stampacchia) and the Ioffe–Levin decomposition of (LP∞(Ω,X))∗(L^\infty_{\mathbb P}(\Omega,X))^*(LP∞​(Ω,X))∗ (Ioffe–Levin, Appendix 1, Theorem 3, and Levin 1974). Neither is in Mathlib. A formal development produces machine-checked versions of both, of a Robinson-type KKT theorem in Banach spaces, and of the multiplier refinement itself. None of these results has a machine-checked proof as far as the platform's catalog shows.

Difficulty

The obvious route is to apply the Riesz representation pointwise in ω\omegaω. It fails: (LP∞(Ω,C(Dˉ)))∗(L^\infty_{\mathbb P}(\Omega,\mathcal C(\bar D)))^*(LP∞​(Ω,C(Dˉ)))∗ contains purely finitely additive functionals that are not given by any integrand, so λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ has no density in general. The decomposition theorem isolates them, and the proof of Theorem 3.10 must then show that the sign condition λ∗∈K−\lambda^*\in\mathcal K^-λ∗∈K− and the complementarity condition pass to each part separately. The step from E[⟨λ,y⟩]≤0\mathbb E[\langle\lambda,y\rangle]\le0E[⟨λ,y⟩]≤0 for all y∈Ky\in\mathcal Ky∈K to "λ(ω)≥0\lambda(\omega)\ge0λ(ω)≥0 for almost every ω\omegaω, simultaneously for all nonnegative test functions" requires the separability of C(Dˉ)\mathcal C(\bar D)C(Dˉ); a version with a null set depending on the test function is weaker and is not the statement. Lemma 3.6 needs C(Dˉ)\mathcal C(\bar D)C(Dˉ)-regularity of weak solutions, which is where class S and d≤3d\le3d≤3 enter.

Formalization scope

Rd\mathbb R^dRd is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d). L2(D)L^2(D)L2(D) is Lp ℝ 2 (volume.restrict D) and LP∞(Ω,X)L^\infty_{\mathbb P}(\Omega,X)LP∞​(Ω,X) is Lp X ⊤ P; their elements are a.e. classes, so every pointwise statement in ω\omegaω is stated P\mathbb PP-a.s. C(Dˉ)\mathcal C(\bar D)C(Dˉ) is C(closure D, ℝ) with [CompactSpace (closure D)] as an instance argument (implied by boundedness). Weak derivatives use the published HunterPDE.Shared.HasWeakDeriv; a weak solution in H01(D)∩C(Dˉ)H^1_0(D)\cap\mathcal C(\bar D)H01​(D)∩C(Dˉ) is encoded as continuity on Dˉ\bar DDˉ, zero boundary values, L2L^2L2 weak gradient and the weak form. A−1A^{-1}A−1 is a hypothesis: a continuous linear map L2(D)→C(Dˉ)L^2(D)\to\mathcal C(\bar D)L2(D)→C(Dˉ) whose values are weak solutions. "≤0\le0≤0 a.e. in DDD" for a function continuous on Dˉ\bar DDˉ is read as "≤0\le0≤0 on Dˉ\bar DDˉ"; "λ(⋅,ω)≥0\lambda(\cdot,\omega)\ge0λ(⋅,ω)≥0" as positivity of the functional. "Solution of (51)" is a global minimizer. (56a) is stated applied to every direction hhh.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: the state operator is tied to the PDE, not an arbitrary bounded operator; the multipliers carry their sign and complementarity conditions; absolutely continuous functionals require a weakly measurable, integrable density; singular functionals are concentrated on a decreasing sequence of events of vanishing probability, not merely "not absolutely continuous"; optimality is global.

Needed infrastructure: Lax–Milgram on H01(D)H^1_0(D)H01​(D) and continuity of weak solutions (Lemma 3.6); a KKT theorem under Robinson's constraint qualification (Lemma 3.7); the Yosida–Hewitt decomposition for finitely additive measures and a weak*-measurable representation of L1(Ω,X)∗L^1(\Omega,X)^*L1(Ω,X)∗ (Theorem 3.9). The decomposition theorem is reusable far beyond this mission; contributions toward any of these are welcome.

Selected references

  • C. Geiersbach, R. Henrion, Optimality conditions in control problems with random state constraints in probabilistic or almost-sure form, arXiv:2306.03965v2, 2024; Math. Oper. Res. 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.03965
  • A. D. Ioffe, V. L. Levin, Subdifferentials of convex functions, Trudy Moskov. Mat. Obshch. 26, 3–73, 1972 (Appendix 1, Theorem 3).
  • V. L. Levin, The Lebesgue decomposition for functionals on the vector-function space LX∞L^\infty_XLX∞​, Funct. Anal. Appl. 8(4), 314–317, 1974. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01075488
  • K. Yosida, E. Hewitt, Finitely additive measures, Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 72, 1952. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9947-1952-0045194-X
  • J. F. Bonnans, A. Shapiro, Perturbation Analysis of Optimization Problems, Springer, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1394-9
  • C. Geiersbach, W. Wollner, Optimality conditions for convex stochastic optimization problems in Banach spaces with almost sure state constraints, SIAM J. Optim. 31(4), 2455–2480, 2021.
  • C. Geiersbach, M. Hintermüller, Optimality conditions and Moreau–Yosida regularization for almost sure state constraints, ESAIM: COCV 28, Paper No. 80, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1051/cocv/2022070
  • D. Kinderlehrer, G. Stampacchia, An Introduction to Variational Inequalities and Their Applications, Academic Press, 1980 (Chapter II, Appendices B and C). https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898719451
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Retention or Acquisition? Behavior-Based Quality Disclosure II: Behavior-Based Disclosure Raises Total Two-Period Profits Exactly When the Disclosure Cost Exceeds a CutoffResearch Paper

Motivation

Firms that sell to the same customers over time learn who bought from whom. Behavior-based pricing (BBP) — charging a firm's own past customers one price and the rival's past customers another — has been studied since Fudenberg and Tirole (2000) and Villas-Boas (1999). A second instrument is the disclosure of product quality: free samples, demonstrations and trial versions reveal the quality of a new product, at a cost per customer reached. With purchase histories, a firm can disclose differently to its own customers and to the rival's: behavior-based disclosure (BBD). The classical disclosure model is Jovanovic (1982), in which costly disclosure leads a firm to reveal quality only above a threshold.

Zhang and Li (2025) combine the two instruments in a two-period Hotelling duopoly and compare BBD with uniform disclosure. Their Proposition 1 shows that BBD always raises second-period profits; this mission is about the whole game, where the answer depends on the disclosure cost.

Setting

A unit mass of customers is uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1][0,1]; firm A is at 000, firm B at 111, the transportation cost is 111, marginal costs are 000 and the market is fully covered.

Period 1. The firms charge prices pa1,pb1≥0p_{a1},p_{b1}\ge 0pa1​,pb1​≥0. The first-period purchase splits the line at x1x_1x1​: A's old customers are [0,x1][0,x_1][0,x1​] (A's turf), B's are [x1,1][x_1,1][x1​,1] (B's turf).

Period 2. Each firm iii launches a new product of quality qiq_iqi​, with qa,qbq_a,q_bqa​,qb​ independent and uniform on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. A firm discloses its quality to a segment iff it exceeds a disclosure threshold q^\hat qq^​; disclosing costs ccc per customer reached. A segment that sees no disclosure believes the quality is q^/2\hat q/2q^​/2. Under uniform disclosure each firm has one threshold q^i\hat q_iq^​i​ for the whole line; under BBD it has q^io\hat q_{io}q^​io​ for its own customers and q^in\hat q_{in}q^​in​ for the rival's. On each turf the two firms then play a price game (A charges paop_{ao}pao​ and B charges pbnp_{bn}pbn​ on A's turf; panp_{an}pan​ and pbop_{bo}pbo​ on B's turf), and customers stay or switch according to their beliefs and prices.

Forward-looking customers. The share x1x_1x1​ is the location of the marginal consumer, who compares the two first-period options including the expected second-period surplus of staying or switching ((6) for uniform disclosure, (15) for BBD):

−x1−pa1+max⁡{−(1−x1)+E(q~bn−pbn∗), −x1+E(q~ao−pao∗)}=−(1−x1)−pb1+max⁡{−x1+E(q~an−pan∗), −(1−x1)+E(q~bo−pbo∗)}.-x_1-p_{a1}+\max\{-(1-x_1)+E(\tilde q_{bn}-p^*_{bn}),\,-x_1+E(\tilde q_{ao}-p^*_{ao})\}=-(1-x_1)-p_{b1}+\max\{-x_1+E(\tilde q_{an}-p^*_{an}),\,-(1-x_1)+E(\tilde q_{bo}-p^*_{bo})\}.−x1​−pa1​+max{−(1−x1​)+E(q~​bn​−pbn∗​),−x1​+E(q~​ao​−pao∗​)}=−(1−x1​)−pb1​+max{−x1​+E(q~​an​−pan∗​),−(1−x1​)+E(q~​bo​−pbo∗​)}.

Two-period profits (8) are Πa=pa1x1+E(πa2)\Pi_a=p_{a1}x_1+E(\pi_{a2})Πa​=pa1​x1​+E(πa2​) and Πb=pb1(1−x1)+E(πb2)\Pi_b=p_{b1}(1-x_1)+E(\pi_{b2})Πb​=pb1​(1−x1​)+E(πb2​), with E(πi2)E(\pi_{i2})E(πi2​) the ex ante second-period profit at share x1x_1x1​. A symmetric subgame-perfect equilibrium is a common first-period price p∗p^*p∗ together with a second-period equilibrium at every share and a consistent share at every price pair, such that neither firm gains from any other nonnegative first-period price. Its total profits are Πa∗,Πb∗\Pi^*_a,\Pi^*_bΠa∗​,Πb∗​.

The standing assumption is 0<c<5/360<c<5/360<c<5/36 (p. 8515).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3(a)

There is a cutoff cl∈(0,5/36)c_l\in(0,5/36)cl​∈(0,5/36) such that for every c∈(0,5/36)c\in(0,5/36)c∈(0,5/36), symmetric subgame-perfect equilibria exist under both regimes and, for any two of them,

c>cl  ⇒  Πi∗,U<Πi∗,BBD,c<cl  ⇒  Πi∗,BBD<Πi∗,U(i=a,b).c>c_l\;\Rightarrow\;\Pi^{*,U}_i<\Pi^{*,BBD}_i,\qquad c<c_l\;\Rightarrow\;\Pi^{*,BBD}_i<\Pi^{*,U}_i\qquad (i=a,b).c>cl​⇒Πi∗,U​<Πi∗,BBD​,c<cl​⇒Πi∗,BBD​<Πi∗,U​(i=a,b).

The value of clc_lcl​ is left unfixed, as in the paper.

Milestones

  1. (5) and (14): the ex ante second-period profit as a function of x1x_1x1​ and the equilibrium thresholds, in region 1, e.g. under BBD
E(πa2)=(1+2x1)2+(3−4x1)218+4−q^ao3−q^an3−q^bo3−q^bn3216−c [1−x1q^ao−(1−x1)q^an].E(\pi_{a2})=\tfrac{(1+2x_1)^2+(3-4x_1)^2}{18}+\tfrac{4-\hat q_{ao}^3-\hat q_{an}^3-\hat q_{bo}^3-\hat q_{bn}^3}{216}-c\,[1-x_1\hat q_{ao}-(1-x_1)\hat q_{an}].E(πa2​)=18(1+2x1​)2+(3−4x1​)2​+2164−q^​ao3​−q^​an3​−q^​bo3​−q^​bn3​​−c[1−x1​q^​ao​−(1−x1​)q^​an​].
  1. (7) and (16): in region 1 the first-period share is x1=12+38(pb1−pa1)x_1=\tfrac12+\tfrac38(p_{b1}-p_{a1})x1​=21​+83​(pb1​−pa1​) under both regimes.
  2. (9) and (17): existence of symmetric equilibria, and their prices
p∗,U=23(2−c+c1+27c),p∗,BBD=43−c(5+54c)31+12c+c(5+162c)31+108c,p^{*,U}=\tfrac23\big(2-c+\tfrac{c}{\sqrt{1+27c}}\big),\qquad p^{*,BBD}=\tfrac43-\tfrac{c(5+54c)}{3\sqrt{1+12c}}+\tfrac{c(5+162c)}{3\sqrt{1+108c}},p∗,U=32​(2−c+1+27c​c​),p∗,BBD=34​−31+12c​c(5+54c)​+31+108c​c(5+162c)​,

with share x1∗=12x_1^*=\tfrac12x1∗​=21​. 4. Table 1, total profits, both regimes, in closed form. 5. Proposition 2: a cutoff ch∈(0,5/36)c_h\in(0,5/36)ch​∈(0,5/36) across which the comparison of first-period prices and profits reverses.

Significance

Proposition 3(a) is the paper's answer to the managerial question in its title. BBD lets a firm disclose to its own customers more often than to the rival's (retention-focused disclosure), which improves the efficiency of disclosure and raises second-period profits. In the first period, however, BBD changes how hard firms compete for customers, and when disclosure is cheap the first-period loss dominates. The result locates the sign change of the total effect at a single cutoff, and together with Proposition 2 (cl<chc_l<c_hcl​<ch​) it separates three regimes of ccc: total profits fall, total profits rise despite lower first-period profits, and both rise.

None of these results is formalized anywhere. The paper's proofs are in an Online Appendix and its displayed formulas are the end points of long computations. A complete development would produce:

  • a machine-checked solution of a two-period Hotelling model with behavior-based pricing, including corner regions of the second-period price game;
  • a costly-disclosure equilibrium in the Jovanovic style;
  • a verified single-crossing analysis of algebraic functions of ccc.

Difficulty

The model nests three equilibrium notions: a clamped price game on each turf, threshold disclosure as a best response to the rival and to the induced beliefs, and first-period pricing with forward-looking customers. The first-order condition behind (9) and (17) involves the derivative of E(πa2)E(\pi_{a2})E(πa2​) in x1x_1x1​, and every threshold, including the rival's, moves with x1x_1x1​; treating the rival's thresholds as fixed gives a wrong price.

The symmetric first-order condition alone does not settle the equilibrium. A deviation in first-period price can push the share outside the region where all second-period prices are interior, into the corner regions 2 and 3 of Lemma 1/2, where the second-period profit has a different form. The paper checks these deviations only in its Online Appendix.

The final comparison is a sign analysis of an expression with three different square roots on (0,5/36)(0,5/36)(0,5/36). The difference of total profits is small throughout: for example, about −5⋅10−4-5\cdot10^{-4}−5⋅10−4 at c=0.01c=0.01c=0.01 and 3.5⋅10−33.5\cdot10^{-3}3.5⋅10−3 at c=0.1c=0.1c=0.1.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. Qualities are integrated by iterated interval integrals over [0,1][0,1][0,1]. The base value vvv cancels and is omitted; full coverage is built in. Prices are nonnegative, turf shares are clamped to the turf, and the nondisclosure belief stays q^/2\hat q/2q^​/2 when a firm considers a deviation.
  • Equilibria, not formulas. Second-period prices are Nash equilibria of the clamped turf games for every belief pair in [0,1]2[0,1]^2[0,1]2. Thresholds are best responses ("disclose iff q>q^q>\hat qq>q^​" is optimal), never roots of the indifference equation. The share satisfies (6)/(15) as printed, a maximum of two expectations, with corner shares x1∈{0,1}x_1\in\{0,1\}x1​∈{0,1} read through nearby interior shares (at an endpoint one turf is empty and its second-period prices are not pinned down, so (6)/(15) is not evaluated there). First-period deviations range over all nonnegative prices, and the second-period profile is an equilibrium at every share, including shares reached only after a deviation.
  • Readings. "In region 1" for (5), (7), (14), (16) means that every belief pair on the support is in region 1: 12−q^bn/8<x1<12+q^an/8\tfrac12-\hat q_{bn}/8<x_1<\tfrac12+\hat q_{an}/821​−q^​bn​/8<x1​<21​+q^​an​/8 (BBD), 12−q^b/8<x1<12+q^a/8\tfrac12-\hat q_b/8<x_1<\tfrac12+\hat q_a/821​−q^​b​/8<x1​<21​+q^​a​/8 (uniform). Table 1's uniform total profit is used; the sentence on p. 8517 prints 1+72c\sqrt{1+72c}1+72c​ for 1+27c\sqrt{1+27c}1+27c​.
  • Ruled out. Hard-wiring x1=12x_1=\tfrac12x1​=21​, defining thresholds or prices by their closed forms, or stating the goal on the Table 1 formulas alone would each trivialize the mission; the cutoff is quantified before ccc and lies strictly inside (0,5/36)(0,5/36)(0,5/36), and existence of equilibria is part of the goal.
  • Not posed. Proposition 3(b), (c) (consumer surplus and welfare are defined in the paper only by their Table 1 values) and Proposition 4.
  • Needed. Piecewise-quadratic integrals over the belief support; Nash equilibria of clamped linear-demand games; existence of a consistent first-period share (an intermediate-value argument on a suitable equilibrium selection); and sign analysis with square roots. The second-period model is the same as in the companion mission on Proposition 1, and lemmas about it are reusable there. Contributions of any of the milestones, of Lemma 1/2 in all regions, or of the corner-region versions of (4), (5), (13), (14) are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Zhang and K. J. Li, Retention or Acquisition? Behavior-Based Quality Disclosure, Management Science 71(10), 8510–8525, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01081
  • D. Fudenberg and J. Tirole, Customer Poaching and Brand Switching (cited in Zhang and Li as "Customer poaching and firm switching"), RAND Journal of Economics 31(4), 634–657, 2000.
  • J. M. Villas-Boas, Dynamic Competition with Customer Recognition, RAND Journal of Economics 30(4), 604–631, 1999.
  • B. Jovanovic, Truthful Disclosure of Information, Bell Journal of Economics 13(1), 36–44, 1982.
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Linear algebraOperations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

A Hierarchical Approach to Robust Stability of Multiclass Queueing Networks: Chen-S at Every Static-Priority Corner Implies Chen-S for Every Queue-Ratio PolicyResearch Paper

Motivation

A multiclass queueing network routes jobs of several classes through shared stations. Whether such a network is stable depends on the scheduling policy and not only on the load: the Lu–Kumar and Rybko–Stolyar examples are unstable under a static-priority policy with every station loaded below capacity (Bramson, Stability of Queueing Networks, 2008). A network operator who does not control, or does not know, the policy in use therefore wants robust stability: stability under every policy of a given family.

Zhao, Gurvich and Hasenbein (arXiv:2303.17746v3) study robust stability over the family of queue-ratio policies, which steer each station's workload towards fixed proportions across its classes and contain the static-priority and quadratic max-weight policies as special cases. Their analysis is hierarchical. Under a queue-ratio policy the fluid model first reaches state-space collapse and then follows a linear Skorohod problem. This mission formalizes the second layer: a purely algebraic sufficient condition for stability of that Skorohod problem holds for every queue-ratio policy as soon as it holds at the finitely many static-priority "corners".

Timeline. Dai (1995) reduced stability of the queueing network to stability of its fluid model. Delgado (2010) related fluid stability under state-space collapse to stability of a Skorohod problem. Chen (1996) gave the Chen-S\mathcal SS sufficient condition for stability of a linear Skorohod problem. Zhao, Gurvich and Hasenbein (preprint 2023, Operations Research 2025) proved that Chen-S\mathcal SS is inherited from the static-priority corners (their Theorem 4).

Setting

Fix an open network with JJJ stations and KKK classes. Class kkk is served at station s(k)s(k)s(k), and the J×KJ\times KJ×K constituency matrix CCC has Cjk=1C_{jk}=1Cjk​=1 if s(k)=js(k)=js(k)=j and 000 otherwise. M=diag⁡(m1,…,mK)M=\operatorname{diag}(m_1,\dots,m_K)M=diag(m1​,…,mK​) holds the mean service times mk>0m_k>0mk​>0. PPP is the substochastic routing matrix, and α≥0\alpha\ge 0α≥0 the vector of exogenous arrival rates. The network is open: I+P+P2+⋯I+P+P^2+\cdotsI+P+P2+⋯ converges and I−P⊤I-P^\topI−P⊤ is invertible. Then Q=(I−P⊤)−1Q=(I-P^\top)^{-1}Q=(I−P⊤)−1, λ=Qα\lambda=Q\alphaλ=Qα and the traffic intensities are ρ=CMλ\rho=CM\lambdaρ=CMλ.

A ratio matrix is a K×JK\times JK×J matrix Δ\DeltaΔ with Δkj=δk≥0\Delta_{kj}=\delta_k\ge 0Δkj​=δk​≥0 if s(k)=js(k)=js(k)=j and Δkj=0\Delta_{kj}=0Δkj​=0 otherwise, normalized by

CMΔ=I.CM\Delta=I.CMΔ=I.

It is static-priority if at each station jjj exactly one class kkk with s(k)=js(k)=js(k)=j has Δkj=1/mk\Delta_{kj}=1/m_kΔkj​=1/mk​ and all others have Δlj=0\Delta_{lj}=0Δlj​=0. For a ratio matrix with CMQΔCMQ\DeltaCMQΔ invertible, the reflection matrix and drift are

RΔ=(CMQΔ)−1,θΔ=RΔ(ρ−e).R_\Delta=(CMQ\Delta)^{-1},\qquad \theta_\Delta=R_\Delta(\rho-e).RΔ​=(CMQΔ)−1,θΔ​=RΔ​(ρ−e).

A square matrix RRR is an S-matrix if Ru>0Ru>0Ru>0 for some u>0u>0u>0, and completely-S\mathcal SS if every principal sub-matrix is an S-matrix. The pair (R,θ)(R,\theta)(R,θ) is Chen-S\mathcal SS if RRR is completely-S\mathcal SS and some h>0h>0h>0 satisfies ha⊤[θa+Rabu]<0h_a^\top[\theta_a+R_{ab}u]<0ha⊤​[θa​+Rab​u]<0 for every partition (a,b)(a,b)(a,b) of the stations with a≠∅a\neq\emptyseta=∅ and every u≥0u\ge 0u≥0 with θb+Rbu=0\theta_b+R_bu=0θb​+Rb​u=0. Ratio matrices are neighbors if they differ in at most one column.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4

If for every static-priority Δ\DeltaΔ the matrix CMQΔCMQ\DeltaCMQΔ is invertible and (RΔ,θΔ)(R_\Delta,\theta_\Delta)(RΔ​,θΔ​) is Chen-S\mathcal SS, and all det⁡(CMQΔ)\det(CMQ\Delta)det(CMQΔ) over static-priority Δ\DeltaΔ have one sign, then

∀ Δ ratio matrix:CMQΔ invertible and (RΔ,θΔ) Chen-S.\forall\,\Delta\ \text{ratio matrix}:\quad CMQ\Delta\ \text{invertible and}\ (R_\Delta,\theta_\Delta)\ \text{Chen-}\mathcal S.∀Δ ratio matrix:CMQΔ invertible and (RΔ​,θΔ​) Chen-S.

The network is arbitrary: any JJJ, KKK, routing and service times.

Milestones

For neighbors Δ1,Δ2\Delta_1,\Delta_2Δ1​,Δ2​ and Δ3=λΔ1+(1−λ)Δ2\Delta_3=\lambda\Delta_1+(1-\lambda)\Delta_2Δ3​=λΔ1​+(1−λ)Δ2​ with λ∈(0,1)\lambda\in(0,1)λ∈(0,1):

  • Lemma 4. The kkkth rows of RΔ1R_{\Delta_1}RΔ1​​ and RΔ2R_{\Delta_2}RΔ2​​ are proportional with ratio det⁡(CMQΔ2)/det⁡(CMQΔ1)\det(CMQ\Delta_2)/\det(CMQ\Delta_1)det(CMQΔ2​)/det(CMQΔ1​), and RΔ3R_{\Delta_3}RΔ3​​ is a rank-one update of either.
  • Theorem 6. RΔ3=βRΔ1+(1−β)RΔ2R_{\Delta_3}=\beta R_{\Delta_1}+(1-\beta)R_{\Delta_2}RΔ3​​=βRΔ1​​+(1−β)RΔ2​​, with β=λdet⁡RΔ2/(λdet⁡RΔ2+(1−λ)det⁡RΔ1)\beta=\lambda\det R_{\Delta_2}/(\lambda\det R_{\Delta_2}+(1-\lambda)\det R_{\Delta_1})β=λdetRΔ2​​/(λdetRΔ2​​+(1−λ)detRΔ1​​).
  • Lemma 3. Invertibility of CMQΔ3CMQ\Delta_3CMQΔ3​ when the determinants of CMQΔ1CMQ\Delta_1CMQΔ1​ and CMQΔ2CMQ\Delta_2CMQΔ2​ share a sign.
  • Theorem 5(i), (ii). Completely-S\mathcal SS, and Chen-S\mathcal SS of (RΔ,θΔ)(R_\Delta,\theta_\Delta)(RΔ​,θΔ​), pass from Δ1,Δ2\Delta_1,\Delta_2Δ1​,Δ2​ to Δ3\Delta_3Δ3​.
  • Theorem 3. The completely-S\mathcal SS analogue of the goal.

Significance

By Chen's theorem, Chen-S\mathcal SS of (RΔ,θΔ)(R_\Delta,\theta_\Delta)(RΔ​,θΔ​) makes the Skorohod problem of the policy Δ\DeltaΔ stable. Theorem 4 reduces this requirement over a continuum of policies to a finite check, one per static-priority policy, and the paper combines it with a state-space-collapse result to certify robust queue-ratio stability of the DHV, push-started Lu–Kumar and Lu–Kumar networks. The orthogonal convexity of Theorem 5 is of independent interest: the Chen-S\mathcal SS region of ratio matrices is in general not convex, yet it is convex along every axis-parallel segment.

The results are proved on paper and nothing in this mission has been machine-checked. A formal development checks the matrix algebra (adjugate and Sherman–Morrison identities, determinant-sign arguments) and settles the details the paper leaves out. The proof of Theorem 5(ii) is given there only as "an identical argument" to that of part (i). Theorem 6's claim β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1) needs a same-sign hypothesis that the page omits (see below).

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails because the convexity is only orthogonal. The set of ratio matrices is a product of simplices. A convex combination of two arbitrary Chen-S\mathcal SS ratio matrices need not be Chen-S\mathcal SS, and the inverse RΔ=(CMQΔ)−1R_\Delta=(CMQ\Delta)^{-1}RΔ​=(CMQΔ)−1 is not affine in Δ\DeltaΔ. Two pieces of structure must be found and exploited instead. Moving one column of Δ\DeltaΔ changes CMQΔCMQ\DeltaCMQΔ in one column, which makes RΔR_\DeltaRΔ​ move along a line in a reparametrized coordinate β\betaβ. Then completely-S\mathcal SS and Chen-S\mathcal SS, whose definitions quantify over all partitions and over the solution sets {u≥0:θb+Rbu=0}\{u\ge 0:\theta_b+R_bu=0\}{u≥0:θb​+Rb​u=0}, must be shown to survive that line. The latter sets move with β\betaβ in a way that does not follow from convexity of either endpoint's set. Passing from neighbors to all ratio matrices needs a column-by-column descent through faces of the product of simplices. Invertibility must be maintained along the way, which is where the common determinant sign at the corners enters.

Formalization scope

  • Stations are Fin J, classes Fin K; the paper's index iii is Lean's i−1i-1i−1. The network is a structure Network J K with fields sss, mmm, PPP, α\alphaα and the hypotheses m>0m>0m>0, P≥0P\ge 0P≥0, row sums of PPP at most one, α≥0\alpha\ge 0α≥0, summability of PnP^nPn, and invertibility of I−P⊤I-P^\topI−P⊤. The remark K>JK>JK>J and the renewal arrivals are not used.
  • CCC, M=diag⁡(m)M=\operatorname{diag}(m)M=diag(m), Q=(I−P⊤)−1Q=(I-P^\top)^{-1}Q=(I−P⊤)−1, λ=Qα\lambda=Q\alphaλ=Qα, ρ=CMλ\rho=CM\lambdaρ=CMλ are definitions computed from the network. RΔR_\DeltaRΔ​ and θΔ\theta_\DeltaθΔ​ are definitions computed from Δ\DeltaΔ; θΔ\theta_\DeltaθΔ​ is never a free vector.
  • Ratio matrices include δ≥0\delta\ge 0δ≥0. Without it the goal would assert extrapolation outside the polytope of ratio matrices.
  • Lean's matrix inverse is 000 on singular matrices. Every hypothesis on a corner and the goal's conclusion state invertibility of CMQΔCMQ\DeltaCMQΔ explicitly.
  • Partitions are a : Finset (Fin J) with b=acb=a^{\mathrm c}b=ac; sub-matrices are indexed by the subtypes. Chen-S\mathcal SS quantifies over a≠∅a\neq\emptyseta=∅ (for a=∅a=\emptyseta=∅ the condition reads 0<00<00<0 and would make Chen-S\mathcal SS unsatisfiable and the goal vacuous); b=∅b=\emptysetb=∅ is allowed. Principal sub-matrices in completely-S\mathcal SS are those of nonempty index sets.
  • "All determinants have the same sign" is a single sign for all corners: either all are positive or all are negative.
  • The "Then, Δ1,Δ2,Δ3\Delta_1,\Delta_2,\Delta_3Δ1​,Δ2​,Δ3​ are ratio-matrix neighbors" sentence of Lemmas 3, 4 and Theorems 5, 6 is kept as a first conjunct.
  • Deviation. Theorem 6 asserts β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1) under invertibility alone, which fails when det⁡RΔ1\det R_{\Delta_1}detRΔ1​​ and det⁡RΔ2\det R_{\Delta_2}detRΔ2​​ have opposite signs. That clause is stated under det⁡RΔ1det⁡RΔ2>0\det R_{\Delta_1}\det R_{\Delta_2}>0detRΔ1​​detRΔ2​​>0; the two identities are stated unconditionally.

A complete development needs the adjugate and determinant identities for matrices differing in one column, a Sherman–Morrison formula for rank-one updates, and a decomposition of ratio matrices along faces of a product of simplices. The definitions of S-matrices, completely-S\mathcal SS and Chen-S\mathcal SS are reusable for other work on reflected processes. Proofs of the milestones, alternative proofs of Theorem 5 that avoid linear-programming duality, and counterexamples showing a hypothesis cannot be dropped are all welcome.

Selected references

  • Y. Zhao, I. Gurvich, J. Hasenbein, A Hierarchical Approach to Robust Stability of Multiclass Queueing Networks, arXiv:2303.17746v3, 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.17746
  • H. Chen, A sufficient condition for the positive recurrence of a semimartingale reflecting Brownian motion in an orthant, Annals of Applied Probability 6(3):758–765, 1996 (reference [5] of the source).
  • J. G. Dai, On positive Harris recurrence of multiclass queueing networks: a unified approach via fluid limit models, Annals of Applied Probability 5(1):49–77, 1995 (reference [10] of the source).
  • R. Delgado, State space collapse and stability of queueing networks, Mathematical Methods of Operations Research 72(3):477–499, 2010 (reference [16] of the source).
  • M. Bramson, Stability of Queueing Networks, Lecture Notes in Mathematics 1950, Springer, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-68896-9
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Simple and Explicit Bounds for Multiserver Queues with 1/(1−ρ) Scaling: With More Than 2.5 Finite Service Moments, GI/GI/n Steady-State Queue Tails and Delay Probability Obey Explicit BoundsResearch Paper

Motivation

Multi-server queues model call centres, hospital wards, cloud server pools and any system in which nnn identical servers work through one first-come-first-served (FCFS) line. Capacity planning for such systems needs bounds on the steady-state queue length and on the probability of delay (the chance that an arriving job finds every server busy) that are explicit, hold for every nnn, and stay informative as the load approaches capacity.

For a single server, Kingman's bound (Kingman 1962, ref. [89] of the paper) gives exactly this: the mean wait is at most a multiple of 1/(1−ρ)1/(1-\rho)1/(1−ρ) that depends only on the first two moments of the inter-arrival and service times. For nnn servers with general distributions (the GI/GI/n queue), no comparable explicit bound was known.

Timeline.

  • 1962: Kingman's single-server bound.
  • 1981: Halfin and Whitt identify the heavy-traffic regime n(1−ρ)→β\sqrt n(1-\rho)\to\betan​(1−ρ)→β in which the probability of delay is nondegenerate (Halfin and Whitt 1981).
  • 2013: Gamarnik and Goldberg prove (for the GI/G/n queue) that the steady-state number waiting is stochastically dominated by the supremum of a process built from independent renewal processes (Gamarnik and Goldberg 2013). Their bound is not explicit and needs more than two service moments.
  • 2017–2025: Li and Goldberg derive explicit bounds with 1/(1−ρ)1/(1-\rho)1/(1−ρ) scaling under E[A2]<∞\mathbb E[A^2]<\inftyE[A2]<∞ and E[S2+ϵ]<∞\mathbb E[S^{2+\epsilon}]<\inftyE[S2+ϵ]<∞ (arXiv:1706.04628, Mathematics of Operations Research 2025).

Setting

A GI/GI/n queue has n≥1n\ge1n≥1 identical servers and one FCFS line. Jobs arrive with i.i.d. inter-arrival times distributed as a nonnegative random variable AAA. Each job needs an i.i.d. service time distributed as a nonnegative random variable SSS, independent of the arrivals. An arriving job starts service at the first server to become free, in order of arrival.

Write μA=1/E[A]\mu_A=1/\mathbb E[A]μA​=1/E[A] and μS=1/E[S]\mu_S=1/\mathbb E[S]μS​=1/E[S] for the arrival and service rates, and ρ=μA/(nμS)\rho=\mu_A/(n\mu_S)ρ=μA​/(nμS​) for the traffic intensity. The moment index is

r∗=sup⁡{r:E[Sr]<∞},r^*=\sup\{r:\mathbb E[S^r]<\infty\},r∗=sup{r:E[Sr]<∞},

which may be +∞+\infty+∞. Normalised moments are E[(AμA)2]\mathbb E[(A\mu_A)^2]E[(AμA​)2] and E[(SμS)r]\mathbb E[(S\mu_S)^r]E[(SμS​)r].

Q(t)Q(t)Q(t) is the number of jobs in the system (in service and waiting) at time ttt. "Q(∞)Q(\infty)Q(∞) exists" means that, whatever the initial condition, Q(t)Q(t)Q(t) converges in distribution as t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞ to a random variable Q(∞)Q(\infty)Q(∞). The steady-state number waiting is L(∞)=max⁡(0,Q(∞)−n)L(\infty)=\max(0,Q(\infty)-n)L(∞)=max(0,Q(∞)−n), and the steady-state probability of delay is P(Q(∞)≥n)\mathbb P(Q(\infty)\ge n)P(Q(∞)≥n).

The milestones also use equilibrium renewal processes. For a nonnegative XXX with finite mean, its equilibrium law R(X)R(X)R(X) satisfies P(R>y)=1E[X]∫y∞P(X>z) dz\mathbb P(R>y)=\frac1{\mathbb E[X]}\int_y^\infty\mathbb P(X>z)\,dzP(R>y)=E[X]1​∫y∞​P(X>z)dz. An equilibrium renewal process with renewals distributed as XXX has its first renewal interval distributed as R(X)R(X)R(X) and the later ones distributed as XXX.

Ae(t)A_e(t)Ae​(t) counts the renewals in [0,t][0,t][0,t] of such a process for AAA. Ne,1(t),…,Ne,n(t)N_{e,1}(t),\dots,N_{e,n}(t)Ne,1​(t),…,Ne,n​(t) count those of nnn independent such processes for SSS, also independent of AeA_eAe​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (pp. 9–10)

Assume

  • E[A2]<∞\mathbb E[A^2]<\inftyE[A2]<∞;
  • r∗>2.5r^*>2.5r∗>2.5;
  • μA<nμS\mu_A<n\mu_SμA​<nμS​;
  • Q(∞)Q(\infty)Q(∞) exists.

Then for all x>0x>0x>0 and all r∈[2.5,r∗)r\in[2.5,r^*)r∈[2.5,r∗),

P(L(∞)≥x1−ρ)≤2⋅104 E[(SμS)2] (106)r(E[(SμS)2]r−1r2.5r+r1.5rE[(SμS)r])x−r2+1.1 e−.0225 E[(AμA)2]−1x,\mathbb P\Big(L(\infty)\ge\frac x{1-\rho}\Big)\le 2\cdot10^4\,\mathbb E[(S\mu_S)^2]\,(10^6)^r\Big(\mathbb E[(S\mu_S)^2]^{r-1}r^{2.5r}+r^{1.5r}\mathbb E[(S\mu_S)^r]\Big)x^{-\frac r2}+1.1\,e^{-.0225\,\mathbb E[(A\mu_A)^2]^{-1}x},P(L(∞)≥1−ρx​)≤2⋅104E[(SμS​)2](106)r(E[(SμS​)2]r−1r2.5r+r1.5rE[(SμS​)r])x−2r​+1.1e−.0225E[(AμA​)2]−1x, P(Q(∞)≥n)≤2⋅104 E[(SμS)2] (107)r(E[(SμS)2]r−1r2.5r+r1.5rE[(SμS)r])(n(1−ρ)2)−r2+1.1 e−.0028 E[(AμA)2]−1n(1−ρ)2.\mathbb P\big(Q(\infty)\ge n\big)\le 2\cdot10^4\,\mathbb E[(S\mu_S)^2]\,(10^7)^r\Big(\mathbb E[(S\mu_S)^2]^{r-1}r^{2.5r}+r^{1.5r}\mathbb E[(S\mu_S)^r]\Big)\big(n(1-\rho)^2\big)^{-\frac r2}+1.1\,e^{-.0028\,\mathbb E[(A\mu_A)^2]^{-1}n(1-\rho)^2}.P(Q(∞)≥n)≤2⋅104E[(SμS​)2](107)r(E[(SμS​)2]r−1r2.5r+r1.5rE[(SμS​)r])(n(1−ρ)2)−2r​+1.1e−.0028E[(AμA​)2]−1n(1−ρ)2.

The paper states the infimum over rrr. With rrr universally quantified the statement is equivalent, because the exponential term does not depend on rrr.

Milestones

They follow the paper's proof, in attack order:

  • Lemma 1, the Gamarnik–Goldberg comparison P(L(∞)≥x)≤P(sup⁡t≥0(Ae(t)−∑i=1nNe,i(t))≥x)\mathbb P(L(\infty)\ge x)\le\mathbb P(\sup_{t\ge0}(A_e(t)-\sum_{i=1}^nN_{e,i}(t))\ge x)P(L(∞)≥x)≤P(supt≥0​(Ae​(t)−∑i=1n​Ne,i​(t))≥x);
  • Lemma 2, which splits that supremum into an arrival part and a service part;
  • Lemmas 8, 9 and 10, which reduce the arrival part to Kingman's bound with an explicit exponent;
  • Lemma 3, the exponential bound for the arrival part;
  • Lemma 4 and Theorem 10, conditional bounds from central moments of the pooled process ∑iNe,i(t)\sum_iN_{e,i}(t)∑i​Ne,i​(t);
  • Lemmas 5 and 6, those central-moment bounds;
  • the explicit bound for r∈(2.5,r∗)r\in(2.5,r^*)r∈(2.5,r∗) displayed on p. 28;
  • Lemma 14, a transient comparison for a queue started with all servers busy;
  • Lemma 7 and Corollary 5, comparisons with fewer servers that make the bound informative at the level Q(∞)≥nQ(\infty)\ge nQ(∞)≥n.

Significance

The result. The bounds hold for every nnn and every load with ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1, and they depend on the distributions only through a few normalised moments. In the Halfin–Whitt regime, n(1−ρ)2n(1-\rho)^2n(1−ρ)2 stays bounded away from zero, so the delay bound stays informative. As ρ→1\rho\to1ρ→1 with nnn fixed, the queue tail decays at the Kingman scale 1/(1−ρ)1/(1-\rho)1/(1−ρ). These are the first such bounds for general GI/GI/n queues; earlier explicit results needed Poisson arrivals or exponential service. The paper derives from Theorem 2 bounds at a fixed rrr (Corollaries 1–2), a refinement beyond 1/(1−ρ)1/(1-\rho)1/(1−ρ) scaling when n(1−ρ)2n(1-\rho)^2n(1−ρ)2 is large (Corollary 3), and optimised bounds under growth conditions on E[(SμS)r]\mathbb E[(S\mu_S)^r]E[(SμS​)r] (Theorem 3).

Formalization. The theorem is proved in the paper, partly in a supplemental appendix, and none of it is formalized; there are no machine-checked results for multi-server queues with general distributions anywhere. A complete development would add to the platform the first FCFS multi-server queue with general distributions, its steady state, equilibrium renewal processes, and the Gamarnik–Goldberg comparison chain. Each is reusable for later work on many-server queues.

Difficulty

The obvious route is to compare the nnn-server queue with a single-server one, or to apply a heavy-traffic limit. The first loses a factor of nnn; the second gives limits but no bounds at a fixed nnn.

The paper's route needs two hard ingredients:

  • Comparison with renewal processes. The stochastic comparison of Lemmas 1 and 14 is a theorem about the sample-path dynamics of FCFS service, not a calculation.
  • Uniform moment bounds. Explicit control of E∣∑i=1nNe,i(t)−nt∣r\mathbb E|\sum_{i=1}^nN_{e,i}(t)-nt|^rE∣∑i=1n​Ne,i​(t)−nt∣r at the scale (nt)r/2(nt)^{r/2}(nt)r/2, uniformly in nnn and ttt, is required. Classical renewal moment bounds are either asymptotic in ttt or lose the dependence on nnn.

For the probability of delay, Lemma 1 at level 000 gives only the trivial bound 111. A second comparison across server counts (Lemma 7) is needed.

Formalization scope

Laws. AAA and SSS are represented by their laws μA,μS\mu_A,\mu_SμA​,μS​: probability measures on R\mathbb RR carried by [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), integrable, with positive mean. Positivity of the means is implicit in the paper, which needs μX=1/E[X]\mu_X=1/\mathbb E[X]μX​=1/E[X] finite; it is stated explicitly. E[(XμX)r]\mathbb E[(X\mu_X)^r]E[(XμX​)r] is a real integral and is used only where it is finite: r<r∗r<r^*r<r∗ for SSS, and r=2r=2r=2 with E[A2]<∞\mathbb E[A^2]<\inftyE[A2]<∞ for AAA. r∗r^*r∗ is an extended real.

The queue.

  • The queue is the Kiefer–Wolfowitz workload recursion, driven by an initial condition and i.i.d. pairs of inter-arrival and service times.
  • An initial condition gives the first-arrival time and the residual service time at each server. No job waits at time 000.
  • "Q(∞)Q(\infty)Q(∞) exists with law π\piπ" quantifies over every initial law of that kind, independent of the inputs. This class is narrower than the paper's, so the hypothesis is weaker and the stated theorem is stronger. The paper's proof uses only such initial conditions (Lemma 7 through Lemma 14).
  • L(∞)L(\infty)L(∞) is the truncated difference max⁡(0,Q(∞)−n)\max(0,Q(\infty)-n)max(0,Q(∞)−n).

Renewal processes.

  • Counts are natural numbers, computed pathwise from the renewal intervals.
  • Bounding families are arbitrary probability spaces carrying mutually independent intervals with the prescribed laws.
  • Suprema of processes are taken in the extended reals.

Ruled out. None of the following trivializing formalizations is used:

  • a steady-state hypothesis that no queue satisfies, or one restricted to an initial-condition class that drops what Lemma 7 needs;
  • a real-valued supremum or infimum, which collapses to 000 on unbounded families;
  • a Bochner moment of a non-integrable function, which is 000 in Lean.

The infimum over rrr is stated as a universal quantifier.

Needed infrastructure. Equilibrium distributions and renewal counting processes, moment and maximal inequalities for sums of independent renewal processes, Kingman's exponential martingale bound, and the sample-path comparison of FCFS multi-server queues. Contributions on any of these are welcome: the renewal and random-walk results (Lemmas 5, 6, 8–10) are independent of queueing.

Selected references

  • Y. Li and D. A. Goldberg, Simple and explicit bounds for multi-server queues with 1/(1−ρ) scaling, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2025; arXiv:1706.04628v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.04628
  • D. Gamarnik and D. A. Goldberg, Steady-state GI/G/n queue in the Halfin–Whitt regime, Annals of Applied Probability 23(6), 2382–2419, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1214/12-AAP905
  • S. Halfin and W. Whitt, Heavy-traffic limits for queues with many exponential servers, Operations Research 29(3), 1981. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.29.3.567
  • J. F. C. Kingman, On queues in heavy traffic, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 24, 383–392, 1962 (ref. [89] of Li–Goldberg).
  • J. F. C. Kingman, A martingale inequality in the theory of queues, Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 60(2), 359–361, 1964 (ref. [90] of Li–Goldberg; the source of Lemma 9).
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Bandit AlgorithmsHarmonic AnalysisMachine Learning+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Learning and Optimization with Seasonal Patterns 1: Regret Upper Bound for the Two-Stage Period-Estimation and Confidence-Bound PolicyResearch Paper

Motivation

Many demand, traffic and click-through series are seasonal: their mean repeats after a fixed number of periods (a week of days, a year of months), while the length of that cycle is not known in advance. A retailer choosing among KKK promotions, or a platform choosing among KKK recommendations, then faces a multi-armed bandit whose arms have time-varying but periodic mean rewards. Standard stochastic bandit algorithms assume stationary means and fail here, and fully adversarial or arbitrarily drifting models give up the structure that periodicity offers.

N. Chen, C. Wang and L. Wang (arXiv:2005.08088, Operations Research, 2025) propose a two-stage policy for this problem: a spectral first stage that estimates every arm's period from a short exploration phase, and a confidence-bound second stage that learns and exploits the resulting "effective arms". Their main upper bound, Theorem 1, shows that the policy's regret grows like T∑kTk\sqrt{T\sum_k T_k}T∑k​Tk​​ up to logarithmic factors. This mission formalizes that theorem and the chain of lemmas behind it. The matching lower bound (Theorem 3 of the paper) is the subject of a separate mission of this series.

Setting

At each epoch t=1,…,Tt=1,\dots,Tt=1,…,T a decision maker pulls one of KKK arms. Pulling arm kkk at epoch ttt yields the reward Yk,t=μk,t+ϵtY_{k,t}=\mu_{k,t}+\epsilon_tYk,t​=μk,t​+ϵt​. The mean μk,t\mu_{k,t}μk,t​ has a minimum period Tk≥1T_k\ge1Tk​≥1: μk,t+Tk=μk,t\mu_{k,t+T_k}=\mu_{k,t}μk,t+Tk​​=μk,t​ for all t≥1t\ge1t≥1, and no smaller positive shift has this property. The standing assumptions are:

  • Assumption 1: μk,t∈[0,1]\mu_{k,t}\in[0,1]μk,t​∈[0,1].
  • Assumption 2: the noises ϵt\epsilon_tϵt​ are independent and sub-Gaussian with parameter σ\sigmaσ, i.e. E[eλϵt]≤eσ2λ2/2\mathbb E[e^{\lambda\epsilon_t}]\le e^{\sigma^2\lambda^2/2}E[eλϵt​]≤eσ2λ2/2 for all real λ\lambdaλ and P(∣ϵt∣>x)≤2e−x2/(2σ2)\mathbb P(|\epsilon_t|>x)\le2e^{-x^2/(2\sigma^2)}P(∣ϵt​∣>x)≤2e−x2/(2σ2).

The pseudo-regret of an arm sequence π\piπ is RTπ=∑t=1T(max⁡kμk,t−μπt,t)R^\pi_T=\sum_{t=1}^T(\max_k\mu_{k,t}-\mu_{\pi_t,t})RTπ​=∑t=1T​(maxk​μk,t​−μπt​,t​), and the number of effective arms is d=∑k=1KTkd=\sum_{k=1}^KT_kd=∑k=1K​Tk​: arm kkk at phase t mod Tkt \bmod T_ktmodTk​ is one effective arm.

Stage one (Algorithm 1). Each arm is pulled nnn times in a row. From its nnn rewards the policy computes the periodogram ∣y~k(v)∣|\tilde y_k(v)|∣y~​k​(v)∣, the modulus of the discrete Fourier transform y~k(v)=1n∑sYk,se−2πivs\tilde y_k(v)=\frac1n\sum_sY_{k,s}e^{-2\pi ivs}y~​k​(v)=n1​∑s​Yk,s​e−2πivs, on v∈[0,1/2]v\in[0,1/2]v∈[0,1/2]. A data-driven threshold τk\tau_kτk​ is computed from the constants U1,U2U_1,U_2U1​,U2​ (sums of sinc-type maxima), ϵˉv=2σH1−π/24log⁡(n)/n\bar\epsilon_v=\frac{2\sigma H}{1-\pi/24}\sqrt{\log(n)/n}ϵˉv​=1−π/242σH​log(n)/n​ and sup⁡v∣y~k(v)∣\sup_v|\tilde y_k(v)|supv​∣y~​k​(v)∣. The algorithm repeatedly takes the highest peak above τk\tau_kτk​ in [g/n,1/2][g/n,1/2][g/n,1/2], snaps it to the nearest fraction j1/j2j_1/j_2j1​/j2​ with j2<n/(2g)j_2<n/(2g)j2​<n/(2g), and removes a 2g/n2g/n2g/n-neighbourhood. The period estimate T^k\hat T_kT^k​ is the least common multiple of the selected reciprocals.

Stage two (Algorithm 2). At every later epoch an SSS-round screening tournament, S=⌊log⁡2T⌋S=\lfloor\log_2T\rfloorS=⌊log2​T⌋, compares the arms at their current phases modulo T^k\hat T_kT^k​. It uses estimated means mk,t(s)m^{(s)}_{k,t}mk,t(s)​ and widths wk,t(s)w^{(s)}_{k,t}wk,t(s)​ pooled from the stage-one samples and from round-specific index sets Ψ(s)(t)\Psi^{(s)}(t)Ψ(s)(t). The weak oracle runs the same policy with the true periods in place of T^k\hat T_kT^k​.

The parameters are fixed by (7): n=⌊T/K⌋n=\lfloor\sqrt{T/K}\rfloorn=⌊T/K​⌋, g=⌈n⌉g=\lceil\sqrt n\rceilg=⌈n​⌉, H=1+log⁡nH=\sqrt{1+\log n}H=1+logn​. Assumption 3 asks T>4KT>4KT>4K, g≥max⁡{2,n}g\ge\max\{2,\sqrt n\}g≥max{2,n​} and Tk<n/(2g)T_k<n/(2g)Tk​<n/(2g). Assumption 4 asks the smallest present Fourier coefficient bkb_kbk​ of each arm to dominate a combination of ϵˉv\bar\epsilon_vϵˉv​ and the largest coefficient BkB_kBk​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

Under Assumptions 1–4 and (7), the two-stage policy satisfies

E[RTπ]≤CT d log⁡2(T) log⁡(T/d),\mathbb E\big[R^\pi_T\big]\le C\sqrt{T\,d\,\log^2(T)\,\log(T/d)} ,E[RTπ​]≤CTdlog2(T)log(T/d)​,

with CCC depending only on σ\sigmaσ and KKK, and with Algorithm 2 run at δ=8/T\delta=8/Tδ=8/T.

Stage one: correct period identification

  • Lemma 1: uniform noise bound for the periodogram, 48nexp⁡(−(nδ2/4σ2)(1−π/24)2)48n\exp(-(n\delta^2/4\sigma^2)(1-\pi/24)^2)48nexp(−(nδ2/4σ2)(1−π/24)2).
  • Lemmas 2–3: leakage bounds πBkU1\pi B_kU_1πBk​U1​, πBkU2\pi B_kU_2πBk​U2​, and Bk≤(sup⁡∣ϵ~k∣+sup⁡∣y~k∣)/(1−πU2)B_k\le(\sup|\tilde\epsilon_k|+\sup|\tilde y_k|)/(1-\pi U_2)Bk​≤(sup∣ϵ~k​∣+sup∣y~​k​∣)/(1−πU2​).
  • Lemmas 4–5: the threshold separates the neighbourhoods of the present frequencies from the rest, with probability 1−48/nH2−11-48/n^{H^2-1}1−48/nH2−1.
  • Lemmas 6–7: the sharper noise bound near possible present frequencies, and the location of the peaks within 1/n1/n1/n of them.
  • Theorem 2: P(Λ)≥1−48K/nH2−1−200K/n0.867H2−1−200K/n0.6934H2−1\mathbb P(\Lambda)\ge1-48K/n^{H^2-1}-200K/n^{0.867H^2-1}-200K/n^{0.6934H^2-1}P(Λ)≥1−48K/nH2−1−200K/n0.867H2−1−200K/n0.6934H2−1.

Stage two: the oracle's regret

  • Lemma 15: an anytime sub-Gaussian deviation bound.
  • Lemma 9: the confidence event E\mathcal EE has probability at least 1−δS1-\delta S1−δS.
  • Lemma 10: on E\mathcal EE the optimal arm survives screening, and each epoch's gap is at most 111, 8σ/2s8\sigma/2^s8σ/2s or 2σ/T2\sigma/\sqrt T2σ/T​.
  • Lemma 16: the summed widths of a round are at most 4σ∣Ψ(s)(T)∣ dlog⁡(8T/δ)log⁡(T/d)4\sigma\sqrt{|\Psi^{(s)}(T)|\,d\log(8T/\delta)\log(T/d)}4σ∣Ψ(s)(T)∣dlog(8T/δ)log(T/d)​.
  • Lemma 11: the oracle's expected regret is at most CTdlog⁡2(T)log⁡(T/d)C\sqrt{Td\log^2(T)\log(T/d)}CTdlog2(T)log(T/d)​ with CCC depending only on σ\sigmaσ.

Significance

The theorem shows that unknown seasonality costs only the factor d=∑kTk\sqrt{d}=\sqrt{\sum_kT_k}d​=∑k​Tk​​ that would be paid if every phase of every arm were a separate stationary arm. Up to logarithmic factors this matches the TK\sqrt{TK}TK​ rate of the classical stationary bandit with ddd arms in place of KKK. Together with the paper's lower bound Ω(Tmax⁡kTk)\Omega(\sqrt{T\max_kT_k})Ω(Tmaxk​Tk​​) it locates the minimax regret of periodic bandits within a factor K\sqrt KK​. Stage one is a non-asymptotic, finite-sample period-identification guarantee for a thresholded periodogram, which is of independent use in spectral estimation.

The paper proves these results; none of them is machine-checked. A complete development yields a verified finite-sample periodogram theory (noise bounds for random trigonometric polynomials, Dirichlet-kernel leakage estimates), a verified anytime sub-Gaussian inequality, and a verified analysis of a nested elimination algorithm with data reuse. The formalization also pins down several points the printed text leaves open: the constant 0.2330.2330.233 of Lemma 6 and the exponent 0.6940.6940.694 of Lemma 7 and Theorem 2 are slightly stronger than what the proofs give, and the printed claim that Theorem 1's constant is independent of KKK is not established by the printed argument.

Difficulty

Two steps resist the obvious approach. In stage one, the periodogram has to be controlled at uncountably many frequencies at once. A union bound over vvv is unavailable, and the leakage of each present frequency spreads over the whole spectrum, so both the noise and the signal must be bounded uniformly in vvv with explicit constants. In stage two, the samples used to estimate an effective arm are selected with the estimated periods, which were computed from the same stage-one data, so the usual independence behind confidence bounds fails. Lemmas 9–11 are therefore stated for the weak oracle, whose sample selection does not depend on the data; on the event Λ\LambdaΛ the definitions make the oracle's run and the policy's run the same function of the noise path.

Formalization scope

Epochs are natural numbers t≥1t\ge1t≥1; arms are Fin K (the paper's arm kkk is index k−1k-1k−1), and K≥1K\ge1K≥1. The noise is a sequence ϵ:N→Ω→R\epsilon:\mathbb N\to\Omega\to\mathbb Rϵ:N→Ω→R on a probability space, independent, with Mathlib's HasSubgaussianMGF at variance proxy σ2\sigma^2σ2, plus the printed tail clause. Both algorithms are defined in full, as deterministic functions of the noise path, with canonical tie-breaking: smallest maximizer, smallest closest candidate, smallest arm index. Algorithm 1's loop runs at most nnn passes, and LCM(v^i−1)\mathrm{LCM}(\hat v_i^{-1})LCM(v^i−1​) is the least common multiple of the reduced denominators of the selected frequencies. Algorithm 2 takes its period vector as an argument; the two-stage policy and the oracle are its two instances. Expected regret is an outer expectation: an integrable majorant of the regret whose integral obeys the bound. Probability bounds bound the outer measure of the bad event. Every DFT uses the absolute stage-one epochs, as in Step 8 of Algorithm 1.

Disclosed deviations: Theorem 1's constant depends on σ\sigmaσ and KKK (the printed proof does not give uniformity in KKK), and δ=8/T\delta=8/Tδ=8/T is fixed as in the proof of Lemma 11. Lemma 6 uses 0.23280.23280.2328 for the printed 0.2330.2330.233; Lemma 7 and Theorem 2 use 0.69340.69340.6934 for the printed 0.6940.6940.694. Lemma 7 covers the nonzero present frequencies. Lemma 11 states the standing Assumption 3 and the parameters (7) as hypotheses, as its proof uses them.

The algorithm is the object of the theorem. Replacing Algorithm 1 by "any estimator that is correct with high probability", or Algorithm 2 by "any policy with the oracle's regret", would make the goal a different and much weaker statement. So would placing the constant after the horizon or the instance, since the regret is at most TTT, or using a bare Lebesgue integral of a possibly non-measurable regret.

A complete development needs discrete Fourier analysis of finite sequences, Bernstein's inequality for complex polynomials on the unit disc (Lemma 14 of the paper, from Nagy and Totik), sinc-function estimates, anytime concentration for sub-Gaussian sums, and a bookkeeping layer for the nested index sets of Algorithm 2. The concentration and polynomial-inequality parts are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of individual lemmas, helper lemmas such as the closed form (6) of the frequency components, and alternative arguments are welcome.

Selected references

  • N. Chen, C. Wang, L. Wang, Learning and Optimization with Seasonal Patterns, arXiv:2005.08088v4, 2021; Operations Research, 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.08088
  • P. Auer, Using Confidence Bounds for Exploitation-Exploration Trade-offs, Journal of Machine Learning Research 3, 397–422, 2002. https://www.jmlr.org/papers/v3/auer02a.html
  • L. Li, Y. Lu, D. Zhou, Provably Optimal Algorithms for Generalized Linear Contextual Bandits, ICML 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.00048
  • B. Nagy, V. Totik, Bernstein's Inequality for Algebraic Polynomials on Circular Arcs, Constructive Approximation 37, 223–232, 2013.
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Operations ResearchOptimizationPartial Differential Equations+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimality Conditions in Control Problems with Random State Constraints in Probabilistic or Almost Sure Form II: Explicit Optimality Conditions for Probabilistic Elliptic PDE State ConstraintsResearch Paper

Motivation

Optimal control of partial differential equations under uncertainty arises whenever a physical system is steered by a control while its sources, coefficients or loads are only known in distribution. A typical requirement is a state constraint: the state (a temperature, a concentration, a displacement) must stay below a threshold everywhere in the domain. When the source term is random, demanding this for every realization is often impossible or too conservative, and the natural relaxation is a probabilistic (chance) constraint: the state must stay below the threshold uniformly on the domain with probability at least ppp.

Probabilistic constraints are classical in operations research (Prékopa, Stochastic Programming, 1995), but in a PDE setting the constraint is an infinite family of random inequalities, one per point of the domain, and the probability function is not differentiable in general. C. Geiersbach and R. Henrion (arXiv:2306.03965v2, Math. Oper. Res. 2025) derive optimality conditions for such problems in terms of the Clarke subdifferential, building on the spherical-radial decomposition of Gaussian vectors developed by Hantoute, Henrion and Pérez-Aros (Math. Program. 2019) and van Ackooij and Henrion. This mission formalizes the PDE half of §2 of that paper: explicit formulas for the subdifferential of the probability function and the resulting optimality conditions.

Setting

Let D⊆RdD\subseteq\mathbb R^dD⊆Rd, d∈{1,2,3}d\in\{1,2,3\}d∈{1,2,3}, be a nonempty, open, bounded set of class S: there are γ∈(0,1)\gamma\in(0,1)γ∈(0,1) and r0>0r_0>0r0​>0 with meas⁡(Br(x)∖D)≥γmeas⁡(Br(x))\operatorname{meas}(B_r(x)\setminus D)\ge\gamma\operatorname{meas}(B_r(x))meas(Br​(x)∖D)≥γmeas(Br​(x)) for all x∈∂Dx\in\partial Dx∈∂D and 0<r<r00<r<r_00<r<r0​. For F∈L2(D)F\in L^2(D)F∈L2(D) the Dirichlet problem −Δy=F-\Delta y=F−Δy=F in DDD, y=0y=0y=0 on ∂D\partial D∂D has a unique weak solution in H01(D)∩C(Dˉ)H^1_0(D)\cap C(\bar D)H01​(D)∩C(Dˉ); the solution operator A−1:L2(D)→C(Dˉ)A^{-1}:L^2(D)\to C(\bar D)A−1:L2(D)→C(Dˉ) is linear and continuous.

Fix f0,φ1,…,φm∈L2(D)f_0,\varphi_1,\dots,\varphi_m\in L^2(D)f0​,φ1​,…,φm​∈L2(D) and a threshold α∈R\alpha\in\mathbb Rα∈R. The control-to-state operator is

S(u,z)=A−1(u+f0+∑i=1mziφi)=P(u,z)+y0,P(u,z)=A−1u+∑iziA−1φi, y0=A−1f0.S(u,z)=A^{-1}\Big(u+f_0+\sum_{i=1}^m z_i\varphi_i\Big)=P(u,z)+y_0,\qquad P(u,z)=A^{-1}u+\sum_i z_iA^{-1}\varphi_i,\ y_0=A^{-1}f_0.S(u,z)=A−1(u+f0​+i=1∑m​zi​φi​)=P(u,z)+y0​,P(u,z)=A−1u+i∑​zi​A−1φi​, y0​=A−1f0​.

The random vector ξ\xiξ on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mathbb P)(Ω,F,P) is Gaussian N(0,Σ)\mathcal N(0,\Sigma)N(0,Σ) with Σ\SigmaΣ positive definite, and y(⋅,ω)=S(u,ξ(ω))y(\cdot,\omega)=S(u,\xi(\omega))y(⋅,ω)=S(u,ξ(ω)) is the random state. With g(u,z)=max⁡x∈Dˉ[S(u,z)](x)−αg(u,z)=\max_{x\in\bar D}[S(u,z)](x)-\alphag(u,z)=maxx∈Dˉ​[S(u,z)](x)−α and the probability function φ(u)=P(ω∣g(u,ξ(ω))≤0)\varphi(u)=\mathbb P(\omega\mid g(u,\xi(\omega))\le0)φ(u)=P(ω∣g(u,ξ(ω))≤0), the problem is

min⁡u∈L2(D)F(u)s.t.φ(u)=P(y(x,ω)≤α  ∀x∈D)≥p,(24)\min_{u\in L^2(D)}F(u)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad \varphi(u)=\mathbb P\big(y(x,\omega)\le\alpha\ \ \forall x\in D\big)\ge p,\tag{24}u∈L2(D)min​F(u)s.t.φ(u)=P(y(x,ω)≤α  ∀x∈D)≥p,(24)

with FFF convex and Fréchet differentiable and p∈(0,1]p\in(0,1]p∈(0,1].

The analysis uses the spherical-radial decomposition. Let μζ\mu_\zetaμζ​ be the uniform distribution on the unit sphere Sm−1\mathbb S^{m-1}Sm−1, μη\mu_\etaμη​ the chi distribution with mmm degrees of freedom and density χ(t)=Ktm−1e−t2/2\chi(t)=Kt^{m-1}e^{-t^2/2}χ(t)=Ktm−1e−t2/2, Σ1/2\Sigma^{1/2}Σ1/2 the square root of Σ\SigmaΣ. The radial probability function is e(u,v)=μη{r≥0∣g(u,rΣ1/2v)≤0}e(u,v)=\mu_\eta\{r\ge0\mid g(u,r\Sigma^{1/2}v)\le0\}e(u,v)=μη​{r≥0∣g(u,rΣ1/2v)≤0} and the radius function ρ(u,v)∈[0,∞]\rho(u,v)\in[0,\infty]ρ(u,v)∈[0,∞] is the supremum of that set. For x∈Dˉx\in\bar Dx∈Dˉ, ux∈L2(D)u_x\in L^2(D)ux​∈L2(D) is defined by (ux,h)L2(D)=(A−1h)(x)(u_x,h)_{L^2(D)}=(A^{-1}h)(x)(ux​,h)L2(D)​=(A−1h)(x), and

M∗(uˉ,v)={x∈Dˉ∣[P(0,Σ1/2v)](x)>0, yˉ(x)+ρ(uˉ,v)[P(0,Σ1/2v)](x)=α},yˉ=S(uˉ,0).M^*(\bar u,v)=\{x\in\bar D\mid[P(0,\Sigma^{1/2}v)](x)>0,\ \bar y(x)+\rho(\bar u,v)[P(0,\Sigma^{1/2}v)](x)=\alpha\},\qquad \bar y=S(\bar u,0).M∗(uˉ,v)={x∈Dˉ∣[P(0,Σ1/2v)](x)>0, yˉ​(x)+ρ(uˉ,v)[P(0,Σ1/2v)](x)=α},yˉ​=S(uˉ,0).

∂C\partial^C∂C is the Clarke subdifferential, with L2(D)∗L^2(D)^*L2(D)∗ identified with L2(D)L^2(D)L2(D), and integrals of set-valued maps are Aumann integrals.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.16

Assume a control u^\hat uu^ with φ(u^)>p\varphi(\hat u)>pφ(u^)>p (41), and let u∗u^*u∗ be feasible with expected state y~=S(u∗,0)\tilde y=S(u^*,0)y~​=S(u∗,0) satisfying y~(x)<α\tilde y(x)<\alphay~​(x)<α on Dˉ\bar DDˉ (42). If u∗u^*u∗ solves (24), there is λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0 with

DF(u∗)∈−λ∫{v∣ρ(u∗,v)<∞}χ(ρ(u∗,v))⋅clco⁡{ux[P(0,Σ1/2v)](x) ∣ x∈M∗(u∗,v)} dμζ(v),DF(u^*)\in-\lambda\int_{\{v\mid\rho(u^*,v)<\infty\}}\chi(\rho(u^*,v))\cdot\operatorname{clco}\Big\{\frac{u_x}{[P(0,\Sigma^{1/2}v)](x)}\ \Big|\ x\in M^*(u^*,v)\Big\}\,d\mu_\zeta(v),DF(u∗)∈−λ∫{v∣ρ(u∗,v)<∞}​χ(ρ(u∗,v))⋅clco{[P(0,Σ1/2v)](x)ux​​ ​ x∈M∗(u∗,v)}dμζ​(v), λ(P(y∗(x,ω)≤α ∀x∈D)−p)=0,\lambda\big(\mathbb P(y^*(x,\omega)\le\alpha\ \forall x\in D)-p\big)=0,λ(P(y∗(x,ω)≤α ∀x∈D)−p)=0,

and these conditions are sufficient when M∗(u∗,v)M^*(u^*,v)M∗(u∗,v) is a singleton for μζ\mu_\zetaμζ​-a.e. vvv with ρ(u∗,v)<∞\rho(u^*,v)<\inftyρ(u∗,v)<∞, or the set {z∣g(u∗,z)≤0}\{z\mid g(u^*,z)\le0\}{z∣g(u∗,z)≤0} is bounded. The goal has no hard-coded constants; it asserts the form of the optimality system.

Milestones

In attack order: well-posedness of the state equation with the bound ∥y^∥C(Dˉ)≤C(∥z∥2+∥u+f0∥L2(D))\|\hat y\|_{C(\bar D)}\le C(\|z\|_2+\|u+f_0\|_{L^2(D)})∥y^​∥C(Dˉ)​≤C(∥z∥2​+∥u+f0​∥L2(D)​) (Lemma 1.2); measurability of the random state (Lemma 1.4); convexity and global Lipschitz continuity of ggg (Lemma 2.9); moderate growth (Lemma 2.10); the Lipschitz and subdifferential conclusions of the general theory under (26) (Corollary 2.11); the optimality conditions (21), (22) for (24) (Corollary 2.12); ∂uCe(uˉ,v)={0}\partial^C_ue(\bar u,v)=\{0\}∂uC​e(uˉ,v)={0} when ρ(uˉ,v)=∞\rho(\bar u,v)=\inftyρ(uˉ,v)=∞ (Lemma 2.13); the explicit formula ∂uCe(uˉ,v)=−χ(ρ(uˉ,v))⋅clco⁡{ux/[P(0,Σ1/2v)](x)∣x∈M∗(uˉ,v)}\partial^C_ue(\bar u,v)=-\chi(\rho(\bar u,v))\cdot\operatorname{clco}\{u_x/[P(0,\Sigma^{1/2}v)](x)\mid x\in M^*(\bar u,v)\}∂uC​e(uˉ,v)=−χ(ρ(uˉ,v))⋅clco{ux​/[P(0,Σ1/2v)](x)∣x∈M∗(uˉ,v)} when ρ(uˉ,v)<∞\rho(\bar u,v)<\inftyρ(uˉ,v)<∞ (Lemma 2.14); and the upper estimate (40) of ∂Cφ(uˉ)\partial^C\varphi(\bar u)∂Cφ(uˉ) with its equality cases (Theorem 2.15).

Significance

The result turns an abstract statement — DF(u∗)DF(u^*)DF(u∗) lies in a multiple of the Clarke subdifferential of a probability function that has no closed form — into a condition written in the problem data: Green-type functions uxu_xux​, the expected state, and the radius function along each direction of the sphere. This is what makes the conditions usable for checking candidate controls and for designing algorithms, and Example 2.18 of the paper computes a solution this way. The sufficiency half identifies when the nonconvex chance-constrained problem behaves like a convex one.

The paper's proofs are on paper only; to our knowledge none of these results, nor the spherical-radial decomposition, Clarke calculus in Hilbert spaces, or Aumann integrals in L2L^2L2, has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing Theorem 2.16 requires connecting elliptic regularity, Gaussian measure theory and nonsmooth analysis, and the milestones are reusable on their own: Lemma 1.2 is a regularity statement for the Poisson equation, and Lemmas 2.13 and 2.14 are max-function subdifferential formulas in an infinite-dimensional space.

Difficulty

The obvious route — differentiate φ\varphiφ and use a Lagrange multiplier — fails because φ\varphiφ is generally not differentiable even for smooth data (Example 2.17 of the paper), and because ggg is only Lipschitz, being a maximum over Dˉ\bar DDˉ. The general subdifferential estimate (Theorem 2.2, from Hantoute–Henrion–Pérez-Aros) needs a growth condition and only gives an inclusion, since the radial probability function is not Clarke regular; the radius function ρ(⋅,v)\rho(\cdot,v)ρ(⋅,v) is an infimum over the open set where P(0,Σ1/2v)>0P(0,\Sigma^{1/2}v)>0P(0,Σ1/2v)>0, which is neither compact nor independent of uuu, so standard max-function formulas do not apply directly. Directions with ρ=∞\rho=\inftyρ=∞ require a separate limiting argument through the Mordukhovich subdifferential (Lemma 2.13). The regularity input, continuity of solutions on Dˉ\bar DDˉ for class-S domains (Kinderlehrer–Stampacchia 1980), is not in Mathlib.

Formalization scope

All declarations are in the namespace ChanceStateCtrl.PDE. Rd\mathbb R^dRd and Rm\mathbb R^mRm are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) and EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m), indices are Fin m, L2(D)L^2(D)L2(D) is Lp ℝ 2 (volume.restrict D). Weak derivatives are the published HunterPDE.Shared.HasWeakDeriv; a weak solution is a function continuous on Dˉ\bar DDˉ, zero on ∂D\partial D∂D, in L2(D)L^2(D)L2(D) with weak first derivatives in L2(D)L^2(D)L2(D), satisfying the weak form against Cc∞(D)C_c^\infty(D)Cc∞​(D).

Standing hypotheses on every theorem: DDD open, bounded and nonempty, d∈{1,2,3}d\in\{1,2,3\}d∈{1,2,3}, class S, and CompactSpace (closure D) (a consequence of boundedness). Nonemptiness of DDD is the one added hypothesis: Lean's supremum over an empty domain is 000, not −∞-\infty−∞, and Lemma 2.9's identification of events fails for D=∅D=\emptysetD=∅. A−1A^{-1}A−1 is a continuous linear map to C(Dˉ)C(\bar D)C(Dˉ) together with the hypothesis that it returns the weak solution; it is never an arbitrary operator. m≥1m\ge1m≥1, as the uniform distribution on Sm−1\mathbb S^{m-1}Sm−1 requires. Σ1/2\Sigma^{1/2}Σ1/2 is the positive semidefinite root; ∥Σ1/2∥\|\Sigma^{1/2}\|∥Σ1/2∥ is its operator norm. The Clarke directional derivative is lim sup⁡u′→u,t↓0(f(u′+th)−f(u′))/t\limsup_{u'\to u,t\downarrow0}(f(u'+th)-f(u'))/tlimsupu′→u,t↓0​(f(u′+th)−f(u′))/t (the page's denominator hhh is a misprint). ρ\rhoρ takes values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. clco is the norm closure of the convex hull. The integral in (40)/(43) is over the restriction of μζ\mu_\zetaμζ​ to {ρ<∞}\{\rho<\infty\}{ρ<∞}, not a renormalization. A solution is a global minimizer over {u∣φ(u)≥p}\{u\mid\varphi(u)\ge p\}{u∣φ(u)≥p}; the page's "solution to (9)" refers to this instance of the abstract problem (9).

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: every Clarke subdifferential is taken at a point where the function is locally Lipschitz (proved in Corollary 2.11 and Theorem 2.15), the state operator is tied to the PDE, the multiplier carries its sign and complementarity, Aumann selections must be scalarly integrable, and optimality is global.

Needed infrastructure: elliptic regularity in C(Dˉ)C(\bar D)C(Dˉ) for class-S domains; the spherical-radial decomposition of N(0,Σ)\mathcal N(0,\Sigma)N(0,Σ); Clarke calculus (chain rule, max functions) on Hilbert spaces; Clarke's theorem on subdifferentials of integral functionals. Contributions of any of these as stand-alone theorems are welcome.

Selected references

  • C. Geiersbach, R. Henrion, Optimality conditions in control problems with random state constraints in probabilistic or almost-sure form, arXiv:2306.03965v2, 2024; Math. Oper. Res., 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.03965
  • A. Hantoute, R. Henrion, P. Pérez-Aros, Subdifferential characterization of probability functions under Gaussian distribution, Math. Program. 174 (2019), 167–194. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-018-1237-9
  • F. H. Clarke, Optimization and Nonsmooth Analysis, Wiley, 1983; SIAM reprint 1990. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611971309
  • D. Kinderlehrer, G. Stampacchia, An Introduction to Variational Inequalities and Their Applications, Academic Press, 1980; SIAM reprint 2000. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898719451
  • A. Prékopa, Stochastic Programming, Kluwer, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-3087-7
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism Design·Captain: mikedeng1

Round-Robin Beyond Additive Agents: Existence and Fairness of Approximate Equilibria 2: For Submodular Valuations the Bluff Profile Is a Tight 1/2-Approximate Pure Nash Equilibrium of Round-RobinResearch Paper

Motivation

Dividing indivisible goods among agents without money is a basic problem of fair division. The most widely used procedure is Round-Robin: the agents take turns, in a fixed order, picking their favourite remaining good. For agents with additive valuations, Round-Robin run on the agents' true preferences produces an allocation that is envy-free up to one good (EF1, Lipton et al. 2004). The agents, however, report their preferences, and a strategic agent may misreport. This raises the question of which allocations arise at the mechanism's equilibria, and whether equilibria exist at all.

For additive valuations, the existence of an exact pure Nash equilibrium was established in pieces over three papers (Bouveret–Lemaître 2016, Aziz–Goldberg–Walsh 2017, Amanatidis et al. 2021), through the bluff profile, in which every agent reports the order in which the truthful run hands out the goods. Amanatidis, Birmpas, Lazos, Leonardi and Reiffenhäuser (arXiv:2301.13652, Mathematics of Operations Research 2025) carry this programme beyond additive agents. For cancelable valuations the bluff profile is still an exact equilibrium (Theorem 3.2). For submodular valuations exact equilibria may fail to exist (Proposition 3.4), and the right generalization of the bluff profile is not obvious. This mission formalizes their answer for submodular agents: a greedy bluff profile that is always a 12\tfrac1221​-approximate equilibrium, with 12\tfrac1221​ best possible.

Setting

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 agents N=[n]N=[n]N=[n] and a finite set MMM of mmm goods. Agent iii has a valuation vi:2M→Rv_i:2^M\to\mathbb Rvi​:2M→R that is normalized, vi(∅)=0v_i(\emptyset)=0vi​(∅)=0, and non-decreasing. The marginal value of ggg with respect to SSS is vi(g∣S)=vi(S∪{g})−vi(S)v_i(g\mid S)=v_i(S\cup\{g\})-v_i(S)vi​(g∣S)=vi​(S∪{g})−vi​(S). The valuation is submodular if vi(g∣S)≥vi(g∣T)v_i(g\mid S)\ge v_i(g\mid T)vi​(g∣S)≥vi​(g∣T) whenever S⊆TS\subseteq TS⊆T and g∉Tg\notin Tg∈/T.

Each agent reports a ranking ≻i\succ_i≻i​, a total order on MMM. Mechanism 1 (Round-Robin) runs k=m/nk=m/nk=m/n rounds. In each round agents 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n act in turn, and the acting agent receives the first good of ≻i\succ_i≻i​ that is still available. vi(M(≻))v_i(\mathcal M(\succ))vi​(M(≻)) denotes agent iii's true value for the bundle she receives under the reported profile ≻\succ≻. A profile of rankings is an α\alphaα-approximate pure Nash equilibrium (PNE) if no agent can multiply her value by more than 1/α1/\alpha1/α through reporting another ranking:

α⋅vi(M(≻i′,≻−i))≤vi(M(≻))for all i and all rankings ≻i′.\alpha\cdot v_i\big(\mathcal M(\succ_i',\succ_{-i})\big)\le v_i\big(\mathcal M(\succ)\big)\quad\text{for all } i \text{ and all rankings }\succ_i'.α⋅vi​(M(≻i′​,≻−i​))≤vi​(M(≻))for all i and all rankings ≻i′​.

The submodular bluff profile comes from Algorithm 2 (p. 10), a hypothetical truthfully greedy run. Agents act in round-robin order, and the active agent iii takes a good of largest marginal value vi(g∣Xi)v_i(g\mid X_i)vi​(g∣Xi​) with respect to her current goods XiX_iXi​. Listing the goods in the order this run hands them out gives h1,…,hmh_1,\dots,h_mh1​,…,hm​, and the bluff profile ≻b\boldsymbol\succ^{\mathrm b}≻b is the profile in which every agent reports h1≻b⋯≻bhmh_1\succ^{\mathrm b}\cdots\succ^{\mathrm b}h_mh1​≻b⋯≻bhm​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.7 (p. 12)

When all valuations are submodular, the bluff profile is a 12\tfrac1221​-approximate PNE:

12 vi(M(≻i,≻−ib))≤vi(M(≻b))for every agent i and every ranking ≻i.\tfrac12\, v_i\big(\mathcal M(\succ_i,\boldsymbol\succ^{\mathrm b}_{-i})\big)\le v_i\big(\mathcal M(\boldsymbol\succ^{\mathrm b})\big)\qquad\text{for every agent } i \text{ and every ranking }\succ_i .21​vi​(M(≻i​,≻−ib​))≤vi​(M(≻b))for every agent i and every ranking ≻i​.

Moreover, for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 there is an instance in which the bluff profile is not a (12+ε)(\tfrac12+\varepsilon)(21​+ε)-approximate PNE. Both parts form the goal; the bound without the tightness is a weaker statement.

Milestones

  1. Claim 3.6 (p. 12). If agent iii's deviation bundle beats her bluff bundle good-wise at some round ℓ\ellℓ, then both runs have allocated the same goods before her ℓ\ellℓ-th pick, and these include y1,…,yℓy_1,\dots,y_\elly1​,…,yℓ​.
  2. Lemma 3.5 (p. 11). Good-wise domination: vi(xj∣X−j−1)≥vi(yj∣X−j−1)v_i(x_j\mid X^{j-1}_-)\ge v_i(y_j\mid X^{j-1}_-)vi​(xj​∣X−j−1​)≥vi​(yj​∣X−j−1​) for every round jjj. Here X={x1,…,xk}X=\{x_1,\dots,x_k\}X={x1​,…,xk​} is the bluff bundle in allocation order and Y={y1,…,yk}Y=\{y_1,\dots,y_k\}Y={y1​,…,yk​} is the deviation bundle, ordered by Algorithm 3.
  3. Per-round inequality (pp. 12–13): vi(X−j)−vi(X−j−1)≥vi(X−j−1∪Y+j)−vi(X−j∪Y+j+1)v_i(X^j_-)-v_i(X^{j-1}_-)\ge v_i(X^{j-1}_-\cup Y^j_+)-v_i(X^j_-\cup Y^{j+1}_+)vi​(X−j​)−vi​(X−j−1​)≥vi​(X−j−1​∪Y+j​)−vi​(X−j​∪Y+j+1​).
  4. Telescoped bound (p. 13): vi(X)≥vi(Y)−vi(X)v_i(X)\ge v_i(Y)-v_i(X)vi​(X)≥vi​(Y)−vi​(X).
  5. Tight instance, bluff run (p. 13). On the two-agent instance with an additive and an OXS agent, the bluff order is g1≻⋯≻g5g_1\succ\cdots\succ g_5g1​≻⋯≻g5​, and the bluff run gives v1(A1)=4−ε1−ε3v_1(A_1)=4-\varepsilon_1-\varepsilon_3v1​(A1​)=4−ε1​−ε3​ and v2(A2)=1v_2(A_2)=1v2​(A2​)=1.
  6. Tight instance, deviation (pp. 13–14). Agent 2 reaches 2−ε1−ε22-\varepsilon_1-\varepsilon_22−ε1​−ε2​ by reporting g3≻g4≻g1≻g2≻g5g_3\succ g_4\succ g_1\succ g_2\succ g_5g3​≻g4​≻g1​≻g2​≻g5​.

Companion statements: Theorem 3.8 (p. 14: the bluff allocation is 12\tfrac1221​-EF1, tight) and Proposition 3.4 (p. 10: an instance with no (34+ε)(\tfrac34+\varepsilon)(43​+ε)-approximate PNE).

Significance

The theorem settles existence for a class where exact existence fails. Proposition 3.4 shows that submodular agents can make every profile unstable, so an approximate equilibrium is the most one can ask for, and Theorem 3.7 exhibits one with the explicit factor 12\tfrac1221​ by a polynomial-time construction. Theorem 3.8 turns the equilibrium bound into a fairness bound, 12\tfrac1221​-EF1 for the bluff allocation. The paper's §4 then shows that every approximate equilibrium of Round-Robin is approximately EF1 for submodular agents, so the existence result here is what makes those fairness guarantees non-vacuous.

The result is proved in the paper; none of it, nor Round-Robin as a mechanism, has a machine-checked proof that we know of. Formalizing it adds a reusable layer for discrete fair division: valuation classes, Round-Robin with step-level bookkeeping, approximate PNE and approximate EF1. On top of that layer come a rigorous proof of the coupling argument and a checked tight instance. The other three missions of this series reuse the same model.

Difficulty

The obvious approach compares agent iii's bundle under the bluff profile with her bundle after a deviation, one good at a time. In the cancelable case this works by a swapping argument. For submodular valuations the value of a good depends on what the agent already holds, so a good-wise comparison is only meaningful relative to a carefully chosen ordering of the deviation bundle. That ordering is Algorithm 3, which renames the goods backwards by minimum marginal value against prefixes of the bluff bundle.

Even with that ordering, the good-wise inequality of Lemma 3.5 does not by itself bound vi(Y)v_i(Y)vi​(Y) by vi(X)v_i(X)vi​(X); the analogue of the cancelable lemma that would do so is missing. The bound comes from an interleaving of prefixes of XXX with suffixes of YYY, and that is where the factor 222 is lost. The proof of Lemma 3.5 must also follow how a single deviation shifts which goods every other agent receives, step by step, in two coupled runs of the mechanism. This counting is the bulk of the work in Lean.

Formalization scope

Agents are Fin n with [NeZero n]; goods are a Fintype with decidable equality. Valuations are real-valued and carry normalization and monotonicity. Submodularity is the paper's marginal form, not the lattice form. Rankings are lists that contain every good exactly once, and deviations in the PNE definition range over rankings only. Round-Robin is computed step by step: step ttt (0-based) belongs to agent t mod nt \bmod ntmodn.

Committed conventions:

  • m=knm=knm=kn is a hypothesis of every statement. The paper assumes it "for simplicity" and calls it without loss of generality by appending dummy goods. That reduction is not formalized. The tight instance accordingly has a sixth, zero-value good.
  • Greedy orders are relational. IsGreedyOrder v h admits every tie-breaking of Algorithm 2, and the theorems quantify over all of them, so they include the paper's lexicographic bluff profile. The tightness parts hold for every greedy order of the instance, and the instance must admit one.
  • Algorithm 3 is relational as well: an injective listing of the deviation bundle whose jjj-th entry minimizes the marginal value against {x1,…,xj−1}\{x_1,\dots,x_{j-1}\}{x1​,…,xj−1​} among y1,…,yjy_1,\dots,y_jy1​,…,yj​.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out by four requirements. Deviations range over rankings, not arbitrary lists. The approximation factors are the paper's 12\tfrac1221​ and 12+ε\tfrac12+\varepsilon21​+ε with ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0. The bluff profile is Algorithm 2's output, not an arbitrary profile. The goal contains the tightness part.

Reusable beyond this mission: the Round-Robin model, valuation classes, approximate PNE and EF1. Welcome contributions include API lemmas about allocBefore and roundRobin (bundle sizes, the bluff run allocating hhh in order, the effect of a single deviation) and the submodularity of OXS valuations.

Selected references

  • G. Amanatidis, G. Birmpas, P. Lazos, S. Leonardi, R. Reiffenhäuser, Round-Robin Beyond Additive Agents: Existence and Fairness of Approximate Equilibria, arXiv:2301.13652v1, 2023; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.13652
  • G. Amanatidis, G. Birmpas, F. Fusco, P. Lazos, S. Leonardi, R. Reiffenhäuser, Allocating Indivisible Goods to Strategic Agents: Pure Nash Equilibria and Fairness, WINE 2021, LNCS 13112, 149–166. https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.08644
  • H. Aziz, P. Goldberg, T. Walsh, Equilibria in Sequential Allocation, ADT 2017, LNCS 10576, 270–283.
  • S. Bouveret, M. Lemaître, Characterizing Conflicts in Fair Division of Indivisible Goods Using a Scale of Criteria, Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems 30(2), 259–290, 2016.
  • R. J. Lipton, E. Markakis, E. Mossel, A. Saberi, On Approximately Fair Allocations of Indivisible Goods, EC 2004, 125–131. https://doi.org/10.1145/988772.988792
  • B. Lehmann, D. Lehmann, N. Nisan, Combinatorial Auctions with Decreasing Marginal Utilities, Games and Economic Behavior 55(2), 270–296, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2005.02.006
12 thms2 active usersReviewed
EconomicsOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

The Bright Side of the GDPR: Welfare-Improving Privacy Management II: A Firm with Small Data-Based Revenue Earns More Profit After the GDPRResearch Paper

Motivation

The European Union's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR, 2018) requires a firm to obtain a consumer's explicit consent before it collects personal data. The common expectation, in policy debate and in much of the empirical literature, is that consent requirements cost firms money: they shrink the pool of consumer data that can be monetized through advertising, personalization or resale. Choe, Matsushima and Shekhar (ISER Discussion Paper No. 1246, 2024; published as Management Science, 2025) build a monopoly pricing model in which consent creates a new purchase option. A consumer who would not have bought the service under compulsory data sharing can now buy it without sharing. They then ask how the firm's equilibrium price, profit and consumer surplus change.

This mission formalizes the paper's analytic profit result. If the firm's revenue is mostly usage based, meaning its revenue per unit of collected data is small, then the firm earns strictly more in equilibrium after the GDPR than before. The result is the source of the paper's title. Regulation that is usually read as a cost to firms raises the profit of one well-defined class of firms.

Setting

A monopolist sells an online service at zero marginal cost and sets a price p∈Rp\in\mathbb Rp∈R. Negative prices are allowed: they pay consumers to use the service. A consumer type is a pair (v,c)∈[0,1]2(v,c)\in[0,1]^2(v,c)∈[0,1]2, where vvv is the valuation of the service and ccc the privacy cost of sharing data. Types are independent and uniform on the unit square, so the mass of a set of consumers is its area. A consumer who shares data receives an opt-in benefit x∈(0,1)x\in(0,1)x∈(0,1). The utilities of opt-in purchase (buy and share) and opt-out purchase (buy without sharing) are

US(v,c)=v+(x−c)−p,UN(v,c)=v−p.U_S(v,c)=v+(x-c)-p,\qquad U_N(v,c)=v-p .US​(v,c)=v+(x−c)−p,UN​(v,c)=v−p.

The firm earns data revenue α≥0\alpha\ge0α≥0 per unit of collected data. Its profit is Π=pD+αDS\Pi=pD+\alpha D_SΠ=pD+αDS​, where DDD is total demand and DSD_SDS​ the mass of consumers who share data.

  • Before the GDPR opt-out purchase is unavailable. A consumer buys, and shares, iff US≥0U_S\ge0US​≥0. The demand D^(p)\widehat D(p)D(p) is the area of {(v,c)∈[0,1]2:US≥0}\{(v,c)\in[0,1]^2: U_S\ge 0\}{(v,c)∈[0,1]2:US​≥0}, and the profit is Π^(p)=(p+α)D^(p)\widehat\Pi(p)=(p+\alpha)\widehat D(p)Π(p)=(p+α)D(p).
  • After the GDPR the opt-in buyers are {(v,c)∈[0,1]2:c≤v+x−p, c≤x}\{(v,c)\in[0,1]^2 : c\le v+x-p,\ c\le x\}{(v,c)∈[0,1]2:c≤v+x−p, c≤x} and the opt-out buyers are {(v,c)∈[0,1]2:v≥p, c>x}\{(v,c)\in[0,1]^2: v\ge p,\ c>x\}{(v,c)∈[0,1]2:v≥p, c>x}. Their areas are D~S(p)\widetilde D_S(p)DS​(p) and D~N(p)\widetilde D_N(p)DN​(p), and the profit is Π~(p)=p(D~S(p)+D~N(p))+αD~S(p)\widetilde\Pi(p)=p(\widetilde D_S(p)+\widetilde D_N(p))+\alpha\widetilde D_S(p)Π(p)=p(DS​(p)+DN​(p))+αDS​(p).

An equilibrium price is a global maximizer of the profit over p∈Rp\in\mathbb Rp∈R: the firm moves first and consumers respond. The paper's thresholds are

α1(x)=max⁡{1−2x2,0},α2(x)=max⁡{2−4x+x22x,0}.\alpha_1(x)=\max\Big\{\frac{1-2x}{2},0\Big\},\qquad \alpha_2(x)=\max\Big\{\frac{2-4x+x^2}{2x},0\Big\}.α1​(x)=max{21−2x​,0},α2​(x)=max{2x2−4x+x2​,0}.

"Case 1a" (before) and "case 2a" (after) are the equilibria with x<p⋆<1+xx<p^\star<1+xx<p⋆<1+x, in which low-valuation consumers stay out of the market.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition A3, first bullet (p. 34)

If α<α1(x)\alpha<\alpha_1(x)α<α1​(x), both profit functions attain their maxima over R\mathbb RR, and

max⁡p∈RΠ~(p)  >  max⁡p∈RΠ^(p),\max_{p\in\mathbb R}\widetilde\Pi(p)\;>\;\max_{p\in\mathbb R}\widehat\Pi(p),p∈Rmax​Π(p)>p∈Rmax​Π(p),

that is, Π~2a⋆>Π^1a⋆\widetilde\Pi^\star_{2a}>\widehat\Pi^\star_{1a}Π2a⋆​>Π1a⋆​. The hypothesis forces x<1/2x<1/2x<1/2, because α≥0\alpha\ge0α≥0.

Milestones

  1. Lemma A3, first bullet (p. 33): for x≤1/2x\le 1/2x≤1/2 and α<α1(x)\alpha<\alpha_1(x)α<α1​(x), every equilibrium price before the GDPR lies in (x,1+x)(x,1+x)(x,1+x) (case 1a), and so does every equilibrium price after it (case 2a).
  2. Equilibrium profit before the GDPR (p. 31): for α<α1(x)\alpha<\alpha_1(x)α<α1​(x), Π^⋆=2(1+x+α)3/27\widehat\Pi^\star=2(1+x+\alpha)^3/27Π⋆=2(1+x+α)3/27.
  3. Equilibrium profit after the GDPR (p. 32): for α<α2(x)\alpha<\alpha_2(x)α<α2​(x), Π~⋆=(4+4x(x+2α+2αx)+x2(x−2α)2)/16\widetilde\Pi^\star=\big(4+4x(x+2\alpha+2\alpha x)+x^2(x-2\alpha)^2\big)/16Π⋆=(4+4x(x+2α+2αx)+x2(x−2α)2)/16.
  4. Online Appendix §F, first display (OA p. 9): for α<α1(x)\alpha<\alpha_1(x)α<α1​(x), Π~⋆−Π^⋆=J(x,α)/432\widetilde\Pi^\star-\widehat\Pi^\star=J(x,\alpha)/432Π⋆−Π⋆=J(x,α)/432, with JJJ the explicit quartic polynomial printed there.
  5. Online Appendix §F, conclusion (OA p. 9): J(x,α)>0J(x,\alpha)>0J(x,α)>0 whenever 0<x<1/20<x<1/20<x<1/2 and 0≤α<(1−2x)/20\le\alpha<(1-2x)/20≤α<(1−2x)/2.

Significance

The result. Proposition A3 separates firms by revenue model. A firm whose revenue is mostly usage based gains from the GDPR. The opt-out option brings in consumers with high privacy costs who did not buy before, and this extra demand lets the firm both raise its price and sell to more consumers. Together these outweigh the lost data revenue. The other two bullets of Proposition A3 treat firms with larger α\alphaα, for which the comparison can go either way. Their thresholds α5(x)\alpha_5(x)α5​(x) and α6(x)\alpha_6(x)α6​(x) are defined only as "the value of α\alphaα that solves" an equation, with existence and uniqueness shown in plots, so they are not posed here. The paper's Propositions 1–4 are its main-text results at x=1/4x=1/4x=1/4. The price comparison (Proposition 1) is the x=1/4x=1/4x=1/4 instance of the general Proposition A1, the subject of the sibling mission in this series. Propositions 2–4, A2, A3 (bullets 2–3) and A4 rest on numerically located thresholds and are not posed.

Formalizing it. The paper's proof is in print, but no part of it has been machine-checked. The model is fully explicit (a uniform distribution, two areas, two profit functions on R\mathbb RR), so a complete formal proof would certify every link from the primitives to the inequality. That covers the computation of the polygon areas, the global maximization of a piecewise polynomial over all real prices, and the final polynomial inequality. The printed proof of the last step contains a slip: the value it gives for "J(x,α1(x))J(x,\alpha_1(x))J(x,α1​(x))" is the value of J/432J/432J/432. A formalization fixes such details for good.

Difficulty

The closed forms are easy to verify once the equilibrium is known to be interior to case 1a and case 2a. The work lies elsewhere. Computing the demands requires the Lebesgue area of a family of polygons whose shape changes with ppp. Over all of R\mathbb RR each demand is piecewise polynomial with several pieces, and the profits are piecewise cubic. Identifying the global maximizer means checking every piece, including negative prices before the GDPR and the corner pieces where demand saturates at 000 or 111. A first-order condition on one piece gives only a candidate. The comparison of the two maximal values then reduces to a two-variable quartic inequality on a triangle, which holds strictly on the open region but becomes tight at its corner x→0x\to0x→0, α→1/2\alpha\to1/2α→1/2, where J(0,1/2)=0J(0,1/2)=0J(0,1/2)=0.

Formalization scope

  • Model. One definitions file, GDPRPrivacy.PriceRise.Model, shared with the sibling mission on the equilibrium price. A type is q : ℝ × ℝ with q.1 = v and q.2 = c. Demands are (volume S).toReal for the explicit sets S⊆[0,1]2S\subseteq[0,1]^2S⊆[0,1]2 above, with the opt-in and opt-out sets of p. 13 copied literally. Ties are assigned to opt-in, which changes only null sets. The file also defines α1,α2,β,Γ\alpha_1,\alpha_2,\beta,\Gammaα1​,α2​,β,Γ.
  • Standing assumptions. Every theorem assumes 0<x<10<x<10<x<1 and α≥0\alpha\ge0α≥0 (§3, pp. 7–8). No other hypothesis is added. Milestone 1 keeps the paper's x≤1/2x\le 1/2x≤1/2, and milestone 5 keeps its printed region α<(1−2x)/2\alpha<(1-2x)/2α<(1−2x)/2, x<1/2x<1/2x<1/2.
  • Equilibria. An equilibrium price is any p with IsMaxOn (profitBefore x α) Set.univ p (respectively profitAfter). Every statement asserts that a maximizer exists and then quantifies over all maximizers.
  • Ruled-out trivializations. The goal compares the maximal values of the two model profit functions. It does not compare the closed forms 2(1+x+α)3/272(1+x+\alpha)^3/272(1+x+α)3/27 and Π~2a⋆\widetilde\Pi^\star_{2a}Π2a⋆​ (that is milestones 4–5 alone), it does not compare the profits at a common price, and it does not restrict the price range. The existence conjuncts prevent a vacuous "for every maximizer".
  • Needed infrastructure. Areas of polygons in R2\mathbb R^2R2 via MeasureTheory.volume (Fubini or regionBetween), maximization of piecewise polynomials on R\mathbb RR, and polynomial inequalities. Lemmas computing the area of {(v,c)∈[0,1]2:c≤v+t}\{(v,c)\in[0,1]^2: c\le v+t\}{(v,c)∈[0,1]2:c≤v+t} as a function of ttt are reusable for other uniform-type screening and pricing models. Contributions of such lemmas, and of the explicit demand formulas (4)–(6) of the paper, are welcome.

Selected references

  • C. Choe, N. Matsushima and S. Shekhar, The Bright Side of the GDPR: Welfare-Improving Privacy Management, ISER Discussion Paper No. 1246, Osaka University, June 2024. The artifact formalized here; theorem and page numbers refer to it.
  • C. Choe, N. Matsushima and S. Shekhar, The Bright Side of the GDPR: Welfare-Improving Privacy Management, Management Science, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.06653
  • S. P. Anderson and J. S. Gans, Platform Siphoning: Ad-Avoidance and Media Content, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 3(4), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.3.4.1
  • Regulation (EU) 2016/679 (General Data Protection Regulation), Official Journal of the European Union L 119, 2016. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2016/679/oj
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